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arbitrage

Sports Arbitrage – Does It Work?

There is much debate about sports arbitrage betting. Advocates consider it to be a great way to deliver an almost guaranteed profit, while many detractors find it too risky due to its complications and possible implications once bookmakers discover this is what you are doing.  Here we will look at both sides of this argument and leave you to draw your own conclusions.

What is Sports Arbitrage?

Arbing, as sports arbitrage is commonly called, is a betting scheme where punters place multiple bets with multiple bookmakers in such a way as to guarantee a profit whatever the outcome of the events. It works by exploiting odds differences between different bookmakers.

Let’s say for example there is a tennis match between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. One bookie has Federer at 11/10 (2.1), whilst another bookie has Nadal at 6/5 (2.2).

You could bet £100 on both players at the two bookies and be guaranteed a profit whatever happens. 

If Federer wins the match, you win £110, minus the £100 you put on Nadal, leaving you with £10 profit.

If Nadal wins the match, you win £120, minus the £100 you put on Federer, leaving you with £20 profit.

Now it is worth noting firstly that you are unlikely to get such a good arb on a high-profile match like this, but it is just an example. Secondly if you are going to arb on tennis, pay attention to the bookies’ terms and conditions as they vary on what happens if a player retires hurt. Some pay out on the result regardless whereas others will count it as a void bet.  

As the odds differences in arbs are usually minimal, you need to invest a large sum of money to make a relatively small profit. But if your profit is guaranteed, it’s the same as putting your money in a savings account, only at a much higher interest rate than banks can offer you.

Is arbing really risk-free?

Unfortunately, there are risks. In any betting scheme, there are always things that could go wrong, Odds can change very quickly, and you must be nimble on your feet to keep up with it all. Arbing isn’t something you can do and sit back from.

However, you must be disciplined in your approach and resist any outliers however tempting they might seem. But, with care, there are excellent and reliable profits to be made. Sports arbitrage works. Just look at those who have made significant profits using it – for a time at least.

Best Software for Sports Arbing

There are quite a few arbing products out there, with probably the best of the bunch if you are serious about your arbitrage being Rebel Betting. They have a large number of bookmakers and sports available and include dutching opportunities which is a useful feature allowing you to go a bit more under the bookies’ radar than straight arbs. It is generally used by the professionals. 

If you are looking for something more straightforward (and cheaper) then Oddsmonkey has an odds comparison tool which can be used to find arbs.

The most significant danger is your bookmaker

The most significant threat, though, is your bookmaker. Bookmakers hate successful arbing, as it robs them of their profits. If you are making substantial profits arbing, then they are likely to severely restrict or close your account. You will have allowed them to do so by signing up to their terms and conditions.

Naturally, you never read them, who does? You had no choice but to accept them. But they will state that your account may be closed at the discretion of the bookmaker at any time and there is no right of appeal. Even if you do protest, it would be unusual for them to overturn their decision.

How do bookmakers know you have been arbing?

An important rule is to never underestimate bookmakers. There are good reasons why you rarely see a poor one. They are very smart organisations run by bright people and can quickly spot the tell-tale signs that identify potential arbitrage betters. If you are arbing, here are some tips to hide your trail.

  • – Don’t sign up with a new bookmaker, make a large deposit, and make a maximum bet on a selection. This is certain to raise suspicions.
  • – Don’t stake strange amounts. Your arbitrage strategy/algorithm might indicate an optimum bet is £18.42, but if you bet that amount it is clearly identifiable as an unusual bet, especially if you bet strange amounts frequently. At least make your bets look usual by rounding them up or down.
  • – Be careful about frequently placing bets at high odds. This is a typical arbitrage pattern that bookmakers look out for.
  • – If you can, also do some “mug bets” from time to time to throw the bookies off your scent and make them think you are an amateur punter. Nothing says mug more than throwing in a few accas here and there. Of course if you wanted to reduce the risk of said mug bets you could also lay them off at the exchanges. 
  • – It would also help to follow these steps to try and keep your bookie accounts open. 

What About Exchange Arbing?

One possibility that gets around the risk of bookie restrictions is to arb between exchanges like Betfair, Smarkets, Betdaq and Matchbook. They have no problem with arbers because all they are interested in is bets being matched, regardless of whether you are making a profit by arbing, matched betting or doing anything similar. 

If you watch the exchanges closely enough you may spot the odd arbing opportunity, but it must be said they are few and far between and usually disappear pretty quickly. 

That may be because bots are operating arbing strategies between exchanges and are hoovering up any opportunities as they arise. Such bots are quite commonplace in the (largely unregulated) crypto markets, although most we have seen are of dubious quality. We haven’t seen any available for the exchange markets, but if anyone would like to develop one we would be all ears!

Of course if you are going to arb between exchanges, don’t forget to factor commission into your calculations. 

