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cheltenham racecourse pic

What are the Bankers on Each Day of the 2019 Cheltenham Festival?

Cheltenham Racecourse” (CC BY 2.0) by UAV Filming

The 2019 Cheltenham Festival will soon be upon us. That means 28 races across four days of National Hunt horse racing that comes thick and fast.

As is the case every year, some horses are hotly fancied to win certain events throughout the prestigious meeting. We break down the 2019 Cheltenham Festival day-by-day and highlight which horses are the banker bets this year. 

Tuesday – Benie Des Dieux

Champion Hurdle day always provides a sensational start to the meeting. The opening day’s sure-fire bet this year is clearly Benie Des Dieux in the 2m 4f Mares’ Hurdle. This race comes hot on the heels of the Champion Hurdle itself.

Willie Mullins is an absolute master when it comes to training mares. He’s dominated the race since it was introduced at the Festival and Benie Des Dieux is the defending champion. She looks to have a much easier time of doing so than she could have, with major rivals Apple’s Jade and stable companion Laurina targeting the Champion Hurdle instead.

While Benie Des Dieux is odds-on with bookmakers as a result, she simply isn’t facing top calibre opposition in their absence. There are others from her own stable such as Limini and Stormy Ireland, but these lack her fine form at the highest level.

Wednesday – Altior

While Tiger Roll is all the rage to defend his Cross Country Chase crown on Ladies’ Day, he’ll face more serious opposition over a far greater distance than Altior. Nicky Henderson’s awesome stable star is unbeaten in 17 outings over hurdles and fences and has plenty of opponents running scared.

Altior (left) is among 2019 Cheltenham Festival bankers” (CC BY-SA 2.0) by Carine06

Given he won the Queen Mother Champion Chase last year off the back of a last-minute lameness scare, we should see an even better Altior as he goes for back-to-back triumphs. There are more Cheltenham tips from Betting.Betfair which provide even better value but, with so many swerving this race, it looks at his mercy.

Looking beyond Altior in the win only market is very brave. He’s long odds-on with good reason, and in the betting without him, a case can be made for quite a few. It won’t be clear until final declarations which of the Mullins horses entered in the Champion Chase will take Altior on and he has the beating of all them anyway.

Thursday – Paisley Park

Henderson’s highly-regarded Epatante could easily be considered a banker for the Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle on St Patrick’s Thursday. Paisley Park from the Emma Lavelle stable in the Stayers’ Hurdle over three miles is preferred, however, as this race has fallen apart somewhat.

Last year’s winner Penhill misses the defence of his title through injury, while Samcro also misses the Festival. With these two major players and Irish raiders not running, Paisley Park has popular veteran Faugheen up against him.

There’s a big age gap between the two and, while Faugheen will attract sentimental support, Paisley Park simply has more scope to improve again and make further progress. Although the consistent Grade 1 performer Supasundae is also a contender if lining up, the favourite is more than worthy.

Friday – Sir Erec

And finally, on Cheltenham Gold Cup day, the Triumph Hurdle is set up to be the finest hour in the career of Sir Erec so far. Trained by Joseph O’Brien, the four-year-old used to run on the Flat for father Aidan. He posted very smart form in that sphere and was then bought by leading Irish owner JP McManus.

After back-to-back Leopardstown victories, including at Grade 1 level, Sir Erec is a hot favourite for the Triumph. He was impressive in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle and, although facing a respected opponent in Paul Nicholls’ Quel Destin, is still unexposed over the obstacles.

 

 

 

Cheltenham

Get Top Tips for Cheltenham!

It’s nearly upon us – yes tomorrow is the start of the “Greatest Show on Turf” – aka the Cheltenham Festival.

We hope you are ready for a week of top-class jumps racing.

If you’re anything like us – you’ll want to boost your profits at this year’s festival.

Well fortunately we have a service that has a record of doing just that.

This is a tipster that we have reviewed here at Honest Betting Reviews and we gave it a strong recommended rating, having made 38 points profit during our trial and over 900 points profit since starting tipping.

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And it has a record of picking high value priced winners at Cheltenham that is second to none.

The service has made an astonishing 298 points and £14,900 in profits at the Cheltenham Festival to £50 stakes since 2010.

Last year it made 26 points profit for its members, which equates to £1,300 tax free profit to £50 level stakes, with winners at 28/1, 16/1 and 12/1.

And this service was voted the Number One Horse Racing Service of 2018 by you, the members of Honest Betting Reviews.

What service are we talking about?

Well you can check it out here and get all their tips for Cheltenham.

Act now before their special Cheltenham page is taken down.

 

 

 

 

casino

Best Casino Game Odds

Going to the casino is a favorite pastime of many people. The idea that with one hand, or deal, and a little bit of luck we can have a huge win is too good to resist.

If you’re going to go to the nearest casino – or having a little flutter online – to try and hit the jackpot, what games can get you that payoff? Where are you most likely to make your fortune? Today we’re going to look at the most popular casino games and see which ones have the best odds and the worst odds. 

When playing games in a casino, there is something called a “house edge.” The house edge is the advantage that the casino has in a game. Essentially, this is how likely it is for the casino to win the game, rather than for the player to win. So, which games have a lower house edge and favor the player?

 

Roulette

Roulette is a game we all recognize. It is a simple game that anyone can understand and play. The roulette wheel has 37 slots. These slots are numbered 0 and then 1-36. The wheel is spun, and a small steel ball is spun in the opposite direction. It will eventually fall into one of the slots.

As a player, you can bet on almost anything. You can bet on black numbers, red numbers, even or odd numbers, and on high or low numbers (1-18 or 19-36). All these bets have a 48.6% chance of landing in European Roulette and pay out at even money. 

If you want to increase your payouts, you can bet on columns, or dozens, and end up with a 1-in-3 chance of winning. You can also bet on groups of six, four or two numbers together. If you’re looking to make your fortune, you can bet on a single number, which pays 35-1.

The house edge in roulette varies depending on which type you are playing. On European roulette (i.e. with one zero), the house edge is 2.7%, whereas on American roulette (with two zeros) the house edge is 5.26%.

 

Blackjack

Blackjack is one of the most popular casino games, and for good reason. The rules are simple: Dealer and player compete to get as close to the number 21 as they can without going over. The one who gets closest wins.

When playing against the dealer, he is required to keep drawing cards until he has at least 17. If he has less than 17, the dealer has no option other than to keep drawing until he has 17-21, or he goes over 21. This is called a “bust.”

