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Site that Predicts Football Matches Correctly

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The thrill of football isn’t just in watching the matches but also in the anticipation and speculation surrounding the outcomes.

Football enthusiasts worldwide invest a significant amount of time trying to predict match results, whether it’s for friendly banter, fantasy leagues, or sports betting.

With the rise of data analytics and machine learning, predicting football outcomes has become more sophisticated.

Several online platforms now claim to accurately forecast the results of football matches, offering predictions based on various models and algorithms. But what does it mean for a site to “predict football matches correctly”?

Let’s dive into the world of football prediction websites and explore what makes an accurate football prediction site stand out.

 

What is a Football Prediction Site?

A football prediction site is an online platform designed to provide users with accurate and reliable predictions for football matches.

These sites leverage advanced algorithms, statistical analysis, and expert insights to forecast the outcomes of football matches, aiding users in making informed betting decisions.

Whether free or paid, football prediction sites often offer a variety of features, including match previews, team statistics, and betting tips.

By analysing vast amounts of data and employing sophisticated models, these platforms aim to predict football matches correctly, enhancing the betting experience for enthusiasts around the world.

 

Can a Site Really Predict Football Matches Correctly? 

The first question to consider is whether any site can really predict football matches correctly. 

In reality, no site is going to be able to be correct 100% of the time.

Even with the most sophisticated AI algorithms and the most up-to-date information, football is just too unpredictable and has too many variables for any site or system to predict matches accurately all the time. 

The question is more how often a site can accurately predict football matches – and more importantly, what kind of return it can generate. 

A site that predicts matches correctly 50% of the time, but generates a 10% return on investment is better than a site that predicts matches correctly 70% of the time but generates a negative return.

As with all forms of prediction and betting, it is about getting better odds than the real chances of an event happening – or in the other words, value. 

So when we talk about looking for sites that predict football matches correctly, that is the key element to focus on.

 

The Evolution of Football Prediction Platforms

Football prediction isn’t a new phenomenon. Fans have been guessing match outcomes since the sport’s inception.

However, what began as a gut-feeling activity has evolved into a complex science.

The internet has allowed numerous platforms to emerge, offering predictions based on in-depth analysis and statistics.

In the early days, predictions were primarily made by pundits, tipsters and analysts based on their experience and intuition.

With the advent of big data, things have changed dramatically. Today, many sites use algorithms that consider various factors such as team form, player statistics, head-to-head records, weather conditions, and even psychological factors like team morale.

These models often employ machine learning techniques to improve over time, learning from previous matches to refine future predictions.

 

How to Know if a Site Predicts Football Matches Correctly

You may see a site that provides football predictions but it is often difficult to tell how accurate their predictions are.

Some sites don’t even publish their results and of those that do, some do not tell the whole story… 

To determine if a football prediction site consistently predicts matches correctly, it’s essential to rely on independent review platforms like ours.

We meticulously track and analyze the performance of various prediction platforms over time, providing objective assessments of their accuracy.

By verifying predictions against actual outcomes, review sites like ours offer a transparent evaluation that goes beyond the claims made by the prediction sites themselves.

Moreover, we often delve into the methodology behind the predictions, scrutinizing the data sources, algorithms, and analytical tools used by each site.

To be able to compare prediction sites and measure their performance more accurately, we use metrics like:

  • Strike rate – also known as “win rate,” expressed as a percentage of the bets placed. 
  • ROI (return on investment) – measures the profitability of all bets made by a site by calculating the percentage of return relative to the initial amount invested.
  • Bank growth – refers to the increase in the total amount of money in a betting account over time, indicating the success and sustainability of a betting strategy.
  • Availability of odds – how accessible or consistent the betting odds are compared to the advised odds. Some sites post odds that collapse quickly and are difficult for members to obtain.
  • Overall P/L (profit and loss) – tracks the total financial gain or loss from all bets placed, showing whether a bettor is ultimately making or losing money.

We have tested out hundreds of football prediction sites so know which ones are genuinely worth following for the accuracy of their predictions and which are best off avoided. 

This makes review platforms like ours an invaluable resource for anyone looking to find a trustworthy site that consistently delivers accurate football predictions.

 

Leading Sites for Football Predictions

Several websites have gained prominence for their ability to predict football matches accurately.

These are all sites we have independently verified have a proficiency at predicting football matches.

Here are the top 5 sites to have proven they can predict football matches correctly:

 

5. Footballer Tips

Footballer Tips, a service within the Tipstrr network, specializes in the goals markets, similar to the Goal King. They provide reliable football tips, focusing on over/under bets, both teams to score (BTTS), and Asian handicap goals.

Their recommendations span a wide variety of football leagues, including some lesser-known ones where liquidity may be limited. Consequently, it’s important to maintain a range of bookmaker accounts to secure optimal odds when following their advice.

What distinguishes Footballer Tips is their exceptional reliability, offering some of the most consistent results among football tipsters. Since beginning their tipping in the summer of 2020, they have generated profits exceeding £10,000 to £25 per point stakes.

With a solid strike rate of 42%, meaning just under half of their bets have been successful, and an impressive return on investment (ROI) of 12%, they have consistently delivered strong performance metrics over nearly three years.

A standout feature of Footballer Tips is their consistent profitability, having achieved positive returns in all but six months during their almost four-year run.

This level of consistency is a rare accomplishment in football prediction and is worthy of significant recognition.

 

4. Trade on Sports

Trade On Sports is a service highly regarded for consistently delivering strong results over the years.

A key differentiator for Trade On Sports is its extensive football league database, known as the “Gamestate App,” which provides comprehensive coverage of leagues across the globe, offering football betting tips that are both accurate and reliable.

This app thoroughly examines data from thousands of matches, focusing on how goals, particularly early ones, influence the flow of a game.

For instance, an early goal might prompt a team to play more openly and expansively, while a goal just before half-time can significantly alter a match’s momentum.

Leveraging the vast data analyzed by the Gamestate App, the Trade On Sports team has crafted a range of strategies.

One standout tactic is the Half-Time Overs Bot, which pinpoints games with a high likelihood of at least one second-half goal, often occurring late in the match.

During our live trial of the HT Overs Bot, it delivered an impressive profit of £5,120 with £100 stakes, achieving an excellent 67% strike rate, reflecting a high rate of successful bets.

In addition to this, Trade On Sports has developed multiple strategies, covering various goal markets such as over/under 2.5 goals, laying the draw, backing the away team, and pre-match trading.

What truly sets the Trade On Sports team apart is their relentless dedication to innovation and the continuous development of new strategies aimed at maximizing return on investment (ROI).

Their consistent success and strong performance have rightfully earned them a reputation as one of the top football prediction services in the industry.

 

3. The Inside Man

To succeed in predicting football matches, having insights from the bookmaker’s side can provide a significant edge. That’s exactly what sets the next site on our list, The Inside Man, apart by offering reliable and accurate football predictions.

The predictions are offered by Adam Cheng, who previously worked at the bookmaker Fitzdares, eventually rising to the position of head of football trading.

This role gave him unique experience in both setting odds as a bookmaker and trading in football markets, which helped generate additional profits for the company.

In early 2020, Adam transitioned to a full-time professional gambler and has been thriving ever since.

Since launching The Inside Man, Adam has achieved a profit of over 150 points, with a return on investment (ROI) of 10%.

His strike rate is equally impressive at 52%, meaning that more than half of his bets have been successful.

In our own trial of the service, we have been very impressed, having made a profit of over 50 points so far.

The service is simple to follow, offering 5-10 bets per week, with most selections focusing on match odds, Asian handicap, and player passes markets.

In conclusion, The Inside Man is a top-tier football prediction site and one of the best we’ve come across in recent years.

 

2. The Footy God

A football prediction site that has shown an uncanny knack for predicting matches correctly is The Footy God. 

Based out of the Betting Gods tipster platform, this service has flown out the blocks since it launched, netting over 80 points profit so far. 

That would be over £2,000 profit at £25 per point stakes.  

The win rate of the bets has been very high at 74% and the ROI (return on investment) has been pretty mind-blowing at 38% thus far. 

Bets mainly come in the Asian Handicap and over/under markets, with other markets such as BTTS and Half-Time/Full-Time also used.

They cover leagues from all around the world, including the big European leagues which are their main focus. That means generally good liquidity on the markets they bet on where prices tend to hold up better than in niche leagues and markets. 

There are few sites we’ve seen over the years with such a strong ability to predict football matches correctly than The Footy God. 

 

1. Predictology

For a soccer prediction site that has shown an unparalleled ability to predict football matches accurately, look no further than Predictology.

In today’s football betting landscape, punters are inundated with a vast array of statistics, tools, and information available online.

Although this abundance of data is a major step forward from the past, the real challenge lies in sifting through it to uncover valuable insights and craft profitable betting strategies.

That’s where Predictology excels. This platform is designed to help users navigate the data effectively.

With a database that boasts over 350,000 football matches and 68 global competitions, Predictology empowers users to create and refine profitable football strategies. It’s unlike any other football prediction site we’ve encountered.

Predictology offers pre-built strategies, crafted by their expert team for immediate use, as well as the option for users to dive into the database and use filters to develop their own systems.

The platform provides a wealth of features, including:

  • System Builder – analyze over 350,000 matches to create winning strategies
  • Match Analysis – daily shortlist of top matches for betting and trading
  • Predictions – drawn from 35 prediction models
  • In-play alerts – instant notifications when a match meets your criteria
  • Best bets – selected predictions with an average ROI of 12%
  • Value trades – daily value trading reports highlighting potential opportunities.

During our live test of Predictology, where we followed the pre-designed strategies provided via daily email selections, the results were remarkable. These strategies generated 38 points in profit with a win rate of 52%.

The platform supports a broad range of strategies across more than 50 leagues worldwide.

Moreover, Predictology has recently introduced automation options (available at an additional cost), enabling users to set up and run systems effortlessly.

In today’s fiercely competitive betting environment, staying ahead is essential, and Predictology provides the tools necessary to achieve that.

It’s a goldmine of resources for anyone seeking to elevate their football betting strategies.

This excellence earned Predictology the title of Best Football Service in our Members’ Choice Awards 2023.

Given its impressive offerings and the potential to follow winning predictions or build your own, there truly is nothing else quite like Predictology.

 

How to Predict Football Matches Correctly

Predicting football matches correctly is both an art and a science. Here are some essential tips to help you predict football matches accurately:

  1. Analyse Team Statistics: Examine the team’s past performance, including their wins, losses, and draws. Historical data can provide valuable insights into a team’s consistency and overall strength.
  2. Check the Team’s Current Form: Look at the team’s recent performance, including their last few matches. A team in good form is more likely to continue performing well.
  3. Consider the Team’s Head-to-Head Record: Review the team’s past performance against their opponents. Some teams have a psychological edge over others, which can influence the match outcome.
  4. Check the Team’s Injuries and Suspensions: Assess the team’s current injuries and suspensions, as these can significantly impact their performance.
  5. Use Advanced Algorithms: Utilize advanced algorithms, such as machine learning and artificial intelligence, to analyze large datasets and make more accurate predictions.

By combining these strategies, you can improve your ability to predict football matches correctly and make more informed betting decisions.

 

Benefits of Using a Reliable Football Prediction Site

Using a reliable football prediction site offers several significant benefits:

  1. Increased Accuracy: A dependable football prediction site provides accurate predictions, helping you make well-informed betting decisions.
  2. Time-Saving: These sites save you time and effort by analysing team statistics and other data on your behalf.
  3. Improved Betting Experience: With accurate predictions, you can make more informed decisions, increasing your chances of winning and enhancing your overall betting experience.
  4. Access to Expert Insights: Reliable prediction sites often provide expert insights and analysis, offering a deeper understanding of the factors influencing match outcomes.

By leveraging the expertise and advanced tools offered by a reliable football prediction site, you can enhance your betting strategy and enjoy a more rewarding experience.

 

Key Features of a Reliable Prediction Site

To understand what makes a site good at predicting football matches correctly, it’s essential to consider the elements that contribute to its reliability:

  1. Data Collection and Analysis: The backbone of any prediction model is the data it uses. The best sites collect vast amounts of data from multiple sources, ensuring a comprehensive overview of the factors influencing a match. This data is then analyzed using complex algorithms that identify patterns and trends that might not be obvious to the human eye.
  2. Algorithm Accuracy: The heart of prediction lies in the algorithms used. Advanced models incorporate a wide range of variables, from team formations and injury reports to more abstract factors like home-field advantage or referee biases. The accuracy of these algorithms is continually tested and refined through machine learning, which allows them to adapt and improve with each new match.
  3. Transparency and Track Record: A reliable prediction site will be transparent about its methods and past performance. Users should be able to see the site’s track record, with clear statistics showing how often predictions are correct. Some sites even offer live updates and predictions in real-time, giving users confidence in their accuracy.
  4. Expert Analysis: While data-driven models are crucial, the human element should not be underestimated. The best prediction sites combine algorithmic predictions with insights from football experts who can interpret the nuances that numbers alone might miss. This hybrid approach ensures a well-rounded prediction that accounts for both quantitative and qualitative factors.
  5. User Feedback and Community: A robust user community can provide valuable feedback that helps improve the site’s predictions. Sites that allow users to discuss predictions, share insights, and challenge the algorithms can foster a more dynamic and accurate prediction environment.

 

Types of Football Predictions

Football predictions come in various forms, each offering unique insights into potential match outcomes:

  1. Match Predictions: Forecasts for the outcome of a specific match, including the winner, score, and other possible results.
  2. Over/Under Predictions: Predictions for the total number of goals scored in a match, often used in over/under betting markets.
  3. Both Teams to Score Predictions: Predictions on whether both teams will score in a match, a popular market for bettors.
  4. Correct Score Predictions: Predictions for the exact score of a match, offering higher odds but requiring precise forecasting.
  5. Accumulator Predictions: Predictions for multiple matches combined into a single bet, often used for accumulator bets to increase potential returns.

Understanding these different types of football predictions can help you choose the best betting strategy for your needs.

 

The Role of AI and Machine Learning in Football Predictions

Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have revolutionized the world of football predictions. These technologies allow for the analysis of vast amounts of data quickly and efficiently, leading to more accurate predictions.

  1. Pattern Recognition: AI algorithms excel at recognizing patterns in data. In football, this might mean identifying how a team performs under specific conditions, such as playing at home after a loss. Machine learning models can sift through historical data to find correlations that might not be apparent to humans.
  2. Real-Time Analysis: One of the significant advantages of AI in football predictions is the ability to process data in real-time. This allows for live predictions that can adjust as a match progresses, offering a dynamic and up-to-date forecast.
  3. Learning from Mistakes: Machine learning models improve over time by learning from their mistakes. If a prediction turns out to be wrong, the model can analyze what went wrong and adjust its parameters to increase accuracy in the future.