So, what’s our conclusion?

As we said at the start, we will leave you to draw your own conclusions. But we must point out that many professionals and amateurs alike make healthy profits from arbing – for a time anyway. There is nothing illegal about it. Just make sure you have the right tools and take as many steps as you can to try and keep your bookie accounts open for as long as possible.

Inevitably if you are going to arb the bookies will close your accounts, it’s just a question of when. In our view, matched betting through a service like Profit Maximiser is probably a better option, as you can generally keep your bookie accounts open for longer and make more money from it. 

For those outside of the UK and Ireland who don’t have access to free bets and bonuses in order to do matched betting however, arbing is another low-risk option to make money from the bookies.  

 

 

 

 

 

man winning money 2

Bet365 Early Payout Offer – Explained

The Bet365 Early Payout Offer is one of the more attractive bookmakers offers currently out there and has acquired an excellent reputation with punters who enjoy the low-risk high gains provided by matched betting.

In a nutshell, if you back a team to win in the match odds market of a football game, Bet365 will pay out if they go two goals ahead at any time during the match, not just the final result. Even if your selection eventually loses the game, you will still profit. We will look in more detail at how it works and why it is an exciting option for matched betters.

How It Works

Let’s assume you are betting on Liverpool to beat Manchester City. Regardless of the final result, if at any stage of the game Liverpool goes two goals ahead of Manchester City, your bet will be settled as a winner, even if Manchester City go on the win the game or it finishes in a draw.

Even if the final score were 3-4 to Manchester City, if at some point in the game the score was 2-0 or 3-1 to Liverpool, then you would win. That must be worth considering, as there are significantly more ways to win, but it is even more impressive when you use it as part of a matched bet.

Bet365 Early Payout and Matched Betting

Building on the previous example, assume you bet on Liverpool to win with Bet365 and laid Manchester City on Betfair. If Liverpool goes two goals ahead at any time, Bet365 will pay you out as a winner. But you would also have your lay in play with Betfair. You now have two options:

  • – Cash-out your lay bet and take your profit
  • – Let your lay bet run

If you go for the second option and Manchester City goes on to win, or the game is a draw, then both your lay-bet and back-bet will provide you with a profit.

So if you had backed Liverpool at 2.5 with Bet365 for £100 and then laid them for the same amount at Betfair, you would win £150 from Bet365, plus win your £100 lay bet with Betfair. Pretty awesome eh?

Of course, if this didn’t happen and Liverpool went on to win the game, you would lose your lay bet, but you would almost compensate for that with your back bet on Bet365.

The Early Payout Offer is generally regarded as one of the best bookmaker offers around and has one of the highest EVs (estimated values), meaning over the course of a large number of bets it would be expected to have one of the highest returns of any offer. 

You can learn the perfect set up for it and dozens of other bookie offers with Profit Maximiser, which is highly recommended. 

Accumulators

The Bet365 Early Payout Offer also applies to accumulators. So, if any of your multiple selections were to go two goals ahead at any time, that leg of your accumulator would be a winner.

Restrictions

Do be aware there are some restrictions:

The offer applies to the Premier League, Championship, FA Cup, UEFA Champions League, EFL, UEFA Europa League, Serie A, Primera Liga, and Bundesliga.

It only applies to the Full-Time Result market. Any bets placed on enhanced prices markets are not eligible.

Please check out the full terms and conditions here. 

Six Nations

Bet365 Early Payout Offer also applies to Six Nations matches. Here the criterion is your selection must be 10 points ahead at any stage of the game.

NFL

There is also an Early Payout Offer on NFL (American football) matches, whereby if the team you have backed goes 17 points up at any stage, they will pay your bet out in full even if that team doesn’t go on to win the game. Applies to the Money Line market.

Finally

This is a useful offer from Bet365 that should result in higher profits for savvy punters. While sides that are two goals ahead rarely go on to lose or draw the game, it happens frequently enough to make this an attractive offer.

The availability of the early payout offer varies by country and customer, so please check the terms and conditions and your own account to see if you are eligible, or contact Bet365 if you are not sure.

If you want to learn how to profit from the Early Payout Offer and dozens of other bookie offers, check out this excellent package which shows you how to make up to £500 per month tax free (UK & Ireland only). 

 

 

 

 

 

horse racing

Laying Favourites on Betfair

One of the biggest advantages of the advent of betting exchanges is the ability to act like a bookie and lay selections – or in other words bet on them to lose.

At first glance it seems like a great idea and the easiest thing in the world to lay a horse or team to lose. After all, you’ve probably heard the phrase “you never see a poor bookie” and that is exactly what they do.

However, anyone who has tried laying will have found it more difficult than it at first appears and there is the potential for your bank to get severely hit by a big priced lay going on to win the race or event. 

