Lay the Draw – How to Profit in 2024

One of the most well-known football trading techniques is the “lay the draw” strategy.

While its exact origins are unclear, several traders have claimed credit for its creation.

This approach, which involves laying the draw on betting exchanges, appears to have emerged shortly after the launch of Betfair in 1999, gaining traction online in the early 2000s.

It became evident to many that when a goal was scored in a football match, the odds of a draw would often spike, sometimes quite significantly.

This presented an opportunity to lay the draw in a wide range of football matches, regardless of which team was favored to win, and then exit the trade for a profit once a goal was scored.

Over time, as the strategy became more popular, market reactions to goals became less pronounced, and the potential for profit gradually declined.

Today, it’s difficult to make consistent profits from laying the draw in football matches without conducting further research or refining your approach.

In fact, some traders now argue that “lay the draw is no longer effective” or dismiss it as an “amateur strategy.”

However, we believe otherwise; it can still be successful, but it requires more sophistication and expertise in today’s market to be profitable.

In the following section, we’ll explore three strategies that demonstrate how lay the draw remains a viable trading method in 2024.

Strategy One – the Classic Lay the Draw Trade

The classic “lay the draw” strategy involves placing a lay bet against the draw before the match starts and then adjusting your position during the game based on the unfolding events.

Here’s an example of how this strategy can be applied in a straightforward trade:

Imagine a Champions League match between Leverkusen and Roma. Given the recent form of both teams and their scoring records, the expectation is that the match will see several goals.

Prior to the match beginning, the odds for laying the draw are set at 3.95.

 

So we click on the lay button (pink) at odds of 3.95 and place a £10 lay on the draw, giving us a liability of £29.50 if the game does finish in a draw (but we will trade out before the end in any event).

Now the game goes in-running and we await the first goal.

Boom! After 3 minutes, Leverkusen score to make it 1-0.

Now just look at what happens to the odds of the draw on Betfair:

The odds on the draw have shot out to around 5.9 from their original price of 3.95.

That means we can lock in a guaranteed profit of £3.28 (which equates to 32.8% profit on our lay stake) by simply clicking on the “Cash Out” button. Easy-peasy! 🙂

 

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What Sort of Games to Use Classic Lay the Draw In

Applying the classic lay the draw strategy to all matches without discretion is an unwise approach and will likely lead to losses overall.

The reason is that the betting markets have become too efficient, eliminating any inherent edge in the strategy itself.

To achieve profitability with the classic lay the draw trade, it’s crucial to be selective and follow specific criteria.

Here are the three main criteria we focus on when choosing matches to execute this strategy:

Criteria One – Good Liquidity

The first important factor is ensuring there’s sufficient liquidity to allow us to exit our bet when a goal is scored.

Therefore, we prioritize matches where at least £30,000 has been matched in the match odds market on Betfair (or any other exchange you might use) before the kick-off.

For instance:

In this game you will see that over £1.5m has been matched on the game before kick-off, which is excellent liquidity and means it will be a good game to trade from this point of view.

Criteria Two – High-Scoring Matches

The lay the draw strategy is most effective in matches where a high number of goals are anticipated. Therefore, it’s crucial to focus on games that are likely to be high-scoring when selecting matches for this strategy.

But how can you determine if a match is likely to have plenty of goals?

One method is to use websites like soccerstats.com to review statistics, such as the average number of goals both teams score and concede per game, as well as how frequently their matches end with more than two goals (i.e., over 2.5 goals).

For a quicker and simpler evaluation, you can also check the correct score market for the same match. This market can give you valuable insights into the expected goal-scoring.

Ideally, you want to find matches where the odds of a 0-0 result—and thus a losing trade—are higher than 15.0.

This suggests a less than 7% probability of the game ending without any goals, giving you a favorable outlook for a successful trade—specifically, over a 93% chance of success.

To assess this, simply look at the odds for the 0-0 scoreline in the correct score market.

Here we see in the correct score market 0-0 is priced at 16.5 to back. This is a positive sign, suggesting that the match could be a strong candidate for executing the lay the draw strategy in.

Another important element of this strategy is to target matches where teams are likely to win decisively with high scores, such as 3-1 or 4-2.

Leagues like the Dutch and German ones are particularly known for these kinds of high-scoring games.

