If you’ve spent any time in the world of sports betting, you’ve probably heard the term “CLV” or Closing Line Value.
It might sound like technical jargon, but understanding it could be the key to unlocking your long-term betting success.
In this article, we’ll break down what CLV is, why it’s important, and how it can be used to evaluate tipster performance.
Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just getting started, understanding CLV will help you make smarter bets.
What is CLV (Closing Line Value)?
CLV, or Closing Line Value, refers to the difference between the odds at which you place a bet and the closing odds of that same bet right before the event starts.
In simpler terms, it’s a way to measure whether you got good value for your bet compared to what the odds settled at just before the event began.
Here’s how it works:
The closing line is the final set of odds offered by the bookmaker (or exchange) before the event begins. It’s widely considered to be the most accurate reflection of an event’s true probabilities because it factors in all available information up until the moment the game starts.
The value in CLV comes from comparing the odds you placed your bet at versus the final closing odds. If you placed a bet at better odds than the closing line, you achieved positive CLV, meaning you’ve potentially found value in the market. Conversely, if the closing odds are better than the odds you got, you’ve achieved negative CLV.
Why is CLV Important?
CLV is an important concept for both casual and serious bettors because it helps you measure one of the most fundamental aspects of betting success: whether you’re consistently getting good value for your bets.
It is increasingly used – in conjunction with other metrics – in measuring betting performance.
Here are a few reasons why CLV matters:
1. It’s an Indicator of Sharp Betting
When you consistently beat the closing line and secure better odds than the closing odds, it indicates that you’re making informed and timely decisions.
Since the closing line is widely considered to be the most efficient, beating it means you’ve identified value before the market corrected itself. In essence, you’re one step ahead of the bookmaker.
2. Long-term Profitability
Sports betting is not just about short-term wins or losses. Even the best bettors experience losing streaks.
However, over time, consistently achieving positive CLV is a good indicator that you’re making profitable bets.
If you’re getting better odds than the closing line more often than not, you’re more likely to make a profit in the long run.
3. An Early Warning System
Achieving negative CLV can serve as an early warning sign.
If you’re consistently placing bets that close at worse odds than what you initially bet, it may indicate that you’re either misreading the market or placing your bets too early or too late.
By tracking your CLV, you can adjust your betting strategy accordingly and improve your results over time.
Calculating CLV is straightforward. Let’s break it down with an example:
Suppose you bet on an NFL game, backing the Dallas Cowboys at odds of 2.00 (+100).
By the time the game starts, the odds on the Dallas Cowboys have dropped to 1.80 (-125).
In this case, you’ve achieved positive CLV because you placed your bet at odds of 2.00, which is better than the final closing odds of 1.80.
Essentially, the market has moved in your favor, indicating that you likely got good value for your bet.
To calculate CLV in percentage terms, you can use this formula:
CLV = (Closing Odds / Initial Odds) – 1
So, in the above example, the CLV would be:
CLV = (1.80 / 2.00) – 1 = -0.10 or -10%
This result indicates that your bet was placed at a 10% better value than the closing odds.
A negative CLV would imply the opposite — that you got a worse deal.
Real-Life Example of CLV in Action
Imagine you’re betting on an NBA game between the Lakers and the Clippers. Early in the week, you notice that the Lakers are priced at 1.90 (-110).
Based on your research, you believe this is a good price, so you place your bet.
As the week progresses, news breaks that a key player on the Clippers is injured, and the odds on the Lakers shorten to 1.70 (-143).
If you bet at 1.90 and the odds close at 1.70, you’ve achieved positive CLV.
You spotted the value early, and the market corrected as more information became available.
Even if the Lakers end up losing the game, over time, consistently making bets with positive CLV like this will give you an edge.
The Value of CLV in Measuring Tipster Performance
For bettors who follow tipsters (experts who provide betting advice), CLV is a helpful tool to measure the performance of these tipsters beyond simple wins and losses.
In general terms, CLV provides a way to evaluate whether they’re consistently spotting value, regardless of short-term outcomes.
A tipster who regularly beats the closing line is likely to be more accurate in the long run, even if they have a few losing bets in the short term.
Tipsters may go through hot or cold streaks, but just because they’re winning or losing in the short term doesn’t mean they’re giving good advice.
Betting is a game of probabilities, and even well-placed bets sometimes lose due to random outcomes.
By focusing on CLV, you’re able to assess a tipster’s ability to identify value, not just whether their individual bets won or lost.
However, CLV should not be viewed as the ultimate arbiter of a tipster’s performance.
Over the years we have seen many tipsters still produce a good profit, without necessarily beating the CLV by very much.
Some may even slightly under-perform the CLV but still make a profit.
Others actually tip at CLV – those for example who advise bets at Betfair SP (BSP). So they are unable to either over- or under-perform at CLV.
And the flip-side is there are tipsters who achieve a positive CLV but don’t make a profit.
So there is a lot of nuance as to exactly how tipsters go about finding value, when they tip and into what market, which means it’s not as straightforward as correlating CLV directly with profit/loss.
Here are a few examples of where CLV isn’t always a straightforward guide to performance:
Some tipsters tip very early into illiquid markets, knowing that even a small amount of money can move prices. This can create the illusion of CLV when really it is neither genuine value nor realistic for their followers to achieve such prices (and therefore achieve such CLV).
Some tipsters tip late into markets (or even at starting price) on the basis of late information or market trends. Their goal may not be to beat the closing line, but that doesn’t mean they can’t still find value on the specific markets they are targeting.
Some tipsters specifically focus on horses who they deem likely to drift (or are already drifting) as they see value in such picks. Indeed, a study by Betfair of 65,000 horses showed that backing the steamers (those reducing in price by more than 5%) resulted in a loss of almost £3,500 whilst backing those that drifted (increased in price by 5% or more) produced a profit of £2,310. So in some cases it could actually be a good idea to go against CLV.
Overall then CLV is a useful guide as to whether a tipster is ahead of the market in spotting value and in general a positive CLV is usually a sign of a good tipster, but there is no hard and fast rule on this.
There are plenty of exceptions and it’s important to understand the context in which a tipster is aiming to generate value.
Ultimately it’s a good idea to use CLV in combination with other metrics such as P/L, ROI, strike rate etc in judging tipster performance.
Improving your CLV takes a combination of research, timing, and patience. Here are a few strategies to help you consistently beat the closing line:
1. Bet Early
Markets tend to move as more information becomes available, such as injury news or weather conditions. Betting early can help you capitalize on odds before the market adjusts.
2. Shop for Odds
Not all bookmakers offer the same odds, so shopping around for the best price is essential. Use odds comparison tools to ensure you’re getting the best available odds.
3. Stay Informed
Following injury reports, team news, and even public betting trends can give you an edge. The more information you have, the better your chances of identifying value before the odds shift.
Conclusion: CLV as a Key to Betting Success
In summary, Closing Line Value (CLV) is a valuable metric for sports bettors, providing a clear and quantifiable way to measure the value of your bets.
While short-term wins and losses are inevitable, consistently achieving positive CLV is a useful indicator that you’re on the right path to long-term success.
For those following tipsters, tracking CLV offers an effective way to differentiate between genuinely sharp tipsters and those riding a lucky streak, although it should not be seen as a conclusive factor on which to judge a tipster.
There are tipsters who have a positive CLV but still don’t make a profit and vice-versa. Other tipsters tip at CLV so there is no positive or negative CLV in such cases.
There is a great deal of variation and nuance in how bettors go about making profit which may affect whether they achieve CLV – or are even aiming to.
Ultimately CLV can provide a useful guide as to whether a tipster can spot value in the markets and in most cases a positive CLV should be seen as a good sign for a tipster, if they can maintain it over the long run. It should not be seen as the be-all and end-all in betting though.
Like many other metrics, it is important to view it in context and in combination with other metrics in judging a tipster’s performance.
https://www.honestbettingreviews.com/wp-content/uploads/DALL·E-2024-09-09-19.10.49-CLV-pic4.png325568Danhttps://www.honestbettingreviews.com/wp-content/uploads/hbr-logo-new-300x145.pngDan2024-09-09 19:27:312024-09-09 19:53:47What is CLV in Betting and Why Does it Matter?
When it comes to football betting, there’s an abundance of markets and strategies that bettors can use to try to get the upper hand.
One of the increasingly popular betting options is “Away to Win Either Half.”
It’s a market that is more flexible than just betting on an away team to win outright and gives punters a better chance of success, especially in games where the away team might not win overall but could perform well in one half of the match.
In this article, we’ll break down exactly what “Away to Win Either Half” means, when it might be a good strategy to use, and how to approach it to maximize your chances of success.
Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just starting out, this guide will help you understand this betting market more clearly.
What Does “Away to Win Either Half” Mean?
The “Away to Win Either Half” market is pretty straightforward.
Essentially, you are betting that the away team will win either the first or second half of the match.
That doesn’t mean they have to win the match outright—only that they score more goals than the home team in at least one of the two halves.
For example, if Manchester United are playing away at Chelsea and you place a bet on “Away to Win Either Half,” you will win your bet if Manchester United win the first half, the second half, or both.
So for example:
The match is Chelsea v Man Utd at Stamford Bridge (Chelsea’s home ground)
You back the “Away to win either half”
The first half ends 0-0
Man Utd win the match 1-0
Man Utd have won the second half, meaning the bet “away to win either half” wins as they won at least one half of the game, in this case the second half.
Even if the match ends 2-1 in favor of Chelsea, you could still win your bet if Manchester United won one half, such as scoring the only goal in the first half.
For example:
Man Utd won the first half 1-0
Chelsea win the second half 2-0
The final score is 2-1
The bet wins because Man Utd won at least one half of the match (the first half).
The bet is usually expressed by the bookies as “Away to win either half – yes” or “Away to win either half – no.”
These terms are fairly self-explanatory – “Away to win either half – yes” means the away team wins either the first or second half in the match, even if they don’t end up winning the match overall.
And “Away to win either half – no” means the away team has failed to win either half.
Here’s a table summarizing the meaning of the “Away to Win Either Half” bet:
FACTOR
Description
Bet Type
“Away to Win Either Half”
What it Means
You are betting that the away team will win either the first half or the second half of the match. The away team does not need to win the entire match outright.
Winning Scenarios
– Away team scores more goals than the home team in the first half, or – Away team scores more goals than the home team in the second half, or – Both halves
Losing Scenarios
– The home team scores more goals in both halves, or – Both halves end in a draw (same number of goals in each half), or – The home team scores more goals in one half, and the other half ends in a draw
Advantages
– Provides more flexibility than betting on an outright away win – Gives a higher chance of winning, especially in tight or unpredictable games
Key Factors to Consider
– Away team’s recent form, especially away from home – Home team’s weaknesses – Injuries, suspensions, and tactical setup – Historical performance
Typical Use Cases
– When the away team is strong but not likely to win the entire match – Matches with evenly matched teams – Teams that perform better in one half
This type of bet offers more flexibility than a traditional outright win, where the away team would need to win the entire match.
With the “Away to Win Either Half” bet, even if the away team doesn’t manage to pull off a full win, you still have a chance of cashing in.
The odds tend to be lower to win either half than to win the match though, understandably.
