Hedging Betting Strategy: A Comprehensive Guide for Smart Bettors

When it comes to betting the goal is simple: make a profit with minimal risk. This is where a hedging strategy comes in.

Used by experienced bettors, hedging is a calculated way to make a profit – or at least limit a loss no matter what happens.

In this article we’ll break down the basics, the pros and cons and give you practical examples of how to use this strategy.

What is Hedging?

Hedging in betting is a strategy that involves spreading risk across multiple outcomes by placing additional bets to secure a profit or minimise losses, regardless of the final result.

Example 1: You bet £50 on a football team to win at odds of 3.00. If they take the lead and their odds shorten to 1.50, you can place a lay bet on them at 1.50 to guarantee a profit no matter the final outcome.

Example 2: You back a tennis player to win a tournament at 10.00 odds. They reach the final, and their odds drop to 2.00. You can then bet on their opponent to spread your risk and lock in a profit or limit potential losses.

Example 3: You back three horses in a race at the top of the market to try and cover multiple angles rather than just backing one horse. 

 

Why Use a Hedging Strategy?

1. Spreading Risk: by covering more than one outcome, you are giving yourself a better chance of making a profit – albeit reducing the potential profit you could make.  
2. Risk Management: To protect your bankroll by limiting losses if the original bet doesn’t go your way.
3. Guaranteed Profit: In some cases hedging can make a profit regardless of the outcome if a trade goes your way.
4. Flexibility: It allows you to adjust to changing odds and events in real-time, perfect for in-play betting.

How does it work?

1. Make Your Initial Bet: Back your chosen market, such as a tennis tournament, football match or horse race.
2. Monitor the Event: Watch the odds change as the event unfolds. They can change due to goals, injuries or other game dynamics.
3. Calculate Your Hedge: Based on the new odds work out how much to back the other outcome to balance your position.
4. Place the Hedge: Back the other outcome and cover your initial stake and lock in a profit or limit losses.

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Example: Hedging in Football

A simple hedging trade would be in-play in a football match. 

Here for example is a match between Leverkusen and Roma with odds from the Betfair exchange.

Let’s say you layed the draw at 3.95 at the start of the match for £10:

Now the match goes in-play and Leverkusen go 1-0 up.

The draw odds jump to 5.9, giving you the chance to hedge your original bet and back the draw, to guarantee a profit whatever happens.

You could click the “cash out” button here for £32.78, leaving you with a profit of £3.28 whatever happens. 

 

Example: Hedging in Horse Racing

Another way that hedging can be used is in horse racing. 

Let’s say there’s a race where there two or three horses you think have a strong chance of winning the race, whilst you consider the others “no hopers.” 

You can’t decide which of the three is most likely to win the race however, so rather than backing just one horse (or sitting the race out), you could split your stake across the three horses.

Here for example is a race from Dundalk in Ireland. There are three horses at the top of the market priced between 3.7 and 6.0. 

None are outstanding favourites but all look to have a decent chance. So if you fancied these three horses and thought the winner would be highly likely to come from those horses, you could split your stake across the three selections:

Betfair allows you to split your stake easily by clicking on the “stake[?]” tab on the betslip: 

This brings up a box and you can then enter the total stake you want to place across the three horses in the box, then click “OK.”

It then works out the relevant amounts to give you an equal amount across the three horses.

So in this case you would have hedged your bets in this race and covered three horses rather than just backing one. 

It is much like the phrase “not having all your eggs in one basket.”

In this case, the favourite Perfect Judgement won the race, giving a profit for the hedge of just over £5 for a £10 stake. 

Some racing experts like to use this approach when they consider a race is likely to be run in a certain way.

For example in a fast run race where pace horses are likely to dominate from the front, they might want to hedge the pace horses in the race to give a decent shot of coming out with a profit. 

 

Hedging in Other Sports

This hedging approach can be used in other sports aswell. Tennis is a sport were hedging can work effectively, when betting on the winner of a tournament for example.  

For a long time, just three or four players dominated men’s grand slam tournaments: Federer, Nadal, Djokovic – and for a time, also Murray. 