If the dealer busts and you don’t, you win. If the dealer scores between 17-21, you simply have to get a higher score than he does. If you get a higher score, you win. This simplicity makes blackjack an easy game to play, and an easier game to win. In fact, the odds of winning at Blackjack are really good, at pretty much 50/50. 

The house edge in Blackjack is less than one percent (0.28% to be precise) if playing with just one deck. This means that the house has almost no advantage over the player. On top of that, as a player, you are only competing with the house, and not with the players around you.

 

Craps

Craps is not a simple game. For an in-depth explanation of how craps works, you can go here. The simple explanation? There is a shooter who rolls the dice. You can bet on the roll. If you want, you can bet pass on the come-out roll being either 7 or 11. If it is either, you win. You can bet on the “don’t pass” line, meaning if the shooter rolls a 2 or 3, then you win. There are a few more rules which complicate the game a bit, but once you’ve played it a few times you will understand it.

The odds in Craps are what make it such a good game to play. There are a few strategies to master with craps, but if you can figure them out, the house edge ends up being about 2 percent, giving the player a good chance of winning.The pass/don’t pass bets have a house edge of just 1.4%.

Craps isn’t quite as player friendly as blackjack, but it still has much better odds than the video poker games do.

 

Baccarat

Baccarat is another casino game of chance. When you play baccarat, you have three possible bets: the player’s hand, the banker’s hand, or a tie. Baccarat is very similar to Blackjack. Instead of playing to 21, however, the game is played to nine. Cards 2-9 are worth their number value. The Ace is worth 1 point, and all face cards are worth 0 points.

In this game, the two cards drawn are added together. If the sum is a single digit number, that is the sum of the hand (2+3+5). Now, if the numbers added together equal a double-digit number, the left number is dropped (9+9=18, so this equals 8). Now, when trying to figure out how to win baccarat, the players hand wins 44 percent of the time. The banker’s hand will lose 45 percent of the time. And they are rare, but ties happen about ten percent of the time (and pay the most).

If playing to best advantage – and the best value bets are normally the player bets rather than the banker bets – then the house edge is around 1.5%.

 

Slots

Slots are machines where you are trying to match certain symbols in a row or in given sequences to give a specified return. 

There are a huge number of online slots games these days, often designed around specific branded themes – whether it be the popular Blood Suckers (based around a vampire theme), Mega Moolah, Jurassic Park, Wheel of Fortune and Game of Thrones. 

There are essentially two different types of slots: progressive and non-progressive. The progressive ones have a much higher jackpot, with some games (like Mega Moolah) often having jackpots of €1m. They often have a higher number of lines to play however and to get a chance of winning the jackpot you normally have to play the full bet possible and all lines. Non-progressive slots by contrast do not have such high payouts but pay out more frequently, thus making them more attractive to players who prefer a steady return. 

The house edge varies by each slot and can be anything between 2% and 10%. In terms of online slots, the best value games tend to be 1429 Uncharted Seas (1.4% house edge), Blood Suckers (2%) and Immortal Romance (3.1%). 

 

 

Conclusion

As you can tell the house edge varies a lot by casino game and even within each game depending on how you play it. There are of course other games we haven’t mentioned here too: video poker tends to have a house edge of between 0.5% and 5% and Caribbean Poker has a house edge of 5% for example. 

When you’re trying to figure out what casino game is the best one to play, keep these things in mind. Craps is complicated, but the odds are good. Roulette can give a high payout if betting on individual numbers, but the house edge is large, especially on American roulette.

Blackjack has the smallest house edge at under 1% so from the point of view of giving you the best chance of winning, that is the game to focus on.

Of course, whichever game you play it is important to remember that casinos always have an edge over you, unless you are using a bonus offer to weight the odds a little more in four favour. LV Bet has some good bonus offers, including a £1000 bonus at the moment which is worth checking out (T&Cs apply, 18+, new customers only).

 

 

 

 

man losing at slots

Why Most Gamblers Lose Money

The facts are pretty stark – over 98% of people who gamble lose money overall. That’s pretty shocking – it means very few people actually have anything to show from their betting activity and some people have sadly made huge gambling losses.  

And yet millions of people around the world still carry on betting, many of them on a regular basis.

So what’s going on? Why do so many people lose money gambling and is there a way to join the elite 2% who make an overall profit? 

We’ll take a look at these questions below. 

 

“The House Always Wins”

You’ve probably heard the popular phrase “The House Always Wins.” It is usually used in reference to casinos, who have an in-built edge on all games they offer.

What it means is that whilst you may have a lucky evening occasionally and come out having won some money, over the course of the millions of bets placed each year the casino is statistically guaranteed to make a profit.

This in-built edge is often referred to as RTP, which means “return to player” and can be quantified so you can see exactly how much of a disadvantage you have against the casino on each game.

The casino has an in-built edge which means it always wins over time.

If we take roulette as an example, imagine you are betting on red. There are 18 red numbers, 18 black numbers and one green number, 0. So your chances of winning are 18 in 37, which means the house has a 2.7% edge over you.

And that’s only on European roulette – in the US there are two zeros so the house edge is even bigger at over 5%. So for every £100 bet, the casino takes an average of £5 profit. 

The house edge varies by game, with the house having only a 0.28% advantage in Blackjack to over 5% in Caribbean Stud Poker. 

In sports betting, the house edge is normally called the “overround.” In football it tends to be around 5% when comparing the best odds across the market but in horse racing can be even worse, often over 20% when looking at starting prices.

On popular sporting events on the exchanges you will often see a very low overround of less than 1%. But you have to factor in commission which will eat into your winnings. Commission can be as high as 5% with Betfair.

What all this means is that unless you are able to identify instances where the odds are wrong – often referred to as “value” – then the more you bet, the more likely you are to lose. Ouch!

And of course if we are talking about casino games then the odds are fixed so there is no chance to find value – quite simply the more you play the more likely you are to lose money (unless you happen to get very lucky and hit a jackpot or defy the odds of course). 

Denise Coates, CEO of Bet365, which made over £650m profit in 2017

So taking all this into account, it really isn’t surprising that most gamblers lose money. The house has have an in-built advantage that means over time they will win and punters – overall – will lose.  It’s a mathematical certainty. You have probably heard the phrase “you never see a poor bookie.” Well, it’s pretty accurate. Just for the record, Bet365 made £682m profit last year, whilst Paddy Power Betfair made £473m.  That’s all money they took from us, the punters.

But then at the same time, there are some people who do make money gambling. A select few make a lot of money – Patrick Veitch, for example, apparently took £10m off the bookies in 8 years and figures like Alan Woods and Bill Benter have made hundreds of millions from betting. 

So what’s going on? Why do some people make money whilst the rest of us lose? 

