Football betting offers a variety of exciting markets, and one of the most popular is betting on the total goals scored in a match.

Among these options is the “Over 2.0 goals” market, a favourite of many punters.  

This type of bet allows for a greater chance of winning or at least getting your money back compared to some other goal markets.

Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just starting, understanding how the “Over 2.0 goals” market works can help improve your betting strategy and maximise your chances of success.

In this guide, we’ll explore everything you need to know about betting on “Over 2” goals, from how the odds are calculated to strategies you can use and common mistakes to avoid.

What Does “Over 2” Mean in Football Betting?

If you’re new to football betting you may have seen the “Over 2” goals market and wondered what that means.

The “Over 2” bet is a bet on the total number of goals in a football match.

In this case you’re betting the combined score of both teams will be over 2 goals.

Unlike other goal markets such as “Over 2.5” the “Over 2” bet has three possible outcomes, you can win, lose or get your stake back.

How it Works

Here’s how it works in real life:

• If the match ends with 3 or more goals (e.g. 2-1, 3-0, 4-2) your bet wins and you get your profit.
• If exactly 2 goals are scored (e.g. 1-1, 2-0) your stake is returned (a “push”) and you neither win nor lose.
• If less than 2 goals are scored (e.g. 0-0, 1-0) your bet loses.

This type of bet is good for those who want a bit of insurance, knowing a 2 goal match will at least get their stake back.

Here is a table summarising how the Over 2.0 bet works:

The “over 2 goal” market can be a lower risk option than betting on higher goal lines such as over 2.5 goals for example.

It’s especially effective in matches where you think there will be some goals but want the safety of a refund if only 2 goals are scored.

Over 2 vs Over 2.5

One of the biggest sources of confusion is the difference between “Over 2” and “Over 2.5”.

With “Over 2.5” there’s no chance of getting your stake back. The bet wins only if 3 or more goals are scored and loses if 2 or less are scored.

The difference between over 2.0 goals and over 2.5 goals can be summarised as follows:-

So “Over 2” is a safer option for more conservative punters, while “Over 2.5” has higher odds since the outcomes are more binary (win or lose, no refunds).

Winning and Losing Examples

Here are a few examples:

• You place an “Over 2” bet on a Liverpool vs Manchester United match and the final score is 2-1, your bet wins because 3 goals were scored.
• The match ends 1-1, 2 goals were scored so your stake is returned.
• The score is 0-0 or 1-0, 2 goals or less were scored so the bet loses.

This is what makes “Over 2” a popular choice for punters who want a more conservative approach.

Check out this top football tipster with over 200 points profit made, fully verified.

The Odds for Over 2.0 Goals

The odds for over 2.0 goals tend to be somewhere between those for over 1.5 goals and over 2.5 goals, as you might expect. 

For example, in a match between Bournemouth and Arsenal in the Premier League, the odds for over 2.0 goals is 1.32 (odds from the Betfair Exchange).

That compares to odds of 1.80 for over 2.5 goals and odds of 1.15 for the over 1.5 goals.

In summary then the odds for these goals markets in this match are:

• Over 1.5 goals: 1.15
• Over 2.0 goals: 1.32
• Over 2.5 goals: 1.8

If you placed a bet of £10 on over 2.0 goals at 1.32 and the game finished 3-1 for example, you would make £3.20 profit. 

The lower odds for over 2.0 goals reflect that this is a slightly safer option than the over 2.5 goals bet.

👉 Check out our top recommended over under tipster here.

How Bookmakers Calculate Over 2.0 Goals Odds

Bookmakers use complex algorithms and statistical models to set odds for goal markets.

They look at the teams attacking and defensive records, recent form, the average number of goals and xG (expected goals) in similar matches.

This data helps them determine the chances of a match having more than 2 goals and set the odds accordingly.

For example if two high scoring teams are playing, the odds for Over 2.0 might be lower because more goals are expected.

If two defensive teams are playing the odds for Over 2.0 might be higher because less goals are expected.

Factors that Affect the Odds

Several factors influence the odds for Over 2.0 goals:

• Team form: If both teams have been scoring freely in recent matches the odds for Over 2.0 will reflect that.
• Head to head records: Historical data matters. If previous matches between the teams have been high scoring bookmakers will set lower odds for Over 2.0.
• League trends: Different leagues have different average number of goals per game. For example the Bundesliga has more goals on average at 3.17 per game, versus La Liga that has 2.51 goals per game, so that will affect the odds for Over 2.0 goals.

Over 2.0 Odds Across Different Leagues and Matches

Always compare the odds for Over 2.0 goals across different matches and leagues.

Some leagues like the Premier League and La Liga have lower odds for Over 2.0 because more goals are expected while lower scoring leagues like La Liga have higher odds on average for this bet.

How to Spot Value in Over 2.0 Odds

One way to spot value is to look for teams with good attacking records but maybe underrated by the market.

If a bookmaker is offering higher odds for Over 2.0 in a match you think will have goals, that’s a good opportunity.

Also keep an eye on team news, if a key defender or a good goalkeeper is injured that could increase the chances of more goals being scored.

Strategies for Betting on Over 2.0 Goals

Like all bets, success with Over 2.0 requires strategy and research.

Researching Team Stats and Goal Scoring Trends

Before you place an Over 2.0 bet you need to dig into the teams goal scoring stats.

Look at how many goals they score and concede, especially in recent matches.

Are they in good form offensively? Are key strikers available? 

Study their recent scores in particular. Ideally you are looking for teams who score – and concede – lots of goals, have the occasional 1-1 or 2-0 game, but very few with less than two goals.

That way you would at least get your money back if there are two goals but are trying to avoid the under 2 goals scenario. 

Playing Styles and Tactics

Teams that play attacking football with high pressing or fast counter attacking are more likely to have high scoring games.

Teams with defensive mindset or possession football might have lower scoring matches.

Weather Conditions and Scoring

Believe it or not weather can affect goal scoring. Heavy rain or snow can make it hard for teams to play football, that can lead to less goals.

Check the weather forecast for match day before you place your bet.

Timing: When to Place Your Over 2.0 Bets

Timing is also important. Placing your bet just before the match might give you the opportunity to get late team news like a key player being ruled out.

Or you might find better odds earlier in the week before the market adjusts.

In-Play Betting on Over 2.0 Goals: Adapt as the Action Develops

When you’re watching a match live, you have the flexibility to adjust your over 2.0 goals bet as the game progresses.

If both teams are generating opportunities but haven’t found the back of the net yet, it could be a great moment to place your bet.

Tools like the In-Play Scanner can prove invaluable by alerting you to games where there’s heavy attacking activity and a goal seems imminent.

It evaluates matches based on key actions like attacks, corners, and shots.

Once a game reaches a specific threshold (like 70), it suggests a high likelihood of a goal, and you’ll receive an alert.

