Betting on Tennis for a Living: Secrets From the Pros
Betting on tennis for a living might sound like a dream job—watching exciting matches, analysing players, and making money while you’re at it.
However, it’s not as easy as it seems. Becoming a professional tennis bettor requires skill, discipline, and a strong understanding of the game and its betting markets.
In this guide, we’ll explore how betting on tennis for a living works, the strategies involved, and how you can potentially turn a passion for tennis into a steady income stream.
Can You Really Make a Living Betting on Tennis?
The short answer is yes—there are people who successfully make a living betting on tennis, which proves that it’s possible.
Professionals like Paul Shires of Tennis Profits and author and pro bettor Dan Weston have turned tennis betting into a full-time career, and their success demonstrates that, with the right approach, it is an achievable living.
However, it’s important to note that this isn’t a get-rich-quick scheme. Like any job, it requires dedication, knowledge, and a significant amount of hard work.
And it is important to bear in mind that 98% of gamblers lose money overall. The saying “You never see a poor bookie” exists for a reason – it is a very tough sphere to succeed in.
Ultimately only a select few have managed to forge a career betting on tennis.
Pro tennis bettors like Paul Shires and Dan Weston didn’t just stumble into success; they approach tennis betting as a business.
They’ve spent years honing their strategies, analyzing matches, studying player statistics, and managing their bankrolls with discipline.
They treat betting like any other full-time job, putting in the hours to research, plan, and execute their bets methodically.
If you’re thinking about following in their footsteps, be prepared to invest time and effort. You’ll need to develop a deep understanding of tennis, learn how to spot value in odds, and, most importantly, be disciplined in how you manage your bankroll.
In other words if you want to find yourself joining the ranks of professionals like Shires and Weston, you will need to treat it as a career rather than just a hobby.
How Much Money Can You Make Betting on Tennis for a Living?
The question of how much you can make betting on tennis is a bit like asking, “How long is a piece of string?”
The answer depends on several factors: the size of your bankroll, the amount you bet per match, the frequency of your bets, and how successful your strategy is.
At the top end of sports betting, some professional gamblers have made millions.
However, these are often individuals with huge bankrolls, betting large amounts and operating with highly sophisticated strategies.
While it’s certainly possible to earn substantial sums from tennis betting, especially for those at the very top, it’s important to approach the idea with realistic expectations.
For most people starting out, a more reasonable goal would be to aim to cover your monthly outgoings, then progress to earning enough to match an average salary.
If you can generate consistent profits that cover living expenses and allow you to grow your bankroll, that’s a significant achievement.
Over time, as your experience grows and your bankroll increases, so too can your potential earnings. But success in this field is gradual, and it requires patience, discipline, and a commitment to continually improving your betting approach.
Remember, the amount you can make is closely tied to how much you risk per bet.
The larger your bankroll, the more you can wager, and the greater your potential returns. But this also comes with more significant risks.
Early on, your goal should be to build your bankroll sustainably and carefully. As your betting skills improve and your knowledge of tennis deepens, you can look to increase your stake sizes gradually and maximize your profits.
In short, while the dream of big wins and millionaire status is appealing, the reality for most successful tennis bettors is that, initially, making a consistent profit – even a small one – is an impressive achievement in itself.
What Does it Take to Become a Professional Tennis Bettor?
Becoming a professional tennis bettor requires much more than just a casual interest in the sport. It involves a combination of deep statistical knowledge, discipline, and a methodical approach to betting.
A great example of this is Dan Weston, a well-known professional tennis bettor who has shared insights in a revealing interview into what it takes to succeed in this field.
The aspects Mr Weston emphasised as key to his success as a pro better include:
- Statistical Approach
Dan stresses the importance of data analysis. Focus on key stats like serve percentages and break-point conversions. Successful betting relies on thorough research and understanding player data to spot value. - Discipline and Bankroll Management
Treat your bankroll like a business fund. Weston advises strict wager limits to avoid overbetting and manage risk, emphasizing long-term profit over individual wins. - Emotional Control
Weston highlights the need for emotional discipline. Avoid letting emotions drive your decisions, whether dealing with losses or wins, to maintain a rational betting approach. - Dedication and Time Investment
Treat betting as a full-time job. Weston invests hours in match analysis and market trends. Staying dedicated helps adapt to evolving markets and spot new opportunities. - In-Play Betting Skills
Professionals excel in live betting by watching matches closely and understanding momentum shifts. Weston recommends leveraging insights into player behavior to make profitable in-play bets. - Understanding the Market
Know how betting markets work. Weston advises comparing odds across bookmakers and focusing on niche markets, like smaller tournaments, for better value.
