Golf Forecast – Final Review
We have completed our five month trial of Golf Forecast and here are the final results (i.e. for the diversified algorithm):-
| Profit/Loss: | +713 points profit |
| Strike Rate: | 10% |
| Bank Growth: | 71% |
| ROI: | 23% |
| Average number of bets: | 20 bets per tournament |
| Cost: | £2.99 for first 7 days then £29.99 per month |
| VERDICT: | PASSED |
| Rating: |
You can view full results here. (please note you can see the results for the two approaches plus the past results in the tabs at the bottom of the spreadsheet)
Golf Forecast – Full Review
We originally reviewed golf betting system Golf Forecast around five years ago, when it received a passed rating after notching up an impressive 172 points profit in that original trial.
Golf Forecast is a little different from most golf services as it is not a “tipster” as such but instead finds its selections via an algorithm. This algorithm is based on the Shotlink data that compiles a huge array of stats on each player and the strengths and weaknesses of their game.
Where the bookies’ odds are significantly above what the algorithm says they should be based on that data, the player then becomes a bet.
The algorithm also apparently uses machine learning to update itself and improve in light of new data.
After our original review of Golf Forecast finished in 2016, we kept an eye on the service for the next few years, during which time it continued to compile impressive profits. So we initiated a re-review back in November 2019, wanting to take a closer look at the results again as it seemed to be performing consistently well.
Unfortunately though it struggled somewhat in that re-review, losing 280 points. Such are the ups-and-downs of traditional golf betting unfortunately.
However, they then introduced a new approach – namely their “diversified algorithm.”
This idea behind this is to spread your risk across more golfers, backing around 20 players per tournament rather than the traditional approach of backing 4-5 golfers per event.
Anyone who has bet on golf or followed a golf tipster for any length of time will be accustomed to the huge swings you can experience, with long losing runs followed by a big winner – if you’re lucky that is. It can be tough on the nerves and require a lot of patience, as well as a massive betting bank, to weather the lengthy drawdowns.
The aim of this new “diversified model” is to smooth out those peaks and troughs and provide more regular returns.
Here they explain the difference between their two models:-
In theory you might think the diversified model is more risky as you are backing more golfers, but if you are spreading your stake across them in such a way that you are actually betting the same amount as you would when backing just five golfers, then in fact it is less risky and should smooth out the ride.
For example, if you are risking £100 per tournament you spread this across 20 golfers, meaning on a few of them you are just risking £5-6 each. This is the staking used in our results spreadsheet.
This smoother ride is borne out by the long-term results, which as you can see from the graph below shows a pretty smooth profit graph, without the big ups and downs normally associated with golf betting:-
Anyway, we commenced a fresh review at the start of this year looking at both the new diversified algorithm and the old approach – dubbed the “ROI algorithm.”
In truth we were more interested in how the diversified algorithm got on as it is a new, innovative approach to gambling on the golf and we were eager to see if it really could smooth out the big ups and downs you normally get with golf betting.
We are pleased to say that after five months of following it, the diversified algorithm did as advertised and produced a very healthy – and steady – 713 points profit.
If following the £100 per tournament approach, that translated into a decent £713 profit and bank growth of over 70%.
Whilst the strike rate was still on the low side at 10%, the ride was much smoother and less bumpy. The ROI was also excellent at 23%.
So in terms of the diversified algorithm, we are happy to award it a PASSED rating and we really like this new, more measured approach to golf betting that is less of a roller-coaster.
In terms of the traditional ROI model, unfortunately that did not perform so well and lost 711 points, which on top of the 280 points lost the previous year, means quite a hefty overall loss so it is not a strategy we would recommend following.
Service Breakdown
Ease of use: As mentioned above, there are around 20 bets to place per tournament, so you have to set aside a fair amount of time to get the selections placed. You can either have the bets e-mailed to you or log in to the website to get them.
Availability of prices: We didn’t notice any particular issues with obtaining the recommended prices.
Strike rate: The strike rate for our trial was 10%, which is obviously low but it didn’t prevent a steady return during our trial. The long-term average is to produce a profit in every 2-3 events and in our trial there weren’t too many tournaments without a return of some kind at least.
Advised Betting Bank: In effect a 100 point bank betting bank is recommended for the diversified algorithm (or £1000 if betting £100 per tournament), which seems reasonable to us although a 150 point bank could be utilised to be on the safe side.
Subscription costs: The subscription costs at the time of writing are £2.99 for first 7 days then £29.99 per month.
OVERALL VERDICT: PASSED
Golf Forecast is a service we originally reviewed back in 2016 and gave a passed rating to after a successful trial. We took another look at the service more recently but unfortunately it made a substantial loss in that trial.
