Is VAR Ruining Football Trading?
Anyone who’s traded football over the last few months will most likely have been affected by the operation of VAR at some stage.
VAR (aka the Video Assistant Referee) has caused some controversy not just on the pitch and amongst fans all over the world, but in trading circles as well. Such has been the frustration some have experienced, they have gone as far as to say VAR is ruining football trading.
Is that fair though? And what should traders be aware of now that VAR is going to be used in pretty much all the top European leagues and competitions, including the English Premier League?
We will have a look at these questions below.
How Betfair Are Dealing with VAR
The Video Assistant Referee can be used in a variety of different circumstances currently: to check on goals, penalties and red cards as to whether they have been correctly awarded by the on-field referee, or conversely to alert the referee’s attention to something he or she has missed and potentially should have awarded one of these decisions.
Obviously this has presented a conundrum for Betfair as if left unchecked it would potentially mean people losing out because of VAR – rather unfairly – if they traded on something that occurred in a game (e.g. a goal, red card), only for that event to be reversed via VAR.
So for example let’s say Liverpool were playing Man Utd and Liverpool scored the first goal to go 1-0 up. Their odds drop from 2.0 to 1.3.
You bet £100 on Liverpool @ 1.3 after they go 1-0 up.
But what’s that? Oh no, there’s going to be a VAR check, it looks like there may have been a minor infringement in the build-up to the goal. And yes there it is, the goal is chalked off and Liverpool’s odds go back to 2.0.
You would then be sitting on a loss of around £50, through no fault of your own, if Betfair didn’t have rules in place to protect traders in such situations.
Now of course some people might say “it should be up to people to spot whether there might have been an infringement in the build up to the goal and to trade accordingly. If VAR chalked off the goal then it’s tough luck.”
Betfair don’t take this view however and think it is unfair for people to lose out due to a VAR decision. So here is what is says in Betfair’s rules regarding VAR:
“Where a Material Event is cancelled due to a determination made via a video assistant referee, Betfair will void all bets which are matched between the occurrence of the Material Event and the cancellation of it. The voiding of any such bets may take place during the event or retrospectively once a game is completed.“
A Material Event on Betfair is a goal, red card or penalty. Let’s take each of them separately:
A Goal
In the case of a goal, it is pretty straightforward: if a goal is scored but then subsequently reversed (as in the example of Liverpool v Man Utd above), then:
“Bets matched between the time of the goal being scored and the time at which the video assistant referee finishes the review will be voided.”
So basically it will be as if those bets never happened. The same goes for bets placed when a goal is not originally given but then subsequently awarded via VAR – all bets placed in the interim will be voided.
A Penalty
This is a bit more complex, in that Betfair says it will aim to suspend all markets “as soon as we believe the referee will use VAR to review a penalty incident.”
Penalties are a point of controversy with VAR and traders should beware.
However, “only bets matched after the time at which the video assistant referee commences the review will be voided.”
So potentially there could be a window for bets to stand if Betfair doesn’t suspend markets quickly enough if it looks like a VAR review is coming.
Eagle-eyed traders could for example back a team who are on the attack, have a shot blocked by a hand in the box that the ref doesn’t spot and Betfair don’t see either. Then a few seconds later the ref is alerted to it, Betfair suspend the market and a VAR check is initiated. Bets placed within those few seconds would stand under Betfair’s rules currently.
A Red Card
With red cards it is also a little complicated. In the event that a red card is awarded and then reversed by VAR, Betfair says “only bets matched after the time at which the video assistant referee commences the review will be voided.”
So again there could be a window between a red card being awarded and VAR commencing a review when bets would stand. Hopefully in most cases Betfair would keep the market suspended from the time the red card is awarded until the VAR review is completed, but this is not guaranteed so it is worth being aware of.
In the case that a red card is not given at first, but then awarded after a VAR review, again Betfair says “as soon as we believe the referee will use VAR to review a red card incident we will aim to suspend all markets,” but that “only bets matched after the time at which the video assistant referee commences the review will be voided.”
Once again there is a window for bets to potentially be placed that won’t be voided.
So Where Does This Leave Traders?
This can all seem quite confusing and a lot to take in at first, but essentially with goals it is reasonably straightforward and shouldn’t affect trading too much. Any bets placed between the ball hitting the back of the net and VAR completing its review are voided. It’s as if they didn’t happen.
Traders now need to be eagle-eyed and fully aware of Betfair’s rules in relation to VAR.
The complications arise in the case of penalties and red cards, when there is a potential window between an incident happening and either Betfair suspending the market and/or a VAR review happening.
This could work for or against you. Maybe in this window you anticipate a team is going to be awarded a penalty via VAR but Betfair hasn’t realised it yet, so you place a back bet. If you are right you could be in profit, but if you are wrong you could lose out.
In most cases traders are relying on Betfair suspending markets quickly so these anomalies don’t happen, but there are no guarantees.
When Confusion Reigns
One of the biggest problems with VAR has not so much been Betfair’s rules in themselves, but all the confusion that has been created. A clue comes in Betfair’s main rule where it says “The voiding of any such bets may take place during the event or retrospectively once a game is completed.”
We have emphasised “or retrospectively” because it highlights something many people have experienced, ourselves included and that is a situation where you don’t know if your bets are going to be voided or not. Sometimes they are left in the market until after the game, making it difficult to know if you should place more trades given you don’t know for sure what you current situation actually is. That can be quite frustrating.
We even had a situation recently in the Women’s World Cup match between Italy and Brazil where they cancelled bets we had put on in the over/under and correct score markets about 20 mins before a VAR check!
Someone must have got a little trigger-happy and cancelled all bets in the market rather than just those during the VAR window, but the effect was to make it very difficult to trade the rest of the game not knowing the situation regarding our bets.
It took over a day for it all to be sorted out and even affected our bets in other markets like the match odds. And in that time we had our Betfair balance going up and down as Betfair cancelled/removed/reinstated bets. Sadly the customer service we received from Betfair during this time was virtually non-existent, despite contacting them numerous times. And no apology or explanation has been received from Betfair to date.
We are not the only ones to have reported such goings-on and it does present a serious issue for Betfair as to how they deal with VAR going forward. It is not really acceptable for customers to have their bets wrongly cancelled, their Betfair balances affected and then receive no explanation or apology!
Conclusion – Hopefully Not the End of Trading
The bottom line to all this is that it has been a frustrating time for football traders. A lot of confusion has arisen about how to handle VAR – not least from Betfair themselves about how to deal with it and implement their own rules!
We can only hope that in time this settles down and some of the more egregious errors become a thing of the past.
The main conclusions we can draw is to avoid trading altogether around a VAR incident if the opportunity arises. Even if you get some bets on just before or during a VAR review, you are likely to be left in limbo not knowing if your bets will be cancelled or not, potentially even until well after the game has finished.
Our advice would be to try and wait until an incident has been well and truly settled and the game has moved on. And keep a detailed record of your trades and when you placed them, in case there are any issues around cancellation that don’t fit with Betfair’s rules.
Hopefully VAR doesn’t mean the end for football traders or ruin football trading and as we say, we hope that eventually all this will settle down. In the meantime though, do trade carefully and be aware of Betfair’s rules – maybe you will be better informed than them!
Have you been affected by VAR decisions or noticed any anomalies? Please let us know in the comments below.
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