One possible solution to this is to lay favourites. This way your liability is lower because you are going against the jolly, who will generally be at low odds and often odds-on.

Below we take a look at some possible angles to take if you want to lay favourites and how you can make a profit from doing so.  

 

How to Lay Favourites on Betfair

Just in case you are not familiar with how to use the exchanges, here is an example of how to lay on Betfair. 

We have a horse race, the 16.05 at Bath. The favourite is Road to Paris, ridden by Luke Morris. 

If you want to lay the selection (i.e. bet on it to lose), you simply click the pink box next to the horse in question and that brings up your betslip on the right hand side. 

The odds at the time in question are 1.68, so we then enter our stake, which in this example is £100, and then click the yellow “Place bets” box.

You would then have laid the favourite in this race, Road to Paris. If it goes on to win, we would have lost £68 (i.e. our liability), but if any other horse wins we would collect £100 profit. 

If you felt that the odds were too high and you want to lay at a lower price, you can always request a lower price and see if it gets matched. To do this just enter the price you want in the betslip and click place bets. You have the choice of letting it go in-running, taking whatever the Betfair Starting Price (BSP) is, or of cancelling the bet if it is not matched by the time the race starts. 

So that in brief terms is how to lay a favourite on Betfair. 

 

Why You Need an Edge

Whilst the idea of laying favourites might sound appealing, you still need an edge over the market in order to make a profit overall. If you just laid favourites at random or without having an edge over the market, you could expect to lose £5 for every £100 you staked, due to having to pay Betfair’s commission rate of 5%. Or to put it another way, if you staked £10,000, you could expect to lose £500. 

The good news however is that there is usually better liquidity on favourites so you should have no problem obtaining prices and of course you do not need to put down as much money as if you were laying a 50/1 shot for example. 

 

Some Strategies for Laying Favourites on Betfair

OK, so we’ve looked at how to lay a selection on Betfair and pointed out that you need to have an edge over the market if you want to make a profit by taking on favourites. Let’s take a look at some strategies for laying favourites on Betfair. 

Taking on Dodgy Favourites

A simple strategy for horse racing involves looking at horses who are racing in unfamiliar conditions or trying to do something they haven’t done before. That might be winning at a distance a horse hasn’t won at before or ground it doesn’t perform well on. If you had a combination of these factors you could have a good opportunity to lay.

Little Acorns

One horse racing system that has done exceptionally well from laying favourites is Little Acorns. It is a low-liability laying system that involves using a combination of factors to pick horses to lay on Betfair at odds-on. It has been around for a number of years and has won numerous awards so is held in very high regard. With over 594 points profit made in 65 months it is easy to see why. Only seven of those 65 months have been losing months which is top-notch consistency.

We completed an extensive review of the system and gave it a passed rating, so if you are looking for a tried and trusted way of laying favourites then Little Acorns is well worth checking out. 

Tennis Goldmine

In a similar vein to Little Acorns but in a different sport, Tennis Goldmine is also a system that follows a set of rules for laying favourites in tennis matches on Betfair. It also completed a successful trial here on the site and comes from the tennis betting guru Patrick Ross, who is one of the most established tennis betting professionals on the web. Coming with his betting and trading tips as an additional add-on, which also have an excellent long-term record, Tennis Goldmine is a solid strategy for laying on Betfair.

 

Conclusion – Keeping It Real

Laying favourites sounds like a simple way to bank easy profits but it is important to keep it real – just like any other form of betting, you need an edge over the market or you will just lose money from doing it. 

The reason bookies are able to make money from laying is that they have an over-round, or in other words have an inbuilt house edge which means they offer slightly worse odds than what the actual chances of winning are. As a layer on the exchanges though you don’t have that advantage – and you have to pay the exchange’s commission charges. 

So if you want to make a profit from laying favourites then you need a winning strategy. We have outlined a few above which have worked well over the years, so they could be worth checking out. 

Whether you follow those strategies or devise your own though, please gamble responsibly and only risk money you can afford to lose.  

 

 

 

 

sports pic

Sports Betting Strategies

Betting on sports has become a huge multi-billion dollar industry around the world and is a beloved pastime of millions of people. 

Out of those millions of people however, only around 2% actually make a profit from betting on sports. So what is it that sets those people apart from the rest?

Well, having a strategy that works and can consistently beat the bookies is a big part of the success of the winning 2%, along with of course discipline and sensible money management. 

Below we will take a look at some successful sports betting strategies and how you can apply them to your own gambling to hopefully improve your results.

 

Why You Need A Strategy

If you are going to bet on sports then it’s vital to have some clear strategies in place. If you are just betting on a whim or because you are watching a sporting event on TV and want to make it more entertaining, then you are almost certainly going to lose money in the long run. 

Professional gamblers have clearly worked-out strategies and stick to them rigidly, only adjusting their approach if a large quantity of data suggests it is worth doing so.