For example, a team that is 2.40 to win the match might be around 1.75 to win either half.
There are several reasons why you might consider placing a bet on “Away to Win Either Half.”
Here are a few key advantages:
Better Chances in Tight Matches If you think the away team is good but not necessarily strong enough to win the entire game, this market gives you some breathing room. The away team may not dominate the entire match but could have a solid half, making this a safer bet in close matchups.
Increased Flexibility Betting on an outright away win can be risky, especially if the home team is a strong favorite. With “Away to Win Either Half,” you don’t need to rely on the away team pulling off a complete win; they just need to edge out the home team in one half.
Cashing in on Teams with Strong Halves Some teams tend to perform better in one half than the other. Maybe they start fast and fade out in the second half or come alive after halftime. Understanding team patterns can help you spot good opportunities for this type of bet.
Upset Potential While a team may not be strong enough to win away from home overall, upsets happen in individual halves all the time. The away team could surprise the favorites by snagging a half win, especially if they’re focused on defense but can counterattack effectively.
Finding Teams to Back on “Away to Win Either Half”
In finding teams to potentially back in the away to win either half market, it is worth having a look at the stats of teams who have shown a penchant for winning at least one half in matches.
Using a site like Soccerstats (by clicking on the “half” tab under a particular league) you can check out the records of teams over a season showing how many times they have won either the first or second half.
Here for example are the stats for the 2023/24 season in the Premier League, firstly looking at the first half away records:
Here we can see that Arsenal performed well in first halves away, winning 9 out of 19 across the season.
Chelsea meanwhile would have been a team to avoid, only winning 5 first halves away over the season.
We can also have a look at the performances of teams in second halves away:
Here we can see that Man City won a lot of second halves over the season, winning 13 out of 19.
Liverpool and Arsenal were also strong in the second halves of matches, winning 11 out of 19.
Tottenham also performed quite well in second halves, winning 9 over the season.
Putting the first and second half stats together then we can get a picture of which teams had a good record of winning at least one half in a match and could be good value to back.
Key Factors to Consider When Betting “Away to Win Either Half”
Like any betting market, there are several important factors to consider when placing a bet on “Away to Win Either Half.”
Here are some key elements you’ll want to think about before placing your wager:
1. Away Team’s Strength
Before placing a bet, it’s important to assess the overall strength of the away team.
How do they perform when they’re playing on the road? Some teams struggle away from home, while others perform well under pressure.
Look at their recent away form—do they tend to score goals and put pressure on their opponents, even when they don’t win the full match?
2. Home Team’s Weaknesses
Consider the home team’s weaknesses, particularly in either half of matches.
Some teams tend to start matches sluggishly, only gaining momentum after halftime, while others might fade out as the match progresses.
Identifying when the home team is vulnerable can be a great way to time your bet.
3. Historical Head-to-Head Stats
Look at previous matches between the two teams, especially if they’ve met recently.
Did the away team manage to win a half in those games? What was the general flow of the match?
Understanding past results between the two sides can give you insight into how likely the away team is to win a half.
4. Injuries and Suspensions
As with any betting market, keeping an eye on team news is essential.
Injuries and suspensions can significantly impact the flow of a match and the likelihood of a team performing well for an entire half.
If the home team’s star player is sidelined or their defense is weakened, the away team might capitalize, even if they don’t win the whole match.
5. Match Context and Motivation
Consider what’s at stake in the match. Is the away team fighting for a top spot, trying to avoid relegation, or playing in a cup match?
Sometimes teams are more motivated for specific games, especially when playing away from home, where they might be perceived as underdogs.
Conversely, the home team could be complacent, offering the away team an opportunity to win a half.
6. Tactical Approach
The tactics of both teams play a massive role in how halves unfold.
Some away teams set up defensively for the first half and go all out for a win in the second half.
Alternatively, they might go for a quick lead and then hold out defensively in the second half.
Understanding each team’s approach can give you a better sense of which half they’re more likely to win.
Example Scenarios Where “Away to Win Either Half” Might Be a Good Bet
To help put things into perspective, let’s go over a couple of hypothetical scenarios where “Away to Win Either Half” might be a solid bet:
Scenario 1: A Strong Away Team vs. a Mid-Table Home Team
Let’s say Liverpool is playing away against Crystal Palace.
Liverpool might not be as dominant away from home as they are at Anfield, but they’re still a strong side with plenty of attacking options.
Even if Palace is difficult to beat at home, Liverpool could still win one half with their attacking firepower, especially if Palace is vulnerable to early goals.
Scenario 2: A Defensive Away Team Facing a Weaker Opponent
In another example, let’s consider Wolverhampton Wanderers playing away at Luton Town.
Wolves might not win the entire match, but they’ve got a solid defense and could hold out for a low-scoring affair.
They might manage to score in one half while keeping Luton scoreless in the same period. Betting on Wolves to win either half would offer you some cover, even if the match ends in a draw or a narrow loss.
Conclusion: Is “Away to Win Either Half” Worth It?
The “Away to Win Either Half” market is an excellent option for bettors who want more flexibility than a traditional away win bet but still believe the away team has what it takes to dominate at least part of the match.
It’s a market that provides value in tight games, especially when betting on teams that have the ability to score goals or defend well, even if they struggle to put in a full 90-minute performance.
While it’s not foolproof, with the right research into team form, tactical setups, and match context, betting on “Away to Win Either Half” can be a profitable strategy in the long run.
As with all betting markets, the key to success lies in doing your homework and understanding the dynamics of the teams involved.
https://www.honestbettingreviews.com/wp-content/uploads/football-players-celebrating.png395750Danhttps://www.honestbettingreviews.com/wp-content/uploads/hbr-logo-new-300x145.pngDan2024-09-07 13:12:362024-09-10 17:19:42Away To Win Either Half – Explained
Betting strategies are a staple of the gambling industry. For as long as people have been betting, they’ve been thinking about the best way to do so.
For those who don’t know, betting strategies are systems created by gamblers to control how much money they place while playing a certain casino game.
Originally, betting systems were created by roulette players, in an attempt to bring strategy to the game.
However, today, they are used by professionals and amateurs in pretty much any gambling game, from slots to poker. A lot of people even use betting systems at online casinos. So, let us find out how they work.
What are Progressive Betting Systems?
Progressive betting systems are the most popular category when it comes to these kinds of strategies.
As the name suggests, the idea is to increase your bet progressively with each wager. Of course, most systems include a limit, otherwise they would do more harm than good.
Whether you are gambling online or in land-based casinos, progressive betting systems are ones that you are most likely to come across. Players at christchurchcasino.com can use these strategies when playing some of the top notch table games or popular slots.
Even within the world of progressive betting, there are multiple systems that gamblers can take advantage of. In this article, we are taking a look at the three most popular progressive strategies that gamblers often use.
Martingale
At the top of the list is Martingale, a simple strategy that requires the customer to double their bet with each loss. The idea behind the Martingale is relatively simple; when you lose, you double up, so in the case of an eventual win, you can earn your money back.
The risk here is self-evident. To put it plainly, a win might not come. That is why we would never recommend this system. At some point you could hit either the limit of your bankroll or the casino’s maximum bet.
In either scenario it has the potential to be ruinous as you would not be able to place the next bet in the sequence and suffer crushing losses, just for the sake of trying to make a very small profit.
Never expect that you are “due for a win.” In truth, there is no such thing, as each game is random. The Martingale system is to be avoided at all costs.
D’Alembert
The biggest competitor for Martingale is the D’Alembert system. It is a negative progression system that requires you to raise your bet by one unit after a loss, and lower it by one unit after a game.
Unlike the Martingale, the D’Alembert’s system’s goal is to balance wins and losses, rather than attempt to overcome them.
Though the risk reduction is far greater in D’Alembert, it does have some downsides as well.
For example, the gains are quite limited, and a player could still fall prone to a losing streak, and thus spend a lot of money. Not as much as in the Martingale, but players who use that one at least are aware of the high-risk, high-reward nature of it.
Fibonacci
Finally, we have to look at the Fibonacci system. Inspired by the mathematical sequence of the same name, Fibonacci follows the sequence’s pattern when it comes to betting.
So, a player’s betting streak when using Fibonacci would look something like this: $1, $1, $2, $3, $5, $8, $13, $21, $34, $55…
The Fibonacci is characterized by low risks in the early game, and a pretty great recovery potential.
However, slow profits and the same risks as the Martingale system make it quite risky for newbies as well. If you are going to use Fibonacci staking, it is advisable to stick to a maximum number in the sequence, and if it loses, to accept the loss and start at the beginning again.
For example if you get to $55 in the sequence and the bet loses, to accept the losses and go back to the beginning and start with a $1 stake.
Otherwise you will face the same issues as the Martingale system of busting your bank or hitting the casino’s maximum bet.
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The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) has taken the combat sports world by storm, and with its rapid rise, the demand for accurate fight predictions has skyrocketed.
Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just getting into the world of MMA, finding reliable UFC tipsters can be the difference between a big payday and a frustrating loss.
But with so many options out there, how do you know who to trust?
This guide will walk you through the best UFC prediction services and tipsters to help you make informed bets.
Why Trust UFC Tipsters?
Let’s be honest—betting on UFC fights is no walk in the park. Unlike team sports, where trends and statistics are more predictable, MMA is a wild card.
A fight can end in the blink of an eye with a perfectly timed punch or a slick submission. That unpredictability makes finding reliable UFC predictions even more critical.
The best UFC tipsters do more than just pick favorites.
They analyze fighters’ strengths and weaknesses, consider recent performances, and dig deep into fight camp preparations.
By relying on experts who live and breathe MMA, you can gain an edge over the average bettor.
What Makes a Great UFC Tipster?
Before diving into our top picks, it’s essential to know what sets the best apart. Here are some key factors:
Track Record: Consistency is key. A great UFC tipster will have a proven track record over multiple events, not just a few lucky picks.
Depth of Analysis: Surface-level predictions won’t cut it. The best tipsters dive deep, offering insights on everything from striking accuracy to grappling defense.
Transparency: You should be able to see a tipster’s past performance and betting strategy. Hidden results or vague recommendations are red flags.
Community Feedback: A vibrant following and positive user reviews are good indicators that a tipster knows their stuff.
Top UFC Tipsters and Prediction Services
Here’s a list of some of the best UFC tipsters who have consistently delivered accurate predictions and valuable betting advice.
5. Covers.com MMA Tips
If you’re searching for a trusted source of UFC predictions with a wealth of expertise, look no further than Covers.com MMA Tips.
As part of the broader Covers.com sports betting platform, their MMA section delivers top-tier analysis and well-researched picks for every UFC event.
What makes Covers.com MMA Tips a valuable resource is their comprehensive coverage of fight cards, including everything from high-profile main events to under-the-radar prelims.
One of the key figures behind these MMA predictions is Danny Howard, a veteran betting analyst with deep roots in combat sports.
Danny Howard brings over a decade of experience in covering boxing and MMA, making him an invaluable asset to the Covers.com team.
Danny leverages his in-depth knowledge of both boxing and MMA to deliver predictions that go beyond the surface. He’s particularly skilled at identifying the nuances and intangibles—like fighter mentality, training camp changes, and stylistic matchups—that can turn the tide of a fight.
