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virtual football pic

What Is Virtual Football Betting and Should You Play?

Football has now become the biggest sport to wager your money on among all sports online. Betting companies are always looking to come up with new and improved ways to get potential punters involved so have devised a new medium to attract people – that of virtual football betting.

With one of the most significant disadvantages of real football being that you have to wait for the next game and there are not always markets available for people to get involved with, virtual football betting is available pretty much 24/7.

Real football also has the disadvantage that you have to wait a full 90 minutes of play to get the result and move on to the next available opportunity. So if you’re thinking about virtual football and would like to know more then you have come to the right place.

Virtual football matches are quicker than real ones and are electronically generated. They look a lot like a game of FIFA or Pro Evolution Soccer, but the results of the fixtures are calculated by an unbiased computer algorithm. And just like online gambling machines or casino games, you can access the games from the comfort of your own home.

When virtual football first started out the quality was quite poor, but with the advance of technology, graphics and internet speed these issues have been taken care of considerably. With so many online betting services available nowadays all competing in this competitive market, online virtual football has improved immensely. Even the live commentaries feel almost as good as the real thing.

Advantages of Virtual Betting

The advantages to betting on virtual football are that there is always a list of live matches to bet on night and day. Also, these games last a lot less time than real football matches, offering many more games to get involved in.

Another significant advantage to virtual football is that you don’t need a lot of prior knowledge of the teams playing and you don’t need to sift through mountains of statistical data such as the manager’s performance to be able to get started, and it’s much easier to play. You can just simply select your type of bet, place your stake and then you only have to wait a short amount of time to find out the outcome.

Another thing you will notice if you are used to betting on real football matches is that there are a lot fewer types of bets available. This simplifies things and lets you concentrate on just a few markets such as the win markets, correct score, goals margins, double chance markets and Asian handicaps. However, Betfred does offer around 20 different markets for every fixture.

Some Things To Remember

Although betting on virtual football can seem very similar to gambling on the real thing, they are in fact two very different beasts. A real football game has so many variables to factor into your betting decisions such as weather, psychology of the players, fatigue etc. Virtual football is entirely generated using a RNG (random number generator).

Also, the teams have no relevance to real life teams. Sometimes their names can seem very similar to real ones, but due to licensing purposes they cannot use the real names. However they do not have any reference to the actual teams and performance in any way, and all users will see exactly the same result of each game.

Just as with all other forms of betting of course, the bookies have an in-built house edge over punters with virtual betting. So if you bet consistently on virtual football you are likely to lose money long-term, unless you happen to get lucky or have a proven strategy to overcome the bookies’ edge. 

We would have thought it would be more difficult to study form and develop a winning strategy in virtual football compared to the real thing though, given that results are randomly generated. So you are better off sticking to the real thing to be honest.

Conclusion

Hopefully you now have a better idea of how the world of online virtual football betting works and a better understanding of the markets and bookmakers that are available.

You now also see the advantages and disadvantages of virtual betting and can decide if this is something you would like to add to your betting portfolio. 

Essentially virtual football betting is much like casino games and slots – it can be fun to play for small stakes on occasion but ultimately the bookies have an in-built edge that will be almost impossible to overcome long-term, unless you just happen to get very lucky. 

So rather than risking your money on virtual football, why not bet on the real thing alongside a top professional tipster like this one.  

 

 

 

 

congress

Betting on the US Midterms – How Did They Go?

It was a late night last night with the results of the US Midterm Elections going into the wee hours. 

If you stayed up then you will know it was a bit of a rollercoaster ride as things looked bad for the Democrats early on but gradually improved as the night went on. 

I had given my thoughts on the betting for the Midterms last week, so how did my predictions turn out?

Well overall it was a good night, with my main bets on the Democrats to win the House and Republicans to hold the Senate landing comfortably.

Looking back I can still not quite believe the Democrats were 1.6 to win the House, but I guess people were spooked by the Presidential Election in 2016 and didn’t believe the numbers that strongly favoured the Democrats.

It was a shame there weren’t odds being offered on the Republicans increasing their Senate seats as that would have been a good bet to take. 

In terms of the individual races, it was a bit more of a mixed picture. On the plus side, Texas did indeed go to Ted Cruz, but it was fairly close in the end as I expected. Jon Ralston’s early voting numbers in Nevada once again proved spot on so well done to Jon and a nice win landed there. And in Michigan Debbie Stabenow also won comfortably so that one went to plan too.

The main surprise though came in Florida, where Democrats Bill Nelson and Andrew Gillum both lost. The polls had them both in front – Gillum significantly so – so I guess the lesson here is to be very wary of state level polls which are notoriously unreliable. Whilst the national polls were reasonably accurate this time, some of the state-level polls were way off, so going forward I will probably not put much store in them at all. 

Arizona is unlikely to be called for a few days as there are still over a million ballots to be counted but it looks like Republican Martha McSally will win there. 

Overall then a good night but a few lessons to be learned going forward and hopefully next time will get things all right. 

 

 

 

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Betting on the US Midterms – Is Trump In For a Kicking?

30th October 2018

The US Midterm Elections take place on 6th November and there are a variety of betting opportunities available.

Perhaps because there aren’t many events to bet on, elections don’t seem to attract as much money from professionals as sports betting events and can often present some excellent value if you study them closely. 

The Midterms this time are being seen as a referendum on President Donald Trump and there is a chance he could be in for a tough night – perhaps even a real proverbial kicking.

I’ve had quite a lot of success betting on politics over the years so thought I would share my ideas on the upcoming Midterm Elections. 

I’ll take a look at the markets and where I see some of that value this time around.

 

What are the US Midterms?

In the US they have a chance to change government (or at least part of the government) every two years. 

In between Presidential Elections, there are elections for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives (aka “The House”) and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate, plus a slew of governors races and local elections across the country. 

The Midterms have historically been a chance to bring some balance to the partisan make-up of government and the party that holds the Presidency usually does very badly.