Let’s have a look at these questions below.

 

What Type of Gambler Are You?

When looking at why people lose money betting, it is necessary to break people down into different categories of bettors, depending on their behaviour and goals. We would say there are essentially four categories of gamblers.

 

1. The Pro

This is the elite 2% of gamblers referred to earlier who actually make a profit from their betting. They approach their betting like a business, are cool-headed, disciplined and devote a great deal of time and effort to finding value. They keep meticulous records of all their bets, refine their strategy over time and are always trying to make sure they have an edge over other punters. 

 

2. The Recreational Gambler

This type of gambler sees betting as a bit of fun, something to make a match they are watching more interesting or to have some banter with their mates down the pub. They normally just bet a fiver or tenner and don’t spend much time researching form or studying stats. For them it’s just a form of entertainment – something they do occasionally and don’t really expect to make a profit from overall. That’s fine with them though – the odd win here and there keeps them happy and they are only risking a tiny percentage of their income on betting, so even if all their bets lost it wouldn’t be a problem for them. 

 

3. The Addict

This type of gambler suffers from an addiction and is always looking for the next opportunity to gamble. They tend to bet on a whole variety of things from casinos to slots and bingo, scratch cards and any number of games of pure luck, hoping the next win will be the big one that makes back all their previous losses.

They are probably in denial about how much money they have lost and don’t keep records of their bets. They gamble in a scattergun way, betting at random and compulsively. For this group it would be best to stop gambling altogether and seek help, as it is unlikely they will ever make a profit from betting and risk suffering considerable harm by continuing.

 

4. The Apprentice

The fourth category is made up of those who understand most of the basics around gambling such as the concept of value, the bookies’ overround, how markets work and so on. They could, with the right attitude and by applying themselves, become profitable at gambling but at the moment there are things holding them back and tripping them up. It is on this group that we want to focus our attention now. 

 

Where It’s Going Wrong

For those in the “Apprentice” group, there are some classic mistakes they tend to make that contribute to them losing money. We have made many – if not all – of these mistakes ourselves so know how easy it can be to fall into them. But learning to spot them and to avoid repeating them is the key to moving out of the Apprentice group and into the Pro group. 

 

Mistake #1: Jumping From System to System

This is one of the most fundamental mistakes aspiring gamblers make. Whilst recognising that following an expert could help them become a better gambler, they go about it in the wrong way. 

Rather than picking a tipster (or group of tipsters) and sticking with them, they hop about from one tipster to another, giving up on each one as soon as it hits a losing streak. What this means is that they are consistently losing money, because they never stay long enough with a tipster to see it succeed in the long run. After a losing week or month they give up, taking an incredibly short-term approach to their betting.

This sort of mentality is very damaging and greatly inhibits the gambler’s chances of becoming profitable. They are psychologically unable to deal with losing runs and without changing their mindset to a more long-term one are unlikely to ever make money from gambling. 

 

Mistake #2. Wanting to “Get Rich Quick”

In a similar vein is the gambler who is looking to “get rich quick.” This person gets roped in by the alluring promises of riches made by the sales pages of online betting systems, with stories about how some “ordinary bloke” discovered a brilliant betting strategy that lets him live the life of his dreams with flash cars, exotic holidays and the like. 

These betting systems almost always turn out to be duds and not only has the buyer had to fork out for the system, but they have lost a fair amount of cash from following it too.

The sad fact though is that rather than learning from the experience, they will get roped in again not long after by another system making the same promises of untold riches. 

 

Mistake #3: Not Having a Big Enough Betting Bank

This is perhaps the most common mistake the aspiring gambler makes. Having discovered a promising strategy, they don’t allocate a big enough betting bank to following it, staking far too much money on each bet and therefore not having enough money to withstand the losing runs.

Inevitably a downturn will hit at some stage and they will either get wiped out completely or be so dispirited they give up on the strategy, even if it was a long-term winning one. Had they allocated a more sensible bank and smaller stakes, they would have been able to withstand the losing run and to enjoy the long-term profits that would ensue.

 

Mistake #4: Not Keeping Records

There is no prospect of identifying where your weaknesses are and improving unless you keep detailed records of all your bets. Even worse, you may not have an accurate picture of what your overall profit/loss figures are. Gamblers can be guilty of self-delusion at times, only remembering the wins and forgetting the losses. That thought-process can be damaging, potentially hiding the extent of a gambler’s losses.

 

Mistake #5: Not Spreading Risk

Any system or strategy has its ups and downs, no matter how good it is. Putting all your eggs in one basket and following just one strategy is risky. Much like in the stock market where people don’t just put all their money into one share but instead spread it around a of portfolio of different shares, so it can pay to do the same with betting. Picking a portfolio of tipsters and systems and allocating a suitable bank to each of them can help to spread the risk and allow for the ups and downs of individual tipsters to be smoothed out across the portfolio. 

 

The Mistakes – Summary

These are just five of the main mistakes that gamblers make but of course there are many more like chasing losses or risking more money than you can afford to lose. Those are ones we would associate more with the “addict” rather than the “apprentice” though and it is these five that are the most common with gamblers who have the potential to make a profit but just aren’t doing so at the moment.  

 

Getting It Right

By identifying the most common mistakes aspiring gamblers make it allows us to identify what people could change so they can get it right and start making a profit. Here are some suggestions in that direction:-

  • – Don’t jump about from system to system and give up as soon as you hit a losing run. It is advisable to follow something for at least 3 months before judging its performance. That is our minimum review time on this site and we often run reviews for 6 months before passing judgement – and then continuing following services for years after that. Find some good tipsters and systems and stick with them, don’t give up at the first hurdle. 
  • – Avoid big bold sales claims promising you fantastic returns. The old phrase “if it seems too good to be true it probably is” contains a lot of wisdom. If something claims to make thousands of pounds per month in profit, ask yourself why the author is selling it for a fraction of that. Wait to see if the system stands up to testing from a trusted third party like a review site, or if its results aren’t independently verified anywhere then just avoid it – most likely it’s a scam. 
  • – Make sure you have a big enough betting bank. It is easy not to allocate a big enough betting bank to following a tipster or system. Often the tipster themselves won’t even advise a big enough bank. But if you have a suitable bank it will make it a lot less stressful to follow the tipster and those drawdowns will be much more bearable. A rule of thumb is look at the advised betting bank and then double it – that will probably be more appropriate.
  • – Compound your winnings. Using a bigger betting bank will mean smaller stakes, but you can grow those stakes by compounding the winnings or using a fixed percentage of your bank (e.g. 1%) on each bet. Einstein called compounding “the eighth wonder of the world” and if you allow your bank to grow in this way then the rewards can be quite amazing.
  • – Don’t place random bets. When there’s a big sporting event on with lots of hype around it, there is a temptation to put a bet on to make it more interesting. Other times you may be bored and fancy a wager. Don’t do it – professionals never would.  
  • – Keep records of all your bets. This will allow you to keep on top of all your betting and see where you are going wrong – and right, thus facilitating improvement. 
  • – Spread your risk. Decide how much money you have to invest, then split that investment between say 5-10 different tipsters or systems, making sure of course that each one has a sufficient bank allocated to it. 

