Best Home Teams to Win

Home advantage is one of football’s most intriguing and decisive elements.

The roar of the crowd, the familiarity of the pitch, and the comfort of home surroundings can transform teams into formidable opponents on their own turf.

This phenomenon often spells the difference between title contenders and mid-table mediocrity.

In this article, we explore the fortress-like home grounds across Europe’s top leagues and from around the world.

From the electric atmosphere of Anfield to the passionate fanbase of St James’ Park, discover the teams that turn their home stadiums into bastions of victory.

We’ll uncover the secrets of home dominance and how you can leverage this knowledge for smarter betting choices.

Which team would have generated over 50 points profit from backing them at home over the past few seasons?

Which team would have made you a profit from backing them in all their homes game for each of the last eight seasons?

Read on to find out.

Premier League

The Premier League, often touted as the most competitive football league in the world, features some of the most daunting home grounds.

Teams like Liverpool and Manchester City have leveraged their home stadiums to create intimidating atmospheres that are challenging for any visiting team.

Anfield, with its storied history and passionate fanbase, and the Etihad Stadium, which has become a fortress under Pep Guardiola, are just two examples of how home advantage can be a critical factor in a team’s success.

However, as we shall discover, Liverpool and Man City are not necessarily the best value teams to back at home and there are better options to consider if we want to maximise our betting profits from backing teams at home.

Most Wins: Liverpool

Anfield is synonymous with an electrifying atmosphere, especially on big European nights.

Liverpool have harnessed this energy to create one of the most formidable home records in the Premier League.

The famous Kop end, along with the team’s high-pressing game and relentless attacking, makes it extremely challenging for visiting teams.

The psychological pressure of playing at Anfield, where history and passion intertwine, often overwhelms opponents.

Liverpool were the best home team in the Premier League in the 2023-24 season, with a record of:

Played: 19
Won: 15
Drew: 3
Lost: 1

That gave them a total of 48 points at home for the season.

Liverpool were also the best home team in the 2021-22 season.

Manchester City

Manchester City’s dominance at the Etihad Stadium has been a cornerstone of their recent success.

Under Pep Guardiola, City has turned their home ground into a fortress.

The team’s attacking prowess, combined with tactical astuteness and depth in squad quality, makes them almost invincible at home.

Their ability to break down defensive teams and maintain possession at home is unparalleled, often leading to significant goal margins and consistent victories.

Manchester City finished top of the home table in the 2022-23 season:

Played: 19
Won: 17
Drew: 1
Lost: 1

So a pretty formidable record there and they were second to Liverpool in the home table in the 2023-24 season.

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Most Profitable Teams to Back at Home

Being the strongest team at home doesn’t mean they are also the most profitable however.

Sides live Liverpool and Manchester City will normally be very short odds at home – other than when they play each other or the likes of Arsenal of course.

Punters are well aware of their home dominance and will bet on them heavily, meaning it will not necessarily be profitable to back Liverpool and Man City at home.

In terms of the best teams to back at home, it is a better idea to look at sides that are a little more under-the-radar and can offer better value when playing at their home ground.

Let’s have a look at some of the most profitable teams to back at home over the last few seasons.

(Please note all P/L figures quoted are based on the Pinnacle starting price odds).

Tottenham Hotspur

Tottenham Hotspur, with their state-of-the-art Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, have established a significant home advantage.

Players like Son Heung-min, James Maddison and Pedro Porro seem to thrive at home and the team has found a way to produce good attacking football in front of their home fans.

Backing Spurs for one point in every home game would have produced a profit in each of the last four seasons, with a profit per season of:

2023-24: +5 points
2022-23: +2 points
2021-22: +5 points
2020-21: +8 points

Overall Spurs have produced a profit at home in seven of the last eight seasons, making them one of the best Premier League to bet on at home over that period.

Newcastle United

Newcastle United, known for their passionate fanbase and historic home ground, St James’ Park, has become a formidable force at home in recent seasons.

With an injection of funds coming after the takeover by the Saudi PIF (Public Investment Fund) in 2021, they are now regularly competing at the top end of the Premier League.

Newcastle’s home record over the last few seasons has been impressive, although not quite as consistent as Tottenham’s:

2023-24: +0.5 points
2022-23: +10 points
2021-22: -10 points
2020-21: +0.1 points
2019-20: +20 points

They had a stand-out season in 2019-20 with a profit of 20 points made at home, although it has been a little up and down since then.

Bundesliga

Whilst you would traditionally think of teams like Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund being the best to back at home in Germany, they are typically at prohibitively short odds at home and backing them does not actually generate much of a profit.

Again it is better to look at teams who are more under-the-radar, but have made their home grounds into fortresses in the last few seasons and have churned out good returns.

Union Berlin

Since being promoted to the Bundesliga in the 2019 season, Union Berlin have been a formidable force at home.

Built on a rock-solid defence, they have been very hard to beat at the Stadion An der Alten Försterei over the last few seasons.

That has produced a profit from backing them in home games in each of the last five seasons:

2023-24: +2 points
2022-23: +9 points
2021-22: +7 points
2020-21: +2 points
2019-20: +13 points

That profit last season came despite them having quite a poor season overall, finishing 15th in the Bundesliga table.