For bettors looking to enhance their UFC betting strategy, Covers.com MMA Tips, guided by Danny Howard’s deep expertise, offers a reliable and informed resource.
4. Manuel Gutiérrez (Manumma)
When it comes to finding value in the unpredictable world of UFC betting, Manuel Gutiérrez, better known by his handle “manumma”, is a standout tipster.
As a top-rated expert on Pyckio, one of the leading sports prediction platforms, Manuel has consistently delivered sharp and profitable UFC picks that have earned him a strong following in the betting community.
Manuel’s approach to MMA betting is deeply analytical, yet rooted in a profound understanding of the sport’s nuances.
With a background in statistics and a passion for combat sports, he has developed a methodical process for evaluating fighters, taking into account everything from their technical skills and physical attributes to their psychological readiness.
In an interview, Manuel shared that he meticulously studies each fighter’s history, performance trends, and even the specific conditions of each fight, such as location and altitude, to uncover hidden edges.
His record is very impressive, with over 400 points profit made at a win rate of 56%.
That has been achieved with a solid ROI (return on investment) of 4.5%.
You can get 50 of Manumma’s picks for €208.41, which works out at €4.17 per pick.
Manuel Gutiérrez (manumma) is an excellent choice for bettors who want a well-researched, data-driven approach to UFC betting.
His commitment to finding value in every fight makes him a valuable asset for anyone looking to improve their betting strategy and achieve long-term success.
When it comes to pinpoint accuracy and insightful analysis, Jack Attack MMA stands out in the crowded world of UFC predictions.
With a strong presence on platforms like BetMMA.tips and Twitter (X), Jack has built a reputation for delivering consistent, high-quality picks that regularly outperform the market.
What sets Jack apart is his meticulous approach to breaking down each fight.
He doesn’t just look at who’s favored to win; instead, he digs deep into fighters’ backgrounds, recent performances, and stylistic matchups to uncover hidden value.
Jack Attack MMA has an impressive track record, with a profit of 922 points made in total.
That has been achieved with a solid strike rate of 34% and an impressive return on investment of 18%.
Tips can be purchased for $25 or you can get a 2 month subscription for $150.
Jack’s transparency of results through the BetMMA Tips website has garnered him a loyal following of bettors who appreciate his sharp eye for detail and ability to spot profitable opportunities.
2. Rob Brown Betting
If you’re serious about UFC betting and looking for a tipster with a proven track record, Rob Brown Bettingis a name you need to know.
Rob Brown has established himself as one of the top UFC betting experts, offering consistently accurate predictions backed by in-depth analysis and a thorough understanding of the sport.
His website, Rob Brown Betting, is a go-to resource for bettors who want well-researched and strategic advice on UFC events.
Rob’s returns are top class, with 250 points profit made at an ROI (return on investment) of 12% and with a strike rate of 61%.
The cost of subscription at the current time is $79.99 per month or $599.99 per year.
In our own review of Rob Brown Betting, he made a commendable 28 points profit, with a very high strike rate of 79%.
We often say here that longevity is the key test of a tipster and Rob has certainly shown an ability to stand the test of time, with 8 years of profitable predictions now under his belt.
Quite simply that makes Rob Brown one of the very best in the business.
1. Lucrative MMA Tipster
When it comes to UFC betting, Lucrative MMA Betting stands at the very top of the list.
This tipster service, led by a highly knowledgeable and experienced bettor James Blissett, has garnered a stellar reputation for delivering consistent, profitable picks in the unpredictable world of MMA.
If you’re serious about making money betting on UFC, Lucrative MMA Betting is a must-follow.
As highlighted in our own review of Lucrative MMA Betting, the service has a proven track record of success, making 159 points profit in our trial at a strike rate of 44%.
With long-term profits exceeding 400 points, an exceptional long-term ROI and a transparent approach to sharing results, it’s no surprise that this tipster has become a favorite among serious UFC bettors.
Subscription costs at the time of writing start at $96 per month or $849 per year.
Subscribers not only receive expert picks but also gain access to educational content that helps them understand the reasoning behind each bet, enabling them to become more informed and confident in their betting strategies.
Lucrative MMA Betting is the gold standard for UFC betting tipsters. With a deep understanding of MMA and a methodical approach to betting, this service provides everything you need to succeed in the world of UFC wagering.
Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or new to the sport, Lucrative MMA Betting offers the insights and guidance necessary to maximize your profits.
Tipster Comparison Table
Below is a comparison table of the top 5 UFC tipsters for ease of reference:
NO.
Tipster
Profit
ROI
Strike Rate
Subscription Cost*
1
Lucrative MMA Betting
400+ points
15%
44%
$96/month or $849/year
2
Rob Brown Betting
250 points
12%
61%
$79.99/month or $599.99/year
3
Jack Attack MMA
922 points
18%
34%
$25 per tip, $150 for 2 months
4
Manuel Gutiérrez (manumma)
400+ points
4.5%
56%
€4.17 per pick (50 picks for €208.41)
5
Covers.com MMA Tips
N/A
N/A
N/A
Free
*Please note subscription costs correct at the time of writing and subject to change.
Tips for Betting on UFC Fights
Even with the best UFC tipsters at your disposal, there are some golden rules to keep in mind:
Do Your Research: While tipsters provide a solid foundation, it’s always wise to do a little research on your own. Watch fight replays, read up on fighter interviews, and keep an eye on weigh-ins.
Manage Your Bankroll: Betting on UFC can be volatile, so it’s crucial to manage your bankroll carefully. Don’t bet more than you can afford to lose, and avoid chasing losses.
Stay Updated: UFC is a fast-moving sport. Last-minute injuries, weight cut issues, or personal problems can all affect a fighter’s performance. Stay informed to make the best possible bets.
Shop Around: Different sportsbooks offer different odds. A little shopping around can increase your potential returns, especially if you’re betting on underdogs.
Final Thoughts – UFC Predictions
Betting on UFC fights can be both thrilling and profitable if you have the right tools.
By following expert tipsters who have a proven track record, you can improve your chances of making smart bets and enjoying consistent returns.
Whether you’re in it for the long haul or just looking to make some quick cash, these top UFC prediction services offer something for everyone.
So, pick your favorite, stay disciplined, and may the odds be ever in your favour!
FAQ: UFC Predictions and Tipsters
1. What are UFC predictions?
UFC predictions are forecasts made by experts or tipsters about the outcomes of mixed martial arts (MMA) fights.
These predictions are based on detailed analysis of fighters’ skills, recent performances, fight styles, and other relevant factors to help bettors make informed decisions.
2. How do UFC tipsters provide their predictions?
UFC tipsters use a variety of methods to generate their predictions.
They analyze fighter statistics, recent form, historical performance, fight styles, and sometimes even psychological factors.
Many tipsters also consider additional elements such as training camp changes, injuries, and betting market trends.
3. What should I look for in a good UFC tipster?
When choosing a UFC tipster, consider the following factors:
Track Record: Look for tipsters with a proven history of successful predictions and a high ROI (Return on Investment).
Analysis Depth: Evaluate the quality of their analysis. Good tipsters provide detailed breakdowns rather than superficial picks.
Transparency: A reputable tipster should be transparent about their results and provide evidence of their past performance.
Expertise: Check if the tipster has a solid background in MMA and a deep understanding of the sport.
4. How can I use UFC predictions effectively?
To use UFC predictions effectively:
Combine with Your Own Research: Use predictions as one part of your decision-making process. Combine them with your own research and analysis.
Manage Your Bankroll: Follow responsible betting practices, such as managing your bankroll and avoiding betting more than you can afford to lose.
Consider the Odds: Compare the predictions with available odds to find the best value bets.
5. Are UFC tipsters always accurate?
No, UFC tipsters are not always accurate. While many tipsters have a strong track record, MMA is an unpredictable sport with many variables that can affect fight outcomes.
It’s important to use tipster advice as part of a broader betting strategy rather than relying solely on it.
6. What are the benefits of following a top UFC tipster?
Following a top UFC tipster can provide several benefits:
Expert Analysis: Access to professional insights and detailed fight breakdowns.
Increased Profitability: Potential for improved betting results based on expert recommendations.
Time Savings: Saves time and effort in researching fights and analyzing data.
7. How can I find the best UFC tipsters?
To find the best UFC tipsters:
Read Reviews: Look for reviews and ratings from other bettors.
Check Performance History: Evaluate their historical performance and profitability.
Consider Recommendations: Follow recommendations from trusted sources or betting communities.
8. What are the best UFC tipsters?
Some of the top UFC tipsters include those listed above in our article.
9. Do costs for UFC tipsters vary?
Subscription costs for UFC tipsters can vary widely depending on the service.
Costs may range from a few dollars per tip to monthly or annual subscription fees. It’s important to evaluate the value offered by the tipster in relation to their pricing.
10. Can I trust free UFC predictions?
Free UFC predictions can be useful but should be approached with caution. While some free predictions come from reputable sources, others may lack depth or accuracy.
Always cross-reference free predictions with other sources to verify the accuracy of their picks.
https://www.honestbettingreviews.com/wp-content/uploads/MMA-ring-2-shutterstock_2376375085.png400710Danhttps://www.honestbettingreviews.com/wp-content/uploads/hbr-logo-new-300x145.pngDan2024-09-06 14:38:022025-06-24 18:18:48Best UFC Predictions: A Knockout Guide to the Top Experts
Are you looking for the best online casinos in the United Kingdom? There are literally dozens of different online casinos to choose from throughout the country.
You may find it challenging to select the best ones because of all the choices available. Don’t worry, though, because we’re here to help you out.
The ideal online casino should be trustworthy, reputable, fair, licensed, and entertaining. Below are the top five considerations to look for when searching for online casinos in the UK.
1. Attractive Bonuses and Promotions
The best online casinos offer several bonuses, rewards, and promotions to help you maximise your earnings. Some examples of standard casino bonuses include:
Welcome bonuses
First deposit, second deposit, third deposit bonuses
Free credit, no deposit bonuses
Daily credit bonuses
Rebate bonuses
Free spins
VIP membership programs
Most promotions like these require you to meet specific eligibility requirements, but the criteria are relatively straightforward.
For instance, simply creating a free online casino account could qualify you for a free credit no deposit bonus.
It’s also important to understand the terms and conditions that accompany these bonuses. Some casinos may have high wagering requirements, meaning you´ll need to bet a certain amount before withdrawing any winnings from the bonuses.
Make sure to compare the terms across different casinos to ensure you’re getting the best deal possible. Some online casinos also offer seasonal promotions or exclusive offers for regular players, so it’s worth keeping an eye on these to maximise your potential earnings further.
2. Fully Licensed and Regulated
Make sure the online casino holds an active gaming license from an accredited organisation. The license ensures the casino follows strict gaming regulations to ensure the fairness and honesty of their casino gaming platform.
The United Kingdom Gambling Commission (UKGC) is one of the most reputable licensing authorities in the world.
When you see a casino licensed by the UKGC, you can be confident that it adheres to high standards for fairness, security, and player protection.
It’s also a good idea to check if the casino is audited by independent agencies like eCOGRA, which regularly reviews games to make sure they are not rigged and that the payouts are fair.
