Understanding Betting Biases and Avoiding Traps
If you haven’t done so already, read Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow. The book explains how we as humans are prone to errors in judgment due to engrained biases and heuristics, and it can make you realise that a lot of the daily decisions you make are based on false information.
For bettors, this should be essential reading. There are loads of biases at play in the complex world of sports betting, and some of these may be affecting your decision-making without you even realising it.
If you can master these, it can help you to avoid traps and overcome pitfalls in betting.
Recency Bias and Optimism Bias are Huge Factors in Betting
We often find ourselves giving too much credence to recent events, as this is the most accessible information we have. You’re more likely to remember something that happened last week than last month, so that can impact your thinking in the here and now.
For example, if Erling Haaland scored a hattrick in the last game, you may be tempted to back him to do it again in the next one. However, in doing this you may be ignoring the fact that he’d been on a six match dry spell in the period before that game.
Bettors need to avoid such a narrow focus, and consider performance over an extended period. The football betting markets always account for various factors, which is how the experts come up with such detailed odds on the matches. If your predictions are wildly misaligned with the odds, it could mean that some biases are in play.
You’ve heard of wishful thinking as well, haven’t you? That’s optimism bias, where you let your heart steer your bets.
Fans of underdog teams are often at the mercy of this bias, believing that their team has the chance to topple the best in the business. To avoid this, it’s a good idea to avoid betting on the team you personally support.
Gambler’s Fallacy and the Overconfidence Trap
You may have heard gambler’s fallacy mentioned before. It’s a common misconception in betting and is best understood when thinking about coin flips.
For example, if a coin has landed on tails ten times in a row, gambler’s fallacy would dictate that it has a greater chance of landing on heads the next time. The reality is that the odds of it landing on heads or tails are still the same as they have always been.
The overconfidence trap is another thing you should ensure you’re not falling into. If you start to believe that you have above average betting skills, it may lead to you putting on riskier wagers in the future.
It’s crucial to stay humble and keep a record of your bets, analysing why they might have worked (or not) and attempting to replicate this in the future.
The more you understand the flaws that everyone has in their thinking, the greater you can protect yourself from making mistakes when betting. Whenever you place a bet, stop and think first. Consider whether there are any biases in play that could be affecting your decisions.
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