The 3 Odds Betting Strategy: Boost Your Profits With Under-the-Radar Bets

When it comes to sports betting we all want that edge to win more. One strategy that’s gaining popularity is the 3 odds betting strategy.

In this guide we’ll cover everything you need to know about this strategy and how you can use it to win more.

Plus we’ll share tips from expert tipsters to help you fine tune your sports betting.

Let’s get started!

What is the 3 Odds Strategy?

We previously had a look at the 2 odds betting strategy, so now let’s have a look at the 3 odds betting strategy. 

The 3 odds strategy is all about betting on outcomes with odds around 3.00 (decimal) which is 2/1 in fractional.

The logic behind this is simple: at these odds you’re betting on events that have around a 33% chance of happening.

These odds may seem like a coin flip but the risk and reward can be managed with the right approach.

How the Strategy Works

The 3 odds betting strategy is effective because you can win a decent amount without having to win every bet.

At 3.00 odds, even winning just slightly more than one out of three bets can be profitable if you manage your bankroll correctly.

Key principles:

• Betting on value: You want to find odds where the actual probability is higher than what the bookies offer.
• Research and analysis: Make sure you properly research each bet and don’t just bet on a whim or “gut instinct.”
• Discipline: This strategy requires patience and sticking to your plan even when losing.

How the 3 Odds Strategy is Different to Other Strategies

Unlike strategies that focus on low risk favourites or highly speculative accumulators, the 3 odds strategy is a balance of risk and reward.

It doesn’t require big stakes like arbitrage betting or backing short-priced favourites.

The Maths of 3 Odds Betting

The 3 odds betting strategy is ultimately about maths. Understanding probability and expected value is key to this strategy.

Probability and How It Applies

At 3.00 odds the implied probability is around 33.33%.

So you’re essentially betting on events that have a 1 in 3 chance of happening.

The key is to find when the actual probability of the outcome is higher than the implied probability – that’s where the value is.

Calculating Expected Value in 3 Odds Bets

Expected value (EV) is the foundation of any betting strategy.

In 3 odds betting the EV is based on working out if the real chances of an event happening are higher than the odds imply.

For example:

• If you think a team has 40% chance of winning (higher than the 33.33% implied) then your bet has a positive EV.
• Remember, to work out the implied chances of an event happening based on the odds, divide 100 by the decimal odds. So decimal odds of 2.0 imply a 50% chance (100 divided by 2.0), decimal odds of 10 imply a 10% chance (100 divided by 10) and so on.  

Ultimately if the odds are 3.0 but chances of winning are above 33.33% then the bet can be worth taking. That is the essence of the 3 odds betting strategy. 

 

The 3 Odds Betting Strategy

Okay let’s get on to looking at some approaches you can take to the 3 odds betting strategy. 

Here are three possible strategies you can follow:

1. Backing Second Favourites in Horse Racing

One way to use the 3 odds betting strategy is to focus on 2nd favourites in horse racing.

Casual punters tend to overlook 2nd favourites and go for either the favourite or long shots.

But 2nd favourites can be great value if certain conditions are met.

The odds for 2nd favourites are usually around 3.00 so they are perfect for this strategy.

Here’s how you can narrow down to under the radar 2nd favourites that have a good chance of winning:

Finding the Right Horses to Back

When backing 2nd favourites, you need to look beyond the odds and into the details of each horse.

Second favourites can be priced attractively when they are not getting as much attention as the favourite but still have a good chance of winning.

Here are a few examples of when this might be the case:

• Coming Back After a Long Break: Horses coming back from a long layoff are often underestimated by bookies and punters alike. But if a horse has a history of performing well fresh (after a break) or its trainer is known for getting horses ready after a layoff, this could be a good opportunity. Punters may undervalue the horse because it hasn’t raced in a while so the odds can often be around 3.00.
• Racing at a Favourite Track: Some horses are better at certain tracks, often because of the layout or surface of the track. These ‘course specialists’ are often overlooked in the betting markets especially if they haven’t raced there for a while. A 2nd favourite back at its favourite track where it has a winning record can be great value at 3.00.
• Top Jockey Booked: When a top jockey is booked for a horse from a smaller or less fashionable yard, this can be a strong sign the horse is fancied to win. Trainers often book high profile jockeys when they think they have a real chance, especially if it’s unusual for that jockey to ride for the yard. If this happens with a 2nd favourite, it can be a hidden edge the market hasn’t priced in.
• Favourable Ground Conditions: Some horses are better on certain types of ground, whether it’s soft, heavy or firm. When a horse that thrives in certain ground conditions runs in those conditions but is 2nd favourite, it can be great value. Ground conditions are often overlooked by casual punters so you can capitalise on a situation where the horse’s performance could exceed expectations.

