Djokovic vs Alcaraz Prediction

The tennis world is eagerly anticipating the showdown between Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz in the 2024 Wimbledon final, a repeat of last year’s final between two of the sport’s greats.

This matchup promises to be a clash of styles, generations, and sheer talent.

As we delve into this prediction, we’ll consider:

• Current form
• Head-to-head records
• Odds in previous matches
• Playing styles
• Key factors to look out for

So let’s dive in and see who is favoured to win this epic match-up! 

Current Form and Season Performance

Let’s take a look at both players’ form so far this season to see how they have been playing and their prospects for getting the better of their opponent based on their season performance to date.

 

Novak Djokovic

• Tournament Wins: Nil
• Best Performances: Semi-finals – Australian Open, Monte-Carlo Masters; Quarter-finals – Roland Garros

The Serbian maestro has had a tough season so far, failing to register a tournament win to date in 2024.

He was well beaten by Jannik Sinner in the semi-final at the Australian Open and since then Djokovic’s season has been blighted by poor form and injury, having to pull out of the French Open at the quarter-final stage with a knee problem.

It was subsequently revealed that Djokovic needed surgery on that knee, which at first looked like it would prevent him from competing at Wimbledon at all. 

Whilst age may finally be catching up with the Serbian superstar, he bounced back very quickly following surgery, to the surprise of many. 

He was not even sure if he would be able to compete at Wimbledon, but having decided just before the event started he would indeed play, Djokovic has been in impressive form throughout the tournament, dropping just two sets on his way to the final. 

The 37-year old has undoubtedly been helped by getting a bye through the quarter-final, as his opponent Alex De Minaur had to pull out through injury. 

That leaves the Serb fresher than he would have been had he undergone a potentially tough quarter-final and with a straight-sets win in his semi-final, Djokovic should be ready to go for the final. 

He stands alone in the men’s game with 24 grand slams, but would like nothing more than to add a 25th, which would be his eighth Wimbledon title and take him level with Roger Federer.

Whilst the crowd has not been on his side during the tournament and is unlikely to be for the final either against the popular Alcaraz, the Serb is likely to try and feed off any negative energy and use it to fuel him instead.

Certainly this has been his worst season for many years and coming into Wimbledon few gave him a chance, but Djokovic’s form during the event has undoubtedly been good enough to win it.

The only question mark would be that he is yet face a true test in the tournament, but the Serb is easily capable of stepping his game up another gear when faced with top class opposition. 

 

Carlos Alcaraz

• Tournament Wins: 2
• Best Performances: Winner – Indian Wells, Roland Garros. Semi-final: Buenos Aires. Quarter-finals: Australian Open, Madrid Masters

The young Spaniard has had a strong season in 2024, winning his third grand slam title at the French Open in June as well as a second title at Indian Wells in March.

Outside of those wins it has been somewhat of an up and down season for Alcaraz however, with his best performances outside of those two wins being one semi-final and two quarter final appearances.

He has lost to lesser opponents at Queens (2nd round), Rio (1st round) and has not quite maintained the consistency he would be hoping for at this level. 

So he has shown vulnerability and there is a window for Djokovic to exploit if the Spaniard is not quite on his game. 

However, Alcaraz has been on blistering form during much of Wimbledon and has looked unplayable at times. 

The title defence rolls on 💪

Carlos Alcaraz defeats Daniil Medvedev 6-7(1), 6-3, 6-4, 6-4#Wimbledon pic.twitter.com/gPS9G6sDaa

— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) July 12, 2024

The Spaniard has had a tougher route to the final than Djokovic, having to defeat the likes of Tiafoe, Paul and Medvedev to reach this stage.

Having been more thoroughly tested than his opponent during Wimbledon should stand him in good stead for the final.  

On his form both this year and through the tournament, Alacaraz would have to be rated as favourite.

 

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between Djokovic and Alcaraz is as follows:

Tournament	Surface	Winning Player	Losing Player	Score
ATP Finals – 18.11.23	Hard	Djokovic	Alcaraz	6-3, 6-2
Cincinnati – 20.08.23	Hard	Djokovic	Alcaraz	5-7, 7-6, 7-6
Wimbledon – 16.07.23	Grass	Alcaraz	Djokovic	1-6, 7-6, 6-1, 3-6, 6-4
French Open – 09.06.23	Clay	Djokovic	Alcaraz	6-3, 5-7, 6-1, 6-1
Madrid Open – 07.05.22	Clay	Alcaraz	Djokovic	6-7, 7-5, 7-6

Djokovic narrowly leads the head-to-head 3-2, winning their two hard court encounters to date.

The head-to-head record between Djokovic and Alcaraz is still in its infancy however, reflecting Alcaraz’s young age.

The most famous of their clashes so far is undoubtedly the extraordinary five-set classic at last year’s Wimbledon, which Alcaraz won in thrilling fashion.  

