Best AI Football Predictions: What You Need to Know Before Trusting the Bots

Football fans and bettors alike are always on the lookout for an edge, and in recent years, AI has been touted as the next big thing in football predictions.

With the promise of analyzing vast amounts of data and spitting out accurate forecasts, AI-driven prediction platforms seem like the perfect tool for those looking to predict match outcomes.

But is AI really as good as it sounds?

Let’s dive into the world of AI football predictions, uncovering the best resources while also highlighting the limitations you need to keep in mind.

 

The Rise of AI in Football Predictions

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is making its mark in almost every industry, and football is no exception.

From FiveThirtyEight’s Soccer Power Index (SPI) to Kickoff AI, various platforms now use complex algorithms to predict the outcomes of football matches.

These models analyze a range of factors—such as team performance, player stats, historical data, and even weather conditions—to calculate the probabilities of different match results.

And even chat bots like Chat GPT are becoming quite sophisticated in the prediction game, providing insights to suggest possible outcomes, and highlight key players or trends to watch.

On paper, this sounds like a dream come true for anyone who loves football and wants to get ahead of the curve in betting or fantasy football.

But before you place all your trust in the machines, it’s important to understand that AI football predictions are still far from perfect.

 

The Reality: Few AI Sites with Verified Results

One of the biggest challenges in the world of AI football predictions is the lack of verified, consistently accurate results.

If you browse through the results on Google for “AI Football Predictions” you’ll find dozens of sites claiming to use AI to predict football matches accurately.

However, virtually none of those sites publish their full results, or even state the profit/loss from following their predictions – let alone have their results independently verified. 

Many AI prediction sites are new and may just be using the buzz around the term “AI” as a gimmick to try and generate interest in their picks. 

And while there are other sites that are genuinely using AI and might show promise, most of them still haven’t proven their long-term reliability.

For instance, FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is one of the more established models, and its predictions are often cited in the media.

However, even this model has its limitations and is not immune to unexpected results—like a star player getting injured or a team pulling off a surprise upset.

FiverThirtyEight also do not publish the profit/loss (P/L) that would be made from following their predictions, although they have published an analysis of the accuracy of their predictions, which found that “all our forecasts performed better than an unskilled forecast.”

So that does suggest some utility in their predictions, and they note that their political predictions, particularly in relation to US House of Representative races, tend to perform best. 

What is needed with sites like FiveThirtyEight and other prediction engines using AI is proper testing of whether they can generate a profit from backing their predictions, not just how accurate they are. 

A site could be 80% accurate in its predictions but still produce a loss from backing those predictions, as they may not be finding value in their predictions – or in other words, not finding instances of the odds being higher than they should be. 

Until this happens, the bottom line is that while AI offers exciting potential, there are currently very few AI prediction sites with results that are both consistent and verified. So it’s crucial to approach these tools with caution.

However, fortunately there are a small number of sites utilising AI that do have verified results and have shown an ability to make a profit.  

We’ll take a look at those now.

 

Best AI Football Predictions

While the world of AI football predictions is still evolving, as we say there are a few platforms that have gained recognition for their innovative approaches and promising results.

Here’s a closer look at three of the best AI football prediction sites with both published P/L records and verified results:

 

3. Mercurius Tradr

• Website: Mercurius Tradr

Mercurius Tradr is an AI-driven platform that focuses on providing sophisticated betting strategies by analyzing historical data and market trends.

Mercurius’s AI analyses over 20,000 data points in a football match so their machine learning algorithms can understand the real attacking and defensive strength of a team. 

It includes everything from corners to where shots were taken from and the chances of scoring a goal from the position the shot was taken – much like xG but with many more data points.

These ratings are then used by Mercurius’s mathematical models to forecast the probabilities of the most likely outcome of a match, and hence its fair odds.

Mercurius Tradr’s AI managed to produce a return on investment of 2% over 1436 bets.

However, it was then acquired by a European fintech company who took the program private so it is not available to the public at the moment. 

It shows the power of Mercurius’s model though and the kind of use AI can be put to with the aim of generating an edge in football, which the fintech company who bought it clearly realised. 

If Mercurius does become available to the public again, we will keep you posted.

 

2. WinnerOdds

• Website: WinnerOdds

WinnerOdds is an AI-powered tool designed to help bettors identify value bets in football (and other sports).

