How to Verify Sports Tipster Claims & Avoid the Scam Tipsters

The sports betting industry has been flooded with tipsters in recent years, many promising big returns and consistent winners.

But how do you prove a tipster’s claims and follow a genuine expert rather than a scam tipster?

These days a data driven approach is the best way to separate the wheat from the chaff.

This guide will show you how to verify a tipster’s performance, understand the metrics and not get caught out by unrealistic claims.

Why Verifying Sports Tipsters Matters

With so many sports tipster services out there it’s easy to get swamped by flashy websites, testimonials and high win rates. But without verification these claims can be misleading.

Verifying tipster claims is important for transparency in the betting industry and to make sure you invest your bankroll wisely.

Tipster transparency and tipster credibility are key to making smart betting decisions.

What to Look For When Verifying a Tipster

When verifying a tipster’s performance there are several key metrics to look at.

The most common are profit/loss (P/L), win rate, return on investment (ROI), closing line value (CLV) and bank growth (also known as return on capital).

Understanding these metrics will help you see through the hype and focus on long term profits.

1. Historical Betting Data Showing Profit and Loss

Any genuine tipster should have a transparent record so you can review their historical bets.

Tipster record keeping best practice is to document every bet, including the odds, stake and result, showing their total profit and loss (P/L) for the whole period they have been tipping.

The P/L figures are normally shown in point or unit terms. 

For example a tipster might have made 250 points profit in total since they started tipping. 

That would mean if you had staked £10 per point on each of their tips, you would have made £2,500 profit in total. 

All tipsters should have a fully-documented track record (usually in the form of a spreadsheet or similar such results sheet) showing their results.

Lack of transparency in a tipster’s betting history is a big red flag.

2. Tipster Win Rate

A tipster’s win rate (also known as strike rate) is an important metric but you need to interpret it correctly.

Sports prediction accuracy varies widely across sports and on the basis of whether the tipster targets long-shots or favourites. 

In sports like football and tennis for example, win rates tend to be much higher than in sports like horse racing and golf. 

That’s because tipsters in football and tennis tend to back at shorter odds.

That could be for example backing a team or player to win an individual match, which are often priced at odds-on (under 2.0 in decimal odds) or at single figure odds. 

Tipsters in horse racing and golf, on the other hand, often tip at much higher odds.

A horse racing tipster tipping horses to win races at average odds of 20/1, or a golf tipster tipping players to win tournaments at average odds of 50/1, are naturally going to have lower win rates than a football tipster tipping teams to win matches at average odds of 2.0. 

So the win rate needs to be taken in context of the sport being tipped in and the average odds of the selections.  

A high win rate is impressive but doesn’t guarantee profitability without considering other factors such as ROI.

It is also important to look for consistency in the win rate over a large sample size.

3. ROI in Sports Betting

Return on investment (ROI) is a key figure that shows how much profit a tipster is making relative to the stakes. 

For example if a tipster returns $20 profit for every $100 staked, their ROI would be 20%.

A tipster may boast about their win rate but without a healthy ROI the tips may not translate into real profits.

At the same time, a very high ROI is often a red flag in sports betting.

A tipster can have a high ROI over a short period of a few months perhaps. 

If their long-term results, covering hundreds of bets and over a period of two years or more shows an ROI that seems too good to be true however, then it is right to be cautious. 

What is too high though in ROI terms? 

Well again it varies by sport and should be seen in context of the win rate. 

In sports like golf and horse racing, where the win rate tends to be lower (often around the 10-20% mark) top tipsters can achieve ROIs of 20%, or even 30% over the long run. 

Much above 40% ROI though and you would have to start questioning the veracity of the tipster’s results. 

Tipsters with higher win rates normally have much lower ROIs.

So a tennis or football tipster with a 50% win rate might only have an ROI of 5-10%. 

If they have a high win rate of over 50% and are claiming an ROI of over 20% or 30%, it should raise red flags. 

Those sort of metrics can be achieved over short periods – 6 months to a year perhaps – but are extremely difficult to maintain over longer time periods. 

The reason is that at short odds there is much less likely to be a significant margin in the bets. 

A horse racing tipster might be able to find a horse that is priced at 28/1 when it should be 20/1 for example.

That would represent a significant edge for the horse racing tipster over the bookies.

But a football tipster tipping at low odds would do very well to find even a few ticks of value – say a team that is priced at 2.2 when they should be 2.04. 

That lower margin translates into a lower ROI in the long run. 

The ROI/win rate metrics by sport then tend to be approximately:  

Sport	Typical Win Rates	Top Tipsters’ long-term ROI	Cautionary ROI threshold
Golf & Horse Racing	10-20%	20-30%	+40%
Football & Tennis	50% or higher	5-10%	+30%

So in summary the win rate and the ROI should line up. The higher the win rate, generally the lower the ROI.

Any tipster claiming very high figures for both should be treated with caution. 

4. Closing Line Value

CLV, or Closing Line Value, refers to the difference between the odds at which a tipster tips a selection and the closing odds of that same bet right before an event starts.

So for example if a tipster tips a golfer at 20/1 and their closing odds just before the event starts is 16/1, they have achieved closing line value. 

As we have discussed here, whilst closing line value can be a useful metric in determining whether a tipster is finding value, it is not infallible. 

It can be misleading – for example a tipster might tip in early, illiquid markets. Or a very popular tipster might always see their tips backed heavily, causing them to achieve closing line value regardless of whether they have found value as such. 

Or other tipsters may be tipping at the closing line (Betfair SP) anyway, or be focusing on selections that tend to drift in the market, so are not trying to achieve CLV.

