Low Odds Betting Strategy: Can You Make a Profit Backing Short-Priced Favourites?
There is something appealing about backing a selection at odds of 1.20 rather than taking a chance on a 10/1 outsider.
After all, if a bookmaker is offering such short odds, surely the selection must have an excellent chance of winning?
And if you can find enough of these seemingly safe bets, couldn’t you build up a healthy profit by collecting small wins over and over again?
That’s the thinking behind a low odds betting strategy, and it’s an approach that has attracted plenty of interest among punters looking for more consistent returns.
However, while backing short-priced favourites might sound like an easy way to make money from betting, there are some significant pitfalls to consider.
In this guide, we’ll examine how low odds betting strategies work, look at some of the most popular methods and, most importantly, investigate whether you can actually make a long-term profit from them.
What Is a Low Odds Betting Strategy?
A low odds betting strategy involves backing selections at relatively short prices, typically between 1.10 and 1.50 in decimal odds, or approximately 1/10 to 1/2 in fractional odds.
These selections are usually strong favourites that have a high probability of winning, at least according to the bookmakers.
Examples might include:
- Backing Manchester City to beat a lower-league opponent in a cup match.
- Betting on a top tennis player to defeat someone ranked significantly below them.
- Backing over 0.5 goals in a football match involving two attacking teams.
- Supporting a short-priced favourite in a horse race.
The theory is that by consistently backing selections with a high chance of winning, you can accumulate numerous small profits while minimising the number of losing bets.
Unfortunately, there’s a catch.
The lower the odds, the more winning bets you need to compensate for a single loser.
And that’s where things start to get interesting.
How Often Do Low Odds Bets Need to Win?
Before trying any low odds betting system, it’s essential to understand the strike rate required to break even.
For example, if you’re backing selections at decimal odds of 1.20, each successful £10 bet produces just £2 profit.
However, a losing bet costs you the entire £10 stake.
That means you need five winning bets just to recover the loss from one unsuccessful selection.
Here’s how the numbers work at different odds.
| Decimal Odds | Fractional Odds | Break-Even Strike Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 1.10 | 1/10 | 90.91% |
| 1.20 | 1/5 | 83.33% |
| 1.25 | 1/4 | 80.00% |
| 1.30 | 3/10 | 76.92% |
| 1.40 | 2/5 | 71.43% |
| 1.50 | 1/2 | 66.67% |
| 1.60 | 3/5 | 62.50% |
| 1.80 | 4/5 | 55.56% |
These figures assume level stakes and exclude any betting exchange commission.
As you can see, backing selections at 1.10 requires an exceptional winning percentage simply to avoid losing money.
Even at 1.30, you need to win almost 77% of your bets to break even.
It’s worth emphasising that a high strike rate doesn’t necessarily translate into a profitable betting strategy.
We’ve reviewed plenty of betting systems here at Honest Betting Reviews over the years, and one of the most important lessons is that the relationship between the odds and strike rate matters far more than either statistic in isolation.
A system that wins 90% of its bets can still lose money, while another that wins just 35% could produce excellent returns if the average odds are sufficiently high.
The Best Low Odds Betting Strategies
Let’s look at some of the most popular approaches to backing short-priced selections.
None guarantees a profit, but they provide a useful starting point for anyone interested in developing and testing a strategy.
1. Backing Strong Football Favourites
One of the most obvious low odds betting strategies is to back heavily fancied football teams to win.
For example, you might look for Premier League teams playing against significantly weaker opposition, with odds between 1.20 and 1.40.
The attraction is obvious. Stronger teams usually dominate possession, create more chances and win a high proportion of matches against weaker opponents.
However, there are several factors to consider.
A team might rest key players ahead of an important European fixture, while an underdog could adopt defensive tactics designed to frustrate its opponent.
Even the best teams occasionally lose matches they are overwhelming favourites to win.
Our suggestion: Rather than automatically backing every strong favourite, look for situations where you believe the bookmaker has underestimated the favourite’s chance of winning.
For example, if you estimate that a selection has an 85% chance of winning, but the bookmaker offers odds of 1.25, that represents potential value.
The key is developing a reliable method of estimating probabilities rather than simply trusting the bookmaker’s assessment.
2. Over 0.5 Goals Betting Strategy
Another popular approach involves backing football matches to contain at least one goal.
The over 0.5 goals market is attractive because you only need a single goal during the match for your bet to win.
Odds are frequently very short, particularly when two attacking teams are involved.
Imagine backing over 0.5 goals at average odds of 1.15.
A £100 bet would return £115, giving you £15 profit.
However, a single goalless draw would wipe out the profit from more than six previous winning bets.
That makes careful match selection essential.
You could analyse factors such as average goals scored and conceded, expected goals (xG), team line-ups and recent attacking performances.
