How Smart Bettors Win: 5 Football Betting Strategies You Can Copy
Betting on football has exploded in recent years to become the most popular sport to gamble on in the world, overtaking even horse racing, with an estimated $500bn wagered on the “beautiful game” each year around the world.
That is perhaps not surprising when you consider football’s popularity as the world’s favourite sport and how many games are now available to watch on TV and online.
These days you can watch matches from top leagues all over the world – pretty much all day every day if you wish!
Many bookmakers now offer odds on matches from leagues featuring top teams such as Manchester City and Real Madrid, reflecting the global reach of the betting world.
To be able to win at football betting is a whole other matter however and is much harder than most people think.
The bookies have vast resources at their disposal and deploy the most sophisticated software and up-to-date info to ensure their odds are accurate.
Once you have taken the bookies’ edge into account (often referred to as the “overround”) then making a consistent profit on football becomes very tough indeed.
In the betting world, teams like Manchester City and Real Madrid are prime examples of clubs that can significantly influence betting odds and strategies, as many bookmakers generate most of their revenue from live betting markets involving such high-profile teams.
However, we have spent a great deal of time searching the internet and testing out hundreds of systems, strategies, guides, courses, tipsters and just about anything else you can think of to try and find a profitable strategy for betting on football!
Fortunately we have found some very good ones, like Trade on Sports, a stats-based strategy that made over £4,000 profit during our review of it.
Below we take a look at some of these strategies and how you can apply them to your own betting, but first let’s have a look at why it’s so important to have a strategy in the first place.
Why You Must Have a Strategy in Place
Taking the time to learn and understand a strategy is critical to success in betting and trading.
Before we get onto the strategies themselves, it is important to first establish why it is vital to have a clear strategy in place when you are betting on football.
If you are just gambling “willy-nilly” on hunches and in a whole range of different markets on a whim then your chances of making money are virtually nil.
Many people bet based on gut feelings and without any clear strategy behind what they are doing, and then wonder why they lose money!
Those who do manage to make profit do so through a rigorously applied strategy and proper money management and it is not just by luck that they consistently beat the bookies.
Professional gamblers and traders stick to their strategies and don’t deviate from it just because of a couple of bad results. Every system, no matter how good it is, will have its ups and down and won’t win every time.
One of the biggest mistakes we see is people hopping from one system to another, jumping ship as soon as a strategy has a few losing bets.
Doing so sadly ensures they will never make a profit from their betting because they don’t stick around long enough for losses to be recouped and for the bank to grow.
They are just consistently losing money and do not have the correct mindset for successful betting.
Emotional control is crucial for avoiding impulsive decisions and maintaining a consistent approach to betting.
It helps you stick to your strategy even during losing runs and prevents rash choices that can undermine your long-term success.
It is important to recognise this and to prepare yourself for the inevitable losing runs. Making sure you have a big enough betting bank is crucial, as is not over-staking.
If you can follow these rules, adopt a long-term mindset and use sensible money-management then you have a chance of being successful at betting.
Of course you still need a successful strategy though. Let’s take a look now at the some potential strategies you could use.
Top 5 Best Football Betting Strategies
OK, so let’s take a look at the top five football strategies we have uncovered through our extensive research and testing.
Sports betting requires a structured approach, often utilizing a sports betting system or various betting systems to achieve consistent profits.
These are the approaches that have demonstrated they can generate a market-beating return and whilst there are no guarantees they will do so forever, using a tried-and-tested strategy—such as a football betting system that helps organize your bets and improve your chances of long-term success—is a much better idea than gambling at random or on “gut feelings.”
Strategy One – Follow the Stats
Crunching the numbers and studying stats has been shown to work very well in football betting.
One of the most reliable and consistent strategies for betting on football is to use statistics to guide your selections.
There are a vast amount of resources out there you can utilise these days, with sites like soccerstats and flashscores offering a wealth of data on everything from goal times to shots on target, completed passes and more.
Expert football betting tips often rely on deep statistical analysis and a thorough understanding of football markets to provide informed advice.
You could select stats on specific markets like HT-FT, identifying which sides tend to score more goals in the first or second half, for example.
Some teams are notoriously quick starters in games, where as others tend to only really get going in the second half.
