What Percentage of Third Favourites Win Horse Races?

While most punters focus on backing favourites or hunting for longshots, third favourites represent an interesting middle ground in horse racing betting.

These horses win a surprisingly consistent percentage of races across different conditions and race types, making them a fascinating subject for anyone serious about horse racing betting strategy.

Understanding what percentage of third favourites win horse races is crucial for developing profitable betting approaches.

The data reveals patterns that can help both casual punters and professional backers make more informed decisions about where to place their money in competitive races.

Third Favourite Win Rate Statistics

Third favourites win approximately 12-15% of horse races across UK racing, based on a comprehensive analysis of thousands of races from 2002-2021.

This percentage represents a significant slice of the winning pie, though it sits well behind the performance of market leaders.

The stats reveal a clear hierarchy in favourite performance. Favourites win around 33% of races, establishing their dominance in the market, while second favourites secure victory in approximately 20% of races.

Third favourites, with their 13% win rate in most studies, still represent a meaningful portion of race winners.

When combined, the top three market choices win about 65-70% of all races.

This statistic demonstrates the market’s general efficiency while highlighting that roughly one-third of races are won by horses priced at bigger odds.

For punters, this means third favourites offer a middle ground between the reliability of top choices and the value potential of longer-priced runners.

Recent study data shows consistency across different time periods, suggesting these percentages represent stable market dynamics rather than temporary trends.

The long run statistics prove that third favourites maintain their position in the hierarchy regardless of changing conditions in the sport.

Comparing Market Positions Performance

The financial performance of different market positions reveals interesting patterns for money management in horse racing betting.

Favourites win 30-35% of races with an average ROI of 93%, meaning punters lose around 7% of their money when backing favourites consistently.

Second favourites win 20% of races with an average ROI of approximately 88%, representing a bit lower return but still maintaining reasonable value in the market.

Third favourites win 13% of races with an average ROI of approximately 85%, showing that as we move down the favourite hierarchy, both win rates and returns decline.

Fourth favourites and below win progressively fewer races with declining ROI percentages.

This pattern demonstrates the favourite-longshot bias, with outsiders often representing very poor value overall. Some studies suggest a -40% ROI for longshots priced over 50/1 for example. 

The point to note is that whilst third favourites generally represent worse value than first or second favourites, there can still be instances where they can be a good bet – more on that below. 

Factors Affecting Third Favourite Success Rates

Several key factors significantly impact how often third favourites win races, with field size being perhaps the most crucial variable.

Smaller fields increase win percentages for third favourites, as fewer horses mean each runner has a statistically higher chance of victory.

In races with 8-10 runners, third favourites might win around 16-18% of the time, while in larger fields of 20+ runners, this figure drops to 10-12%.

Race type influences success rates dramatically, with handicap races offering better opportunities for third favourites compared to conditions races.

The leveling effect of handicap weights means horses are theoretically more evenly matched, creating scenarios where the third choice in the betting has a genuine chance against higher-rated competitors.

Track conditions and surface type affect third favourite performance differently than favourites.

While market leaders often have proven form across various conditions, third favourites may be more susceptible to ground changes or specific track characteristics.

This creates both opportunities and risks for punters willing to analyse these factors.

Competitive races with closely matched odds often favour third favourites over scenarios with runaway market leaders.

When the favorite is odds-on and significantly shorter than the rest of the field, third favourites tend to underperform their normal statistics.

Conversely, when the top three in the market are closely priced, third favourites often exceed their average win rate.

Race Type Performance Breakdown

Handicap races provide the best environment for third favourites, with win rates of 15-17% due to leveling weight allocations.

The handicapping system aims to give all runners an equal chance, which naturally benefits horses that might be underestimated by the market. These races represent prime opportunities for punters seeking value in third favourites.

Non-handicap races see third favourites win 10-12% of races, as class differences are more pronounced without weight adjustments.

Group races and conditions events often feature horses of varying abilities, where the market leaders have established superiority that’s harder for third favourites to overcome.

Maiden races present unique scenarios where third favourites win 11-13% due to the unpredictability of inexperienced runners.

Without previous form to guide the market, third favourites in maidens can represent excellent value, particularly when they have strong breeding or have shown promise in trials.

Group races show the lowest third favourite success rates at 8-10%, as quality gaps between horses are wider in these prestigious events.

The cream of the horse racing world competes in Group races, where market hierarchies more accurately reflect ability differences.

Third Favourites at Major Race Meetings

The Cheltenham Festival provides fascinating insights into third favourite performance at the highest level.

Over the four-day meeting, third favourites win approximately 11% of races, slightly below the overall average due to the exceptional quality and competitive nature of Festival racing.

The unique demands of Cheltenham’s challenging course can favor horses with specific attributes that the market might not fully appreciate.

Royal Ascot third favourites achieve a 9% win rate due to the high-quality competitive fields that characterize this prestigious meeting.

The royal meeting attracts the best horses from around the world, creating scenarios where even third favourites must be exceptional to compete successfully.

However, this also means that when third favourites do win at Royal Ascot, they often provide substantial value for backers.

The Grand National meeting shows third favourites winning 14% across all races during the three-day festival.

The mix of handicaps and conditions races at Aintree creates varied opportunities, with some races favoring third favourites more than others.

