Which Odds Are Likely to Win in Football? A Guide to Finding the Best Betting Odds

If you’ve ever looked at a football coupon and wondered which odds are most likely to win, you’re certainly not alone.

Should you stick to short-priced favourites at 1/2 or 1/3? Are bets around evens a better option? Or is there more profit to be made by taking a chance on outsiders at 3/1 or 5/1?

The simple answer is that lower odds are generally more likely to win than higher odds. A team priced at 1/2 has a much greater implied chance of winning than one available at 4/1.

However, there’s an important distinction between picking winning bets and actually making money from football betting.

You could win 70% of your bets and still lose money if the odds aren’t good enough. Equally, a punter winning just 35% of their selections could potentially make a healthy profit.

In this guide, we’ll explain which football odds are most likely to win, how to calculate their probability and, perhaps most importantly, how to find odds that offer genuine value.

Which Football Odds Are Most Likely to Win?

The shorter the odds, the higher the probability of the selection winning, according to the bookmaker’s pricing.

For example, odds of 1/4 imply an 80% chance of success, whereas odds of 4/1 imply a probability of just 20%.

Here’s a breakdown of common football betting odds and their implied probabilities.

Swipe left to see the full table →

Note: These are the probabilities implied by the quoted odds, not guaranteed real-world winning percentages. Bookmakers also include a profit margin in their prices.

As you can see, football bets priced below evens generally have a greater than 50% implied chance of winning.

But does that mean they’re always the best bets to place?

Not necessarily.

What Are the Best Odds to Bet on in Football?

This is where things become interesting.

Many punters naturally gravitate towards favourites priced between 1.30 and 1.80 (roughly 3/10 to 4/5).

These selections offer relatively high implied winning probabilities without the extremely small returns associated with odds of 1.10 or 1.20.

For example, imagine you’ve identified three potential football bets:

• Bet A: Arsenal to win at 1.25
• Bet B: Liverpool to win at 1.65
• Bet C: Newcastle to win at 2.50

These are hypothetical prices rather than actual upcoming fixtures.

A £20 stake would generate the following profits if successful:

• Bet A: £5
• Bet B: £13
• Bet C: £30

Arsenal is the most likely winner according to the odds, but you’d need to win 80% of bets at 1.25 just to break even.

At 1.65, the break-even strike rate falls to approximately 60.6%, while at 2.50 it’s just 40%.

The best odds are therefore not necessarily the shortest odds. They’re the ones that offer better value than the true probability of the outcome.

That’s the principle behind successful value betting.

How to Calculate the Probability of Football Odds

Fortunately, you don’t need to be a mathematician to understand football betting probabilities.

With decimal odds, the calculation is straightforward:

Implied Probability (%) = (1 ÷ Decimal Odds) × 100

Let’s say Manchester City are available at 1.60 to win a particular match.

The calculation is:

1 ÷ 1.60 × 100 = 62.5%

The bookmaker’s odds therefore imply a 62.5% chance of City winning.

Now imagine you’ve analysed the match and believe City actually have a 70% probability of victory.

If your assessment is accurate, the odds of 1.60 represent good value because the bookmaker is offering a bigger return than the true winning probability would justify.

Of course, accurately estimating that probability is the difficult part!

Why Winning More Bets Doesn’t Always Mean More Profit

One of the biggest misconceptions in football betting is that a high strike rate automatically means you’re a successful punter.

Let’s compare three hypothetical strategies, each involving 100 bets at £10 per selection.

Swipe left to see the full table →

Illustrative results using constant odds and level £10 stakes, with £1,000 staked per strategy.

Notice something surprising?

The strategy with the highest strike rate actually loses money, while the one winning the fewest bets generates the biggest profit.

This doesn’t mean backing outsiders is automatically more profitable. It simply demonstrates how important the relationship between odds and strike rate really is.

A profitable betting strategy needs to win more frequently than its average odds require.

Which Football Betting Markets Are Most Likely to Win?

So far, we’ve concentrated mainly on match-winner odds.

However, football offers plenty of other markets, some of which can provide higher winning probabilities than backing a team outright.

1. Double Chance Betting

Double chance markets cover two of the three possible match outcomes.

You can bet on:

• 1X: Home win or draw
• X2: Away win or draw
• 12: Either team to win, excluding a draw

Because two outcomes are covered, double chance bets generally have shorter odds than backing a single result.

For example, a team might be priced at 1.80 to win but just 1.25 to win or draw.

The latter has a higher implied winning probability, although the returns are considerably smaller.

Double chance can be useful when you fancy a team to avoid defeat but aren’t confident enough to back them outright.

2. Over 1.5 Goals

Over 1.5 goals is another popular market among punters looking for relatively frequent winners.

You only need two goals in the match, regardless of which team scores them.

For example, the following results would all be winners:

• 2-0
• 1-1
• 2-1
• 3-0

The main advantage is that you don’t need to predict the winning team.

However, the odds can be very short, particularly when two attacking sides meet. As with any market, the price still needs to justify the risk.

3. Under 4.5 Goals

Under 4.5 goals involves backing a match to finish with no more than four goals.

Results such as 1-0, 2-1, 2-2 and 3-1 would all be successful.

It’s a market that can carry a high implied probability in fixtures where an exceptionally high-scoring match isn’t expected.

The downside is that bookmakers generally price it accordingly, sometimes offering very little reward for the risk involved.

4. Draw No Bet

Draw No Bet is another option worth considering.

You’re effectively backing a team to win, but if the match finishes level, your stake is refunded.

This provides some protection compared with a traditional match-winner bet.

For example, if you back Chelsea Draw No Bet at 1.55:

• Chelsea win: Your bet wins.
• Match finishes level: Your stake is refunded.
• Chelsea lose: Your bet loses.

Importantly, the possibility of a refund isn’t the same as a winning bet, and your potential profit is lower than with an outright win selection.

Are Football Favourites More Likely to Win?

Generally speaking, yes.

Bookmakers assess team strength, recent performances, injuries, home advantage and numerous other factors before setting their prices.

Consequently, a strong Premier League side playing a relegation-threatened opponent is usually offered at considerably shorter odds than its opponent.

But favourites lose surprisingly often, particularly when you consider the number of matches played throughout a season.

A team priced at 1.40 still has an implied probability of losing or drawing of approximately 28.6%.

In other words, even relatively strong favourites are far from guaranteed winners.

There’s also the issue of the bookmaker’s margin.

Research into betting markets has examined what’s known as favourite-longshot bias, where outsiders can sometimes offer poorer value relative to their chances than favourites.

However, this doesn’t mean backing every favourite will generate a profit. Any potential advantage depends on the market, prices and accuracy of your selections.

Can You Make Money Betting on Odds Between 1.50 and 2.00?

This is arguably one of the more interesting ranges for football betting.

Odds between 1.50 and 2.00 imply winning probabilities between 50% and 66.7%.

They also offer meaningful returns without requiring t