But remember that even matches involving prolific goalscorers occasionally finish 0-0.
The important question isn’t whether a goal is likely, but whether the available odds adequately compensate you for the risk.
3. Tennis Favourites Betting Strategy
Tennis is another sport where short-priced favourites regularly appear.
A highly ranked player facing a much weaker opponent might be available at odds of 1.10, 1.20 or 1.30.
Unlike football, where a single goal can dramatically affect the outcome, tennis matches usually involve numerous games and points.
That gives stronger players more opportunities to demonstrate their superiority.
Nevertheless, favourites still lose.
Injuries, fatigue, playing surfaces and changes in form can all influence results.
A player who dominates on hard courts might be considerably less effective on clay, for example.
You could therefore focus on identifying favourites with particularly strong records on specific surfaces, or players whose opponents have struggled against similar playing styles.
Again, though, the objective should be finding value in the odds, rather than simply selecting the player most likely to win.
4. In-Play Low Odds Betting
Some punters prefer waiting until an event is underway before backing a favourite.
For instance, a football team might be priced at 1.50 before kick-off but shorten to 1.20 after taking the lead.
Alternatively, a tennis player could become a heavy favourite after winning the first set.
The advantage of in-play betting is that you can observe what’s happening before placing your wager.
You might identify a team dominating possession and creating chances, or a tennis player comfortably outperforming their opponent.
However, the market will usually have adjusted to reflect those developments.
A football team leading 1-0 isn’t automatically good value at 1.20 simply because it looks likely to win.
And in-play markets can move extremely quickly, meaning the odds available when you decide to bet might disappear before your wager is accepted.
In-play betting can offer opportunities, but it requires discipline and a clear understanding of how match situations affect probabilities.
5. Low Odds Accumulator Strategy
Some bettors attempt to improve the returns from short-priced selections by combining them into accumulators.
For example, consider a four-fold accumulator consisting of selections at the following odds:
| Selection | Decimal Odds |
|---|---|
| Favourite 1 | 1.20 |
| Favourite 2 | 1.25 |
| Favourite 3 | 1.30 |
| Favourite 4 | 1.20 |
| Combined Odds | 2.34 |
A £10 bet on this accumulator would return £23.40, giving a profit of £13.40 if all four selections win.
That sounds considerably more attractive than backing an individual selection at 1.20.
However, every selection must win for the accumulator to succeed.
Even when all four bets have high individual probabilities, combining them increases the likelihood that at least one will lose.
Assuming the outcomes are independent and each selection has exactly the probability implied by its odds, the accumulator has only around a 42.7% chance of winning.
That’s the mathematical reality of accumulator betting.
Combining several seemingly safe selections doesn’t magically create a safer bet. It simply changes the risk-and-reward profile.
Can You Make Money Backing Odds of 1.20?
Let’s examine the numbers more closely.
Suppose you place 100 bets at average decimal odds of 1.20, staking £10 on each selection.
Your total stakes would be £1,000.
Here’s how your results would vary depending on the strike rate achieved.
| Strike Rate | Winning Bets | Losing Bets | Overall Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 75 | 25 | -£100 |
| 80% | 80 | 20 | -£40 |
| 85% | 85 | 15 | +£20 |
| 90% | 90 | 10 | +£80 |
| 95% | 95 | 5 | +£140 |
These are hypothetical results, but they demonstrate an important point.
Even with an impressive 85% strike rate, your profit across 100 bets would be just £20.
That’s a return on investment of only 2%.
Meanwhile, a strike rate of 80%, which might sound excellent to someone unfamiliar with betting mathematics, would result in a loss.
And achieving a consistent 90% or 95% strike rate against accurately priced markets is far more difficult than it might initially appear.
Why Low Odds Betting Strategies Often Fail
There are several reasons why betting on short-priced favourites can prove less profitable than expected.
One Loser Can Wipe Out Numerous Winners
This is arguably the biggest problem.
At odds of 1.10, a single losing bet wipes out the profit from ten winners.
You could enjoy a long winning streak, steadily build your betting bank and then suffer a couple of unexpected defeats that undo weeks of progress.
The psychological impact can be significant, particularly if you’ve become accustomed to winning almost every bet.
Short Odds Don’t Automatically Represent Value
Bookmakers aren’t offering low odds out of generosity.
They’re attempting to price outcomes accurately while building a profit margin into their markets.
A selection priced at 1.20 might have a very good chance of winning, but that doesn’t mean it’s a good bet.
If its true probability is only 80%, fair odds would be 1.25.
Backing it at 1.20 would therefore represent poor value, despite the selection winning four times out of five on average.
Increasing Stakes Can Be Dangerous
Another temptation is to increase stakes to make the small profits more worthwhile.
For example, winning £2 from a £10 bet at 1.20 might seem barely worth th