The famous Grand National itself, with its unique demands, can sometimes see third favourites outperform expectations.

York’s Ebor meeting demonstrates third favourites winning 12% of races during the four-day event.

The mix of Group races and competitive handicaps at York creates an interesting dynamic where third favourites can find success in the right circumstances, particularly in the larger field handicaps that feature prominently during the meeting.

Course-Specific Third Favourite Performance

Smaller courses like Cartmel and Hexham show higher third favourite win rates at 16-18%, reflecting both the unique characteristics of these tracks and the different caliber of horses that typically compete there.

These venues often feature smaller fields and more unpredictable racing, creating opportunities for third favourites to outperform their odds.

Major courses like Ascot and Newmarket show lower rates at 10-12% due to field quality and the fact that these prestigious venues attract the best horses and most competitive races.

The higher standard of competition means market hierarchies are more likely to hold true, reducing opportunities for third favourites.

All-weather tracks generally favor third favourites with 14-16% win rates, possibly due to the consistent surface conditions that reduce some of the variables that can affect horse performance.

The standardised conditions at these tracks might allow for more accurate assessment of relative abilities, benefiting horses that are genuinely competitive but underestimated by the market.

Jump racing courses show slightly higher third favourite success than flat racing venues, reflecting the additional variables that National Hunt racing introduces.

Factors like jumping ability, stamina, and course-specific skills can elevate horses that might not be the obvious choices on paper, creating opportunities for third favourites to succeed.

Betting Strategies for Third Favourites

Each-way betting on third favourites often provides better value than win-only bets, particularly in races with 16 or more runners where each-way terms typically offer 1/4 odds for four places.

This strategy allows punters to profit even when third favourites finish second or third, which happens frequently enough to make this approach worthwhile.

Targeting competitive handicaps where the top three in betting are closely priced represents one of the most profitable approaches to third favourite betting.

When there’s little to choose between the market leaders, third favourites can represent reasonable value in the race, if the conditions are suitable for them or there are major question marks against their rivals, for example. 

Avoid backing third favourites in non-competitive races with short-priced favorites. When the market has identified a standout performer, third favourites typically struggle to bridge the class gap, making them poor betting propositions despite potentially attractive odds.

Look for third favourites priced between 4/1 and 8/1 for optimal value opportunities – this is often seen as a sweet spot for finding value by professional punters like Andy Holding.

When to Back Third Favourites

As mentioned, races where the favorite and second favourite have question marks or recent poor form create excellent opportunities for third favourites.

When market leaders have obvious vulnerabilities, punters who’ve done their homework can identify third favourites that offer genuine value and realistic winning chances.

Competitive maidens where several horses have similar chances based on breeding present another profitable scenario.

The lack of form makes it difficult for the market to accurately price runners, often creating situations where third favourites are undervalued relative to their actual chances.

Jump races where the third favourite has proven course and distance form can also provide value opportunities.

National Hunt racing places additional demands on horses, and those with demonstrated ability under specific conditions are often underestimated when returning to favorable venues.

Third Favourite Laying Opportunities

Third favourites can be profitable laying bets when overpriced in weak fields, particularly in races where the quality of opposition suggests the market leaders should dominate.

Experienced punters use betting exchanges to lay third favourites that appear too short given the competitive context of the race.

Target third favourites shorter than 5/1 in non-competitive races for laying opportunities. When races lack depth and the top two choices clearly outclass the field, third favourites often trade at prices that don’t reflect their realistic chances of victory.

These scenarios present opportunities for profitable laying strategies.

Avoid laying third favourites in ultra-competitive handicaps where anything can win. In genuinely open races, the small margins between horses mean that almost any runner could succeed, making laying strategies risky and potentially unprofitable in the long run.

Use betting exchange markets to lay overpriced third favourites for consistent profits, but always maintain strict discipline regarding stake sizes and race selection.

Successful laying requires careful analysis and the patience to wait for optimal opportunities rather than forcing bets in unsuitable races.

Key Takeaways for Third Favourite Betting

Third favourites win 12-15% of races, making them less reliable than the top two market choices but still significant enough to warrant serious consideration in betting strategies.

This strike rate represents a substantial portion of race winners and offers opportunities for punters who understand when and how to back them effectively.

Each-way betting often provides better returns than win-only bets on third favourites, particularly in larger fields where place terms are generous.

The frequency with which third favourites finish in the places makes this strategy particularly appealing for punters seeking consistent returns rather than occasional big wins.

Handicap races and smaller courses offer the best opportunities for third favourite success, creating scenarios where careful race analysis can identify genuine value.

The combination of leveling weights and less competitive environments means third favourites can outperform their odds more frequently in these contexts.

Selective betting based on race type and field composition improves long-term profitability significantly more than blindly backing all third favourites.

Success requires understanding the nuances of different racing scenarios and identifying when third favourites genuinely represent value rather than simply offering attractive odds.

The world of horse racing continues to evolve, but the fundamental patterns in third favourite performance remain remarkably consistent.

Punters who master the art of identifying when third favourites offer genuine value will find themselves well-positioned to beat the bookmakers in the long run.

Understanding what percentage of third favourites win horse races is just the beginning.

The real skill lies in identifying which third favourites offer the best opportunities and in which circumstances they’re most likely to deliver profitable returns for patient and disciplined bettors.