During a three-month test we carried out, the scanner produced £632 in profit from the alerts it issued.

One major perk of in-play betting is the chance to capitalise on improved odds if the match starts slowly but you anticipate goals later on.

Mistakes to Avoid When Betting Over 2.0 Goals

There are some common mistakes bettors make when backing Over 2.0 goals.

Underestimating Team News and Injuries

Never underestimate the impact of injuries. A match that looks like it will have goals can change completely if a key striker or creative midfielder is ruled out.

Always check the latest team news before you bet.

Ignoring the Competition Stage

Matches in the knockout stages of the tournament are often tighter and more defensive compared to group stages where teams might be more willing to take risks.

Be aware of the context of the game.

The Gambler’s Fallacy in Goal Expectations

Don’t assume that just because a team hasn’t scored in a few matches they are “due” for a high scoring game. Each match should be judged on its own merits.

Chasing Losses with Over 2.0 Bets

Chasing losses is a trap many bettors fall into. If you’re on a losing streak don’t place bigger bets on Over 2.0 to win back your losses.

Conclusion – Over 2 Goals Betting

Betting on “Over 2.0” goals is a fantastic way to tap into the dynamic nature of football, offering flexibility and solid chances of a return on your bet.

By understanding the odds, researching team stats, and avoiding common pitfalls, you can build a winning strategy.

Whether you’re betting pre-match or live, there’s always an opportunity to find value in this market.

Ready to try your hand at “Over 2.0” betting? Check out the latest matches and start placing smarter bets today!

Frequently Asked Questions About Over 2.0 Goals Betting

Here are some FAQs related to Over 2.0 goals betting:

1. What happens if exactly 2 goals are scored in an Over 2.0 bet?

If exactly two goals are scored in the match, your “Over 2.0” bet is considered a “push,” meaning your stake is refunded. You don’t win, but you also don’t lose any money.

This is what makes the “Over 2.0” market a safer option for many bettors compared to “Over 2.5,” where two goals would result in a loss.

2. Is Over 2.0 a good bet for beginners?

Yes, “Over 2.0” is a great option for beginners because it offers a bit of safety with the possibility of a refund if exactly two goals are scored.

This market allows you to bet on goals while limiting risk compared to betting on “Over 2.5” or similar goal markets.

It’s a good way to ease into goal betting and learn about different teams’ scoring abilities.

3. What is the difference between Over 2.0 and Over 2.5 in football betting?

The key difference is that in “Over 2.0” betting, if exactly two goals are scored, you get your stake back, while in “Over 2.5” betting, two goals would result in a loss.

To win an “Over 2.0” bet, the total goals must be three or more, but two goals give you a refund, offering a bit of insurance.

In “Over 2.5,” only three or more goals win the bet—there’s no refund if two goals are scored.

4. Which football leagues are best for betting on Over 2.0 goals?

Some leagues are known for higher goal averages and may offer better opportunities for betting on “Over 2.0” goals.

The Bundesliga, Premier League, and Eredivisie are typically high-scoring leagues where “Over 2.0” bets may frequently come into play.

Leagues like La Liga and the Greek Super League tend to have lower goal averages, so it might be more difficult to find consistent “Over 2.0” opportunities. 

On the other hand, if you can spot an under-the-radar game that you think will be high-scoring, these lower-scoring leagues can present value opportunities with the odds for over 2 goals typically being higher.

5. Can I cash out an Over 2.0 bet before the match ends?

Yes, many bookmakers offer cash-out options for “Over 2.0” bets, allowing you to lock in a profit or minimise losses before the final whistle.

For example, if there have already been two goals scored and you think the game will slow down, you might choose to cash out for a partial win rather than risk the bet losing if no further goals are scored.

6. How can I predict if a match will have over 2.0 goals?

To predict if a match will have over 2.0 goals, it’s important to research the teams’ recent goal-scoring form, their head-to-head record, and factors such as injuries to key players.

Teams that have high-scoring games and an attacking style of play are more likely to see games with more than two goals.

Additionally, checking the league average for goals and the weather conditions for the match can provide more insight.

7. Can I combine Over 2.0 with other bets?

Yes, combining “Over 2.0” with other bets is a popular strategy. You can include “Over 2.0” goals in accumulator bets, or live betting strategies. 

8. What’s the difference between betting on Over 2.0 and Under 2.0?

Betting on “Over 2.0” means you’re expecting more than two goals in the game, while betting on “Under 2.0” means you’re betting on fewer than two goals.

In an “Under 2.0” bet, if exactly two goals are scored, you get your stake refunded. If fewer than two goals are scored (e.g., 0-0, 1-0), you win the bet.

If more than two goals are scored, the “Under 2.0” bet loses.

9. How do I know if I’m getting good odds for Over 2.0 goals?

Good odds for “Over 2.0” goals can be spotted by comparing the implied probability with your own research and analysis.

If your data suggests a high chance of more than two goals but the bookmaker is offering attractive odds (indicating they think it’s less likely), you may have found value.

Monitoring odds across different bookmakers and using odds comparison tools can help you find the best price for your bet.

10. Should I wait to place an Over 2.0 bet in-play?

In-play betting on “Over 2.0” can sometimes offer better odds, especially if the match starts slowly with no early goals.

However, waiting to bet in-play carries some risk, as an early goal could cause the odds to drop sharply.

It’s all about timing and predicting the flow of the game—if you expect goals to come later in the match, in-play betting can provide good opportunities.

11. Do Extra Time and Penalties Count?

No, extra time and penalties do not count in an over 2.0 goals bet. It is based on the score in 90 minutes (plus injury time). 

Find out who the Top 10 Football Tipsters in the World are here.

Betting strategy is only half the battle when it comes to sports betting. The other half is bankroll management.

Even the best tipsters in the world would lose if they didn’t manage their bankroll.

In this article we’ll go through the top bankroll management tips from pro tipsters to help you ride the ups and downs of sports betting and make long term profit.

What is Sports Betting Bankroll Management?

Bankroll management in sports betting means how you allocate and control your funds over time.

It’s a process that ensures you bet within your means so you can stay in the game long enough to take advantage of winning runs and the good betting times.

Rather than betting on a whim, bankroll management sets rules for how much to bet on each bet based on your bankroll.

Why is this important? Because even the best punters have losing streaks.

Without a good bankroll management system you can blow your whole balance in a few bad bets.

Betting is about the long term and good bankroll management helps you ride the waves of luck without going under.

There’s a few myths about bankroll management like it’s only for high rollers or professional punters. In reality it’s for all punters, to reduce risk and maximise gain.

The Golden Rule: Never Bet More Than You Can Afford to Lose

One of the golden rules all pro tipsters live by is simple: never bet more than you can afford to lose.

This means setting a clear, realistic budget for your betting and sticking to it no matter what.

