NFL New Season: Value in Backing the LA Rams?
With around seven weeks to the official kick-off for the 2026 NFL season, teams are finalizing preparations with training camps and a clutch of preseason games before the ‘real thing’ gets underway on September 9.
While a ball hasn’t been thrown in anger yet, we do have a clear favorite for the Super Bowl next February – by a fairly distant margin – the Los Angeles Rams.
You can see the Rams’ latest odds here, but it’s enough to say that most sportsbooks have them at around +500, around half the price of the next-ranked teams like the Ravens and Bills.
It is, quite clearly, a big statement from the sportsbooks. Last season, for example, we entered the season with four teams – the Chiefs, Eagles, Bills, Ravens – as almost co-favorites, with each priced somewhere in the region of +700.
It was difficult to pick between them, and, as we now know, the best thing to do would have been to avoid all of them.
Rams’ odds represent confidence from sportsbooks
And that somewhat gets to our point here: Is there value in backing the Rams to win Super Bowl LXI?
Well, they have made a compelling argument with their offseason business.
In fact, many pundits named them the offseason “winners,” adding Trent McDuffie and Myles Garret as defensive playmakers, as well as underrated cornerback Jaylen Watson, and several others.
There was also a sense that the Rams were strengthening from a position of strength. There was a school of thought that the Rams were the best team in the NFL last season, or at least, the best equipped to win the Super Bowl.
They come up against the Seahawks, though, and the defeat caused the Rams’ front office to shift gears, patching up any weaknesses and adding more firepower.
McVay has done it all before
You can argue that there are other important factors. In Sean McVay, the Rams have a head coach who knows how to win in the postseason.
There is also the attractive proposition that Super Bowl LXI will be held on the Rams’ home turf of SoFi Stadium.
So while there’s a lot to like about the Rams, and you can see why they are favorites, the question was about value, and to be frank about it, +500 seems quite short at this stage.
That doesn’t mean they won’t win it – they very well might – but the value might be found elsewhere.
Indeed, it’s worth remembering that the preseason favorite rarely wins the Super Bowl. Last season, the Super Bowl was contested by a +6000 team and an +8000 team.
Those super long odds were something of an anomaly, sure, but it does highlight the fact that a football season is often more wide open than the preseason odds would seem.
The Rams’ case is inevitably helped by rivals having a lot of questions hanging over them. A case in point is the Ravens, a team with a new head coach, new system, and a lot of new players.
On paper, it could be great in Baltimore, but we don’t know how the tactics will work or how new personnel will gel.
Bettors might see a lot of value in the Seahawks repeating, with odds coming in at +1000 and above.
They have kept the majority of the winning formula intact, so why not another tilt at the championship?
In the end, we think a fair few experienced bettors will have a wait-and-see approach, perhaps not going blindly in on the markets now without seeing how some teams settle into the season.
That might be the time to spot value, even if it is just waiting for confirmation that, yes, the Rams are hitting the ground running and will be locked in for another Super Bowl under McVay.
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