They plan their bets in advance, always look for value in their betting, keep detailed records of their results and follow sensible betting bank management. If you want to make a profit from your betting, this is what you should be doing too. 

If you follow these rules, then with the right strategy you have a chance of making money from your betting. Let’s take a look at some potential sports betting strategies you could use.  

 

Best Sports Betting Strategies

There are such a huge number of strategies out there, from books, guides, systems, tipsters, software, bots and more besides it can be overwhelming at times to decide which ones you should follow and which you should avoid.

That is why we have spent over five years testing out hundreds of strategies to see which ones work and which ones don’t, publishing full results so you can see exactly how well they have done.

Here are the top five Sports Betting Strategies we have found through our extensive research and testing:-

 

1. Take On the Sports Spread Betting Markets

One of the most neglected elements of sports betting are the spread betting markets. As spread betting is much more niche than fixed odds betting, not many people have really focused on finding profitable angles from it, meaning there are opportunities to be exploited. 

Just in case you are not familiar with it, spread betting involves not just predicting how an event will turn out, but you get rewarded for how correct you are – or conversely punished for how wrong you are. 

So taking an example, let’s say you thought Tiger Woods was going to do well in a golf tournament. Normally you would back him to win (or maybe each-way) at fixed odds. But with spread betting, you could bet on his finishing position in the event.

A spread firm might offer you a finishing position spread of 30-33. What that means is if you think Tiger will finish better than 30th, you “sell” at 30, for your chosen stake – let’s say £10 in this example. 

If Tiger has a good event and finishes fifth, you would win a multiple of your stake. In this case it would be 30 (the price sold for), minus 5 (the final position), which equals 25. So you would win 25 times your stake of £10, making £250 profit. 

Let’s say Tiger had a bad tournament though and finished 40th. In that case you would then lose 30 (the price sold for) minus 40 (the final position) equaling -10, so 10 times your stake, meaning a loss of £100. 

So as you can see, it really pays to not just win your bet, but for your selection to do so by a big margin. Hence angles that exploit where a big margin might happen have the potential to do very well on the spreads. Or occasions when a spread firm may just have got their spread wrong, as they can with fixed odds too. 

One service that has proven very adept at profiting from the spread betting markets is the aptly-named Sports Spread Betting. It provides tips for the spread markets in a number of sports including football, cricket, horse racing and more. 

We ran a review of the service during which it made an excellent £750 profit from £1 stakes and it has made a fantastic 4,000 points profit since starting up. That would be £4,000 profit if betting to just £1 stakes. 

As we say, it can really pay off to find a niche and stick to it in sports betting. 

 

2. Use Stats to Your Advantage

If you are going to be betting on sports then it pays to use stats to your advantage. There are now a huge wealth of stats available online for free so it can only make sense to use them. Whether it’s to find a slight edge in a niche market or to understand more about a particular player’s game, the stats can provide a significant advantage if utilised properly. 

Using stats is one of the most powerful betting strategies.

For example you might find that by studying golf stats you could identify players who are particularly suited to a course. If the course in question was narrow off the tee and rewarded players who hit it straight, then using stats for fairways hit percentage and strokes gained off the tee could be useful. Often the market will focus on the “big name” players or those in hot form and will miss the nuances of who the course is likely to suit.

One service that has done an excellent job of using stats is Trade on Sports. It is a platform run by a team of professional traders and uses a huge stats database in sports including tennis, football, cricket and American sports.

That database provides the basis for their in-play selections which are provided via the Telegram app and made over £4,000 profit during our live trial.  They have a number of other systems in the works which also look promising. 

In addition to their in-play alerts you can also make use of the stats database yourself to find suitable bets and trades and there are in-depth videos on how to use the database. 

Trade on Sports demonstrates the effectiveness of stats used in the right way and they have the record to back this up. 

 

3. Take On the Favourite

Most people who have done even a little bit of gambling in their lives will be able to testify to the allure of backing favourites. Whether you are at the races and want to have the thrill of backing a winner, or you fancy the stronger team to win the big match on telly, there is no denying that people are attracted to backing the “jolly,” as the favourite is often referred to.  

There are some strategies that take the opposite approach though and look to oppose favourites in certain circumstances. Maybe a horse is favourite but is facing conditions it has never run in before, or a football team is favourite for a match but has some key players missing and played badly in its last two games. 

There can be a litany of reasons for taking on the favourite, but if done well it can pay off handsomely. The nice thing about it is you don’t normally need to risk too much either as the favourite’s odds will generally be low. 

One service that has built a successful strategy out of taking on the favourite is Tennis Goldmine, which has been devised by tennis betting stalwart Patrick Ross.  It’s a PDF guide with a step-by-step approach to follow and made 28 points profit during our live trial. Tennis Goldmine also includes Patrick’s tips for the day which makes it a strong overall package.

