Set Spread in Tennis Betting: A Complete Guide

Tennis is one of the most popular sports to bet on, with loads of markets to choose from. The set spread is a favourite among experienced punters looking for specialist markets to bet on.

But what does “set spread” mean in tennis betting and how can you use it to your advantage?

In this guide we’ll cover everything you need to know about set spread betting in tennis from the basics to advanced tips.


What is Set Spread in Tennis Betting?

The set spread is a market where you bet on the margin of sets between two players in a match.

Instead of just betting on who will win, you’re predicting whether a player will win by a certain number of sets or if their opponent will keep the match closer than the spread suggests.

For example, let’s say Carlos Alcaraz was playing a lower ranked player such as Tallon Griekspoor:

  • If the set spread is -1.5 for Alcaraz, you’re betting he will win by two sets (e.g. 2-0 in a best of three or 3-0 or 3-1 in a best of five). That’s because if he wins 2-0 for example, then even taking away the -1.5 set handicap, Alcaraz would still win (in effect 0.5-0 in sets).
  • If the set spread is +1.5 for Griekspoor, you’re betting he will win the match, or only lose by one set (e.g. 1-2 in a best of three or 2-3 in a best of five). So if he loses 2-1 for example, then with the +1.5 handicap, he would in effect win 2.5-2 in sets.

This adds an extra layer of strategy to tennis betting as it’s focused on the competitiveness of the match rather than just the winner.


How Is Set Spread Different to Game Spread?

The set spread is based on the number of sets won, whereas the game spread is based on the total number of games won by each player.

For example:

  • In set betting you are backing a player to win once the set handicap is taken into account. The number of games won by each player is irrelevant.
  • Conversely, in game handicap betting a player might lose in sets but could still win the game handicap (e.g. if they lost 7-6, 0-6, 7-5 for example).

Both require analysis but set spread can be useful when there’s a clear favourite as it often offers better odds than a straight match winner bet.

 

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Why Bet on the Set Spread?

Set spread has:

  1. Better Odds: Backing a favourite to cover the spread gives you higher odds than betting on them to win.
  2. More Value: If you think an underdog can keep the match close, betting on them with a positive set spread gives you value.
  3. Strategic Depth: This market allows you to use your knowledge of players’ weaknesses and playing styles.

Odds for Set Spread Betting

Let’s take a look at the typical odds for set spread betting with a couple of examples.

Example 1: A. Shevchenko vs. P. Carreno-Busta

In a match that was expected to be closely contested between A. Shevchenko and P. Carreno-Busta in the United Cup, the odds were as follows:

Bet Type Odds for Carreno-Busta Odds for Shevchenko
Match Winner 1.73 2.10
-1.5 Handicap 2.75 3.60
+1.5 Handicap 1.29 1.48

In this closely contested match, the odds for either player to win with a -1.5 handicap were high, while the odds for either to win with a +1.5 handicap were low, under 1.5 in both cases.

Example 2: A. Zverev vs. U. Humbert

In a match with a strong favourite between A. Zverev and U. Humbert at the ATP Paris tournament, the odds were:

Bet Type Odds for Zverev Odds for Humbert
Match Winner 1.40 3.00
-1.5 Handicap 2.20 5.80
+1.5 Handicap 1.15 1.70

Zverev won the match 2-0, meaning bets on him with both the -1.5 and +1.5 handicaps would have been successful.

The -1.5 handicap can be particularly useful if you think a favourite is likely to dominate their opponent and win in straight sets.

 

What to Consider When Betting on the Set Spread

To win at set spread tennis betting you need to analyse the match thoroughly.

Here’s what to consider:

1. Form and Fitness

Recent form and fitness plays a big part in how competitive a match will be.

A player coming back from injury or struggling with fatigue may not win or even keep sets close.

2. H2H

Past matches between the two players can be useful.

Some players have a good record against certain opponents which can affect the likelihood of a one sided or close match.

3. Surface

The surface (e.g. grass, clay, hard court) can have a big impact on a player’s performance.

For example a clay court specialist may struggle on grass so a closer match is more likely.