If you follow these simple guidelines then chances are you will be well on your way to improving your betting. 

 

Conclusion – Joining the 2%

The simple fact is that most gamblers lose money because bookies have an in-built advantage. This is called the “house edge” and can be anywhere from 1% up to 30%.  So in other words, for every £100 that is bet, the bookie takes £1-£30 in profit. In the case of exchanges, you must pay commission of around 2% – 5% on all your winnings, which you must also overcome if you want to make a profit.

That means unless you are able to identify value bets – instances where the bookie has put up the wrong odds for a selection – then the more you bet, the more you are likely to lose. 

There are some types of gambler who are never likely to overcome the house edge – what we term the “recreational gambler” and the “addict” – because of their own flaws.

There are other gamblers however who have the potential to become profitable – or at least to improve their performance – if they took the kinds of steps we have listed above. 

Overall it is about a change of mindset from one of wanting to “get rich quick” to approaching betting in a more professional, measured way. If you were running your own business, you would keep records, remove unnecessary expenses, analyse which things are making the most profit, invest carefully and so on.

That is the same approach to take in betting and it is the approach that the elite 2% of gamblers who make money take. 

Ultimately of course, making money will also rely on having a profitable strategy. If you have the time and skills to develop your own strategy, then great, with the approach we have identified above you could turn that strategy into a valuable source of income. 

If not, there are a number of strategies we have found – listed on our Winning Systems page – which could help give you the edge over the bookies. There is matched betting of course, which if done right can guarantee you a profit over the bookies, but there are also some very good tipsters like those at omegatipsters.com and trading strategies like Exponential Bet that have proved their edge over the long term. 

If you choose any of these systems or indeed choose your own strategy, we hope this article has given you some understanding of why most gamblers lose money and how you can avoid being one of them. And most of all, please make sure you gamble responsibly and only risk money you can afford to lose.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

horse jumps

How to Search for an Online Tipster with Credibility

There is an increasing number of online tipsters providing selections on a daily basis and it’s impossible to follow every single one of their tips without breaking the bank. A number of these sites have sprung up on social media over the last decade with many of them posting so-called profit margins and winning sequences hourly and it is extremely tempting to jump on the bandwagon. With so many options at our fingertips, how do you start to narrow down the field and find a tipster who will genuinely help increase your betting balance?

Source: Mirror Sport via Twitter

Unfortunately, some tipsters cannot be trusted and are simply looking out for themselves and these sites will often be incredibly vocal on social media such as Twitter and Facebook. However, if you conduct thorough research and take a long-term approach to finding a tipster, you’ll soon realise that there are hundreds of good guys making regular profit across a number of different sports. 

Long Term Results 

Every tipster should log their results on a daily basis and if you can’t find evidence of a profit/loss sheet on their website then this should immediately ring alarm bells. Message the site directly and ask to see evidence of recent bets and they should be able to provide a comprehensive list of weekly totals. If they can’t produce this or they make constant excuses, it is advised to walk away. Also, ensure that their results have not been edited or amended to reflect favourably on the tipster. Keep a separate list of their daily selections and ensure that all of these are logged at the end of the day on their page. If not, they cannot be trusted. It is also a good idea to check if the results have been verified on an independent review or proofing site, much like this one!

Source: RedFox News via Twitter

Explanation and Context

Tips will come in many different forms. Some sites will simply send a list of horses or teams without any further explanation whilst others will produce detailed write-ups and analysis of their thought process. Of course, it’s down to personal preference but it’s always better to see some working out and allows followers to agree or disagree with their rationale. Experts who produce free daily horse racing tips for sites such as betting.betfair will always detail their working out and offer reasons for their pick and this is a tactic which should be deployed by all tipsters. If you’re serious about making a profit, you should be able to use your own initiative and decide whether to agree or disagree with a selection. If you find that the tipster has given very few details about the horse in question, this makes it incredibly difficult. 

Communication 

Finally, communication is absolutely key to running a successful tipping service on social media. If you have a query, it should be easy to get in touch and customers should expect to receive a helpful reply within a few hours. Some services will block users who question their tips or ask for a breakdown of recent profit margins and that is a very bad sign. Accounts should treat each of their clients with respect and should offer a transparent service and make it easy to follow each of their tips. If you receive a brush-off or no reply at all, they probably aren’t worth persisting with. 

Don’t fall into the trap of signing up for the first service that you stumble across. Every punter will have different needs and it’s imperative that you match the right tipster to your preferred way of betting. Take your time, speak to them directly and ensure that they have a solid set of recent results to back up their claims – ideally independently verified by a site like ours – and you will soon find yourself narrowing down the field and being able to sort the wheat from the chaff. 

 

 

 

 

tennis racquet and balls

Who is the Best Tennis Tipster?

Tennis is one of the most popular sports to bet on, with nearly year-round events and great liquidity on the markets.

We have searched the internet far and wide to find the top tennis tipsters and continue to review new tipsters here on the site in our quest to find the best.

There aren’t as many tennis tipsters out there as football or horse racing ones, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t some high quality ones. 

With a wealth of stats now available online and so much tennis shown on TV, there is ample opportunity to study the form and create some profitable angles to approach tennis matches from. And this is what the top tipsters do in finding their edge in the markets and making their profits. 

Some of them have done so very successfully and the list below is our Top 5 Tennis Tipsters based on our extensive research and testing:-

 

Our Top 5 Tennis Tipsters

So here are our list of the best tennis tipsters and betting systems we have found, from five down to one. 

 

5. Ace Tennis Previews

Ace Tennis Previews is an Australian-based tipping service that has been providing tips since 2013, initially on Twitter but more recently via their own website. They have built up a big following on Twitter with over 10,000 followers and with their expert knowledge you can see why people have been so keen to follow their tips. 

Their focus is primarily on the lesser-known players who they feel they have an edge over the market on, as others may not follow their particular games and intricacies so closely. That edge appears to be strong, with around a 10% ROI (return on investment) achieved on the tips to date. From reading the in-depth analysis you receive with the tips you can see their knowledge is indeed very in-depth and a great deal of research goes into the selections. 