A fully licensed and regulated casino will also implement strong security measures to protect your personal and financial information.
3. Customer Support Available 24/7
The best online casinos will make it easy for members and potential members to contact their customer support team at any time of the day or night.
That means the casino should have a 24/7 live customer support option, such as Live Chat via the website, where you can ask questions in real time. If phone or email is available, those are fine if they respond quickly.
Beyond availability, the quality of customer service is equally important. Good customer support should not only be available 24/7 but also be knowledgeable and responsive.
They should be able to assist with everything from account setup to resolving technical issues or answering questions about bonuses and games.
Look for casinos that offer multiple channels of support and have a reputation for quick response times and helpfulness.
Reading player reviews about customer service experiences can also give you insights on how well a casino treats its players.
4. Positive Customer Reviews and Feedback
See if the online casinos have any positive customer reviews and feedback posted on some reliable review source.
Lots of positive reviews and comments from past players will indicate that the casino has a reputation for satisfying players, such as with fair gaming and high payout rates. Those are the things you would want to see in a legitimate online casino.
It’s also a good idea to look at third-party review sites and forums where players share their experiences.
These platforms often provide unfiltered feedback on everything from payout speeds to customer service quality.
Negative reviews aren’t necessarily a red flag unless they are frequent and point to serious issues like non-payment of winnings or poor customer support.
A good mix of reviews can give you a more balanced perspective on what to expect from a particular casino.
5. Plenty of Gaming and Betting Options
You may only want to join one or two of the best online casinos to do all your gambling.
If that is the case, you should look for casinos with plenty of games and betting options to make it worthwhile.
The best casinos have hundreds of slot games, live casino table games, and sportsbook betting.
Variety is key when it comes to online gambling. A good online casino should have something for all types of players, with everything from classic table games like blackjack and roulette, video slots and live dealer games.
Many top online casinos also offer a sportsbook for those interested in betting on sports events.
You should also check if the casino regularly updates its game selection to include the latest releases from top software providers.
Conclusion
Finding the best online casinos in the UK doesn’t have to be a hard task.
By focusing on factors such as good bonuses, proper licensing, customer support you can rely on, positive reviews, and a variety of games, you can narrow down your options to find the perfect casino that suits your needs.
Remember to always gamble responsibly and to choose casinos that prioritise player safety and fairness. With the right research and a bit of luck, you’ll find an online casino that will suit your needs and give you potential to win big.
https://www.honestbettingreviews.com/wp-content/uploads/casino-online-shutterstock_2398171841.png400599Danhttps://www.honestbettingreviews.com/wp-content/uploads/hbr-logo-new-300x145.pngDan2024-09-06 13:29:272024-09-06 13:32:09How to Find the Best Online Casinos in the UK
The over/under 2.5 goals market is one of the most popular to bet on and offers some great opportunities to make a profit due to the competitive odds provided by bookmakers.
Over 2.5 goals betting is a popular market in football betting that involves predicting whether the total number of goals scored in a football match will be above or below 2.5 goals.
This type of bet is often considered a more exciting and unpredictable option compared to traditional win/lose bets.
Conversely, to win an under 2.5 goals bet, the total number of goals scored must be two or fewer.
How Does the Over/Under 2.5 Goals Market Work?
Despite sounding quite complicated, the over/under 2.5 goals market is actually remarkably simple.
It is all about how many goals are scored in a football match. What you are doing is betting on whether there will be more or less than three goals in a game.
Interestingly, 2.5 is actually the average number of goals scored in football matches across the world, although this obviously varies somewhat by league.
Now you may be wondering how there can be 2.5 goals in a football match – how can half a goal be scored?
Well in fact the market is not suggesting half a goal will be scored, but rather it is setting up a binary outcome – your bet can only win or lose, it cannot draw.
If there are two goals or less, then it is under 2.5 goals. If there are three or more goals, it is over 2.5 goals. The goals can be scored by the same team or shared between both teams.
Here are the possible outcomes in table format:
Scoreline
Outcome
0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0, 0-2
Under 2.5 goals
All other scorelines
Over 2.5 goals
So as you can see from the table above, if we have a scoreline like 2-1, 2-2, 3-0 etc, or indeed anything with three or more goals, it will be over 2.5 goals.
Advantages of Betting on Over 2.5 Goals
There are lots of advantages to betting on the over 2.5 goals market.
Firstly, as we mentioned above, it is one of the most popular markets for punters, meaning there is excellent liquidity.
In fact, generally speaking only the match odds market tends to attract more liquidity.
So you should have no problem securing good value on your bets.
At the same time, you are generally getting good odds on over 2.5 goals.
Generally speaking the odds tend to be close to evens, although this can vary greatly depending on the teams.
The likes of Barcelona and Real Madrid for example will be closer to the 1.30 mark a lot of the time, where as teams in low-scoring leagues like Greece and France may be closer to 2.50.
It can also be a fun market to bet on as you don’t have to worry about who will win the match, just that there will be at least three goals.
So every time a goal goes on, you can cheer and celebrate getting closer to winning your bet.
Particularly when you are watching high-scoring teams, it can be thrilling to watch an end-to-end game with lots of chances and goal-mouth action.
Matches involving two high scoring teams can be particularly thrilling and profitable for over 2.5 goals bets.
Finally, you can expect a reasonably high strike rate of winners with backing over 2.5 goals as around 50% of games will finish with overs.
However, this will of course vary by league and team.
The main disadvantage of backing over 2.5 goals is that you won’t win as many bets as backing the over 1.5 goals market or even the over 0.5 goals market.
As we mention above, approximately 50% of games have over 2.5 goals, so only half your bets will win.
The other thing of course is that it can be quite frustrating if you get two goals in a game and you are waiting for the third goal but it just doesn’t arrive.
Particularly if one team excels in scoring while the other is defensively strong, it could lead to a stalemate. If the teams are firing in shots on goal, hitting the woodwork and the keepers are having a blinder, it can be very tough to take at times.
Best Bookies for Over 2.5 Goals Strategy with Competitive Odds
As it is one of the most liquid markets around, you should have no problem obtaining good value for your bets on the over 2.5 goals market and pretty much all bookies will cover the market.
We find that Betfair generally has very good odds for the over/under 2.5 goals market, as does Bet 365.
Over 2.5 Goals Strategies
Below we detail two strategies for betting on over 2.5 goals and how you can use the way the market operates to your advantage.
One of the key strategies is to find football matches with a high potential for scoring over 2.5 goals.
Strategy One – Looking at the Stats for Over 2.5 Goals
The first over 2.5 goals strategy is to look for teams who have a high consistency rate of games that finish with 3 goals or more.
There are some teams who will be involved in a game five goals in one match and then only one in the next – so having an average of six goals scored but only 50% of games with over 2.5 goals. These are the kind of teams we want to avoid.
What we are looking for is teams that consistently get over 2.5 goals, even though that may not necessarily have really high scoring games with six, seven or more goals.
The point is we don’t need them to score that number of goals – we just need three goals per game. Analysing how frequently teams score can provide valuable insights for over 2.5 goals bets.
The great thing nowadays is that there is a wealth of information available to the punter at the click of a mouse via the internet that simply wasn’t there 10 or 15 years ago.
You can use a site like soccerstats to look at statistics for teams who have a high rate of over 2.5 goals.
If you go to the site, you can then select the league you are interested in at the top and then you can select the statistics option and “over/under total goals.”
This will give you a table as below, which shows the various over/under statistics for all the teams.
This gives you a snapshot of teams that tend to get over 2.5 goals. From the table we can see that Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City all average close to 70% of games with over 2.5 goals.
This is a good starting point for looking at the market but it is worth delving down further into the individual team stats to give ourselves an edge.
If we have a look at Chelsea in the 2016/17 Premier League season, they had an excellent 68% of games with over 2.5 goals.
However, their home stats are even more impressive, with an astonishing 89% of games with over 2.5 goals.
If you compare that to over 1.5 goals, it is only 6% less games with over 2.5 goals being hit yet you would get much better odds for the over 2.5 goals. So it shows the potential value of backing over 2.5 goals in Chelsea’s home games.
Looking at Manchester City, we can see again that they have a very good ratio of games finishing with over 2.5 goals, with 71%.
Contrary to Chelsea however, with Manchester City it is the away games that were more high-scoring, with 79% of games finishing with over 2.5 goals. This is a very high number and shows the potential for profit.
It is also worth checking the team news before placing your wager, just in case key attacking players are not fit or eligible for game, which could affect the prospects of there being more than two goals.
Strategy Two – Backing Overs In-Play
An alternative over 2.5 goals strategy is to wait for the game to go in-running before placing your bet.
There can be excellent value to wait until the second half in games where there are two goals. As you approach the 70 minute mark, the odds on over 2.5 goals will often approach evens.
This is where you can lie in wait and pounce. By monitoring the in-play stats, you can see how open a game is and how likely it is that there will be more goals. You can see how many shots are going in on goal, how many corners there are and how much attacking play is going on.
Using a tool such as the In-Play Scanner will identify opportunities when they arise. It uses a rating system to quantify all these stats and give you a number – the higher that number is, the more likely there will be a goal.
It has proved to be a highly accurate predictor and a trial we ran of alerts based on the tool made £632 profit in a three month review.
Now of course you don’t have to wait so long in the game before placing your bet – you could do so earlier in the second half.
Or if a game is looking really open, you could even place your bet in the first half, perhaps when there is only one goal so far, meaning you will get good odds.
It is amazing though how many games are cagey in the first half and then open up in the second half, with more goals being scored. So you can plan your bets by watching the stats carefully as to the best entry time. But this is a good over 2.5 goals strategy if used correctly.
Breaking it Down: Football Match Analysis for Over 2.5 Goals
When analyzing a football match for over 2.5 goals, there are several key factors to consider.
First, look at the teams involved and their recent form.
Teams that have been scoring a lot of goals in their recent matches are more likely to be involved in high-scoring games.
Additionally, teams that have been conceding a lot of goals are also more likely to be involved in high-scoring games.
Another important factor to consider is the head-to-head history between the two teams.
If the teams have a history of playing high-scoring matches against each other, it may be a good idea to bet on over 2.5 goals.
You can also look at the average number of goals scored in the league or tournament that the match is being played in.
If the average number of goals scored is high, it may be a good idea to bet on over 2.5 goals.
Team and League Analysis for Over 2.5 Goals
When analyzing teams and leagues for over 2.5 goals, there are several key statistics to look at.
First, look at the average number of goals scored by each team in their recent matches.
Teams that have been scoring a lot of goals are more likely to be involved in high-scoring games.
Additionally, teams that have been conceding a lot of goals are also more likely to be involved in high-scoring games.
Another important statistic to look at is the number of goals scored in the first half versus the second half.
If a team tends to score more goals in the second half, it may be a good idea to bet on over 2.5 goals.
You can also look at the number of goals scored by each team in their home and away matches.
If a team tends to score more goals at home, it may be a good idea to bet on over 2.5 goals when they are playing at home.
Managerial Impact on Goals Scored
The manager of a football team can have a significant impact on the number of goals scored by their team.
Some managers are known for their attacking style of play, which can lead to more goals being scored.
Other managers may be more defensive-minded, which can lead to fewer goals being scored.