To master this strategy, it’s essential to dedicate time to researching and analyzing data from sources like soccerstats.com.

By identifying teams that frequently play in high-scoring matches, you can greatly enhance your chances of profiting from the lay the draw strategy. These are the matches that offer the most potential for success with this trading method.

Criteria Three – Matches Without a Strong Favourite

The types of games you select for the lay the draw strategy will partly depend on your risk tolerance.

Personally, we prefer to focus on matches where our initial liability isn’t too high.

As a result, we target matches where the draw is priced between 3.5 and 5.0 before kick-off. When the odds exceed 5.0, the liability begins to rise too much for our comfort.

For example:

This is a relatively balanced match, as reflected by the draw odds of 3.75. These odds give us ample opportunity to trade if a goal is scored, particularly if the first goal comes from Porto.

Our decision to set a minimum draw odds threshold at 3.5 is based on the general difficulty of finding matches with odds lower than this when the 0-0 draw odds exceed 15.0.

In high-scoring games, the likelihood of a draw—especially a goalless one—decreases, which is partially reflected in the draw odds.

We aim to avoid rare scenarios where both teams might have a strong incentive to play for a draw.

For instance, this could occur in tournament settings where a draw would see both teams advance to the next round.

We also steer clear of matches that appear suspicious, such as those occasionally seen in Italian football, where draw odds are unusually low, sometimes around 2.0.

From our experience, when draw odds are suspiciously low, it’s wise to avoid those matches as they may be subject to irregularities or, at the very least, perceived manipulation.

On the other hand, we generally target matches where the draw odds are below 5.0, as this allows us to secure a profit or, at worst, minimize losses if a goal is scored.

When there is a strong favorite, a common scenario is that if the underdog scores first, the draw odds might actually decrease, putting your trade at a disadvantage.

This risk is more pronounced when the draw odds are above 4.0, which is why some traders prefer to limit their selections to matches with draw odds below 4.0.

However, we prefer to include matches where the draw odds are between 4.0 and 5.0, as long as we believe there’s a strong chance that the favorite will score first.

Even if the favorite doesn’t score first, we expect any losses to be manageable. That said, once draw odds exceed 5.0, the risk of significant losses increases if the underdog scores, making it a major concern.

Summary – Selecting Matches for the Classic Lay the Draw Strategy

To summarise then, these are the three criteria to focus on when selecting matches to trade the classic lay the draw strategy in. We focus on matches where:

• Over £30,000 has been matched on the match odds market before kick-off;
• The odds of the draw are between 3.5 and 5; and
• The odds of 0-0 are 15.0 or above.

 

Strategy Two – Laying the Draw In-Play

The strategy mentioned above involves laying the draw before the match starts, which is the most common method of using this approach.

However, there’s an alternative method where you wait until the game is in play before entering a trade.

The benefit of this approach is that it allows you to observe how the game is unfolding before committing any money.

Deciding whether to engage in a trade during a football match depends on the game’s dynamics and your willingness to take on risk, allowing you to adjust based on how the action unfolds, which often deviates from pre-match expectations.

The timing of when to enter a trade is crucial and should align with your risk tolerance and preferred time frame. One effective approach is waiting until the later stages of the match.

The final 15 minutes are typically the most open, as teams push hard for a win. Entering a trade during this period can be advantageous because the odds are usually lower, which reduces your liability compared to laying the draw at the start when odds might be 3.5 or higher.

Furthermore, if a goal is scored during this late stage, you can expect the draw odds to spike significantly, resulting in a larger profit on your trade.

To capitalize on late-game trading, it’s important to:

• Monitor the flow of the match and assess the frequency of scoring opportunities.
• Focus on teams known for scoring late goals, which you can identify using resources like soccerstats.

For example, consider this data from the 2020/21 Premier League season, highlighting goals scored and conceded by various teams at different stages of the match:

The data clearly shows significant variations in the number of goals scored and conceded by different teams during the final 15 minutes of their matches.

For example, Leicester City had a total of 33 goals in this period (23 scored and 10 conceded), while Newcastle saw 30 goals (15 scored and 15 conceded). In contrast, Arsenal had only 14 goals during the last 15 minutes of their games.

This data can help you identify which teams are worth focusing on, but the most precise approach is to watch the matches live.