Barack Obama suffered crushing losses in both of the Midterm Elections during his Presidency in 2010 and 2014, as did George W Bush in 2006. It has often been the case that the President’s party loses control of the House in the midterms and may well lose seats in the Senate as well. The historical pattern is that governing parties tend to lose 30 House seats on average. 

This year looks set to be no different, with President Trump suffering poor approval ratings in the low-40s and Democrats looking highly motivated.

But how will his unpopularity play out and how are the betting markets estimating the outcome? Let’s take a look at the different races in turn.

 

The House of Representatives

Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to gain a majority in the House. The race for control of the House is a little complicated by the fact that Republican gerrymandering (i.e. the drawing of voting districts that favour them) means the Democrats have to win the popular vote across the country by about five percentage points to reclaim the House.

Leaving aside the question of how this is allowed to happen (most other democracies have independent panels that draw their voting districts), it does create some uncertainty in a race where the Democrats currently hold a commanding average poll lead on the generic ballot of 8.2 points. 

If the polls were off by just over 3 points for example, then Republicans would likely retain control of the House. And of course 3 points is about how far off they were in the last Presidential Election, when most polls gave Hillary Clinton a solid lead. 

Having said all that, I still think the betting markets are currently underestimating Democrats’ chances in the House. On Betfair, the Democrats are around 1.6 at the time of writing, which equates to about a 63% chance of winning the House. You can view the market here.

However, on Fivethirtyeight’s House Forecast (the Classic version, which incorporates not just polls but fundamentals like fundraising, historical trends and other data), they currently give the Democrats an 86% chance of winning. So based on that model, the odds should actually be around 1.16. 

Fivethirtyeight’s House Forecast (Classic Model) on 29th October.

That is a pretty phenomenal difference and if you saw that in a football match or horse race, you probably wouldn’t believe your luck. It would be like Man City being 1.6 at home in the Premier League to beat Cardiff, instead of the 1.16 they should be. 

Now of course people will point out the Fivethirtyeight model got Trump’s chances wrong in 2016 and so it might be off again. 

Their model was the closest to the actual result though out of all the mainstream models, giving Trump a 30% chance of winning, as against some other models which (quite laughably now with hindsight) gave Clinton a 95% chance of winning. And Fivethirtyeight seem to have learned from their mistakes last time and incorporated a lot more data into their model this time around, rather than focusing too much on the polls. 

There are other reasons though why I think their model has things more or less correct this time and that Democrats have a really good chance of winning the House – or certainly better than the betting markets currently give them:

 – Special Elections

These are the elections to fill the empty seat of a politician who dies or retires (we call them by-elections here in the UK). They give a useful guide to how the public mood is shaping up. 

Since the 2016 Election the Democrats have outperformed the partisan lean of districts in Special Elections by an average of 16 points. If that was repeated in the Midterms, needless to say it would deliver them a thumping victory. 

– Fundraising 

The Democrats have outraised the Republicans 2 to 1 in individual contributions. This is pretty much unprecedented and the models have struggled to know how to interpret this data as it’s such a strong trend.

What is important is not so much that the extra money gives one side an advantage – the Republicans will probably more than make up for it in big donations from Super-PACS (bodies that can raise unlimited amounts of money from corporations and billionaires and donate it to a campaign), but what it indicates in terms of the enthusiasm of the public. The fundraising data suggests Democrats are very enthusiastic indeed.

 – Voter Registration

Although typically not a strong predictor of the final results, voter registration is another barometer of enthusiasm. And Democrats have seen a surge in voter registration in a range of states across the country, particularly amongst the young, a key demographic for them (more on that below).

 – Youth Enthusiasm 

The young vote heavily Democrat (nearly two thirds voted for Clinton against just a third for Trump) – the problem is they don’t vote very much. Whilst turnout for those aged over 65 tends to be around 60% in midterm elections, for those aged 18-29 it struggles to get over 25% – and was a paltry 20% in the last Midterms. 

This year could be different however. Polls suggest as many as 40% of young voters may turn out this time, which would presage a “blue wave,” given that 72% of these voters disapprove of Trump.

 – Other Forecasts

It is not just Fivethirtyeight predicting a Democrat takeover of the House. The Cook Political Report predicts the “likeliest outcome is a Democratic gain of between 25 and 35 seats.” Inside Elections concurs that the “Most likely outcome: Democratic gain of 25-35 seats, with larger gains possible,” whilst Sabato’s Crystal Ball states  “the bare minimum for Democratic House gains is in the mid-to-high teens. The needed 23-seat net gain is not that far beyond that and there are many different paths Democrats can take to achieve it.”

So there seems to be solid consensus about the Democrats’ chances from the forecasters.  

House Summary

There are a variety of indicators suggesting the Democrats are strong favourites to retake the House and yet the betting markets don’t seem to take these into account. Unless something dramatic changes between now and the elections, I see 1.6 as excellent value on the Democrats. 

There is uncertainty in terms of youth and minority turnout which could affect the result, but the evidence suggests they will turn out in higher numbers than in recent midterm elections. Even if they don’t, it is almost certain that suburban women will turn out strongly and they favour the Democrats by an estimated 30 points, so they could carry the Democrats over the line in any event. 

 

The Senate

The Senate is a completely different story and looks almost certain to remain Republican. I backed them at 1.61 back in September and their odds have now dropped to just 1.28.

The Fivethirtyeight model gives the Republicans an 82% chance of holding the Senate, which is a little higher than the Betfair odds would suggest.

This may still present value even at 1.28 as the Democrats have an extraordinarily difficult map – or in other words they have 26 seats up for election where as Republicans have just 9 this time round. 

And whilst the Democrats have limited opportunities to pick up seats, a number of their own seats are in red states like North Dakota and Missouri which they may have problems defending.

So the Senate as a whole looks like a very heavy lift for the Dems, but let’s take a look at some of the individual Senate races.

 

Texas

Texas is shaping up to be one of the most exciting races of the election, to most people’s surprise. To be honest this shouldn’t even be close in a deep red state like Texas. But rising Democratic star Beto O’Rourke has surpassed all expectations and run a hugely successful grassroots campaign that has seen him visit all 254 counties in Texas and raise a phenomenal $38m in individual donations.