When analyzing the managerial impact on goals scored, look at the manager’s past record and their preferred style of play.
If a manager has a history of being involved in high-scoring matches, it may be a good idea to bet on over 2.5 goals.
Additionally, look at the manager’s team selection and tactics.
If a manager is selecting a team with a lot of attacking players, it may be a good idea to bet on over 2.5 goals.
Conclusion – Over 2.5 Goals Strategy
In conclusion, over 2.5 goals betting is a popular market in football betting that involves predicting whether the total number of goals scored in a football match will be above or below 2.5 goals.
It has excellent liquidity and the odds will tend to be between 1.5 and 2.5 in most cases, excluding the most attacking teams in the world who may be a little below this.
To win an over 2.5 goals bet, the total number of goals scored in the match must be three or more.
When analyzing a football match for over 2.5 goals, there are several key factors to consider, including the teams involved, their recent form, head-to-head history, and average number of goals scored in the league or tournament.
Through the use of in-play statistics, you can give yourself an edge over other punters when betting on the market.
Additionally, the manager of a football team can have a significant impact on the number of goals scored by their team.
Finding competitive odds can enhance the profitability of over 2.5 goals bets, making it crucial to choose bookmakers offering attractive and favourable odds.
The over 2.5 goals market can be a fun market to bet on, as you cheer on goals whilst not minding who will actually win the game.
As ever though, if you are going to use an over 2.5 goals strategy, please gamble responsibly.
https://www.honestbettingreviews.com/wp-content/uploads/footballer-goal-celebration.png349700Danhttps://www.honestbettingreviews.com/wp-content/uploads/hbr-logo-new-300x145.pngDan2024-09-06 13:21:532024-10-04 17:59:25How to Win with the Over 2.5 Goals Strategy in Football
Football fans and bettors alike are always on the lookout for an edge, and in recent years, AI has been touted as the next big thing in football predictions.
Many sites are now offering free football predictions powered by AI to attract as many users as possible.
With the ability to analyse loads of data and spit out accurate predictions, AI prediction platforms seem like the perfect tool for those who want to predict match outcomes.
But is AI as good as it says?
Let’s get into the world of AI football predictions and find the best resources while also highlighting the things you need to be aware of.
What are AI Football Predictions?
AI football predictions are a new way of predicting football match outcomes using artificial intelligence.
These predictions are based on historical data, including team performance and player stats.
The aim is to provide accurate and reliable predictions so football fans and punters can make better decisions.
By using AI technology these predictions try to give users a deeper insight into upcoming matches and give them an edge in their betting strategies.
The Rise of AI in Football Predictions
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is everywhere and football is no exception.
From FiveThirtyEight’s Soccer Power Index (SPI) to Kickoff AI, many platforms are now using complex algorithms to predict football match outcomes.
These models analyse loads of factors—team performance, player stats, historical data, even weather conditions—to calculate the probability of different match results.
And chat bots like Chat GPT are getting into the prediction game, providing insights on possible outcomes and highlighting key players or trends to look out for.
On paper this sounds like a dream come true for anyone who loves football and wants to get an edge in betting or fantasy football.
These platforms are supposed to be the one-stop-shop for football predictions and will appeal to many users.
But before you put all your trust in the machines it’s important to remember that AI football predictions are not perfect.
The Reality: Few AI Sites with Verified Results
One major problem with AI football predictions is the lack of verified results.
A quick Google search for “AI Football Predictions” shows dozens of sites claiming to use AI. But few publish their actual results, and fewer still show the profit or loss from following their predictions.
If you search on Google for “AI Football Predictions” you’ll find dozens of sites claiming to use AI to predict football matches.
But none of those sites publish their full results or even state the profit/loss from following their predictions – let alone have their results verified.
Many AI prediction sites are new and just using the AI buzz as a marketing gimmick to get attention for their tips.
And while there are other sites that are using AI and look promising, most of them haven’t proven their long term reliability.
For example FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is one of the more established models and their predictions are often quoted in the media.
However, even this model has its limitations and is not immune to unexpected results—like a star player getting injured or a team pulling off a surprise upset.
FiveThirtyEight don’t publish the profit/loss (P/L) that would be made from following their predictions although they have published an analysis of the accuracy of their predictions which found “all our forecasts performed better than an unskilled forecast.”
So there’s some value in their predictions and they say their political predictions, especially for US House of Representative races, perform best.
What’s needed with sites like FiveThirtyEight and other AI prediction engines is testing to see if you can make a profit from following their predictions – not just how accurate they are.
A site could be 80% accurate in their predictions but you could still lose money from backing those predictions, as they may not be finding value in their predictions – or in other words not finding instances where the odds are higher than they should be.
Until that happens the bottom line is that while AI is exciting, there are very few AI prediction sites with verified results. So be cautious with these tools.
But there are a small number of sites such as the three listed above (Mercurius Tradr, WinnerOdds and Predictology) that use AI and do have verified, profitable results.
We will keep an eye out for any others that pop up and will update things here if they do.
The Best AI Football Predictions
While the world of AI football predictions is still evolving, as we say there are very few AI platforms right now that have produced proven, profitable results.
There are a lot of sites offering “AI Football Predictions” but many of them don’t have published results, or are only claiming to use AI because it’s a buzzword and is likely to attract customers.
Now though, let’s take a look at three of the best AI football prediction sites with both published P/L records and verified results:
Mercurius Tradr is an AI driven platform that provides advanced betting strategies by analysing historical data and market trends.
Mercurius’s AI analyses over 20,000 data points in a football match so their machine learning algorithms can understand the real attacking and defensive strength of a team.
These data points include:
Corners
Shot locations
Probability of scoring from certain areas.
It operates much like xG but with many more data points.
These ratings are then used by Mercurius’s mathematical models to forecast the probability of the most likely outcome of a match and hence the fair odds.
The AI can also predict scenarios such as whether at least one goal will be scored in the first half of a match.
Mercurius Tradr’s AI made a 2% return on investment over 1436 bets.
But then a European fintech company bought the program and took it private so it’s not available to the public at the moment.
It shows what can be done with Mercurius’s model and the kind of edge AI can give in football which the fintech company who bought it clearly saw.
If Mercurius becomes available to the public again we’ll let you know.
Odds comparison site Oddschecker has recently launched an AI-powered tool designed to identify positive EV (expected value) bets across a wide range of sports markets, including football.
The tool uses artificial intelligence to estimate the true probability of an event occurring. It then compares that probability to the implied probability reflected in bookmaker odds.
When there’s a favourable difference for the bettor, it flags it as a positive EV betting opportunity.
You can find more details on how the tool works directly from Oddschecker in the video above.
At its core, this AI tool gives sports bettors a powerful edge by analysing markets in real time. It helps identify betting trends, uncover value opportunities, and even spot arbitrage chances by highlighting discrepancies across different bookmakers.
The system pulls in injury updates, real-time stats, and leverages deep learning algorithms that continuously improve through machine learning. This approach removes human bias from the equation—just like traditional EV betting—but with the added speed and scale of AI.
From forecasting match outcomes to managing betting risk, Oddschecker’s AI tool offers a smart, data-driven way for bettors to stay ahead of the game.
Predictology is a football prediction platform that uses AI and machine learning to provide detailed predictions and betting insights.
The platform uses a database of over 350,000 football matches worldwide to create and refine football strategies.
Predictology has tips backed by AI to help you make informed betting decisions.
It also has lots of tools, statistical models, betting strategies and real-time match data.
Predictology’s strength is its flexibility, it’s suitable for both new and experienced bettors. There are pre-designed systems for members to use or you can create your own using the AI platform.
During our own live trial of Predictology we followed the pre-designed systems with daily selections sent to us via email and the results were very good.
The systems made 38 points profit with a 52% win rate.
Predictology also has automation options (extra cost) so you can set and run systems yourself.
It is undoubtedly one of the best uses of AI to generate football predictions we’ve seen and has a proven track record of success.
How AI Football Predictions Work
AI football predictions use machine learning algorithms to analyse massive amounts of match data.
These systems consider:
Team performance
Player stats
Head-to-head records
Situational factors like weather
The AI processes this data to produce predictions, which are often presented as probabilities or odds.
This detailed analysis allows for more accurate predictions, giving users a competitive edge in their bets.
AI Football Predictions Benefits
One of the biggest benefits of AI football predictions is their potential for accuracy.
By using advanced algorithms and large datasets AI can in theory produce predictions that are more reliable than traditional methods.
This would be great for football fans and bettors who want to get ahead of the game and make informed decisions.
Accurate football predictions would increase your chances of making a profit and reduce your losses.
Whether you’re following the Premier League, Champions League or other football leagues, AI holds the potential to provide you with the most comprehensively researched football predictions possible.
Why AI Is Still in Its Infancy
AI is powerful but when it comes to football matches it’s still in its infancy.
Football is a very dynamic sport and the outcome of a match can be influenced by so many variables.
While AI models are great at processing historical data and finding patterns, they struggle to account for real-time factors that can change a game.
For example team news, last minute injuries or tactical changes can completely flip a match on its head.
A star player getting injured during the warm-up, a sudden change in weather, or the emotional state of a team after a win or loss are factors that are hard for AI to predict.
This is why AI predictions should be seen as one piece of the jigsaw rather than the whole answer.
They can be useful but are not foolproof.
The Future: AI’s Potential in Football Predictions
Despite its limitations AI’s role in football predictions will only get bigger in the coming years.
As technology advances and more data becomes available AI models will get better at accounting for the subtleties of the game.
Some platforms are already working on incorporating real-time data, live match stats and breaking news to refine their predictions.
Imagine a world where AI can adjust its predictions in real-time if a key player is ruled out 5 minutes before kick-off or react to a sudden change in weather that will affect the game.
As these technologies advance we could see AI predictions becoming more accurate and reliable.
Then the question would be: would bookmakers not have their own AI models that would be just as accurate and produce the same odds for a match as an AI prediction website?
Well that’s a possibility. Bookies are probably already working on their own AI and they will end up with good ones.
Then it will be a “battle of the AIs” to see whose is better: the bookies’ or the bettors’ AI.
At this stage it’s all speculation but whatever happens with AI football predictions in the future it will be fun to watch.
Conclusion – Treat AI Predictions with Caution
For now be careful with AI football predictions that don’t have an independently verified track record.
There are many sites out there just jumping on the AI bandwagon and hoping to make a quick buck from the hype.
If they don’t even tell you if their predictions have made a profit – let alone give you a full record of their results and an independent source of verification then you should be wary of those sites.
In summary AI football predictions are exciting but are a work in progress.
There are a few like those above with verified and consistent results and they look good.
As to how AI will develop in the future for football predictions only time will tell.
Just remember the beautiful game is called unpredictable for a reason so maybe AI will never crack it.
https://www.honestbettingreviews.com/wp-content/uploads/Sports-betting-strategy-pic-3.png330577Danhttps://www.honestbettingreviews.com/wp-content/uploads/hbr-logo-new-300x145.pngDan2024-09-04 19:26:122025-03-22 14:55:26Best AI Football Predictions: What You Need to Know Before Trusting the Bots
One of the most popular markets to bet on in football is the over 1.5 goals market. There is good liquidity for trading on the market and lots of opportunities to capitalise on value during a football match.