Union Berlin still managed seven home wins which produced a small profit on the season overall.

Borussia Monchengladbach

Another example of a team who have produced stellar returns at home is Borussia Monchengladbach.

Although they are not adorned with household names, they have a passionate fanbase at the Borussia-Park and are a well organised unit.

Their returns over the last few seasons have been very consistent, with profits from backing them at home of:

2023-24: +3 points
2022-23: +8 points
2021-22: +5 points
2020-21: -2 points
2019-20: +2 points

Going back further, backing Gladbach at home in every game would have made a profit in seven of the last eight seasons and produced one of the highest overall returns across the major European leagues.

Freiburg

SC Freiburg, known for their resilient and hardworking style of play, has developed a significant home advantage at the Europa-Park Stadion.

SC Freiburg’s strength at home is built on passionate fan support, a strong community connection, solid recent form, disciplined tactical approach, successful youth integration and defensive solidity.

These elements make the Europa-Park Stadion a challenging venue for any visiting team.

The returns from backing Freiburg at home over the past eight seasons has been impressive:

2023-24: -1 point
2022-23: +1 point
2021-22: +7 points
2020-21: +4 points
2019-20: +6 points
2018-19: +5 points
2017-18: +5 points
2016-17: +10 points

In total that’s 35 points profit from backing Freiburg at home over the last eight seasons, a very impressive return indeed.

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Other Notable Home Teams to Back at Home

There are a number of other teams around the world who have produced very strong home returns over recent years.

These teams – along with their net profit over the last eight seasons – include:

Plymouth Argyle: +50 points
Granada: +46 points
Nice: +39 points
Levante: +33 points
Maritimo: +28 points
Philadelphia Union: +25 points
Degerfors: +24 points

Whilst these might not be the most glamorous clubs or those people immediately think of when picking teams to back at home, they have produced strong records and are worth consideration on your betting coupon.

How to Research Home Teams to Back

We have had a look at some of the best teams in the world to bet on at home over the last few seasons, but that should just be a starting point for your research.

Before placing any bets, it is advisable to delve deeper into the form and other factors around a fixture.

Here are some key strategies to consider:

Historical Performance:
- Examine a team’s home performance over several seasons to identify consistent trends. A team that consistently performs well at home is a safer bet than one that has sporadic successes.
- Pay attention to metrics like win rate, average goals scored, and goals conceded at home.
Strength of Opposition:
- Evaluate how a team performs against different tiers of opponents when playing at home. Some teams may excel against mid-table or lower-tier teams but struggle against top-tier opposition.
- Look at head-to-head records, particularly at home, to get a sense of how they have fared against specific teams.
Fan Support and Stadium Atmosphere:
- Consider the impact of the fanbase. Teams with passionate and vocal supporters often perform better at home due to the intimidating atmosphere created.
- Research any notable characteristics of the stadium itself, such as pitch size or surface, that may give the home team an advantage.
Injury and Suspension Reports:
- Stay updated on the team’s current squad status. Key players missing due to injuries or suspensions can significantly affect a team’s home performance.
- Consider the depth of the squad and how well the team can cope with absences.
Managerial Tactics and Strategy:
- Analyze the manager’s home game tactics. Some managers are particularly adept at setting up their teams to exploit home advantage.
- Review past matches and tactical analyses to understand the team’s approach to home games.
Psychological Factors:
- Understand the psychological comfort and confidence a team gains from playing at home. Teams often feel more relaxed and perform better in familiar surroundings.
- Look for quotes from players and coaches that indicate the importance they place on home games.
Statistical Tools and Models:
- Utilize advanced statistical tools and models that provide deeper insights into home performance metrics. Websites like Opta, WhoScored, and Transfermarkt offer comprehensive data.
- Consider expected goals (xG) metrics to get a sense of the quality of chances created and conceded by the home team.
Market Odds and Betting Patterns:
- Analyze the betting odds and market movements. Sometimes, the odds reflect the market’s view on a team’s home advantage.
- Look for value bets where the odds might not fully reflect the team’s home strength due to recent away performances or other factors.

By combining these strategies, you can gain a comprehensive understanding of a team’s home performance and make more informed decisions when backing home teams.

This multi-faceted approach ensures that you consider both qualitative and quantitative factors, enhancing your chances of identifying profitable betting opportunities.

Conclusion – Finding the Best Home Teams to Win

Home advantage in football is a significant aspect that can often tip the scales in favour of the home team.

From the electrifying atmosphere of Anfield to the fortress of the Etihad, the top teams in leagues like the Premier League, Bundesliga, and others have shown how critical home performance can be.

By researching and understanding the nuances of each team’s home advantage, bettors can make more informed decisions and potentially uncover profitable opportunities.

Remember, while top teams might dominate at home, the real value often lies in identifying consistent, under-the-radar teams that offer better odds and returns.

Finding these teams and backing them, after conducting further research to ensure they are a value bet, can yield strong results over time.

Good luck with your betting and please remember to always gamble responsibly.

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