Things have turned around nicely for +EV Football in recent times, with a profit of 31 points made to advised prices since our last update.
That means they are now 2 points up to advised prices for our trial overall.
We are also tracking results by the best closing price (or “CBP”- i.e. just before kick-off) and that continues to perform notably better, with 30 points won since our last update, putting them 15 points up for our trial overall at CBP.
There has been a significant change to the system to our last update. Essentially they concluded that the previous strategy was only performing pretty close to expectation, with 418 winners having been produced this season against an expectation of 414.
The idea behind the strategy was to find selections where the model indicated higher odds than the market, therefore supposedly providing value. However, that approach did not work.
So they are taking a different approach and actually following what the market is telling them. This “contrarian” betting strategy has been performing very well so far since it started on 13th May, with over 30 points profit made.
It’s early days but is encouraging so will be interesting to follow and see if it can prove profitable in the long run.
+EV Football – Results Update
25th April 2022
It continues to be something of a struggle for +EV Football unfortunately, with a loss of 14 points made to advised prices since our last update.
That means they are now 29 points down to advised prices for our trial overall.
We are also tracking results by the best closing price (or “CBP”- i.e. just before kick-off) and that continues to perform slightly better, with 8 points lost since our last update and 15 points lost for our trial overall.
Just a reminder that this is an Asian handicap betting strategy with a very high volume of bets. As they say though, it is okay to miss some bets as overall the EV (expected value) should even out over time.
Hopefully results pick up for them but they have warned that running all these models for various leagues requires alot of time and if they have very few members left then the effort required doesn’t match up to the return.
+EV Football – Results Update
12th March 2022
It’s been a tough start to our trial of +EV Football, with a loss of 15 points made so far to advised prices.
We are also tracking results by the best closing price (i.e. just before kick-off) and that is doing slightly better, with just 7 points lost so far.
Just a reminder that this is an Asian handicap betting strategy with a very high volume of bets. There have been over 380 bets for our trial already! As they say though, it is okay to miss some bets as overall the EV (expected value) should even out over time.
Anyway, a bit of a slow start for this one but let’s see if they can get things back on track by the time of our next update.
+EV Football – New Review
8th February 2022
We are starting a new review today of a service called EV Football.
This comes from the Bookie Insiders tipping team, who regular followers may recognise. We have trialled two of their services – their Football and Golf tips – and both have passed our trials with flying colours. The football service made £2053 profit during our trial and the golf service made 438 points profit, or £4380 profit to £10 per point stakes during our trial.
So we were pleased to hear they were launching a new service and have been eager to test it out.
Essentially this is a data-driven model based around goal ratings and expected goals (xG), which are used to create a goal supremacy for each match.
Using their own team and league-specific data they then estimate what the odds should be for a game. If the odds represent value on this model then it becomes a bet.
It only started up a few months ago, but the results so far look promising with 30 points profit made to advised prices and 43 points profit made to best closing price.
That has come with a high strike rate of 59% and a return on investment of around 5%.
Bets come from across the European leagues and are all Asian handicap bets. The nice thing about these kind of bets is there is normally very good liquidity with lots of bookie options and exchanges can be used as well.
There is a high volume of bets so that is something to be aware of, although they say “don’t worry about missing bets because over a large dataset/timeframe each members ROI% will be more or less the same. As an example say one member backed all 3000 bets over a 12 month period and another member only backed 1500 bets I would expect the ROI% for both members to be similar enough (barring some crazy variance in the missed bets).”
That makes sense to us and is a point we have made in other settings before.
Anyway, without further ado let’s get cracking with this trial and see how it gets on. We started proofing bets from 30th January so will record results from then and will update things as we go along here.