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Tennis Betting Advice

Are you tired of losing money on tennis bets? Do you want to turn the odds in your favor?

Look no further because we have the winning advantage for you.

In this article, we will provide you with expert tennis betting advice that will help you beat the odds and increase your chances of making profitable bets.

Our team of experienced betting experts have tested out dozens of strategies and systems to identify winning approaches to betting on tennis. 

Whether you’re a casual bettor or a seasoned professional, our advice will give you the edge you need to succeed.

We understand that tennis betting can be unpredictable, but with our expert advice, you can mitigate the risks and maximize your winnings.

We’ll look at five killer strategies to help you with your tennis betting.

We’ll also let you know how you can manage your bankroll effectively to give you the best chance of success. 

Don’t rely on luck alone. Gain the winning advantage with our expert tennis betting advice.

Stay tuned, and let’s beat the odds together!

The Key to Success: Have a Winning Mindset

The most essential advice for tennis betting, before we consider specific methods or strategies, is to cultivate a winning mindset.

This involves thinking like a professional bettor rather than a casual punter.

Professionals approach their betting meticulously, carefully developing strategies and planning their bets.

They don’t place bets impulsively or just for entertainment; every decision is deliberate.

To adopt a winning mindset, it is crucial to:

  • Have a clear strategy in place before you start and stick to it.
  • Implement a sensible staking plan to avoid depleting your funds.
  • Keep a detailed record of all your bets.
  • Be able to withstand losing streaks and resist the urge to chase losses.

By adhering to these principles, you will significantly improve your chances of success compared to most casual punters.


Tennis Betting Advice – Five Approaches to Help You Beat the Bookies

Let’s explore some specific advice to enhance your tennis betting.

Over the past decade, we have tested dozens of different tennis betting strategies and systems to determine what works and what doesn’t.

This experience has provided us with a solid understanding of successful approaches and their underlying logic.

These approaches cover everything from using statistics in tennis betting, to focusing on head-to-head records, to trading in-play. 

We will examine each of these in detail below.

If you are just looking for tennis betting tips for today, you can find free recommendations from respected tipsters here.

Now, let’s dive into five different approaches to tennis betting.


1. Use Stats to Help Your Tennis Betting

One of the primary ways to approach betting on tennis is to utilise statistics. 

There are numerous tools available these days with a wealth of information, including on sites such as Flashscores and the official ATP and WTA Tour websites. 

You can look at key stats like:

  • First serve percentage: this is the number of their first serves a player gets in, as a percentage of all of their first serves. It is normally around 63% on average for a tour player (men’s and women’s).
  • First serve hold percentage: the number of service games a player wins as a percentage. On the men’s (ATP) tour it is around 80% and on the women’s (WTA) about 65%. 
  • Return points won: how often, as a percentage, a player wins the point when returning. On the ATP Tour it is around 38% and on the WTA Tour 45%. 
  • Break point conversion: the percentage of break points a player wins – or the point that will win the game when the opponent is serving. The stats for break points are very similar to return points won – 39% for the ATP Tour and 46% for the WTA. 

Taking a combination of these stats, you can build a profile of a player or match. 

For example, let’s say there was an upcoming match on grass.

Being a faster surface with a lower bounce, servers tend to be favoured on grass. 

Serve is held an average of 79% of the time on the men’s tour in general, but 82% of the time on grass. 

So it might be worth looking for players with a high percentage of service holds, who would be more favoured on grass than other surfaces. 

Or there could be two big servers going up against each other.

With stats on their service holds we might choose to back a high number of games in the match, or for there to be one of more tie-breaks. 

If they both have below average stats for their return games won, then it might be an even better bet.

Alternatively, if a player has a high return percentage, they might be more likely to cause an upset against a player who relies heavily on their serve.

Or in matches involving strong returners, you might bet on a higher number of breaks, potentially leading to more games played and higher total game counts.

There are many ways you can use stats to help your tennis betting.

There are services out there that bring together a range of these stats to help with betting and trading decisions. 

Tennis Profits, for example, has 35 detailed performance statistics they provide to members to help with their trading. 

Knowing these stats and how to use them can give you a significant edge on other bettors.

2. Use the Services of a Top Tipster

You might be looking for tennis betting advice but don’t have the time to spend hours analysing stats and watching matches live of course. 

As an alternative, one option is to utilize the services of a tennis tipster. 

Tipsters dedicate extensive hours to studying form, analyzing statistics, and identifying value bets, ultimately saving you time and effort.

If you find a tipster with a proven, long-term record of profitability, it may well be a better choice than spending hours studying form and trying to find value bets yourself.