Example: 2nd favourite at 3.00

Imagine a horse, let’s call it “Silver Breeze”, is 2nd favourite at 3.00.

Silver Breeze is coming back from a 4 month break but has a history of performing well fresh having won in similar circumstances before.

The race is at Silver Breeze’s favourite track where it has won twice in three starts.

A top jockey who rarely rides for the yard has been booked, a good sign the trainer thinks the horse is ready to go.

Despite all these positives the favourite is a more popular horse and getting all the betting money.

Silver Breeze is under the radar at 3.00 so is a well informed bet.

Why This Works

The beauty of backing 2nd favourites in these circumstances is you’re finding value where others aren’t.

The odds on 2nd favourites are often higher than their actual chance of winning because bookies and casual punters are focusing on the favourite.

By targeting horses with specific advantages like a long break, favourite track, top jockey booking or suitable ground you can find 3 odds bets.

This way you can take advantage of the overlooked or undervalued factors and win more while being disciplined and mathematical.

2. Backing the Underdog in Tennis

Another way to use the 3 odds betting strategy is to focus on underdogs in tennis.

Tennis is a sport where individual performances can change on a whim due to conditions, form or head to head.

These dynamics can create situations where the market undervalues certain players when their odds are around 3.00.

Backing underdogs at these odds means you can find value where the player is more likely to win than the market thinks.

Here’s how you can refine this approach to win more:

Finding Underdogs with Value

In tennis an underdog might be 3.00 because they are up against a higher ranked player.

But rankings don’t always tell the full story. To find value in backing underdogs you need to go deeper into the stats and look at specific factors that give the lower ranked player an edge:

• Head-to-Head Records: Tennis players have psychological advantages or stylistic matchups that favour them over certain opponents regardless of their overall ranking. For example a lower ranked player may have beaten a higher ranked opponent in previous encounters especially if their playing style disrupts the favourite’s game. If the head to head record shows the underdog has a good chance of winning this can be a great value bet at 3.00.
• Playing Surface: Tennis is a sport where surface plays a huge role in determining outcomes. Some players excel on certain surfaces whether it’s clay, grass or hard courts. If an underdog is playing on their preferred surface they may have a better chance than their odds suggest. For example a player known for their clay court prowess might be undervalued when facing a higher ranked opponent who performs better on hard courts. Identifying these surface specialists can lead to profitable opportunities.
• Player Form and Fitness: Tennis seasons are long and players’ form can fluctuate dramatically. A higher ranked player might be out of form or injured and the underdog can cause an upset. Conversely the underdog might be in form and have won a few matches or tournaments recently. By following player form you can identify when the market is undervaluing an underdog’s chances.
• External Factors: Conditions such as weather, location and even crowd support can have a big impact on a tennis match. For example an underdog playing in their home country might get a boost from the crowd while extreme weather conditions (strong winds or extreme heat) might favour the underdog’s style of play. These external factors are often overlooked by casual punters creating value opportunities for those who pay attention.

Example: Underdog at 3.00

Imagine an underdog such as Elina Svitolina is 3.00 against a higher ranked opponent like Coco Gauff.

Gauff has the better ranking and has been playing well on hard courts but this match is on clay and Svitolina is a better player on the red dirt.

In their two previous encounters on clay Svitolina won both times despite being lower ranked.

At 3.00 Svitolina is a great value bet especially with her head to head record and clay court prowess.

And she is in form having reached the quarters of a recent clay tournament while Gauff has been on a long hard court season and is showing signs of fatigue.

So Svitolina is an underdog with a good chance of causing an upset.

Why This Works

Backing underdogs in tennis at 3.00 can be very profitable because the tennis betting market overvalues higher ranked players.

This is particular the case in regular events played over 3 sets rather than grand slam events played over 5 sets (in men’s tennis at least).

Upsets regularly occur over 3 sets and pro tennis bettors often look for value in underdogs rather than favourites. 

By focusing on underdogs with specific edges – head to head records, surface specialists or in form – you can find value bets that others miss.

Tennis is a sport where match dynamics can change quickly so it’s a great place to apply the 3 odds betting strategy.

With the right analysis and discipline on your bankroll backing underdogs can be very profitable over time.

 

3. Backing Top Scorers to Score Anytime in Football

Another way to use the 3 odds strategy is to back top scorers to score anytime in football.

Here you’re looking at prolific goal scorers who are key players for their team and have a good chance to score in a match.

