If you’re a fan of football betting, you’re probably always on the lookout for winning strategies that can help you maximize your returns. And if you’re looking for a smart, low-risk approach that can help you avoid some of the pitfalls of traditional betting, then Draw No Bet might just be the way to go.
This strategy offers a unique twist on traditional betting, giving you the chance to hedge your bets across different outcomes. Whether you’re a seasoned gambler or just starting out, Draw No Bet can help you minimize your risks while still giving you the chance to land some nice winners.
In this article, we’ll dive into the key benefits of this smart betting strategy, and explore how you can start using it to improve your footy betting game. So if you’re ready to take your betting skills to the next level, read on to discover why Draw No Bet might just be the smartest betting strategy you can use.
What does “Draw No Bet” mean?
First up let’s have a look at what Draw No Bet means.
Draw No Bet (often shortened to “DNB”) means that if the team you have bet on draw the game, then you will get your money back. If they win the match, you will win your bet.
Here is the bet explained in table form:
|Team Wins Match
|Team Draws Match
|Team Loses Match
|Money back (break even)
The “draw no bet” option aligns with its name, as it results in a void bet if the match ends in a draw. In this scenario, your stake is refunded, allowing you to proceed to the next match.
This type of bet can be viewed as a partial hedge, wherein you believe a team is likely to win the game but may also have a tendency to draw occasionally, prompting you to safeguard against that outcome.
It’s important to note that the odds for “draw no bet” will be notably lower than if you had solely wagered on a team to win. However, this reduction in odds reflects the cost of covering both possibilities and mitigating potential losses.
Draw No Bet Example
Barcelona are playing Real Madrid in the Super Cup. It’s always a close game between the two big rivals, but this time it’s Real who have been in better form recently and are therefore the favourites.
Real Madrid’s odds to win the game are 2.04 (or slightly above evens in fractional odds).
But if you back them at Draw No Bet, their odds are 1.51
Here is what would happen if you bet £100 on Real Madrid “Draw No Bet” at odds of 1.51.
- Real Madrid win: +51
- Real Madrid draw: £0 (money back)
- Real Madrid lose: -£100
Getting the Best Odds on Draw No Bet
We highly recommend using betting exchanges to place your “draw no bet” selections as they typically offer the best odds. It’s usually beneficial to consult an odds comparison site like Oddschecker as well, just to ensure you’re not missing out on better odds at traditional bookmakers. This is especially relevant for matches in lesser-known leagues or cup games where liquidity on the exchanges might be limited.
In general, and especially for high-profile matches, the exchanges tend to provide the most competitive odds. The Betfair exchange is usually the most liquid and covers a wide range of matches. However, Smarkets is gaining ground in terms of liquidity and should be checked when placing your bets, particularly for popular leagues.
There are alternatives to draw no bet which have a similar effect but mean constructing the bet differently.
1. Manually place Draw No Bet using the match odds
If your bookmaker does not offer a specific “draw no bet” option or if you want to explore better value on the exchanges, you can manually create a draw no bet wager using the standard match odds.
To do this, you divide your stake between the win and the draw in such a way that you get your money back if the match ends in a draw. Here’s an example using the Barcelona vs. Real Madrid match:
- The draw is priced at 3.9.
- Take your stake (let’s use £100 as an example).
- Divide your stake by the odds of the draw (3.9).
- This gives you £25.64.
- Place £25.64 on the draw.
- Place the remaining stake (£74.36) on Real Madrid to win.
- By following these steps, you have manually created a “draw no bet” selection.
Please note that the amounts used in this example are just for illustrative purposes, and you can adjust them based on your desired stake and odds.
2. Use the Asian Handicap
Or alternatively you can use the Asian Handicap option of 0 – e.g. back “Real Madrid 0” in the Asian Handicap market at 1.48. This achieves the same thing as the “draw no bet”.
Historical data and success rates of DNB
Historical data shows that DNB can be a successful betting strategy, particularly in sports where draws are a common occurrence. For example, in football the draw is a common result, with around 25% of matches ending in a draw.
This means that if you’re betting on soccer using a traditional win/lose betting strategy, you’re exposing yourself to greater risk, as you’re effectively betting against a 25% chance of a draw.
By using DNB, you can reduce this risk and increase your chances of winning. According to some studies, using DNB can increase your success rate by up to 30%, making it a higher win-rate strategy. As mentioned earlier however, the odds of DNB are significantly lower than betting on win-only, so you have to be prepared to accept smaller wins.
Draw No Bet Strategy
A potential strategy for betting on the draw no bet market is to identify teams that frequently draw matches but have a strong record of avoiding losses. This approach provides some insurance compared to simply backing a team to win, as a draw would result in a void bet rather than a loss.