Below we take a look at some top strategies for betting on the over 1.5 goals market.
What is the Over/Under 1.5 Goals Market?
Before we get into the strategies to bet on over 1.5, let’s quickly explain how over/under 1.5 goals market works.
You might be wondering – “How can there be half a goal in a football match?”
Well obviously that’s not possible, but by setting the market up this way it ensures there can only be two outcomes – the bet cannot end in a draw.
For example if there’s no goal or just one goal it will be under 1.5.
If there are two or more goals it will be over 1.5.
Here’s a table to illustrate:
Scoreline
Outcome
0-0, 0-1, 1-0
Under 1.5 goals
All other scores
Over 1.5 goals
So it’s simple really. Any game that has two or more goals, any scoreline, will be over 1.5.
Less than two goals and it’s under 1.5.
If the market was over/under 2 goals and the game ended 1-1 and 2-0 for example, the bet would be void.
So by setting it up as over/under 1.5 goals you can only have two outcomes.
This makes it a more binary market to bet on.
Should You Bet on Over 1.5 Goals?
It’s attractive to bet on over 1.5 because you’re hoping for goals to be scored in a game, which many people find better than hoping a game will be dull and low scoring.
You can celebrate a goal going in for either side and not even care who wins the game.
Also a large percentage of football matches end with over 1.5 goals – about 70-80% – so you will have high win rate betting on over 1.5.
Sports betting, including betting on over 1.5 goals, is all about statistical analysis and informed decision making.
The odds are low so you will win small on each game. But many small wins can add up quickly so don’t discount it as a strategy because of the low odds.
The over/under 1.5 goals market has very good liquidity – one of the best on Betfair (after the match odds market that is), so from a trading perspective it’s one of the top markets.
What to Look Out for With Over 1.5 Goals
Despite the advantages of betting on over 1.5 – a high win rate and you can cheer on goals – there are some things to be aware of if you’re betting on this market.
As mentioned above the odds are low – usually between 1.2 and 1.5 for over 1.5 goals at the start of the game.
So the wins will be small and one loss can wipe out a few wins in a row – which some people can’t stomach.
It’s a fun market to cheer on when there are goals in a game but it can be a tough one to follow if a game has lots of chances that aren’t being converted.
Maybe the keeper is making a load of great saves or a striker is missing chances left and right – either way it can be very frustrating to follow when it looks like there will be lots of goals but somehow the game ends under 1.5 goals.
Also keep an eye on team news as major players being missing can affect the chances of it being over 1.5 – whether it’s a key striker missing for one team or big defenders for another. Don’t get caught out by missing team news.
Over 1.5 Goals Strategies
Alright so lets get into it. Below are three strategies for over 1.5 goals: one is pre match and two are live.
You can use single and combined odds to get the most out of your returns when betting on over 1.5.
Strategy One – Goals Change Games
One advantage you have over the bookies is to monitor how the game is going in-play. Sometimes a game will be more or less open than expected.
The bookies price up a game in-play based on the pre-match prices so the odds will follow a standard pattern.
But once the game starts a lot can change from what was expected. One thing that can change how a game is played is a goal early on.
You have seen this in some games – when a goal is scored it can become a lot more open as if the floodgates have been opened. The team that is behind will come out more to try and get an equalizer whilst the team that is ahead will find more space to exploit.
A strategy based on this is Trade On Sports’ HT Overs Bot. It looks at the numbers from a database of thousands of games around the world and identifies where after an early goal there will be another goal – and therefore over 1.5 goals – based on this data.
The Bot considers the following:-
The score at half-time;
80% of matches historically had another goal in the second half;
70% of matches had at least one more goal after 70 mins (assuming no goal from 46 to 69 mins).
We trialled the Bot live and it made over £5,000 profit with a 12% return on investment (ROI) which is very good in football terms.
The win rate was also 70% so a high proportion of winning bets.
That’s very good and from over a thousand bets so unlikely to be a one off.
Trade on Sports’ HT Overs is an example of an approach that works on over 1.5 goals market based on data and using in-play odds to get an edge.
You can create your own strategy around this idea by watching games in-play and looking for an early goal changing the game.
Maybe the game is more open than expected and so you think it will go over 1.5 goals.
Either way it’s a strategy for over 1.5 goals to see how games develop in-play, whether using data from Trade on Sports or your own observations.
Our second strategy for over 1.5 goals is to look for matches where the stats add up. This can be using team stats, their home and away record of over 1.5 goals.
Match data and specific stats such as average match goals and goals conceded will help you identify matches to bet on.
If you go on the site soccerstats there’s loads of info to use to build a strategy.
First of all you can choose a league and then look for the team record for over 1.5 goals.
Here’s the stats table for the English Premier League (EPL) 2021/22 season:
We can see for example that Leicester City had a very high number of games with over 1.5 goals, with 87% of their games having two or more goals.
You may not have necessarily picked Leicester as a high-scoring team, but they actually had more games finishing with over 1.5 goals than Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal and Spurs for example.
What is particularly interesting though is if we delve into a breakdown of their stats:-
If you have a look at their away statistics in particular, what stands out is that an amazing 100% of Leicester’s games finished with over 1.5 goals.
That means even in tough away fixtures against teams that were tight at the back, the game still finished with two or more goals.
Another side that might surprise people in terms of their record is Aston Villa, although this time it’s their home record that stands out:-
Eighty-nine percent of their home games finished over 1.5 goals, the best record in the league along with Liverpool.
You wouldn’t have picked Aston Villa as a team that would have this record so there might be value there compared to Liverpool who would have very short odds at home for over 1.5 goals.
Using these stats from soccerstats will help you identify teams that are “under the radar” for over 1.5 goals.
You can also drill down further and look at the home and away stats to find teams that stand out.
You want to find situations where you have a team at home who have a lot of home over 1.5 matches against an away team who have the same away.
Also look at the teams playing styles to understand why they have those stats and if they will be repeated.
Using the stats like this and making sure they work in your favour will give you more chance of winning over 1.5 goals than 90% of punters.
Strategy Three – Following In-Play Stats
Our third strategy for over 1.5 goals is to follow the action once the game is in-play and use match stats to find value bets.
Games often start slowly with both teams being cautious and feeling each other out. The stats support this with more goals being scored in the second half and most in the last 15 minutes (i.e. by 15 minute segment).
So instead of placing a bet before the game kicks off you can let it go in-play and see how it unfolds.
You can either watch it live and monitor the shots, chances created, corners etc or use a tool such as the In-Play Scanner.
It does the hard work for you, monitoring dozens of matches at the same time for how many of these actions are happening.
Games are rated according to how many of these actions are happening and when a goal is likely to be scored. When a rating hits a certain level (70 for example) it means a goal is about to be scored.
The benefit of this strategy of course is you will get better odds by waiting for the game to go in-play.
The odds on over 1.5 goals will move quite a lot from the kick-off as the minutes tick by so there’s a great value opportunity.
This strategy can be very effective. We actually ran a trial of a system that used these in-play stats and made £632 profit over 3 months.
There’s a risk of course that an early goal will be scored before you get your bet on and the opportunity will have gone. But don’t give up.
You can still monitor the game and there may be another chance to get into the over 1.5 goals market later in the match.
Benefits of Betting on Over 1.5
Betting on over 1.5 can be a profitable strategy for sports bettors, it has several benefits that make it attractive.
One of the main advantages is its simplicity and high probability of winning.
Since a large percentage of football matches end with at least 2 goals, this market is stable and predictable. That’s what attracts many bettors to the over 1.5 market.
Compared to Other Strategies
One of the main advantages of betting on over 1.5 is its reliability compared to other strategies.
Since a large percentage of football matches end with 2 or more goals, this market is relatively stable and predictable.
By focusing on teams that score and create chances you can increase your chances of winning.
That makes it easier to develop a consistent strategy as the probability of a game ending over 1.5 is higher statistically.
High Win Rate
Another advantage of betting on over 1.5 is the potential for a high win rate.
The odds may not be as high as other markets but the probability of winning is higher so it’s a good option for those who want to manage their risk.
By combining this strategy with good money management and value bets you can get the most out of your returns while minimising your exposure.
This way you can build up your profits steadily as the frequent small wins add up over time.
Summary
Over 1.5 goals is a simple market to bet on – you just need at least 2 goals in the game to win. The outcome of winning the bet is based on the total goals in the match not both teams scoring.
The odds are low – usually between 1.2 and 1.5 before a game starts but on the plus side most games will have 2 or more goals.
Use stats before and in-play to make money with an over 1.5 goals strategy.
As always, please gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose.
Are you tired of losing money on tennis bets? Do you want to turn the odds in your favor?
Look no further because we have the winning advantage for you.
In this article, we will provide you with the best tennis betting advice that will help you beat the odds and increase your chances of making profitable bets.
Our team of experienced betting experts have tested out dozens of strategies and systems to identify winning approaches to betting on tennis.
Whether you’re a casual bettor or a seasoned professional, our advice will give you the edge you need to succeed.
We understand that tennis betting can be unpredictable, but with our expert advice, you can mitigate the risks and maximize your winnings.
We’ll look at five killer strategies to help you with your tennis betting.
We’ll also let you know how you can manage your bankroll effectively to give you the best chance of success.
Don’t rely on luck alone. Gain the winning advantage with our expert tennis betting advice.
Stay tuned, and let’s beat the odds together!
Understanding Tennis Betting
Tennis betting is a popular form of sports betting that involves wagering on the outcome of tennis matches.
It can be a fun and exciting way to enhance your viewing experience, but it’s essential to understand the basics of tennis betting before you start.
When you place a tennis bet, you are wagering on the outcome of a tennis match, either on the winner of the match or on specific aspects of the match, such as the number of sets or games played.
There are several types of tennis bets you can make, including:
Match Winner: Betting on which player will win the match.
Set Betting: Wagering on the exact score in sets.
Game Betting: Betting on the number of games played in a match or a specific set.
Tennis betting odds are determined by the bookmaker and reflect the likelihood of a particular outcome.
These odds can vary between bookmakers, so it’s essential to shop around for the best odds to maximise your potential returns.
When making your bets, consider factors such as the players’ form, head-to-head records, and surface preferences.
For example, some players perform better on clay courts, while others excel on grass or hard courts.
By taking these factors into account, you can make more informed tennis predictions and increase your chances of success.
The Key to Success: Have a Winning Mindset
The most essential advice for tennis betting, before we consider specific methods or strategies, is to understand the betting market and cultivate a winning mindset.
This involves thinking like a professional bettor rather than a casual punter.
Professionals approach their betting meticulously, carefully developing strategies and planning their bets.
They don’t place bets impulsively or just for entertainment; every decision is deliberate.
To adopt a winning mindset, it is crucial to:
Have a clear strategy in place before you start and stick to it.
Implement a sensible staking plan to avoid depleting your funds.
Keep a detailed record of all your bets.
Be able to withstand losing streaks and resist the urge to chase losses.
By adhering to these principles, you will significantly improve your chances of success compared to most casual punters.
Tennis Betting Advice – Five Approaches to Help You Beat the Bookies
Let’s explore some specific advice to enhance your tennis betting.
