We were recently contacted about a very interesting looking new betting product called Trademate Sports so decided to check it out.
Trademate Sports is a new tool that is causing quite a stir in the betting markets. It calculates the true odds of a sports event and signals when the bookies have made a mistake, enabling you to exploit such situations.
The platform was co-founded by Jonas Gjelstad, a professional sports bettor and poker player who has been making money from his betting since leaving school. Jonas achieved the incredible feat of growing his sports betting bankroll from $10,000 to $1 million.
There is a documentary series about Jonas on Youtube, where you can find out more about his exploits:
Jonas’s achievements include:
- – 3rd place in 2017 Caribbean Poker Party Festival winning $450.000
- – Won the largest pot Joe Ingram ever played of $91.200
- – Won the 2016 Norwegian No-Limit Holdem HeadsUp Poker Championship
So clearly the guy knows what he is doing when it comes to betting. Certainly the overall results for the software published on the Trademate website look impressive:
How Trademate Sports Finds Its Edge
The best and sharpest bookmakers in the world are purely market driven, which means that when enough money is put on one of the sides, those odds will decrease while the other one increases.
This means the odds are ultimately decided by liquidity in the market. When the amount of money going through is high enough – the odds are as close to perfect as it will be.
By looking at the odds of these high liquidity markets, one can acquire the knowledge of hundreds of thousands of people.
Not many bookmakers can pull this off, because they don’t have a large enough customer base makings things too uncertain. The ones that can are mostly based in Asia.
So what Trademate do is use the “sharper” bookies as true odds and find outliers on the “softs” – i.e. those bookmakers that are not so efficient. They also use the sharps against each other in the pro version of their software.
For example, let’s say there was a match between Manchester Utd and Arsenal in the FA Cup. The odds on Man Utd might be 1.9 in the days before the game.
But then the team news gets announced and it turns out that Arsenal are playing their “kids” and so the odds on Man Utd crash to 1.5 within minutes following the team announcement on the high liquidity bookies. But a number of the European bookies don’t change their odds so quickly and you can still get around 1.9, thus representing excellent value.
So what Trademate Sports does is identify hundreds of these opportunities where there is a difference between the “sharp” bookies (normally those in Asia) and the “softs” (the European ones) in real time for you to exploit.
By taking an edge of even just 1% or 2% over and over again hundreds of times you will be continually building your advantage over the bookies and be more likely to end in profit. That is what value betting is all about.
The Stats for Trademate Sports
The stats for Trademate Sports are very impressive, with over €1.4m profit made overall amongst their community of users, with an average return on investment of 2.19%.
That comes for a total of nearly a million trades, so a massive sample size on which to base the results.
Just in the last 30 days the profits stand at over €240,000, which is pretty impressive stuff.
They also started running a bot which tracked live bets from August 2017 and started with a betting bank of $2,000. Below is a graph of how the bot has got on:
So as you can see, very decent profit growth there of over 163%.
How the Tradmate Platform Operates
When you log in to the Trademate platform you will get a dashboard on your home screen like this:
This gives you an overall picture of how you are doing in terms of fund growth, total profit, return on investment (ROI) and the number of bets you have taken.
You can also check your settings, visit the help centre and see your results in graph format, plus various features on the left sidebar, which we will describe below.
Before you start placing bets, it would be advisable to adjust your settings so that you have appropriate parameters for your selections. There is a blog post here on the settings used by the Trademate Sports professionals, which could be good ones to follow. There are also videos on the site with contain further information about parameters.
When you come to choose your settings, the page will look something like this:
So you can adjust everything from the bookies monitored (in case you no longer have accounts with some etc), the sports to follow, odds type, odds range, the edge you are prepared to accept, the time before the game and so on.
Once you have selected your parameters and are happy with everything, it is time to go on and have a look at the Game Feed, which shows you all the matches for the day in each sport, which ones are live and which are to come, with the timings, as below:
Then you can click on “Tradefeed” in the left sidebar and that will take you through to the current bets that fit your criteria.
At the time of writing, these are the current bets to be backed with the Trademate software:
There are currently quite a few different options across different sports, so a good deal of action available.
How many selections there are at any given time will depend to a large extent on how widely you set your parameters – and of course how much sport there is on at the current time.