On the other hand, Republican Ted Cruz is perhaps not the most popular person on the planet.

Even his colleagues in the Republican party have been quoted as saying things like: “If someone shot Ted Cruz on the floor of the Senate, they wouldn’t be convicted,” of calling him “Lyin’ Ted” (that one of course came from Donald Trump who now wants Cruz to win so has taken to calling him “Texas Ted”).  My personal favourite though has to be from former House Speaker John Boehner who described Cruz as “Lucifer in the flesh.” 

Despite Cruz’s unpopularity and O’Rourke’s brave efforts however, polls have shown the Republican  consistently ahead and Fivethirtyeight give him a 78% chance of winning. 

I backed Cruz at 1.5 and he is currently around 1.2, which I think is about right.  However I think this could be one to watch closely in-running. If O’Rourke can run up some big numbers in the urban districts and gets strong youth turnout, it’s not out of the question he could win. 

 

Arizona

Arizona is a race where again there is quite a disparity between the odds and the forecasters’ predictions. Whilst Fivethirtyeight give Democrat Krysten Sinema a 64% chance of winning, Betfair actually have her as the outsider. I have backed her at 2.16 and think this is perhaps the Democrats’ best chance of a Senate pick-up.

 

Florida

The bookies see this as a close race and whilst Florida is virtually always close, the 1.83 about Democrat Bill Nelson looks favourable. He is the incumbent and may get a boost from the Democrat candidate for governor Andrew Gillum, who looks to be well ahead in his race. Nelson is rated as a 72% chance with Fivethirtyeight and with the national environment favouring Democrats by around 8 points, they appear to have a good chance of holding Florida.

 

Michigan

This looks as good as certain for the Democrats, with the Fivethirtyeight forecast giving Democrat incumbent Debbie Stabenow a 97% chance of winning and the polls giving her an average lead of 12 points. Yet Betfair is offering 1.21 on Stabenow, which suggests some uncertainty. I am happy to take those odds all day long.

 

Nevada

Generally you want to ignore early voting (the voting that happens in the two weeks or so before Election Day) and certainly you want to ignore the media narrative around it. One exception to this however is Nevada and the excellent early voting blog from Jon Ralston. He gathers all the data on people who have voted so far in Nevada by party registration and calculates the position of the race. Last time he got it spot on and made me a tidy few quid. I will be watching Jon’s numbers closely again this time. 

 

Governors

Sadly there is poor liquidity on Betfair for the Governors races and the bookies don’t seem to be offering odds at all. 

If liquidity picks up though, I would be happy to take anything above 1.6 about Andrew Gillum in Florida and 1.3 or above on Tom Wolf in Pennsylvania.

 

In-Running Betting Can Present the Best Opportunity

There can be great opportunities to make money in-running on politics these days. In the cases of both Brexit and Trump, the betting markets were very slow to react to the early results coming in. 

In both instances, it was clear from the early results which way the contests were going. In the case of Brexit, the first two results that were declared, from Sunderland and Newcastle, heavily favoured leave. The only way that remain still had a chance was if those results were massive “outliers.” It’s fairly unlikely that the first two results to come in would just happen to be huge outliers though. And the more results that came in, the more certain you could be they were not.

Yet the markets still saw it as roughly 50-50, even when a slew of strong results for leave had come in. Once you have around ten results come in from different parts of the country, the chance they are all big outliers is virtually nil.   

The same thing happened with Trump. Early results from places like Florida and Ohio suggested he was outperforming expectations. Once more results came in from the Midwest, it then became likely he was actually going to win. The results tend to be strongly correlated in Presidential elections and it was highly unlikely Trump was going to win Ohio by 8 points as he did but then lose other rust belt states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Yet the betting markets still saw the race as close even after all these results were going one way. They may have been spooked by an early exit poll that showed a big win for Clinton, but exit polls aren’t always accurate so I don’t put too much store in them. What matters are results and you can always learn more from the early results than the polls. 

So this time I will be watching the early results closely and be getting ready to take advantage. House races don’t tend to correlate as closely as Presidential ones so you need to be careful, but I will be comparing the early results with Fivethirtyeight’s forecasts to judge how things are going. If I see one party outperforming the forecasts significantly then I will look to act.

 

The Outliers

Conventional wisdom has it that the average of polls give the most likely prediction of an Election outcome, but recent history has suggested that outlier polls can actually prove more accurate. 

These are the polls that seem outlandish and way out of whack with the others, like Trump winning, or Corbyn gaining seats in the 2017 UK Election for example. 

This time there are some big outliers on each side – some with Democrats with a whopping 17 point lead and others seeing it as an even race. 

So it could be a worth a small investment on these outliers, although at the moment seat spreads don’t appear to be available unfortunately. If they do become available I will update this post.

 

 

Conclusion

The current House odds on the Democrats look generous to me so unless something drastic changes between now and Election Day I would see 1.6 as good odds. In the Senate Republicans are favoured, but the odds aren’t as generous at 1.28 currently.

Whilst there are some good odds on individual races at the moment, I am most looking forward to the in-running opportunity as the markets are often very slow to react to results coming in. 

I am also paying close attention to Jon Ralston’s early voting blog on Nevada. 

So there are my thoughts – we will see how close I am on November 7th – or if I am way off!

If you are going to have a punt on the Midterms, please gamble responsibly and only risk money you can afford to lose.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

barcelona celebrate goal

Over 3.5 Goals Strategy

The over/under 3.5 goals market is one of the most popular to bet on and offers some great opportunities to make a profit. We will take a look below at how the market works and some strategies for betting on it.

 

How Does the Over/Under 3.5 Goals Market Work?

Although sounding a little complicated at first, the over/under 3.5 goals market is in fact very simple.

It is basically about the number of goals that will be scored in a soccer match. You can either bet that there will be more than four goals, or less. 

Now you may be wondering how there can be 3.5 goals in a football match – how can half a goal be scored?

Well in fact the market is not suggesting half a goal will be scored, but rather it is setting up a binary outcome – your bet can only win or lose, it cannot draw.