Several top tipsters in the industry have made consistent profits over a sustained period of time. 

By following their expertise, you can leverage their knowledge and potentially achieve profit too – although nothing is guaranteed of course.

Here are two of the best tennis tipsters we have discovered through our research and testing:

  • Jackpot Junkie Tennis: Established in 2023, this tipster has made over 90 points profit at a return on investment (ROI) of 14% and with a strong strike rate of 38%. Their tips are normally in the main match odds market, where there is good liquidity.
  • PatrickRoss.Tennis: This package includes a range of resources to help your tennis betting including daily trading and betting picks, weekly tournament guides, automated picks and a tennis trading guide. Patrick’s automated system, Tennis Goldmine, made a profit of 28 points during our review at an ROI of 10%

By following reputable tipsters like these, you can enhance your tennis betting profitability.

They handle the hard work and research, allowing you to simply follow their tips and enjoy the potential for profit.


3. Focus on Head-to-Head Records

Head-to-head (H2H) records are a crucial part of tennis betting. They provide valuable insights into how players match up against each other and are often overlooked by bettors.

Head-to-head records can help predict outcomes based on historical performance, playing styles, and psychological factors.

Here is a detailed look at why head-to-head records matter:

  1. Playing Style Matchups
    • Compatibility: Some players’ styles naturally counter or complement others. For instance, a strong baseliner might struggle against a net-rusher.
    • Surface Impact: The effectiveness of playing styles can vary by surface. A player who dominates on clay might struggle on grass against the same opponent.
  2. Psychological Edge
    • Confidence: A player with a winning H2H record might have a psychological advantage, feeling more confident and relaxed.
    • Pressure: Conversely, the player with a losing record may feel added pressure or doubt, impacting their performance.
  3. Tactical Awareness
    • Game Plans: Players familiar with each other’s games might develop specific tactics to exploit weaknesses, making H2H records an indicator of tactical battles.

Let’s take a look at the dynamics of a specific head-to-head record and how knowledge of it can help us in our betting. 

Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal have had a long rivalry at the top of men’s tennis and examining their head-to-head record is illuminating.  

Their contrasting styles and strengths are reflected in their head-to-head statistics.

Since 2013, Djokovic has dominated their rivalry, winning 15 of his 22 encounters with Nadal.

Interestingly, Nadal’s seven victories during this period were all on clay, where he holds a head-to-head advantage of 7-5.

Conversely, on other surfaces, Djokovic has been dominant, boasting a flawless 10-0 record against Nadal over the period.

Despite this dominance, the odds for their non-clay encounters over the past decade have often remained close.

For instance, in the 2019 Australian Open final, Djokovic was priced at 1.75 in the betting markets against Nadal.

Djokovic secured a comfortable victory in the final, defeating Nadal in three straight sets, further demonstrating his continued dominance over Nadal on courts other than clay.

On the basis of the odds – and without examining their head-to-head records – you might have assumed this would be a close contest. 

However, dissecting the H2H record revealed a clear edge to Djokovic on hard courts, which he maintained. 

There are many H2H records like this in tennis that can be uncovered with simple research and can reveal value betting opportunities. 

4. Find Value Tennis Bets

An alternative method to analyzing stats, head-to-head records, and the like is to focus on shifts in betting odds and use these changes to our advantage.

One bookmaker known for highly accurate odds is Pinnacle. They are recognized for providing some of the most precise odds in the industry.

Such bookmakers are often referred to as “hard” or “sharp” bookies.

Many of these sharp bookmakers are based in Asia and offer much higher betting limits on tennis matches compared to their European counterparts.

As a result, they attract substantial professional money, with large-scale bettors and syndicates placing their bets there due to the higher stakes allowed compared to European bookies.

This influx of professional money helps these bookmakers more accurately reflect the “true odds” of an event, as they incorporate comprehensive information from professional operations, such as player fitness and local conditions.

Traditional “soft” bookies, in contrast, are slower to react to news and impose stricter betting limits, thus attracting less professional money.

Therefore, bettors can exploit the discrepancy in odds between “sharp” and “soft” bookmakers.

When sharp bookies lower their odds on a player while soft bookies do not, this presents an opportunity to place a value bet with the soft bookmakers.

Tools like Trademate Sports monitor the markets of both sharp and soft bookies, alerting users when such an opportunity arises.

Here’s how Trademate Sports explains the concept:

These tools can be used in various sports, but tennis is particularly suitable due to market liquidity, frequent matches, and the binary outcome (only two players in a match).

