Best Bets for the Open Championship

As the golfing world eagerly anticipates the 2024 Open Championship at Royal Troon, golf fans are buzzing with predictions and speculation.

Known for its challenging links and unpredictable weather, Royal Troon is a venue where only the most versatile and resilient golfers thrive.

This year’s championship promises to be an exciting showcase of skill and strategy, with a field brimming with talent and ambition.

In this article, we delve into the top contenders and dark horses, offering our best bets for who might lift the Claret Jug and etch their name into golfing history.

 

Taking a Look at the Course – Royal Troon

A key part to determining who will capture the Claret Jug is figuring out who will be suited by the course and conditions players will face. 

Links golf presents a unique test and is unlike anything the players regularly face week-in, week-out on the tour.

Royal Troon Golf Club, a historic venue on Scotland’s rugged Ayrshire coast, is renowned for its challenging layout and demanding conditions.

The course is known for its narrow fairways, deep bunkers, and the infamous “Postage Stamp” eighth hole, the shortest yet one of the most treacherous par-threes in major championship golf.

Troon has been lengthened by 195 yards since it was last used for an Open in 2016 and now measures 7,385 yards from the back tees. That makes it the second-longest course on the Open rota, behind only Carnoustie. 

The card of the course for this year’s championship looks like this: 

 

Hole	Par	Yardage
1	4	366
2	4	389
3	4	376
4	5	599
5	3	220
6	5	623
7	4	403
8	3	123
9	4	440
OUT	36	3539
10	4	450
11	4	498
12	4	451
13	4	473
14	3	200
15	4	502
16	5	572
17	3	242
18	4	458
IN	35	3846
TOTAL	71	7385

The extended layout includes the longest hole in Open history, the par 5 sixth hole stretching out to 623 yards off the tips. 

The course should not be overly long for today’s players however, who are used to tests well over 7,500 yards in length. 

What will be of a greater worry to the players will is the wind, which is always a significant factor at Troon, with gusts off the Firth of Clyde capable of turning an easy hole into a nightmare.

Players will need precision, adaptability, and a robust short game to navigate the course successfully.

The ever-changing weather can make each round a unique test, ensuring that only the most skilled and strategic golfers will excel.

With heavy rain hitting Britain in Spring and early Summer the rough is expected to be deep at Troon this year.

That means accuracy – and a versatile short-game to deal with the variety of shots players will face when they miss the greens – are the key assets to look for in a potential champion. In addition to an ability to handle the wind of course!

 

Past Champions and Winning Scores at Troon

To get a clearer idea of who might triumph this time, it is worth looking at past champions at Troon to see what type of player has prospered at the course before. 

We can also get an idea of how difficult Troon tends to play by looking at the winning scores of past champions. 

The past winners and their scores are as follows:

• 2016: Henrik Stenson – 20-under-par, 264
• 2004: Todd Hamilton – 10-under-par, 274
• 1997: Justin Leonard – 12-under-par, 272
• 1982: Tom Watson – 4-under-par, 280
• 1973: Tom Weiskopf – 12-under-par, 276
• 1962: Arnold Palmer – 276 (aggregate score)

The most recent champion, Henrik Stenson, won in 2016 with a record-breaking score of 20-under-par 264, a performance that included a final-round duel with Phil Mickelson.

Those two were an astonishing 11 shots clear of the rest of the field, an extraordinary breakaway performance.

So it may not be that the course was “easy” that year as such – rather that Stenson and Mickelson performed at an exceptionally high level. 

Scores have generally been well under par though, so the course could be regarded as a good test, but score-able. 

Looking at the profile of past champions, we see that players like Leonard and Hamilton were not long hitters and though Stenson hit the ball a good distance, was not the longest of his generation either (often hitting a 3-wood off the tee for accuracy). 

We are not necessarily looking for a big hitter then, rather an accurate iron-player which certainly the likes of Tom Watson, Leonard and Stenson were known for.

