Polymarket UK Equivalent: What Are the Best Prediction Market Alternatives?

Prediction markets have become one of the biggest talking points in betting over the past few years.

Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi allow users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events, covering everything from elections and interest rates to sport, entertainment and global affairs.

The basic idea is straightforward. You buy a position based on whether you think something will or will not happen.

The market price then moves as traders react to news, data and changing expectations.

However, British users searching for a Polymarket UK equivalent will quickly encounter a problem: neither Polymarket nor Kalshi currently offers a straightforward, fully regulated option for UK customers.

The good news is that Britain already has several licensed alternatives offering much the same underlying experience — even if they use slightly different terminology.

What Is a Prediction Market?

A prediction market allows people to trade positions linked to the outcome of a future event.

A simple market might ask:

Will Labour win the most seats at the next general election?

Traders can take a “Yes” or “No” position. If “Yes” is priced at 60%, the market is effectively suggesting that the outcome has a 60% probability of occurring.

Unlike a conventional bookmaker, the platform may not be taking the opposite side of the bet itself.

Instead, users trade with one another, with the operator providing the technology, matching bets and charging a fee or commission.

Supporters argue that prediction markets can aggregate information from thousands of participants and create a useful real-time forecast.

However, prices are not guaranteed to be accurate. Thin liquidity, emotional trading, unclear settlement rules and traders with better information can all distort the market.

Can You Use Polymarket in the UK?

As we explain in our detailed guide to Polymarket and whether Polymarket is legal in the UK, the platform does not hold a British Gambling Commission licence.

It therefore cannot legally target or transact with customers in Great Britain as a gambling operator.

Polymarket also uses cryptocurrency and operates outside the consumer-protection framework that applies to licensed British betting companies.

That means UK users do not receive the same safeguards over customer funds, complaints, safer gambling controls or dispute resolution.

Trying to bypass geographical restrictions with a VPN is not a sensible solution. It may breach the platform’s terms and could potentially lead to account restrictions or problems accessing funds.

Kalshi is in a similar position. Although it is regulated as a designated contract market in the United States, that American status does not authorise it to offer event contracts in Britain. Kalshi’s terms currently list the UK as a restricted jurisdiction for event-contract trading.

Are Prediction Markets Legal in the UK?

Prediction markets are not automatically illegal in Britain. The important question is how the product operates and whether the company offering it holds the appropriate licence.

The Gambling Commission’s position is that products resembling current prediction markets would generally fall within the definition of a betting intermediary.

In practical terms, the regulator views them as a modern presentation of something Britain has had for many years: the betting exchange.

Any company offering these markets to British customers would therefore normally require an appropriate Gambling Commission licence.

Financial contracts could also fall under separate Financial Conduct Authority rules, including restrictions on retail binary options.

Smarkets Predictions

Of the regulated options currently available to British customers, Smarkets is arguably the closest thing to a genuine Polymarket UK equivalent.

Smarkets has operated as a betting exchange for a number of years, but it has increasingly adopted the language and presentation associated with prediction markets.

Rather than displaying every market purely through traditional decimal or fractional odds, its newer interface presents outcomes as contracts with percentage prices.

A contract priced at 65%, for example, means the market is estimating roughly a 65% chance of that outcome occurring.

You can buy the outcome if you think the real probability is higher or sell it if you believe the market has overestimated its chances.

This makes Smarkets feel more immediately familiar to anyone who has previously looked at Polymarket.

Its homepage now openly describes the service as a prediction market, with sections covering sports, politics, global events and longer-term futures.

At the time of writing, examples include election markets, political leadership contests, weather-related questions, major sporting tournaments and individual matches.

The important point is that the mechanics remain those of a betting exchange. Smarkets does not necessarily take the other side of your position.

Instead, it matches buyers and sellers, taking commission for providing the market.

This means prices are determined by participants rather than being set entirely by a bookmaker’s trading team.

In theory, that can result in keener prices because there is no conventional bookmaker’s margin built into every outcome.

It also allows users to trade their position before the market settles.

Suppose you buy a political candidate at 35% and a favourable opinion poll subsequently pushes the price to 50%. You may be able to sell the contract at the higher price and take a profit without waiting for the election result.

However, this flexibility depends on liquidity. The headline percentage does not necessarily mean that a large amount of money is available at that exact price.

A market may show an attractive quote, but only a relatively small stake might be available before the price moves.

Liquidity is generally stronger on popular football matches, horse racing and major political events.

More unusual current-affairs questions may have wider gaps between the buying and selling prices.

For British users, Smarkets’ biggest advantage over Polymarket is regulation. Smarkets states that its British operation is licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission.

Customers therefore have access to familiar account verification, responsible gambling tools and formal complaints procedures.

Overall, Smarkets is likely to be the most natural starting point for someone who likes Polymarket’s probability-based interface but wants to use a licensed UK operator.

easyBet Predictions

easyBet Predictions is one of the most direct attempts to package a traditional UK betting exchange as a modern prediction-market platform.

The easyBet betting brand originally launched through a partnership with Matchbook, the established betting exchange operated by Triplebet Limited.

It has subsequently pivoted more heavily towards prediction markets, presenting users with simple Yes-or-No contracts rather than expecting them to understand the traditional exchange language of backing and laying.

The interface displays prices as percentages ranging between 1% and 99%.

A market might ask whether England will win a tournament, whether a team will qualify or whether a particular event will happen before a set date.

You choose “Yes” when you think the event will occur and “No” when you believe it will not. The percentage represents the implied probability and also determines the potential return.