Watching games in real-time allows you to discern which matches are wide open, with teams aggressively attacking and defenses becoming tired, versus those that are more subdued and leaning towards a draw.

This live observation provides valuable insights for executing lay the draw trades, and the more you watch with this perspective, the better you’ll be at spotting profitable opportunities.

If you don’t have the time to watch numerous matches live, you can use tools like those from Trade On Sports. They offer bots that analyze global leagues and extensive data to identify valuable late-goal opportunities.

In our own trial, one of these bots generated a notable profit of £5120, making this a practical option for traders looking to efficiently spot late-goal opportunities without the need for extensive live match observation.

Other times of the game

Your focus doesn’t have to be limited to just the last 15 minutes of a match; there are several moments throughout a game when the lay the draw strategy can be effectively applied.

For example, you might look at the chart above to identify teams that frequently score or concede goals just before half-time, a period known for its potential to produce goals.

Alternatively, the timing of your trade may depend on the specific dynamics of the match you’re watching. For instance, if you’re midway through the second half and observe a flurry of shots on goal, it might be an opportune moment to enter a trade.

As noted earlier, there’s no definitive “right” or “wrong” time to execute the trade.

The key to successful in-play lay the draw trading is to have a well-developed strategy that integrates statistical analysis with live match observation. This comprehensive approach enhances your chances of achieving consistent profitability.

 

Strategy Three – Laying the First Half or Second Half Draw

Another strategy for applying the lay the draw approach is to concentrate exclusively on one half of a football match.

This method can help you stay focused and simultaneously reduce risk.

For example, if you decide to focus on the first half of the match, it would be more appropriate to use the Half Time market rather than the match odds market.

Consider this example from a World Cup qualifying match between the Netherlands and Norway:

While the draw odds for the entire match are relatively high at 4.5, the odds for a draw at half-time are around 2.48.

When using the lay the draw strategy in the Half-Time (HT) market, your potential liabilities are generally lower compared to the Match Odds market. However, it’s important to note that the probability of a draw (leading to a loss on your trade) is higher in this case.

If a goal is scored by either team in the first half, the odds for a Half-Time draw usually increase significantly, which creates an opportunity to exit the trade with a profit.

The best scenario for this strategy is if a goal is scored late in the first half, ideally by the team you’re backing. This outcome can lead to a substantial profit on your trade.

As with any trading strategy, a thorough statistical analysis is crucial. For this approach, focus on identifying teams that often score (or concede) a significant number of goals in the first half. These teams are particularly suited for the Half-Time lay the draw strategy.

For example, during the early years of Jürgen Klopp’s tenure at Liverpool, the team was known for their aggressive starts at Anfield, often dominating opponents in the first 30 minutes. Teams with a similar tendency for early goals are ideal candidates for this strategy.

Laying the draw in the second half

Alternatively, you can apply the lay the draw strategy during the second half of a football match. Although there isn’t a specific “second half” market for this, you can effectively use the Match Odds market, which is typically the most liquid on platforms like Betfair.

Similar to the Half-Time market strategy, if the game is still level at half-time, the odds for a draw in the Match Odds market often decrease significantly.

The ideal odds range for this trade is usually between 2.5 and 3.0. This range allows you to lay the draw with manageable liability while still providing a good profit potential if a goal is scored in the second half.

The best scenario is if a goal is scored late in the second half, especially by the favorite team, as this can lead to a higher profit on your trade. In the event of a goal in the dying moments of the game, you could achieve up to a 100% profit on your trade.

For traders who prefer a bit of protection, you might consider covering the current score at half-time. For example, if the game is tied 1-1 at half-time, you could place a bet on the 1-1 score while also laying the draw.

This approach safeguards against losing your entire stake if no goals are scored in the second half. However, it might result in breaking even or incurring a minor loss if an early goal is scored in the second half, but it ensures profitability if the goal comes later in the match.

Whether or not to cover the current score depends on your risk tolerance.

Regardless of your approach, it’s essential to conduct thorough research on teams that frequently score (or concede) a significant number of goals in the second half when implementing this strategy.

 

What to do if it Goes Wrong – and Right

There are, of course, times when trades do not pan out as we had hoped.

This is perhaps the hardest part of trading to master and causes many traders to lose a lot more money than they should. 