First of all determine how much disposable income you have to put into sports betting.

This is money you can lose without affecting your daily expenses, bills or savings.

Once you’ve done that it’s important to separate your betting funds from your personal funds.

Keeping your betting bankroll separate helps you to control and prevents you from using money meant for other things to chase losses.

Responsible betting has psychological benefits too. It helps you to bet with a clear head, knowing you’re not betting more than you can afford, reducing the stress and anxiety that comes with gambling.

Unit Betting System: Keep it Consistent

One of the most popular staking methods among pro tipsters is the unit betting system.

This system involves betting a consistent percentage of your bankroll on each bet, called a “unit” or “point.”

A unit (or point) is usually 1-2% of your total bankroll.

So if you had a $1,000 bankroll for example, each bet would be $10 (1%) or $20 (2%).

Here is an example of how to operate percentage staking:  

The unit betting system is simple. It helps you to be consistent and disciplined, no single bet can wreck your bankroll.

And by adjusting your unit size as your bankroll grows or shrinks you can manage risk.

The Kelly Criterion: A Tipster’s Best Friend

Another approach professional bettors use to calculate the optimal bet size is the Kelly Criterion. It maximises profit while minimising risk.

The formula is:

Kelly % = (BP – Q) / B

Where B is the decimal odds, P is the probability of winning and Q is the probability of losing.

In simple terms the Kelly Criterion tells you to bet more on bets where the odds are in your favour and less on those where the advantage is smaller.

Many tipsters swear by it as it stops them from making impulsive decisions based on gut feel.

However it’s worth noting the Kelly Criterion isn’t without its flaws. The formula is based on the accuracy of your probability estimates which can be hard to gauge.

If you get the numbers wrong you can end up betting too much or too little.

Bankroll Growth Strategies: Compound Interest for Punters

Once you’ve got the basics of bankroll management down you can start thinking about growth strategies.

One such strategy is to reinvest your profits rather than withdraw them. By keeping your profits in your bankroll you allow it to grow over time, just like compound interest in a savings account.

The power of compound growth can grow your bankroll rapidly. But you need to find a balance. Some punters withdraw part of their profits and reinvest the rest.

A common approach is to withdraw a percentage of your winnings when you reach certain milestones or at certain points in time (for example at the end of the year) so you can still enjoy your profits while growing your bankroll.

As your bankroll grows so can your base unit size and you can bet bigger while still managing risk.

Dealing with Losing Streaks: Don’t Chase Losses!

Losing streaks are part of sports betting. Even the best punters will go through tough times so having a plan in place for dealing with them is crucial.

The key is not to chase losses. That’s when you increase your stakes to try and get back what you’ve lost.

This is a dangerous strategy that often leads to even bigger losses. Instead stay disciplined and stick to your betting plan, adjust your bet sizes if needed.

Some pro tipsters recommend reducing their stakes during losing streaks to protect their bankroll, others stick to their approach and try to weather the storm.

Either way managing your emotions and being patient is key.

Diversification: Don’t Put All Your Eggs in One Basket

A common mistake among punters is to focus all their bets on one sport, league or type of bet.

While specialisation can be good, it also increases the risk of downturns. To protect your bankroll diversification is key.

Spread your bets across different sports, leagues and tipsters to balance your portfolio.

By diversifying you reduce the risk of a single losing streak wiping out your bankroll.

Diversification also allows you to balance high risk bets with safer, more consistent bets which can smooth out the ups and downs of betting.

However, it’s also important to make sure you have an adequate betting bankroll to follow multiple tipsters or betting strategies.

It’s recommended to keep a separate bankroll for each tipster and ensure that each one is large enough to withstand losing streaks and drawdowns.

Here’s an example of how to manage your bankroll if you had $5,000 and wanted to follow five different tipsters at the same time:

Record Keeping: Track Your Bets Like a Pro

One of the habits of professional tipsters is their record keeping.

By tracking every bet you make you can see patterns, strengths and weaknesses in your strategy and make better decisions over time.

The key metrics to track are the bet amount, odds, outcome and profit/loss for each bet. There are several apps and tools available to track your bets such as bettin.gs or Trademate Sports.

By reviewing your betting data regularly you can see trends and make informed adjustments to your bankroll management strategy and improve your overall performance.

Bankroll Protection: Win and Loss Limits

Bankroll management isn’t just about how much you bet, it’s also about when to stop. Setting win and loss limits is a great way to protect your bankroll from wild swings.

Daily, weekly or monthly limits can stop you overbetting during hot streaks or chasing losses during bad runs.

If you hit your pre-set loss limit it’s time to take a step back, reassess and come back with a clear head.

Same with winning streaks, setting a win limit will stop you from getting overconfident and making silly bets.

Taking breaks and not getting “tilt”—betting emotionally after a loss—will keep your bankroll intact in the long run.

Using Bonuses and Promotions Wisely

Most bookmakers offer a range of bonuses and promotions to attract punters but knowing how to use these into your bankroll management strategy is key.

Bonuses can add value but read the terms and conditions carefully. Some bonuses come with strict wagering requirements that may not be worth it in the long run. This can sometimes be the case with casino bonuses in particular. 

So it’s important to read the full terms of the offer and understand the wagering requirements of any offer. 

It it requires you to wager the bonus 20x, 50x or more then quite simply it may not be worth it. 

Standard bookie free bet offers don’t tend to be so stringent though. Even with those however it’s important to check the terms and conditions so you aren’t caught out.  

Setting Realistic Goals

Set achievable goals based on your bankroll.

For example, a 5-10% monthly growth target might be reasonable, but it’s important to avoid unrealistic expectations, which could lead to poor decisions.

Remember that it’s long-term tipster performance that counts, not their results over the last few days or weeks. 

Keep your focus on their long-term results over the course of a year or more.  

Knowing When to Stop Following a Tipster

If a tipster experiences prolonged losing streaks, it may be time to stop following them.

Keep an eye on long-term trends and avoid emotional decisions based on short-term results.

By following these principles, you can better manage your bankroll, mitigate risk, and evaluate the value of each tipster you follow.

Conclusion – Managing your Bankroll Like a Pro

By following these tips from the pros you’ll not only protect your bankroll but be well ahead of the vast majority of punters who tend to bet erratically with no thought of managing their bankroll. 

Remember sports betting bankroll management is all about discipline, patience and making informed decisions.

Stick to these and you’ll be giving yourself the best chance of coming out on top in the wild world of sports betting.

For years sports betting has been a world where tipsters ruled the roost, using a combination of skill, stats, analysis, hard work and sometimes even just a bit of good old-fashioned human intuition.  

But with the advent of technology, particularly artificial intelligence (AI), the world of sports prediction has started to change.

Now AI powered systems are challenging human tipsters and the debate is on as to which one is more accurate and better value.

