What is CLV in Betting and Why Does it Matter?

If you’ve spent any time in the world of sports betting, you’ve probably heard the term “CLV” or Closing Line Value.

It might sound like technical jargon, but understanding it could be the key to unlocking your long-term betting success.

In this article, we’ll break down what CLV is, why it’s important, and how it can be used to evaluate tipster performance.

Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just getting started, understanding CLV will help you make smarter bets.

 

What is CLV (Closing Line Value)?

CLV, or Closing Line Value, refers to the difference between the odds at which you place a bet and the closing odds of that same bet right before the event starts.

In simpler terms, it’s a way to measure whether you got good value for your bet compared to what the odds settled at just before the event began.

Here’s how it works:

• The closing line is the final set of odds offered by the bookmaker (or exchange) before the event begins. It’s widely considered to be the most accurate reflection of an event’s true probabilities because it factors in all available information up until the moment the game starts.
• The value in CLV comes from comparing the odds you placed your bet at versus the final closing odds. If you placed a bet at better odds than the closing line, you achieved positive CLV, meaning you’ve potentially found value in the market. Conversely, if the closing odds are better than the odds you got, you’ve achieved negative CLV.

 

Why is CLV Important?

CLV is an important concept for both casual and serious bettors because it helps you measure one of the most fundamental aspects of betting success: whether you’re consistently getting good value for your bets.

It is increasingly used – in conjunction with other metrics – in measuring betting performance. 

Here are a few reasons why CLV matters: 

1. It’s an Indicator of Sharp Betting

When you consistently beat the closing line and secure better odds than the closing odds, it indicates that you’re making informed and timely decisions.

Since the closing line is widely considered to be the most efficient, beating it means you’ve identified value before the market corrected itself. In essence, you’re one step ahead of the bookmaker.

2. Long-term Profitability

Sports betting is not just about short-term wins or losses. Even the best bettors experience losing streaks.

However, over time, consistently achieving positive CLV is a good indicator that you’re making profitable bets.

If you’re getting better odds than the closing line more often than not, you’re more likely to make a profit in the long run.

3. An Early Warning System

Achieving negative CLV can serve as an early warning sign.

If you’re consistently placing bets that close at worse odds than what you initially bet, it may indicate that you’re either misreading the market or placing your bets too early or too late.

By tracking your CLV, you can adjust your betting strategy accordingly and improve your results over time.

 

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How is CLV Calculated?

Calculating CLV is straightforward. Let’s break it down with an example:

• Suppose you bet on an NFL game, backing the Dallas Cowboys at odds of 2.00 (+100).
• By the time the game starts, the odds on the Dallas Cowboys have dropped to 1.80 (-125).

In this case, you’ve achieved positive CLV because you placed your bet at odds of 2.00, which is better than the final closing odds of 1.80.

Essentially, the market has moved in your favor, indicating that you likely got good value for your bet.

To calculate CLV in percentage terms, you can use this formula:

• CLV = (Closing Odds / Initial Odds) – 1 

So, in the above example, the CLV would be:

• CLV = (1.80 / 2.00) – 1 = -0.10 or -10% 

This result indicates that your bet was placed at a 10% better value than the closing odds.

A negative CLV would imply the opposite — that you got a worse deal.

 

Real-Life Example of CLV in Action

Imagine you’re betting on an NBA game between the Lakers and the Clippers. Early in the week, you notice that the Lakers are priced at 1.90 (-110).

Based on your research, you believe this is a good price, so you place your bet.

As the week progresses, news breaks that a key player on the Clippers is injured, and the odds on the Lakers shorten to 1.70 (-143).

If you bet at 1.90 and the odds close at 1.70, you’ve achieved positive CLV.

You spotted the value early, and the market corrected as more information became available.

Even if the Lakers end up losing the game, over time, consistently making bets with positive CLV like this will give you an edge.

 

The Value of CLV in Measuring Tipster Performance

For bettors who follow tipsters (experts who provide betting advice), CLV is a helpful tool to measure the performance of these tipsters beyond simple wins and losses.