If there are three goals or less, then it is under 3.5 goals. If there are four or more goals, it is over 3.5 goals.

Here are the possible outcomes in table format:

 

ScorelineOutcome 
0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0, 0-2, 2-1, 1-2, 3-0, 0-3 Under 3.5 goals 
3-1, 1-3, 4-0, 0-4, all other scorelinesOver 3.5 goals

 

So as you can see from the table above, if we have a scoreline like 3-1, 2-2, 3-2 etc, or indeed anything with four or more goals, it will be over 3.5 goals.

It should be noted that the market does not include extra time and penalties, it is just normal time (i.e. 90 mins + stoppage time). 

 

Advantages of Betting on Over 3.5 Goals

There are a number of advantages to betting on the over 3.5 goals market.

In the first instance, the over/under markets are very popular with punters so you should get good liquidity on the market. Although the over 3.5 market isn’t generally quite as popular as the over 2.5, it is still a good market in terms of liquidity, particularly in the matches with high scoring teams where there is a decent likelihood there will be four or more goals. 

At the same time, you generally get good odds on over 3.5 goals. Normally speaking the odds tend to vary between 5.0 for low-scoring teams, up to around 3.5 for an average game and down to odds-on in some instances.  

The likes of Man City and Liverpool for example will be closer to the 1.7 mark for over 3.5 goals if they are up against weak opposition. 

The over 3.5 goals market can seem a little risky to get involved in with the match needing 4 or more goals for your bet to win, but if the teams are free-scoring it can be an exciting wager as goals fly in one after another and you get closer to winning your bet. 

Finally, by selecting the right teams you can have a decent strike rate of winners as you would be surprised how often some teams score over 3.5 goals – but more on that below.  

 

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Disadvantages of Betting on Over 3.5 Goals

The main disadvantage of backing over 3.5 goals is that it can have a lower strike rate than backing the over 2.5 goals and over 1.5 goals markets.

The other thing of course is that it can be quite frustrating if you get three goals in a game and you are waiting for the fourth goal to be scored but it never arrives. Particularly if the teams are firing in shots on goal, hitting the woodwork and the keepers are having a blinder, it can be very tough to take at times.

 

Best Bookies for Over 3.5 Goals Strategy

As it is one of the most liquid markets around, you should have no problem obtaining good value for your bets on the over 3.5 goals market and pretty much all bookies will cover the market.

We find that Betfair generally has very good odds for the over/under 3.5 goals market, as does Bet 365.

And new customers can get up to £100 in free bets with Betfair (T&Cs apply, 18+). 

 

Over 3.5 Goals Strategies

Below we detail two strategies for betting on over 3.5 goals and how you can use the way the market operates to your advantage.

 

Strategy One – Looking at the Stats for Over 3.5 Goals

Wayne RooneyFirstly we are going to look at a straightforward betting strategy for taking on the over 3.5 goals market.

What we are going to do is study stats for the over 3.5 goals market and we are looking for matches where both teams have a high propensity to be involved in games with at least 4 goals. 

We want to avoid teams who are solid defensively and/or do not have a potent attack. Even if one team is a good attacking force, if the other has an excellent defence then you may not end up seeing the requisite number of goals to win your bet. 

So how do we find the relevant stats when looking for teams to bet on in the over 3.5 goals market? 

Well you can use a site like soccerstats to look at statistics for teams who have a high rate of over 3.5 goals.

If you go to the site, you can then select the league you are interested in at the top and then you can select the statistics option and “over/under total goals.”

This will give you a table as below, which shows the various over/under statistics for all the teams.

This table is taken from the Dutch Eredivisie which is a great league for over 3.5 goals. The football played in the Netherlands is very attacking and there are plenty of goals. 

As you can see from the table, the top teams for over 3.5 goals were Feyenoord and Willem II, with 50% of the their games over the course of that season finishing with four or more goals. PSV, Ajax and Utrecht also scored highly with 47% of their matches finishing over 3.5 goals. 

This is a good starting point for research on over 3.5 goals betting and shows you those teams who have around half of their games finish with the target score, so when these teams play each other this can be a good bet. 

However, it can be worth delving down deeper into the stats and looking for a more nuanced approach. 

Looking specifically at the away form for example in the table below, we can see that PSV, Feyenoord, Utrecht and Excelsior all had more of their away games finish in over 3.5 goals than home games. 

That may be because they play more on the break and hit teams hard with their pace and attacking precision. Often though you would get better odds for the game to finish over 3.5 goals when these teams are away from home, so this kind of detail can be useful when selecting your bets. 

Play close attention to the attacking styles of the teams and which ones may be more likely to score goals away than home.  

Another thing to pay close attention to is the team news, to be sure any of the key attacking players aren’t missing which would affect the chances of the game finishing above 3.5 goals. 

 

Strategy Two – Backing Over 3.5 Goals In-Play

An alternative over 3.5 goals strategy is to wait for the game to go in-running before placing your bet.

There can be excellent value if you wait until the second half in games before placing your over 3.5 goals bet.

If there have already been three goals in the game then you only need one more for it to become a winning bet on over 3.5 goals. Even when there have just been two goals in a game, if it is a really open game then it can be worth going over 3.5 goals as there will be better odds than just going over 2.5 goals at that stage.

This is where you can lie in wait and pounce. By monitoring the in-play stats – or even better watching the game live – you can see how open a game is and how likely it is that there will be more goals. You can see how many shots are going in on goal, how many corners there are and how much attacking play is taking place.

Using a tool such as the In-Play Scanner will identify opportunities when they arise. It uses a rating system to quantify all these stats and give you a number – the higher that number is, the more likely there will be a goal. 

It has proved to he a highly accurate predictor and a trial we ran of alerts based on the tool made £632 profit in a three month review.

The question of when to place your in-running bet is important though. We often think half-time is a good stage because you can asses how a game has progressed over the first half looking at all the stats and how you think the game will pan out in the second half. 

But really you should be ready to place the bet at any time if the scanner or your reading of the game indicates it is a good time for a bet. Normally if it is an open game with lots of chances that haven’t yet been taken then it’s a good time to pounce.  