 

4. Look to Less Obvious Sports

When it comes to sports betting, the runaway leaders in terms of the amount gambled on them are football and horse racing. However, whilst most of us are naturally drawn to these two when it comes to betting, it can pay to focus attention elsewhere on sports that don’t garner so much interest.

Just as mentioned above with regard to spread betting, focusing on more niche angles that others overlook can really pay dividends in sports betting. 

Focusing on niche sports like golf and boxing has proven very effective for some professional gamblers.

An example of a service that has done very well is the Golf Betting Expert, which has made over £10,000 profit to £10 stakes since starting up in 2016 with an excellent return on investment of over 25%. It also performed very well in our live trial, making 41 points profit

Another example is Premium Boxing Tips, which made 117 points profit during our live trial and has made over 500 points profit overall. As a member you can see they really know their stuff as you receive very detailed write-ups on the fights, comparing the boxers’ strengths and weaknesses and how the bout is likely to go.

It’s that kind of expertise in a niche sport that can produce results from a betting point of view so if you are looking to develop your own strategy it can pay to focus on a sport you know and love.

 

5. Lay the Draw in Cricket

Many people will be familiar with laying the draw in football, one of the most common trading strategies out there. Few however will have looked at laying the draw in cricket, but it holds great potential.

Just to be clear, we are talking about test cricket here rather than one-day or T20 stuff. Obviously there won’t be too many draws (or ties) in the shorter form of the game, although memorably there was one in the 2019 World Cup Final between England and New Zealand at Lords.

However, it is test match cricket that offers the opportunity to lay the draw. The game has changed substantially in recent years, firstly by the attacking brand of cricket pioneered by the likes of Ricky Ponting’s Australian side and taken up by other countries including England and secondly due to modern cricketers playing so much T20 and the shorter form of the game. 

This has led to sides playing much more attacking cricket and either scoring big or getting out. Very few sides are capable of – or show any inclination to – bed in and bat for a draw when the chance of winning has gotten away from them. Hence you see far fewer draws in test matches these days, particularly games involving Australia, England, South Africa and the West Indies. In fact matches are often over within three or four days now and very few games even make it to the fifth day.

So it can pay to either lay the draw before the start, or to wait for the price to drop if one side starts strongly with the bat. You can also trade out if the price on the draw shoots upwards, or just let it run depending on your preference. Either way though this has proved a profitable betting strategy for us in recent years.

 

Conclusion – Be Armed with the Right Strategy

If you are going to be a successful gambler, it is vital to be armed with the right strategy and to not just bet on whims or because you are watching an event on TV. 

Above we have illustrated five potential sports betting strategies you could use that have proved themselves over a long period of time.

If you use one of these strategies or follow your own, please gamble responsibly and only risk money you can afford to lose. 

 

 

 

 

 

slot machine

The Biggest Payouts in Slots History

In the 21st century, it has became very hard to keep stress levels under control. Fast living and longer working hours combined with unhealthy fast food is not helping with reducing stress.

While some people have taken up fishing, hiking, watching or playing sports, others have decided to have a go at slot machines. We are not going to discuss if that’s a smart decision or not, but we are going to disclose occasions where the choice has really paid off and what the best payouts are on slot machines in Las Vegas history.

Although most people visit the ‘betting paradise’ of Vegas with the secret hope that they will win enough to turn their life around like the soldier who won £13 million off a 25p bet, there aren’t many who have had enough luck to win a great amount of money.

A 25 year old software engineer from Las Vegas certainly did however. He managed to win $39,710,826 after putting just $100 into a slot machine. The odds of winning the jackpot on the machine he played were 1:1670000. So very low chances, don’t you think?

Another great win happened in 2010. A man from Las Vegas hosted his friend from another country and decided to show him why Las Vegas casinos are so famous around the world. They came to have fun and decided to bet $20 on a Megabucks machine. They played it for 10 minutes and hit a jackpot. It was $14,282,544. They decided to donate most of the money to charity, a nice gesture.

Another interesting story concerns a young man who decided to drop by the Excalibur Casino to play a few slot hands while waiting for a basketball game to start. An hour later he became a millionaire. He won 40 million dollars but decided to receive the amount in small payouts for 25 years. Not a bad way to spend an hour.

There have even been a few multiple winners. The most interesting story is that of World War II veteran Elmer Sherwin, who was 76 years old when he won the jackpot of $4.6 million dollars. Even with the money to travel the world, he continued to play slots once or twice a week to kill some time. Sixteen years later he won $21 million on the same machine where he won the first time! The odds of doing that were so slim as to be almost impossible.

Although there have been some crazy wins, there have been many significant losses too and examples where casinos ruined players’ lives. Please be careful if you decide to swim in these waters. One ideal slot machine for beginners is the Cinderella slots slot machine. This virtual slot gives you the chance to see how real slots machines work.

