Over 1.5 Goals Strategy

One of the most popular markets to bet on in football is the over 1.5 goals market. There is good liquidity for trading on the market and lots of opportunities to capitalise on value during a football match. 

Below we take a look at some top strategies for betting on the over 1.5 goals market.

 

What is the Over/Under 1.5 Goals Market?

Before we get into the strategies to bet on over 1.5, let’s quickly explain how over/under 1.5 goals market works.

You might be wondering – “How can there be half a goal in a football match?”

Well obviously that’s not possible, but by setting the market up this way it ensures there can only be two outcomes – the bet cannot end in a draw.

For example if there’s no goal or just one goal it will be under 1.5.

If there are two or more goals it will be over 1.5.

Here’s a table to illustrate:

Scoreline	Outcome
0-0, 0-1, 1-0	Under 1.5 goals
All other scores	Over 1.5 goals

So it’s simple really. Any game that has two or more goals, any scoreline, will be over 1.5.

Less than two goals and it’s under 1.5.

If the market was over/under 2 goals and the game ended 1-1 and 2-0 for example, the bet would be void.

So by setting it up as over/under 1.5 goals you can only have two outcomes.

This makes it a more binary market to bet on.

 

Should You Bet on Over 1.5 Goals?

It’s attractive to bet on over 1.5 because you’re hoping for goals to be scored in a game, which many people find better than hoping a game will be dull and low scoring.

You can celebrate a goal going in for either side and not even care who wins the game.

Also a large percentage of football matches end with over 1.5 goals – about 70-80% – so you will have high win rate betting on over 1.5.

Sports betting, including betting on over 1.5 goals, is all about statistical analysis and informed decision making.

The odds are low so you will win small on each game. But many small wins can add up quickly so don’t discount it as a strategy because of the low odds.

The over/under 1.5 goals market has very good liquidity – one of the best on Betfair (after the match odds market that is), so from a trading perspective it’s one of the top markets.

 

What to Look Out for With Over 1.5 Goals

Despite the advantages of betting on over 1.5 – a high win rate and you can cheer on goals – there are some things to be aware of if you’re betting on this market.

As mentioned above the odds are low – usually between 1.2 and 1.5 for over 1.5 goals at the start of the game.

So the wins will be small and one loss can wipe out a few wins in a row – which some people can’t stomach.

It’s a fun market to cheer on when there are goals in a game but it can be a tough one to follow if a game has lots of chances that aren’t being converted.

Maybe the keeper is making a load of great saves or a striker is missing chances left and right – either way it can be very frustrating to follow when it looks like there will be lots of goals but somehow the game ends under 1.5 goals.

Also keep an eye on team news as major players being missing can affect the chances of it being over 1.5 – whether it’s a key striker missing for one team or big defenders for another. Don’t get caught out by missing team news.

 

Over 1.5 Goals Strategies

Alright so lets get into it. Below are three strategies for over 1.5 goals: one is pre match and two are live.

You can use single and combined odds to get the most out of your returns when betting on over 1.5.

 

Strategy One – Goals Change Games

One advantage you have over the bookies is to monitor how the game is going in-play. Sometimes a game will be more or less open than expected.

The bookies price up a game in-play based on the pre-match prices so the odds will follow a standard pattern.

But once the game starts a lot can change from what was expected. One thing that can change how a game is played is a goal early on.

You have seen this in some games – when a goal is scored it can become a lot more open as if the floodgates have been opened. The team that is behind will come out more to try and get an equalizer whilst the team that is ahead will find more space to exploit.

A strategy based on this is Trade On Sports’ HT Overs Bot. It looks at the numbers from a database of thousands of games around the world and identifies where after an early goal there will be another goal – and therefore over 1.5 goals – based on this data.

The Bot considers the following:-

1. The score at half-time;
2. 80% of matches historically had another goal in the second half;
3. 70% of matches had at least one more goal after 70 mins (assuming no goal from 46 to 69 mins).

We trialled the Bot live and it made over £5,000 profit with a 12% return on investment (ROI) which is very good in football terms.

The win rate was also 70% so a high proportion of winning bets.

That’s very good and from over a thousand bets so unlikely to be a one off.

Trade on Sports’ HT Overs is an example of an approach that works on over 1.5 goals market based on data and using in-play odds to get an edge.

You can create your own strategy around this idea by watching games in-play and looking for an early goal changing the game.

Maybe the game is more open than expected and so you think it will go over 1.5 goals.

Either way it’s a strategy for over 1.5 goals to see how games develop in-play, whether using data from Trade on Sports or your own observations.

