Football Scoring Goal

Over 0.5 Goals Strategy

Today we take a look at the over 0.5 goals market and some strategies for betting on it.

What is the Over 0.5 Goals Market?

The over 0.5 goals market is basically a market where you are betting for there to be at least one goal in a game of football. There can be any number of goals, just as long as there is at least one, and you will win your bet. 

The only score you can lose on is 0-0.

 

Why Should You Bet on Over 0.5 Goals?

Betting on over 0.5 goals can be attractive because of the high chances of success. Only 5-10% of matches in the major European soccer leagues finish with a scoreline of 0-0, so you can win a high proportion of your bets on this market.

Cristiano RonaldoIt can also be fun to bet on this market as you can cheer on a goal for any side, not worried about who will win but just wanting the ball to fly in the back of the net at some stage and you can yell “GOOOOOOAAAALLLLLL!!!” at the top of your voice.

It can be particularly attractive for teams who play attacking football and are very unlikely to draw a blank. We take a look at this in more detail below. 

The other reason to bet on the over 0.5 goals market is that it has very good liquidity, meaning there is lots of money in the market and you can obtain good value in the vast majority of cases.

 

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Drawbacks of Backing Over 0.5 Goals

Of course, because there is such a high probability of there being at least one goal in most matches, the odds for the overs are poor. It is often between 1.05 and 1.1.

So you don’t win much each occasion you back it, unless you place a massive stake.

Plus it can be frustrating to sit through a game when no goals are scored, hoping for the deadlock to be broken right up until the 90th minute, only to be disappointed.

 

Best Bookmakers for Over 0.5 Goals Strategy

These days most of the bookmakers have plentiful in-play markets for you to get your teeth stuck into for the over 0.5 goals strategy.

We find that Betfair generally has very good odds for the over/under 0.5 goals market, as does Bet 365.

 

Over 0.5 Goals Betting Strategy

Now we will take a look at over the 0.5 goals betting strategy. With the odds being so low for over 0.5 goals, there can be merit in approaching it in a different way to just backing it and leaving it to run.

The first step to look for in this over 0.5 goals strategy is teams who are typically involved in high scoring games – so teams that both score goals and concede them. We want leaky defences and strong attacks that give us the best chance of there being a goal.

Lionel MessiYou can use a site like soccerstats to get full statistics on teams and their scoring records. Look for teams that have a very high number of games without a 0-0. A list of teams below shows teams who have had numbers of games without a goalless draw.

Stats for 2015/16 Season

  • Liverpool: 0 games at home finished 0-0
  • Barcelona: only 1 game all season finished 0-0
  • Real Madrid: 32 games in a row without a 0-0
  • PSV: no games finishing 0-0 all season

Then what you do is back the over 0.5 goals at the start of the game. It may be as low 1.05 in some cases. 

Although this doesn’t appear as great value on the face of it, when you consider many of teams listed above go more than 30 games without a 0-0, it actually represents excellent value.

Another thing to look at is sides who have key defenders missing and therefore are more likely to concede goals than the odds would suggest. This can present significant value. 

 

Alternative Strategy 

An alternative over 0.5 goals strategy is to wait until the game has gone in-running and then look to exploit opportunities as they arise.

In this approach, you wait until the second half and then assess how the game has progressed. 

You can use in-play tools like the In Play Scanner to find instances where lots of chances are being created and a goal is likely to be scored.

Atletico MadridThe odds will generally move in accordance with how much of the game has elapsed and the odds at the start rather than how open a game is, so if you can find matches where shots are raining in on goal and chances are being created, you could find some excellent value.

You can also use sites like Flashscores that have live stats including the number of shots on and off target, possession and corners for each game, which gives a good guide to how a game is unfolding.

If you are prepared to wait until the last half an hour of a game, there can be rich rewards as the odds on over 0.5 goals will move significantly outwards.

It is more risky to wait until the last half hour, but if it is a very open game with plenty of efforts on goal, then it can pay to bet on the deadlock being broken. 

 

Summary

The over 0.5 goals market is a straightforward one to bet in as all you need is one goal to be scored to win your bet.

The odds are generally very low to bet in this market – often between 1.05 and 1.1. 

This does not mean there are not opportunities to make money out of a good over 0.5 goals strategy though – if you look at certain teams, certain situations and follow games in-running then you can make the market pay for you. 

 

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