Today we are starting a new trial of a popular and well-known betting service called Rebel Betting.
It started out as essentially an arbitrage platform but has recently added another tool, value betting, which is what we will be starting out looking at in this review.
According to the website they have had over 125,000 users of their tools since starting up 11 years ago. which shows you the popularity of the platform.
The idea of the value betting software is to identify instances of overpriced odds that are higher than their true probability. But how do they know if odds are overpriced, you may ask?
Well, some bookmakers have proven that they are extremely good at determining odds that reflects the actual probability of an outcome. These are often referred to as “sharp” bookmakers, or “sharps”. These “sharps” can vary by sport but are generally consistent in their efficiency.
So when there is a difference between the sharps odds and those of other bookies, you place a bet at the other bookie and lock in the value.
It could be for example that team news comes out before a game and alters the odds with the sharps who recognise the affect the news has on the teams’ chances, but some bookies are slow to react and adjust their odds, allowing an opportunity to take advantage.
The software constantly crunches the numbers of all these opportunities, comparing the “sharps” with the rest and churns out value bets you can place, in most instances with a link to the relevant market on the bookie’s website.
You then just place the bet and that is it – no trading or other hedging is required.
This is very similar to a product we looked at last year, Trademate Sports. We are not sure who came first but it is not unusual in this genre to see similar products emerge, particularly if they work well!
The disadvantage of value betting versus arbitrage is that the journey doesn’t tend to be quite as smooth, with more ups and downs, but over the course of enough bets (e.g. 1,000+) you are very likely to be up overall. The graph below illustrates how things may go:
In fact, Rebel Betting say the average results of their users is to double their money in three months, if you place 30 bets per day that is.
That would be pretty decent going and you couldn’t complain if those were your results.
Anyway, let’s see how we get on with the software in our review and we will update results here as we go along.