In this article we’ll look at the evolution of sports prediction, the science behind AI systems and answer the question: is AI better than tipsters? 

The Evolution of Sports Prediction: From Gut Feelings to Algorithms

Sports betting has been around for centuries, from a simple bet between friends to the multi-billion dollar industry it is today.

Early predictions in betting were often based on gut feel and some knowledge of the sport.

Professional tipsters emerged in the 20th century and offered bettors calculated predictions based on their expertise.

With the advent of data analytics in the 21st century a new era began. Numbers and patterns started to join human insight.

Artificial intelligence in sports betting has taken this data-driven approach to a whole new level.

Machine learning sports prediction models can now process vast amounts of data in real time, crunching reams of data almost instantly. 

The rise of AI and machine learning in sports prediction has led to more complex systems that claim to outperform the best human tipsters.

But can AI really surpass the expertise and human experience that tipsters bring to the table?

How AI Sports Prediction Works: The Science Behind the Scores

AI sports prediction is driven by machine learning algorithms that use big datasets to find patterns and make predictions.

These algorithms are trained on historical data such as player stats, team performance, head-to-head records and even weather conditions.

By learning from this data AI systems can make predictions more accurately.

One of the key benefits of AI is its ability to process real-time sports data analysis.

For example automated sports prediction systems can track live updates during a game and adjust their predictions accordingly.

This level of responsiveness gives AI a big advantage over traditional methods where predictions were made before a game and stay static.

Neural networks for game prediction are thought to be one of the most promising forms of AI, as they are designed to mimic the human brain’s learning process.

So based on this you would think AI would be the answer to all our betting-related problems, right? 

Certainly the AI enthusiasts would like us to believe so. 

IBM’s Watson is a much-heralded example of using AI in sports prediction and it has been used to predict match outcomes in tennis to show the potential of AI betting accuracy.

However, its results do not appear to have performed particularly well and there is scant evidence yet that it is able to produce a positive return when predicting match outcomes. 

This is true of much AI in sports prediction – a lot of hype and excitement, but little sign yet it can actually deliver the goods in terms of producing profitable predictions. 

The Human Touch: Understanding the Role of Tipsters

While AI is trying to change the world of sports prediction, human tipsters still have a big part to play in the betting world.

Tipsters bring experience and inside knowledge, often tapping into factors that are hard for machines to quantify.

Human tipsters can build relationships with bettors and offer personalised advice and understand their preferences.

One of the main strengths of tipsters is their ability to consider psychological factors, team morale, a player’s form, or even internal strife within a club.

These can be key to predicting outcomes and expert tipster strategies often include intangibles that AI misses.

And the relationship between bettors and tipsters is built on trust. People want to follow experts they feel understand the sport more.

The human touch in sports forecasting can create a loyal following that AI may struggle to replicate.

AI vs Tipsters: A Head to Head Comparison

When comparing AI sports prediction vs tipsters you need to consider many factors.

In terms of accuracy rates, tipsters still outperform AI, perhaps because they are able to factor in the human element to betting that AI cannot.

AI generated betting tips benefit from being free from emotional bias, being based solely on data.

But human tipsters are more adaptable. While AI can struggle with unexpected events like a last minute player injury, human experts can adjust their predictions quickly.

Whilst historical data is the backbone of AI, it doesn’t account for anomalies. A seasoned tipster however sees an opportunity in those.

In terms of speed and volume however, AI wins hands down. Automated bots can produce predictions for multiple games in seconds, whereas human tipsters take time to research and analyse each game.

But that speed can sometimes come at the cost of the nuance that only a human touch can bring.

In terms of results, human tipsters are way ahead at the moment. 

Across a whole range of sports, there are top quality verified tipsters who have produced a profit over long periods of time.  

These are tipsters we have tested ourselves under live trial conditions and verified their results.

For each sport below there are numerous high quality tipsters:

• Best Football Tipsters
• Best Horse Racing Tipsters
• Best Golf Tipsters
• Best Tennis Tipsters
• Best Boxing Tipsters
• Best Sports Tipsters

So that’s a good number of first-rate, verified tipsters who have proven their ability to beat the bookies over an extended period.

However, turning to AI we have only come across one service so far – in any sport – that has produced positive results and that is football AI prediction platform Predictology.

As we remarked when looking at the Best AI Football Predictions, there are a large number of AI prediction websites out there but very few have published their results – let alone had those results verified. 

It is therefore very difficult to know if they are any good or not. You would think if they were profitable though, they would be very keen to publish their results.  

So the reality is there is a huge amount of work to do for AI to do to catch up with expert tipsters. 

Perhaps one day it will do so, but for the time being human tipsters clearly still rule the roost.  

AI Sports Prediction Pros and Cons

Pros:

• Objectivity: AI is bias free, it makes predictions based on data only.
• Data Processing Power: AI can process huge amounts of data in real time to make informed predictions.
• Consistency: AI doesn’t get tired or distracted, it can perform at the same level consistently.

Cons:

• Lack of Intuition: AI can’t factor in team morale or psychological factors. 
• Algorithmic Bias: AI systems can develop bias based on the data they are trained on.
• Historical Data: AI is heavily reliant on past data, it can’t predict the unexpected.

Human Tipster Strengths and Weaknesses

Pros:

• Proven results: There are numerous tipsters with verified, profitable long-term records.
• Intuition: Human tipsters can make judgement calls based on experience and the human element to betting.
• Adaptability: Tipsters can adjust predictions based on new information in real time.
• Understanding of Intangibles: Human experts can factor in psychological and emotional aspects that AI might miss.

Cons:

• Emotional Bias: Human predictions can be influenced by personal preferences or bias.
• Limited Data Processing: Humans can’t process as much data as AI, potential blind spots.
• Inconsistency: Tipsters have good and bad days and can be affected emotionally by losing runs, potentially impacting the quality of their tips.

AI in the Sports Betting Industry

AI is slowly starting to change the sports betting landscape. AI powered odds calculation is becoming more prevalent, with bookies using it to produce more accurate odds.

Sports betting algorithm development has also led to new AI driven platforms that offer bettors real time betting recommendations based on continuously updated data.

Platforms like Predictology for example use AI and machine learning to provide detailed predictions and betting insights.

It utilises a database of over 350,000 football matches worldwide to create and refine football strategies.

From this dataset the AI is able to produce football predictions which are provided to members. 

This is one of the few examples we have come across so far of AI sports predictions that actually appear to be effective. 

If AI models like this can be developed and improved upon further, then they have the potential to change how bettors approach their betting. 

However, for the time being the jury is still out on whether AI can challenge the skills of expert tipsters. 

Hybrid Prediction Models: A Future Option?

Rather than choosing between AI or human tipsters, the future may be a hybrid approach that combines the best of both.

