Odds On Bet: Everything You Need to Know About Short Odds Betting

If you’ve ever scrolled through a bookmaker’s odds and spotted something like 1/2 or 1.50, you’ve seen an odds on bet in action.

But what does that actually mean — and more importantly, how do you make money from it?

In this guide, we’re going to break down what odds on bets are, how they differ from other odds types, their advantages and risks, and how savvy punters use them to their advantage.

What Are Odds On Bets?

To truly understand how odds-on bets work — and how they can be used effectively — it’s important to start with the basics of what they are and how they compare to other types of odds.

Definition and Difference from Odds Against

An odds on bet refers to a betting selection where the potential profit is less than your stake. This is the opposite of odds against, where the potential profit exceeds your stake.

• Odds On: You stake £10 to win £5 profit (e.g., odds of 1/2)
• Odds Against: You stake £10 to win £20 profit (e.g., odds of 2/1)

Odds on bets are usually associated with strong favourites — teams or athletes deemed more likely to win.

Odds Formats Explained

• Fractional odds (UK): 1/2 means you win £1 for every £2 staked.
• Decimal odds (Europe): 1.50 includes your stake, so a £10 bet returns £15.
• American odds: Shown as minus odds, e.g. -200, meaning you must bet $200 to win $100.

Use an odds converter or calculator to move between formats easily.

Visual Example:

Implied Probability of Odds On Bets

The implied probability helps you understand the chances the bookmaker thinks the outcome has. For example:

• Odds of 1/2 = Implied probability of 66.7%
• Odds of 4/5 = Implied probability of 55.6%

Formula:
For decimal odds: 1 / Decimal odds = Implied probability

Understanding this helps you find value in short odds by comparing real-world probabilities to what the odds suggest.

Common Misconceptions

• “There’s no value in odds on.” — Not true. Some of the best value bets lie in short-priced favourites.
• “Short odds always win.” — Also false. Favourites lose all the time, which is why bankroll management is key.
• “Low odds mean low risk.” — Lower variance, yes. But losses can still hurt your profit line.

Why Bookmakers Offer Odds On Bets

Bookies aren’t in the business of handing out free money. So why offer odds that return less than your stake?

The Bookmaker Margin (Vigorish or Overround)

Bookies build a margin into their odds — known as the vigorish or overround. This is how they guarantee a profit regardless of the outcome.

In odds on markets, that margin can be higher, especially when the odds on favourite is popular among punters.

Balancing the Books

When a favourite is heavily backed, bookmakers may shorten the odds to protect themselves — influencing market confidence indicators.

Odds On and Market Efficiency

In well-known markets (e.g. Premier League favourites, Grand National favourites), the odds tend to be more efficient due to higher liquidity and sharper pricing.

But in niche sports or lower leagues, overpriced favourites can still exist due to weaker betting market efficiency.

Famous Odds On Markets

• Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor: Mayweather opened around 1/10 – massive odds on.
• Tiger Woods in his prime: Frequently odds on, even in fields of 100+ golfers.

Favourite-Longshot Bias: Why Short Odds Can Be Better Value

One of the most fascinating and misunderstood phenomena in sports betting is the favourite–longshot bias.

While it may sound like something cooked up in a stats lecture, it’s backed by decades of academic research — and it has real-world implications for punters.

In short, the favourite–longshot bias reveals that bookmakers tend to underprice favourites and overprice longshots, meaning that odds-on bets often offer better long-term value than most people realise.

📚 What the Research Shows

The favourite–longshot bias was first formally studied in the late 1940s, with several landmark academic studies confirming its persistence across different sports and time periods.

Let’s look at three key pieces of research.

1. Griffith (1949) – The Original Study

This early study of US horse racing revealed that:

• Bets on favourites (e.g. 2/1, 4/5) tended to outperform their implied probabilities, returning closer to break-even or even profit.
• Bets on longshots (e.g. 20/1, 50/1) underperformed badly, returning far less than their implied probabilities would suggest.

In other words, punters consistently overestimate the chances of outsiders winning.

2. Thaler & Ziemba (1988) – Market Inefficiencies in Racing

In their seminal paper, “Parimutuel Betting Markets: Racetracks and Their Discontents,” economists Richard Thaler and William Ziemba expanded on Griffith’s findings using a large dataset from US racetracks.

Key findings included:

• The expected return on a $2 bet fell as odds increased — bettors consistently lost more money backing longshots than favourites.
• Odds-on favourites (less than even money) actually produced higher average returns than many higher-priced selections, even after accounting for the bookmaker’s margin.
• The market was inefficient, failing to reflect the true probabilities of outcomes — particularly at the extreme ends of the odds spectrum.

This study reinforced the idea that short-priced favourites can offer better long-term value than they initially appear to.

3. Cain, Law & Peel (2000) – UK Horse Racing Study

A more recent and contextually relevant UK-based study was conducted by Cain, Law, and Peel (2000) and examined the fixed-odds football betting market in the UK.

Their paper, “The Favourite–Longshot Bias and Market Efficiency in UK Football Betting,” analysed thousands of football match odds and outcomes.

