Why The Martingale System Is Doomed to Fail
Imagine someone came up to you and asked if you were interested in learning about a betting system that supposedly guarantees a win; you would be all ears, wouldn’t you?
Such a system does exist, and it is widely used today. We are, of course, talking about the Martingale system.
If the Martingale system is 100% guaranteed to lock up a win, why is it that the system is doomed to fail and that seasoned gamblers avoid using it?
The Martingale betting system’s simplicity is one of the main reasons new and recreational gamblers are attracted to it like moths to a flame.
It is more geared towards 50/50 outcomes and is particularly prevalent in casino games like roulette or baccarat.
Some people use the Martingale system in online sports betting markets, but it is better to have as few variables as possible, hence casino games being more suited to the system.
How Does the Martingale Betting System Work?
The Martingale system was popular in the 18th century and continues to prove popular even in today’s games.
Head to the Bellagio or Caesars Palace iconic casinos in Las Vegas, and you can bet your bottom dollar that someone will use this strategy at the blackjack, roulette, and baccarat tables.
You start by betting your base amount. We will use £1 as our base amount to keep things simple.
Each time you win, you take your winnings. Each time your bet loses, you double your bet amount for the next game.
Once you win again, you take your winnings, and your bet returns to the base amount. Your win is enough to cover all your losses and yields a small win, usually around your base bet amount.
It seems perfect, right? Wrong! And here is why.
Why is the Martingale Flawed?
You may be sitting scratching your head, wondering what could possibly go wrong with the Martingale system.
Let us tell you. First, casinos have a house edge, and bookies have vig that helps them lock in profits.
Second, the system relies on the theory that you and the house have infinite bankrolls. Lastly, the Martingale system requires there to be no limits on bet sizes or payouts. You can now see plenty of cracks in the system’s armour.
Let us pretend we are playing roulette with a £1 stake and decide to bet on red each time.
Betting on red/back or odd/even is as close to 50/50 as you will get.
Our first bet loses, so we increase our next bet to £2.
The casino is on a hot streak, and we lose six bets in a row.
What size do you think our seventh bet needs to be? £64 is the answer.
Don’t forget that we need to bet £64 and have a large enough bankroll to cover all of the bets up to this point.
Extend our losing streak to nine bets, and the tenth needs to be £512.
If our losing streak continues to 15 bets, our stake would need to a whopping £8,192.
Our bankroll limits the system’s feasibility, as most bettors would have run out of money by now. But the casino’s betting limits also come into play.
Good luck finding a casino outside the realms of VIP and High Roller rooms that allow you to bet £8,192 on red/black on a roulette wheel.
Those limits are in play to protect the casino and are non-negotiable.
The Martingale system can also be applied to sports betting.
Tennis is a popular sport to use the system because the games cannot end in a draw, so you only have win or lose markets.
Some people use the Martingale on football, despite there being three main results markets.
Again, even in sports betting, Martingale is doomed to fail because of the assumptions of unlimited bankrolls on both sides and the inclusion of limited bet sizes.
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