AI assisted tipster services are already emerging where human experts use AI tools to enhance their predictions.

Hybrid prediction models can offer bettors a more complete view of upcoming games: AI’s data driven insights, plus human intuition.

As AI sports prediction platforms evolve we may see more human tipsters and AI systems working together to produce more effective predictions.

AI Sports Prediction Ethics

As with any new technology there are ethical considerations. Transparency in AI decision making is key to fair play and to prevent manipulation.

Bettors need to know how predictions are made and if there is any bias in the algorithms.

Another concern is the impact on traditional tipsters. As AI gets better human experts could be displaced.

But by using AI as a tool rather than a competitor tipsters could potentially enhance their own services and stay relevant in the changing betting landscape.

Summary – AI vs. Sports Tipsters

While AI has made significant strides in the world of sports prediction, it’s clear that human tipsters are still leading the way.

AI brings impressive data-crunching abilities and can process vast amounts of information in real time, but it lacks the intuition and adaptability that expert tipsters provide.

The future might lie in a hybrid approach, combining the analytical power of AI with the human touch to deliver even better predictions.

For now, though, tipsters remain the go-to choice for consistent, reliable advice in sports betting.

When looking at sports tipsters you need to consider ROI – Return on Investment.

It tells you if following a tipster is worth the effort, risk and money involved. But how do you calculate ROI and what is a good return in the world of sports tipping?

This guide will go into the details of sports tipster ROI and give you tips on how to calculate it and avoid the mistakes.

In sports betting ROI means “Return on Investment” and it measures how much profit you’ve made against how much you’ve staked.

It’s a key indicator of tipster performance and one of the most important metrics for anyone serious about long term betting success.

Definition of ROI in sports betting

At its simplest sports tipster ROI is the percentage return you get from your total stakes over time.

It allows you to compare tipsters by showing the profit (or loss) you can expect to make for every pound staked.

For example a 10% ROI means for every £100 staked you’d have made £10 in profit.

Why ROI is important

ROI is important because it goes beyond win-loss records.

A tipster might have a high win rate but be unprofitable if their tips are on short priced favourites with little value.

A tipster with a lower win rate could have a higher ROI by tipping at higher odds and making long term profitability more achievable.

How ROI differs from simple win-loss records

Win-loss records (also known as “win rate” or “strike rate”) tell you how often a tipster gets it right but don’t show the overall profitability of their tips.

ROI shows you the full picture of tipster performance. It’s about the betting returns not just the number of correct tips.

It’s all about quality not quantity.

ROI and long-term betting success

Over time a positive ROI is a sign of profitable sports tipping.

Inconsistent or negative ROI means a tipster may not have an edge over the market and sticking with them will erode your betting bankroll.

Ultimately, consistent ROI over a large sample size is the foundation of any long-term betting strategy.

How to calculate Sports Tipster ROI: A Step by Step Guide

Now you know what ROI is, let’s get into how to calculate it.

The formula is pretty simple:

ROI (%) = (Total Profit / Total Stakes) x 100

For example if you’ve made a total profit of £500 from total stakes of £5,000 your ROI would be:

£500 / £5,000 x 100 = 10%

Stake sizes and odds

When calculating ROI you need to factor in stake sizes and odds.

Some tipsters recommend level stakes, others recommend different staking strategies based on confidence levels.

This is why ROI is a useful metric – it tells you the return taking all stakes into account, whether the tipster bets at level stakes, variable staking or otherwise. 

What is a Good ROI in Sports Tipping?

What is a good ROI?

The answer depends on the sport, bet type and win rate.

So really ROI needs to be seen in context of the sport and win rate – and other metrics, as we will discuss below – rather than in isolation. 

Considering ROI Alongside Other Metrics

While ROI is an important metric in evaluating a tipster’s performance, it should never be considered in isolation.

To get a true picture of how successful a tipster is, you need to look at several other key metrics that work together to give a complete overview of their performance.

1. Win Rate: The win rate is crucial to understanding the context of ROI. As discussed above, a high ROI with a low win rate might suggest the tipster is targeting long odds, which can lead to bigger wins but fewer of them. Conversely, a tipster with a high win rate but low ROI may be betting on favorites with shorter odds. The relationship between ROI and win rate is usually inversely proportional – the higher one is, the lower the other will be. 
2. Overall Profit/Loss: ROI tells you how efficient a tipster is in making returns relative to stakes, but the overall profit and loss (P/L) shows the total financial impact of their tips. A tipster with a high ROI but a small profit may not be as valuable as one with a lower ROI but a much higher overall profit due to a higher win rate and higher volume of bets.
3. Bet Volume: The number of bets a tipster places is critical to understanding their ROI. A tipster with a high ROI but a low bet volume might not offer enough opportunities to generate consistent profits. On the other hand, a tipster with a high volume but lower ROI can still produce significant profits over time because they place many more bets and can therefore grow the bank.
4. Bank Growth (Return on Capital): Another important measure is how much a tipster grows their betting bank over time, which is effectively their return on capital. This shows how well a tipster compounds profits and manages their bankroll. A tipster with steady bank growth is likely to be using a sustainable staking plan that balances risk and reward.
5. Consistency: The percentage of winning months a tipster has is an important indicator of consistency. A tipster with a high ROI but only a few profitable months may provide a more erratic betting experience. In contrast, a tipster with a solid percentage of winning months (e.g., 60-70%) is more likely to offer steady, reliable profits. Consistency is key in helping you ride out the inevitable downswings and maintain confidence in the tipster’s long-term success.
6. Closing Line Value (CLV): CLV is a measure of how often the odds a tipster bets at are better than the final odds (closing line). If a tipster consistently beats the closing line, it suggests they have a genuine edge over the market. ROI might fluctuate over time, but consistent CLV indicates that the tipster is making good value bets that should, over time, lead to long-term profitability.

Each of these metrics interacts with ROI to provide a more rounded assessment of a tipster’s performance.

For example, a tipster with a moderate ROI but strong CLV and steady bank growth is likely to be more reliable than one with a higher ROI but poor CLV and erratic bank growth.

Understanding how these factors work together is key to evaluating the long-term value of following a particular tipster.

That’s why our reviews consider all these factors together holistically in determining a tipster’s rating rather than viewing a factor such as ROI in isolation.   

A high ROI in itself – whilst obviously being a good thing – is not necessarily proof of a top tipster.

If it’s accompanied by good all-around metrics like strong bank growth, consistent profits, and a solid win rate, it becomes a much stronger indicator of a top quality tipster. 

Example of Tipsters with Good All-Around Metrics

Let’s take a look at a couple of examples of tipsters with good all-around metrics. 

Example 1: Horse Racing Tipster with 31% ROI

First up is Hanbury Racing, a horse racing tipster with a very good long-term ROI of 31%. 