Key findings:

• The favourite–longshot bias persisted strongly in football betting markets.
• Backing favourites consistently produced a higher return than backing underdogs, even after accounting for the bookmaker’s overround.
• The market was not fully efficient, meaning that savvy bettors could exploit mispriced favourites.
• The degree of bias was more pronounced in matches with clear favourites, such as top vs bottom-tier teams.

This study confirmed that the bias extended beyond racing and into mainstream sports markets like football — and that odds-on favourites in football may often be underbet, leaving opportunities for value.

🧠 Why the Bias Exists

There are a few psychological and behavioural reasons for this phenomenon:

• The thrill of a big win: Punters are drawn to high returns, even if the chances are tiny.
• Poor probability estimation: Many bettors can’t accurately assess low-probability events.
• Narrative bias: People love underdog stories, which are often overhyped by the media.
• Entertainment over strategy: Recreational punters bet for fun, not profit — and fun often means backing a 100/1 outsider for a laugh.

✅ What This Means for You: Value in Short Odds

If you’re serious about building long-term profit, you should be less interested in jackpot wins and more interested in finding value — even if it’s at 1/2 or 4/6.

Here’s why:

• Odds-on favourites win more often, so variance is lower.
• Implied probability gaps are smaller — meaning you only need a slight edge to beat the market.
• Bookmakers often price favourites conservatively, leaving room for you to profit if you do your research.

Tipsters Who Specialise in Favourites

When it comes to betting on favourites, many punters struggle to consistently find value. That’s where experienced tipsters can make all the difference — especially those who focus exclusively on short odds betting.

🏆 Recommended Favourite-Focused Tipsters

Here are a few highly regarded services that have shown strong performance with short-odds bets:

1. First Class Racing

🔗 Full Review

• First Class Racing specialises in horse racing tips, often at short to medium odds, with an impressive strike rate of over 50%.
• Focuses on well-backed selections that are heavily fancied by the market, showing strong market confidence indicators.
• Achieved over 100 points profit in live trials and provides full reasoning behind each bet.
• A solid choice for those who prefer a steady, methodical approach to betting.

2. Blue Chip Naps

🔗 Full Review

• A horse racing tipster service that homes in on one high-confidence bet per day, often at short odds.
• Consistently delivers strong results with over 80 points profit and a strike rate of around 40%.
• Blue Chip Naps is perfect for punters who like focused, quality-over-quantity tips, with the potential to use in compound betting systems or dutch betting with favourites.

3. Scottish Confidential

🔗 Full Review

• A football tipster specialising in Scottish leagues, Scottish Confidential focuses heavily on home favourites and odds-on teams in undervalued markets.
• Uses insider knowledge, including team news, weather conditions, and betting patterns to gain an edge.
• Has delivered over 200 points profit and maintains a high win rate, making it ideal for those interested in football match favourites and low-risk betting strategies.

🎯 Why Choose a Favourite-Focused Tipster?

Unlike generalist tipsters who might swing for the fences with longshots, these tipsters focus on:

• High strike rates (often 60–80%)
• Low-risk betting strategy
• Carefully identifying value in short odds
• Avoiding overpriced favourites using sharp analysis

Their edge often comes from deep research, knowledge of niche markets, and the discipline to stick with favourites only when the value is there.

🧠 What Makes a Good Favourite Tipster?

• Solid ROI despite shorter prices
• Consistent profit over time, not just lucky runs
• Transparent bet histories
• Specialisation in sports like horse racing, tennis, or football favourites
• Ability to beat the closing line value regularly

📊 How to Use Tipsters Effectively

• Track performance using a spreadsheet or results tracker.
• Shop around for the best odds using odds comparison tools.
• Combine with your own knowledge for enhanced betting decisions.
• Consider using tips in accumulators with short odds or for hedge betting strategies.

Using tipsters like those above with proven track-records can be a good way to go about backing short-odds favourites. 

🔍 Examples of Potential Value Odds-On Bets

Here are some real-world examples where odds-on betting can offer value — if approached with the right strategy.

⚽ Football: Dominant Home Favourites

• A Premier League team like Manchester City priced at 1.40 at home to a bottom-tier team may seem too short.
• But if your model suggests they should be 1.25 (an implied win chance of 80%), there’s value in the 1.40 price (implied win chance ~71%).

🎾 Tennis: Top Seeds in Early Rounds

• Novak Djokovic in the first round of a Grand Slam might be 1.10 to beat a qualifier.
• Recreational punters may avoid it due to the low return — but historically, elite players win these matches over 90% of the time.

🏇 Horse Racing: Well-Tipped Odds-On Selections

• A horse trading at 4/5 with strong form, top jockey, and positive market support could still be undervalued if you price it at 1/2.

🏀 Basketball / NBA: Heavy Home Favourites

• In the NBA, home favourites with key players rested may drift in price, offering value for bettors who are quick to react to news.

🎯 Takeaway: Favourites Can Be Smart Bets

Don’t fall into the trap of thinking low odds mean poor value. The favourite–longshot bias has shown us time and again that betting markets reward consistency and rational analysis over emotion and excitement.