Hedging your bets across these players would have given you a very high frequency of winners – albeit with reduced profits compared to backing just one of them per grand slam tournament.

These days it looks like a new group of players is emerging to dominant the game, led by the likes of Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner. 

If we look at the odds for the Australian Open for example, it is these two at the top:

If you just wanted to hedge those two, you could do so and get a return of around £4.65 for a £10 stake.

Alternatively if you wanted to include Zverev, you would get a return of around £2.48 for a £10 stake. 

Naturally, you might have a slight preference for one player but still want to keep the other two onside as a safety net in case your favoured player didn’t win.

For example, if you wanted to stake a total of £10 while aiming for the highest return if Alcaraz won the tournament, you could allocate £5 to him and £2.50 each to Sinner and Zverev.

There are countless ways to structure your selections and staking, but these are two fundamental hedging strategies that can help you spread your risk and increase your chances of securing a profit from an event.

 

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Hedging During the Event

Another way to use hedging is as a risk-management tool during an event, once your position has started to develop.

For example, let’s say you were betting on the Women’s Australian Open, with the following starting odds:

If you backed Iga Swiatek at the start at 4/1 (5.0) and she performed well, reaching the semi-finals where her odds shorten to evens (2.0), you might feel that while she has progressed far, she isn’t playing at her best and could be vulnerable to a rising star.

To reduce your risk, you could hedge your bets.

There are two main ways to do this: you could either lay Swiatek on a betting exchange or back one or more of the remaining players.

If you opt for the simpler approach of laying Swiatek, you might decide to lock in an equal profit regardless of the outcome.

For instance, if you initially backed Swiatek with £10 at 5.0, and now want to hedge at 2.0 for a guaranteed profit, here’s how you could do it on Betfair:

By laying Swiatek for £25 at odds of 2.0, you would secure a £15 profit no matter what happens, effectively hedging your position successfully.

Alternatively, you might prefer to create a no-loss position—where if Swiatek doesn’t win, you break even, but if she does win, you pocket £30.

There are numerous variations in between, but the core principle remains the same: reducing risk and covering more potential outcomes.

This approach is commonly used by professional traders who focus on predicting odds movements they can capitalise on, rather than solely predicting the final outcome of an event.

 

Hedging the Correct Score – Football

One of the most popular hedging strategies in football betting involves the correct score market.

The appeal of this approach lies in its flexibility—it allows you to back multiple outcomes, which can either be left to run as bets or traded in-play as the match unfolds.

For instance, if you expect a team to win but anticipate a tight, cagey contest, you might hedge by backing 1-0 and 2-0 while adding some insurance on 0-0 in case the game ends in a stalemate.

This strategy has been particularly effective with teams like Atlético Madrid in recent seasons, as they have a track record of grinding out narrow, low-scoring victories.

Here for example is the correct score market of their upcoming game against Leganes:

By hedging the 0-0, 0-1 and 0-2 scorelines you would have a profit of around £15.20 from a £10 stake if any of these scorelines hit.

This gives you some coverage of a low-scoring Athletico win and a goalless draw, rather than just trying to predict a single score. 

For those looking to take correct score hedging to the next level, advanced strategies are available through services such as Goal Profits and Football Trading Profits, which refine this approach by covering multiple outcomes and trading them dynamically during the match.

 

Summary – Types of Hedging

Hedging can be applied across a variety of betting scenarios then, each with its own strategic considerations:

• Pre-Match Hedging: This approach involves placing hedge bets before an event begins. It is particularly useful when odds fluctuate significantly due to team news, injuries, or market movements. For example, if you back a football team at 3.00 and their odds drop to 2.50 before kickoff, you can place a lay bet to lock in a profit regardless of the outcome.
• In-Play Hedging: A dynamic strategy where bets are adjusted in real-time as the event unfolds. This requires quick decision-making and an ability to react to sudden changes such as goals, red cards, or injuries. For example, if you bet on over 2.5 goals in a football match and two early goals are scored, you can hedge by backing under 2.5 goals to guarantee a return.
• Outright Market Hedging: Often used in futures markets, such as tournament winners or season-long bets. Bettors hedge by backing multiple participants at different stages to ensure a profit or reduce risk. For example, if you back a tennis player at 10.00 pre-tournament and they reach the final with odds of 1.80, you can hedge by betting on their opponent.
• Arbitrage Hedging: A risk-free betting strategy that exploits discrepancies in odds between bookmakers. By placing bets on all possible outcomes with different bookmakers, you can guarantee a profit. This is often done using software that scans the market for arbitrage opportunities.