However, the bookies will normally just price the HT-FT market up on the basis of the match odds.
So if you can find teams who stand out in terms of their stats in one half or another, there could be some value in this market.
Another approach which is being used more often these days is looking at “expected goals.”
You can ignore what Craig Burley said when asked about expected goals, dismissing it as “an absolute load of nonsense,” commenting: “I expect things at Christmas from Santa Claus, but they don’t come right?”
Expected goals are in fact an established way of understanding in one simple metric how well a team played and how many chances they created in a game.
If a team is consistently creating chances but failing to score as many goals as they should have, the expected goals stat will express that and could present some value for the astute observer.
Estimating the true probability of an event using such data is crucial for identifying a value bet, as it allows you to spot when bookmaker odds do not accurately reflect the real chances.
One website that has shown it can use stats very effectively is Trade on Sports.
Run by a team of professional traders, they use a vast database of stats from leagues around the world, looking for value bets in-play.
During our live trial of their service they made over £4,000 profit with an excellent strike rate of over 70%.
This was made from following in-play alerts in games where at least one second-half goal was expected.
Their analysis often includes a close look at a team’s performance, which is essential for making informed selections in various football markets.
They have other alerts in the works too which could be just as effective. As well as receiving their in-play alerts, you can also use their huge stats database to devise your own bets and trades and there are instructional videos on how to use the database.
All in all the success of Trade on Sports shows the power of utilising stats and why you should consider using them as the basis of your strategies.
Strategy Two: Back Short-Priced Favourites
Like so much in betting, those who find success often do what seems counter-intuitive – or as professional punter Nick Mordin described it, “going against the crowd.”
Most ordinary punters assume there is no value to be found in backing odds-on shots and doing so is a “mug’s game.”
However, there is a great deal of evidence that exactly the opposite is true, including academic papers from Nottingham University Business School and the Scottish Journal of Political Economy.
Without wading into all the numbers, basically the higher the odds you bet at, the more money you lose over time – or in other words the worse the value is.
While betting at high odds can offer bigger potential payouts, it also comes with greater risk and a lower strike rate compared to backing short-priced favourites.
Various reasons have been postulated for this, but the most plausible is that most punters don’t like backing odds-on shots and therefore bookies are more inclined to offer them value to attract custom, whereas at longer odds they don’t have to as people will bet anyway.
To maximize your potential returns, it is important to always seek the best odds available across different bookmakers.
Strategy Three – Back the Draw
Backing closely matched teams to draw can be a very effective strategy.
A lot of column inches have been devoted online to discussing the lay the draw betting strategy over the last few years.
However, very little attention has been devoted to doing the opposite – backing the draw.
As we have mentioned above, doing the opposite of what most other punters are doing can often prove profitable and this certainly seems to be the case with backing the draw.
The theory behind it goes something like this – very few people back the draw as they much prefer to bet on one team or the other to win a game.
Therefore much as with the favourite-longshot bias, the bookies are often prepared to offer some value on the draw knowing that very few people will back it.
Pre-match analysis is crucial here, as studying team form, statistics, and odds before the game can help identify value in the draw market.
This potential for the draw to hold value was backed up during our trial of JK Diego’s Draw Betting System, which made over $4,300 profit during our six month review.
JK bets solely on the draw and has been refining his strategy for over eight years, identifying the key factors to look for and who are the best teams to follow are.
His results in 2018 were nothing short of spectacular, with over 350 points profit made to 1-point level stakes, or over $35,000 to $100 stakes.
When using in-play strategies, market movements in the correct score market can present unique opportunities, especially when the underdog scores early in the match.
Such underdog scores often cause significant shifts in odds and can allow bettors to lock in profits or adjust their positions accordingly.
Some bettors also use more complex bets, such as combining the draw with other outcomes or betting on specific events, to increase potential returns.
The service has proved very popular and understandably so given those results, so JK has to charge high subscription fees to keep the membership numbers manageable and protect prices for existing members.
JK Diego’s results are some of the best we have ever seen from a football system however so backing the draw does appear to have some considerable merit.