 

4. Tennis Only

This service is from the Tipstrr platform and is the appropriately-named  “Tennis Only” – indicating that it tips just on tennis and no other sports. That choice to specialise certainly seems to have worked very well for them, with an excellent return on investment of over 20% achieved to date with a very high strike rate of over 60%. 

Many of the tips are accumulator bets including doubles, trebles and four-folds and come in both men’s and women’s tournaments, mainly on the main ATP and WTA tours. The bets are quite selective, with just four tips per week so they are looking at value bets rather than volume. In grand slams there will be more bets of course, as would be the case with most tennis services. 

With strong results achieved to date, Tennis Only is a service worth checking out.  

 

 

3. Love Winners

Love Winners is a sports betting service that covers a range of sports, including tennis. Their tennis service is impressive, having made considerable profits to date. They offer both free tips, which have achieved a return on investment of 8% to date, and Premium Tips which have averaged a return on investment of 21%. That has been achieved over the course of a large number of bets, with over 400 match tips for the free tips and over 600 for the Premium Tips. 

Their tipster is particularly strong on WTA events, in which his return is an excellent 47% and they enjoy the grand slam events, having achieved a 34% ROI on the French Open and 24% ROI on Wimbledon.  

So all in all Love Winners is well worth checking out for their tennis tips. 

 

 

2. The Goat

This service deserves an award simply for having such an interesting name, but in fact they have established a very strong tipping record in their own right. We thought at first the “Goat” might refer to “greatest of all time” but with a picture of a goat on the homepage we are not so sure. 

However, the important thing is that the tips have been very profitable so far, with a return on investment over 15% and a strike rate of just under 50%. That has contributed to over 80 points profit made to date, which is an impressive haul to have made in tennis. Bets come in a variety of markets including match odds, Asian handicap games and Asian handicap sets and also double and treble bets in addition to singles. 

Whatever the real story behind the name, The Goat is an impressive tennis betting service. 

 

1. Tennis Goldmine

More a complete tennis betting package than just a tipping service, Tennis Goldmine is run by renowned tennis expert Patrick Ross. The main Tennis Goldmine service is a betting system that revolves around laying players that fit certain criteria. It performed very well during our live trial, showing consistent and solid profits. 

Included in the package are also Patrick’s betting tips and Spartan Trading Tips, both of which are profitable in their own right.  The trading tips in particular have grown a starting bank of 100 points into over 1500 points to date, which is a very decent effort. Patrick is renowned for his stats analysis and reading of the game which is reflected in the fact that he has consistently made excellent profits over a number of years and is widely regarded as one of the leaders in his field. 

You can check out Tennis Goldmine here. 

 

 

Conclusion

So there you have it, our Top 5 Tennis Tipsters. Although there aren’t nearly as many tennis tipsters out there as football and horse racing ones, there are still some very good services you can take advantage of.

If there are any others you think should be on this list, please let us know in the comments below. 

Otherwise, good luck with your tennis betting and please remember to always gamble responsibly.

 

 

 

 

 

 

A pack of race horses in action

Top 5 Favourites for the Kempton King George Chase

The King George VI Chase is the second most prestigious chase in England, behind only the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Taking place on Boxing Day since 1947, it consists of the top steeplechase horses and is every race horse owners’ dream to win before the year closes out.

This year’s favourite is currently Might Bite, just as Nicky Henderson’s horse was 12 months ago when it was ridden to victory by Nico de Boinville as the 6/4 favourite.

A disappointing showing as the odds-on favourite at the Betfair Chase last month sees Might Bite’s King George odds back at 7/2 as of today – a price that many punters may feel comfortable backing provided Henderson gets the confidence back in the nine-year-old that the trainer claimed was lacking last month.

Nicky Henderson claimed that the big and stiff fences threw his horse off rhythm at the Betfair Chase as to why it came home in last place.

The winner of that Haydock event was Bristol De Mai. The French horse is currently the third favourite heading into the King George, with a price of 13/2.

Nigel Twiston-Davies’ horse was the same starting price when it won the Betfair Chase. And that result puts the trainer within a shout of winning the £1 million bonus paid out to any horse that wins the Triple Crown – the Betfair Chase, King George VI and the Cheltenham Gold Cup, in the same season.

Many will fancy Native River’s chances also. Colin Tizzard’s horse is currently the 7/1 fourth favourite whilst the trainer himself has had two winners over the past three years here. First was Cue Card, seated by Paddy Brennan in 2015. 12 months later Tizzard enjoyed the same fate when Thistlecrack was ridden home in first place by Tom Scudamore. However, many punters may feel that the surface won’t favour Native River.

2016 winner Thistlecrack currently has a price of 8/1 to win the King George VI Chase for a second time – a feat only accomplished by 14 other horses in an event that dates back to 1937.

Looking to become the first winning female trainer since Henrietta Knight in 2003, Ruth Jefferson is heading to Kempton full of confidence with second favourite Waiting Patiently.

The Irish horse is currently trading at 11/2 having won all six chases in its lifetime. This includes Ascot back in February – the last time that Waiting Patiently raced. That race was won by more than two lengths, ahead of the popular Cue Card.

Owner Jefferson is confident her horse can win the King George, recently telling Racing UK:

“Everything is going according to plan – I couldn’t be happier with him, to be honest.

“He’s absolutely bouncing at the moment, so fingers crossed they get some rain at Kempton and we’ll be there.

“There are still one or two things to do – we haven’t schooled him yet for instance, but hopefully we’ll do that next week or the week after.”

The King George VI Chase is one of the biggest events of the year on the horse racing calendar and you can expect a lot of attention on the event on December 26th as well as many wagers being placed.

 

 

 

 

casino young people

Edge Sorting – How One Player Took Millions Off The Casinos

Phil Ivey, the renowned poker player, was very good at a certain technique, that is until he had to repay the £7.7 million he won playing Punto Banco at Crockfords Club in Mayfair while using it to great effect.

Not that he was accused of dishonesty; it was just that he shifted the odds in his favour contrary to the spirit of the high rolling Punto Banco community. The game is supposed to be 100% pure chance, and according to the judges, Ivey had operated a carefully planned sting.

The technique he applied was “Edge Sorting”; a way of exploiting the minor differences in the backs of playing cards to determine whether they are high or low-value cards.   

You need 20 20 vision

You need keen sight to spot them, but the backs of even the best playing cards have irregularities. These can occur in various ways. Sometimes there is a noticeable difference between the width of the margins around the print on the longer sides of the cards; diamond-patterned backs that cover the entire surface may display slight asymmetries at the edges, for instance, there might be complete diamonds along one edge and partial diamonds along the other.