As we say though, this needs to be considered in context of the other metrics. Do those stack up or does the service just have a good ROI? 

Well, the ROI has been accompanied by a solid win rate of 22% and excellent long-term profit of over 1,500 points made. 

Bet volume is sound with around 2-3 bets per day on average, meaning the bank can keep ticking along.

Bank growth has been stellar at over 700% since the service started.

Hanbury Racing targets longshots so the consistency can be a little up and down, with for example slightly less than half of the months in 2024 being profitable ones. 

However, taken as a whole these represent first class metrics and the ROI stacks up very well when taken in context with the other stats. 

Example 2: Football Tipster with 10% ROI

Another example is a football tipster called Scottish Confidential with a lower ROI of 10%. How does that stack up against its other metrics though?

Interestingly the lower ROI is correlated with a much higher win rate, of 43%. 

That means it is backing at much lower odds than Hanbury Racing for example but is still able to find value. 

The overall profits are strong too at just over 200 points made. 

The bet volume is reasonable with around 15 bets per week. 

Bank growth hasn’t been quite as impressive as Hanbury Racing but is still formidable at over 400%.

Consistency is good too, with a high proportion of winnings months, although they did struggle a little back in 2021. 

Taken as a whole though these are strong stats and it illustrates the point about a high win rate usually correlating with a lower ROI – but that taken together this can still mean very good overall profit.

Example 3: Horse Racing Tipster with 8% ROI

Thirdly we have a horse racing tipster called Racing Rundown with an 8% ROI.

That has been accompanied by a win rate of 24%, which is solid enough but somewhat below the rate achieved by Scottish Confidential for example. 

The overall profits have been good, with 293 points made to date. 

Bet volume is sound at around 2 bets per day on average. 

Consistency is reasonable but they have been a little up and down, with around 60% winning months so far. 

The overall bank growth is slightly over 100% so far. 

Overall these are good stats, but you can see that despite having a pretty similar ROI to Scottish Confidential, when taken in context of the overall metrics it doesn’t quite measure up to the football service. 

This illustrates the importance of considering ROI in the overall context of performance metrics rather than just in isolation.  

ROI by Bet Type

Not all bets are created equal – and neither is their ROI.

The type of bet a tipster recommends can have a big impact on their ROI.

So it’s worth understanding how these bets work.

For example singles are the bread and butter of most professional tipsters.

They’re simple: you back a single outcome and your ROI is a direct reflection of the value in those bets. If a tipster consistently finds value, the ROI can increase over time

On the other hand accumulators (or parlays) are riskier.

These are bets where multiple selections are combined into one bet.

Yes the payouts can be much higher but they come with a catch – all your selections have to win.

A tipster who uses accumulators might have a lower win rate but a high ROI because of the bigger odds. But this can also lead to more volatility in their results.

Then there are value bets where tipsters identify odds they think are mispriced by the bookies.

These bets are often low margin, meaning the ROI will be low but value bettors look to turn over a large number of bets to generate their profits. 

In the end understanding how different bet types impact ROI can help you choose a tipster that fits your betting style.

Whether you like a steady low risk approach or a more adventurous one with bigger payoffs the type of bet has a big impact on ROI.

Variance and ROI

One thing that gets overlooked in sports betting is variance – and boy does it matter!

Variance is the natural ups and downs you get when betting and it can kill your ROI in the short term.

Let’s say you’re following a tipster who focuses on longshots. They might have a lower win rate because the odds they’re targeting are much higher – but that doesn’t mean they’re not good at what they do.

You could go through a long losing streak and see your ROI drop and then a few big wins turn it all around.

On the other hand a tipster backing short priced favourites might have more frequent wins but those small profits can be wiped out by a few losses.

That’s why understanding variance is key. It helps you stay calm during the rough patches and not get carried away with a short term spike in ROI.

In short variance is part of the game and patience is key when evaluating a tipster’s long term performance.

Chasing High ROI

We’ve all heard the phrase “if it sounds too good to be true it probably is.”

The same applies to sports betting ROI. A tipster claiming 50%, 70% or more ROI may grab your attention but be careful – there’s usually a catch.

Tipsters claiming astronomical ROIs can sometimes manipulate the numbers, cherry pick their best results or omit losing bets from their record. In short, they may be scam tipsters.

While it’s possible to get a high ROI in the short term (thanks to variance) it’s incredibly difficult to sustain it over a large number of bets.

So what’s the risk of chasing these numbers? The danger is unrealistic expectations.

If you’re tempted by the big returns you might end up staking more than you can afford, taking unnecessary risks or jumping from one service to another in search of those big gains.

Remember consistency is key. A tipster with a smaller but steady ROI is a much safer bet in the long run than one making outlandish claims.

Betting Bank Management and ROI

Your betting bank – or bankroll – is the lifeblood of your betting journey.

Managing it properly is key to staying in the game and that’s where ROI comes in.

ROI gives you an idea of how much profit you can expect from each bet in relation to your stakes but how you manage your bank can increase or decrease those returns.

The best tipsters often recommend a staking plan that matches their ROI.

For example if a tipster has a lower ROI but higher win rate they might recommend staking a bigger portion of your bank to take advantage of more frequent wins.

But don’t get too carried away. Over staking – especially when chasing high ROI – can quickly drain your bank during a losing streak.

That’s why many experienced bettors use methods like the Kelly Criterion which calculates the optimal stake based on the edge and bankroll size.

This way you’re taking value without putting your whole bank at risk.

In short managing your bankroll in line with the ROI and betting strategy is key to long-term success.

Sample size in ROI calculations

A larger sample size gives a more accurate picture of a tipster’s performance.

A small sample can distort the results especially if the tipster gets lucky early on.

In our reviews we always aim to track at least 100 tips before making any conclusions about a tipster’s ROI.

Really though to get a statistically significant view of a tipster’s ROI you would need hundreds of bets, preferably over 1,000. 

Conclusion – Sports Tipster ROI 

So what have we learned about sports tipster ROI? Here are the key points:

• ROI is important but it’s just one piece of the puzzle. Look at it alongside other metrics like win rate, profit/loss, bet volume and bank growth to get a full picture of a tipster’s performance.
• Bet type matters. Singles, accumulators and value bets all impact ROI differently so understanding what a tipster specialises in can help you manage your expectations.
• Variance plays a big part in short term ROI fluctuations. Be patient and don’t let short term results – good or bad – affect your long-term outlook.
• Don’t chase high ROI. If a tipster is promising big returns take a step back and look at their long-term record.
• Manage your bank wisely. Use a staking plan that matches the tipster’s strategy and your own risk tolerance to protect your bankroll over the long term.

Now you’re ready to follow tipsters who deliver not just big numbers but real long-term value.

Long-term profitability is the goal and understanding ROI is the first step.

Hopefully this article has given you a good overview of how ROI works and how to utilise it in your betting. 