Challenges and Limitations of Prediction Sites

Despite the advances in technology, predicting football matches remains an inherently uncertain endeavor. Several factors contribute to the challenges faced by prediction sites:

  1. Unpredictable Human Element: Football is a game of emotions, and the human element can be unpredictable. A team’s motivation, a player’s moment of brilliance, or a referee’s decision can all swing the outcome of a match in unexpected ways.
  2. Injuries and Last-Minute Changes: A key player getting injured during a warm-up or a sudden change in weather can drastically alter the dynamics of a match. Prediction models may struggle to account for these last-minute variables.
  3. External Factors: Events outside the pitch, such as a team’s financial problems or internal conflicts, can affect performance. These are often difficult to quantify and include in prediction models.


Conclusion: The Future of Football Predictions

The quest for accurately predicting football matches is both a science and an art.

While no site can claim to be 100% accurate, the integration of AI, machine learning, and expert analysis has significantly improved the reliability of football predictions.

As technology continues to evolve, we can expect even more sophisticated models that can predict outcomes with greater precision.

For fans, these sites offer not just a tool for betting or fantasy football but a deeper understanding of the game itself.

By analyzing predictions, fans can gain insights into the factors that influence match outcomes, enhancing their appreciation of the beautiful game.

As football continues to captivate audiences worldwide, the demand for accurate predictions will only grow.

The future may hold even more advanced platforms, with AI-driven models providing real-time, highly accurate forecasts that bring fans even closer to the action.

Whether for fun or profit, the art of predicting football matches is here to stay, evolving alongside the game itself.

 

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Sports Betting Bankroll Management Tips from Pro Tipsters

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Betting strategy is only half the battle when it comes to sports betting. The other half is bankroll management.

Even the best tipsters in the world would lose if they didn’t manage their bankroll.

In this article we’ll go through the top bankroll management tips from pro tipsters to help you ride the ups and downs of sports betting and make long term profit.

What is Sports Betting Bankroll Management?

Bankroll management in sports betting means how you allocate and control your funds over time.

It’s a process that ensures you bet within your means so you can stay in the game long enough to take advantage of winning runs and the good betting times.

Rather than betting on a whim, bankroll management sets rules for how much to bet on each bet based on your bankroll.

Why is this important? Because even the best punters have losing streaks.

Without a good bankroll management system you can blow your whole balance in a few bad bets.

Betting is about the long term and good bankroll management helps you ride the waves of luck without going under.

There’s a few myths about bankroll management like it’s only for high rollers or professional punters. In reality it’s for all punters, to reduce risk and maximise gain.

The Golden Rule: Never Bet More Than You Can Afford to Lose

One of the golden rules all pro tipsters live by is simple: never bet more than you can afford to lose.

This means setting a clear, realistic budget for your betting and sticking to it no matter what.

First of all determine how much disposable income you have to put into sports betting.

This is money you can lose without affecting your daily expenses, bills or savings.

Once you’ve done that it’s important to separate your betting funds from your personal funds.

Keeping your betting bankroll separate helps you to control and prevents you from using money meant for other things to chase losses.

Responsible betting has psychological benefits too. It helps you to bet with a clear head, knowing you’re not betting more than you can afford, reducing the stress and anxiety that comes with gambling.

Unit Betting System: Keep it Consistent

One of the most popular staking methods among pro tipsters is the unit betting system.

This system involves betting a consistent percentage of your bankroll on each bet, called a “unit” or “point.”

A unit (or point) is usually 1-2% of your total bankroll.

So if you had a $1,000 bankroll for example, each bet would be $10 (1%) or $20 (2%).

Here is an example of how to operate percentage staking:  

Example of a Percentage Staking System:

Let’s say you have a bankroll of $2,000, and you decide to stake 2% of your bankroll on each bet.

– Initial Bankroll: $2,000
– Stake per Bet (2%): $40

If your bankroll increases to $3,000 after a good run, your stake adjusts accordingly:

– New Bankroll: $3,000
– Stake per Bet (2%): $60

If your bankroll decreases to $1,500, you reduce your stake:

– New Bankroll: $1,500
– Stake per Bet (2%): $30

By using a percentage staking system, you protect your bankroll during losing streaks and scale your bets as your bankroll grows.

The unit betting system is simple. It helps you to be consistent and disciplined, no single bet can wreck your bankroll.

And by adjusting your unit size as your bankroll grows or shrinks you can manage risk.

The Kelly Criterion: A Tipster’s Best Friend

Another approach professional bettors use to calculate the optimal bet size is the Kelly Criterion. It maximises profit while minimising risk.

The formula is:

Kelly % = (BP – Q) / B

Where B is the decimal odds, P is the probability of winning and Q is the probability of losing.

In simple terms the Kelly Criterion tells you to bet more on bets where the odds are in your favour and less on those where the advantage is smaller.

Many tipsters swear by it as it stops them from making impulsive decisions based on gut feel.

However it’s worth noting the Kelly Criterion isn’t without its flaws. The formula is based on the accuracy of your probability estimates which can be hard to gauge.

If you get the numbers wrong you can end up betting too much or too little.

Bankroll Growth Strategies: Compound Interest for Punters

Once you’ve got the basics of bankroll management down you can start thinking about growth strategies.

One such strategy is to reinvest your profits rather than withdraw them. By keeping your profits in your bankroll you allow it to grow over time, just like compound interest in a savings account.

The power of compound growth can grow your bankroll rapidly. But you need to find a balance. Some punters withdraw part of their profits and reinvest the rest.

A common approach is to withdraw a percentage of your winnings when you reach certain milestones or at certain points in time (for example at the end of the year) so you can still enjoy your profits while growing your bankroll.

As your bankroll grows so can your base unit size and you can bet bigger while still managing risk.

Dealing with Losing Streaks: Don’t Chase Losses!

Losing streaks are part of sports betting. Even the best punters will go through tough times so having a plan in place for dealing with them is crucial.

The key is not to chase losses. That’s when you increase your stakes to try and get back what you’ve lost.

This is a dangerous strategy that often leads to even bigger losses. Instead stay disciplined and stick to your betting plan, adjust your bet sizes if needed.

Some pro tipsters recommend reducing their stakes during losing streaks to protect their bankroll, others stick to their approach and try to weather the storm.

Either way managing your emotions and being patient is key.

Diversification: Don’t Put All Your Eggs in One Basket

A common mistake among punters is to focus all their bets on one sport, league or type of bet.

While specialisation can be good, it also increases the risk of downturns. To protect your bankroll diversification is key.

Spread your bets across different sports, leagues and tipsters to balance your portfolio.

By diversifying you reduce the risk of a single losing streak wiping out your bankroll.

Diversification also allows you to balance high risk bets with safer, more consistent bets which can smooth out the ups and downs of betting.

However, it’s also important to make sure you have an adequate betting bankroll to follow multiple tipsters or betting strategies.

It’s recommended to keep a separate bankroll for each tipster and ensure that each one is large enough to withstand losing streaks and drawdowns.

Here’s an example of how to manage your bankroll if you had $5,000 and wanted to follow five different tipsters at the same time:

How to Follow Multiple Tipsters with a $5000 Bankroll

If you’re following five tipsters with a total bankroll of $5000 for example, you can allocate $1000 to each tipster.

Here’s how you can manage it:

  • Total Bankroll: $5000
  • Tipsters: 5
  • Bankroll per Tipster: $1000

For each tipster:

  • Allocate a dedicated bankroll of $1000.
  • Use sensible staking strategies, such as a 1-2% stake per bet, which would mean betting $10-$20 per selection.
  • Ensure each bankroll is kept separate, so you can track performance individually and avoid depleting one bankroll by covering for losses of another.

This approach helps manage risk and allows each tipster’s performance to be evaluated independently.


Record Keeping: Track Your Bets Like a Pro

One of the habits of professional tipsters is their record keeping.

By tracking every bet you make you can see patterns, strengths and weaknesses in your strategy and make better decisions over time.

The key metrics to track are the bet amount, odds, outcome and profit/loss for each bet. There are several apps and tools available to track your bets such as bettin.gs or Trademate Sports.

By reviewing your betting data regularly you can see trends and make informed adjustments to your bankroll management strategy and improve your overall performance.

Bankroll Protection: Win and Loss Limits

Bankroll management isn’t just about how much you bet, it’s also about when to stop. Setting win and loss limits is a great way to protect your bankroll from wild swings.

Daily, weekly or monthly limits can stop you overbetting during hot streaks or chasing losses during bad runs.

If you hit your pre-set loss limit it’s time to take a step back, reassess and come back with a clear head.

Same with winning streaks, setting a win limit will stop you from getting overconfident and making silly bets.

Taking breaks and not getting “tilt”—betting emotionally after a loss—will keep your bankroll intact in the long run.

Using Bonuses and Promotions Wisely

Most bookmakers offer a range of bonuses and promotions to attract punters but knowing how to use these into your bankroll management strategy is key.

Bonuses can add value but read the terms and conditions carefully. Some bonuses come with strict wagering requirements that may not be worth it in the long run. This can sometimes be the case with casino bonuses in particular. 

So it’s important to read the full terms of the offer and understand the wagering requirements of any offer. 

It it requires you to wager the bonus 20x, 50x or more then quite simply it may not be worth it. 

Standard bookie free bet offers don’t tend to be so stringent though. Even with those however it’s important to check the terms and conditions so you aren’t caught out.  

Setting Realistic Goals

Set achievable goals based on your bankroll.

For example, a 5-10% monthly growth target might be reasonable, but it’s important to avoid unrealistic expectations, which could lead to poor decisions.

Remember that it’s long-term tipster performance that counts, not their results over the last few days or weeks. 

Keep your focus on their long-term results over the course of a year or more.  

Knowing When to Stop Following a Tipster

If a tipster experiences prolonged losing streaks, it may be time to stop following them.

Keep an eye on long-term trends and avoid emotional decisions based on short-term results.

By following these principles, you can better manage your bankroll, mitigate risk, and evaluate the value of each tipster you follow.

 

Conclusion – Managing your Bankroll Like a Pro

By following these tips from the pros you’ll not only protect your bankroll but be well ahead of the vast majority of punters who tend to bet erratically with no thought of managing their bankroll. 

Remember sports betting bankroll management is all about discipline, patience and making informed decisions.

Stick to these and you’ll be giving yourself the best chance of coming out on top in the wild world of sports betting.

 

 

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Oddschecker Review

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We take a look at Oddschecker.com, one of the top odds comparison sites on the internet and assess how you can get the most out of it to aid your betting.

Although comparison websites for just about everything are commonplace nowadays and taken for granted, when Oddschecker was set up in around the year 2000, the idea of having a website that allowed you to compare prices was quite novel.

The development of Oddschecker has been crucial for its growth and technological advancement in the betting industry.

The bookies must have hated the idea initially, but it appears with time they have come to accept it and actually seen it as a way to acquire business – free advertising if you like.

For the punter, odds comparison sites were a godsend, allowing you to see the prices for a match, race or event all in one place rather than trawling though each bookmaker’s site individually.

As time has gone on, the sites have become more sophisticated and the accuracy of prices has improved.

But how does Oddschecker measure up and how can it help your betting?

Bet Basket

One feature you should definitely make use of with Oddschecker is the Bet Basket, which allows you to check which bookie offers the best odds for an accumulator.

Just click the basket with the + sign next to the name of the selection and it will be added to your acca.

Settings

You can choose how you want the odds shown on Oddschecker – on the left hand sidebar under “Site Settings” you can choose for the odds to be fractional, decimal, U.S. or how much you will win with a certain stake.

Plus you can adjust the exchange commissions to show the correct amount of commission.

Market Reports

A good feature of Oddschecker is their market reports, which tell you the selections that are steaming (reducing in odds) or drifting (increasing in odds) the most.

If you are interested in where the money is going and market confidence in certain horses or teams, this is a helpful service.

These are provided for football, horse racing, golf, tennis and other sports.

Most Popular Bets

On the homepage of the site you can see the most popular bets being placed for the day, which gives you a quick sense of how the markets are moving. Plus there is a list of the big events. 

TV Sports Calendar

Another useful part of the Oddschecker website is the TV Calendar feature. This lets you see what sporting events are coming up on all the various sports channels there are these days, helping you to plan which ones to watch (and possibly bet on).

Calculators

There are also calculators on the Oddschecker site that enable you to work out your dutching, hedging or even “hutching” options.

Betting Tips

There is a large section of the site devoted to tipping covering a range of different sports. 

Number of bookmakers

At last check there were 23 bookmakers on Oddschecker and 3 exchanges. This includes all the familiar high street bookies like Ladbrokes, William Hill and Coral as well some less familiar names like Titan Bet and Marathon Bet.

Importantly, none of the major names missing, which is the main thing and means you are getting full coverage of the major bookmakers so don’t really need to do any additional searching.

However, those outside the UK may like to see the odds of Pinnacle, who have closed their doors to UK customers but are still one of the major names in bookmaking.

Speed of Odds Updating

Although much improved in recent times, one of the major weaknesses of odds comparison sites has been the speed at which odds update – sadly not quite fast enough!

There is nothing more frustrating than seeing a really good price then clicking through to the bookmaker and seeing it is actually much less.

Oddschecker is quite good on this now with prices generally up to date but there is the occasional one that is not.

You would have thought technology existed to make this instant but alas not! We await the day when it is…

A critical solution to this challenge is transitioning from an on-premise data center to a cloud-based infrastructure, which enables greater flexibility and scalability.

Odds Comparison and Features

Oddschecker stands out as a premier odds comparison website, offering users a robust platform to compare and analyze odds across a multitude of sports, events, and betting markets.

The site is designed to cater to both novice and seasoned bettors, providing a wealth of features that enhance the betting experience.

Users can access expert tips, in-depth analysis, and insights on upcoming events, which are invaluable for making informed betting decisions.

Additionally, the site offers historical data and statistics, allowing users to delve into past performances and trends.

With its comprehensive odds comparison tool, bettors can effortlessly find the best odds available, ensuring they maximize their potential returns.

Whether you’re interested in football, horse racing, tennis, or any other sport, Oddschecker is a vital resource for anyone looking to stay ahead in the betting game.

User Experience and Reviews

When it comes to user experience, Oddschecker has garnered a mix of reviews. Many users appreciate the site’s comprehensive platform and the array of features it offers, such as odds comparison and detailed analysis tools.

These elements make it a go-to resource for bettors seeking to make well-informed decisions.

However, some users have pointed out areas where the site could improve. Issues such as slow loading times and occasional inaccuracies in the odds and data provided have been noted.

Despite these criticisms, Oddschecker remains a popular choice among bettors. Its extensive range of services and the ability to compare odds from multiple bookmakers make it an indispensable tool for many users.

The site continues to attract a loyal user base who rely on its features to enhance their betting strategies.