The AI analyses a database of more than one million matches, over nine thousand teams, odds from 10 different bookmakers and about 50m records of odds.

It then calculates what the odds for a match should be and compares them to the odds from various bookies. 

WinnerOdds seeks to find bets where the odds are higher than they should be, and are therefore in favour of the bettor.

It then alerts users when these opportunities arise, noting which bookies to use and the relevant stake based on the user’s stated betting bank. 

The results to date have been very impressive, with over €7,400 profit made at €10 per point, generated at a return on investment of 7% and with a strike rate of 54%. 

The platform emphasizes transparency, offering users detailed performance reports and historical data.

At the moment the football platform is closed to new users, although there is a waiting list available.

Alternatively WinnerOdds also have a tennis platform which is open to new users and has made over €156,000 in total to €10 stakes. 

 

1. Predictology

• Website: Predictology

Predictology is a comprehensive football prediction platform that leverages AI and machine learning to offer detailed predictions and betting insights.

The platform uses a database containing over 350,000 football matches worldwide to create and refine profitable football strategies.

It provides users with a wide range of tools, including statistical models, betting strategies, and real-time match data.

Predictology’s strength lies in its versatility, catering to both novice and experienced bettors. There are pre-designed systems for members to use or you can create your own. 

During our own live trial of Predictology, we followed the pre-designed strategies with daily selections sent to us via email and the results were very impressive.

The strategies yielded 38 points in profit with a strong win rate of 52%.

Predictology also has automation options (at an additional cost), enabling users to set up and run systems effortlessly.

It is one of the more impressive uses of AI technology to generate football predictions we have seen and has a verified track record of success. 

Why AI Is Still in Its Infancy

AI is undoubtedly powerful, but when it comes to predicting football matches, it’s still in its early stages.

Football is an incredibly dynamic sport, and the outcome of a match can be influenced by countless variables.

While AI models excel at processing historical data and identifying patterns, they often struggle to account for real-time factors that can drastically impact a game.

For example, team news, such as last-minute injuries or tactical changes, can completely alter the course of a match.

A star player getting injured during warm-ups, a sudden change in weather conditions, or even the emotional state of a team following a recent victory or loss are factors that are hard for AI to predict with precision.

This is why AI predictions should be seen as just one piece of the puzzle rather than a definitive answer.

They can provide valuable insights, but they’re not foolproof.

 

The Future: AI’s Potential in Football Predictions

Despite its current limitations, AI’s role in football predictions is likely to grow in the coming years.

As technology advances and more data becomes available, AI models will likely improve in their ability to account for the nuances of the game.

Some platforms are already working on integrating real-time data, such as live match statistics and breaking news, to refine their predictions.

Imagine a future where AI can instantly adjust its predictions based on a key player being ruled out minutes before kick-off or react to a sudden change in weather conditions that could affect play.

As these technologies develop, we could see AI predictions becoming more accurate and reliable.

The question would then be: would bookmakers not have their own AI models that would be just as accurate, effectively producing the same odds for matches as an AI prediction website?

Well, that is certainly a possibility. Bookies are probably already developing their own AI and it should be expected they will end up with sophisticated models.

It might then become a “battle of the AIs” to see which is better – the bookies’ or the bettors’ AI.

At this stage it is just speculation as to what will happen, but whatever lies in store in the future regarding AI football predictions, it should certainly be interesting to watch. 

 

Conclusion – Treat AI Predictions with Caution

For now, it’s important to treat AI football predictions that don’t have an independently verified track-record with a healthy dose of skepticism. 

There are many sites out there that are probably just jumping on the AI bandwagon and hoping to cash in on the buzz around it. 

If they don’t even tell you whether their predictions have produced a profit – let alone give you a full breakdown of their P/L and an independent source of verification, then it is right to be cautious about these sites. 

In conclusion, while AI football predictions offer exciting possibilities, they are still very much a work in progress.

There are a few platforms such as those listed above with verified, consistent results, and they show much promise.  

As to how AI develops in future in terms of its ability to predict football matches, only time will tell.

Just remember: the beautiful game is called unpredictable for a reason, so it may be that AI never quite cracks it.

For the traditionalists among us who like the human skill in predicting the outcome of a game, let’s hope so!