In summary, Dan Weston’s approach to tennis betting emphasizes the combination of rigorous data analysis, disciplined bankroll management, emotional control, dedicated time investment, in-play betting skills, and a deep understanding of market dynamics to achieve long-term success.
Developing a Winning Tennis Betting Strategy
Okay so we’ve heard from a pro tennis bettor about the kind of tools and skills you need to become a professional, but to consistently make money betting on tennis, you need some strategies that can regularly identify value.
If you don’t have profitable strategies, then it doesn’t matter how good your mindset is or how good you are at managing your bankroll.
Let’s look at some of the strategies used by successful tennis bettors.
1. Pre-Match Value Betting
Value betting is the practice of finding odds that are higher than the true probability of an event occurring.
For example, if you believe a player has a 60% chance of winning a match, but the bookmaker’s odds reflect only a 50% chance, then you’ve found a value bet.
To consistently find value bets, you need to have a better understanding of the sport and players than the bookmakers.
This means doing in-depth research on players, their form, and match conditions.
Tennis odds are often influenced by factors like player ranking and recent results, but sharp bettors can find value by looking deeper into underlying factors such as playing style, fatigue, or recent injuries.
An alternative to finding value in the tennis markets is to use automated software and AI, which is increasingly where shrewd tennis bettors are moving to.
One platform that uses artificial intelligence algorithms to find value is WinnerOdds. It estimates the true probabilities of tennis matches before bookmakers release their odds.
Their system relies on a vast database containing over one million matches, fifty thousands tennis players, and odds from 69 different bookmakers, with around 26 million stored odds.
Once bookmakers publish their odds, WinnerOdds compares them with their own calculated probabilities. They flag opportunities where the bookmakers’ odds exceed their estimated odds, indicating a value bet.
Additionally, they provide recommendations on the exact amount to wager, factoring in your bankroll and the current advantage against the specific bookmaker.
To date, WinnerOdds’ tennis platform has generated over 15,600 points in profit in total from every bet advised, equivalent to £156,000 with stakes of £10 per point.
WinnerOdds tennis P/L graph, to £10/€10 stakes
That has been achieved with a win rate of 61% and a return on investment (ROI) of 8.3%.
So if you want to find value bets but don’t have the time to spend hours analysing head-to-head records, form, surface suitability etc then Winner Odds‘ software is a good option.
2. Betting and Trading In-Play
In-play tennis betting is one of the most dynamic and potentially profitable strategies for bettors and traders.
Unlike pre-match betting, where you lock in your bets before the game begins, in-play betting allows you to place bets while the match unfolds, giving you the chance to react to changing circumstances and momentum shifts.
This real-time engagement makes tennis ideal for in-play strategies, as momentum can swing quickly in this sport.
Key In-Play Strategies
Some examples in in-play strategies you can use include:
- Exploiting Momentum Shifts
Tennis matches are often decided by small shifts in momentum—one break of serve or a key point won under pressure. In-play bettors can capitalize on these moments by identifying when a player is gaining or losing confidence. For example, if a player breaks their opponent’s serve, the odds may shift significantly in their favour. However, if you believe the opposing player has a strong chance of breaking back, this could be a great time to place a bet on them, as the odds will likely be inflated. - Betting on Tiebreaks
Tiebreaks are high-pressure situations where players’ psychological resilience and serve reliability are tested. In-play bettors can assess how a player has performed under pressure in previous matches and make educated bets based on those patterns. Betting during tiebreaks is especially effective because odds can fluctuate quickly, and the right bet can yield large returns in a short amount of time. - Betting on Fatigue or Injuries
As matches go on, especially in longer tournaments or five-set matches, players can tire or suffer minor injuries. Observing signs of fatigue or discomfort in a player and betting against them in-play can be a good strategy. For example, if a player appears to be struggling physically but still holds the lead, the odds may not yet reflect their deteriorating condition, providing an opportunity to place a value bet.
If you are looking to bet and trade in-play, then a platform like Tennis Profits can be very helpful in providing the tools you need to understand players’ strengths and weaknesses and find the right in-play opportunities.
The platform provides features including:
- Player statistics of the top 900 male and female players
- In-depth trading stats for all ATP, WTA, ITF and Challenger matches
- A portfolio of tried-and-tested tennis trading strategies
- Support to help you succeed as a tennis trader.