A Compliant Dealer

Any asymmetry in the pattern that allows the player to differentiate between cards rotated at 180 degrees to each other will do the trick. But spotting the asymmetry is just half the trick; the other and possibly harder part is persuading the dealer to rotate high or low-value cards.

In the Punto Banco session mentioned above, Ivy asked the dealer to rotate all the cards valued 7 to 9, the most valuable cards in Punto Banco. The dealer, apparently naively, obliged. Dealers like to indulge players, especially high rollers; doing so presumably leads to bigger tips.

Then Adjust Your Bets

With the shoe set up to his specification, he was able to identify the rotated cards in the shoe before they were dealt, and adjust his bets accordingly giving himself a significant advantage.

Edge sorting can be used in many different games. Some have reportedly regularly used it to great effect in Three Card Brag and claimed to almost guarantee walking away with a handsome profit on every occasion, before it stopped working. It is easy for casinos to prevent it happening, for instance by combining two decks rotated at 180 degrees to each other in the riffle. It is one of the reasons touching your cards at casino Blackjack is almost a capital offense.  

No Longer Legal in the UK

Following the High Court ruling on Phil Ivey, in the UK calling on the dealer to fix the cards to give the player an advantage is no longer legal. The situation in the US is a little different. Ivey pulled a similar stunt there playing Pai Gow at the Borgata Hotel Casino in Atlantic City and had to repay around $10 million. The courts ruled that Ivy had not cheated nor committed fraud, but the casino was entitled to retain the money.

His technique at Borgata was somewhat different. He took along a guest, Cheng Yin Sun, and insisted on using purple Gemaco Borgata playing cards. Sun had spent many hundreds of hours studying minuscule flaws in that particular brand of cards and so was well placed to help Ivy win a fortune.

Don’t Try This at Home

Can an ordinary player take advantage of the technique? In informal games where players handle and deal the cards edge sorting may be possible, but it’s unlikely to work in a casino. We recommend that you don’t try it, but if you do then don’t get caught – it is illegal in the UK.

Get £88 free to use at the 888 Casino with no deposit (T&Cs apply, 18+, new customers only).

 

 

 

 

virtual football pic

What Is Virtual Football Betting and Should You Play?

Football has now become the biggest sport to wager your money on among all sports online. Betting companies are always looking to come up with new and improved ways to get potential punters involved so have devised a new medium to attract people – that of virtual football betting.

With one of the most significant disadvantages of real football being that you have to wait for the next game and there are not always markets available for people to get involved with, virtual football betting is available pretty much 24/7.

Real football also has the disadvantage that you have to wait a full 90 minutes of play to get the result and move on to the next available opportunity. So if you’re thinking about virtual football and would like to know more then you have come to the right place.

Virtual football matches are quicker than real ones and are electronically generated. They look a lot like a game of FIFA or Pro Evolution Soccer, but the results of the fixtures are calculated by an unbiased computer algorithm. And just like online gambling machines or casino games, you can access the games from the comfort of your own home.

When virtual football first started out the quality was quite poor, but with the advance of technology, graphics and internet speed these issues have been taken care of considerably. With so many online betting services available nowadays all competing in this competitive market, online virtual football has improved immensely. Even the live commentaries feel almost as good as the real thing.

Advantages of Virtual Betting

The advantages to betting on virtual football are that there is always a list of live matches to bet on night and day. Also, these games last a lot less time than real football matches, offering many more games to get involved in.

Another significant advantage to virtual football is that you don’t need a lot of prior knowledge of the teams playing and you don’t need to sift through mountains of statistical data such as the manager’s performance to be able to get started, and it’s much easier to play. You can just simply select your type of bet, place your stake and then you only have to wait a short amount of time to find out the outcome.

Another thing you will notice if you are used to betting on real football matches is that there are a lot fewer types of bets available. This simplifies things and lets you concentrate on just a few markets such as the win markets, correct score, goals margins, double chance markets and Asian handicaps. However, Betfred does offer around 20 different markets for every fixture.

Some Things To Remember

Although betting on virtual football can seem very similar to gambling on the real thing, they are in fact two very different beasts. A real football game has so many variables to factor into your betting decisions such as weather, psychology of the players, fatigue etc. Virtual football is entirely generated using a RNG (random number generator).

Also, the teams have no relevance to real life teams. Sometimes their names can seem very similar to real ones, but due to licensing purposes they cannot use the real names. However they do not have any reference to the actual teams and performance in any way, and all users will see exactly the same result of each game.

Just as with all other forms of betting of course, the bookies have an in-built house edge over punters with virtual betting. So if you bet consistently on virtual football you are likely to lose money long-term, unless you happen to get lucky or have a proven strategy to overcome the bookies’ edge. 

We would have thought it would be more difficult to study form and develop a winning strategy in virtual football compared to the real thing though, given that results are randomly generated. So you are better off sticking to the real thing to be honest.

Conclusion

Hopefully you now have a better idea of how the world of online virtual football betting works and a better understanding of the markets and bookmakers that are available.

You now also see the advantages and disadvantages of virtual betting and can decide if this is something you would like to add to your betting portfolio. 

Essentially virtual football betting is much like casino games and slots – it can be fun to play for small stakes on occasion but ultimately the bookies have an in-built edge that will be almost impossible to overcome long-term, unless you just happen to get very lucky. 

So rather than risking your money on virtual football, why not bet on the real thing alongside a top professional tipster like this one.  

 

 

 

 

congress

Betting on the US Midterms – How Did They Go?

It was a late night last night with the results of the US Midterm Elections going into the wee hours. 

If you stayed up then you will know it was a bit of a rollercoaster ride as things looked bad for the Democrats early on but gradually improved as the night went on. 

I had given my thoughts on the betting for the Midterms last week, so how did my predictions turn out?

Well overall it was a good night, with my main bets on the Democrats to win the House and Republicans to hold the Senate landing comfortably.

Looking back I can still not quite believe the Democrats were 1.6 to win the House, but I guess people were spooked by the Presidential Election in 2016 and didn’t believe the numbers that strongly favoured the Democrats.

It was a shame there weren’t odds being offered on the Republicans increasing their Senate seats as that would have been a good bet to take. 

In terms of the individual races, it was a bit more of a mixed picture. On the plus side, Texas did indeed go to Ted Cruz, but it was fairly close in the end as I expected. Jon Ralston’s early voting numbers in Nevada once again proved spot on so well done to Jon and a nice win landed there. And in Michigan Debbie Stabenow also won comfortably so that one went to plan too.