Top scorer odds can be around 3.00 in matches where the opposing defence is strong or the striker is coming off a goal drought.

Here’s how to do it:

Why Top Scorers Provide Value

Top scorers are the focal point of their team’s attack, so they’re most likely to get goal scoring opportunities.

Betting on them to score anytime at 3.00 odds can be value when specific factors work to their advantage:

• Favourable Opponent: Some strikers perform well against certain teams, either because of the opponent’s weak defence or because the team’s style of play gives them more opportunities in front of goal. For example a striker who thrives against lower table teams with leaky defences is more likely to score, so the value of a bet on them to score increases.
• Penalty Takers and Set Pieces: Players who take penalties or free-kicks increase their chances of scoring. If a team has a regular penalty taker who is also the top scorer, betting on them to score anytime is a strong play at 3.00 odds, especially in physical games where penalties might be awarded.
• Player Form: A striker in form and scoring consistently is often overpriced in the markets. But if their odds are still 3.00 despite their form, that’s value. Conversely a top scorer going through a short goal drought might have slightly inflated odds but still has the talent and opportunity to score in any given match.
• Team’s Playing Style: If a team is an attacking team with the top scorer at the centre of their attacks, there’s a higher chance of that player scoring. Teams that create chances increase the probability of their main striker scoring, especially if they’re the target for crosses, through balls or set pieces.

Example Scenario: 3.00 Odds Value

Bukayo Saka is the top scorer for Arsenal and is 3.00 to score anytime in a big match against a top-six team.

The Gunners’ normal penalty taker is injured and you suspect Saka will be on penalties today in their stead. Saka has scored 4 of his last 5 penalties.

Whilst the opposing defence is generally fairly strong, they struggle against pacey strikers like Saka and their centre backs have conceded a number of penalties this season. So backing Saka at 3.00 is value.

Despite being a quality striker, the market has slightly inflated Saka’s odds because of the big match and because the England man has not scored for five games.

However, he has been playing well in those games and has had a good number of shots on target – they just haven’t been going in due to a mixture of bad luck and goalkeeper heroics. 

But given his form, penalty taking and the style of play favouring him, backing him to score anytime at 3.00 is a calculated risk with good potential reward.

Why This Works

Backing top scorers to score anytime is a 3 odds betting strategy because you’re betting on the most likely player to score, but often the odds reflect an underestimation of that likelihood due to external factors like team form, recent results or the quality of the opponent.

By looking at the player’s form, opponent weaknesses and key roles like set pieces you can find value in these markets.

This strategy combines statistical analysis with situational awareness, giving you an edge over casual bettors who may only consider overall team form or favouritism when placing their bets.

 

Risk Management and Bankroll in the 3 Odds Betting Strategy

One of the key elements of this strategy is bankroll management.

At 3.00 odds losing streaks can happen so you need to have a solid bankroll management plan in place.

A general rule of thumb is to never stake more than 1-2% of your total bankroll on any one bet.

This way you can weather a losing streak without blowing your whole bankroll.

 

Common Mistakes with the 3 Odds Betting Strategy and How to Avoid Them

No strategy is without risk. Here are the common mistakes of the 3 odds strategy and how to avoid them.

Emotional Betting and the 3 Odds Strategy

It’s easy to get emotional when betting especially during a bad run. But the key to long term success is to stick to your strategy and not place bets on a whim and without solid research behind them. 

Overreliance on Favourites or Underdogs

Betting on favourites might seem like a safe bet but don’t overdo it. Same with always betting on underdogs.

The 3 odds strategy is about balance and finding value not just backing favourites or outsiders.

Chasing Losses on 3.0 Bets

Chasing losses on 3.0 bets is a common pitfall, as the temptation to recover quickly after a few losses can lead to reckless betting and poor decision-making—it’s crucial to maintain discipline and stick to your strategy, rather than letting emotions drive your bets.

Not Adapting to Market Changes

The sports betting landscape is always changing. Whether it’s a change in odds, team performance or market trends you need to be adaptable and adjust your strategy accordingly.

 

Conclusion

The 3 odds strategy is an under-the-radar approach to attacking the betting markets. 

Most punters like to focus on either favourites or long-shots, but good value can often be found at around the 3.0 odds mark. 

It has the added benefit of having a good risk-reward ratio: a decent win rate of around 33%, whilst also having the potential to produce solid returns, unlike backing odds-on shots for example.  

By understanding the maths behind it, having a solid plan and conducting thorough research before placing your bets, you can maximise your chances of winning 3.0 bets.

Remember patience and discipline is key to this strategy working for you.

Happy betting!