Site Performance and Security

Site performance and security are crucial aspects of any online platform, and Oddschecker is no exception. Some users have reported frustrations with slow loading times and occasional errors, which can hinder the overall user experience.

Additionally, concerns about data protection and privacy are prevelant these days, highlighting the importance of robust security measures.

Its ongoing attention to such issues demonstrates Oddschecker’s commitment to providing a secure and efficient platform for its customers, reinforcing its position as a trusted name in the betting industry.

Sports betting strategy

Betting Tipsters: Your Secret Weapon for Winning Wagers in 2024

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When it comes to sports betting, many punters often feel like they’re rolling the dice, hoping for the best.

But what if you could turn the odds in your favour?

Enter betting tipsters – the experts who analyse stats, trends, and form to provide you with well-researched predictions.

These days with an ever-growing variety of sports and betting options, tipsters are more valuable than ever.

Let’s explore how tipsters betting can become your secret weapon for consistent, informed wagering success.


Tipsters for Betting 101: Who Are They and What Do They Do?

Betting tipsters are professional sports prediction experts who specialize in providing the best betting tips, often backed by deep statistical analysis and industry knowledge.

These individuals, or sometimes teams, dedicate their time to studying games, tournaments, and players, offering insights that casual bettors might miss.

Betting predictions are shaped by expert analysis and various factors, including team performance, statistics, and game conditions, to provide bettors with informed betting tips.

There are various types of betting tipsters:

  • Sport-specific tipsters focus on one sport, such as football betting tipsters, horse racing tipsters, or tennis betting experts.
  • Generalists offer tips across a range of sports but may not delve as deeply into each one.
  • Value bet tipsters are those who specialize in spotting opportunities where the bookmakers have set odds that don’t accurately reflect the true probability of an event happening.

Betting tipsters use various methods to analyse games, often relying on form, player injuries, head-to-head stats, and other performance indicators.

Some modern tipsters also employ betting algorithms or statistical analysis software to predict outcomes, enhancing their ability to provide reliable betting advice.

Technology has revolutionised the world of betting tipsters.

From advanced prediction tools to tipster betting software platforms, modern tipsters have access to more data and better forecasting methods than ever before.

This combination of human insight and technology-driven predictions has made betting tipsters a key part of many punters’ betting strategies.

 

Top 10 Betting Tipsters

In the world of sports betting, having the right guidance can make all the difference, and these top ten betting tipsters have consistently demonstrated their ability to deliver profitable insights and strategies.

These are all tipsters we have tested out here on the site at Honest Betting Reviews under live trial conditions. 

Only the very best have stood up to the test and made it on to this top 10 list! 

 

10. The Inside Man

  • Sport: Football
  • Return on Investment (ROI): 10%
  • Win Rate: 52%

The Inside Man is a football tipster with a unique advantage, having previously worked as a bookmaker.

Adam Cheng, the man behind The Inside Man, was formerly the Head of Football Trading at Fitzdares.

In this role, he didn’t just set the odds for the bookmaker but also traded football markets to boost profits.

In 2020, Adam transitioned to becoming a full-time professional gambler, and his results have been impressive since then.

According to Bet Chat’s website, he has generated over 150 points of profit with a 10% ROI.

With a 52% win rate, more than half of his bets have been successful so far.

From our own experience, The Inside Man service has been outstanding, earning us over 60 points during our trial.

The service is easy to follow, with 5-10 bets per week, mainly focusing on match odds, Asian handicaps, and player pass markets.

Overall, The Inside Man is a top tipster and a service well worth considering.

 

9. Patrick Ross Tennis

  • Sport: Tennis
  • Return on Investment (ROI): 12%
  • Win Rate: 63% (Spartan Trading Tips)

Run by renowned tennis expert Patrick Ross, this service stands out from typical tennis betting offerings.

The service includes the Tennis Goldmine betting system, which Patrick designed to lay players based on specific criteria.

During our live trial, the system delivered 28 points profit with a 10% ROI.

In addition to the Tennis Goldmine system, Patrick provides his own betting tips and Spartan Trading Tips, which earned 71 points in our trial.

It’s worth highlighting that his trading tips have reportedly turned a 100-point bank into 1,500 points, demonstrating the effectiveness of his methods.

This level of success showcases Patrick’s analytical skills and deep knowledge of tennis.

Over the years, Patrick Ross has generated significant profits and is widely regarded as one of the top tennis betting experts.

 

8. Racing Intelligence

  • Sport: Horse Racing
  • Return on Investment (ROI): 14%
  • Win Rate: 40% 

Racing Intelligence earns a position in our rankings of the best tipsters for betting by adopting a distinctive and non-traditional approach compared to most tipsters.

Rather than relying on conventional methods such as form analysis, this service sets itself apart by obtaining tips from an “insider” employed at a major UK bookmaker.

Although claims of “inside information” can often be met with doubt, our live trial validated Racing Intelligence’s integrity, delivering outstanding results.

Throughout the trial, the service produced a remarkable 192 points profit at advised prices and 76 points profit at Betfair SP.

Looking at its long-term track record, Racing Intelligence is comparable to the industry’s elite, having accumulated over 1,000 points profit at advised prices and 500 points at Betfair SP.

With such impressive performance across both advised prices and BSP, Racing Intelligence justifiably secures a prominent position in our rankings.

 

7. Ben Coley – The Sporting Life

  • Sport: Golf
  • Return on Investment (ROI): N/A
  • Win Rate: N/A

The lead golf tipster at The Sporting Life is Ben Coley, a highly regarded and well-known figure with a history of notable wins, making him a favorite among golf punters.

Ben had a successful 2020, landing big wins such as Marc Warren at 150/1 in the Austrian Open, Sami Valimaki at 250/1 in the Oman Open, and Cameron Smith at 50/1 in the Sony Open.

While 2019 wasn’t one of his strongest years, Ben was profitable in the three preceding years, which is commendable. He bounced back impressively in 2021, 2022, and 2023, bringing his overall profits to +2,385 points.

Throughout his career, Ben has secured some massive wins, including one at 300/1!

These are remarkable accomplishments, but it’s important to recognize that securing Ben’s advised prices can be a challenge. Due to his popularity (and the fact that his tips are free), many punters struggle to get the same odds and often have to settle for lower prices.

This isn’t a reflection on Ben—if anything, it speaks to the quality of his tips.

Even with the odds drop that often occurs, Ben has more than earned his reputation as one of the top names in sports tipping.

 

6. Bet Alchemist

  • Sport: Horse Racing
  • Return on Investment (ROI): 13%
  • Win Rate: 15% 

Under the expert leadership of Nicky Doyle, The Bet Alchemist has consistently demonstrated its value over the years.

Since its launch in 2012, the service has generated a total profit of just over 820 points.

This averages out to an impressive annual profit of 72 points, equating to approximately £3,620 in profit when using £50 stakes.

A key highlight of The Bet Alchemist is its focus on widely available prices, rather than solely chasing the highest odds.

This makes it easier for members to match the advertised results, a significant advantage over many other tipsters.

In our own trial, The Bet Alchemist delivered a solid profit of 38 points, with a strong 26% ROI.

The service particularly shines during major racing festivals, with an impressive track record of landing big-priced winners.

It has secured victories at odds of 25/1, 66/1, 33/1, and more at prestigious events like Cheltenham.

Following the service is simple, with most bets provided on weekends and during major race meetings.

In recent years, The Bet Alchemist has been on a hot streak, delivering 109 points of profit in 2023 and over 100 points so far in 2024.

With its consistent performance and reliability, it is a valuable asset to any betting portfolio.

The Bet Alchemist’s long-standing success makes it a trusted option for bettors looking for a dependable tipster service.

 

5. Premium Boxing Tips

  • Sport: Boxing
  • Return on Investment (ROI): 13%
  • Win Rate: 66% 

Premium Boxing Tips ranks high on our list as the gold standard for boxing tipsters, boasting an impressive track record in this niche.

Since 2015, the service has accumulated 800 points in profit—equating to £8,000 if you were staking £10 per point, a substantial return.

With a 66% strike rate and 13% ROI, Premium Boxing Tips has maintained excellent performance over an extended period.

What really sets this service apart is its methodical approach. It’s all about uncovering value in the markets and placing well-researched, strategic bets.

As highlighted in our full review, Premium Boxing Tips is known for its consistency and reliability. The profit graph is a testament to that, showing a steady upward trend since the service began—something many tipsters aspire to achieve.

During our trial, the service delivered 117 points in profit, and its results have continued to impress beyond our review period.

The tips cover a range of markets, including outright winners, method of victory, and round betting, with a focus on identifying undervalued odds.

With years of experience and a data-driven, analytical approach, Premium Boxing Tips ensures every selection is grounded in facts. It’s truly a top-tier sports tipster.

 

4. Scottish Confidential 

  • Sport: Football
  • Return on Investment (ROI): 10%
  • Win Rate: 43% 

Scottish Confidential is a tipster service dedicated exclusively to Scottish football.

Run by a university-educated mathematician based near Glasgow, the tipster behind this service boasts an impressive and diverse background.

He has worked at major bookmakers, served as a proprietary trader for an Asian private investment syndicate, and acted as a consultant for a quant-driven hedge fund specializing in Scottish betting markets.

His deep local knowledge of teams, players, and their motivations has made him a sought-after expert in the field.

The results speak for themselves: Scottish Confidential has delivered over 200 points in profit with a 43% strike rate and a 10% return on investment (ROI).

We’ve followed this service for four years and can verify that the reported results are accurate and consistently excellent.

The tipster primarily focuses on match odds (1X2) but also explores markets such as over/under 2.5 goals, draw no bet (DNB), and double chance (DC).

From the Scottish Premiership to League Two, Scottish Confidential has achieved outstanding profits over the years, leveraging its unparalleled knowledge of Scottish football.

This makes Scottish Confidential a top service for those not only interested in Scottish football but also in making consistent profits from sports betting.

 

3.  Hanbury Racing

  • Sport: Horse Racing
  • Return on Investment (ROI): 31%
  • Win Rate: 19% 

Hanbury Racing, a relatively new addition to the tipster scene, has quickly gained attention since its launch in 2020.

Operating on the Mega Tipsters platform, this service has become known for landing winners at odds of 100/1 and even higher.

To date, Hanbury Racing has achieved over 1,500 points in profit, which equates to more than £15,000 with £10 per point stakes.

While the service holds a solid 19% strike rate, its most impressive feature is the 31% return on investment (ROI).

Richard Hutchinson, the expert behind Hanbury Racing, brings extensive horse racing knowledge, which is evident in his detailed write-ups.

His expertise was further validated when he won the Tote Ten To Follow Jumps competition in 2020.

During our live trial, Hanbury Racing delivered outstanding performance, generating 238 points of profit with a 27% ROI.

Notably, they also secured a 100/1 winner during the trial—one of the biggest wins we’ve ever recorded.

Hanbury Racing’s exceptional success in recent years firmly places it high on our list of top tipsters.

 

2. The Golf Insider

  • Sport: Golf
  • Return on Investment (ROI): 30%
  • Win Rate: 11%

Coming in at number two on our list of the top betting tipsters is The Golf Insider, which boasts an impressive track record spanning seven years.

Renowned for uncovering substantial winners at high odds, The Golf Insider consistently delivers exceptional results.

Since launching their tipping service in 2014, they have achieved over 2,000 points in profit, amounting to £20,000 if you were staking £10 per point—a remarkable return.

What truly distinguishes The Golf Insider is their impressive 30% ROI, a level of performance that is exceptional in any sport.

During our live trial, they recorded winners at 150/1 and 50/1, concluding with a total profit of 406 points.

Some of The Golf Insider’s most significant victories include odds of 150/1, 200/1, 125/1, and beyond, showcasing their skill in identifying undervalued players.

Their computer model and value ratings consider critical statistics such as strokes gained off the tee, greens in regulation, and putting performance.

With a long-term record of success and consistent results over the years, The Golf Insider’s expertise and knowledge are beyond question.

Given their outstanding performance and longevity, it’s no surprise that The Golf Insider so high on our list of the best tipsters for betting.

 

1. The Bookies Enemy

  • Sport: Horse Racing
  • Return on Investment (ROI): 12%
  • Win Rate: 19% 

The Bookies Enemy currently sits at the top of our rankings of betting tipsters, having earned this distinction through an exceptional track record and outstanding performance.

The service is operated by Gary Poole, a seasoned professional punter with more than 20 years of experience.

In 2022 alone, The Bookies Enemy achieved over 300 points in profit, boasting an impressive ROI exceeding 40%.

Gary continued this success with an additional 150 points in profit in 2023, further enhancing the service’s reputation.

What sets The Bookies Enemy apart is its ability to meet all the criteria of a top-tier tipster.

First, the returns have been remarkable, with a staggering £26,000 in profit accumulated at £25 per point stakes since 2017, alongside significant profits during Gary’s tenure as a private tipster.

Second, the service maintains a solid strike rate of 20% and a 14% ROI, demonstrating consistent performance over the past six years.

Third, The Bookies Enemy has exhibited impressive consistency, with a high percentage of winning months and profitable years.

Finally, the service is easy to follow, typically providing just a few bets each day. Tips are usually posted the evening before the races, allowing ample time to place your bets.

During our live trial, The Bookies Enemy delivered over 104 points in profit over three months, showcasing its effectiveness.

With sustained success and excellent results, The Bookies Enemy is highly recommended and rightfully deserves its top-ranking position in this list of the best tipsters for betting.

 

 

The Good, The Bad, and The Scammy: How to Identify Reliable and Profitable Tipsters

The sports betting world is not without its shady characters, and unfortunately, this includes some betting tipsters.

The challenge is finding reliable sports tipsters who are genuinely knowledgeable and trustworthy.

Here’s how to separate the good from the bad:

  1. Trustworthy betting tipsters have a verified track record. They should be able to show historical results, either through a third-party verification service such as this site or on public forums. Verified tipster track records offer transparency and help you assess their tipster accuracy rates and tipster win percentages.
  2. Be wary of tipsters making outrageous profit guarantees or offering “sure wins.” Sports betting is never a guarantee, and anyone claiming otherwise is likely misleading you. Tipster scam prevention involves spotting these kinds of claims early.
  3. A good tipster will always be transparent about both wins and losses. The best tipsters may not win every bet, but over time, they should demonstrate a positive tipster ROI analysis (return on investment).

Many reliable tipsters also provide information on free bets, which are promotional offers allowing users to place wagers without risking their own money.

To find reliable betting tipsters, look for profitable tipsters with proven track records and the benefits they offer, such as exclusive insights and expert advice.

You can use tipster comparison websites such as this one, where you can read reviews and performance data for verified tipsters.

Additionally, social media platforms and betting tipster forums are invaluable resources for discussing tips and identifying which tipsters consistently deliver.