It is amazing though how many games are cagey in the first half and then open up in the second half, with more goals being scored. So you can plan your bets by watching the stats carefully as to the best entry time. But this is a good over 3.5 goals strategy if used correctly.

 

Summary

The over 3.5 goals market is one of the most popular markets to bet on in football matches. 

It has excellent liquidity and the odds can vary hugely between the top teams at odds-on right up to 5.0 or 6.0 for low scoring teams, with the average odds for over 3.5 goals being around 3.5.  Football Header           

Through the use of statistics and looking at home and away form as well as in-play statistics, you can give yourself an edge over other punters in your betting on the market.

It can be a fun market to bet on, as you cheer on goals whilst not minding who will actually win the game.

As ever though, if you are going to use an over 3.5 goals strategy, please gamble responsibly and only risk money you can afford to lose.

 

Join the group of punters making up to £3500 per month with this top betting suite here. 

 

 

 

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Close up of golf ball on tee

Golf Trading Strategies

Golf is one of the most popular sports to bet on and attracts large amounts of interest particularly around major championships and big events like the Ryder Cup. 

However, whilst vast amounts of information has been written about trading other sports like football, horse racing and tennis, there is very little guidance available online about trading golf.

We thought it was about time we put that right and provided some examples of golf trading strategies for Betfair. 

After all, with such huge fluctuations in odds during a golf tournament – particularly during a final round when players are jockeying for the title – it should present the budding trader with plenty of opportunities to make a profit. 

We will delve into these further below, but first a quick introduction to how to trade the golf markets on Betfair.

 

How to Trade the Golf Markets on Betfair

Before we get into discussing specific trading strategies for the golf markets, it is probably worth a quick summary of how to trade golf on Betfair for those who may be unaware.

If you are going to trade golf tournaments, then really the only market worth talking about in terms of having enough liquidity to trade is the outright winner market. Most of the other markets like top 5 finish, top 10 finish and 1st round leader will have virtually no liquidity once they go in-running.

So you just want to concentrate on the tournament winner market. This week for example we have the Dunhill Links Championship on the European Tour. It has attracted a good field just after the Ryder Cup and there should be reasonable liquidity in-running.

So we go to the golf markets on Betfair and select the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, then click on Winner, which brings up the outright market:

 

As you can see, Brooks Koepka is the favourite for the event at 12.5. 

So an example of a trade would be if you thought Koepka was going to do well, you could back him at 12.5 and then lay him at a lower price during the tournament if he gets towards the top of the leaderboard. 

Let’s say you backed him for £10 at 12.5 and his price then falls to 6.0. You would be in a position then to take a profit of £10.80 whatever happens, by trading out of your position for equal gain.

Of course if Koepka struggles, his price would drift and you would then have to decide at what price you would want to lay him at and for what loss. 

Either way though, that is a simple example of a golf trade on Betfair and shows you how it works. 

 

A Word on Liquidity

Just quickly before we get onto the strategies, a brief word of caution about liquidity. 

It is not a good idea to trade the Betfair markets if there is not enough liquidity, as you won’t be able to get out of your position easily and in some cases would be forced to take poor value. 

Generally speaking, the top events like the majors, World Golf Championships and top PGA Tour events have strong liquidity and are ideal trading events. Usually events with the top players like Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson and co will also mean good liquidity. 

The events to be careful of are moderate European Tour events with fields lacking Europe’s top players – they will often have poor liquidity in-running. And certainly avoid women’s and seniors’ events, as they usually have dire liquidity and the options for trading will be very limited indeed. 

This may of course change in future but for the time being it is sensible to stick to the big events with the top players. 

OK, so having covered the issue of liquidity, let’s move on to discussing the strategies. 

 

 

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Strategy One – Trade the Course

The first strategy we use to trade the golf markets is what we have nicknamed “Trade the Course.”

What we mean by this is to use the way a course plays – with easy and difficult holes or stretches of holes – to set up your trades. 

Players just about to play an easy hole or stretch of holes have a good chance of seeing their price drop if they can pick up a shot or more over that stretch. 

Let’s look for example at one of the most famous golf courses in the world – Augusta National. The home of the Masters has many iconic holes that stick in the memory. But these holes vary significantly in their difficulty and players’ average scores over the holes. 

The 12th hole at Augusta has seen many a challenge come to a watery end.

The toughest stretch of holes at Augusta is the run from 10th to the 12th hole, which contain two long and testing par 4s that yield plenty of bogeys and double bogeys, as well as a tricky par 3 over water. These holes regularly play over par on average and most players will be delighted to come out of them at level par and would probably even often accept playing the holes in one over par.

So laying a player as they enter this stretch and backing them as they exit it can prove very profitable. If they struggle through it and throw in a double bogey or two then their odds will significantly increase. 

Of course not every player will play the stretch badly. Some will play it in even par, meaning you will probably be able to trade out for roughly break-even. The odd player may even play it under par. But that’s OK – you can’t win every trade, it’s about winning a majority of them and in this case the large majority of times players will struggle over these holes rather than play them well. The trade works even better in windy or cold conditions. 

Conversely, at Augusta the easiest holes are from 13 to 15 (you could even include 16 in that depending on where the pin is situated on the green), with two reachable par 5s and a relatively easy par 4, where many players will hit a wedge or short iron for their second shot. 

So this time you would back the player as they begin the 13th hole and lay them as they finish the 15th (or 16th if the pin is located on the low side of the green where the balls tend to feed down to). 

Augusta National presents some great trading opportunities.

If they pick up two or three birdies – or even throw in an eagle – then you will be looking at a decent profit on the trade. 

This trade doesn’t tend to work where you have leaders playing in the same group or groups close to each other so that they are playing the same holes at the same time, but in other circumstances we have found it to be a reliable and consistent trading method.

Each course will have its stretches of easy and tough holes. It is just a question of researching the course and looking at the stroke indexes for the holes. Obviously par 5s will normally play the easiest holes and yield the most birdies.