 

Check out our list of the Best Football Tipsters here

 

Strategy Two – Stats that Add Up

Our second strategy for over 1.5 goals is to look for matches where the stats add up. This can be using team stats, their home and away record of over 1.5 goals.

Match data and specific stats such as average match goals and goals conceded will help you identify matches to bet on.

If you go on the site soccerstats there’s loads of info to use to build a strategy.

First of all you can choose a league and then look for the team record for over 1.5 goals.

Here’s the stats table for the English Premier League (EPL) 2021/22 season:

 

We can see for example that Leicester City had a very high number of games with over 1.5 goals, with 87% of their games having two or more goals.

You may not have necessarily picked Leicester as a high-scoring team, but they actually had more games finishing with over 1.5 goals than Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal and Spurs for example. 

What is particularly interesting though is if we delve into a breakdown of their stats:-

If you have a look at their away statistics in particular, what stands out is that an amazing 100% of Leicester’s games finished with over 1.5 goals.

That means even in tough away fixtures against teams that were tight at the back, the game still finished with two or more goals. 

Another side that might surprise people in terms of their record is Aston Villa, although this time it’s their home record that stands out:-

Eighty-nine percent of their home games finished over 1.5 goals, the best record in the league along with Liverpool.

You wouldn’t have picked Aston Villa as a team that would have this record so there might be value there compared to Liverpool who would have very short odds at home for over 1.5 goals.

Using these stats from soccerstats will help you identify teams that are “under the radar” for over 1.5 goals.

You can also drill down further and look at the home and away stats to find teams that stand out.

You want to find situations where you have a team at home who have a lot of home over 1.5 matches against an away team who have the same away.

Also look at the teams playing styles to understand why they have those stats and if they will be repeated.

Using the stats like this and making sure they work in your favour will give you more chance of winning over 1.5 goals than 90% of punters.

 

Strategy Three – Following In-Play Stats

Our third strategy for over 1.5 goals is to follow the action once the game is in-play and use match stats to find value bets.

Games often start slowly with both teams being cautious and feeling each other out. The stats support this with more goals being scored in the second half and most in the last 15 minutes (i.e. by 15 minute segment).

So instead of placing a bet before the game kicks off you can let it go in-play and see how it unfolds.

You can either watch it live and monitor the shots, chances created, corners etc or use a tool such as the In-Play Scanner.

It does the hard work for you, monitoring dozens of matches at the same time for how many of these actions are happening.

Games are rated according to how many of these actions are happening and when a goal is likely to be scored. When a rating hits a certain level (70 for example) it means a goal is about to be scored.

The benefit of this strategy of course is you will get better odds by waiting for the game to go in-play.

The odds on over 1.5 goals will move quite a lot from the kick-off as the minutes tick by so there’s a great value opportunity.

This strategy can be very effective. We actually ran a trial of a system that used these in-play stats and made £632 profit over 3 months.

There’s a risk of course that an early goal will be scored before you get your bet on and the opportunity will have gone. But don’t give up.

You can still monitor the game and there may be another chance to get into the over 1.5 goals market later in the match.

 

Benefits of Betting on Over 1.5

Betting on over 1.5 can be a profitable strategy for sports bettors, it has several benefits that make it attractive.

One of the main advantages is its simplicity and high probability of winning.

Since a large percentage of football matches end with at least 2 goals, this market is stable and predictable. That’s what attracts many bettors to the over 1.5 market.

Compared to Other Strategies

One of the main advantages of betting on over 1.5 is its reliability compared to other strategies.

Since a large percentage of football matches end with 2 or more goals, this market is relatively stable and predictable.

By focusing on teams that score and create chances you can increase your chances of winning.

That makes it easier to develop a consistent strategy as the probability of a game ending over 1.5 is higher statistically.

High Win Rate

Another advantage of betting on over 1.5 is the potential for a high win rate.

The odds may not be as high as other markets but the probability of winning is higher so it’s a good option for those who want to manage their risk.

By combining this strategy with good money management and value bets you can get the most out of your returns while minimising your exposure.

This way you can build up your profits steadily as the frequent small wins add up over time.

 

Summary 

Over 1.5 goals is a simple market to bet on – you just need at least 2 goals in the game to win. The outcome of winning the bet is based on the total goals in the match not both teams scoring.

The odds are low – usually between 1.2 and 1.5 before a game starts but on the plus side most games will have 2 or more goals.

Use stats before and in-play to make money with an over 1.5 goals strategy.

As always, please gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose. 

Want more strategies like this? Well check out our Lay the Draw betting strategies here.