 

Maximizing Your Profits: Betting Strategies for Following Tipsters

Once you’ve found a good tipster, the next challenge is knowing how to maximize your returns from their advice.

Bankroll management is essential when following tipsters. You’ll need to allocate your betting funds in a way that allows for both risk and longevity.

Many bettors use a bankroll strategy where they bet a fixed percentage of their total bankroll on each tip, usually between 1% and 5%. This limits losses while allowing for long-term growth.

Another key to success is learning how to interpret and act on a tipster’s advice. Blindly following tips without understanding the reasoning behind them can be risky.

Balancing multiple tipsters’ recommendations can also enhance your strategy, as long as their advice aligns and doesn’t contradict.

While following tipsters, it’s important to also develop your own skills. Learn about the sports you’re betting on, study betting markets, and continue to evolve.

This way, you can become less reliant on tipsters over time and better assess their suggestions.

 

The Psychology of Following Betting Tipsters: Mindset for Success

Betting, especially when relying on tipsters, is as much about psychology as it is about strategy. Managing your mindset is crucial to long-term success.

First, it’s essential to manage your expectations. No matter how reliable a tipster is, there will be losses.

Building discipline and patience is key to ensuring that you don’t make impulsive bets after a losing streak.

Avoid chasing losses, which is one of the most common psychological pitfalls in betting.

Moreover, adopting a long-term perspective will help you maintain emotional balance. Focus on the overall trend rather than individual wins or losses.

Betting tipsters often perform best over a longer timeframe, so it’s important to stick with their strategies, even during down periods.

 

Betting Tipsters Across Different Sports: A Comprehensive Guide to Sports Betting

Tipsters aren’t one-size-fits-all. The best tipster for football may not be the best for horse racing or tennis.

Let’s take a closer look at how betting tipsters perform across different sports:

  • Football betting tipsters often specialize in major leagues, offering advice on markets like accumulator bets, in-play betting, and value bets. Football is a data-rich sport, so tipsters here often rely on statistical models to predict outcomes.
  • Horse racing tipsters are prized for their ability to analyse form, track conditions, and jockey performance. Unlike other sports, where team stats are more significant, individual factors like the horse’s health and trainer play a huge role.
  • Tennis betting experts typically focus on individual matchups and surface preferences, offering insight into player form and head-to-head records.

Additionally, platforms offering free football tips can be invaluable for both new and experienced bettors, providing a variety of tips to help make informed and profitable betting choices.

Seasonality plays a big role too.

For example, tipster performance tracking in sports like football and tennis may show dips during off-seasons or tournament transitions.

Meanwhile, emerging trends in niche sports like esports betting are presenting new opportunities for bettors.

 

The Business of Betting Tipsters: Services, Subscriptions, and Free Tips

When choosing a betting tipster, you’ll have two main options: paid tipster services or free betting tips.

Paid tipster services often come with a subscription fee, and their tips are usually more detailed, with a focus on maximizing returns.

However, before signing up for any paid service, it’s important to conduct a tipster services comparison.

Assess whether the subscription cost is justified by the tipster’s profit margins, tipster customer support quality, and the tipster selection criteria they use.

On the other hand, many free platforms provide useful tips, but the quality is often inconsistent.

Leveraging the best free betting tips from experienced tipsters with verified track records can be crucial for both novice and seasoned bettors.

Leveraging free tips can be a good way to supplement paid services or test out a tipster before committing to a subscription.

Additionally, free super tips offer zero-cost betting predictions across various sports, backed by extensive research and expert tipsters, providing actionable insights to enhance your betting strategies.

 

Responsible Betting

At HonestBettingReviews, we prioritize responsible betting practices to ensure a safe and enjoyable experience for all users.

We understand that sports betting can be a fun and exciting way to engage with your favourite sports, but it’s essential to maintain a responsible approach to avoid potential risks.

Here are some key principles to keep in mind:

  • Set a budget: Establish a budget for your betting activities and stick to it. This will help you avoid overspending and minimize the risk of financial difficulties.
  • Know your limits: Be aware of your own limits and don’t bet more than you can afford to lose. It’s essential to recognize when you’re on a losing streak and take a break.
  • Don’t chase losses: Avoid chasing losses by betting more to recoup your losses. This can lead to a vicious cycle of debt and financial problems.
  • Take breaks: Take regular breaks from betting to reassess your strategy and maintain a healthy perspective.
  • Seek help: If you’re struggling with problem gambling, seek help from a reputable organization or support group. We provide resources and support for users who need assistance.

By following these responsible betting principles, you can enjoy sports betting while minimizing the risks. Remember, betting should be a form of entertainment, not a way to make a living.

Additional resources:

At HonestBettingReviews, we’re committed to promoting responsible betting practices and providing a safe and enjoyable experience for all users.

 

Conclusion – Betting Tipsters Today

These days the world of sports betting is more competitive than ever, and a top-notch betting tipster could be the secret to gaining an edge.

Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just starting out, tipsters can transform your betting approach, offering you well-researched insights and improving your odds of winning.

But remember, success comes from combining the right tipster betting discipline techniques with a smart strategy and the proper mindset.

The key to victory isn’t just in finding the right tipster, but in how you use their advice to elevate your betting game.

 

 

AI vs sports tipsters

The Rise of AI in Sports Prediction: Is AI Better than Tipsters?

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For years sports betting has been a world where tipsters ruled the roost, using a combination of skill, stats, analysis, hard work and sometimes even just a bit of good old-fashioned human intuition.  

But with the advent of technology, particularly artificial intelligence (AI), the world of sports prediction has started to change.

Now AI powered systems are challenging human tipsters and the debate is on as to which one is more accurate and better value.

In this article we’ll look at the evolution of sports prediction, the science behind AI systems and answer the question: is AI better than tipsters? 

The Evolution of Sports Prediction: From Gut Feelings to Algorithms

Sports betting has been around for centuries, from a simple bet between friends to the multi-billion dollar industry it is today.

Early predictions in betting were often based on gut feel and some knowledge of the sport.

Professional tipsters emerged in the 20th century and offered bettors calculated predictions based on their expertise.

With the advent of data analytics in the 21st century a new era began. Numbers and patterns started to join human insight.

Artificial intelligence in sports betting has taken this data-driven approach to a whole new level.

Machine learning sports prediction models can now process vast amounts of data in real time, crunching reams of data almost instantly. 

The rise of AI and machine learning in sports prediction has led to more complex systems that claim to outperform the best human tipsters.

But can AI really surpass the expertise and human experience that tipsters bring to the table?

How AI Sports Prediction Works: The Science Behind the Scores

AI sports prediction is driven by machine learning algorithms that use big datasets to find patterns and make predictions.

These algorithms are trained on historical data such as player stats, team performance, head-to-head records and even weather conditions.

By learning from this data AI systems can make predictions more accurately.

One of the key benefits of AI is its ability to process real-time sports data analysis.

For example automated sports prediction systems can track live updates during a game and adjust their predictions accordingly.

This level of responsiveness gives AI a big advantage over traditional methods where predictions were made before a game and stay static.

Neural networks for game prediction are thought to be one of the most promising forms of AI, as they are designed to mimic the human brain’s learning process.

So based on this you would think AI would be the answer to all our betting-related problems, right? 

Certainly the AI enthusiasts would like us to believe so. 

IBM’s Watson is a much-heralded example of using AI in sports prediction and it has been used to predict match outcomes in tennis to show the potential of AI betting accuracy.

However, its results do not appear to have performed particularly well and there is scant evidence yet that it is able to produce a positive return when predicting match outcomes. 

This is true of much AI in sports prediction – a lot of hype and excitement, but little sign yet it can actually deliver the goods in terms of producing profitable predictions. 

The Human Touch: Understanding the Role of Tipsters

While AI is trying to change the world of sports prediction, human tipsters still have a big part to play in the betting world.

Tipsters bring experience and inside knowledge, often tapping into factors that are hard for machines to quantify.

Human tipsters can build relationships with bettors and offer personalised advice and understand their preferences.

One of the main strengths of tipsters is their ability to consider psychological factors, team morale, a player’s form, or even internal strife within a club.

These can be key to predicting outcomes and expert tipster strategies often include intangibles that AI misses.

And the relationship between bettors and tipsters is built on trust. People want to follow experts they feel understand the sport more.

The human touch in sports forecasting can create a loyal following that AI may struggle to replicate.

AI vs Tipsters: A Head to Head Comparison

When comparing AI sports prediction vs tipsters you need to consider many factors.

In terms of accuracy rates, tipsters still outperform AI, perhaps because they are able to factor in the human element to betting that AI cannot.

AI generated betting tips benefit from being free from emotional bias, being based solely on data.

But human tipsters are more adaptable. While AI can struggle with unexpected events like a last minute player injury, human experts can adjust their predictions quickly.

Whilst historical data is the backbone of AI, it doesn’t account for anomalies. A seasoned tipster however sees an opportunity in those.

In terms of speed and volume however, AI wins hands down. Automated bots can produce predictions for multiple games in seconds, whereas human tipsters take time to research and analyse each game.

But that speed can sometimes come at the cost of the nuance that only a human touch can bring.

In terms of results, human tipsters are way ahead at the moment. 

Across a whole range of sports, there are top quality verified tipsters who have produced a profit over long periods of time.  

These are tipsters we have tested ourselves under live trial conditions and verified their results.

For each sport below there are numerous high quality tipsters:

So that’s a good number of first-rate, verified tipsters who have proven their ability to beat the bookies over an extended period.

However, turning to AI we have only come across one service so far – in any sport – that has produced positive results and that is football AI prediction platform Predictology.

As we remarked when looking at the Best AI Football Predictions, there are a large number of AI prediction websites out there but very few have published their results – let alone had those results verified. 

It is therefore very difficult to know if they are any good or not. You would think if they were profitable though, they would be very keen to publish their results.  

So the reality is there is a huge amount of work to do for AI to do to catch up with expert tipsters. 

Perhaps one day it will do so, but for the time being human tipsters clearly still rule the roost.  

AI Sports Prediction Pros and Cons

Pros:

  • Objectivity: AI is bias free, it makes predictions based on data only.
  • Data Processing Power: AI can process huge amounts of data in real time to make informed predictions.
  • Consistency: AI doesn’t get tired or distracted, it can perform at the same level consistently.

Cons:

  • Lack of Intuition: AI can’t factor in team morale or psychological factors. 
  • Algorithmic Bias: AI systems can develop bias based on the data they are trained on.
  • Historical Data: AI is heavily reliant on past data, it can’t predict the unexpected.

Human Tipster Strengths and Weaknesses

Pros:

  • Proven results: There are numerous tipsters with verified, profitable long-term records.
  • Intuition: Human tipsters can make judgement calls based on experience and the human element to betting.
  • Adaptability: Tipsters can adjust predictions based on new information in real time.
  • Understanding of Intangibles: Human experts can factor in psychological and emotional aspects that AI might miss.

Cons:

  • Emotional Bias: Human predictions can be influenced by personal preferences or bias.
  • Limited Data Processing: Humans can’t process as much data as AI, potential blind spots.
  • Inconsistency: Tipsters have good and bad days and can be affected emotionally by losing runs, potentially impacting the quality of their tips.

AI in the Sports Betting Industry

AI is slowly starting to change the sports betting landscape. AI powered odds calculation is becoming more prevalent, with bookies using it to produce more accurate odds.

Sports betting algorithm development has also led to new AI driven platforms that offer bettors real time betting recommendations based on continuously updated data.

Platforms like Predictology for example use AI and machine learning to provide detailed predictions and betting insights.

It utilises a database of over 350,000 football matches worldwide to create and refine football strategies.

From this dataset the AI is able to produce football predictions which are provided to members. 

This is one of the few examples we have come across so far of AI sports predictions that actually appear to be effective. 

If AI models like this can be developed and improved upon further, then they have the potential to change how bettors approach their betting. 

However, for the time being the jury is still out on whether AI can challenge the skills of expert tipsters. 

Hybrid Prediction Models: A Future Option?

Rather than choosing between AI or human tipsters, the future may be a hybrid approach that combines the best of both.

AI assisted tipster services are already emerging where human experts use AI tools to enhance their predictions.

Hybrid prediction models can offer bettors a more complete view of upcoming games: AI’s data driven insights, plus human intuition.

As AI sports prediction platforms evolve we may see more human tipsters and AI systems working together to produce more effective predictions.

AI Sports Prediction Ethics

As with any new technology there are ethical considerations. Transparency in AI decision making is key to fair play and to prevent manipulation.

Bettors need to know how predictions are made and if there is any bias in the algorithms.

Another concern is the impact on traditional tipsters. As AI gets better human experts could be displaced.

But by using AI as a tool rather than a competitor tipsters could potentially enhance their own services and stay relevant in the changing betting landscape.

Summary – AI vs. Sports Tipsters

While AI has made significant strides in the world of sports prediction, it’s clear that human tipsters are still leading the way.

AI brings impressive data-crunching abilities and can process vast amounts of information in real time, but it lacks the intuition and adaptability that expert tipsters provide.

The future might lie in a hybrid approach, combining the analytical power of AI with the human touch to deliver even better predictions.

For now, though, tipsters remain the go-to choice for consistent, reliable advice in sports betting.

 

 

Under 2.0 Goals in Football Betting: What Does “Under 2” Mean?

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Football betting has many markets to suit different strategies and tastes.

One of the most popular among those who like low scoring matches is the “under 2.0” bet.

But what does this mean and how can you use it in your betting strategy?

In this article we will go deep into the under 2 meaning and explore strategies for under 2 goals betting.

 

What is Under 2?

At its simplest, betting on “under 2.0” means you are predicting fewer than 2 goals will be scored in a football match.

This is a low scoring market for matches where defensive tactics or weather conditions will limit goal scoring opportunities.

But under 2 means more than just fewer than 2 goals.

Its exact meaning is as follows:-

  • If a match ends with two goals scored, your bet is a push. In this case your stake is refunded as neither the over nor under bet has won.
  • If the match finishes 0-0, 1-0 or 0-1 your bet wins.
  • If 3 or more goals are scored your bet loses.

Here is a table summarising how the under 2.0 bet works: 

Match Outcome Under 2.0 Bet Result
0-0, 1-0 or 0-1 Win
2-0, 0-2, 1-1 Push (stake returned)
2-1, 3-0, 3-1, etc Loss

So it’s pretty straightforward – ultimately you are hoping for one goal or less to be scored if backing under 2.0 goals, but if there are two goals you get your money back.

 

Real-Life Examples of Under 2.0 goals

Let’s say there’s a Premier League match between Liverpool and Man City.

If you bet on “under 2” and the score is 1-0, you win your bet.

But if the score is 2-0 or 1-1 your stake is refunded – referred to as a “push.” 