 

Strategy Two – Trading Shots

The second trading strategy we want to outline is one which involves trading around individual shots taken by players in-running.

This is a quickfire method that requires you to get in and out of trades very quickly, so it is essential to only operate this trade in tournaments with excellent liquidity – so the biggest tournaments with the top players. 

The idea is to take advantage of big movements in prices that can happen on the basis of a single shot, particularly where the market has already built in expectations about what is likely to happen.

Trading players when they are putting can pay dividends.

So for example it could be that a player has hit a great approach shot into five feet. The market will often shift as if they have already made the birdie, as people rush to grab a piece of the action, thus pushing the price lower. But if the player in question is a suspect short putter or has a particularly tricky putt, then it could prove effective to in fact lay them before they hit the putt. 

In the instance that they miss the putt, the price will tend to move back towards the level it was before they hit the approach shot – or sometimes even higher – giving you a very healthy profit. If they hole the putt however, you may only get a few ticks down or even not much movement at all, meaning a very small loss or even a risk-free trade. 

Conversely you could take a view on a very good putter who has just hit an approach shot into a green of around 20 to 25 feet. The market will normally presume they will two putt from there and if they do so the market is unlikely to move very much. But if they hole the putt, then their price can drop quite a lot. giving you a very good risk/reward ratio on the trade. 

This works best on those players who are good long putters. Jordan Spieth is an example of a player who holes a lot of medium to long putts, although he is quite well known for it so the market may anticipate him holing a little more than with most players. Other players who are good long putters and worth keeping an eye on include Brandt Snedeker, Alex Noren, Phil Mickelson, Kevin Kisner and Brian Gay. It is also worth checking the PGA Tour putting stats for up-to-date figures on who the best putters on tour are. 

The 17th at Sawgrass is a devilishly difficult hole.

You can apply the single-shot strategy to a variety of scenarios, including where players are about to hit a very tough shot (for example the 17th tee shot at Sawgrass or the approach shot at the 17th at St Andrews). 

The key is to identify where there is the potential for a big price move, but that the market has not anticipated yet. Successfully carrying out this trade comes with practice and it is probably best to paper trade this one until you have mastered it because it does need some speed and experience to execute. 

As we say, you need very good liquidity to operate it effectively so that you are not caught short unable to trade out your position. 

 

 

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Strategy Three – Trading Players in Contention

One of the most interesting strategies is to take a view on players who are in contention during the final round of a tournament.

This is an approach where you are looking to take on players who have shown themselves to be mentally suspect under pressure and to back those who have shown themselves to be able to close out tournaments when under the gun.

It can be very profitable but does take a degree of getting to know the players and their relative mental strength.

What you are looking for is a player who gets into the lead (or very close to the lead) during the final round and sees their odds drop to around evens or below, but where it is a tight situation with only a shot or two in it and a number of players close behind. 

If this player has shown themselves to be suspect when getting into position to win a tournament, then it can be a great time to lay them.

Some players really struggle when the finishing line approaches and find it difficult to continue playing their normal game. Their nerves get the better of them and suddenly their swing becomes erratic and their putts a little edgy. 

This lack of ability is usually reflected in stats for players who have a lot of second and third place finishes with very few wins. Some classic examples of this kind of player are Kevin Na and Charles Howell III. Sergio Garcia used to be one in major championships until he finally got over the line at Augusta, but you still would have made a lot of money by laying him when in contention in the majors up until then.

Justin Rose hitting an iron shot.

There are other players who are very consistent performers and rack up a lot of top tens but don’t win as often as people think or the odds often warrant. An example of this kind of player is Justin Rose, who has won only nine events in ten years on the PGA Tour, despite being in contention frequently.

Although he is undoubtedly an excellent golfer, Rose’s odds when he is contention will often crash in the same way as other players who have much more prolific winning records like Spieth, Johnson and Thomas, even though he doesn’t win nearly as often as those players. That is not to say Rose is mentally fragile, just that he doesn’t tend to hole as many putts as the other players at the very top of the game.

One thing to bear in mind when operating this strategy is that players’ mental strength is a changeable factor and it should not be presumed to be fixed. Sometimes a big breakthrough win can change a player’s whole outlook and make them much more confident when in contention in future. Be prepared to adjust your ratings of players’ mental strength over time, particularly after they’ve had a breakthrough win. 

 

General Trading Advice

It is important to remember that success in trading is as much about your mindset and discipline as about the strategies you use. 

If you don’t approach things in the right way and are undisciplined, then losses can ensue and can be quite painful. 

Here are some general guidelines to bear in mind when approaching your trading:

  • – Always have a clear plan before you start to trade – with specific entry and exit points and a plan of what to do if the trade goes against you.
  • – Only risk a fixed percentage of your bank on each trade and don’t vary it.
  • – Don’t go chasing losses or risking bigger amounts to try and make back a losing trade.
  • – Don’t over-trade. If you are feeling tired, losing concentration and starting to make mistakes, it is best to take a break and come back later or the next day when you are fresher.
  • – Don’t  try and trade more than one event at a time – certainly when starting off anyway. You will probably end up in trouble and not able to keep on top of multiple events at once.
  • – Consider using some trading software such as Bet Angel or Fairbot to assist your trading.

Hopefully following these simple guidelines will help you avoid making some of the mistakes that many traders commit when starting out. 

 

 

Conclusion – Golf Trading Strategies

That is our introduction to trading the golf markets on Betfair and we hope it has given you some ideas to get going.

Just remember to always be disciplined in your trading and don’t go chasing losses and trading on a whim. Have your strategies worked out in advance and stick to them.

If you do that, golf trading can be quite profitable – and also enjoyable when one of your set-ups plays out just the way you planned it.

As always, please gamble responsibly and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Check out the golf tipster that has made over £13,000 profit to £10 stakes here. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nadal at Wimbledon

Tennis Trading Strategies

Tennis is one of the most popular sports to trade on Betfair, with millions regularly traded in-play on matches.

The volatile nature of the odds, which can fluctuate wildly not just from game-to-game, but from point-to-point, make it an ideal medium for shrewd traders. Indeed, there are some who trade tennis professionally and make a living from it. 