Strategy Four – Lay Weak Away Teams
Some teams don’t travel well and backing them to take a thumping can pay dividends. Placing a lay bet against weak away teams is a popular strategy, as it allows you to profit when these teams underperform.
One of the strongest trends in football is the advantage home teams enjoy over away teams. It is universal in all football leagues around the world.
The reasons are probably various, but the main ones are probably the boost of the crowd and the familiarity of playing on their own turf for the home team and the burden of travelling for the away side.
The last one is backed up by stats showing the further teams have to travel (e.g. in the Champions League when teams have to go over to Russia), the worse they tend to do.
Some teams are particularly bad travellers however, with some notorious examples over the years being Sturm Graz in the Champions League and Fulham in the 2018/19 Premier League, who only won one away game all season.
Certain teams are especially vulnerable away from home and can be targeted for this strategy.
The bookies normally only price matches up according to the relative strength of the teams, not their respective home/away records which offers the opportunity to find some value.
A service which has done that over the years is Football Elite, but sadly they no longer offers match tips.
They focus on laying poor away teams and have shown a strong record over a number of years in doing so.
Some bettors also focus on the half market or first half market to exploit early weaknesses in certain teams, taking advantage of market movements during these periods.
Finding nuances in teams’ home and away form is another good strategy to use in football betting.
Strategy Five – Matched Betting
Matched betting is a tried and tested strategy for those in the UK and Ireland.
This strategy is only available to those in the UK and Ireland unfortunately but it is highly effective in making a profit from football betting.
Basically it involves using the bookies’ free bets and bonuses to make a guaranteed profit regardless of the outcome of a game.
You can do this by laying off a percentage of your bet at the exchanges, using a calculator to work out the exact amounts.
To secure welcome bonuses, you usually need to place qualifying bets that meet specific requirements set by the bookmaker.
Some promotions may require you to place four bets or more to unlock the full bonus potential.
Using multiple bookmakers allows you to maximize the value of these offers and take advantage of different promotions, whereas relying on just one bookmaker can limit your opportunities for better odds and bonuses.
There are matched betting packages like Profit Maximiser which bring together all the hundreds of the bookies’ free bets and show you exactly how to set them up so they can’t lose.
We made a very nice £2,469 profit during our trial of Profit Maximiser.
Some people even do matched betting as a profession and make a very tidy income from it, although it must be stressed a lot of dedication and effort is required if you are going to do that.
It is probably time-limited as well because eventually the bookies will close your accounts, although there are some steps you can take to mitigate that and keep your accounts open much longer.
For those who have access to it though, matched betting is undoubtedly a sure-fire football betting strategy.
Value Betting in Football
Value betting in football is one of the most effective ways to gain an edge over the bookmakers and achieve long-term success.
The core idea behind value betting is to spot situations where the odds offered by bookmakers are higher than the actual likelihood of an event happening.
This means you’re not just betting on what you think will happen, but on where the odds are in your favour.
To identify value bets, it’s essential to conduct thorough research into team form, head-to-head records, and other key factors that can influence the outcome of a football match.
For example, if a team has consistently outperformed their opponents in recent games, but the bookmakers’ odds don’t reflect this, there may be value in backing them.
Similarly, analyzing historical head-to-head records can reveal patterns that the odds may not fully account for.
Comparing bookmakers’ odds is also crucial, as different bookmakers may offer different odds on the same event.
By shopping around, you can ensure you’re always getting the best possible value for your bets.
Over time, consistently placing value bets—where the odds offered are greater than the actual likelihood—can lead to more winning bets and a profitable football betting experience.
Ultimately, value betting is about making smart, informed decisions based on data and analysis, rather than gut feelings.
By focusing on value and maintaining discipline, punters can significantly improve their chances of success in the competitive world of football betting.
Bankroll Management Techniques
A solid football betting strategy isn’t complete without effective bankroll management.
Managing your bankroll means setting a clear budget for your betting activities and sticking to it, regardless of winning or losing streaks.
This discipline is what separates successful punters from those who suffer significant losses.
One of the most popular techniques for bankroll management is the Kelly Criterion, which helps you determine the optimal bet size based on your estimated probability of an outcome and the odds offered by the bookmaker.
By using this method, you can maximize your returns while minimizing the risk of ruin.