 

Open Championship Best Bets

Okay now we’ve taken a look at the course and the profile of past champions, let’s get on to looking at the best bets for this year’s Open Championship.

The good news for punters is that bookies normally offer very generous terms for the Open, with 8, 10 or even 12 places being offered for each-way bets by certain bookies in the week of the event (i.e. Mon-Weds of Open week).

Please note all odds quoted are correct at the time of writing and are subject to change.

 

Xander Schauffele

• Open record: T20-T2-T41-T26-T15-T17
• Odds: 16/1
• Major wins: USPGA 2024

Our first pick is American Xander Schauffele at 16/1. 

Having recently secured his first major victory at the USPGA Championship in May, Xander Schauffele should enter the Open at Troon with high confidence.

With the pressure of winning his first major now behind him – and marking his first title in two years – the unpretentious Californian will be liberated to chase more major titles.

Schauffele’s Open record is notable, with six cuts made out of six attempts, and a second-place finish behind Francesco Molinari at Carnoustie in 2018, demonstrating his ability to handle the toughest links conditions.

His exceptional ball-striking makes him a strong contender on any golf course, and his skill in flighting the ball and executing a variety of shots prepares him well for the strong winds often encountered on links courses.

In addition to his impressive Open record, the Californian also won the Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club in 2022.

With seven additional PGA Tour victories, an Olympic Gold medal, and wins in both the Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup, Schauffele has already amassed a highly impressive resume at just 30 years old.

His performance in 2024 has been stellar as well, with runner-up finishes at the Wells Fargo Championship and Players Championship, a third-place at the American Express, and a fourth-place at the Genesis, complementing his USPGA win.

In total, the American has secured ten top-ten finishes in fourteen PGA Tour starts this season, displaying remarkable consistency.

At a general price of 16/1 at the time of writing, many will view Schauffele as a valuable each-way bet for this year’s Open.

 

Viktor Hovland

• Open record: T12-T4-T13
• Odds: 18/1
• Major wins: none

Following a poor start to the year after ditching his coach Joe Mayo, Norwegian superstar Viktor Hovland has bounced back to form after reuniting with Mayo, with a third place finish at the PGA Championship followed by 15th at the Memorial. 

Viktor Hovland with driver off the deck. 🙌

Check out the camera angle. 😳#QuickHits pic.twitter.com/MN8uvpt0gd

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 27, 2020

His Open record is promising, with three top-15 finishes in three starts, including a fourth-place finish at St Andrews two years ago.

Hovland has been on the verge of a major breakthrough for some time now, with a second and third place at the USPGA, and a seventh place at the Masters, complementing his strong Open performances.

Having secured significant titles in his career, including the Memorial Tournament, BMW Championship, Tour Championship, and Dubai Desert Classic, the 26-year-old has proven he can close the deal when in contention at big events.

Therefore it wouldn’t be surprising to see him add a Claret Jug to his growing list of accomplishments.

If he can recapture the red-hot form that saw him win the FedEx Cup and play a starring role for Europe at the Ryder Cup last year, Hovland would be a tough man to beat. The 18/1 available for him looks like value. 

 

Collin Morikawa

• Open record: 1-MC-MC
• Odds: 25/1
• Major wins: 2020 PGA, 2021 Open

Collin Morikawa has already demonstrated his ability to perform under the intense pressure of major championships.

His victory at the 2020 PGA Championship, where he displayed remarkable composure and skill, showcased his talent on the biggest stage.

Additionally, his win at the 2021 Open Championship at Royal St. George’s further solidified his reputation as a major tournament player.

Morikawa’s ability to win major titles early in his career speaks volumes about his mental fortitude and skillset.

One of the critical challenges of the Open Championship is the unique demands of links golf, which requires players to adapt to varying wind conditions, firm turf, and creative shot-making.

Morikawa’s victory at Royal St. George’s demonstrated his adeptness at handling these conditions.