The best thing about the Cinderella slot machine is the fact that is completely free and made for fun. You just have to download Gambino Free social slots casino app to start playing the game for free or simply play the Gambino game on Facebook.

The game is designed to provide the fun story of finding Cinderella the love of her life. Just as with the fairytale Cinderella, there are all the folks from the book. There is an evil stepsister who is going to try to stop your progress just like Anastasia, the second evil step-sister will try aswell.

The Fairy Godmother is the only relative on her side. With her help, Cinderella will try to reach her high heel shoe and get to the ball by midnight. The Fairy Godmother will use her magic to turn Cinderella’s pumpkin into the Royal Carriage. Wild symbols at the board will help your progress. It replaces every symbol of the board except scatter, but it only appears on lines 2, 3, 4 and 5. Keep playing the game to help the queen reach the ball and to charm the Prince.

There is also a cash version of this game but it is way more fun to play free version at the Gambino free social slots casino and simply have fun. If you decide to play the cash game instead, the online video game will help you to understand the rules and get you ready for the challenges the real game provides.

Be sure to only risk money you can afford to lose. Help Cinderella to find her Prince and have fun, enjoy the game!

 

 

 

weight of money

Weight of Money on Betfair – How Important Is It?

The weight of money statistic tends to be ignored by many punters, but doing so is a mistake, as behind those somewhat obscure numbers lies some handy information.

Most of the people who ignore it do so because they don’t fully understand it, so let’s put that right. We will explain what it means and how you can use it to improve your trading strategy.

 

What is the weight of money?

If you were to be pedantic, then a better description of this valuable statistic might be “balance of money” as it indicates the balance between the current back and lay offers. Usually, we shorten the weight of money to WoM.

WoM concerns just the best 3 lay prices and the best 3 back prices on either side of the book. It is the balance between these and provides a real-time view of the amount of money waiting to be matched on both the lay and bet sides of the book.

It is essential to realise that the measure concerns just unmatched money; matched bets are irrelevant to WoM.

 

How is WoM calculated?

The calculation used is:

WoM = (unmatched money on best 3 lay prices) / ((unmatched money on best 3 lay prices) + (unmatched money on best 3 back prices))

Where can you find WoM on Betfair?

WoM indicators are clearly shown on the top of Betfair trading ladders.

Weight of money can be seen by comparing the money on the back side (blue) vs the lay side (pink)

What can you do with WoM?

Before we show how you can use it, we should point out some of its potential problems. The indicator may be manipulated by traders and should not be relied on. It can also be highly volatile and give a false impression of the market. That said, it can be beneficial indeed and can indicate the direction in which the odds are likely to change. For instance:

  • – When the amount of unmatched money placed on back bets is roughly equivalent to the amount of money placed on lay bets the WoM will be in the order of 50% (1/2), We refer to this as a balanced market.
  • – When there is more unmatched money on the lay side so that the WoM is significantly higher than 50%, then the odds on back bets are likely to increase
  • – When there is more unmatched money on the back side so that the WoM is significantly less than 50%, then the odds on back bets are likely to decrease

When you trade on Betfair, keeping close attention on the odds is crucial. Even tiny changes can make a big difference overall to your profit and loss. WoM should provide a clear indication of whether odds are likely to lengthen or shorten.

 

Dangers to be aware of

There are, however, caveats. For instance, there needs to be enough liquidity in the market. If there isn’t, then WoM is likely to be highly volatile. Even small changes to the money supply can make significant changes to the WoM. Never take the WoM in isolation; it is just one of the indicators you can use to hone your marketing strategy,

The other important caveat is the possibility of manipulation by other traders, especially traders equipped with the latest tool sets.  Such practices that are frowned on and illegal in financial markets are still not wholly outlawed in betting markets.

Without going into any details, it is surprisingly easy to manipulate the odds, and one way of doing so is to manipulate the WoM by placing false orders, thus forcing a change in the odds, then removing the orders. Profits are made from the changing odds.

 

Finally

WoM is an important statistic, but don’t rely on it. It is just an indicator, not an absolute predictor. 

Want to trade the Betfair markets like a pro? Well check out this top system from a professional trader.

 

 

 

 

horse racing

Lay the Field – Explained

Lay the field is becoming an increasingly popular way to improve your winning chances while minimising your risk.

It is only available through betting exchanges such as Betfair, but trading on such exchanges is now the bread and butter of a large proportion of online punters. First, we will explain what lay the field means, and then suggest some tactics around it that have the potential to increase your returns.

Of course, nothing is guaranteed, and there are some downsides too, but it is certainly worth investing some effort in exploring its potential. It doesn’t work for every race; so you need to learn where it is most effective, but effectively you are acting as the bookmaker, and you don’t see many poor bookmakers.