With an almost year-round tennis schedule and multiple tournaments most weeks on the ATP and WTA tours, there are no shortage of matches to trade and no lack of angles to attack.

There is great interest in trading tennis in-play, meaning there is also usually excellent liquidity and you can normally get good value for your trades and most bets matched easily (if you are quick enough, that is).

So with all this going for it, you might think it would be easy to make money from trading tennis.

Well, sadly that is not the case and those who approach it without a clearly thought-out strategy can get badly burned and rack up substantial losses.

It is vital to have some trading strategies planned out in advance and to know when to apply them – and how. 

Below we have put together a guide with some tennis trading strategies that could be used, as well as some general advice on how to be a successful trader.

We hope you find the guide useful and it helps you to trade the tennis markets in-play.

 

How to Trade the Tennis Markets on Betfair

In case you aren’t aware of how the tennis markets work on Betfair, here is a brief summary. 

The idea of trading is to lay at a lower price than you back, thus giving you a profit from the trade. Here is an example from a match between Katerina Siniakova and Caroline Garcia:

The match is tight in the third set and we decide to back Caroline Garcia as the first part of our trade at 1.69 for £2.

 

Caroline Garcia then goes onto hold her serve and her price drops down to 1.42 to lay.

 

 

So we can then trade this out by simply clicking the yellow “Cash Out” button, thus giving us a profit of £0.38 whatever happens.

In very simple terms that is how to trade the tennis markets on Betfair. However, we obviously don’t just want to be randomly backing and laying players and hoping that the odds fall our way. We want to have some clear strategies that will help us make some profits. Let’s have a look at some of those strategies below.

 

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Strategy One – Back the Server

Perhaps the best known and most straightforward trading strategy in tennis is to back the server. This involves backing a player before they are about to serve and laying them at the end of their service game. The idea is obviously that you expect the player to hold their serve.

It is a fairly straightforward trade to operate and can prove very effective in certain situations. It is obviously best applied to those players who most regularly hold their serve. You can get detailed service stats from atptour.com, where they list the percentage of games that each player holds:

As you can see from the graphic, John Isner is the highest rated server at the time of writing and holds his serve an amazing 94% of the time, closely followed by Ivo Karlovic who holds serve at a rate of 92.7%.

So backing these servers at the start of their service game and laying off at the end of the game is likely to have a high probability of success as a trade.

Here is an example of a back the server trade from a game between Andy Murray and Zhizhen Zhang. 

It is a tight match in the third set and Murray is about to serve. His odds are 1.31:

Murray goes on to hold serve and his odds drop to 1.19 to lay, allowing an easy 12 pips of profit from the trade:

So that is the strategy in essence, but there are a few things to consider if you are going to follow the strategy of backing the server though:

  • – If the trade goes against you, the loss can be significant – often over 50 ticks – so be prepared for that and plan out your staking accordingly so it doesn’t bust your bank if the server is broken.
  • – There is typically more of a price movement for service holds/breaks in the final set, as the match gets closer to its conclusion than in the first set – and also towards the end of sets.
  • – The market tends to be more aware of the big servers like Isner, Roanic and Karlovic, so the tick movements for them holding serve are likely to be small. It can pay to follow some less well-known but effective servers with this strategy.
  • – It can also pay to look for players who are weak returners as much as those who are strong servers. If a player has a poor record of breaking serve then it can be profitable to back the other server, presuming they are a decent server of course.
  • – The surface is also important. There are significantly more service holds on grass for example than clay, so be careful if you are using this strategy on clay or other slow surfaces.

Bearing these points in mind and through careful player, match and surface selection, the back the server trading strategy can be effective on the Betfair markets.

 

Strategy Two – Lay the Server

The exact opposite to the strategy above, this time we are laying the server. 

Just as when backing the server we are looking for strong servers, in this case we are looking for weak servers – and good returners. If we can get a scenario with both at the same time then we are in a really good position. 

We can look towards the bottom of the ATP Tour’s servers list to see who the worst servers are. The ATP Tour website also has stats for returners, so we can see who the best ones are: 

As you can see, Rafael Nadal breaks his opponent’s serve a whopping 34.5% of the time, which is quite an incredible stat. 

Most of the time Nadal will be very short odds when he is playing against lesser players though, so there may not be much potential profit from laying his opponent when Nadal starts the match at 1.05 for example.

But when he is up against better opponents from inside the world’s top 10, he can be value to break serve. 

There are others on this list who may not be so famed for having a great return, like Schwartzman, Goffin and Chung, but they have excellent return stats and could well be value to use for the lay the server strategy.

Just as with the back the serve strategy, the idea is to lay the server just before their service game and back them at the end. If their serve is broken, then there will be a big swing in odds – thus delivering a large profit. 

The women’s game can be the best place to utilise this strategy, as breaks of serve are regular, particularly on the slower surfaces like clay. Some women only manage to hold onto their serve about half the time, meaning you have a good chance of a successful trade laying them every time they serve, particularly if they are up against a good returner. 

 

Strategy Three – In-Game Trading

The next strategy involves trading during a game and looking for quick gains after one or two points.

This is a little more risky as you need to be in and out quickly, but given the high liquidity of tennis on Betfair and by using some software such as Bet Angel, you should be able to get your bets matched the vast majority of the time.

What you are looking to do when trading in-game is to look for ideal entry points, again using the serve and return stats described above. 

Some of the best entry points are at specific scores, when a strong server or strong returner are down in a game.

So let’s say a strong server is down 15-40 or 0-30 on their own serve. The market would normally swing strongly against them at this stage, almost presuming that they are likely to go on and lose their service game. 

However, the stats actually show that a top server will normally go on to win the next two points around 50% of the time from those points in the game. The odds swing in your favour will be much greater than if they go on to lose the next two points (or point in the case of 15-40). Therefore it presents an excellent trading opportunity to get a greater than 50% return on an event with a likelihood of one in two (or 50/50).

At the same, laying bad servers who are ahead in their own service game by a certain margin can pay dividends.