The under 2.0 goals bet is often used in matches where both teams play defensive football and don’t tend to concede – or score – many goals.

 

Under 2.0 vs Under 2.5

One of the common mistakes among newbies is the difference between under 2.0 goals and under 2.5 goals.

The main difference is that with under 2.5 goals you can win if the match ends with two goals, while under 2.0 goals means if the match ends with two goals your bet is a push.

Here is the difference between the two in table format:

Criteria Under 2.0 Goals Under 2.5 Goals
Winning Outcome 0-0, 1-0, or 0-1 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 2-0, 0-2, 1-1
Push (stake returned) 2-0, 0-2, 1-1 N/A
Losing Outcome 1-2, 3-0, 2-1, etc 2-1, 3-0, 1-2, etc

So the under 2.5 goals is a safer option in that it pays as a winner if the match ends 2-0, 0-2 or 1-1 for example, but the odds will be lower on under 2.5 goals to reflect that. 

 

Typical Odds for Under 2.0 Goals Bet

The odds for an under 2.0 goals bet will typically be at odds-against. 

For example, in a match between England and Greece, the odds for under 2.0 goals is 3.0 (odds from the Betfair Exchange by clicking on the “Goal Lines” market and using the arrows to navigate up and down).

That compares to odds of 1.97 for under 2.5 goals and odds of 4.1 for the under 1.5 goals.

So in summary for the England v Greece match that’s:

  • Under 1.5 goals: 4.1
  • Under 2.0 goals: 3.0
  • Under 2.5 goals: 1.97

 

Get free tips from pro tipsters here.

 

Under 2.0 Goals Mechanics

Understanding how under 2.0 goals betting works from a technical standpoint is key to making informed decisions and improving your chances of success.

Let’s break down how this type of bet functions and how bookmakers calculate the odds.

How Bookmakers Set Odds for Under 2 Goals

The odds for under 2.0 goals are set based on many factors like goal expectancy in football matches, team form and tactics.

For example bookmakers will look at whether teams are defensively minded, their recent head-to-head results or if the weather will affect scoring.

Teams with strong defences or poor attacking form will have lower odds for under 2.0 goals.

Push Scenarios in Under 2

As we mentioned earlier a push occurs if the match ends with two goals.

For many this is a safety net as you won’t lose your stake.

Push scenarios in sports betting are common and understanding them can help you make better decisions when choosing your bet types.

 

Strategies for Under 2.0 Goals Betting

To consistently profit from under 2.0 goals betting, it’s important to employ well-thought-out strategies.

Let’s look at some specific strategies for betting on under 2.0 goals now. 

Scoring Stats

Ultimately what you’re looking for is matches which have a good chance of being low scoring and teams who tend to be involved in a lot of 0-0 and 1-0 matches, with the occasional 1-1 or 2-0. 

What you are trying to avoid is teams who are involved in a lot of games with three or more goals.

So taking some time to look at teams’ recent scores and singling out those with a lot of low scores is advisable when looking at possible under 2.0 bets.

Team Formations and Defensive Tactics

When betting under 2.0 goals you need to consider team formations and their style of play.

Teams that play with defensive formations like 5-4-1 or 4-5-1 can often produce low scoring football matches, if they are set up to play in a possession-based or defensive manner.

Also, how teams adapt to their opponents can give you valuable information.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Head-to-head statistics are a must in betting.

Some teams may have a history of low scoring matches when they play each other even though they score plenty of goals in the league.

Analysing these patterns can help you determine if the match will be a low scoring one.

Weather and Its Impact on Goal Scoring

Weather can affect the pace and quality of a football match.

Wet or windy conditions can hinder attacking play and make low scoring matches more likely.

Always check the weather before betting under 2.0 goals.

Recent Form and Goal Scoring Trends

Teams in poor form or in a scoring drought are perfect for under 2.0 goals betting.

By looking at recent form analysis for football betting you can see how a team is doing and adjust your strategy accordingly.

 

Check out this top football tipster with over 200 points profit made, fully verified. 

 

Advanced Under 2.0 Goals Betting

For more experienced bettors, there are advanced techniques that can further enhance your success with under 2.0 goals betting.

By leveraging in-play opportunities, statistical models, and combining markets, you can take your betting strategy to the next level.

In-Play Strategies

In-play under 2 goals betting is exciting especially when you’ve determined the tempo of the match early on.

If teams are playing defensively there can be value in backing under 2 goals, particularly if it was not expected to be a defensive game at the outset.

Tools like the In Play Scanner can be really useful in alerting you to whether there are chances being created in a game and goals are likely.

It rates matches according to how many actions such as attacks, corners and shots are happening.

When a rating is below a certain level, it means there aren’t many chances being created and a goal is not very likely to be scored in the game. 

We tested the scanner out over a three-month trial, and it made £632 in profit based on the alerts sent out.

Alternatively you can watch a game live and decide for yourself whether it is being played in a cautious manner and heading towards a low-scoring outcome.

Either way, in-play betting allows you to see the flow of a game live and can therefore be a better way to utilise the under 2.0 goals market than betting before kick-off.   

Under 2 Bets with Other Markets

You can increase your returns by combining under 2 bets with other markets like Asian handicap or halftime/full-time.

For example, combining an under 2 bet with predicting the match result or betting on a draw can allow you to hedge your risks or be used in trading scenarios. 

Statistical Models and Predictions

Advanced bettors use statistical models for football predictions to analyse data from sites like Predictology such as goal scoring trends, team form and other factors.

These models can be very useful in finding value in under 2 goals market.

 

Pros and Cons of Under 2.0 Goals Betting

Like any football betting market, under 2.0 goals has its advantages and drawbacks.

Let’s take a closer look at both sides to give you a better understanding of whether this bet type suits your betting style and risk appetite.

Pros of Under 2.0 Goals Betting

The pros of under 2 betting include:

  1. Safer Option with the Push Outcome
    One of the main benefits of betting on under 2.0 goals is the “push” scenario. If the match ends with exactly two goals, you get your stake refunded. This safety net reduces the overall risk compared to markets like under 1.5 goals, where two goals would still result in a loss.
  2. Useful for Low-Scoring Matches
    Under 2.0 goals betting is ideal when two teams with strong defences or poor attacking records face each other. If you’ve analysed the match and expect a tight, low-scoring affair, this market can provide excellent value. Teams known for grinding out 0-0 or 1-0 results are prime candidates for this type of bet.
  3. Works Well with Certain Leagues
    Some football leagues are known for having fewer goals scored on average. For example, certain European leagues, including Ligue 1 in France and La Liga in Spain, tend to have lower scoring matches compared to more attack-heavy leagues like the Premier League. By focusing on these leagues, under 2.0 goals betting can become a key part of your strategy.
  4. Fits Defensive Strategies
    If you’re following teams that employ defensive tactics, such as parking the bus or focusing on counter-attacks, under 2.0 goals is a great market to consider. Analysing formations and defensive football strategies can help you identify games where fewer goals are likely to be scored.

Cons of Under 2.0 Goals Betting

Whilst the cons of under 2 bets include:

  1. Limited Profit Potential
    One downside to betting on under 2.0 goals is the relatively limited profit potential. Because of the lower-risk nature of the bet, the odds are usually shorter than other markets like under 1.5 goals. This means you need to place larger stakes or win consistently to make significant profits.
  2. Vulnerable to Late Goals
    The under 2.0 goals market can often be undone by a single late goal. Matches that look like they’ll finish 1-0 can quickly change in injury time, resulting in your bet losing or turning into a push. Injury time is particularly dangerous in football betting, as it often leads to unexpected goals.
  3. Requires Detailed Analysis
    Success in under 2.0 goals betting depends heavily on in-depth analysis. You’ll need to look at team tactics, form, head-to-head records, and even weather impact on football scoring. Without proper research, you might find yourself placing bets on matches that are more open than expected.
  4. Can Be Too Conservative for Some Bettors
    For those who enjoy riskier, higher-reward bets, under 2.0 goals may feel too conservative. The likelihood of receiving your stake back in a push is higher compared to other markets, which can result in lower excitement and slower bankroll growth. If you’re looking for bigger returns, this market may not be for you.

In summary, under 2.0 goals betting is a solid option for those who prefer a more cautious approach and enjoy betting on low-scoring football matches.

However, it’s important to consider the potential limitations, such as shorter odds and the risk of late goals, before committing to this market.


Under 2 Bets as Part of a Bigger Strategy

Under 2 goals betting can be part of a bigger football betting strategy.

You can combine it with 0-0 or 1-0 bets or other markets like draws or Asian handicaps so you have flexibility in how you approach each match.

Bankroll Management

Like any bet, you need to practice good bankroll management in sports betting when betting under 2.0 goals.

Low scoring markets may seem safer but putting too much of your bankroll on one outcome can still lead to big losses.

Always bet with a plan and stake accordingly.

 

Conclusion – Using Under 2 to Take Advantage of Low-Scoring Matches

Betting on under 2.0 goals can be a smart strategy for those looking to take advantage of low-scoring football matches.

With the potential safety net of a push and the right analytical approach, it offers a way to minimise risk while still making steady profits.

However, it’s important to weigh up the lower odds and potential for late goals before diving in.

Whether you’re a cautious bettor or just looking to expand your options, under 2.0 goals betting can be a valuable addition to your football betting toolkit.

Whether you bet on under 2 goals or other markets, good luck with your betting and please remember to always gamble responsibly. 

 

 

Understanding Sports Tipster ROI: What Makes a Good Return?

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When looking at sports tipsters you need to consider ROI – Return on Investment.

It tells you if following a tipster is worth the effort, risk and money involved. But how do you calculate ROI and what is a good return in the world of sports tipping?

This guide will go into the details of sports tipster ROI and give you tips on how to calculate it and avoid the mistakes.

In sports betting ROI means “Return on Investment” and it measures how much profit you’ve made against how much you’ve staked.

It’s a key indicator of tipster performance and one of the most important metrics for anyone serious about long term betting success.

Definition of ROI in sports betting

At its simplest sports tipster ROI is the percentage return you get from your total stakes over time.

It allows you to compare tipsters by showing the profit (or loss) you can expect to make for every pound staked.

For example a 10% ROI means for every £100 staked you’d have made £10 in profit.

Why ROI is important

ROI is important because it goes beyond win-loss records.

A tipster might have a high win rate but be unprofitable if their tips are on short priced favourites with little value.

A tipster with a lower win rate could have a higher ROI by tipping at higher odds and making long term profitability more achievable.

How ROI differs from simple win-loss records

Win-loss records (also known as “win rate” or “strike rate”) tell you how often a tipster gets it right but don’t show the overall profitability of their tips.

ROI shows you the full picture of tipster performance. It’s about the betting returns not just the number of correct tips.

It’s all about quality not quantity.

ROI and long-term betting success

Over time a positive ROI is a sign of profitable sports tipping.

Inconsistent or negative ROI means a tipster may not have an edge over the market and sticking with them will erode your betting bankroll.

Ultimately, consistent ROI over a large sample size is the foundation of any long-term betting strategy.

How to calculate Sports Tipster ROI: A Step by Step Guide

Now you know what ROI is, let’s get into how to calculate it.

The formula is pretty simple:

ROI (%) = (Total Profit / Total Stakes) x 100

For example if you’ve made a total profit of £500 from total stakes of £5,000 your ROI would be:

£500 / £5,000 x 100 = 10%

Stake sizes and odds

When calculating ROI you need to factor in stake sizes and odds.

Some tipsters recommend level stakes, others recommend different staking strategies based on confidence levels.

This is why ROI is a useful metric – it tells you the return taking all stakes into account, whether the tipster bets at level stakes, variable staking or otherwise. 

What is a Good ROI in Sports Tipping?

What is a good ROI?

The answer depends on the sport, bet type and win rate.

In sports like golf and horse racing, where the win rate is typically lower (around 10-20%), top tipsters can achieve impressive ROIs of 20% or even 30% over time.

Tipsters with higher win rates generally show much lower ROIs.

For example, a tennis or football tipster with a 50% win rate might only achieve an ROI of 5-10%.

If a tipster has a win rate over 50%, it would be extremely rare to see an ROI of more than 20-30% over a decent sample size of bets. 

While these numbers may be possible in the short term (say a few months or possibly even up to a year), they are very hard to sustain over longer periods.

The reason is that with shorter odds, there’s typically less room for significant value in the bets.

For instance, a horse racing tipster might find a horse priced at 33/1 that should actually be 25/1.

This offers a notable edge – or expected value – over the bookmakers.

On the other hand, a football tipster betting on lower odds would be fortunate to find a small edge, like spotting a team priced at 2.3 when it should be 2.14.

That smaller margin usually leads to a lower ROI over time.

The typical ROI and win rate metrics tend to vary by sport, but are often approximately as follows:

Sport Typical Win Rates Top Tipsters’ long-term ROI
Football 50% or higher 5-10%
Golf 10-20% 20-30%
Tennis 30-50% 5-10%
Horse Racing 15-35%  15-30% 
 Cricket 30-50%  10-15% 

So really ROI needs to be seen in context of the sport and win rate – and other metrics, as we will discuss below – rather than in isolation. 

Considering ROI Alongside Other Metrics

While ROI is an important metric in evaluating a tipster’s performance, it should never be considered in isolation.

To get a true picture of how successful a tipster is, you need to look at several other key metrics that work together to give a complete overview of their performance.

  1. Win Rate: The win rate is crucial to understanding the context of ROI. As discussed above, a high ROI with a low win rate might suggest the tipster is targeting long odds, which can lead to bigger wins but fewer of them. Conversely, a tipster with a high win rate but low ROI may be betting on favorites with shorter odds. The relationship between ROI and win rate is usually inversely proportional – the higher one is, the lower the other will be. 
  2. Overall Profit/Loss: ROI tells you how efficient a tipster is in making returns relative to stakes, but the overall profit and loss (P/L) shows the total financial impact of their tips. A tipster with a high ROI but a small profit may not be as valuable as one with a lower ROI but a much higher overall profit due to a higher win rate and higher volume of bets.
  3. Bet Volume: The number of bets a tipster places is critical to understanding their ROI. A tipster with a high ROI but a low bet volume might not offer enough opportunities to generate consistent profits. On the other hand, a tipster with a high volume but lower ROI can still produce significant profits over time because they place many more bets and can therefore grow the bank.
  4. Bank Growth (Return on Capital): Another important measure is how much a tipster grows their betting bank over time, which is effectively their return on capital. This shows how well a tipster compounds profits and manages their bankroll. A tipster with steady bank growth is likely to be using a sustainable staking plan that balances risk and reward.
  5. Consistency: The percentage of winning months a tipster has is an important indicator of consistency. A tipster with a high ROI but only a few profitable months may provide a more erratic betting experience. In contrast, a tipster with a solid percentage of winning months (e.g., 60-70%) is more likely to offer steady, reliable profits. Consistency is key in helping you ride out the inevitable downswings and maintain confidence in the tipster’s long-term success.
  6. Closing Line Value (CLV): CLV is a measure of how often the odds a tipster bets at are better than the final odds (closing line). If a tipster consistently beats the closing line, it suggests they have a genuine edge over the market. ROI might fluctuate over time, but consistent CLV indicates that the tipster is making good value bets that should, over time, lead to long-term profitability.

