Premier League Odds at the Start of the Season: A Betting Guide

Every season the Premier League starts with a buzz, as fans wait to see how the teams will do and pundits dissect player signings, manager changes and team make-ups.

Once the season gets underway though, so much changes and the Premier League betting fluctuates dramatically. Knowing what the odds were at the start of the season allows us to look back and asses how much they’ve changed over the season so far.

Which teams have drifted and which have fallen in odds since the season started? Who was the favourite at the start of the season? And are they still value now?

These are all questions we can start to answer once we know what the odds were at the start of the season.

Looking at the starting odds for this season can also give us clues for what the odds might be at the start of next season, if we are thinking ahead and trying to get some value ahead of other punters.

Why Do Start of the Season Odds Matter?

The bookmakers’ start of the season odds are the result of lots of analysis by the oddsmakers. These odds are a summary of who they think will do well, who will struggle and where the value is.

They cover a range of markets from Premier League title odds to relegation chances, top four finishes and even top scorer bets.

For bettors these odds can be the best time to place long term bets on their season predictions.

Since start of the season odds include speculative elements (newly promoted teams, big club signings) there’s room to find value and place bets before the odds contract during the season.

Looking at the Start of the Season Odds for the Big Six

Let’s take a look at the start of the season odds for the “Big Six” to win the Premier League.

These are the general odds available just before the 2024/25 Premier League season kicked off on 17^th August:

Manchester City: 6/4
Arsenal: 13/8
Liverpool: 13/2
Man Utd: 22/1
Spurs: 25/1
Chelsea: 25/1

So the odds have changed quite a bit since the start of the season – with Liverpool odds-on favourites with Arsenal and Chelsea in pursuit, whilst Man City, Man Utd and Spurs have drifted out considerably.

Main Markets at the Start of the Season

In addition to the Outright market, there are other main markets bettors look at at the start of the season:

Top Four – Which teams will get into the Champions League?
Top Six – Includes Europa League qualification.
Relegation – Which teams will go down to the Championship?
Top Scorer – Who will win the Golden Boot?
Player and Manager Specials – Manager to be sacked and player awards.

Each market has its own variables with the odds reflecting team and player strength, schedule and historical performance.

How Bookmakers Set These Odds

Bookmakers start setting odds by combining statistics, historical data and market sentiment. Here’s a breakdown of what affects the odds in each market:

Team Strength – Bookmakers look at each team’s overall strength, last season’s form, summer signings and pre-season.
Manager Impact – New managers bring uncertainty so the odds often reflect the manager’s experience and big game record.
Fixture List – The early season fixture list can have a big impact on the odds. Teams with tough early games may have longer odds as they are seen as more likely to have a tough start.
Public Sentiment – Bookmakers also take into account where the money is going. If a lot of money is being placed on a team the odds may shorten even if that team isn’t the obvious favourite.

Newly Promoted Teams: Relegation Odds

Three new teams join the Premier League from the Championship every season and bookmakers are quick to put them in the relegation favourites. But newly promoted teams can be undervalued by bookmakers especially if they come into the league with momentum or impressive pre-season form.

Some bettors look for value in these teams’ relegation odds and bet on them to stay up rather than go down.

Finding Value in the Early Top Scorer Odds

One of the most popular start of the season markets is betting on the league’s top scorer. Premier League top scorers often come from teams that finish high up the table but betting on lesser known players or newcomers can be very profitable if you’re looking for bigger odds.

For example players who have joined the Premier League from other European leagues with a good scoring record may have longer odds.

Research into player stats such as goals per game and consistency in previous leagues can help you find value in this market.

Long Term Bets vs In Season Adjustments

One of the advantages of betting at the start of the season is that you can lock in odds that won’t be affected by in season events.

For example you can back a top team to finish in the top four at the start of the season and then watch the odds shorten when they have a good start. Long term bets like this can be very profitable if you get the team right.

But there’s also an advantage to waiting and adjusting bets during the season. Some bettors like to watch the early performances and place shorter term bets based on recent form while still holding onto their long term bets.

Tips for Betting on Premier League Odds During the Season

Follow Recent Form

Teams are in form or out of form, and this can shift the odds before the public catches up. A mid table team on a run of wins against a top team for example.

Keep an eye on Injuries and Suspensions

Key player absentees can change a team’s odds. Stay up to date with injuries and suspensions to find where the bookies haven’t adjusted yet.

Look at Schedule Congestion

Teams with multiple competitions (Champions League or domestic cups) can be fatigued in the Premier League. Look to back the fresher team when the top teams are juggling multiple fixtures.

Use In-Play for Extra Info

Live or in-play betting lets you see how teams perform during the match. This can be especially useful for spotting trends, and placing a bet if you spot a good opportunity.

Conclusion: Premier League Betting Odds

Looking at the opening odds for each Premier League season is informative. These early odds give us a benchmark to measure how teams and players are expected to do.

As the season goes on those odds change dramatically due to form, managerial changes and unexpected events like injuries and fixture congestion.

By comparing current odds to the opening odds we can see trends – which teams have been backed and which have drifted. We can then potentially use this information to make strategic bets, for this season or the next.