The Value Machine – Final Review
We have reached the end of our three month trial of The Value Machine and here are the final results:-
| Profit/loss: | -14 points |
| Strike Rate: | 14% |
| Bank Growth: | -6% |
| Cost: | £7 for first 14 days then £57/month or £147/quarter |
| ROI: | -1% |
| Average number of bets: | 12 per day |
| VERDICT: | NEUTRAL |
| Rating: |
You can view full results here.
The Value Machine – Full Review
The Value Machine is a piece of software that finds value bets for horse racing.
It does this by looking for instances where the bookies’ price for a horse is above that on Betfair. As Betfair has been shown in numerous studies to be a perfect market – i.e. to predict accurately the chances of a given horse winning, then in these instances the bookies must be wrong.
The software is very easy to use. You just open it up, click on the afternoon or evening’s selections and they are produced instantly for you.
Then it is just a case of placing the selections, which can take a bit of time as there are on average over 10 selections per day.
We had high hopes for this coming into our trial, as the system on which it is based – the Morning Value Service – had amassed over 3,500 points of profit over five years.
And certainly the logic to it seems sound.
However, unfortunately over our trial, we made a loss of 14 points to the best available bookies price.
That was over the course of more than 1100 bets, so a massive sample size!
At Betfair SP, the results were worse, with a 45 point loss being made.
And taking the best available Betfair price at the time selections were generated did not seem like a tenable option, as that made a 66 point loss over the trial.
It was disappointing to have made a loss, but of course it may just have been that we hit it at a bad time. Indeed, early on in the trial we went over 100 points up, so clearly there is potential here.
You can see how things went in the profit graph below:
As you can see, we were in profit for most of the trial but went on a huge losing streak towards the end, dropping over 100 points.
However, more worrying for us is the actual viability of this system.
During the trial, we had our Stan James account closed, which we had for over 10 years and had not even been limited before.
We also had another account limited, which was frustrating.
This problem did not seem limited to us either, as we were contacted by other users who said they had lost bookie accounts when using this.
It is possible that the bookies see people who are using this as arbers, as in theory when the Betfair price is above the bookies’, it could be an opportunity to arb.
Or perhaps they just someone who is exploiting value.
Either way, the bookies really don’t seem to like this and that presents a significant problem for users.
There are of course always steps you can take to try and keep your bookie accounts open, but it is not an ideal situation.
So overall, unfortunately we are not able to recommend The Value Machine at this time and award it a NEUTRAL rating.
Service Breakdown
Ease of use: There are a large number of bets to place, so you do have to allocate some time to placing the bets, say around 20-30 minutes per day.
Availability of prices: As mentioned above, this is a big concern. A fair proportion of the bets come from just one bookie and it often Stan James. However, Stan James are likely to close your account if you place lots of these bets with them. Using Betfair SP does not appear, on the basis of our trial, to be a viable angle to long-term profit. So you may have to make do long term with taking with taking slightly less than the best available price in some instances.
Strike rate: The strike rate for the trial was low at just 14%, which is quite a bit below what is stated on the website, i.e. 17%.
Advised Betting Bank: A 250 point betting bank is advised, which we think is about right. From the high to low, we experienced around a 120 point drawdown, so about half the bank. Anything less than a 200 point bank would be at risk of going bust.
Subscription costs: The subscription costs are £7 for the first 14 days then £57 per month or £147 per quarter.
OVERALL VERDICT: NEUTRAL
We had high hopes coming into our trial of The Value Machine and early on it looked like those hopes were being richly fulfilled, as we went over 100 points up.
Sadly though, a slide then set in and we ended up 14 points down at best available prices.
That was disappointing, but what was more worrying was that we had bookie accounts closed as a result of placing these bets, one of which we had held for over 10 years. We also received reports from other users of the same thing.
The bookies are likely to think you are either arbing or exploiting prices at least, so you are at risk of losing accounts when using this system.
We may well have just hit this at a bad time and no doubt results will pick up for them over time. Indeed, we think the logic of the system is sound.
However, with slight concerns over bookie account closures, we think a NEUTRAL rating is the only fair verdict here.
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The Value Machine – Results Update
13th December 2016
The tough times continue for The Value Machine, with a further 36 points lost since our last update.
That means the totals for the trial to date are:
- Bookies Price Taken: +34 points
- Betfair Price Taken: -17 points
- Betfair SP: +19 points
You can view full results here.
So we have lost a large portion of the substantial profit we had build up earlier in the trial and the recent slide has been a little troubling to say the least.
But hopefully things will turn around shortly and we will be back to winning ways. It can’t come soon enough!
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The Value Machine – Results Update
24th November 2016
A very tough run for The Value Machine since our last update, with 40 points lost at advised prices.
That means the totals for the trial to date are:
- Bookies Price Taken: +70 points
- Betfair Price Taken: +22 points
- Betfair SP: +57 points
You can view full results here.
It’s been a very up and down trial, with some great runs followed by some long losing streaks. However, being 70 points up is still very good going, so we have to take the rough with the smooth and look at the bigger picture here.
Talking of pictures, the other one that is emerging here is that taking the best available Betfair price when selections are generated is not a good option, with it now being nearly 50 points behind the advised prices.
So it seems that if you want to use Betfair, then using Betfair SP is a much better option.
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The Value Machine – Results Update
24th November 2016
More fantastic profits for The Value Machine over the last week.
We have gained another 41 points profit at advised prices since our last update.
That means the totals for the trial to date are:
- Bookies Price Taken: +110 points
- Betfair Price Taken: +71 points
- Betfair SP: +94 points
You can view full results here.
We had high hopes for the Value Machine coming into our trial and it has certainly not disappointed. The results have been superb and one of the best trials we have seen here at Honest Betting Reviews.
Let’s just hope they open it up soon to all those members who want to join.
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The Value Machine – Results Update
15th November 2016
There has been an improvement for The Value Machine – a piece of software for betting on the horses – since our last update a couple of weeks ago, with 19 points profit made at advised prices.
That means the totals for the trial to date are:
- Bookies Price Taken: +69 points
- Betfair Price Taken: +39 points
- Betfair SP: +53 points
You can view full results here.
So still ticking along nicely at about the half way point of our trial.
Back soon with more updates.
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The Value Machine – Results Update
1st November 2016
The downtrend has continued unfortunately for The Value Machine over the last week, with another 10 points lost at advised prices.
Overall though things have still been very good, with a month’s worth of bets now accumulated.
Here are the totals for the trial so far:
- Bookies Price Taken: +50 points
- Betfair Price Taken: +24 points
- Betfair SP: +41 points
You can view full results here.
The best price available at the bookies is still leading the pack at 50 points up, followed by BSP at 41 points up and the Betfair price at the time of the selection coming in last at 24 points up.
An excellent first month overall, let’s hope for more of the same over the rest of the trial.
Another warning though that there is a real risk you will have bookie accounts closed if you use this – we have had reports of this from a few members.
Kieran says he is going to put up a section on the Value Machine website about keeping bookie accounts open, so watch out for that.
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The Value Machine – Results Update
24th October 2016
There has been something of a correction for The Value Machine since our last update a week ago.
They have dropped 23 points at advised prices, which was perhaps due as things couldn’t really have gone on in the same incredible way they started.
But overall things have still gone very well so far. Here are the updated totals:-
- Bookies Price Taken: +59 points
- Betfair Price Taken: +41 points
- Betfair SP: +48 points
You can view full results here.
One significant thing to mention however is that we were contacted by a member this week who said his Stan