Horse Racing Betting: Important Factors That Often Get Overlooked
Horse racing is one of the most exciting sports to bet on, while it’s also one of the sports that requires attention to various details.
Countless punters study form guides, odds, and jockey-trainers’ stats; however, they often look for other information that a casual bettor overlooks.
Such data might seem unimportant at first glance, yet proves critical upon closer inspection, as horse racing isn’t only about picking the fastest horse on paper.
This article covers the most overlooked factors so that we can improve our chances of placing a successful bet.
Track Conditions and Surface Changes
In our opinion, Track Conditions could be the most underappreciated factor of all. It is also one that we can quite easily include in the information we take into account and adjust our strategy accordingly.
For example, we have a favourite who dominated on a dry, fast track, but suddenly struggles to make an impact? Why? Well, it hates when the surface turns into mud and when the turf courses become soft. An experienced punter is alert whenever the chance of surface looms, being ready to avoid the favourite and looking for a horse that would enjoy such a change.
A horse usually runs over one surface, either dirt, turf, or sometimes synthetic, and doesn’t tend to switch often.
However, when the trainer decides to send their trainee to another surface, we should take that into account and reevaluate the odds provided by NetBet or any other site. In general, horses with early speed thrive on the dry and fast tracks, while turf surface is suited to horses with a strong finishing kick.
Pace Scenario
It isn’t enough to pay attention to a horse’s speed figures – they could be very misleading. We recommend considering the whole picture, which means looking at all the participants and playing out the scenario in our head.
Is there a horse with an early speed? How many of them? If there is one or two, probably the pace will be strong and one of the pair will prove to be uncatchable, given that it is a classy horse.
However, if there are numerous horses with early speed, they might compete for the leading spot, pressing the pace too much, and get tired in the end. Such a scenario is the best for the horses in the back of the field, flying to the front in the final stretch.
Weight Assignments
Such a factor isn’t overlooked that often, but in our opinion, the importance of weight assignment isn’t stressed enough. While a few pounds might seem trivial, over longer distances or muddy tracks, it could heavily affect a horse’s run.
Trainers sometimes solve such a situation by hiring apprentice jockeys who get a weight allowance. It’s a good tactic to watch for because the weight allowance could be the deciding factor in the last strides.
Indeed, the weight isn’t usually crucial in the sprint races, but once the distance is longer, the weight will show. We’re talking primarily about races over a mile and a half, where it’s logical that a horse with a higher weight is disadvantaged among horses carrying a lighter weight.
It happens in races called handicaps where the best horse is given the most significant weight to provide the lower-rated horses a better chance.
The top-class horses can sometimes overcome high weights, but on the muddy, heavy ground, it’s challenging to compete against horses with light weights. Therefore, we should consider not only the surface changes, but also the carried weights.
Class Movements
Another subtle change we should take note of is class movements, which occur when a horse is moving up or down in the quality of competition they face. Understanding class levels and paying attention to the movements should help us determine which horse is in the best position to win.
If a horse strikes gold in the maiden, it moves up to allowance or stakes company. Now, it depends on the impression the horse left in the maiden – was it so good that it should have a say even among better or more experienced horses?
Or the other way around – we have a horse that failed to succeed in the stakes, facing now easier competition in allowances.
Still, not all the class drops are positive for the bettors, as such a move could signal the horse is lacking form.
Bad Luck in Previous Races
This is our favourite overlooked factor, because it occasionally yields some great winners with enormous odds. It simply comes down to watching the horse’s previous races, looking for “excuses” why it underperformed.
Sometimes, the horse was ready to win back then, but got blocked in the traffic and couldn’t unfold its finish, or stumbled at the start, or was forced to run wide around the turns.
Such incidents can severely hamper a horse’s chance to win, to the point where it doesn’t even place, which should be addressed in the odds for the next race, as happened, for example, in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile 2023 in the US.
A two-year-old named Fierceness stumbled in his last race, therefore wasn’t considered in the mentioned G1 at Santa Anita park. However, he prevailed grandly as he is a classy horse that simply got unlucky in his prep-race, and his odds looked accordingly.
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