Benefits of Hedging

There are various potential benefits to hedging, including: 

• Lower Risk: The primary advantage of hedging is that it minimises potential losses by covering multiple outcomes.
• Guaranteed Winnings: In optimal scenarios where a trade goes in your favour, hedging can ensure a profit, regardless of the result.
• Control and Choice: Bettors can adjust their positions as new information emerges, giving greater flexibility.
• Less Stress: Since hedging involves covering more than one outcome, it makes betting a more controlled experience with a greater chance of achieving a return (albeit a lower one than if just one outcome is backed).

Drawbacks of Hedging

There can also be some drawbacks to hedging however. These include: 

• Lower Winnings: While hedging reduces risk, it also means sacrificing the full potential profit from an original bet.
• Complex Calculations: Finding the right hedge stake requires mathematical accuracy, especially in live betting situations. Thankfully most exchanges and bookies have cash-out options these days to reduce this complexity. 
• Limited Availability: Not all betting markets provide hedging opportunities, particularly in illiquid markets. 
• Additional Costs: Multiple bets can increase the amount staked, or if the amount staked is the same can reduce the potential profit. 

Tools for Hedging

Modern technology has made hedging more accessible, with various tools designed to streamline the process:

• Bet Calculators: Online hedge calculators allow you to quickly determine the optimal stake for each outcome.
• Betting Exchanges: Platforms like Betfair and Smarkets enable bettors to lay bets, making hedging straightforward.
• Live Odds Trackers: These provide real-time updates on odds changes across different bookmakers, helping bettors identify hedging opportunities.
• Mobile Betting Apps: Many betting apps now include features like in-play betting and cash-out options, enhancing the hedging experience.

Hedging vs. Cash Out

Hedging and cash-out are similar in concept but differ in execution:

• Hedging: Involves placing additional bets to manually adjust your position and secure a profit or reduce risk.
• Cash Out: Offered by bookmakers and exchanges, this allows bettors to settle their bet early for a guaranteed return. However, when using the bookies to cash out, the payout can be less favorable than manually hedging through exchanges or multiple bets.

While cash-out is convenient, savvy bettors often find that manually hedging gives them better returns.

Is Hedging Right for You?

Hedging is best suited for bettors who prioritise long-term stability over high-risk, high-reward betting. It is particularly effective for:

• Bankroll Management: Those with larger bankrolls can hedge effectively as it sometimes requires extra funds.
• Volatile Markets: Sports like football, tennis, and horse racing often present excellent hedging opportunities due to fluctuating odds.
• Strategic Bettors: Those who prefer consistency and controlled betting rather than seeking big wins.

Tips for Getting Started with Hedging

• Start Small: Experiment with hedging on low-stake bets to build confidence and understand how odds move.
• Monitor Odds Closely: Utilise live odds trackers to identify the best hedging opportunities.
• Use Betting Exchanges: Exchanges typically offer better odds and greater flexibility for laying bets.
• Stay Disciplined: Avoid over-hedging, as excessive hedging can reduce potential profits.
• Refine Your Strategy: Continuously review past bets and results to improve your hedging approach over time.

By mastering hedging strategies, bettors can take a more calculated approach to wagering, ensuring long-term profitability and reduced risk.

Conclusion

Hedging is a great tool in a bettor’s toolbox as it allows you to manage risk and spread your bets across more than one outcome. 

While it may reduce overall winnings compared to letting bets ride, it provides a structured approach to bankroll management and enhances betting discipline.

Whether you’re hedging pre-match, in-play, or across outright markets, using the right tools and techniques can significantly improve your betting results.

By understanding the nuances of hedging and practicing with smaller stakes, you can develop a sustainable and profitable betting strategy that stands the test of time.