Each of these metrics interacts with ROI to provide a more rounded assessment of a tipster’s performance.

For example, a tipster with a moderate ROI but strong CLV and steady bank growth is likely to be more reliable than one with a higher ROI but poor CLV and erratic bank growth.

Understanding how these factors work together is key to evaluating the long-term value of following a particular tipster.

That’s why our reviews consider all these factors together holistically in determining a tipster’s rating rather than viewing a factor such as ROI in isolation.   

A high ROI in itself – whilst obviously being a good thing – is not necessarily proof of a top tipster.

If it’s accompanied by good all-around metrics like strong bank growth, consistent profits, and a solid win rate, it becomes a much stronger indicator of a top quality tipster. 

 

Example of Tipsters with Good All-Around Metrics

Let’s take a look at a couple of examples of tipsters with good all-around metrics. 

Example 1: Horse Racing Tipster with 31% ROI

First up is Hanbury Racing, a horse racing tipster with a very good long-term ROI of 31%. 

As we say though, this needs to be considered in context of the other metrics. Do those stack up or does the service just have a good ROI? 

Well, the ROI has been accompanied by a solid win rate of 22% and excellent long-term profit of over 1,500 points made. 

Bet volume is sound with around 2-3 bets per day on average, meaning the bank can keep ticking along.

Bank growth has been stellar at over 700% since the service started.

Hanbury Racing targets longshots so the consistency can be a little up and down, with for example slightly less than half of the months in 2024 being profitable ones. 

However, taken as a whole these represent first class metrics and the ROI stacks up very well when taken in context with the other stats. 

Example 2: Football Tipster with 10% ROI

Another example is a football tipster called Scottish Confidential with a lower ROI of 10%. How does that stack up against its other metrics though?

Interestingly the lower ROI is correlated with a much higher win rate, of 43%. 

That means it is backing at much lower odds than Hanbury Racing for example but is still able to find value. 

The overall profits are strong too at just over 200 points made. 

The bet volume is reasonable with around 15 bets per week. 

Bank growth hasn’t been quite as impressive as Hanbury Racing but is still formidable at over 400%.

Consistency is good too, with a high proportion of winnings months, although they did struggle a little back in 2021. 

Taken as a whole though these are strong stats and it illustrates the point about a high win rate usually correlating with a lower ROI – but that taken together this can still mean very good overall profit.

Example 3: Horse Racing Tipster with 8% ROI

Thirdly we have a horse racing tipster called Racing Rundown with an 8% ROI.

That has been accompanied by a win rate of 24%, which is solid enough but somewhat below the rate achieved by Scottish Confidential for example. 

The overall profits have been good, with 293 points made to date. 

Bet volume is sound at around 2 bets per day on average. 

Consistency is reasonable but they have been a little up and down, with around 60% winning months so far. 

The overall bank growth is slightly over 100% so far. 

Overall these are good stats, but you can see that despite having a pretty similar ROI to Scottish Confidential, when taken in context of the overall metrics it doesn’t quite measure up to the football service. 

This illustrates the importance of considering ROI in the overall context of performance metrics rather than just in isolation.  

 

ROI by Bet Type

Not all bets are created equal – and neither is their ROI.

The type of bet a tipster recommends can have a big impact on their ROI.

So it’s worth understanding how these bets work.

For example singles are the bread and butter of most professional tipsters.

They’re simple: you back a single outcome and your ROI is a direct reflection of the value in those bets. If a tipster consistently finds value, the ROI can increase over time

On the other hand accumulators (or parlays) are riskier.

These are bets where multiple selections are combined into one bet.

Yes the payouts can be much higher but they come with a catch – all your selections have to win.

A tipster who uses accumulators might have a lower win rate but a high ROI because of the bigger odds. But this can also lead to more volatility in their results.

Then there are value bets where tipsters identify odds they think are mispriced by the bookies.

These bets are often low margin, meaning the ROI will be low but value bettors look to turn over a large number of bets to generate their profits. 

In the end understanding how different bet types impact ROI can help you choose a tipster that fits your betting style.

Whether you like a steady low risk approach or a more adventurous one with bigger payoffs the type of bet has a big impact on ROI.

Variance and ROI

One thing that gets overlooked in sports betting is variance – and boy does it matter!

Variance is the natural ups and downs you get when betting and it can kill your ROI in the short term.

Let’s say you’re following a tipster who focuses on longshots. They might have a lower win rate because the odds they’re targeting are much higher – but that doesn’t mean they’re not good at what they do.

You could go through a long losing streak and see your ROI drop and then a few big wins turn it all around.

On the other hand a tipster backing short priced favourites might have more frequent wins but those small profits can be wiped out by a few losses.

That’s why understanding variance is key. It helps you stay calm during the rough patches and not get carried away with a short term spike in ROI.

In short variance is part of the game and patience is key when evaluating a tipster’s long term performance.

Chasing High ROI

We’ve all heard the phrase “if it sounds too good to be true it probably is.”

The same applies to sports betting ROI. A tipster claiming 50%, 70% or more ROI may grab your attention but be careful – there’s usually a catch.

Tipsters claiming astronomical ROIs can sometimes manipulate the numbers, cherry pick their best results or omit losing bets from their record. In short, they may be scam tipsters.

While it’s possible to get a high ROI in the short term (thanks to variance) it’s incredibly difficult to sustain it over a large number of bets.

So what’s the risk of chasing these numbers? The danger is unrealistic expectations.

If you’re tempted by the big returns you might end up staking more than you can afford, taking unnecessary risks or jumping from one service to another in search of those big gains.

Remember consistency is key. A tipster with a smaller but steady ROI is a much safer bet in the long run than one making outlandish claims.

Betting Bank Management and ROI

Your betting bank – or bankroll – is the lifeblood of your betting journey.

Managing it properly is key to staying in the game and that’s where ROI comes in.

ROI gives you an idea of how much profit you can expect from each bet in relation to your stakes but how you manage your bank can increase or decrease those returns.

The best tipsters often recommend a staking plan that matches their ROI.

For example if a tipster has a lower ROI but higher win rate they might recommend staking a bigger portion of your bank to take advantage of more frequent wins.

But don’t get too carried away. Over staking – especially when chasing high ROI – can quickly drain your bank during a losing streak.

That’s why many experienced bettors use methods like the Kelly Criterion which calculates the optimal stake based on the edge and bankroll size.

This way you’re taking value without putting your whole bank at risk.

In short managing your bankroll in line with the ROI and betting strategy is key to long-term success.

Sample size in ROI calculations

A larger sample size gives a more accurate picture of a tipster’s performance.

A small sample can distort the results especially if the tipster gets lucky early on.

In our reviews we always aim to track at least 100 tips before making any conclusions about a tipster’s ROI.

Really though to get a statistically significant view of a tipster’s ROI you would need hundreds of bets, preferably over 1,000. 

Conclusion – Sports Tipster ROI 

So what have we learned about sports tipster ROI? Here are the key points:

  • ROI is important but it’s just one piece of the puzzle. Look at it alongside other metrics like win rate, profit/loss, bet volume and bank growth to get a full picture of a tipster’s performance.
  • Bet type matters. Singles, accumulators and value bets all impact ROI differently so understanding what a tipster specialises in can help you manage your expectations.
  • Variance plays a big part in short term ROI fluctuations. Be patient and don’t let short term results – good or bad – affect your long-term outlook.
  • Don’t chase high ROI. If a tipster is promising big returns take a step back and look at their long-term record.
  • Manage your bank wisely. Use a staking plan that matches the tipster’s strategy and your own risk tolerance to protect your bankroll over the long term.

Now you’re ready to follow tipsters who deliver not just big numbers but real long-term value.

Long-term profitability is the goal and understanding ROI is the first step.

Hopefully this article has given you a good overview of how ROI works and how to utilise it in your betting. 

Please remember to always gamble responsibly and good luck with your betting! 

 

 

footballer mid air kick

Over 1.0 Goals in Football Betting: What Does “Over 1” Mean?

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Football has lots of markets and sometimes they can be confusing if you’re new to it.

One of those markets is the “over 1” bet and it leaves many punters scratching their heads.

So what does “over 1” mean in football betting and how can you use this market to your advantage?

In this guide we’ll break down the “over 1” bet, explain how it works and give you some expert tips on how to make the most of this betting option.

What is Over 1 in Football Betting?

The “over 1” bet is an over/under bet in football that’s focused on the total number of goals in the match.

When you bet on “over 1” you’re saying the total number of goals scored in match will be over 1.

If 1 goal is scored your stake is refunded. If more than 1 goal is scored you win the bet.

Here is a table summarising how the over 1.0 bet works:

Match Outcome Over 1.0 Bet Result
0-0 Loss
1-0 or 0-1 Push (stake returned)
1-1, 2-0, 2-1, etc Win

The “over 1 goal” market can be a lower risk option than betting on higher goal lines.

It’s especially effective in matches where you think there will be some goals but want the safety of a refund if only 1 goal is scored.

Over 1 vs Over 1.5

One important thing to note is the difference between the “over 1 goals” and “over 1.5 goals” markets.

Both bets are focused on the total goals scored in a match but the key difference is what happens if exactly 1 goal is scored.

With an “over 1” bet a single goal is a push or refund but with “over 1.5” if 1 goal is scored your bet loses.

This small difference makes the “over 1” bet a safer option for the cautious punter.

The difference between over 1.0 goals and over 1.5 goals can be summarised as follows:-

Criteria Over 1.0 Goals Over 1.5 Goals
Winning Outcome 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, etc 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, etc
Push (stake returned) 1-0 or 0-1 N/A
Losing Outcome 0-0 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

 

Typical Odds for Over 1.0 Goals Bet

The odds for an over 1.0 goals bet tend to typically be quite low. 

For example, in a match between Aston Villa and Manchester Utd in the Premier League, the odds for over 1.0 goals is 1.13 (odds from the Betfair Exchange).

That compares to odds of 1.19 for over 1.5 goals and odds of 1.04 for the over 0.5 goals.

In summary then the odds for these goals markets in this match are:

  • Over 0.5 goals: 1.04
  • Over 1 goals: 1.13
  • Over 1.5 goals: 1.19

So the lower odds for over 1.0 goals reflect that this is a slightly safer option than the over 1.5 goals bet for example.

 

👉 Check out our top recommended over under tipster here.

 

Real-Life Examples of Over 1

Let’s say there’s a Premier League match between Arsenal and Tottenham.

If you bet on “over 1” and the score is 1-0 your bet is refunded.

But if the score is 2-0 or 1-1 you win the bet since more than 1 goal was scored.

The over 1.0 goals bet is often used in matches where both teams play open football and can score at least once.

How Does Over 1 Work?

So in summary, how does an “over 1” bet work? Let’s break it down step by step.

Step-by-Step Breakdown:

  1. Place Your Bet: You bet on a football match that there will be more than 1 goal scored.
  2. Possible Outcomes:
    • 0 goals scored: You lose the bet.
    • 1 goal scored: Your stake is refunded (push).
    • 2 or more goals scored: You win the bet.

Payout

Payout on an “over 1” bet is determined by the bookmaker’s odds.

For example if the odds are 1.15 and you bet £10 you would win £1.50 if more than 1 goal is scored.

Compared to Other Over/Under Bets

Compared to higher goal lines like “over 1.5” or “over 2.5” the “over 1” bet is safer since you get your money back if 1 goal is scored.

However the odds will be lower due to this safety net, as we have seen in the example of Aston Villa vs Man Utd above.

Benefits of Betting on Over 1 Goals

There are various benefits to backing over 1 goals, in addition to the lower risk compared to higher goal lines.

High Win Rate

One of the major benefits of betting on over 1.0 goals is the relatively high win rate compared to more aggressive goal markets like over 2.5 or over 3.5 goals.

Since you’re only relying on at least one goal to avoid a loss and even a single goal results in a refund, the win rates can be as high as 80% or more, depending on the match. 

Cheering On Goals

Another enjoyable aspect of betting on over 1.0 goals is the excitement it brings while watching a match.

Unlike some betting markets, where a slow, low-scoring game might still be beneficial, here you’re actively rooting for goals to be scored, regardless of which teams scores them.

Every time the ball hits the back of the net, you know you’re closer to a win, adding to the fun and engagement.

Flexibility in Betting

This bet type is flexible. You can use it in accumulators or live betting where the flow of the game may present good opportunities to back over 1.0 goals at higher odds than at the start – something we will delve into further below.

 

Check out this top football tipster with over 200 points profit made, fully verified. 

 

Strategies for Betting on “Over 1.0 Goals” 

When it comes to over 1.0 goals the key is to find teams and matches where at least one goal may be scored but not a goal fest.

This will give you better value for your bets. 

The beauty of this market is it has a built-in safety net – if only one goal is scored your stake is refunded so you don’t lose your whole bet.

1. Target Teams with Consistent Scorers

The first step of this strategy is to target teams that score regularly but not necessarily high scoring teams.

These teams might not score 3 or 4 goals but they can score at least one. Look for teams that are solid in attack but not prolific.

For example a team that scores 1.2 to 1.5 goals per game can be a good target for an over 1.0 bet.

These types of teams will present much better value than backing teams that are obviously high scoring like Bayern Munich or Man City. 

2. Opponent’s Defensive Weakness

Another factor to consider is the opponent’s defence.

If a team has a porous defence or concedes early goals then the chances of at least one goal being scored increase.

Teams that concede 1 or 2 goals per game create the perfect scenario for an over 1.0 goals bet where you’re hoping for at least one goal but prepared for a low scoring match.

3. Balanced Matches

Balanced matches where both teams are evenly matched can be good for over 1.0 goals bets.

In these games each team will create chances and score at least one goal but neither team will dominate the match.

A typical scenario is a 1-1 draw or a narrow win which means you can win your bet or get your stake back if one goal is scored.

4. Historical and Current Form

Historical and current form is key to making smart decisions on this market.

Look at their recent goal scoring trends—teams that score and concede regularly are the best for over 1.0 goals bets.

Also look at head to head records as some teams have a habit of producing tight low scoring games against certain opponents, while producing more open and goal friendly matches against other opponents.

5. Team News and Injuries

Key injuries especially to attacking players or defenders can have a big impact on whether goals will be scored.

If a team’s top scorer is out they may struggle to score so the bet becomes riskier.

If a team is missing key defenders then this can increase the chances of goals being conceded so the over 1.0 goals bet becomes more appealing.