Let’s take the example of Union Berlin in the 2020/21 season, as observed on the SoccerStats website. Union Berlin was a solid team that experienced relatively few defeats throughout the season. However, they had a tendency to draw a significant number of matches:
Indeed, looking at Union Berlin’s performance in the 2020/21 season, they exhibited a strong ability to avoid losses, losing only 8 games throughout the campaign. However, they had a notable tendency to draw matches, accumulating 14 draws in total. If you had been consistently backing them to win, you would have faced frustration due to the high number of drawn matches.
By employing the draw no bet strategy, you would have mitigated this frustration, as your stake would have been refunded in the event of a draw on 14 occasions. This approach would have been particularly beneficial when Union Berlin played at home, as they only suffered one loss but recorded 8 draws.
Another example is Newcastle United in the 2022/23 Premier League Season. It was a very successful season for the Magpies and they proved a tough team to beat, with manager Eddie Howe having them well-organised at the back whilst also providing a threat going forward.
As you can see from their stats, they only lost five games out of 36, but drew quite a large number, with 12 draws.
Newcastle may have been good value in particular for a DNB wager when playing away from home, as they only lost 3 games away from St James’s Park but drew 7, almost as many as they won.
They had some good away victories at the likes of Tottenham, Fulham, Brentford and West Ham, whilst managing creditable draws away at the likes of Arsenal and Manchester Utd.
So with decent odds normally being available for a Newcastle DNB bet in those away fixtures, they would have presented good value on this market over the 22/23 season.
Identifying teams with a similar pattern of consistently drawing matches can present lucrative opportunities in the draw no bet market. It allows you to cover the possibility of a draw while still having the potential for a win. Conduct thorough analysis and research to find teams that fit this profile, as they can be ideal candidates for draw no bet opportunities.
How to Find Teams Suitable for Draw No Bet
Identifying teams that are suitable for a draw no bet strategy requires thorough analysis and consideration of various factors. While specific teams’ performance can vary from season to season, here are some general indicators to look for when considering the draw no bet strategy:
- Defensive-minded teams: Teams known for their strong defensive capabilities and disciplined playing style tend to have a higher likelihood of drawing matches. These teams prioritize avoiding losses and often have solid defensive structures that make it challenging for opponents to score.
- Inconsistent goal-scoring teams: Teams that struggle to consistently score goals but have a resilient defense can be prime candidates for the draw no bet strategy. These teams may rely on tight defensive play and aim to grind out results, leading to a higher probability of drawn matches.
- Mid-table teams: Teams that consistently find themselves in mid-table positions often face opponents of similar strength. These matchups can result in closely contested games with a higher potential for draws.
- Teams with low-scoring matches: Assess teams that are involved in matches with relatively low-scoring averages. Such teams tend to have fewer goals scored overall, increasing the likelihood of drawn matches.
Remember to analyze recent form, home and away records, head-to-head statistics, playing style, injuries, and other relevant factors when considering teams for a draw no bet strategy. It is important to conduct detailed research and stay updated on team news to make informed decisions.
Should you Use Draw No Bet or Stick to the Match Odds (win betting)?
The choice between draw no bet (DNB) and win betting depends on your risk tolerance, betting objectives, and the specific circumstances of the match. Here are some considerations for each option:
Draw No Bet (DNB):
- Advantage: DNB provides a form of insurance against a draw. If the match ends in a draw, your stake is refunded, minimizing potential losses.
- Suitable for: DNB is suitable when you believe a team is likely to win but want protection in case of a draw. It can be useful when betting on underdogs or in matches where the teams are closely matched.
- Risk: The odds for DNB selections are typically lower than for win betting, as you are eliminating the possibility of a draw. This means potentially lower potential returns compared to win betting.
- Advantage: Win betting offers higher odds and potential returns, especially when backing underdogs or in situations where a team has a significant advantage over their opponent.
- Suitable for: Win betting is suitable when you are confident in a team’s ability to win outright and are willing to accept the risk of losing if the match ends in a draw.
- Risk: Betting on a team to win introduces the risk of a draw, which results in a loss. The higher odds can offer greater rewards but also increase the likelihood of losing your stake.
Ultimately, the choice between DNB and win betting depends on your personal preferences, risk appetite, and the specific circumstances of the match.
It can be beneficial to consider factors such as team form, head-to-head records, playing styles, and the importance of the match before making a decision. It may also be worth assessing the odds and potential value available for each option.
Draw no bet provides a safer option of betting on football matches where you think there is a reasonable chance of a draw.
When betting on DNB, it can pay to find teams who are tough to break down and don’t lose many matches. Check teams records and look for those like Union Berlin and Newcastle analyzed above. With careful research and used in the correct way, Draw No Bet can be a powerful betting strategy to deploy.