What is lay the field?

Laying involves betting on a horse to lose. It’s much easier to pick losers than winners as there are naturally more of them.  When you lay, and you find a matching bet, then you keep the bettor’s stake if the horse loses. If the horse wins, then you pay out the odds. Effectively, by laying you are going to reduce the frequency of your losses, but when they do occur, they are going to be relatively expensive.

By laying the field, you are betting on every horse to lose, so with a ten-horse race, you will win nine times and lose just once. Say you laid the field at 3.00. If every lay were matched, you would soon be rolling in it. The problem is that usually, you wouldn’t be able to find matching bets. But there is a way.

 

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In-running

The secret is in-running. You lay the field (at Betfair this is the same as “Lay All”) at your chosen price, say 2.0 and keep the bets through the in-running part of the race. Several things can happen:

  • – None of your bets is matched – in which case you win nothing and lose nothing.
  • – At least three bets are matched – you will always make a profit
  • – Two bets are matched – you will break even
  • – One bet is matched, AND the horse wins, – you will make a small loss.

The reason this works is that in-running prices are likely to change throughout the race. For instance, for a runner starting at 4.00, the odds are likely to shorten if the horse looks like challenging for the lead, passing through your 2.00 lay and thus matching your bet.  

An example

Say you lay the field at 2.00 at £5.00, and four bets were matched in-running. If none of the matched bets won the race, you would have a clear profit of £20. Your worst case scenario is that one of your matched bets won the race. In that case, you would receive £15.00 from the three other bets, and you would pay out £5.00, leaving you with a profit of £10.

The downside is if only one of your lays was matched, and the horse won, you would lose £5. Laying the winner is unfortunate, but not such a huge downside when you consider the potential gains.

Choosing the best races

In our example, we decided to use odds of 2.00, but they might not be high enough to generate enough matched bets to cancel out the downslide of laying the winner. The best strategy is to modify the odds so that you generate enough matched bets. Getting this right isn’t easy, and the best odds will vary significantly between races, so you will need to choose the races carefully.

The best races for laying the field are close-run ones with similar odds on the four or so top entries. On the other hand, races with a clear favourite where the odds are very short, are not suited to laying the field.

Want to know how to trade the horse racing markets before the off? Check out this in-depth guide to scalping on Betfair. 

 

 

 

football player with trophy

3-Way Bet Explained

Regular football bettors will be acquainted with the concept of three-way bets (3-way bets) as these apply to sports events that have three possible outcomes. In football terms, league matches end in a home win, an away win, or a draw.

Naturally, they don’t apply only to football; they apply equally to rugby, cricket, and even boxing. They don’t apply to games such as tennis that have only two possible outcomes.   

Some examples of 3-way bets

Let’s dig a little deeper with an example, again using football betting. A few days before the 2019 FA Cup Final between Manchester City and Watford, typical odds for the match were Manchester City 1/4, Draw 6/1, Watford 14/1.

In this 3 way bet you can bet on any of these outcomes. A successful £5 bet on Manchester City will return a profit of £1.25; on a draw a profit of £30, and on Watford a profit of  £70.

What you need to consider is whether you want to take a gamble the underdog wins or even draws the game which would return you a healthy profit or bet on the favourite even though you stand to win very little.

Many 3-way football bets have much closer odds. For instance, a French Ligue 1 game between Bordeaux and Reims has odds of Home (Bordeaux) 11/8, Draw 23/10, Away 23/10. Again, you can bet on any of the three possible results.

Here is an example of a 3-way bet from cricket, this time the County Championship Division One. In the match between Kent and Yorkshire, the odds on offer were Kent 8/1, Draw 17/10, Yorkshire 1/2.

 

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3-way handicap bets

While with outright 3 way bets you bet on a home win, an away win or a draw starting from a level playing field, in other words from a score of 0-0, three-way handicap bets apply to the same outcomes, but the initial score isn’t 0-0, When one team has a distinct advantage over another, bookmakers often offer three-way handicap bets. To see how this works, let’s look at an example.

Consider a game in which Liverpool is playing away to Huddersfield Town. Even though Huddersfield is playing at home, so will receive some sort of home advantage, and Liverpool might not be starting with its top players, the outcome is something of a no-brainer.

The chances of a win for Huddersfield or even a draw is remote. Liverpool will almost certainly win, and the betting odds reflect this. You won’t make much money betting on Liverpool and, although there are attractive odds for a  Huddersfield win, dedicated Huddersfield fans will be reluctant to bet on their club winning; it’s just throwing money away.

To make betting on this match more attractive, bookmakers offer 3-way handicap bets in which game starts other than 0-0 are offered with different odds. Game starts might be offered at 0:1, 0:2, 0.3, or even 0:4. So if you chose a bet of Huddersfield  +4, then you will win even if Liverpool beat Huddersfield by three goals. If they beat them by four goals, then the game is paid out as a draw.