Other approaches include flat staking, where you bet the same amount on each selection, or percentage staking, where you risk a fixed percentage of your bankroll on each bet.
Good bankroll management also means setting limits for yourself and avoiding impulsive bets, especially after a loss.
This helps prevent chasing losses and keeps your betting strategy on track.
With a well-managed bankroll, you can confidently explore different betting strategies, such as arbitrage betting or the lay the draw system, without putting your entire bankroll at risk.
Ultimately, proper bankroll management is the foundation of long-term success in football betting.
It allows you to weather losing runs, take advantage of value opportunities, and steadily grow your betting bank over time.
In-Play Football Betting
In-play football betting has revolutionized the way punters engage with the sport, offering the chance to place bets as the action unfolds.
This dynamic form of betting requires a keen understanding of the game and the ability to react quickly to changing circumstances on the pitch.
Successful in-play betting strategies often involve monitoring live statistics, watching the match, and identifying moments when the odds shift in your favour.
For example, the lay the draw strategy is popular in in-play betting, especially when an early goal changes the dynamics of the match.
Similarly, backing over or under goals can be profitable if you spot trends such as a high tempo or defensive frailties during the game.
Time decay is another factor to consider in in-play betting. As the clock ticks down, the odds for certain outcomes—like the next goal or the final result—change rapidly.
By staying alert and making well-timed decisions, you can capitalize on these shifts and secure better odds.
In-play football betting is all about staying engaged, analyzing the flow of the match, and placing bets at the right moment.
With the right approach, it can be a highly rewarding addition to your overall football betting strategy.
Betting Strategies for Different Leagues
Not all football leagues are created equal, and the best football betting strategy often depends on the specific league or competition you’re targeting.
For instance, the Premier League is known for its unpredictability and high level of competition, making it essential to focus on team form, head-to-head records, and even weather conditions when placing bets.
In contrast, European competitions like the Champions League may require a deeper analysis of a team’s performance on the continental stage and their tactical adaptability.
Adapting your betting strategies to suit different leagues can significantly enhance your chances of success.
For example, some leagues are more prone to draws, while others see more goals on average.
By specializing in a particular league or competition, you can develop a deeper understanding of the teams, players, and unique factors that influence results.
Staying informed about injuries, suspensions, and tactical changes is also crucial, as these can have a major impact on the outcome of football matches.
By tailoring your approach and focusing on the nuances of each league, you can develop the best football betting strategy for your chosen markets and consistently find value in your bets.
Staying Up-to-Date with Football Betting News
In the fast-paced world of football betting, staying up-to-date with the latest news and developments is essential for making informed decisions.
Keeping track of team news, injuries, suspensions, and player form can provide a crucial edge when evaluating betting opportunities.
Thorough research is key—analyzing recent performances, studying head-to-head records, and monitoring trends can all help you spot value and avoid costly mistakes.
Additionally, following expert betting tips and advice from experienced tipsters can offer valuable insights and highlight opportunities you might have missed.
By combining up-to-date information with proven betting strategies and disciplined bankroll management, you can increase your chances of long-term success in football betting.
Remember, the more informed you are, the better equipped you’ll be to make smart, profitable bets in the ever-evolving football market.
Conclusion – the Best Football Betting Strategies
Making a profit from football is not easy and the bare facts are that over 98% of people lose money when betting on the beautiful game – perhaps not so beautiful for them!
Specializing in a specific league allows you to track more games and gain deeper insights, which can lead to more informed betting decisions.
To join those 2% of people who make a profit from their football investing, you need to have a clear strategy and stick to it over the long term, whilst accepting there will be losing runs along the way.
Advanced bettors may also explore exotic bets and complex bets to diversify their strategies and potentially increase their returns.
There are some great football betting strategies out there and we have illustrated five of the best we have found above.
They have all demonstrated a clear profitable edge over the market in the long term and deserve a great deal of respect for that.
Whether you decide to follow any of the strategies above or to develop your own, using a football betting system or sports betting systems can help you manage risk and improve long-term profitability.
Betting systems, such as those involving multiple bets or structured approaches, are essential tools for disciplined and successful betting.
Please make sure you gamble responsibly and only risk money you can afford to lose.