6. Live Betting: Adjust as the Game Unfolds

If you’re watching the game live you can adjust your over 1.0 goals bet as the match unfolds.

If both teams are creating chances but haven’t scored yet then this might be the time to get in.

Tools like the In Play Scanner can be really useful in alerting you to instances where lots of chances are being created and a goal is likely to be scored.

It rates matches according to how many actions such as attacks, corners and shots are happening

When a rating hits a certain level (70 for example) it means a goal is likely to be scored and an alert will be sent.

We tested the scanner out over a three-month trial, and it made £632 in profit based on the alerts sent out.

One of the benefits of live betting is it allows you to take advantage of better odds if the game starts slowly but you think goals will come later.

7. Spread Across Leagues

Some leagues are more goal friendly than others.

For example the Bundesliga or Serie A tend to be more goal happy while Ligue 1 or La Liga are more tight and low scoring.

By spreading your over 1.0 goals bets across different leagues you can find more value in this market.

In short, the over 1.0 goals market allows you to bet on games where you think at least one goal will be scored and get a refund if one is.

By looking at balanced matches, team form and news and live betting you can gain an edge in this market.

Over 1 Mistakes

While the “over 1” bet is simple there are some common mistakes to avoid.

Misunderstanding the Bet

Many punters confuse “over 1” with “over 1.5”.

Remember “over 1” includes the option to get your money back if 1 goal is scored.

The market also only applies to goals scored in normal time (90 minutes). Any goals scored in extra time or in a penalty shootout do not count.  

Ignoring Key Match Stats

Relying on gut feeling can be risky.

Make sure to check the stats before you bet. Average goals per match for example and the strategies described above are better approaches than relying on gut instinct.

Overrating Favourite Teams

Just because a team is favourite doesn’t mean they will produce a high scoring game.

Be careful when betting on favourites in defensive matches.

Getting the Most Out of Over 1 Goals Bets

To get the most out of “over 1” bets, it’s important to remember to:

Research Teams and Matches

Before you bet make sure to research the teams. Look into their form, injuries and head-to-head records.

Use Statistical Tools

Tools like the in-play scanner and stats sites like soccerstats.com can help you make better decisions when betting “over 1.”

Manage Your Bankroll

Even with low risk bets like “over 1” you need to manage your bankroll.

Stick to a staking plan and don’t go chasing losses. 

Conclusion

The “over 1” bet is a great addition to any punter’s arsenal – a way to bet on goals in football matches with a bit of safety net.

By understanding the market, researching your bets and avoiding the mistakes listed above you will be better equipped than most punters when approaching over 1 goals bets.

Whether you want a standalone bet or to add to an accumulator, the “over 1” market is a flexible and can be a profitable football betting option with the right approach.

Find out who the Top 10 Football Tipsters in the World are here.

 

Outside Rides – Results Update

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UPDATE – Please note this service has been put on hold. We will pause our review here and look to pick things up again if the service recommences. 

 

 

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Outside Rides – Results Update

5th August 2024

It continues to be somewhat of a struggle for horse racing service Outside Rides, with a loss of 28 points made to advised prices since our last update.

That means they are now 44 points down for our trial overall at advised prices.  

You can view full results here.

It’s a similar story at Betfair SP, with a loss of 29 points made since our last update and 52 points lost for our trial overall at BSP.

Just a reminder, this is service that is based on a theory around top jockeys and small yards. Tips are delivered via the Telegram app to be backed either with the bookies or on Betfair. 

A tough start so far but hopefully they can turn things around soon.  

 

 

 

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Outside Rides – Results Update

1st July 2024

It’s been a bit of a slow start to our trial of horse racing service Outside Rides, with a loss of 16 points made so far to advised prices. 

You can view full results here.

It’s a similar story at Betfair SP, with a loss of 23 points made for our trial to date.

Just a reminder, this is service that is based on a theory around top jockeys and small yards. Tips are delivered via the Telegram app to be backed either with the bookies or on Betfair. 

So not the ideal start here but still early days and plenty of time to turn things around.  

 

 

 

 

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Outside Rides – New Review

8th May 2024

We are starting a new trial today of a horse racing service called Outside Rides. 

This is a relatively new service that is based on a theory around top jockeys and small yards. 

The idea is that because small racing stables don’t get much access to top jockeys compared to the bigger, more wealthy stables, they offer those jockeys their best horses in an effort to secure their services over the long term. 

Outside Rides is focused on flat racing and has been live for just over a year now and has made a little over 50 points profit so far. 

That has come at a return on investment of around 8%, which is a solid enough return. 

At Betfair SP the results have been pretty decent too, with a profit of 38 points made to date at an ROI of just under 6%. 

Their backtested results look very impressive with a reported 1700 points profit made from the system.

However, we don’t normally put much store in backtested results as we have seen plenty of examples of backtested results that look great on paper but then when they go live fail to deliver the goods. Ultimately only live, proofed results carry any weight. 

Anyway, it looks like a promising service and we are always interested in new or innovative betting theories so let’s see how this one gets on under a live trial.

It operates on a “pay as you win” model which is good so no expensive subscription fees to pay if the service isn’t making a positive return. 

We’ll update results here as always so you can see how they are progressing. 

In the meantime you can check out Outside Rides for yourself here.

 

 

 

 

Lay the Draw – How to Profit in 2025

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One of the most well-known football trading techniques is the “lay the draw” strategy.

While its exact origins are unclear, several traders have claimed credit for its creation.

This approach, which involves laying the draw on betting exchanges, appears to have emerged shortly after the launch of Betfair in 1999, gaining traction online in the early 2000s.

It became evident to many that when a goal was scored in a football match, the odds of a draw would often spike, sometimes quite significantly.

This presented an opportunity to lay the draw in a wide range of football matches, regardless of which team was favored to win, and then exit the trade for a profit once a goal was scored.

Over time, as the strategy became more popular, market reactions to goals became less pronounced, and the potential for profit gradually declined.

Today, it’s difficult to make consistent profits from laying the draw in football matches without conducting further research or refining your approach.

In fact, some traders now argue that “lay the draw is no longer effective” or dismiss it as an “amateur strategy.”

However, we believe otherwise; it can still be successful, but it requires more sophistication and expertise in today’s market to be profitable.

In the following section, we’ll explore three strategies that demonstrate how the lay the draw system remains a viable trading method in 2025.

 

What is Lay the Draw?

Definition and Basics of Draw Strategy

Lay the Draw is a popular football trading strategy that involves laying the draw on a betting exchange, such as Betfair.

This means betting against the draw, with the goal of profiting from the change in odds when a goal is scored.

The strategy is based on the fact that most football matches do not end in a draw, and that the odds on the draw will typically rise when a goal is scored.

This creates an opportunity for traders to lock in a profit by trading out of their position after a goal is scored.

In essence, the Lay the Draw strategy leverages the dynamic nature of football matches.

When a goal is scored, the likelihood of the match ending in a draw decreases, causing the draw odds to spike.

By laying the draw before the match and then backing it at higher odds after a goal, traders can secure a profit regardless of the final outcome of the match.

This approach requires a good understanding of football trading and the ability to react quickly to in-play events.

How Draw Odds Affect Trading

The draw odds play a crucial role in the Lay the Draw strategy.

Typically, the odds on the draw are higher than the odds on either team winning, as a draw is considered a less likely outcome.

However, these odds are not static; they fluctuate based on the events unfolding during the match.

When a goal is scored, the odds on the draw will rise, reflecting the decreased probability of the match ending in a draw.

For example, if you lay the draw at odds of 3.5 before the match and a goal is scored, the draw odds might jump to 5.0 or higher.

This increase in odds provides an opportunity to back the draw at the new, higher odds, thereby locking in a profit.

The key to successful draw trading lies in understanding these odds movements and timing your trades effectively.

By closely monitoring the match and using in-play stats, traders can make informed decisions about when to enter and exit their trades.

This approach not only maximizes profit potential but also helps manage risk, making the Lay the Draw strategy a viable option for football trading in 2025.

 

Strategy One – the Classic Lay the Draw Trade

The classic “lay the draw” strategy involves placing a lay bet against the draw before the match starts and then adjusting your position during the game based on the unfolding events.

Here’s an example of how this strategy can be applied in a straightforward trade:

Imagine a Champions League match between Leverkusen and Roma. Given the recent form of both teams and their scoring records, the expectation is that the match will see several goals.

Prior to the match beginning, the odds for laying the draw are set at 3.95.

 Lay the Draw - Leverkusen and Roma

So we click on the lay button (pink) at odds of 3.95 and place a £10 lay on the draw, giving us a liability of £29.50 if the game does finish in a draw (but we will trade out before the end in any event).

Now the game goes in-running and we await the first goal.

Boom! After 3 minutes, Leverkusen score to make it 1-0.

Now just look at what happens to the odds of the draw on Betfair:

Leverkusen and Roma - Odds on Betfair

The draw price has shot out to around 5.9 from their original price of 3.95.

That means we can lock in a guaranteed profit of £3.28 (which equates to 32.8% profit on our lay stake) by simply clicking on the “Cash Out” button. Easy-peasy! 🙂

 

Get FREE football tips from top tipsters here

 

What Sort of Games to Use Classic Lay the Draw In

Applying the classic lay the draw strategy to all matches without discretion is an unwise approach and will likely lead to losses overall.

The reason is that the betting markets have become too efficient, eliminating any inherent edge in the strategy itself.

To achieve profitability with the classic lay the draw trade, it’s crucial to be selective and follow specific criteria.

Here are the three main criteria we focus on when choosing matches to execute this strategy:

Criteria One – Good Liquidity

The first important factor is ensuring there’s sufficient liquidity to allow us to exit our bet when a goal is scored.

Therefore, we prioritize matches where at least £30,000 has been matched in the match odds market on Betfair (or any other exchange you might use) before the kick-off.

For instance:

Lay the Draw - Maccabi Tel Aviv v Chelsea

In this game you will see that over £1.5m has been matched on the game before kick-off, which is excellent liquidity and means it will be a good game to trade from this point of view.

Criteria Two – High-Scoring Matches

The lay the draw strategy is most effective in matches where a high number of goals are anticipated. Therefore, it’s crucial to focus on games that are likely to be high-scoring when selecting matches for this strategy.

But how can you determine if a match is likely to have plenty of goals?

One method is to use websites like soccerstats.com to review statistics, such as the average number of goals both teams score and concede per game, as well as how frequently their matches end with more than two goals (i.e., over 2.5 goals).

For a quicker and simpler evaluation, you can also check the correct score market for the same match. This market can give you valuable insights into the expected goal-scoring.

Ideally, you want to find matches where the odds of a 0-0 result—and thus a losing trade—are higher than 15.0.

This suggests a less than 7% probability of the game ending without any goals, giving you a favorable outlook for a successful trade—specifically, over a 93% chance of success.

To assess this, simply look at the odds for the 0-0 scoreline in the correct score market.

Maccabi Tel Aviv v Chelsea - Looking at 0-0 odds

Here we see in the correct score market 0-0 is priced at 16.5 to back. This is a positive sign, suggesting that the match could be a strong candidate for executing the lay the draw strategy in.

Another important element of this strategy is to target matches where teams are likely to win decisively with high scores, such as 3-1 or 4-2.

Leagues like the Dutch and German ones are particularly known for these kinds of high-scoring games.

To master this strategy, it’s essential to dedicate time to researching and analyzing data from sources like soccerstats.com.

By identifying teams that frequently play in high-scoring matches, you can greatly enhance your chances of profiting from the lay the draw strategy. These are the matches that offer the most potential for success with this trading method.

Criteria Three – Matches Without a Strong Favourite

The types of games you select for the lay the draw strategy will partly depend on your risk tolerance.

Personally, we prefer to focus on matches where our initial liability isn’t too high.

As a result, we target matches where the draw is priced between 3.5 and 5.0 before kick-off. When the odds exceed 5.0, the liability begins to rise too much for our comfort.

For example:

Porto vs Dynamo Kiev

This is a relatively balanced match, as reflected by the draw odds of 3.75. These odds give us ample opportunity to trade if a goal is scored, particularly if the first goal comes from Porto.

Our decision to set a minimum draw odds threshold at 3.5 is based on the general difficulty of finding matches with odds lower than this when the 0-0 draw odds exceed 15.0.

In high-scoring games, the likelihood of a draw—especially a goalless one—decreases, which is partially reflected in the draw odds.

We aim to avoid rare scenarios where both teams might have a strong incentive to play for a draw.

For instance, this could occur in tournament settings where a draw would see both teams advance to the next round.

We also steer clear of matches that appear suspicious, such as those occasionally seen in Italian football, where draw odds are unusually low, sometimes around 2.0.

From our experience, when draw odds are suspiciously low, it’s wise to avoid those matches as they may be subject to irregularities or, at the very least, perceived manipulation.

On the other hand, we generally target matches where the draw odds are below 5.0, as this allows us to secure a profit or, at worst, minimize losses if a goal is scored.

When there is a strong favorite, a common scenario is that if the underdog scores first, the draw odds might actually decrease, putting your trade at a disadvantage.

This risk is more pronounced when the draw odds are above 4.0, which is why some traders prefer to limit their selections to matches with draw odds below 4.0.

However, we prefer to include matches where the draw odds are between 4.0 and 5.0, as long as we believe there’s a strong chance that the favorite will score first.

Even if the favorite doesn’t score first, we expect any losses to be manageable. That said, once draw odds exceed 5.0, the risk of significant losses increases if the underdog scores, making it a major concern.

Summary – Selecting Matches for the Classic Lay the Draw Strategy

To summarise then, these are the three criteria to focus on when selecting matches to trade the classic lay the draw strategy in. We focus on matches where:

  • Over £30,000 has been matched on the match odds market before kick-off;
  • The odds of the draw are between 3.5 and 5; and
  • The odds of 0-0 are 15.0 or above.

 

Strategy Two – Laying the Draw In-Play

The strategy mentioned above involves laying the draw before the match starts, which is the most common method of using this approach.

However, there’s an alternative method where you wait until the game is in play before entering a trade.

The benefit of this approach is that it allows you to observe how the game is unfolding before committing any money.

Deciding whether to engage in a trade during a football match depends on the game’s dynamics and your willingness to take on risk, allowing you to adjust based on how the action unfolds, which often deviates from pre-match expectations.

The timing of when to enter a trade is crucial and should align with your risk tolerance and preferred time frame. One effective approach is waiting until the later stages of the match.

The final 15 minutes are typically the most open, as teams push hard for a win.

Entering a trade during this period can be advantageous because the odds are usually lower, which reduces your liability compared to laying the draw at the start when odds might be 3.5 or higher.

Furthermore, key decisions and actions often hinge on the moments leading up to the final whistle, particularly when assessing the potential for scoring late in the game, which can significantly affect the outcome of trades.