However, as with other strategies like matched betting and value betting, this approach might eventually lead to limitations on your bookmaker accounts.

There are many bookie accounts available for this method though, and sometimes you can even use betting exchanges to capitalize on odds differences.

This strategy offers a viable option for those who prefer not to spend much time analyzing form and playing styles but instead rely on market signals.

5. Take Advantage of In-Play Opportunities

In-play betting, or live betting, in tennis offers unique opportunities to leverage real-time statistics and research to make informed wagers.

One of the key advantages of in-play betting is the ability to observe a player’s performance and momentum during the match.

For instance, monitoring first serve percentages, return points won, and break point opportunities can provide valuable insights.

If a player consistently struggles with their second serve or shows signs of fatigue, this could indicate potential weaknesses that their opponent might exploit.

Bettors can capitalize on these real-time trends by placing bets on game outcomes, set winners, or total games within a match.

Researching head-to-head records and player performance on specific surfaces before the match can also enhance in-play betting strategies.

Understanding historical performance trends allows bettors to anticipate possible shifts in momentum.

For example, if a player with a strong record against their current opponent on clay courts loses the first set, statistical analysis might suggest they have the capability to bounce back, making a live bet on them to win the next set a viable option.

Additionally, observing player behavior and body language can provide subtle cues about their confidence and mental state, which can be critical in high-pressure moments.

Another critical aspect of in-play betting is reacting to sudden changes, such as injuries or weather conditions.

For example, a player with a strong baseline game might struggle if windy conditions affect their precision, offering an opportunity to bet against them if the weather deteriorates.

Similarly, if a player shows signs of physical distress or calls for medical timeouts, bettors can quickly place wagers on their opponent to win the upcoming games or sets.

By combining pre-match research with real-time statistical analysis and observation, bettors can effectively exploit in-play betting opportunities in tennis.

If you are looking for a service that brings all this together for you in one package then it is worth checking out Tennis Profits.

With a range of trading strategies, comprehensive stats covering the top 900 men’s and women’s players and a chatroom where you can follow a pro trader live, Tennis Profits shows how you can capitalise on in-play opportunities. 

Whilst it can take more skill and time to learn than traditional pre-match betting, in-play trading can be very rewarding long-term for those prepared to study and master it.  

Effective Money Management is Key to Success

Whatever betting strategies you use, it is almost impossible to succeed long term in tennis betting without an effective approach to money management.

By applying sound financial strategies and risk management techniques, you can safeguard your capital, reduce losses, and enhance profitability over time.

Here are key principles for managing your bankroll:

  1. Set a Budget: Determine a clear budget for your betting activities based on your financial situation and goals. Decide how much you can afford to wager without risking your financial stability.
  2. Define Betting Units: Break your bankroll into betting units to manage your wagers effectively. Each unit should be a small percentage of your total bankroll, allowing you to endure losing streaks and fluctuations. For example, if you have $1,000 to bet with, you could split this into 1% stakes for each bet, which would be $10 per bet to start with. If you bank were to increase to $2,000, then your stakes would be $20, and so on. 
  3. Implement Staking Plans: Use staking plans such as flat betting, proportional betting, or the Kelly Criterion to decide the size of your bets based on confidence levels and perceived value. Consistent staking strategies can help optimize returns and reduce risks.
  4. Monitor Your Performance: Track your betting activities, wins, losses, and overall performance to assess your strategies’ effectiveness. Analyzing your results can reveal areas for improvement and help refine your betting approach.
  5. Adjust Your Strategy: Be flexible and ready to adapt your betting strategy based on performance, market conditions, and emerging trends. Learning from your experiences and adjusting accordingly can optimize your bankroll management and boost your chances of success.

By integrating these principles into your betting routine, you can build a strong foundation for long-term success in your tennis betting and set yourself apart from the vast majority of casual punters.

Conclusion – Tennis Betting Advice

Turning the odds in your favor in tennis betting requires more than just luck.

With expert advice, a winning mindset, and effective money management, you can significantly increase your chances of making profitable bets.

By adopting a clear strategy, leveraging statistical analysis, and utilizing top tipsters, you can enhance your understanding of the game and make informed betting decisions.

In-play opportunities and head-to-head records further provide valuable insights that can give you an edge over the bookies.

Remember, success in tennis betting is a marathon, not a sprint. Stay disciplined, keep learning, and continuously refine your approach to build a solid foundation for long-term profitability.

And please remember to always gamble responsibly. 

Let’s beat the odds together and enjoy the rewards of smart, strategic betting.

Now read: Handicap in tennis betting – explained.

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