If you want entertainment, back a 66/1 outsider. But if you want profit, start looking seriously at odds-on bets — especially where market inefficiencies, public overreaction, or insider knowledge give you the edge.

When Odds-on Shots Might be Poor Value

While odds-on favourites often present value due to the favourite–longshot bias, there are instances where such favourites are poor value bets, especially when their odds shorten dramatically based on rumours or speculative information.​

📉 Example: Odds-On Favourite Based on Speculation

Consider a scenario where a horse initially priced at 20/1 sees its odds shorten to odds-on (e.g., 4/5) due to a surge of bets based on unverified rumours:​

• Initial Odds: 20/1 (5% implied probability)
• Shortened Odds: 4/5 (55.6% implied probability)​

In this case, the horse’s implied chance of winning has jumped from 5% to 55.6%, solely based on market movement without any substantial change in the horse’s form, health, or other fundamental factors. Such drastic shifts often indicate poor value, as the true probability of winning may not align with the new, shorter odds.​

🛑 Recognising Poor Value in Odds-On Favourites

To identify when an odds-on favourite might be poor value:

• Investigate the Cause of Odds Movement: Determine if the shortening odds are due to credible information (e.g., trainer insights, track conditions) or mere speculation.​
• Assess the Horse’s True Form: Ensure the horse’s recent performances and health justify the favouritism.​
• Compare Across Bookmakers: Use odds comparison tools to see if the price is consistent or an outlier.​

By critically evaluating these factors, bettors can avoid the trap of backing poor-value odds-on favourites driven by market hype rather than genuine winning potential.

Advantages of Odds On Betting

✅ Higher Probability of Winning

Backing a football match favourite at 1/2 gives you a statistically better chance of winning than a 10/1 underdog.

✅ Consistent Returns

While you won’t get rich off one bet, short odds betting can deliver consistent profit when executed properly.

✅ Lower Variance

Compared to big-odds punts, odds on bets reduce wild swings in your betting bankroll.

✅ Fits Certain Systems

Compound betting systems, dutch betting with favourites, and accumulators with short odds all use odds on bets as their foundation.

✅ Used by Pro Bettors

Many pros focus on betting on heavy favourites and even lay poor value underdogs on sports betting exchanges.

Disadvantages and Risks of Odds On Betting

❌ Small Profit Margins

At 1/3 odds, you need a 75% strike rate just to break even.

❌ One Loss Can Undo Progress

Lose one 1/5 bet and it wipes out multiple wins.

❌ Mental Discipline Needed

Seeing small wins stack up slowly can be frustrating — and can lead to chasing losses or over-staking.

❌ Overbetting Favourites

Many casual punters blindly back favourites without checking for value in short odds — a quick way to drain a bankroll.

Advanced Strategies for Odds On Betting

💼 Bankroll Management

Use level stakes or percentage staking. Since returns are small, discipline and patience are crucial.

💹 Compound Betting and Progression Systems

Letting your winnings ride can boost ROI, but beware the risk of a loss wiping out your gains. A progressive betting with favourites strategy should be used cautiously.

🔍 Finding Value in Odds On Markets

Use value bet finders, probability calculators, or follow sharp tipsters who specialise in tennis odds on betting or Asian handicap favourites.

🧠 Diversified Portfolio

Combine odds on bets with other selections in accumulators, or use them to hedge other wagers.

When To Avoid Odds On Bets

🚩 Signs of Poor Value

• Odds shortening rapidly without justification (e.g. injuries or hype)
• Favourites with inconsistent form or high-pressure scenarios
• Bookmakers offering different prices across the board

Use odds movement analysis and tools to avoid overpriced favourites.

❌ Poor Odds On Markets

• Cup matches with unpredictable lineups
• Lower leagues with minimal data
• Minimum odds requirement offers (check terms before using free bets)

Sometimes the smarter move is skipping the odds on bet altogether.

How To Compare Odds On Bets Across Bookmakers

🔧 Use Odds Comparison Tools

Sites like Oddschecker help you find the best odds guaranteed and spot true odds vs market odds in real time.

📈 Understand Fluctuations

Even a change from 4/5 to 5/6 may seem minor, but over hundreds of bets, it adds up — especially with compound betting.

💡 Case Study: Football Favourites

A team priced at 1.80 with Bookie A and 1.90 with Bookie B might not seem like a big deal. But if you place 100 bets at 1.90 instead of 1.80, your long-term profitability increases substantially.

Also consider betting exchanges, where commission can affect returns — but lay betting on favourites is an alternative angle if you think the favourite will falter.

Final Thoughts: Making the Most of Odds On Bets

Odds on bets may not be the flashiest, but they can be the smartest plays in a bettor’s arsenal. If you understand implied probability, track market confidence indicators, and compare prices across the board, there’s plenty of value to be found — especially with a backing the favourite strategy.

Just remember: even a 1/10 shot can lose. So treat each bet with care, manage your money, and always ask — is this short price value, or am I just backing a name?