Please remember to always gamble responsibly and good luck with your betting! 

When it comes to sports betting we all want that edge to win more. One strategy that’s gaining popularity is the 3 odds betting strategy.

In this guide we’ll cover everything you need to know about this strategy and how you can use it to win more.

Plus we’ll share tips from expert tipsters to help you fine tune your sports betting.

Let’s get started!

What is the 3 Odds Strategy?

We previously had a look at the 2 odds betting strategy, so now let’s have a look at the 3 odds betting strategy. 

The 3 odds strategy is all about betting on outcomes with odds around 3.00 (decimal) which is 2/1 in fractional.

The logic behind this is simple: at these odds you’re betting on events that have around a 33% chance of happening.

These odds may seem like a coin flip but the risk and reward can be managed with the right approach.

How the Strategy Works

The 3 odds betting strategy is effective because you can win a decent amount without having to win every bet.

At 3.00 odds, even winning just slightly more than one out of three bets can be profitable if you manage your bankroll correctly.

Key principles:

• Betting on value: You want to find odds where the actual probability is higher than what the bookies offer.
• Research and analysis: Make sure you properly research each bet and don’t just bet on a whim or “gut instinct.”
• Discipline: This strategy requires patience and sticking to your plan even when losing.

How the 3 Odds Strategy is Different to Other Strategies

Unlike strategies that focus on low risk favourites or highly speculative accumulators, the 3 odds strategy is a balance of risk and reward.

It doesn’t require big stakes like arbitrage betting or backing short-priced favourites.

The Maths of 3 Odds Betting

The 3 odds betting strategy is ultimately about maths. Understanding probability and expected value is key to this strategy.

Probability and How It Applies

At 3.00 odds the implied probability is around 33.33%.

So you’re essentially betting on events that have a 1 in 3 chance of happening.

The key is to find when the actual probability of the outcome is higher than the implied probability – that’s where the value is.

Calculating Expected Value in 3 Odds Bets

Expected value (EV) is the foundation of any betting strategy.

In 3 odds betting the EV is based on working out if the real chances of an event happening are higher than the odds imply.

For example:

• If you think a team has 40% chance of winning (higher than the 33.33% implied) then your bet has a positive EV.
• Remember, to work out the implied chances of an event happening based on the odds, divide 100 by the decimal odds. So decimal odds of 2.0 imply a 50% chance (100 divided by 2.0), decimal odds of 10 imply a 10% chance (100 divided by 10) and so on.  

Ultimately if the odds are 3.0 but chances of winning are above 33.33% then the bet can be worth taking. That is the essence of the 3 odds betting strategy. 

The 3 Odds Betting Strategy

Okay let’s get on to looking at some approaches you can take to the 3 odds betting strategy. 

Here are three possible strategies you can follow:

1. Backing Second Favourites in Horse Racing

One way to use the 3 odds betting strategy is to focus on 2nd favourites in horse racing.

Casual punters tend to overlook 2nd favourites and go for either the favourite or long shots.

But 2nd favourites can be great value if certain conditions are met.

The odds for 2nd favourites are usually around 3.00 so they are perfect for this strategy.

Here’s how you can narrow down to under the radar 2nd favourites that have a good chance of winning:

Finding the Right Horses to Back

When backing 2nd favourites, you need to look beyond the odds and into the details of each horse.

Second favourites can be priced attractively when they are not getting as much attention as the favourite but still have a good chance of winning.

Here are a few examples of when this might be the case:

• Coming Back After a Long Break: Horses coming back from a long layoff are often underestimated by bookies and punters alike. But if a horse has a history of performing well fresh (after a break) or its trainer is known for getting horses ready after a layoff, this could be a good opportunity. Punters may undervalue the horse because it hasn’t raced in a while so the odds can often be around 3.00.
• Racing at a Favourite Track: Some horses are better at certain tracks, often because of the layout or surface of the track. These ‘course specialists’ are often overlooked in the betting markets especially if they haven’t raced there for a while. A 2nd favourite back at its favourite track where it has a winning record can be great value at 3.00.
• Top Jockey Booked: When a top jockey is booked for a horse from a smaller or less fashionable yard, this can be a strong sign the horse is fancied to win. Trainers often book high profile jockeys when they think they have a real chance, especially if it’s unusual for that jockey to ride for the yard. If this happens with a 2nd favourite, it can be a hidden edge the market hasn’t priced in.
• Favourable Ground Conditions: Some horses are better on certain types of ground, whether it’s soft, heavy or firm. When a horse that thrives in certain ground conditions runs in those conditions but is 2nd favourite, it can be great value. Ground conditions are often overlooked by casual punters so you can capitalise on a situation where the horse’s performance could exceed expectations.

Example: 2nd favourite at 3.00

Imagine a horse, let’s call it “Silver Breeze”, is 2nd favourite at 3.00.

Silver Breeze is coming back from a 4 month break but has a history of performing well fresh having won in similar circumstances before.

The race is at Silver Breeze’s favourite track where it has won twice in three starts.

A top jockey who rarely rides for the yard has been booked, a good sign the trainer thinks the horse is ready to go.

Despite all these positives the favourite is a more popular horse and getting all the betting money.

Silver Breeze is under the radar at 3.00 so is a well informed bet.

Why This Works

The beauty of backing 2nd favourites in these circumstances is you’re finding value where others aren’t.

The odds on 2nd favourites are often higher than their actual chance of winning because bookies and casual punters are focusing on the favourite.

By targeting horses with specific advantages like a long break, favourite track, top jockey booking or suitable ground you can find 3 odds bets.

This way you can take advantage of the overlooked or undervalued factors and win more while being disciplined and mathematical.

2. Backing the Underdog in Tennis

Another way to use the 3 odds betting strategy is to focus on underdogs in tennis.

Tennis is a sport where individual performances can change on a whim due to conditions, form or head to head.

These dynamics can create situations where the market undervalues certain players when their odds are around 3.00.

Backing underdogs at these odds means you can find value where the player is more likely to win than the market thinks.

Here’s how you can refine this approach to win more:

Finding Underdogs with Value

In tennis an underdog might be 3.00 because they are up against a higher ranked player.