His superb iron-play and clutch putting led him to victory back at the Kent links and he is getting back to the kind of form that led him to that triumph. 

So far in 2024 he has notched a fifth place in the Sentry, third at the Masters, ninth at the RBC Heritage, fourth at the PGA Championship, fourth at the Charles Schwab Challenge and second at the Memorial. 

His recent performances indicate that he is peaking for the big events, which is crucial for success in major tournaments.

If his putter had behaved on Sundays, Morikawa would surely be a multiple winner this season. He just needs it to do so at Troon and he will surely have a great chance on his current form at odds of 25/1. 

 

 

Tommy Fleetwood

• Open record: MC-MC-MC-T27-T12-2-T33-T4-T10
• Odds: 25/1
• Major wins: none

There would be few more popular winners of the Claret Jug than Tommy Fleetwood. 

The 33 year-old’s performances in past Open Championships highlights his ability to excel in this unique tournament.

With multiple top-10 finishes, including a runner-up position at Royal Portrush in 2019, a twelth in 2018, fourth place in 2022 and tenth last year, the Englishman has demonstrated his capability to compete at the highest level in links golf.

Growing up and playing extensively in the UK has given Fleetwood a deep understanding of links golf.

His experience with the unpredictable weather, firm fairways, and creative shot-making required on links courses gives him an edge over many of his competitors. Fleetwood’s ability to manage his game in windy conditions and on firm, fast greens makes him particularly well-suited for the Open Championship.

Fleetwood can also expect to enjoy strong support from the home crowd, which can provide a significant boost. 

In terms of his 2024 form, has produced strong performances including a win at the Dubai Invitational at the start of the year, seventh at the Valero Texas Open, third at the Masters and thirteenth at the Wells Fargo. 

With a tendency to raise his game for the majors – evidenced by three top-5s at the US Open in addition to his strong Open record – Fleetwood looks a tempting price to finally grab a piece of major glory at 25/1.

 

 

Min Woo Lee

• Open record: MC-T21-T41
• Odds: 50/1
• Major wins: none

One of the most exciting young prospects in men’s golf is Australian Min Woo Lee. 

Lee has shown a knack for performing well on links courses, which is vital for the Open Championship.

His strong showing at the Scottish Open, where he claimed victory in 2021, demonstrates his capability to handle the unique demands of links golf.

Lee has only played in three Opens, with a missed cut on his first visit followed by a 21st and 41st placed finish. 

However, with a fifth at the US Open and a 14th at the Masters in his young career he is already getting to grips with the major championships.  

With a second place finish at the Cognizant Classic earlier in 2024 and a run of four top-30 finishes lately, his form has been solid rather than spectacular this year. 

It is his prodigious talent and a previous win in Scotland however that mark Min Woo Lee as a pick at odds of 50/1. 

 

 

Robert MacIntyre

• Open record: T6-T8-T34-T71
• Odds: 66/1
• Major wins: none

Scotland has not had a winner of the Open Championship this century but one man who could put that right is Oban’s Robert MacIntyre. 

Following a hugely emotional win at the Canadian Open with his dad on the bag, “Bob Mac” as he is known will be full of confidence heading to the year’s final major. 

He narrowly missed out on winning the Scottish Open last year after Rory McIlroy produced two miracle shots on 17 & 18 to deny him. MacIntyre showed his mettle with an excellent birdie of his own on the treacherous 18th hole however. 

The Scot is very familiar with links golf having grown up playing it, which is borne out by two top-ten finishes at the Open from five visits.

In addition to his win at the Canadian Open, MacIntyre has also notched an 8th place at the PGA, 8th at the Zurich Classic alongside Thomas Detry, 6th at the Mexico Open and 13th at the Myrtle Beach Classic so far this season. 

Having performed commendably at the Ryder Cup the Scot has shown he can deal with the most intense of pressure, although landing the Open in his own country would be another thing altogether!

However, at odds of 66/1 he represents strong value to perform well on a course and in conditions that should suit him very well.