Handicap three-way bets are certainly another string for the football better’s bow and an exciting way to bet on any game where the sides are mismatched. To make the best of this strategy, you need to consider likely outcomes and the odds that available carefully. Often it isn’t too difficult to beat the bookmaker and discover value bets that maximise your chances of making a profit.

Get free football tips from the experts here. 

 

 

 

 

 

football players celebrating

Draw No Bet Accumulator – Explained

Draw no bet football accumulators are often valuable when you cannot rule out the possibility that one or more of your selections might end in a draw.  

While the odds are not as high as with a straight football accumulator, draw no bet accumulators are also safer bets. Here we will talk you through the bet starting with accumulators before moving on to the details of draw no bet accumulators. We also mention mixed draw no bet accumulators and when they can be particularly helpful.

 

Accumulator Bets

An accumulator bet is a bet that combines several selections into a single bet. The potential payout is calculated by multiplying the odds of each selection. You can make as many selections as you like, but each one must win. If you sustain a single loss, you will lose the whole bet.

For instance, if with a fourfold accumulator you selected Spurs, Manchester United, Chelsea, and Arsenal which were all priced at 2/1, then the odds would be 80/1, so a £10 bet would return £810, a profit of £800.

 

Draw No Bet

Sometimes in football betting, a game that should see a clear winner can sometimes end in an unexpected draw. Although this is not a regular outcome, it does happen, and as a precaution, you can make a draw no bet punt. The advantage is that if the game results in a draw, the bet is cancelled, and your stake is returned.

This can be a useful bet if you cannot choose a likely winner. It just depends on how sure you are about your selection.

 

Draw No Bet Accumulator

With a straight football bet, it can be quite debatable whether you choose a draw no bet punt. Yes, your stake will be returned if there is a draw, but if you win your odds will be reduced. Some people like them and others don’t see the point. However, with an accumulator, it’s a different ball game. Remember, if just one of the selections in your accumulator loses, then the whole bet is lost.

Just consider that you have bet £10 on a seven-fold accumulator and you have won the first six of your selections, all at 2/1, and your final choice is West Ham, a late kick-off, then you effectively have £7,280 riding on that match. If West Ham wins, you will collect £21, 860 – a life-changing win. BUT, if the West Ham game ends in a draw, you lose everything.

The game ends in a draw. Now you wish you had chosen a draw no bet accumulator – as they say, hindsight is 20/20 vision.

The benefits of choosing a draw no bet accumulator are clear. If you are lucky, you stand to win a great deal of money with any successful accumulator bet, so it is worth considering trading some of those winnings in the interest of making a safer bet.

 

Mixed Draw No Bet Accumulator

In draw no bet accumulators there is no need to chose to draw no bet for every leg. You can mix and match as you like. Say that you have high expectations that some of your selections will win, you can choose to select win bets as the chances of a draw are so low and that way you get better odds.

However, for the legs that you are not so sure of, you can select draw no bet to protect you from the possibility of a draw.

It all requires careful planning, but it is undoubtedly beneficial to include draw no bet accumulators in your betting strategies. They can be a handy tool.

Want to start making some consistent profit from your football bets? Well check out this top football tipster with a proven track record.

 

 

 

 

tipster warehouse pic

Tipster Warehouse – 6 Tipsters For 1 Fee

If you enjoy betting, you want more winners.

Right now, Tipster Warehouse will give you access to six tipsters for an amazingly low price of just £9 per month. 

Following tipsters with proven, profitable results is almost always your best way to beat the bookies and with this package you get six for the price of one. 

That’s why Tipster Warehouse has launched…. “Multiple Tipsters, One Fee”.

It’s one very small fee, six tipsters, and you can access them all from anywhere in the world, on any device… you could call it the Netflix of sports betting.

The platform currently includes:

  • – Quentin Franks Express
  • – Golf Profits
  • – BK Footy Accas
  • – The USA Tipster
  • – Bookies Enemy Express
  • – MS Greyhounds

Quite a few of those tipsters we have reviewed here at Honest Betting Reviews, including Quentin Franks Racing who is our number one recommended horse racing tipster. With Quentin Franks Express you get his top tip for the day. Similarly with Bookies Enemy Express which is another tipster to have a passed one of our in-depth trials.

Plus you’ll also get key selections across a range of sports including golf, greyhounds, US sports and of course football.

And potentially more tipsters will be added as the platform grows.

The tipsters have averaged a combined £464 profit per month to date, which is excellent stuff and exceptional value to get access to all of them for just £9 per month.

We will be monitoring the tipsters and keeping an eye on how they get on to see if they can maintain that level of performance going forward.

In the meantime you can check out Tipster Warehouse for yourself here.