But rankings don’t always tell the full story. To find value in backing underdogs you need to go deeper into the stats and look at specific factors that give the lower ranked player an edge:

• Head-to-Head Records: Tennis players have psychological advantages or stylistic matchups that favour them over certain opponents regardless of their overall ranking. For example a lower ranked player may have beaten a higher ranked opponent in previous encounters especially if their playing style disrupts the favourite’s game. If the head to head record shows the underdog has a good chance of winning this can be a great value bet at 3.00.
• Playing Surface: Tennis is a sport where surface plays a huge role in determining outcomes. Some players excel on certain surfaces whether it’s clay, grass or hard courts. If an underdog is playing on their preferred surface they may have a better chance than their odds suggest. For example a player known for their clay court prowess might be undervalued when facing a higher ranked opponent who performs better on hard courts. Identifying these surface specialists can lead to profitable opportunities.
• Player Form and Fitness: Tennis seasons are long and players’ form can fluctuate dramatically. A higher ranked player might be out of form or injured and the underdog can cause an upset. Conversely the underdog might be in form and have won a few matches or tournaments recently. By following player form you can identify when the market is undervaluing an underdog’s chances.
• External Factors: Conditions such as weather, location and even crowd support can have a big impact on a tennis match. For example an underdog playing in their home country might get a boost from the crowd while extreme weather conditions (strong winds or extreme heat) might favour the underdog’s style of play. These external factors are often overlooked by casual punters creating value opportunities for those who pay attention.

Example: Underdog at 3.00

Imagine an underdog such as Elina Svitolina is 3.00 against a higher ranked opponent like Coco Gauff.

Gauff has the better ranking and has been playing well on hard courts but this match is on clay and Svitolina is a better player on the red dirt.

In their two previous encounters on clay Svitolina won both times despite being lower ranked.

At 3.00 Svitolina is a great value bet especially with her head to head record and clay court prowess.

And she is in form having reached the quarters of a recent clay tournament while Gauff has been on a long hard court season and is showing signs of fatigue.

So Svitolina is an underdog with a good chance of causing an upset.

Why This Works

Backing underdogs in tennis at 3.00 can be very profitable because the tennis betting market overvalues higher ranked players.

This is particular the case in regular events played over 3 sets rather than grand slam events played over 5 sets (in men’s tennis at least).

Upsets regularly occur over 3 sets and pro tennis bettors often look for value in underdogs rather than favourites. 

By focusing on underdogs with specific edges – head to head records, surface specialists or in form – you can find value bets that others miss.

Tennis is a sport where match dynamics can change quickly so it’s a great place to apply the 3 odds betting strategy.

With the right analysis and discipline on your bankroll backing underdogs can be very profitable over time.

3. Backing Top Scorers to Score Anytime in Football

Another way to use the 3 odds strategy is to back top scorers to score anytime in football.

Here you’re looking at prolific goal scorers who are key players for their team and have a good chance to score in a match.

Top scorer odds can be around 3.00 in matches where the opposing defence is strong or the striker is coming off a goal drought.

Here’s how to do it:

Why Top Scorers Provide Value

Top scorers are the focal point of their team’s attack, so they’re most likely to get goal scoring opportunities.

Betting on them to score anytime at 3.00 odds can be value when specific factors work to their advantage:

• Favourable Opponent: Some strikers perform well against certain teams, either because of the opponent’s weak defence or because the team’s style of play gives them more opportunities in front of goal. For example a striker who thrives against lower table teams with leaky defences is more likely to score, so the value of a bet on them to score increases.
• Penalty Takers and Set Pieces: Players who take penalties or free-kicks increase their chances of scoring. If a team has a regular penalty taker who is also the top scorer, betting on them to score anytime is a strong play at 3.00 odds, especially in physical games where penalties might be awarded.
• Player Form: A striker in form and scoring consistently is often overpriced in the markets. But if their odds are still 3.00 despite their form, that’s value. Conversely a top scorer going through a short goal drought might have slightly inflated odds but still has the talent and opportunity to score in any given match.
• Team’s Playing Style: If a team is an attacking team with the top scorer at the centre of their attacks, there’s a higher chance of that player scoring. Teams that create chances increase the probability of their main striker scoring, especially if they’re the target for crosses, through balls or set pieces.

Example Scenario: 3.00 Odds Value

Bukayo Saka is the top scorer for Arsenal and is 3.00 to score anytime in a big match against a top-six team.

The Gunners’ normal penalty taker is injured and you suspect Saka will be on penalties today in their stead. Saka has scored 4 of his last 5 penalties.

Whilst the opposing defence is generally fairly strong, they struggle against pacey strikers like Saka and their centre backs have conceded a number of penalties this season. So backing Saka at 3.00 is value.

Despite being a quality striker, the market has slightly inflated Saka’s odds because of the big match and because the England man has not scored for five games.

However, he has been playing well in those games and has had a good number of shots on target – they just haven’t been going in due to a mixture of bad luck and goalkeeper heroics. 

But given his form, penalty taking and the style of play favouring him, backing him to score anytime at 3.00 is a calculated risk with good potential reward.

Why This Works

Backing top scorers to score anytime is a 3 odds betting strategy because you’re betting on the most likely player to score, but often the odds reflect an underestimation of that likelihood due to external factors like team form, recent results or the quality of the opponent.

By looking at the player’s form, opponent weaknesses and key roles like set pieces you can find value in these markets.

This strategy combines statistical analysis with situational awareness, giving you an edge over casual bettors who may only consider overall team form or favouritism when placing their bets.

Risk Management and Bankroll in the 3 Odds Betting Strategy

One of the key elements of this strategy is bankroll management.

At 3.00 odds losing streaks can happen so you need to have a solid bankroll management plan in place.

A general rule of thumb is to never stake more than 1-2% of your total bankroll on any one bet.

This way you can weather a losing streak without blowing your whole bankroll.

Common Mistakes with the 3 Odds Betting Strategy and How to Avoid Them

No strategy is without risk. Here are the common mistakes of the 3 odds strategy and how to avoid them.

Emotional Betting and the 3 Odds Strategy

It’s easy to get emotional when betting especially during a bad run. But the key to long term success is to stick to your strategy and not place bets on a whim and without solid research behind them. 

Overreliance on Favourites or Underdogs

Betting on favourites might seem like a safe bet but don’t overdo it. Same with always betting on underdogs.

The 3 odds strategy is about balance and finding value not just backing favourites or outsiders.

Chasing Losses on 3.0 Bets

Chasing losses on 3.0 bets is a common pitfall, as the temptation to recover quickly after a few losses can lead to reckless betting and poor decision-making—it’s crucial to maintain discipline and stick to your strategy, rather than letting emotions drive your bets.

Not Adapting to Market Changes

The sports betting landscape is always changing. Whether it’s a change in odds, team performance or market trends you need to be adaptable and adjust your strategy accordingly.

Conclusion

The 3 odds strategy is an under-the-radar approach to attacking the betting markets. 

Most punters like to focus on either favourites or long-shots, but good value can often be found at around the 3.0 odds mark. 

It has the added benefit of having a good risk-reward ratio: a decent win rate of around 33%, whilst also having the potential to produce solid returns, unlike backing odds-on shots for example.  

By understanding the maths behind it, having a solid plan and conducting thorough research before placing your bets, you can maximise your chances of winning 3.0 bets.

Remember patience and discipline is key to this strategy working for you.

Happy betting!