Exploring The Kelly Criterion as a Betting Strategy
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The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that allows you to determine how much you should wager on a single bet. It’s usually based on the odds you’re being offered by the bookmaker.
The main purpose is to minimise the risk of a loss while optimising your bankroll.
Where to Apply the Kelly Criterion
The Kelly Criterion is a formula that can be used to estimate how much of your bankroll you should be putting toward a particular bet.
If you’re betting on a football match, you may believe that the team has a 60% chance of winning.
If you use the Kelly Criterion, you’d put on average 15.56% of your bankroll toward that particular bet.
Although this is a popular strategy for sports games, if you’re playing casino games that are more based on chance, adopting a strategy like the Fibonacci System would be more suited. This is especially the case for Megaways casino games.
The main reason for this is that game types like this offer 177,649 ways to win. Some Megaways games, such as Hey You Guys, offer a bonus boost and 15,625 ways to win, showing the variance between individual games.
Unlike traditional slots, games like this use a dynamic system where the symbols on each reel change with every spin.
When you take into account free spins, multipliers and different game variants, it’s easy to see why a simpler formula, like the Fibonacci Sequence, is easier to implement, especially when you need a faster way to calculate your bet.
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The Importance of Accurate Estimation
One of the most important parts of using the Kelly Criterion is estimating the general probability of winning.
In sports betting, this can be difficult, as the odds of winning can be influenced by the weather, team form, injuries and more.
Predicting things like this is impossible, so manual allowances have to be made when calculating your bet amount.
Although one major benefit of the formula is that you can adjust your bankroll automatically, you do need to be mindful of using inaccurate bet estimations, as this will throw off your strategy.
One good way to account for variances would be for you to use the Fractional Kelly strategy. This is where you bet half or even a quarter of what the formula is telling you to bet.
This reduces your risk, but it also reduces your potential for a good return.
Overall, the Kelly Criterion is a very powerful tool in the world of betting. It helps to maximise long-term growth, and it also helps you to manage risk.
With that being said, it’s important to know when to use it. Betting strategies, such as the Fibonacci Sequence or the Fractional Kelly strategy will help you when you can’t predict the chance of winning or when you’re concerned about outside variances, such as bad weather or player injuries that throw the odds out of your favour.
Even though nothing can be predicted in the world of betting, having a solid strategy is often a good way to regulate your bankroll while adding structure to the experience.
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