People often panic, over-react, or freeze when a trade goes against them, rather than staying calm and taking effective action. 

In many cases the reaction is a result of not having a clear plan.

However, lay the draw trading is not particularly complicated and it is fairly straightforward to have a plan in place that will allow you to react effectively to the various scenarios that may occur during a game. 

Here are the main ways a lay the draw trade may go against you and how to deal with it:

No Goals Scored

Even with matches expected to have high goal-scoring potential, there will be times when both teams struggle to score.

If you have laid the draw before the match, the recommended approach in such cases is to wait until around the 70-minute mark or until the draw odds fall to 2.0 (whichever happens first), then exit your position.

Typically, you might expect to lose about 50% of your stake in these scenarios. While it can be frustrating, it’s a common part of trading. Careful match selection can help minimize such outcomes.

Alternatively, you could choose to let the game continue until full time, accepting the full loss if it ends in a goalless draw.

However, this carries greater risk. Based on our experience, if a game remains goalless by the 70th minute, it often ends in a 0-0 draw, so trading out at that point is generally a more prudent choice.

Underdog Scores First

In matches where the draw odds are above 4.0, it’s common for the draw odds to decrease if the underdog scores the first goal, potentially putting your trade in a losing position.

You have a few options in this scenario:

1. Immediate Trade-Out: You can choose to exit the trade immediately, acknowledging that the trade has become unfavorable.
2. Stay in the Game: Alternatively, you might decide to remain in the game. This decision could be influenced by factors such as:
   • If the underdog is dominating, you might believe they could score again, possibly leading to a favorable 2-0 result.
   • If it’s early in the game, there might still be a chance for the favorite to stage a comeback and potentially win 2-1.

If you decide to keep the bet open, we recommend trading out if the score is 1-1 or still 1-0 in favor of the underdog as the match approaches the 70-minute mark. Leaving the bet open in such cases could risk losing your entire stake, which we generally aim to avoid.

The “Meltatone” Strategy

Some traders propose a strategy known as “meltatone,” which involves laying the underdog when they score first. The idea is to potentially secure a profit or break even if the favorite equalizes as expected.

However, we do not endorse this approach due to the risks involved:

• Worsened Position: If the underdog scores again, your position can deteriorate further. While the draw odds may rise slightly, the odds for the underdog are likely to drop significantly.
• Declining Odds: If the match remains at 1-0 in favor of the underdog, their odds will likely continue to decrease, while the draw odds remain relatively stable, putting you at a disadvantage.

Given these risks, we recommend avoiding this strategy. Instead, consider trading out when the underdog scores first or, if the situation suggests, wait for a bit to see if the match dynamics improve in your favor.

 

Things Go Right – “Riding the Wave”

Indeed, when the favorite scores first, you have the option to either exit the trade immediately to secure a profit or let it run in anticipation of a second goal.

Our typical approach involves a thorough assessment of the ongoing match. We focus on factors such as the number of scoring opportunities created by the favorite and their historical performance in winning by more than one goal during the season.

If these indicators suggest a favorable outcome, we often choose to extend the trade, usually until halftime or shortly after, to see if the favorite can score a second goal.

If the favorite manages to score again, the draw odds are likely to rise significantly, presenting a lucrative profit opportunity.

By carefully analyzing match dynamics, reviewing statistical data, and making informed decisions, we can effectively apply the lay the draw strategy when the favored team scores first, enhancing the potential profitability of our trades.

 

Lay The Draw Summary

“Lay the draw” is one of the most well-known and widely used strategies in football trading on betting exchanges.

However, it’s important to recognize that merely laying the draw without a well-structured approach is unlikely to be profitable in today’s highly efficient markets.

That said, the lay the draw strategy can still be effective.

As with other betting and trading systems, the key to success lies not just in the strategy itself but in how you implement it.

Thorough research, refining your trading approach, and focusing on specific aspects—such as the first half, late-game scenarios, or particular teams—are essential for achieving positive results.

Discipline and adherence to your established rules are crucial. Avoid letting emotions like fear or greed influence your decisions, as this can quickly lead to losses.

Patience is vital. Allow your bankroll to grow steadily over time. Most importantly, only use funds that you can afford to lose, as even with a solid strategy, success is not guaranteed in the unpredictable world of sports betting and trading.