The main surprise though came in Florida, where Democrats Bill Nelson and Andrew Gillum both lost. The polls had them both in front – Gillum significantly so – so I guess the lesson here is to be very wary of state level polls which are notoriously unreliable. Whilst the national polls were reasonably accurate this time, some of the state-level polls were way off, so going forward I will probably not put much store in them at all. 

Arizona is unlikely to be called for a few days as there are still over a million ballots to be counted but it looks like Republican Martha McSally will win there. 

Overall then a good night but a few lessons to be learned going forward and hopefully next time will get things all right. 

 

 

 

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Betting on the US Midterms – Is Trump In For a Kicking?

30th October 2018

The US Midterm Elections take place on 6th November and there are a variety of betting opportunities available.

Perhaps because there aren’t many events to bet on, elections don’t seem to attract as much money from professionals as sports betting events and can often present some excellent value if you study them closely. 

The Midterms this time are being seen as a referendum on President Donald Trump and there is a chance he could be in for a tough night – perhaps even a real proverbial kicking.

I’ve had quite a lot of success betting on politics over the years so thought I would share my ideas on the upcoming Midterm Elections. 

I’ll take a look at the markets and where I see some of that value this time around.

 

What are the US Midterms?

In the US they have a chance to change government (or at least part of the government) every two years. 

In between Presidential Elections, there are elections for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives (aka “The House”) and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate, plus a slew of governors races and local elections across the country. 

The Midterms have historically been a chance to bring some balance to the partisan make-up of government and the party that holds the Presidency usually does very badly.

Barack Obama suffered crushing losses in both of the Midterm Elections during his Presidency in 2010 and 2014, as did George W Bush in 2006. It has often been the case that the President’s party loses control of the House in the midterms and may well lose seats in the Senate as well. The historical pattern is that governing parties tend to lose 30 House seats on average. 

This year looks set to be no different, with President Trump suffering poor approval ratings in the low-40s and Democrats looking highly motivated.

But how will his unpopularity play out and how are the betting markets estimating the outcome? Let’s take a look at the different races in turn.

 

The House of Representatives

Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to gain a majority in the House. The race for control of the House is a little complicated by the fact that Republican gerrymandering (i.e. the drawing of voting districts that favour them) means the Democrats have to win the popular vote across the country by about five percentage points to reclaim the House.

Leaving aside the question of how this is allowed to happen (most other democracies have independent panels that draw their voting districts), it does create some uncertainty in a race where the Democrats currently hold a commanding average poll lead on the generic ballot of 8.2 points. 

If the polls were off by just over 3 points for example, then Republicans would likely retain control of the House. And of course 3 points is about how far off they were in the last Presidential Election, when most polls gave Hillary Clinton a solid lead. 

Having said all that, I still think the betting markets are currently underestimating Democrats’ chances in the House. On Betfair, the Democrats are around 1.6 at the time of writing, which equates to about a 63% chance of winning the House. You can view the market here.

However, on Fivethirtyeight’s House Forecast (the Classic version, which incorporates not just polls but fundamentals like fundraising, historical trends and other data), they currently give the Democrats an 86% chance of winning. So based on that model, the odds should actually be around 1.16. 

Fivethirtyeight’s House Forecast (Classic Model) on 29th October.

That is a pretty phenomenal difference and if you saw that in a football match or horse race, you probably wouldn’t believe your luck. It would be like Man City being 1.6 at home in the Premier League to beat Cardiff, instead of the 1.16 they should be. 

Now of course people will point out the Fivethirtyeight model got Trump’s chances wrong in 2016 and so it might be off again. 

Their model was the closest to the actual result though out of all the mainstream models, giving Trump a 30% chance of winning, as against some other models which (quite laughably now with hindsight) gave Clinton a 95% chance of winning. And Fivethirtyeight seem to have learned from their mistakes last time and incorporated a lot more data into their model this time around, rather than focusing too much on the polls. 

There are other reasons though why I think their model has things more or less correct this time and that Democrats have a really good chance of winning the House – or certainly better than the betting markets currently give them:

 – Special Elections

These are the elections to fill the empty seat of a politician who dies or retires (we call them by-elections here in the UK). They give a useful guide to how the public mood is shaping up. 

Since the 2016 Election the Democrats have outperformed the partisan lean of districts in Special Elections by an average of 16 points. If that was repeated in the Midterms, needless to say it would deliver them a thumping victory. 

– Fundraising 

The Democrats have outraised the Republicans 2 to 1 in individual contributions. This is pretty much unprecedented and the models have struggled to know how to interpret this data as it’s such a strong trend.

What is important is not so much that the extra money gives one side an advantage – the Republicans will probably more than make up for it in big donations from Super-PACS (bodies that can raise unlimited amounts of money from corporations and billionaires and donate it to a campaign), but what it indicates in terms of the enthusiasm of the public. The fundraising data suggests Democrats are very enthusiastic indeed.

 – Voter Registration

Although typically not a strong predictor of the final results, voter registration is another barometer of enthusiasm. And Democrats have seen a surge in voter registration in a range of states across the country, particularly amongst the young, a key demographic for them (more on that below).

 – Youth Enthusiasm 

The young vote heavily Democrat (nearly two thirds voted for Clinton against just a third for Trump) – the problem is they don’t vote very much. Whilst turnout for those aged over 65 tends to be around 60% in midterm elections, for those aged 18-29 it struggles to get over 25% – and was a paltry 20% in the last Midterms. 

This year could be different however. Polls suggest as many as 40% of young voters may turn out this time, which would presage a “blue wave,” given that 72% of these voters disapprove of Trump.

 – Other Forecasts

It is not just Fivethirtyeight predicting a Democrat takeover of the House. The Cook Political Report predicts the “likeliest outcome is a Democratic gain of between 25 and 35 seats.” Inside Elections concurs that the “Most likely outcome: Democratic gain of 25-35 seats, with larger gains possible,” whilst Sabato’s Crystal Ball states  “the bare minimum for Democratic House gains is in the mid-to-high teens. The needed 23-seat net gain is not that far beyond that and there are many different paths Democrats can take to achieve it.”

So there seems to be solid consensus about the Democrats’ chances from the forecasters.  

House Summary

There are a variety of indicators suggesting the Democrats are strong favourites to retake the House and yet the betting markets don’t seem to take these into account. Unless something dramatic changes between now and the elections, I see 1.6 as excellent value on the Democrats. 