If a goal is scored during this late stage, you can expect the draw odds to spike significantly, resulting in a larger profit on your trade.

To capitalise on late-game trading, it’s important to:

  • Monitor the flow of the match and assess the frequency of scoring opportunities.
  • Focus on teams known for scoring late goals, which you can identify using resources like soccerstats.

For example, consider this data from the 2020/21 Premier League season, highlighting goals scored and conceded by various teams at different stages of the match:

The data clearly shows significant variations in the number of goals scored and conceded by different teams during the final 15 minutes of their matches.

For example, Leicester City had a total of 33 goals in this period (23 scored and 10 conceded), while Newcastle saw 30 goals (15 scored and 15 conceded). In contrast, Arsenal had only 14 goals during the last 15 minutes of their games.

This data can help you identify which teams are worth focusing on, but the most precise approach is to watch the matches live.

Watching games in real-time allows you to discern which matches are wide open, with teams aggressively attacking and defenses becoming tired, versus those that are more subdued and leaning towards a draw.

This live observation provides valuable insights for executing lay the draw trades, and the more you watch with this perspective, the better you’ll be at spotting profitable opportunities.

If you don’t have the time to watch numerous matches live, you can use tools like those from Trade On Sports. They offer bots that analyze global leagues and extensive data to identify valuable late-goal opportunities.

In our own trial, one of these bots generated a notable profit of £5120, making this a practical option for traders looking to efficiently spot late-goal opportunities without the need for extensive live match observation.

Other times of the game

Your focus doesn’t have to be limited to just the last 15 minutes of a match; there are several moments throughout a game when the lay the draw strategy can be effectively applied.

For example, you might look at the chart above to identify teams that frequently score or concede goals just before half-time, a period known for its potential to produce goals.

Alternatively, the timing of your trade may depend on the specific dynamics of the match you’re watching. For instance, if you’re midway through the second half and observe a flurry of shots on goal, it might be an opportune moment to enter a trade.

As noted earlier, there’s no definitive “right” or “wrong” time to execute the trade.

The key to successful in-play lay the draw trading is to have a well-developed strategy that integrates statistical analysis with live match observation. This comprehensive approach enhances your chances of achieving consistent profitability.

 

Strategy Three – Laying the First Half or Second Half Draw

Another strategy for applying the lay the draw approach is to concentrate exclusively on one half of a football match, sometimes referred to the “half lay” strategy.

This method can help you stay focused and simultaneously reduce risk.

For example, if you decide to focus on the first half of the match, it would be more appropriate to use the Half Time market rather than the match odds market.

Consider this example from a World Cup qualifying match between the Netherlands and Norway:

While the draw odds for the entire match are relatively high at 4.5, the odds for a draw at half-time are around 2.48.

When using the lay the draw strategy in the Half-Time (HT) market, your potential liabilities are generally lower compared to the Match Odds market. However, it’s important to note that the probability of a draw (leading to a loss on your trade) is higher in this case.

If a goal is scored by either team in the first half, the odds for a Half-Time draw usually increase significantly, which creates an opportunity to exit the trade with a profit.

The best scenario for this strategy is if a goal is scored late in the first half, ideally by the team you’re backing. This outcome can lead to a substantial profit on your trade.

As with any trading strategy, a thorough statistical analysis is crucial. For this approach, focus on identifying teams that often score (or concede) a significant number of goals in the first half. These teams are particularly suited for the Half-Time lay the draw strategy.

For example, during the early years of Jürgen Klopp’s tenure at Liverpool, the team was known for their aggressive starts at Anfield, often dominating opponents in the first 30 minutes. Teams with a similar tendency for early goals are ideal candidates for this strategy.

Laying the draw in the second half

Alternatively, you can apply the lay the draw strategy during the second half of a football match. Although there isn’t a specific “second half” market for this, you can effectively use the Match Odds market, which is typically the most liquid on platforms like Betfair.

Similar to the Half-Time market strategy, if the game is still level at half-time, the odds for a draw in the Match Odds market often decrease significantly.

The ideal odds range for this trade is usually between 2.5 and 3.0. This range allows you to lay the draw with manageable liability while still providing a good profit potential if a goal is scored in the second half.

The best scenario is if a goal is scored late in the second half, especially by the favorite team, as this can lead to a higher profit on your trade. In the event of a goal in the dying moments of the game, you could achieve up to a 100% profit on your trade.

For traders who prefer a bit of protection, you might consider covering the current score at half-time. For example, if the game is tied 1-1 at half-time, you could place a bet on the 1-1 score while also laying the draw.

This approach safeguards against losing your entire stake if no goals are scored in the second half. However, it might result in breaking even or incurring a minor loss if an early goal is scored in the second half, but it ensures profitability if the goal comes later in the match.

Whether or not to cover the current score depends on your risk tolerance.

Regardless of your approach, it’s essential to conduct thorough research on teams that frequently score (or concede) a significant number of goals in the second half when implementing this strategy.

 

How to Lay the Draw

Trading The Draw vs Straight Betting

Trading the draw is fundamentally different from straight betting against a draw.

While straight betting involves placing a bet on the outcome of the match with the goal of winning a fixed amount of money, trading the draw is more dynamic and involves multiple steps to secure a profit.

To lay the draw, traders typically use a betting exchange like Betfair. The process begins by placing a lay bet on the draw, which means betting against the match ending in a draw.

The trader then waits for a goal to be scored, which causes the draw odds to rise. At this point, the trader can trade out of the position by backing the draw at the new, higher odds.

This locks in a profit regardless of the final outcome of the match.

For instance, if you lay the draw at odds of 3.5 with a £10 stake, your liability is £25. If a goal is scored and the draw odds rise to 5.0, you can back the draw with a £7 stake to cover your liability and secure a profit.

This approach allows traders to profit from the change in odds rather than relying solely on the match outcome.

It’s important to note that the Lay the Draw strategy is not without risk. If the match ends in a draw, the trader will lose their stake.

Additionally, if the underdog scores first, the trader may not be able to profit from the change in odds.

However, with careful selection of matches and a solid understanding of the strategy, Lay the Draw can be a profitable way to engage in football trading.

By combining statistical analysis with live match observation, traders can enhance their chances of success.

This comprehensive approach ensures that trades are based on informed decisions, maximising profit potential while managing risk effectively.

 

What to do if it Goes Wrong – and Right

There are, of course, times when trades do not pan out as we had hoped.

This is perhaps the hardest part of trading to master and causes many traders to lose a lot more money than they should. 

Understanding and implementing draw exit strategies can help manage risks and maximise profits during volatile situations.

People often panic however, over-react, or freeze when a trade goes against them, rather than staying calm and taking effective action. 

In many cases the reaction is a result of not having a clear plan.

However, lay the draw trading is not particularly complicated and it is fairly straightforward to have a plan in place that will allow you to react effectively to the various scenarios that may occur during a game. 

Here are the main ways a lay the draw trade may go against you and how to deal with it:

No Goals Scored

Even with matches expected to have high goal-scoring potential, there will be times when both teams struggle to score.

If you have laid the draw before the match, the recommended approach in such cases is to wait until around the 70-minute mark or until the draw odds fall to 2.0 (whichever happens first), then exit your position.

Typically, you might expect to lose about 50% of your stake in these scenarios. While it can be frustrating, it’s a common part of trading. Careful match selection can help minimize such outcomes.

Alternatively, you could choose to let the game continue until full time, accepting the full loss if it ends in a goalless draw.

However, this carries greater risk. Based on our experience, if a game remains goalless by the 70th minute, it often ends in a 0-0 draw, so trading out at that point is generally a more prudent choice.

Underdog Scores First

In matches where the draw odds are above 4.0, it’s common for the draw odds to decrease if the underdog scores the first goal, potentially putting your trade in a losing position.

You have a few options in this scenario:

  1. Immediate Trade-Out: You can choose to exit the trade immediately, acknowledging that the trade has become unfavorable.
  2. Stay in the Game: Alternatively, you might decide to remain in the game. This decision could be influenced by factors such as:
    • If the underdog is dominating, you might believe they could score again, possibly leading to a favorable 2-0 result.
    • If it’s early in the game, there might still be a chance for the favorite to stage a comeback and potentially win 2-1.

If you decide to keep the bet open, we recommend trading out if the score is 1-1 or still 1-0 in favor of the underdog as the match approaches the 70-minute mark. Leaving the bet open in such cases could risk losing your entire stake, which we generally aim to avoid.

The “Meltatone” Strategy

Some traders propose a strategy known as “meltatone,” which involves laying the underdog when they score first. The idea is to potentially secure a profit or break even if the favorite equalizes as expected.

However, we do not endorse this approach due to the risks involved:

  • Worsened Position: If the underdog scores again, your position can deteriorate further. While the draw odds may rise slightly, the odds for the underdog are likely to drop significantly.
  • Declining Odds: If the match remains at 1-0 in favor of the underdog, their odds will likely continue to decrease, while the draw odds remain relatively stable, putting you at a disadvantage.

Given these risks, we recommend avoiding this strategy. Instead, consider trading out when the underdog scores first or, if the situation suggests, wait for a bit to see if the match dynamics improve in your favor.

 

Things Go Right – “Riding the Wave”

Indeed, when the favorite scores first, you have the option to either exit the trade immediately to secure a profit or let it run in anticipation of a second goal.

Our typical approach involves a thorough assessment of the ongoing match. We focus on factors such as the number of scoring opportunities created by the favorite and their historical performance in winning by more than one goal during the season.

If these indicators suggest a favorable outcome, we often choose to extend the trade, usually until halftime or shortly after, to see if the favorite can score a second goal.

If the favorite manages to score again, the draw odds are likely to rise significantly, presenting a lucrative profit opportunity.

By carefully analyzing match dynamics, reviewing statistical data, and making informed decisions, we can effectively apply the lay the draw strategy when the favored team scores first, enhancing the potential profitability of our trades.

 

Lay The Draw Summary

“Lay the draw” is one of the most well-known and widely used strategies in football trading on betting exchanges.

However, it’s important to recognize that merely laying the draw without a well-structured approach is unlikely to be profitable in today’s highly efficient markets.

That said, the lay the draw strategy can still be effective.

As with other betting and trading systems, the key to success lies not just in the strategy itself but in how you implement it.

Thorough research, refining your trading approach, and focusing on specific aspects—such as the first half, late-game scenarios, or particular teams—are essential for achieving positive results.

Discipline and adherence to your established rules are crucial. Avoid letting emotions like fear or greed influence your decisions, as this can quickly lead to losses.

Patience is vital. Allow your bankroll to grow steadily over time. Most importantly, only use funds that you can afford to lose, as even with a solid strategy, success is not guaranteed in the unpredictable world of sports betting and trading.

Check out this top recommended football betting service here.

 

 

FAQ: Lay the Draw Betting Strategy

1. What is the “Lay the Draw” betting strategy?
The “Lay the Draw” strategy is a popular betting method where a bettor places a lay bet against a draw outcome in a football match. This means you are betting that one team will win and that the match will not end in a draw.

2. How does “Lay the Draw” work?
In the “Lay the Draw” strategy, you place a lay bet against the draw outcome before the match starts. If the game does not end in a draw, you win the bet. If the game is tied, you lose the bet.

You can also trade out during the match, for example after a goal is scored to lock in a profit or after 65 minutes if the game is still tied at that point to minimise losses. 

3. Why is “Lay the Draw” popular?
This strategy is popular because it leverages the fact that most football matches do not end in a draw.

Additionally, if a goal is scored by either team in a game involving evenly-matched teams, the odds on the draw typically drift, allowing bettors to potentially trade out of their position for a profit.

4. What are the best matches to use the “Lay the Draw” strategy in?
The best matches to use this strategy in are matches where you expect goals to be scored, particularly games involving teams with strong attacking play and weaker defenses.

It can also be effective as an in-play strategy, allowing you to manage your bet as the game progresses.

5. What odds should I place a “Lay the Draw” bet at?
When placing a “Lay the Draw” bet, it’s generally recommended to look for matches where the odds on the draw are between 3.0 and 4.5.

This range provides a balance between risk and reward, as it typically reflects a scenario where a draw is possible but not the most likely outcome. Odds outside this range can be more unpredictable, either offering too low a return or carrying too high a risk

6. What are the risks associated with “Lay the Draw”?
The main risk is that the match could end in a draw, resulting in a loss, or if you are trading the match, that it remains tied at your cut-off point to close the trade (e.g. 65 or 70 minutes).

7. Can I cash out my “Lay the Draw” bet?
Yes, you can cash out your bet if the odds have shifted favorably after a goal is scored, or a side has gone two goals ahead. You can also cash out your bet if the game is still tied at a certain point and you want to exit the trade to minimize your losses. 

Many bettors choose to trade out for a profit or minimize potential losses by cashing out their bet if the odds on a draw increase after a goal.

8. What should I do if the trade goes against me?
If the trade goes against you, such as when an early goal is not scored or the match seems likely to end in a draw, you have a few options. You can choose to accept the loss and exit the trade early to limit your losses.

Alternatively, you can let the bet run in the hope that a goal is scored later in the match. It’s crucial to manage your risk and have a clear exit strategy in place before placing the bet.

9. Is “Lay the Draw” suitable for beginners?
While the concept is straightforward, the “Lay the Draw” strategy requires an understanding of football betting markets, odds movements, and in-play betting. 

Beginners should paper trade or bet with small stakes until they become familiar with how the strategy works in real-time scenarios.

10. What factors should I consider before placing a “Lay the Draw” bet?
Before placing a “Lay the Draw” bet, consider the teams’ recent form, head-to-head statistics, injury reports, and the likelihood of goals being scored.

Matches with teams that are prone to scoring or conceding late goals are often ideal candidates for this strategy.

11. What is the “Meltatone” strategy?
The Meltatone strategy involves laying the underdog when they score first, with the aim of securing a profit or breaking even if the favorite equalizes as expected.

However, this approach carries significant risks if the underdog scores again or the score remains 1-0 to the underdog. 

12. Are there any alternatives to the “Lay the Draw” strategy?
Yes, some alternatives include “Backing the Draw” with the intention of laying it off at lower odds after the match progresses, or using other strategies like “Correct Score Trading” to achieve similar results.

13. Are there any tools to assist with Lay the Draw trading?
Yes, there are several tools that can assist with Lay the Draw trading. Popular tools include:

  1. Betfair Trading Software: Platforms like Betfair’s own trading tools or third-party software such as Bet Angel or Fair Bot provide real-time odds tracking, automated trading features, and advanced charting capabilities.
  2. In-Play Stats and Data: Websites and apps offering live match statistics, such as the In-Play Scanner, SofaScore or Flashscore, can provide valuable information to make informed trading decisions during the game.

These tools can help you make more informed decisions and manage your trades more effectively.