Tom Nelson Horse Racing

Tom Nelson Racing – Final Review

We have completed our trial of Tom Nelson Racing and here are the final results:

 

Profit/loss:    +122 points 
Strike Rate:   32%
Bank Growth:   61%
Cost:   £1 for first month then £29.95/per month or £69.95/quarter 
ROI:   27%
Average number of tips:    5 per day
VERDICT:   PASSED
Rating:

 

You can view full results here.

 

Tom Nelson Racing Full Review

 

So we have come to the end of our trial of Tom Nelson Racing and we finished with a nice additional 22 points of profit to conclude the trial at +122 points in profit and +60 points at Betfair SP.

This has been one of those very smooth trials that went into profit early on and has just steadily built during the trial, just what we like to see.

Here are the results in graph format:

Tom Nelson Graph

As you can see, a nice jump at the beginning and then just solid, steady growth.

The return on investment was a very strong 27%, which when tipping at the volume that Tom does with so many bets a day, is quite a feat.  

The strike rate for the trial was 32%, which is also very healthy and means losing runs should be relatively short when following this service.

Overall it has been an excellent trial and this is definitely a product we would recommend.

However, as you will note from the results above, there was a huge difference between the results at advised prices and Betfair SP.

In fact, the results at advised prices were more than twice as good as those at Betfair SP – well beyond what we would normally expect. For other services we have reviewed like Master Racing Tipster and Big Race Bookie Busters, we saw slightly over a 30% difference, which we felt was acceptable. But a 100% difference is a worrying amount in our opinion.

So we decided to delve into the availability of prices a little further…

 

Price Availability

When we see such a big difference between the advised prices and Betfair SP, the question that it raises for us is whether the advised prices are obtainable. 

For a service to be practical to follow, you need to be able to get close to the advised prices. If there isn’t much difference between Betfair SP and advised prices, it means that everyone can get close to advised prices and the service is practical to follow.

If there is a big difference, it can mean one of two things: firstly, it could be a Hugh Taylor or Pricewise situation where prices are absolutely hammered as soon as the tips are released and the services aren’t really practical to follow – or it can mean that prices are fairly available, but that the tipster is good at identifying value so prices are steadily getting pushed in during the day in the run up to the race.

So what was the case here?

Well to answer that question, we decided to record a sample of over 100 bets (106 to be precise), taking the best available prices one hour after the tips were sent out.

Taking prices an hour after the tips are sent should give everyone enough time to back the selections and mean we are recording a fair price and not just grabbing the best prices in a mad dash as soon as the tips are released.

You can see the full results of our study here.

In summary, the average advised price was 3.75 and the average best price available one hour after tips were sent out was 3.66 – so just a 2.4% difference. 

This was very reassuring and would lead us to the conclusion that this service is practical to follow and you just need to take the prices within an hour of tips being sent out and you should be fine.

 

Service Breakdown

Ease of use: There are 5 bets per day on average so there is quite a bit of work to be done here. In accordance with our price analysis above, you need to back the tips with the bookies within an hour of tips being sent out to maximise the service. Simply backing at Betfair SP will mean missing a huge quantity of value. So we would say allocating 20 to 30 minutes per day to shopping around and finding the best odds is needed. 

Availability of prices: Please see the “Price Availability” analysis above. 

Strike rate: The strike rate for the trial was 32%, which was very impressive and made it comfortable to follow. 

Advised Betting Bank: We are pleased to see that a 200 betting bank is advised for following this service, which is much more sensible than one or two of the other Betting Gods services such as Big Race Bookie Busters. It was never threatened during the trial and looking at historical results, should be more than sufficient to withstand the drawdowns. 

Subscription costs: The subscription costs are £1 for the first month then £29.95/per month or £69.95/quarter – which are pretty reasonable for a service that has amassed over 500 points profit in around 18 months.

 

OVERALL VERDICT: PASSED 

It has been a very impressive trial for Tom Nelson Racing and we are happy to thoroughly recommend this service.

The only caveat is that you should able to back the tips within an hour of them being sent out – tips are normally sent out between 5 and 6pm UK time. 

With over 500 points profit amassed in just over 18 months, this is one of the top tipsters we have reviewed so far and well worth adding to your portfolio.

You can get Tom Nelson Racing here.

 

 

 

 

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Tom Nelson Racing – Results Update

6th November 2015

More excellence from Tom Nelson, who has added more profit to his totals since our last update a couple of weeks ago.

He has added another 28 points profit at advised prices taking him to over 100 points profit overall for our trial, which is very impressive stuff.

You can view full results here.

However, we are noticing quite a significant difference opening up between the advised prices and the Betfair SP. Whilst at advised prices Tom has made 28 points profit since out last update, at Betfair SP he has made just 5 points.

That puts him up to 62 points profit at Betfair SP, which is still very impressive, but is quite a significant difference between that the advised prices, equating to a 40% difference.

So it is something to be aware of anyway. The prices given in the e-mails do seem quite obtainable, but we will be keeping a closer eye on this for the remainder of the trial. 

In the meantime you can check out Tom Nelson Racing here.

 

 

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Tom Nelson Racing – Results Update

22nd October 2015

Tom Nelson continues his creditable start to our trial with a further 16 points profit at advised prices and 10 points at Betfair SP.

That brings the totals to the trial so far to:

Advised prices: +76 points

Betfair SP: +57 points

You can view full results here. 

Interestingly Tom tips at a whole range of prices, everything from very short odds like 1.1 up to around the 12/1 mark. I suppose the old adage that something can be value at any price, not just long shots, applies here.

We remarked last time that the staking had gone down from 5-6 points per bet to more like 1-2 points. Well now it is somewhere in between the two! 

Not quite sure what to make of the staking, I suppose much like the prices, Tom takes quite a varied approach to his betting.

Well so far it is working. Let’s see if it continues for the remainder of the trial.

In the meantime, you can check out Tom Nelson Racing here.

 

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Tom Nelson Racing – Results Update

29th September 2015

It’s been an excellent start to our trial of Tom Nelson Racing. After three weeks he is 60 points up at advised prices and 46 points up at Betfair SP.

You can view full results here. 

Staking is quite high however, so it is perhaps not quite as good as it sounds. At the start of the trial there were regular 5 and 6 point bets, although over the last week or so staking has been much lower with just 1-2 point bets in general.

It will be interesting to see if this is a change in staking approach or just a quiet period.

Either way though it has been a very positive start and long may it continue.

Back soon with more updates.

 

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Tom Nelson Racing – New Review

9th September 2015

Today we are starting a new trial of horse racing tipster Tom Nelson Racing from the Betting Gods stable.

Tom has been tipping for just over a year and in that time has produced over 400 points profit – not too shabby! 

With a high strike rate of 37%, hopefully losing runs shouldn’t be too bad with this service. There are about 60-70 bets per month, so we are looking at 2-3 per day on average.

The return on investment stands at 8.39%, which isn’t as high as some of the other Betting Gods services, but it looks like Mr Nelson focuses more on a good turnover and strike rate to amass his profits. 

Anyway, we will run our normal three month trial to see how this one performs. 

In the meantime you can check out Tom Nelson Racing here. 

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