Champions League Odds at the Start of the Season: A Betting Guide

The Champions League is the biggest prize in club football. Every year the top teams in Europe go head to head and as punters we get to predict who will win it.

Knowing the odds at the start of the season enables us to reflect on how much they’ve shifted as the season has progressed.

Which teams have seen their odds lengthen, and which have shortened since the season began?

Who was the favourite at the outset, and do they still represent good value now?

These are the kinds of questions we can address once we have a clear picture of the opening odds.

Examining the initial odds for this season can also provide hints about what to expect at the start of next season, offering an opportunity to identify value bets ahead of the crowd.

In this piece we’ll look back at the Champions League odds at the beginning of the season, revealing who the favourites and the dark horses were and how to make the most of your bets now that we are well into the Champions League campaign.

Why Do Start of the Season Odds Matter?

The bookmakers’ early odds are the product of extensive analysis by oddsmakers. These odds encapsulate their predictions on which teams are likely to excel, which might struggle, and where potential value lies.

They encompass a variety of markets, ranging from the winners, to who will reach the final to top goalscorer bets.

For bettors, these opening odds often present the best opportunity to place long-term wagers based on their season forecasts.

Since early-season odds factor in speculative elements such as new teams to the competition or high-profile signings, they offer a chance to identify value before the odds adjust as the season unfolds.

What were the Odds at the Start of the Season?

When it comes to Champions League betting, the big boys of European football topped the odds at the start of the season – as you would expect.

Here were the odds at the start of the season on 29th August 2024, after the qualifying rounds were completed but before the Champions League proper kicked off:

Man City: 5/2
Real Madrid: 7/2
Arsenal: 10/1
Bayern Munich: 12/1
Liverpool: 14/1
Barcelona: 16/1
PSG: 20/1
Inter Milan: 25/1
Bayer Leverkusen: 28/1
Athletico Madrid: 33/1
Borussia Dortmund: 40/1
Atalanta: 50/1
AC Milan: 50/1
Aston Villa: 66/1

So the odds have changed quite a bit since the start of the season – with Liverpool moving into favouritism following a strong run of form in the league phase, whilst Man City and Real Madrid have drifted out considerably after struggling for form and now facing a tougher run through the competition.

Arsenal and Barcelona have seen their odds shorten after solid campaigns so far that have them sitting towards the top of the league and poised to qualify for the knockout rounds without needing to go through the playoffs.

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Main Markets at the Start of the Season

In addition to the Outright market, there are other main markets bettors usually like to consider at the start of the season:

Top Scorer – Who will win the Champions League Golden Boot?
To Reach the Final – Which teams will go all the way to the final of the Champions League?
Top Assists – Who will create the most assists in this season’s Champions League?
League Stage Winner – Which team will win the new League stage of the Champions League?
Nationality of Winner – Which nation will the winner of the Champions League come from?

Each market has its own variables with the odds reflecting team and player strength, schedule and historical performance.

Factors to Consider

At the start of the season Champions League odds are influenced by:

Squad Strength: Teams with depth and talent in their squad tend to be favourites. Injuries and transfers can have a big impact on the odds however.
Managerial Experience: A manager with European pedigree can improve a team’s chances.
Historical Record: Some teams like Real Madrid and Liverpool have strong European pedigrees meaning they often over-perform in the Champions League relative to expectations.
Domestic Form: Teams in good form in their domestic leagues often carry that into the Champions League.

Champions League Betting Tips

If you’re betting on the Champions League here are some tips:

Get Value

Instead of just backing the favourites look for teams with longer odds that can surprise. Dark horses like Bayer Leverkusen or Inter Milan could be great value if they overachieve.

Each-Way Bets

Each-way bets are a good option in the Champions League. This type of bet means you can win if your team reaches the final but doesn’t win.

Follow Transfers and Injuries

The transfer window and early season injuries can have a big impact on a team’s chances. Keep up to date with squad changes to make informed bets.

Compare Odds

Different bookmakers offer different odds so shop around to get the best value. Odds comparison websites will save you time and get you more returns.

Long Term Bets vs In-Season Adjustments

When it comes to the Champions League there are two main approaches: long term bets at the start of the season and in-season adjustments based on form and results.

Both have their merits and can work together in a good betting strategy.

Long Term Bets: These are placed before the season starts or in the early stages. They are based on pre-season research and offer more value if you can find teams that will outperform. For example Liverpool’s odds at the start of the season were great value if you believed in them.
In-Season Adjustments: As the season unfolds the odds adjust to team performances, injuries etc. This is the time to reassess your positions and take advantage of new betting opportunities. For example if a favourite like Paris Saint-Germain or Real Madrid struggle in the league phase their odds will lengthen and might be value if you think they will turn it around.

Combining these approaches allows you to balance the speculation of long term bets with the informed decisions that come from seeing teams in action.

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Champions League Betting Trends

Over the years some trends have emerged:

Favourites Win: Teams with shorter odds at the start of the season like Manchester City and Real Madrid often make it to the latter stages and the favourites have dominated the competition in recent years.
Upsets Happen: Despite favourites dominating the odds there’s always a chance of an upset. Teams like Porto (2004) and Chelsea (2012) have won the competition from long odds.
Home Advantage Counts: Teams with good home form in the group stages often build momentum for the knockout stages.

Looking Ahead: What This Means for Next Season

Examining the starting odds for this season can also provide hints about what to expect at the start of next season. For example:

Successful Teams: Teams that performed well this season are likely to have shorter odds next time around, potentially offering less value.
Emerging Contenders: Clubs like Liverpool might start with more respect from bookmakers, making early bets on them less lucrative.
Underperformers: Teams that underachieved, such as Manchester City and Real Madrid, could present value if you believe they’ll bounce back.

By analysing this season’s odds and outcomes, you can position yourself to make smarter, more informed bets when the next campaign begins.

Conclusion

The Champions League odds at the start of the season offer a fascinating lens through which to view the tournament.

By reflecting on how these odds have evolved, bettors can gain valuable insights into market dynamics and team performance.

So, favourite or underdog, the Champions League will be drama, excitement and value. Who will win?

We’ll see, but it’s going to be fun either way!