The key thing is to see CLV in context and whether the tipster is a) trying to achieve closing line value and b) it is genuine CLV.

5. Bank Growth (Return on Capital)

Bank growth – also known as “return on capital” – is the extent to which the amount of money you start with (your “betting bank”) grows over a given amount of time.

So for example if you started with a betting bank of $1,000 and after one year it had grown to $1,500, you would have achieved bank growth of 50%.

It is one of the most useful metrics in comparing tipsters because it gives you a clear bottom line about how much money you would have made (or lost) from following a tipster. 

Some tipsters have wildly different win rates, ROIs etc, but what matters in the end is how much they have grown your starting capital. 

A tipster could have a great ROI for example, but only bets once per week making it hard to grow your betting bank. 

Another might have a high win rate, but the ROI is so low you are not actually making much money.

So pay close attention to the bank growth – if it is given by the tipster. Not all tipsters include it in their results but we always include it as a key metric in our reviews.

It can be worked out quite simply by looking at the recommended betting bank for the tipster and then how much that bank has grown or fallen over a period. 

For example if a tipster recommends a 100 point betting bank and they make 50 points profit in a year, they have achieved 50% bank growth. 

 

Sample Size and Variance in Tipster Performance

Sample size in tipster evaluation is key when verifying tipsters. A tipster with only a few weeks of results could show a misleadingly high win rate purely due to short term luck.

The more data you have the better you can account for variance in betting performance.

Long term betting success comes from consistency over hundreds – or even thousands – of bets not just a handful of wins.

1. Probability in Sports Betting 

Tipsters should be using sound principles of probability in sports betting to inform their strategy.

Confidence intervals are a way to measure the probability that a tipster’s results are due to skill not luck.

When assessing a tipster look for results that show confidence over time not just short term spikes.

2. Betting Strategy Verification

It can also be helpful to understand the betting strategy behind the tipster’s selections.

Whilst you would never expect a tipster to give away all their secrets per se, they should at least be able to say in simple terms how they derive their “edge” over the bookies.

How do they find value? What process do they use to identify selections?

If they can’t explain that simply and clearly then it could be a cause for concern.

Or if their approach sounds too basic, or too unworkable, to be profitable then you may decide to give the tipster a swerve.

In addition to that, a tipster should usually explain what kind of staking plan they are using.

A good staking plan is a key part of any successful betting strategy and staking plan analysis will show if a tipster is managing risk well.

A tipster’s strategy should match your goals and risk tolerance.

 

Tipster Auditing Services and Third-Party Verification

One of the best ways to verify sports tipster claims is to use independent, third party auditing services like this site.

We and other reputable third party tipster proofing sites are services that track tips in real-time and offer full transparency.

That means tipsters can’t manipulate their results or hide losses.

1. Recording Results

These days more bettors are turning to review and proofing sites to ensure that tipsters’ records are genuine. 

When we review a tipster, we record every tip they provide – just as it is given out, with nothing fudged or hidden.

All results are recorded in full in spreadsheets available for anyone to view. 

2. Odds Availability

We also note how available the odds were at the time the tips were sent out.

Sometimes odds crash, for example if a tipster is very popular or they tip in very niche markets with thin liquidity. 

A key factor for anyone thinking about following a tipster is whether you can achieve the advised odds (or close to them). 

There’s no point in following a tipster if they advise a player at 50/1 but you can only back them at 25/1, when all the value has gone. 

We also note the Betfair Starting Price (BSP) of tips (if applicable in the relevant sport), as this is a good standard metric that everyone can achieve – presuming exchanges are accessible in their country of course. 

Good proofing or verification sites should be recording the availability of odds to give bettors an idea of whether the results claimed by a tipster are actually achievable or not. 

Too often tipsters have results that seem very good on the surface, but on closer inspection are not really achievable for their followers. 

3. Standard Metrics

A good proofing site should include the standardised metrics discussed above (win rate, ROI, CLV etc.) for easy comparison.

This allows bettors to get a fuller sense of the tipster’s performance than the bare results may suggest and allows comparison between tipsters.

Fraudulent Tipster Detection

Unfortunately fraudulent tipsters are rife in the industry. Sites like ours are not able to verify the results of all tipsters sadly, as there are literally thousands out there. 

When looking at a tipster though, be wary of tipsters making unrealistic betting claims such as guaranteeing profits or offering high returns without evidence.

You could ask them to submit themselves to verification through a site like ours if you have doubts. 

Typical red flags of fraudulent and scam sites include one-page sites that are effectively just adverts. These sites are often glossy and cleverly marketed, with promises of riches and do not include results spreadsheets. 

They often include stories like “I was in a dead end job and struggled with my betting. Then I found this secret betting system and now I’m making thousands every month!”

If their results haven’t been independently verified elsewhere, this is a classic warning sign of a dodgy tipster. 

Another giveaway is if the results look too fantastical to be believed. Look at the metrics like ROI and win rate discussed above and whether the claimed results look credible. 

A rule of thumb that has served us well over the years is that if it looks too good to be true, it usually us.

 

Conclusion: Data-Driven Tipster Verification

In the world of sports betting finding a reliable tipster can be a winner. But you need to verify sports tipster claims with a data driven approach.

By focusing on metrics like win rate, ROI and long term consistency you can identify tipsters who offer real value.

Avoid fraudulent tipsters by using verified tipster platforms and third party tipster audits like ours.

These days winning in betting is about research, skepticism of unrealistic claims and ensuring you are not throwing your money away on unreliable or scam tipsters.

With the right tools and a critical mindset, you can navigate the tipster landscape and improve your chances of long-term betting success.