In general terms, CLV provides a way to evaluate whether they’re consistently spotting value, regardless of short-term outcomes.

A tipster who regularly beats the closing line is likely to be more accurate in the long run, even if they have a few losing bets in the short term.

Tipsters may go through hot or cold streaks, but just because they’re winning or losing in the short term doesn’t mean they’re giving good advice.

Betting is a game of probabilities, and even well-placed bets sometimes lose due to random outcomes.

By focusing on CLV, you’re able to assess a tipster’s ability to identify value, not just whether their individual bets won or lost. 

However, CLV should not be viewed as the ultimate arbiter of a tipster’s performance. 

Over the years we have seen many tipsters still produce a good profit, without necessarily beating the CLV by very much. 

Some may even slightly under-perform the CLV but still make a profit.

Others actually tip at CLV – those for example who advise bets at Betfair SP (BSP). So they are unable to either over- or under-perform at CLV.

And the flip-side is there are tipsters who achieve a positive CLV but don’t make a profit. 

So there is a lot of nuance as to exactly how tipsters go about finding value, when they tip and into what market, which means it’s not as straightforward as correlating CLV directly with profit/loss.

Here are a few examples of where CLV isn’t always a straightforward guide to performance:

• Some tipsters tip very early into illiquid markets, knowing that even a small amount of money can move prices. This can create the illusion of CLV when really it is neither genuine value nor realistic for their followers to achieve such prices (and therefore achieve such CLV).
• Some tipsters tip late into markets (or even at starting price) on the basis of late information or market trends. Their goal may not be to beat the closing line, but that doesn’t mean they can’t still find value on the specific markets they are targeting. 
• Some tipsters specifically focus on horses who they deem likely to drift (or are already drifting) as they see value in such picks. Indeed, a study by Betfair of 65,000 horses showed that backing the steamers (those reducing in price by more than 5%) resulted in a loss of almost £3,500 whilst backing those that drifted (increased in price by 5% or more) produced a profit of £2,310. So in some cases it could actually be a good idea to go against CLV. 

Overall then CLV is a useful guide as to whether a tipster is ahead of the market in spotting value and in general a positive CLV is usually a sign of a good tipster, but there is no hard and fast rule on this.

There are plenty of exceptions and it’s important to understand the context in which a tipster is aiming to generate value.

Ultimately it’s a good idea to use CLV in combination with other metrics such as P/L, ROI, strike rate etc in judging tipster performance.  

 

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How to Improve Your CLV

Improving your CLV takes a combination of research, timing, and patience. Here are a few strategies to help you consistently beat the closing line:

1. Bet Early

Markets tend to move as more information becomes available, such as injury news or weather conditions. Betting early can help you capitalize on odds before the market adjusts.

2. Shop for Odds

Not all bookmakers offer the same odds, so shopping around for the best price is essential. Use odds comparison tools to ensure you’re getting the best available odds.

3. Stay Informed

Following injury reports, team news, and even public betting trends can give you an edge. The more information you have, the better your chances of identifying value before the odds shift.

 

Conclusion: CLV as a Key to Betting Success

In summary, Closing Line Value (CLV) is a valuable metric for sports bettors, providing a clear and quantifiable way to measure the value of your bets.

While short-term wins and losses are inevitable, consistently achieving positive CLV is a useful indicator that you’re on the right path to long-term success.

For those following tipsters, tracking CLV offers an effective way to differentiate between genuinely sharp tipsters and those riding a lucky streak, although it should not be seen as a conclusive factor on which to judge a tipster.

There are tipsters who have a positive CLV but still don’t make a profit and vice-versa. Other tipsters tip at CLV so there is no positive or negative CLV in such cases.

There is a great deal of variation and nuance in how bettors go about making profit which may affect whether they achieve CLV – or are even aiming to. 

Ultimately CLV can provide a useful guide as to whether a tipster can spot value in the markets and in most cases a positive CLV should be seen as a good sign for a tipster, if they can maintain it over the long run. It should not be seen as the be-all and end-all in betting though.

Like many other metrics, it is important to view it in context and in combination with other metrics in judging a tipster’s performance.