World Cup: Which Groups Could Offer Up the Most Shocks?
Estadio Azteca, the site of the World Cup’s opening game. Photo by Guido Coppa on Unsplash
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is almost here. June 11th marks the fabled date.
That’s the day when co-hosts Mexico will welcome South Africa to the Estadio Azteca in Mexico City to raise the curtain on football’s biggest party.
Across the five weeks that follow, an increased number of 48 nations will be whittled down to just two, who will then do battle at MetLife Stadium in a bid to be crowned world champions. But the road to the final is always one that is littered with banana skins.
Just ask four-time champions Germany. They experienced their finest hour back in 2014 when they won the World Cup for the first time as a unified nation in Brazil, downing Lionel Messi’s Argentina 1-0 in the Rio de Janeiro final after Mario Gotze’s last-gasp winner.
Since then, they have experienced back-to-back group stage exits, with stunning defeats to South Korea in 2018 and Japan four years later spelling the end.
Fast forward to 2026, and a number of groups at the World Cup look ripe for an upset. But which ones should bettors have their eyes on, not only to potentially cash a big underdog winner, but also to avoid a favourite who could fall victim to a stunner?
Let’s take a look.
Group I
France have reached each of the last two World Cup finals, beating Croatia 4-2 on that rainy afternoon in Moscow in 2018, only to fall short in their bid to defend the gold when they were beaten by Lionel Messi’s destiny-bound Argentina in Qatar four years later.
This year, online betting sites have made them genuine contenders once more.
The latest odds from Lucky Rebel Sportsbook position Les Bleus as the 6/1 second-favourites to lift the famous gold trophy for a third time at MetLife Stadium on July 19th, but if they are to do that, they will have to make their way through arguably the most difficult group at the entire tournament.
Dider Deschamps’ men are the overwhelming 2/5 favourites to top Group I, but they will have to be at their very best if they are to live up to the billing.
The returning Norway are considered their biggest threat to the top spot, and with the prolific Erling Haaland leading the line, they will certainly be no pushover.
The Lions thumped Italy home and away in qualifying — with the 4-1 triumph in the San Siro the Azzurri’s biggest home defeat in 70 years — en route to securing their World Cup return for the first time since 1998.
Their talismanic striker hit a mighty 16 goals in just eight games along the way, and he is currently a 14/1 fourth-favourite to finish the tournament as top scorer.
Then there are recent AFCON finalists — or champions, depending on who you speak to — Senegal.
The Lions of Teranga famously upset then-defending champions France in the opening game of the 2002 World Cup in Japan and South Korea, winning 1-0 in arguably one of the greatest upsets of all time.
With a menacing strike force consisting of names such as Sadio Mane, Nicolas Jackson, Ismaila Sarr, and Iliman Ndiaye, they will fancy their chances of upsetting the French once again.
Group F
The Netherlands are the heavy 7/10 favourites to top Group F. Veteran centre back Virgil van Dijk remains elite, Barcelona’s Frenkie de Jong is in the heart of the midfield, while winger Cody Gakpo has already shone at the World Cup before.
Add to that the blistering form of Roma striker Donyell Malen, who has 13 goals in 16 Serie A games since arriving in January, and the Oranje will fancy their chances.
But alongside them in Group F comes perennial underdogs Japan. The Blue Samurai always finds a way to spring the upset at the World Cup.
Four years ago in Qatar, they famously beat both Germany and Spain en route to topping their group, while they also squeezed through as group runners-up in Russia in 2018.
In fact, they have reached the knockout round in three of their last four trips to the tournament, and they will certainly have their eyes on the top spot.
Then comes Sweden, who arguably had the strangest route of anybody to North America.
They lost four of their six qualifying games, drawing the other two, netting just two goals along the way.
However, their impressive performances in the UEFA Nations League earned them a playoff spot, and then, Arsenal’s Viktor Gyokeres would come to the fore.
He netted four goals across two playoff games to ensure that the Blågult made good on their second chance.
The Swedes haven’t been eliminated at the group stage since Italia ’90, reaching the knockout rounds in all four of the tournaments they have qualified for since then.
With Liverpool striker Alexander Isak returning to full fitness, an ageing Dutch defence could have a rough time handling Sweden’s unquestionable firepower up top.
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