For example, imagine that “Yes” is priced at 40%.

A £10 position at that price would produce a total return of approximately £25 if the market settled as Yes, representing a £15 profit before any applicable commission.

The calculation is essentially £10 divided by 0.40.

The platform performs these calculations automatically, so users do not need to convert the percentages into conventional odds themselves.

Underneath the simplified appearance, easyBet is still based on peer-to-peer exchange technology.

Your position must be matched by someone willing to take the opposite view. The operator provides the platform and earns its money through commission rather than simply setting odds and hoping that customers lose.

easyBet also allows users to close positions by taking the opposite side of the same market. This could be useful where a price changes significantly before the outcome is known.

Suppose you buy Yes at 25% and breaking news pushes the market to 45%. Selling at the new price may allow you to secure a profit.

Equally, closing a position can reduce your loss if the market begins moving against you.

This ability to trade in and out makes the experience noticeably different from placing an ordinary fixed-odds bet with a bookmaker.

The platform initially appears particularly focused on sport, including football and major tournament markets.

Its prediction-market format is therefore likely to suit sports bettors who find Polymarket interesting but are less interested in cryptocurrency, blockchain wallets or highly specialised international political markets.

One limitation is that the predictions side and the conventional exchange may not always share the same pool of liquidity.

A price displayed within the predictions product could therefore differ from the price available on the underlying exchange, and less popular questions may be difficult to trade in significant amounts.

easyBet Predictions is operated through Triplebet’s existing regulatory arrangements. Triplebet also operates Matchbook, and easyBet functions as a white-label partner using its exchange infrastructure.

This provides a regulated British route into prediction-style trading rather than requiring users to access an overseas crypto platform.

easyBet is therefore an interesting middle ground. It has the simple Yes-or-No presentation associated with Polymarket, but the engine behind it is recognisably that of a traditional betting exchange.

Betfair Exchange

The Betfair Exchange does not generally lead with the term “prediction market”, but in practical terms it has been providing much the same service for more than two decades.

Its users bet against one another rather than against Betfair itself. One person backs an outcome to happen, while another person lays it — effectively betting that it will not happen.

Backing a candidate to win an election is therefore comparable to buying a Yes contract on Polymarket. Laying the same candidate is broadly equivalent to buying No.

The language and presentation may be different, but the economic position is remarkably similar.

Betfair’s strongest advantage is liquidity. It is the best-established betting exchange in the UK and attracts large volumes of money to major horse races, football matches, tennis tournaments and high-profile political markets.

Greater liquidity generally means that more money is available at each price and that the spread between the best back and lay offers is smaller.

This can make it easier to enter a position, trade out later or place a reasonably large bet without moving the market too dramatically.

Betfair also provides considerable flexibility. You can place an order at the currently available price or request a better price and wait to see whether another user matches it.

You can then close the position before settlement by placing the opposite bet. This is sometimes described as trading, hedging or greening up.

For example, you might back a football team at odds of 3.00 before kick-off. If that team scores first and its price falls to 1.70, you could lay it at the lower price.

Depending on the stakes used, this may allow you to create a profit regardless of the eventual result.

The same principle can be applied to elections, leadership contests, awards and other events. A trader might back a candidate months in advance and then lay the candidate after a favourable poll causes the odds to shorten.

Betfair charges commission on a customer’s net winnings within a market rather than deducting commission from every individual bet.

The exact rate can depend on the customer’s location, account terms and Betfair Rewards arrangement. Losing markets do not incur ordinary exchange commission.

The main drawback for someone specifically seeking a Polymarket alternative is the interface. Betfair still looks and feels like a professional betting exchange.

New users must learn the difference between back and lay prices, available liquidity and lay liability.

Lay liability is particularly important. When backing at £10, the most you can normally lose is the £10 stake.

When laying, the potential loss depends on the odds. Laying a £10 bet at odds of 6.00 creates a liability of £50 because you are agreeing to pay the opposing customer’s winnings if the selection succeeds.

Betfair may therefore be less immediately approachable than a platform presenting everything as a simple Yes or No question.

Its selection of non-sporting markets can also be less adventurous than Polymarket’s.

Betfair regularly offers politics, elections, television, entertainment and special markets, but users should not expect to find a contract on every breaking news story or internet talking point.

Nevertheless, for market depth, reliable price discovery and the ability to trade positions, Betfair remains the strongest all-round UK exchange.

It may not use the fashionable terminology, but it is arguably the most mature prediction market available to British bettors.

Which Is the Best Polymarket UK Equivalent?

Choosing the best Polymarket UK alternative depends largely on what you want from the platform.

Smarkets offers the closest overall imitation of a modern prediction market. It uses probability-style pricing, covers sport alongside politics and current affairs, and presents the service as a place to buy and sell contracts.

easyBet is likely to be particularly accessible to newcomers. Its Yes-or-No format removes some of the terminology that can make betting exchanges confusing, although liquidity may be more limited on some markets.

Betfair has the most traditional interface, but it remains the strongest choice where liquidity and trading flexibility matter most.

Its major sporting and political markets can attract substantial activity, making it easier to enter and exit positions at competitive prices.

None offers an exact copy of Polymarket. The range of unusual news, technology and cryptocurrency-related questions may be narrower, while the products are regulated as gambling rather than presented as decentralised information markets.

However, that difference also brings advantages. Customers can deposit in pounds, use familiar payment methods and access the consumer protections required of licensed UK gambling businesses.

For most British users, these benefits are likely to outweigh the novelty of accessing a crypto-based offshore prediction market.