4. Match Format

The format (best of three or best of five sets) affects set spread betting.

In Grand Slam events where matches are best of five, favourites have more chance to cover a negative spread.

5. Mental Strength

Some players thrive under pressure, others crumble in big moments.

Assess a player’s mental toughness to see if they’ll win easily or just scrape through a close match.

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Set Spread Examples

Let’s look at a couple of examples.

Example 1

  • Jannik Sinner: World No. 1, heavy favourite.
  • Hady Habib: Outside top 50, underdog.
  • Set Spread: Sinner -1.5, Habib +1.5.

If you back Sinner -1.5, he needs to win 2-0 for your bet to win. If Habib wins a set or the match your bet loses.

Example 2

  • A match between Laslo Djere and Alex de Minaur at the French Open.
  • Laslo Djere: Clay court player.
  • Alex de Minaur: Grass court specialist.
  • Set Spread: Djere -2.5, de Minaur +2.5.

If you back de Minaur +2.5 he can lose 2-3 or 1-3 and your bet will win. But if Djere wins 3-0 your bet loses.


Tips for Set Spread Betting

When it comes to set spread betting, preparation is everything.

Here are some practical tips to help you make informed decisions and improve your chances of success:

1. Specialise in Certain Tournaments

By focusing on certain tournaments you can build up expertise. Grand Slams are often more predictable due to the best of five format.

If you notice a player tends to dominate early rounds in Slams but struggles in smaller tournaments, you can adjust your set spread bets accordingly.

For example back them to cover a -2.5 spread in the first round of Wimbledon but not in ATP 250s.

2. Use Statistics

Use data to make decisions. Platforms like Flashscore or the ATP and WTA sites have loads of info on player performance – serve percentages, break points saved, win rates on different surfaces.

For example if a player has a high first serve percentage and dominates service games they are more likely to win sets convincingly so are good for a -1.5 spread bet.

3. Live Betting

For example if a favourite starts slowly and loses the first set bookmakers may adjust the set spread.

If you think they will recover and win 2-1 you can back them mid-match and get good value.

4. Shop Around

Not all bookmakers offer the same odds or spreads. Compare across multiple platforms to get the best value for your bets.

For example one bookmaker might have Player A at -1.5 1.80 and another at 1.90. Over time these small differences add up.

5. Bankroll Management

Discipline is key to long term success. Set a staking plan, for example betting a fixed percentage of your bankroll on each bet.

Don’t chase losses as this can lead to poor decisions and unnecessary risk.

For example if your bankroll is £500 you might decide to stake 2% (£10) on each bet so you can ride out losing runs without depleting your funds.


Don’t Make These Mistakes

Before placing your bets, it’s important to be aware of potential pitfalls.

Avoiding these common mistakes can save you from unnecessary losses:

1. Ignore Match Context

Player injuries, fatigue, external conditions (weather etc) can have a huge impact on the outcome. Betting without considering these can lead to bad decisions.

For example backing a player at -1.5 without knowing they’ve just played a 5 setter the day before could lead to losses. 

2. Overestimating Favourites

Even top players sometimes don’t cover a set spread against a good opponent. Assuming a favourite will win every match is a common mistake.

For example a heavy favourite might win 2-1 but not cover -1.5 because their opponent played well in one set.

3. Underestimating Underdogs

Backing underdogs with a positive spread can be great value especially in close matches.

For example if an underdog has a +2.5 spread in a best-of-five match they only need to win one set or lose 2-3 for your bet to win.

Ignoring these opportunities means missing out on good bets.

4. Not Adapting Mid Match

Live betting is a powerful tool but not adapting to the match dynamics can cost you.

If you backed a player at -1.5 and they are struggling consider hedging or looking for other in-play opportunities.


Conclusion – Set Spread Betting in Tennis

Set spread tennis betting is a fun market with plenty of opportunities for the smart punter.

By understanding this market and doing your research you’ll be more likely to win.

Remember to consider form, surface and head to head and always gamble responsibly.

Good luck with your tennis betting and please remember to always gamble responsibly. 

 

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