Now let’s say we wanted to place the bets. The first selection on the list is Alba Berlin vs Bayern Munich at Betfair Sportsbook.
So we click on this selection and it brings up the betslip:
The betslip includes the selection, the odds, the calculated edge according to the Trademate software and the recommended staking.
A new feature they have added recently is the “Take me to trade” button at the bottom of the betslip in green.
This was a recommendation from us at Honest Betting Reviews so we are really pleased to see this added as it greatly reduces the time needed to place all the bets.
So on this one for example, we can click on the green button and it takes us through to the actual selection on Betfair Sportsbook, as you can see here:
So that’s really cool and well done to the Trademate team for setting that up. Not all bookies have this option sadly but it is good to see it for a number of them for the time being and hopefully the others will allow it in due course.
Anyway, then you just go and place the bet and you are done. If you want for Trademate Sports to keep track of all your bets you can do so by clicking on “Register Trade” on the blue button on the betslip – which is obviously a good idea to do.
You can come back later and check all your results by clicking on the “My Trades” on the left sidebar:
So there you can see all your bets, whether they won or lost and the returns.
This may seem like a lot to take in at the moment, but rest assured it’s actually quite simple when you come to use it yourself. Basically you just need to see what bets the software recommends, then go and place them. The software will track all the results (presuming you ask it to) so you will know exactly where you are as you go along.
Does It Work?
Of course the $64,000 question is whether Trademate Sports actually works. Having taken a detailed look at the software, we are in no doubt that the underlying principles are sound and they have identified a method with an edge that will identify value bets in the long run.
Clearly the betting markets are dictated to a large extent by the amount of money that comes in for various selections, with some bookies having vastly bigger customer bases and volumes of bets coming in, thus meaning they are more accurately capturing market sentiment. These bookies are largely based in Asia and don’t tend to have strict stake limitations like most European bookies. They are referred to as the “sharps.”
It is worth recognising that everyone’s results will be different when using the software, depending on their parameters, when they trade, which games/sports they follow, which bookies they have accounts with etc.
So our own results wouldn’t represent what anyone would get, but we will do an experiment to gather a sample of bets and will report back on that soon so you can get a sense of how well the software has worked for us. Please stay tuned for that.
What About Bookie Account Limitations?
Inevitably there will be questions over account limitations with the bookies when using this software. We asked that question to CEO Marius Norheim and here is what he said:
“Anyone who wins at the soft bookies over time will eventually get limited regardless of their methods. So it is a matter of extracting as much value as possible before that happens. The bookies do know where their odds are relative to the market, as the majority of them use services like sportradar for comparison. A major pro with value betting over arbitrage betting is that it is tougher to spot, because it only requires 1 side of a bet to be an outlier versus 2 or 3 for an arbitrage (E.g. Totals 2, 1×2 3 outcomes). Thus it is harder to find value bettors.
In my experience sticking to the larger leagues (listed as recommended) helps a lot in making accounts last longer. I got limited on Unibet, Marathon, Paddy and a couple more super fast in the early days when I bet on everything from the EPL to Bulgarian Basketball. A second thing I try to do is to keep my bets on the really good bookies to competitions which makes sense for that bookie. E.g. on betfair and will hill I only take UK competitions + CL, EL, NBA. While on bookies where I don’t get as many edges such as Nordicbet, I take the bets on the Belgian League etc.”
That makes a lot of sense really and certainly we would agree that this strategy should last a good deal longer than arbing or matched betting.
The software doesn’t use the exchanges as such – although of course there would be nothing stopping you from checking the exchanges on some of the bets to see if equivalent (or better) odds are available.
Conclusion – Trademate Sports
Trademate Sports looks like a thoroughly professional package to us, with clearly a lot of work going into it. The underlying logic is sound and we can see that this is very likely to generate a long-term profit for its users.
We are really impressed with the betslip click-through option, which significantly reduces the amount of time needed to place the bets.
We kind of see Trademate Sports as a form of evolution from matched betting and arbing towards something that is more sustainable in the long term, whilst still finding value bets.
This could well be the future of betting and we are keen to see how it performs over the long run. We will report back with the results of our own testing period to give you an idea of how we have got on with it.