Ice cold 🥶#Wimbledon | @carlosalcaraz https://t.co/phUqfkLpYo pic.twitter.com/ghokhX2h27

— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) July 24, 2023

Their encounters so far have provided a glimpse into how this rivalry might evolve.

Djokovic’s experience and tactical nous have given him the edge, but Alcaraz’s fearlessness and rapid improvement suggest that every match between these two will be fiercely contested and ultimately it may be the Spaniard who gains the upper hand as the Serb’s skills wane with age.

Only one of their matches so far has been won in straight sets, confirming how closely matched they have been.

 

Odds in Previous Encounters

Djokovic has been the favourite for all of their previous encounters, with odds for their matches having been as follows:

Tournament	Djokovic Odds	Alcaraz Odds
ATP Finals	1.67	2.30
Cincinnati	1.63	2.37
Wimbledon	1.55	2.70
French Open	1.52	2.75
Madrid Open	1.8	2.20

For the first time however, Alcaraz starts as favourite in a matchup against Djokovic, as he starts at odds of 1.67 for the final whilst Djokovic is rated as a 2.38 chance.

 

Playing Styles and Strategies

Djokovic: Renowned for his incredible defensive skills and ability to turn defense into offense, Djokovic’s game is built around consistency, precision, and an almost impenetrable baseline game.

His return of serve is arguably the best in the history of the sport, allowing him to neutralize opponents’ biggest weapons.

Djokovic’s tactical intelligence enables him to adapt his game to exploit his opponent’s weaknesses, making him a nightmare to play against.

Alcaraz: In contrast, Alcaraz’s style is more aggressive and flamboyant.

His game is characterized by powerful groundstrokes, explosive movement, and a fearless approach to taking on his opponents. Alcaraz is not afraid to go for big shots, aiming to dictate play and finish points quickly.

His forehand, in particular, is a devastating weapon that can change the course of a match in an instant. Alcaraz also possesses a strong net game, often using drop shots and volleys to keep opponents guessing.

It is this clash of styles that has made contests between these two so fascinating. Neither player has been able to achieve dominance over the other so far, suggesting their contrasting styles are a good match for each other. 

 

Key Factors and Intangibles

Experience vs. Youth: Djokovic’s wealth of experience in high-stakes matches is unmatched.

He has been in virtually every possible scenario on a tennis court and knows how to handle pressure.

Alcaraz, while less experienced, brings the exuberance of youth and a fearlessness that can be dangerous for even the most seasoned opponents.

The outcome may hinge on whether Djokovic’s experience can outlast Alcaraz’s youthful aggression.

Physical and Mental Fortitude: Both players are known for their physical fitness and mental toughness.

Djokovic’s ability to grind out long matches and his unparalleled resilience are well-documented.

Alcaraz, despite his youth, has shown remarkable stamina and a never-say-die attitude. This aspect of the match could be pivotal, especially if it goes the distance.

Surface and Conditions: The playing surface and conditions can also play a crucial role.

Djokovic is highly adaptable, excelling on all surfaces, though he has a slight preference for hard courts.

Alcaraz, hailing from Spain, has grown up on clay but has shown proficiency on other surfaces as well.

Having won Wimbledon last year as well as Queens’ and now reaching another Wimbledon final, there is no doubt Alcaraz is well adapted to grass.

Equally, Djokovic obviously has an incredible record at Wimbledon with seven titles, so both are clearly very happy on the grass of centre court and we do not see any real advantage to either player in terms of the surface.

 

Prediction

Predicting the outcome of a Djokovic vs. Alcaraz match is no easy task given their contrasting styles and the variables at play.

However, looking at their form this year we can clearly see that Alcaraz has the upper hand in this department. He has notched two big tournament wins and reached the semi-finals of another event. 

Djokovic’s year by contrast has been blighted by injury and a loss of form. 

The head-to-head record stands narrowly in Djokovic’s favour, at 3-2, but most of those matches were played when Djokovic was the dominant player in men’s tennis.

That is not the case now however with Alcaraz on the rise as the Serb has struggled of late. 

Only one of their matches has been won in straight sets so we can expect a close matchup again. 

Based on his form this year and through the tournament we would rate Alcaraz as a slight favourite, but the final could easily go either way. 

Taking all this into account, we see a repeat of last year’s final:

Our prediction is for an Alcaraz win, in five sets. 

You can get odds of 5.75 for Alcaraz to win in five sets with boomaker 10Bet. 

 

 

Final Thoughts

While Alcaraz’s form make him the favourite, Djokovic’s rapid improvement over the last two weeks ensures that he is a real threat.

This match is likely to be a thrilling contest of skill, strategy, and willpower.

Tennis fans should prepare for a potential classic, as the old guard faces the new wave in what promises to be an unforgettable encounter.

In conclusion, on form this year we have to favour Alcaraz, but it is likely to be a very close encounter and could go either way. 

Whatever the result, the tennis world is set for a spectacle that highlights the sport’s enduring appeal and the exciting future that players like Alcaraz represent.