Over the past decade, we have tested dozens of different tennis betting strategies and systems to determine what works and what doesn’t.
This experience has provided us with a solid understanding of successful approaches and their underlying logic.
These approaches cover everything from using statistics in tennis betting, to focusing on head-to-head records, to trading in-play.
Now, let’s dive into five different approaches to tennis betting.
1. Use Stats to Help Your Tennis Betting
One of the primary ways to approach betting on tennis is to utilise statistics.
There are numerous tools available these days with a wealth of information, including on sites such as Flashscores and the official ATP and WTA Tour websites.
You can look at key stats like:
First serve percentage: this is the number of their first serves a player gets in, as a percentage of all of their first serves. It is normally around 63% on average for a tour player (men’s and women’s).
First serve hold percentage: the number of service games a player wins as a percentage. On the men’s (ATP) tour it is around 80% and on the women’s (WTA) about 65%.
Return points won: how often, as a percentage, a player wins the point when returning. On the ATP Tour it is around 38% and on the WTA Tour 45%.
Break point conversion: the percentage of break points a player wins – or the point that will win the game when the opponent is serving. The stats for break points are very similar to return points won – 39% for the ATP Tour and 46% for the WTA.
Taking a combination of these stats, you can build a profile of a player or match.
For example, let’s say there was an upcoming match on grass.
Being a faster surface with a lower bounce, servers tend to be favoured on grass.
Serve is held an average of 79% of the time on the men’s tour in general, but 82% of the time on grass.
So it might be worth looking for players with a high percentage of service holds, who would be more favoured on grass than other surfaces.
Or there could be two big servers going up against each other.
With stats on their service holds we might choose to back a high number of games in the match, or for there to be one of more tie-breaks.
If they both have below average stats for their return games won, then it might be an even better bet.
Alternatively, if a player has a high return percentage, they might be more likely to cause an upset against a player who relies heavily on their serve.
Or in matches involving strong returners, you might bet on a higher number of breaks, potentially leading to more games played and higher total game counts.
There are many ways you can use stats to help your tennis betting.
There are services out there that bring together a range of these stats to help with betting and trading decisions.
Tennis Profits, for example, has 35 detailed performance statistics they provide to members to help with their trading.
Knowing these stats and how to use them can give you a significant edge on other bettors.
2. Use the Services of a Top Tipster
You might be looking for tennis betting advice but don’t have the time to spend hours analysing stats and watching matches live of course.
As an alternative, one option is to utilize the services of a tennis tipster.
Using the services of a top tipster can be a great way to improve your tennis betting results. Here are some benefits of using a tipster:
Expert Knowledge: Tipsters have extensive knowledge of the tennis world and can provide valuable insights and analysis. They spend hours studying form, analysing statistics, and identifying value bets, saving you time and effort.
Value Bets: Tipsters can help you identify value bets and avoid costly mistakes. By leveraging their expertise, you can make more informed betting decisions and increase your chances of profitability.
Consistent Advice: Tipsters can provide you with a steady stream of profitable betting tips and advice. By following their recommendations, you can enhance your tennis betting strategy and achieve better results.
Tipsters dedicate extensive hours to studying form, analyzing statistics, and identifying value bets, ultimately saving you time and effort.
Some tipsters offer free tennis predictions, providing expert betting advice and insights for upcoming matches and tournaments at no cost.
If you find a tipster with a proven, long-term record of profitability, it may well be a better choice than spending hours studying form and trying to find value bets yourself.
Several top tipsters in the industry have made consistent profits over a sustained period of time.
Here are two of the best tennis tipsters we have discovered through our research and testing:
Jackpot Junkie Tennis: Established in 2023, this tipster has made over 90 points profit at a return on investment (ROI) of 14% and with a strong strike rate of 38%. Their tips are normally in the main match odds market, where there is good liquidity.
PatrickRoss.Tennis: This package includes a range of resources to help your tennis betting including daily trading and betting picks, weekly tournament guides, automated picks and a tennis trading guide. Patrick’s automated system, Tennis Goldmine, made a profit of 28 points during our review at an ROI of 10%.
By following reputable tipsters like these, you can enhance your tennis betting profitability.
They handle the hard work and research, allowing you to simply follow their tips and enjoy the potential for profit.
3. Focus on Head-to-Head Records
Head-to-head (H2H) records are a crucial part of tennis betting. They provide valuable insights into how players match up against each other and are often overlooked by bettors.
Head-to-head records can help predict outcomes based on historical performance, playing styles, and psychological factors.
Here is a detailed look at why head-to-head records matter:
Playing Style Matchups
Compatibility: Some players’ styles naturally counter or complement others. For instance, a strong baseliner might struggle against a net-rusher.
Surface Impact: The effectiveness of playing styles can vary by surface. A player who dominates on clay might struggle on grass against the same opponent.
Psychological Edge
Confidence: A player with a winning H2H record might have a psychological advantage, feeling more confident and relaxed.
Pressure: Conversely, the player with a losing record may feel added pressure or doubt, impacting their performance.
Tactical Awareness
Game Plans: Players familiar with each other’s games might develop specific tactics to exploit weaknesses, making H2H records an indicator of tactical battles.
Let’s take a look at the dynamics of a specific head-to-head record and how knowledge of it can help us in our betting.
Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal have had a long rivalry at the top of men’s tennis and examining their head-to-head record is illuminating.
Their contrasting styles and strengths are reflected in their head-to-head statistics.
Since 2013, Djokovic has dominated their rivalry, winning 15 of his 22 encounters with Nadal.
Interestingly, Nadal’s seven victories during this period were all on clay, where he holds a head-to-head advantage of 7-5.
Conversely, on other surfaces, Djokovic has been dominant, boasting a flawless 10-0 record against Nadal over the period.
Despite this dominance, the odds for their non-clay encounters over the past decade have often remained close.
For instance, in the 2019 Australian Open final, Djokovic was priced at 1.75 in the betting markets against Nadal.
Djokovic secured a comfortable victory in the final, defeating Nadal in three straight sets, further demonstrating his continued dominance over Nadal on courts other than clay.
On the basis of the odds – and without examining their head-to-head records – you might have assumed this would be a close contest.
However, dissecting the H2H record revealed a clear edge to Djokovic on hard courts, which he maintained.
There are many H2H records like this in tennis that can be uncovered with simple research and can reveal value betting opportunities.
4. Find Value Tennis Bets
An alternative method to analyzing stats, head-to-head records, and the like is to focus on shifts in betting odds and use these changes to our advantage.
One bookmaker known for highly accurate odds is Pinnacle. They are recognized for providing some of the most precise odds in the industry.
Such bookmakers are often referred to as “hard” or “sharp” bookies.
Many of these sharp bookmakers are based in Asia and offer much higher betting limits on tennis matches compared to their European counterparts.
As a result, they attract substantial professional money, with large-scale bettors and syndicates placing their bets there due to the higher stakes allowed compared to European bookies.
This influx of professional money helps these bookmakers more accurately reflect the “true odds” of an event, as they incorporate comprehensive information from professional operations, such as player fitness and local conditions.
Traditional “soft” bookies, in contrast, are slower to react to news and impose stricter betting limits, thus attracting less professional money.
Therefore, bettors can exploit the discrepancy in odds between “sharp” and “soft” bookmakers.
When sharp bookies lower their odds on a player while soft bookies do not, this presents an opportunity to place a value bet with the soft bookmakers.
Tools like Trademate Sports monitor the markets of both sharp and soft bookies, alerting users when such an opportunity arises.
Here’s how Trademate Sports explains the concept:
These tools can be used in various sports, but tennis is particularly suitable due to market liquidity, frequent matches, and the binary outcome (only two players in a match).
However, as with other strategies like matched betting and value betting, this approach might eventually lead to limitations on your bookmaker accounts.
There are many bookie accounts available for this method though, and sometimes you can even use betting exchanges to capitalize on odds differences.
This strategy offers a viable option for those who prefer not to spend much time analyzing form and playing styles but instead rely on market signals across various tennis tournaments.
5. Take Advantage of In-Play Betting Opportunities
In-play betting, or live betting, in tennis offers unique opportunities to leverage real-time statistics and research to make informed wagers.
One of the key advantages of in-play betting is the ability to observe a player’s performance and momentum during the match.
For instance, monitoring first serve percentages, return points won, and break point opportunities can provide valuable insights into the dynamics of the tennis game.
If a player consistently struggles with their second serve or shows signs of fatigue, this could indicate potential weaknesses that their opponent might exploit.
Bettors can capitalize on these real-time trends by placing bets on game outcomes, set winners, or total games within a match.
Researching head-to-head records and player performance on specific surfaces before the match can also enhance in-play betting strategies.
Understanding historical performance trends allows bettors to anticipate possible shifts in momentum.
For example, if a player with a strong record against their current opponent on clay courts loses the first set, statistical analysis might suggest they have the capability to bounce back, making a live bet on them to win the next set a viable option.
Additionally, observing player behavior and body language can provide subtle cues about their confidence and mental state, which can be critical in high-pressure moments.
Another critical aspect of in-play betting is reacting to sudden changes, such as injuries or weather conditions.
For example, a player with a strong baseline game might struggle if windy conditions affect their precision, offering an opportunity to bet against them if the weather deteriorates.
Similarly, if a player shows signs of physical distress or calls for medical timeouts, bettors can quickly place wagers on their opponent to win the upcoming games or sets.
By combining pre-match research with real-time statistical analysis and observation, bettors can effectively exploit in-play betting opportunities in tennis.
If you are looking for a service that brings all this together for you in one package then it is worth checking out Tennis Profits.
With a range of trading strategies, comprehensive stats covering the top 900 men’s and women’s players and a chatroom where you can follow a pro trader live, Tennis Profits shows how you can capitalise on in-play opportunities.
Whilst it can take more skill and time to learn than traditional pre-match betting, in-play trading can be very rewarding long-term for those prepared to study and master it.
Choosing the Right Bookmaker
Choosing the right bookmaker is crucial for successful tennis betting. Here are some factors to consider when selecting a bookmaker:
Competitive Odds: Look for a bookmaker that offers competitive odds and a wide range of tennis betting markets. This will ensure you get the best possible returns on your bets.
Reputation and Customer Service: Consider the bookmaker’s reputation and the quality of their customer service. A reputable bookmaker with good customer support can provide a more reliable and enjoyable betting experience.
Live Streaming and In-Play Betting: Check if the bookmaker offers live streaming and in-play betting options. These features can enhance your betting experience by allowing you to watch matches live and place bets in real-time.
Bonuses and Promotions: Look for bookmakers that offer bonuses and promotions specifically for tennis betting. These can provide additional value and boost your bankroll.
Effective Money Management is Key to Success
Whatever betting strategies you use, it is almost impossible to succeed long term in tennis betting without an effective approach to money management.
By applying sound financial strategies and risk management techniques, you can safeguard your capital, reduce losses, and enhance profitability over time.
Here are key principles for managing your bankroll:
Set a Budget: Determine a clear budget for your betting activities based on your financial situation and goals. Decide how much you can afford to wager without risking your financial stability.
