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Taking a Look at Pick 6

Pick 6 is a horse racing wager where you pick the six winners in 6 consecutive races. As you might imagine, the chances of pickling six winners are fairly remote, but if you are successful then you will be in for a big pay-out.

The tote equivalent of the Pick 6 is the Scoop6. Again you must pick 6 winners, but there is also a place fund, so if all your horses are placed, then you will still end up with a pay-out. What is particularly attractive about a Scoop6 is that you can win substantially even with a small stake as low as £2.

Strategies and winning potential

So how do you go about increasing your chances of picking six winners? Naturally there is no real answer to that. It is extremely difficult to do. But let’s look at the odds of achieving it.

The first thing to consider is the bookmakers over-round, in other words the bookmaker’s margin. Bookmakers try to create a book with an over-round that generates a reasonable margin. For instance, their book might be such that for every £120 bet, they will pay out £100 no matter what the result.

Effectively that means that the quoted bookmaker odds understate your chances of winning the bet. For instance, if the bookmaker believes there to be a 40% chance of a particular horse winning its race then they are likely to start the odds at around 3/1. The odds change as the wagers come in and the bookmakers balance their book in real time. Of course, bookmakers often get things wrong, and one of the most exciting things about betting on horses is beating the bookmaker. It’s not easy to do as they pay great attention to form and often have spotters observing the horses in training.

So, given this what are your real chances of picking six winners? For simplicity, let’s say you back six horses each priced at 3/1. Ignoring the tote for the moment, if you went for a six horse accumulator and you bet £1 and you successfully picked six winners, then your total winnings would be:

(3 + ((4×3) + 4) + ((16×3) +16) + ((64×3)+64) + ((256×3) + 256)) x 4

= £4,096

Not a bad return for a £1 bet.

But your chances of winning it are fairly small. Ignoring the overbook, your odds would be

0.33 x 0.33 x 0.33 x 0.33 x 0.33 x 0.33

= 0.00137

In other words a little less than a 1 in 730 chance

But once you add in an overbook of 20% so that you are looking at the true probabilities as calculated by the bookmaker, your odds would be

0.27 x 0.27 x 0.27 x 0.27 x 0.27 x 0.27

= 0.00039

In other words a 1 in 2,584 chance.

Life Changing Win

Although a 6 horse accumulator is a fun bet, and if you do win you can win life changing amounts of money.

Most people who bet Pick 6 bet on the tote rather than a six horse accumulator. As there is a place fund, you have substantially better chances. Even so, come the last race with five in the bag things are going to get a little tense, so you might be advised to hedge your bets by also picking 4 and 5 winners.

Your winnings on the tote depend on how many other people make that bet and how many are successful, but huge winnings are a possibility; they just don’t come around that often.

Looking Beyond Pick 6

Winning the Pick 6 would be a life-changing event for most, but the chances of it are extremely remote – akin to winning the lottery.

But if you want to have a sure-fire way to make consistent profits month after month with very low risk, check out our number one recommended betting system here. 




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