Check out this top recommended football betting service here.

 

 

FAQ: Lay the Draw Betting Strategy

1. What is the “Lay the Draw” betting strategy?
The “Lay the Draw” strategy is a popular betting method where a bettor places a lay bet against a draw outcome in a football match. This means you are betting that one team will win and that the match will not end in a draw.

2. How does “Lay the Draw” work?
In the “Lay the Draw” strategy, you place a lay bet against the draw outcome before the match starts. If the game does not end in a draw, you win the bet. If the game is tied, you lose the bet.

You can also trade out during the match, for example after a goal is scored to lock in a profit or after 65 minutes if the game is still tied at that point to minimise losses. 

3. Why is “Lay the Draw” popular?
This strategy is popular because it leverages the fact that most football matches do not end in a draw.

Additionally, if a goal is scored by either team in a game involving evenly-matched teams, the odds on the draw typically drift, allowing bettors to potentially trade out of their position for a profit.

4. What are the best matches to use the “Lay the Draw” strategy in?
The best matches to use this strategy in are matches where you expect goals to be scored, particularly games involving teams with strong attacking play and weaker defenses.

It can also be effective as an in-play strategy, allowing you to manage your bet as the game progresses.

5. What odds should I place a “Lay the Draw” bet at?
When placing a “Lay the Draw” bet, it’s generally recommended to look for matches where the odds on the draw are between 3.0 and 4.5.

This range provides a balance between risk and reward, as it typically reflects a scenario where a draw is possible but not the most likely outcome. Odds outside this range can be more unpredictable, either offering too low a return or carrying too high a risk

6. What are the risks associated with “Lay the Draw”?
The main risk is that the match could end in a draw, resulting in a loss, or if you are trading the match, that it remains tied at your cut-off point to close the trade (e.g. 65 or 70 minutes).

7. Can I cash out my “Lay the Draw” bet?
Yes, you can cash out your bet if the odds have shifted favorably after a goal is scored, or a side has gone two goals ahead. You can also cash out your bet if the game is still tied at a certain point and you want to exit the trade to minimize your losses. 

Many bettors choose to trade out for a profit or minimize potential losses by cashing out their bet if the odds on a draw increase after a goal.

8. What should I do if the trade goes against me?
If the trade goes against you, such as when an early goal is not scored or the match seems likely to end in a draw, you have a few options. You can choose to accept the loss and exit the trade early to limit your losses.

Alternatively, you can let the bet run in the hope that a goal is scored later in the match. It’s crucial to manage your risk and have a clear exit strategy in place before placing the bet.

9. Is “Lay the Draw” suitable for beginners?
While the concept is straightforward, the “Lay the Draw” strategy requires an understanding of football betting markets, odds movements, and in-play betting. 

Beginners should paper trade or bet with small stakes until they become familiar with how the strategy works in real-time scenarios.

10. What factors should I consider before placing a “Lay the Draw” bet?
Before placing a “Lay the Draw” bet, consider the teams’ recent form, head-to-head statistics, injury reports, and the likelihood of goals being scored.

Matches with teams that are prone to scoring or conceding late goals are often ideal candidates for this strategy.

11. What is the “Meltatone” strategy?
The Meltatone strategy involves laying the underdog when they score first, with the aim of securing a profit or breaking even if the favorite equalizes as expected.

However, this approach carries significant risks if the underdog scores again or the score remains 1-0 to the underdog. 

12. Are there any alternatives to the “Lay the Draw” strategy?
Yes, some alternatives include “Backing the Draw” with the intention of laying it off at lower odds after the match progresses, or using other strategies like “Correct Score Trading” to achieve similar results.

13. Are there any tools to assist with Lay the Draw trading?
Yes, there are several tools that can assist with Lay the Draw trading. Popular tools include:

1. Betfair Trading Software: Platforms like Betfair’s own trading tools or third-party software such as Bet Angel or Fair Bot provide real-time odds tracking, automated trading features, and advanced charting capabilities.
2. In-Play Stats and Data: Websites and apps offering live match statistics, such as the In-Play Scanner, SofaScore or Flashscore, can provide valuable information to make informed trading decisions during the game.

These tools can help you make more informed decisions and manage your trades more effectively.