Define Betting Units: Break your bankroll into betting units to manage your wagers effectively. Each unit should be a small percentage of your total bankroll, allowing you to endure losing streaks and fluctuations. For example, if you have $1,000 to bet with, you could split this into 1% stakes for each bet, which would be $10 per bet to start with. If you bank were to increase to $2,000, then your stakes would be $20, and so on.
Implement Staking Plans: Use staking plans such as flat betting, proportional betting, or the Kelly Criterion to decide the size of your bets based on confidence levels and perceived value. Consistent staking strategies can help optimize returns and reduce risks.
Monitor Your Performance: Track your betting activities, wins, losses, and overall performance to assess your strategies’ effectiveness. Analyzing your results can reveal areas for improvement and help refine your betting approach.
Adjust Your Strategy: Be flexible and ready to adapt your betting strategy based on performance, market conditions, and emerging trends. Learning from your experiences and adjusting accordingly can optimize your bankroll management and boost your chances of success.
By integrating these principles into your betting routine, you can build a strong foundation for long-term success in your tennis betting and set yourself apart from the vast majority of casual punters.
Conclusion – Tennis Betting Advice
Turning the odds in your favor in tennis betting requires more than just luck.
With expert advice, a winning mindset, and effective money management, you can significantly increase your chances of making profitable bets.
By adopting a clear strategy, leveraging statistical analysis, and utilizing top tipsters, you can enhance your understanding of the game and make informed betting decisions.
In-play opportunities and head-to-head records further provide valuable insights that can give you an edge over the bookies.
Remember, success in tennis betting is a marathon, not a sprint. Stay disciplined, keep learning, and continuously refine your approach to build a solid foundation for long-term profitability.
Choosing trustworthy online sportsbooks is also crucial to ensure a safe and enjoyable betting experience.
And please remember to always gamble responsibly.
Let’s beat the odds together and enjoy the rewards of smart, strategic betting.
You may have come across the term “over 1.5 goals” or “under 1.5 goals,” but what exactly do these mean?
Basically, it is a market within sports betting where you can bet on whether the total number of goals in a football match will be above 1.5 goals (i.e. 2 goals or more) or less than 1.5 goals (i.e. 0 or 1 goals).
We will now explain in more detail how it works, plus look at strategies for winning money from the over/under 1.5 market and the potential pitfalls of betting on it.
The teams playing can significantly impact the likelihood of achieving over 1.5 goals, especially if they have strong attacking styles.
What is Over/Under 1.5 Goals in Football Betting?
Over/Under 1.5 Goals is a popular betting market in football betting that involves wagering on the total number of goals scored in a football match.
Essentially, you are betting on whether the combined score of both teams will be over 1.5 goals (meaning 2 or more goals) or under 1.5 goals (meaning 0 or 1 goal).
Here is a table summarising how the over/under 1.5 goals market works:
Scoreline
Outcome
0-0, 0-1, 1-0
Under 1.5 goals
All other scores
Over 1.5 goals
This market is straightforward and appeals to both novice and experienced bettors because it simplifies the betting process.
You don’t need to predict the exact score or the winning team; you only need to focus on the total goals scored.
This type of bet is particularly suitable for matches where both teams are expected to score many goals, making it an exciting and potentially profitable option in football betting.
Examples
Alright, let’s break it down with some real examples to see how this works.
Let’s say you’ve placed a bet on over 1.5 goals. What’s the outcome you’re hoping for?
Simple: you want at least 2 goals in the match.
It doesn’t matter if it’s 1-1, 2-0, or even 5-3 – as long as there are 2 or more goals, you’re winning.
So, whether it’s a tight 1-1 draw or a goal-fest like 4-2, your bet comes through.
Now, what if you’re backing under 1.5 goals? What does that mean for you?
In this case, you’re rooting for a low-scoring game, ideally 0-0 or 1-0.
As long as there’s one goal or less, you’re good.
So, a 0-0 or a narrow 1-0 victory works in your favor. But the moment that second goal hits the net, your bet’s out.
You might be wondering, why is there half a goal in the market? After all, you can’t exactly score half a goal in football, right?
Well, the reason is pretty straightforward: by using half a goal, the bet can only have two outcomes – win or lose. There’s no possibility for a draw.
Here’s how it works: if the market was set at over/under 1 goal and the match ended 1-0 or 0-1, your bet would be a draw or voided, meaning no one wins.
But with over/under 1.5 goals, the line is clear.
It either goes over or stays under, so you always have a definitive result – win or lose – keeping things nice and simple.
Why Bet on Over/Under 1.5 Goals?
The over/under markets are some of the most popular options for bettors, especially on platforms like Betfair.
In fact, they often come second in liquidity only to the match result markets.
While over/under 2.5 goals tends to be the most popular, over/under 1.5 goals is a close runner-up.
The odds in these markets usually range between 1.1 and 1.4, depending on how many goals are expected in that particular game.
What makes betting on over/under 1.5 goals so appealing is its simplicity. You don’t have to stress about which team will come out on top – all you need to do is predict whether there will be at least two goals or not.
So, if you expect an open game with at least a couple of goals, betting on over 1.5 could be a smart move.
On the flip side, if you’re predicting a cagey, low-scoring match, going for under 1.5 goals might just pay off.
Football Leagues and Over 1.5 Goals Betting
Certain football leagues are known for their high-scoring matches, making them ideal for over 1.5 goals betting.
The Premier League, Bundesliga, and the Dutch Eredivisie are prime examples, as they often feature teams with strong attacking styles and high goal averages.
For instance, the Premier League consistently ranks among the top leagues for average goals scored per match, making it a fertile ground for over 1.5 goals bets.
Additionally, international competitions like the Champions League and Europa League can also present excellent opportunities, especially during the group stages when teams are more likely to play offensively.
By focusing on these high-scoring leagues and competitions, punters can increase their chances of success in the over 1.5 goals market.
How to Approach Betting on the Over/Under 1.5 Goals Market
To excel in the over/under 1.5 goals market, it’s crucial to conduct thorough research and analysis.
Start by examining team news, such as injuries to key players, which can significantly impact the number of goals scored.
Analyzing team form and recent performance can also provide valuable insights.
For instance, if both teams have been involved in high-scoring matches recently, betting on over 1.5 goals might be a wise choice.
Conversely, if both teams have strong defenses and a history of low-scoring games, the under 1.5 goals option could offer better value.
Utilizing statistical analysis and performance data can further enhance your betting strategy, helping you make informed decisions and identify value bets in the market.
Strategies for Betting on the Over / Under 1.5 Goals Market
Thinking about betting on the over/under 1.5 goals market but not sure where to start?
Sometimes it feels like a no-brainer when you expect plenty of goals, but as any seasoned bettor knows, things are rarely as simple as they seem.
The key to success is always finding value – meaning odds that are higher than they should be, giving you an edge over the bookie or betting market.
Here are a few strategies that can help you gain that edge when betting on over/under 1.5 goals:
Exploiting bookie mistakes: Bookies use algorithms to price up matches, but they don’t always adjust in-play when things change – like after an early goal that can open the game up. This is where tools like the Trade on Sports HT Overs Bot come in. It identifies opportunities for over 1.5 goals based on the halftime score and situations where there’s an 80%+ chance of another goal being scored. This bot has made over £6,000 profit during live testing, making it one of the most successful systems we’ve reviewed.
Injured strikers: If one or both teams are missing their star strikers, they might struggle to find the back of the net. In such cases, betting on under 1.5 goals could offer great value.
Missing defenders: On the flip side, if key defenders are out, teams might have trouble keeping goals out. Backing over 1.5 goals could be a smart move here.
Late-stage tournaments: In international tournaments like the Euros or World Cup, especially in the knockout rounds, goals can dry up. Teams are more cautious, often “shutting up shop” to avoid giving anything away. In these situations, backing under 1.5 goals could pay off.
Mismatches: When a top team faces one near the bottom of the table, many people expect a goal-fest. However, stats often show that’s not always the case. Some of these lower teams are defensively solid but struggle to score, which makes them good candidates for under 1.5 goals bets.
With these strategies, you can approach the over/under 1.5 goals market with a sharper edge. It’s all about finding those value opportunities and capitalizing on them.
Strategies for Trading the Over/Under 1.5 Goals Market
In addition to betting on the over/under 1.5 goals, you can also trade the market using an exchange like Betfair.
The over/under markets often have great liquidity, making them ideal for trading.
Here are a few strategies you can consider for trading the over/under 1.5 goals market:
Use In-Play stats: Tools like the In-Play Scanner track matches live and give them a rating that reflects how likely it is for a goal to be scored soon. For example, if a match’s ranking hits 70, it indicates a strong chance of a goal. The beauty of this is that once a game is in-play, the odds for over 1.5 goals can rise significantly compared to the pre-match prices, giving you better value. During a three-month trial, alerts based on this scanner made £632 in profit right here on the site.
Trading the first 10 minutes: If there’s no goal in the first 10 minutes, the odds for under 1.5 goals shift substantially. However, stats show that goals are relatively rare in those opening minutes (less than 1 in 5 games). So, you could back the unders before kickoff and then lay (or cash out) after 10 minutes for a profit. If a goal is scored early, you can always trade out for a loss and cut your risk.
Trading after a goal: Once a goal goes in, the unders market typically spikes upward, but it often stabilizes again within 5-10 minutes. If you’re quick enough, you can back unders immediately after a goal and then trade out a few minutes later for a quick profit.
Hedging: Another approach is to use a hedge by trading the unders market alongside another market. For example, you could lay HT 0-0 or back a team to score. If a goal is scored at the right moment, you can trade out of both markets to lock in a profit.
Trading the over/under 1.5 goals market can be an exciting way to stay ahead and take advantage of the live action.
It’s all about timing and finding the right value at key moments during the match!
Odds Comparison and Bookmaker Selection
When betting on the over/under 1.5 goals market, finding the best odds is essential for maximizing your potential returns.
Different bookmakers may offer varying odds for the same bet, so it’s crucial to compare them before placing your wager.
Using odds comparison tools can simplify this process, allowing you to quickly identify the best available odds.
Additionally, consider the reputation and reliability of the bookmaker. Look for bookmakers with a strong track record, excellent customer service, and convenient payment options.
By selecting a reputable bookmaker and securing the best odds, you can enhance your overall betting experience and increase your chances of success.
Types of Over 1.5 Goals Bets
There are several types of over 1.5 goals bets that punters can explore to diversify their betting strategies.
Accumulator bets, for example, involve combining multiple over 1.5 goals bets into a single wager, potentially offering higher returns but also increasing the risk.
In-play betting is another exciting option, allowing you to place bets on the over/under 1.5 goals market during the match. This approach offers more flexibility and can be particularly profitable if you can read the flow of the game accurately.
Combination bets, which involve pairing the over/under 1.5 goals market with other betting markets like match winner or both teams to score, can also provide unique opportunities for profit.
These days, bet builders are a popular type of combination bet.
By exploring these different types of bets, you can find the approach that best suits your betting style and goals.
Conclusion – A Simple Market with a lot of Potential for Goals Scored
The over/under 1.5 goals market is one of the most popular markets to bet on. Although it often seems obvious when there will be two or more goals, sometimes it is not that straightforward and it can pay off to look for details such as team news and for games where there are particularly strong defences or attacks, for example.
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