In summary, with the right knowledge and tools—like those provided by Tennis Profits—in-play betting on tennis can be a highly effective strategy.
By keeping a close eye on the match’s flow, analyzing live statistics, and responding to momentum shifts, you can take advantage of constantly changing odds to find value and profit from tennis betting.
3. Betting on Lesser-Known Tournaments
While most people bet on high-profile tournaments like Wimbledon or the Australian Open, seasoned bettors often focus on smaller events.
Lower-tier tournaments, such as ATP 250s or Challenger events, often have less betting attention, meaning odds may not be as sharp.
This creates opportunities for bettors with a deep knowledge of the sport to find value.
The key here is to stay informed about up-and-coming players and those who might be underrated by bookmakers.
Many young players make their breakthroughs at smaller tournaments, and savvy bettors can take advantage of these trends before the general public catches on.
Why Tennis is One of the Best Sports to Bet On
Tennis offers several unique advantages that make it an appealing sport for bettors.
Whether you’re new to tennis betting or looking to take it more seriously, here’s why tennis stands out from other sports when it comes to betting potential:
1. Low Over-Round with the Bookmakers
The over-round, or margin, is the percentage a bookmaker builds into the odds to ensure a profit.
Tennis often has a lower over-round compared to other sports like football or horse racing, meaning bettors get fairer odds. In theory this should make it easier to profit from.
The two-player dynamic of tennis matches simplifies the odds structure, making it easier to find value bets.
2. High Liquidity of Markets
Tennis is one of the most popular sports globally, with massive tournaments like Wimbledon, the US Open, and Roland Garros attracting millions of viewers and bettors.
This popularity translates into high liquidity in betting markets, especially on exchanges like Betfair.
High liquidity means that large sums of money are wagered on matches, ensuring that you can place substantial bets without drastically moving the odds and obtain value.
It also means you can easily enter and exit in-play bets, making it easier to trade and exploit shifts in momentum.
3. Frequency of Matches
One of the biggest advantages of betting on tennis is the sheer volume of matches. The tennis calendar runs nearly year-round, with ATP, WTA, and Challenger tournaments taking place almost every week.
For a bettor, this constant stream of matches provides plenty of opportunities to apply your strategies and find profitable bets, making tennis one of the most consistent sports for professional betting.
4. Availability of Stats
Tennis is a sport that lends itself well to statistical analysis. Virtually every aspect of a player’s game is tracked and measured, from first serve percentages to break point conversions and unforced errors.
This wealth of data allows bettors to make informed decisions rather than relying on gut feeling or subjective analysis.
There are numerous websites – like the official ATP and WTA sites, as well as stats sites like Flashscore and Tennis Insight – that provide detailed stats on every match and player, helping bettors to spot trends, understand matchups, and exploit inefficiencies in the odds.
Moreover, many bettors look at more nuanced stats like service holds, return games won, and player performance in tie-breaks or pressure situations.
These statistics can be used to create a strong foundation for pre-match betting and also for in-play bets, where the match flow might change depending on how a player is performing relative to their usual stats.
5. Players Specializing in Different Surfaces
Tennis is unique in that it’s played on different surfaces—hard courts, grass, clay, and even indoor courts—each of which can dramatically affect player performance.
Unlike other sports where the playing field is more uniform, tennis players often specialize in certain surfaces. For example, Rafael Nadal was renowned for his dominance on clay, while Roger Federer excelled on grass.
This specialization creates interesting betting dynamics. Some players may struggle on certain surfaces despite being highly ranked overall, which can lead to opportunities for value betting.
Bettors who closely follow player performance on different surfaces can often find favorable odds that don’t necessarily reflect the true likelihood of a player winning on a particular surface.
This adds another layer of depth to tennis betting and provides an edge for bettors who are willing to dig into the details.
Final Thoughts
Betting on tennis for a living is possible, but it’s not easy. It requires a deep understanding of the sport, careful analysis of statistics, disciplined bankroll management, and a well-thought-out strategy.
While the road to success can be challenging, those who are willing to put in the time and effort can turn their passion for tennis into a profitable venture.
Like any profession, betting on tennis requires constant learning and adaptation.
The betting markets are always evolving, and staying ahead of the curve is key to maintaining profitability over the long term.
If you’re ready to take the plunge, remember that patience and discipline are your best friends on this journey.
Most of all, please remember to always gamble responsibly and only risk money you can afford to lose.
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