You may have come across the term “over 1.5 goals” or “under 1.5 goals,” but what exactly do these mean?
Basically, it is a market where you can bet on whether the total number of goals in a football match will be above 1.5 goals (i.e. 2 goals or more) or less than 1.5 goals (i.e. 0 or 1 goals).
We will now explain in more detail how it works, plus look at strategies for winning money from the over/under 1.5 market and the potential pitfalls of betting on it.
OK, let’s have a look at how it works in practice with some examples.
Let’s say you backed over 1.5 goals. What would you want to happen?
You want there to be 2 or more goals in the match. It doesn’t matter how many more, just that there are 2 or more. So if it finishes 1-1 or 2-0, you win your bet.
And obviously if it finishes with lots of goals, e.g. 3-1, 2-2, 4-0, you will also win your bet.
Now let’s say you backed under 1.5 goals. What would you want to happen?
You want there to be no goals, or just one goal. So you win if it finishes 0-0, 0-1 or 1-0.
Why have .5 though?
Some people wonder there is half a goal included in the market – it’s not like you can score half a goal in football after all!
Well, basically it is because by doing it this way, you can only have two outcomes to the bet – win or lose. It cannot draw.
Here is why – if you had it as over/under 1 goals and the game finished 1-0 or 0-1, then the bet would be a draw or voided.
But as over/under 1.5 goals, there can only ever be win or lose, thus simplifying the bet.
Why Bet on Over/Under 1.5 Goals?
The over/under markets are some of the most popular to bet on and have huge amounts of liquidity on Betfair, second only to the match markets normally.
Whilst over/under 2.5 goals is the most popular of these markets, it is closely followed by over/under 1.5 goals.
The odds are usually somewhere between 1.1 and 1.4, depending on the relative expectation of goals in the particular game.
Betting on over/under 1.5 goals is a simple method of betting and you don’t have to worry about which team will win. All you have to do is predict whether there will be at least two goals or not.
So if there is a match where you are expecting there will be at least two goals, it can be a great way to make some money.
Or on the other hand if you are confident it will be a drab affair with no goals or just one goal, you can go with under 1.5 goals.
Strategies for Betting on the Over / Under 1.5 Goals Market
You might be thinking about betting on the over/under 1.5 goals market but not sure which strategy to pursue. Sometimes it seems obvious there are going to be lots of goals, but as we all know from betting, it is never as easy as it seems.
The most important thing is to always look for value – i.e. where the odds are higher than they should be, therefore presenting you with an edge over the bookie/betting market.
Here we look at some strategies that can provide you with an edge when betting on the over/under 1.5 goals market.
- – Exploit bookie mistakes – bookies price up matches based on algorithms but then don’t change their models in-play, even when goals are scored that change the way games are played. Early goals for example can make games much more open than expected. A tool that takes advantage of this weakness is the Trade on Sports HT Overs Bot, which identifies over 1.5 goal opportunities based on the HT score and instances where there is an over 80% chance of another goal being scored in a game. It made over £6,000 profit in a live trial here on the site, one of the best returns from any football system we have tested.
- – Injured Strikers – if one or even both of the teams have their main strikers out injured, then it is possible they will struggle for goals, and so backing the under 1.5 goals could provide value.
- – Defenders missing – alternatively, if the sides have key defenders missing, they may struggle to keep goals out and it could be a wise option to back over 1.5 goals.
- – Late-stage tournaments – in international football tournaments such as the Euros and World Cups, goals have become very hard to come by, particularly in the latter stages. Teams are understandably in a mindset where they don’t want to lose or give anything away cheaply, so often “shut up shop” when it gets to the knock-out stages. So it can pay to look at backing the under 1.5 goals in such instances.
- – Mismatches – people often think that when there is a team at the top of the table playing one towards the bottom, it will be a rout. Interestingly however, the statistics don’t back this up and these games are not always thrashings. It can be a good idea to pay close attention to sides that are good defensively, but struggle to score goals themselves and hence are toward the bottom end of the table. They can be good value to back in the unders market.
Strategies for Trading the Over/Under 1.5 Goals Market
As well as betting on the over/under 1.5 goals, there is also the possibility of trading the market by using an exchange such as Betfair.
There is usually excellent liquidity on Betfair in the over/under markets, so they are popular ones to trade.
Below are some potential strategies for trading the over/under 1.5 goal market:
- – Use In-Play stats: You can use an aid such as the In-Play Scanner, which follows matches in-running and awards them a rating to reflect how likely it is for there to be a goal. So when a ranking hits a certain level (e.g. 70), it suggests a strong probability of a goal being scored imminently. The advantage of waiting until a match is in-play like this is the odds of over 1.5 goals can rise substantially compared to the pre-match odds, this providing greater value. Alerts based on this scanner made £632 profit during a three month trial here on the site.
- – Trading the first 10 minutes – if there is not a goal in the first 10 minutes of a game, the odds will move quite considerably towards under 1.5 goals, even though the stats show that the chances of a goal in the first 10 minutes are low (less than 1 in 5). So if you back unders before the game, you can then lay after 10 minutes (or cash out) to make a profit, trading out for a loss if there is a goal.
- – Trading after a goal – the unders market normally rockets upwards after there has been a goal, but then moves back down quite quickly as well over the next 5 to 10 minutes. So if you are brave enough to back unders straight after a goal, there can be profits for trading out quickly a few minutes later.
- – Hedging – another approach is to trade the unders using another market as a hedge – so it could be laying the HT 0-0, or backing a team to score and to trade out of both markets if there is a goal at a given point.
Conclusion – A Simple Market with a lot of Potential
The over/under 1.5 goals market is one of the most popular markets to bet on. Although it often seems obvious when there will be two or more goals, sometimes it is not that straightforward and it can pay off to look for details such as team news and for games where there are particularly strong defences or attacks, for example.