So if a bad server is ahead in their game, good entry points such as 40-30 and 30-15 can prove very effective, as the market will be presuming at that stage they will go on to win the game. But as a bad server, they are opposable and if the returner wins the next point (or two points) then the odds swing in your favour will be considerable.

 

General Trading Advice

So there are three tennis trading strategies which should help you get started and give you some ideas going forward about how to trade the Betfair tennis markets successfully.

If you want more detailed guidance and further strategies to trade, then check out Trade Shark Tennis, which is a top trading guide. 

In addition, it is worth bearing in mind some general trading advice if you are considering getting involved in playing the markets. If you don’t have the right mindset to start off with then you can get badly burned when trading. So here are a few pointers to keep in mind:

  • – Always have a clear plan before you start to trade – with specific entry and exit points and a plan of what to do if the trade goes against you.
  • – Only risk a fixed percentage of your bank on each trade and don’t vary it.
  • – Don’t go chasing losses or risking bigger amounts to try and make back a losing trade.
  • – Don’t over-trade. If you are feeling tired, losing concentration and starting to make mistakes, it is best to take a break and come back later or the next day when you are fresher.
  • – Don’t  try and trade more than one event at a time – certainly when starting off anyway. You will probably end up in trouble and not able to keep on top of multiple matches at once.
  • – Consider using some trading software such as Bet Angel or Fairbot to assist your trading.

Hopefully following these simple guidelines will help you avoid making some of the mistakes that many traders commit when starting out. 

 

Summary – Tennis Trading Strategies

That is our introduction to trading the tennis markets on Betfair and we hope it has given you some ideas to get going.

Just remember to always be disciplined in your trading and don’t go chasing losses and trading on a whim. Have your strategies worked out in advance and stick to them.

If you do that, tennis trading can be quite profitable – and also enjoyable when one of your set-ups plays out just the way you planned it.

As always, please gamble responsibly and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Check out our number one recommend tennis system here. 

 

 

 

 

 

ryder-cup-pic

Get Your Ryder Cup Tips Here!

The Ryder Cup starts this Friday at Le Golf National in Paris.

It is set to be an epic showdown as Europe try to win back the trophy from the USA, who triumphed last time at the Hazeltine Golf Club by a comfortable margin of 17-11.

Despite Europe’s strong record over the last 20 years – particularly on home soil – the US are favourites for the matches, currently best priced at just below evens at 19/20, while Europe are available at 5/4 and the draw can be backed at 12/1.

America come into the event off the back of Tiger Woods’ emotional win at the Tour Championship on Sunday and they currently hold three out of the four major championships. 

Even their rookies look formidable, with the likes of Justin Thomas and Bryson DeChambeau having racked up multiple PGA tour wins this year and they will go into the event with plenty of confidence. 

But Europe will feel buoyed by Justin Rose having recently claimed the world number one ranking and Fedex Cup and with Francesco Molinari having won the Open in July.

They will also be fired up by the return to the team of “Mr Ryder Cup” Ian Poulter and young guns making their debut like Spanish sensation Jon Rahm – a probable partner for Sergio Garcia – and ice cool Swede Alex Noren, who won the French Open at this course just a few months ago.

Whatever happens, it is set to be a titanic battle and the atmosphere will be electric.

If you are looking for some top quality tips to liven up proceedings, here are some top golf tipsters we can recommend:

  • – Our number one recommended golf tipster the Golf Betting Expert has made over £10,000 profit to just £10 stakes since starting up and you can get a 15-day trial – including their tips for the Ryder Cup – for just £7 by clicking here. 
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It should be a cracking weekend’s viewing and let’s hope for a few winners along the way too!

 

 

 

 

 

Ladbrokes Odds Boost

Ladbrokes Odds Boost – Explained

Ladbrokes Odds Boost is a special promotion available for all Ladbrokes customers. It does what it says on the tin: it boosts the odds on selected bets.

All you need to take part is a current Ladbrokes account. For the duration of the promotion, and there is no indication that it will end in the foreseeable future, every Ladbrokes account holder will receive one odds boost token a day.

To check that you have an odds boost token, log in to the ‘My Account’ area. If you have a valid token, it will appear there along with a brief explanation of which markets you can use it for. Unlike some similar offers, rather than choosing from a list of qualifying events, you can choose which bets to enhance the odds of as long as they are included in the qualifying markets.

Use It or Lose It

It is, however, a case of use it or lose it. You can’t carry it over. If you don’t use it on the day you receive the token, it will, like Cinderella, expire at midnight; though to be precise, it will expire at exactly one minute before midnight. However, it is very versatile. You can use it for pre-event bets, in play bets, and multiple single line bets across all sports markets including virtual sports. You can’t apply it to each way bets or full cover bets such as Yankees and Lucky 15s.  Whether you use it or not, you will still get another token the following day beginning at midnight

How Do You Use It?

If you have a valid odds boost token, then when you create a betting slip in a market that qualifies for odds boost, you will see you have an option to use your odds boost token. If you do so, it will be applied to all selections on your betting slip. There are some restrictions. While there is no minimum stake or maximum odds restriction, the maximum stake that you can enhance the odds on is £50. For non-VIP members, if your betting slip exceeds that stake, then the boost will be applied to the first £50 only. If you are a VIP member, the maximum stake is £500.

How much is Ladbrokes odds boost worth?

Ladbrokes don’t state an actual value, and some punters report different amounts too. However, in our experience, it is usually around 6%, though that isn’t a fixed amount. While that might not seem that high, statistically it makes a difference especially if you use it on a regular or daily basis.

Anything else I need to know?

There certainly isn’t anything sinister about the promotion. It is a genuine offer that, when used wisely, will boost your winnings over time. There are no clawbacks or limitations on liquidating your enhanced winnings. However, as we always do with any promotion, we strongly advise that you carefully read Ladbrokes terms and conditions.

Be aware that you can’t use it with any free bets; it can be used with cash bets only. And it doesn’t apply if odds have been boosted by a different Ladbrokes promotion such as Price Boost and Super Price boost.

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