There is uncertainty in terms of youth and minority turnout which could affect the result, but the evidence suggests they will turn out in higher numbers than in recent midterm elections. Even if they don’t, it is almost certain that suburban women will turn out strongly and they favour the Democrats by an estimated 30 points, so they could carry the Democrats over the line in any event. 

 

The Senate

The Senate is a completely different story and looks almost certain to remain Republican. I backed them at 1.61 back in September and their odds have now dropped to just 1.28.

The Fivethirtyeight model gives the Republicans an 82% chance of holding the Senate, which is a little higher than the Betfair odds would suggest.

This may still present value even at 1.28 as the Democrats have an extraordinarily difficult map – or in other words they have 26 seats up for election where as Republicans have just 9 this time round. 

And whilst the Democrats have limited opportunities to pick up seats, a number of their own seats are in red states like North Dakota and Missouri which they may have problems defending.

So the Senate as a whole looks like a very heavy lift for the Dems, but let’s take a look at some of the individual Senate races.

 

Texas

Texas is shaping up to be one of the most exciting races of the election, to most people’s surprise. To be honest this shouldn’t even be close in a deep red state like Texas. But rising Democratic star Beto O’Rourke has surpassed all expectations and run a hugely successful grassroots campaign that has seen him visit all 254 counties in Texas and raise a phenomenal $38m in individual donations.

On the other hand, Republican Ted Cruz is perhaps not the most popular person on the planet.

Even his colleagues in the Republican party have been quoted as saying things like: “If someone shot Ted Cruz on the floor of the Senate, they wouldn’t be convicted,” of calling him “Lyin’ Ted” (that one of course came from Donald Trump who now wants Cruz to win so has taken to calling him “Texas Ted”).  My personal favourite though has to be from former House Speaker John Boehner who described Cruz as “Lucifer in the flesh.” 

Despite Cruz’s unpopularity and O’Rourke’s brave efforts however, polls have shown the Republican  consistently ahead and Fivethirtyeight give him a 78% chance of winning. 

I backed Cruz at 1.5 and he is currently around 1.2, which I think is about right.  However I think this could be one to watch closely in-running. If O’Rourke can run up some big numbers in the urban districts and gets strong youth turnout, it’s not out of the question he could win. 

 

Arizona

Arizona is a race where again there is quite a disparity between the odds and the forecasters’ predictions. Whilst Fivethirtyeight give Democrat Krysten Sinema a 64% chance of winning, Betfair actually have her as the outsider. I have backed her at 2.16 and think this is perhaps the Democrats’ best chance of a Senate pick-up.

 

Florida

The bookies see this as a close race and whilst Florida is virtually always close, the 1.83 about Democrat Bill Nelson looks favourable. He is the incumbent and may get a boost from the Democrat candidate for governor Andrew Gillum, who looks to be well ahead in his race. Nelson is rated as a 72% chance with Fivethirtyeight and with the national environment favouring Democrats by around 8 points, they appear to have a good chance of holding Florida.

 

Michigan

This looks as good as certain for the Democrats, with the Fivethirtyeight forecast giving Democrat incumbent Debbie Stabenow a 97% chance of winning and the polls giving her an average lead of 12 points. Yet Betfair is offering 1.21 on Stabenow, which suggests some uncertainty. I am happy to take those odds all day long.

 

Nevada

Generally you want to ignore early voting (the voting that happens in the two weeks or so before Election Day) and certainly you want to ignore the media narrative around it. One exception to this however is Nevada and the excellent early voting blog from Jon Ralston. He gathers all the data on people who have voted so far in Nevada by party registration and calculates the position of the race. Last time he got it spot on and made me a tidy few quid. I will be watching Jon’s numbers closely again this time. 

 

Governors

Sadly there is poor liquidity on Betfair for the Governors races and the bookies don’t seem to be offering odds at all. 

If liquidity picks up though, I would be happy to take anything above 1.6 about Andrew Gillum in Florida and 1.3 or above on Tom Wolf in Pennsylvania.

 

In-Running Betting Can Present the Best Opportunity

There can be great opportunities to make money in-running on politics these days. In the cases of both Brexit and Trump, the betting markets were very slow to react to the early results coming in. 

In both instances, it was clear from the early results which way the contests were going. In the case of Brexit, the first two results that were declared, from Sunderland and Newcastle, heavily favoured leave. The only way that remain still had a chance was if those results were massive “outliers.” It’s fairly unlikely that the first two results to come in would just happen to be huge outliers though. And the more results that came in, the more certain you could be they were not.

Yet the markets still saw it as roughly 50-50, even when a slew of strong results for leave had come in. Once you have around ten results come in from different parts of the country, the chance they are all big outliers is virtually nil.   

The same thing happened with Trump. Early results from places like Florida and Ohio suggested he was outperforming expectations. Once more results came in from the Midwest, it then became likely he was actually going to win. The results tend to be strongly correlated in Presidential elections and it was highly unlikely Trump was going to win Ohio by 8 points as he did but then lose other rust belt states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Yet the betting markets still saw the race as close even after all these results were going one way. They may have been spooked by an early exit poll that showed a big win for Clinton, but exit polls aren’t always accurate so I don’t put too much store in them. What matters are results and you can always learn more from the early results than the polls. 

So this time I will be watching the early results closely and be getting ready to take advantage. House races don’t tend to correlate as closely as Presidential ones so you need to be careful, but I will be comparing the early results with Fivethirtyeight’s forecasts to judge how things are going. If I see one party outperforming the forecasts significantly then I will look to act.

 

The Outliers

Conventional wisdom has it that the average of polls give the most likely prediction of an Election outcome, but recent history has suggested that outlier polls can actually prove more accurate. 

These are the polls that seem outlandish and way out of whack with the others, like Trump winning, or Corbyn gaining seats in the 2017 UK Election for example. 

This time there are some big outliers on each side – some with Democrats with a whopping 17 point lead and others seeing it as an even race. 

So it could be a worth a small investment on these outliers, although at the moment seat spreads don’t appear to be available unfortunately. If they do become available I will update this post.

 

 

Conclusion

The current House odds on the Democrats look generous to me so unless something drastic changes between now and Election Day I would see 1.6 as good odds. In the Senate Republicans are favoured, but the odds aren’t as generous at 1.28 currently.

Whilst there are some good odds on individual races at the moment, I am most looking forward to the in-running opportunity as the markets are often very slow to react to results coming in. 

I am also paying close attention to Jon Ralston’s early voting blog on Nevada. 

So there are my thoughts – we will see how close I am on November 7th – or if I am way off!

If you are going to have a punt on the Midterms, please gamble responsibly and only risk money you can afford to lose.