Recently though they have introduced a new strategy – called the “diversified algorithm” – which involves backing around 20 golfers per event and aims to smooth out the big ups and downs you normally see with golf betting.
We are pleased to report that it managed to achieve that aim during our trial, notching up 713 points profit over the course of five months at an excellent ROI of 23% and warranting a PASSED rating.
Their more traditional approach of backing 4-5 golfers per event made a loss though so we would recommend focusing on the diversified algorithm if you are going to follow this service.
That diversified strategy looks very promising to us as a means to smooth out the roller-coaster ride of golf betting and make it a much smoother and more enjoyable journey!
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Golf Forecast – Results Update
16th April 2021
It’s continued to be a mixed picture for Golf Forecast, with their diversified model having made £224 profit but the ROI model having lost £467 since our last update.
That means the diversified model is now £534 up but the ROI model is £617 down for our trial overall, so a net return of -£83.
You can view full results here. (please note you can see the results for the two approaches plus the past results in the tabs at the bottom of the spreadsheet)
Just to recap – the diversified model means spreading the risk across more golfers, backing around 20 players per tournament where as the ROI model means backing 4-5 golfers per event.
The aim of the diversified model is to smooth out the ups and downs of golf betting and it certainly seems to be doing that here, with steady progress made throughout our trial so far. That is looking like the model to follow at this point.
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Golf Forecast – Results Update
8th March 2021
It’s been somewhat of a mixed month for Golf Forecast, with their diversified model having made 14 points profit (or £140 to £10 stakes) but the ROI model having lost 39 points (or £390 to £10 stakes) since our last update.
That means the diversified model is now 31 points up but the ROI model is 15 points down for our trial overall, so a net return of +16 points.
You can view full results here. (please note you can see the results for the two approaches plus the past results in the tabs at the bottom of the spreadsheet)
Just to recap – the diversified model means spreading the risk across more golfers, backing around 20 players per tournament where as the ROI model means backing 4-5 golfers per event.
In theory you might think the diversified model is more risky as you are backing more golfers, but if you are spreading your stake across them in such a way that you are actually betting the same amount as you would backing just five golfers, then in fact is is less risky and should smooth out the ride.
We are seeing that play out already in our review and would expect it to be the case over the long term too.
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Golf Forecast – Results Update
1st February 2021
We are having something of a reboot of our review of Golf Forecast in 2021.
As you may recall, they didn’t perform too well during our trial last year losing 280 points, after having an excellent original trial back in 2016 when they made 172 points.
Such are the ups and downs of golf betting and having long losing runs followed by massive wins (or vice versa) are par for the course, if you’ll excuse the pun.
To counter this they have developed a new “diversified algorithm” which in layman’s terms means backing around 20 golfers per tournament rather than five.
The idea is to spread your stakes across a greater number of golfers to reduce the risk and produce a more consistent return.
At the same time they will still be running their previous model of backing 4-5 golfers per event – this is referred to as their “ROI algorithm” but is higher risk as we say and is more likely to have those big ups and downs.
There is a fuller explanation of the two approaches here:
So we are going to cover both approaches in 2021 and compare how they get on.
So far this year the results have been good for both, with the diversified model having made 17.5 points profit (or £174.70 to £10 stakes) and the ROI model making 24 points profit (or £241 to £10 stakes).
You can view full results here. (please note you can see the results for the two approaches plus the past results in the tabs at the bottom of the spreadsheet)
The main source of profits has been Harris English who won for both approaches at 30/1 and Kevin Na who won for the diversified approach at 60/1.
It will be interesting to see how that approach gets on and if it can smooth out some of the big swings normally seen with golf services.
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Golf Forecast – Results Update
21st October 2020
It’s been a tough time for Golf Forecast lately, with a loss of 67 points made since our last update a month ago.
That means they are now 280 points down for our trial overall.
You can view full results here.
They also have a separate strategy known as the “diversifying algorithm” (nothing to do with spread betting as we previously thought) which backs a lot more golfers each week (e.g. 15-20 per tournament). The idea is to reduce risk and smooth the curve as it were. We have been keeping an eye on that strategy and since it was introduced in mid-September it has made around 90 points profit, so quite a lot better than the main strategy.
Hopefully the main strategy can get back on track again soon – a big winner would certainly help!
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Golf Forecast – Results Update
21st October 2020
A bit of an improvement recently for Golf Forecast, with a profit of 21 points made since our last update a month ago.
With the previous losses however they are still 213 points down for our trial overall.