Understanding Sports Tipster ROI: What Makes a Good Return?

When looking at sports tipsters you need to consider ROI – Return on Investment.

It tells you if following a tipster is worth the effort, risk and money involved. But how do you calculate ROI and what is a good return in the world of sports tipping?

This guide will go into the details of sports tipster ROI and give you tips on how to calculate it and avoid the mistakes.

In sports betting ROI means “Return on Investment” and it measures how much profit you’ve made against how much you’ve staked.

It’s a key indicator of tipster performance and one of the most important metrics for anyone serious about long term betting success.

Definition of ROI in sports betting

At its simplest sports tipster ROI is the percentage return you get from your total stakes over time.

It allows you to compare tipsters by showing the profit (or loss) you can expect to make for every pound staked.

For example a 10% ROI means for every £100 staked you’d have made £10 in profit.

Why ROI is important

ROI is important because it goes beyond win-loss records.

A tipster might have a high win rate but be unprofitable if their tips are on short priced favourites with little value.

A tipster with a lower win rate could have a higher ROI by tipping at higher odds and making long term profitability more achievable.

How ROI differs from simple win-loss records

Win-loss records (also known as “win rate” or “strike rate”) tell you how often a tipster gets it right but don’t show the overall profitability of their tips.

ROI shows you the full picture of tipster performance. It’s about the betting returns not just the number of correct tips.

It’s all about quality not quantity.

ROI and long-term betting success

Over time a positive ROI is a sign of profitable sports tipping.

Inconsistent or negative ROI means a tipster may not have an edge over the market and sticking with them will erode your betting bankroll.

Ultimately, consistent ROI over a large sample size is the foundation of any long-term betting strategy.

How to calculate Sports Tipster ROI: A Step by Step Guide

Now you know what ROI is, let’s get into how to calculate it.

The formula is pretty simple:

ROI (%) = (Total Profit / Total Stakes) x 100

For example if you’ve made a total profit of £500 from total stakes of £5,000 your ROI would be:

£500 / £5,000 x 100 = 10%

Stake sizes and odds

When calculating ROI you need to factor in stake sizes and odds.

Some tipsters recommend level stakes, others recommend different staking strategies based on confidence levels.

This is why ROI is a useful metric – it tells you the return taking all stakes into account, whether the tipster bets at level stakes, variable staking or otherwise. 

What is a Good ROI in Sports Tipping?

What is a good ROI?

The answer depends on the sport, bet type and win rate.

Sport	Typical Win Rates	Top Tipsters’ long-term ROI
Football	50% or higher	5-10%
Golf	10-20%	20-30%
Tennis	30-50%	5-10%
Horse Racing	15-35%	15-30%
Cricket	30-50%	10-15%

So really ROI needs to be seen in context of the sport and win rate – and other metrics, as we will discuss below – rather than in isolation. 

Considering ROI Alongside Other Metrics

While ROI is an important metric in evaluating a tipster’s performance, it should never be considered in isolation.

To get a true picture of how successful a tipster is, you need to look at several other key metrics that work together to give a complete overview of their performance.

1. Win Rate: The win rate is crucial to understanding the context of ROI. As discussed above, a high ROI with a low win rate might suggest the tipster is targeting long odds, which can lead to bigger wins but fewer of them. Conversely, a tipster with a high win rate but low ROI may be betting on favorites with shorter odds. The relationship between ROI and win rate is usually inversely proportional – the higher one is, the lower the other will be. 
2. Overall Profit/Loss: ROI tells you how efficient a tipster is in making returns relative to stakes, but the overall profit and loss (P/L) shows the total financial impact of their tips. A tipster with a high ROI but a small profit may not be as valuable as one with a lower ROI but a much higher overall profit due to a higher win rate and higher volume of bets.
3. Bet Volume: The number of bets a tipster places is critical to understanding their ROI. A tipster with a high ROI but a low bet volume might not offer enough opportunities to generate consistent profits. On the other hand, a tipster with a high volume but lower ROI can still produce significant profits over time because they place many more bets and can therefore grow the bank.
4. Bank Growth (Return on Capital): Another important measure is how much a tipster grows their betting bank over time, which is effectively their return on capital. This shows how well a tipster compounds profits and manages their bankroll. A tipster with steady bank growth is likely to be using a sustainable staking plan that balances risk and reward.
5. Consistency: The percentage of winning months a tipster has is an important indicator of consistency. A tipster with a high ROI but only a few profitable months may provide a more erratic betting experience. In contrast, a tipster with a solid percentage of winning months (e.g., 60-70%) is more likely to offer steady, reliable profits. Consistency is key in helping you ride out the inevitable downswings and maintain confidence in the tipster’s long-term success.
6. Closing Line Value (CLV): CLV is a measure of how often the odds a tipster bets at are better than the final odds (closing line). If a tipster consistently beats the closing line, it suggests they have a genuine edge over the market. ROI might fluctuate over time, but consistent CLV indicates that the tipster is making good value bets that should, over time, lead to long-term profitability.

Each of these metrics interacts with ROI to provide a more rounded assessment of a tipster’s performance.

For example, a tipster with a moderate ROI but strong CLV and steady bank growth is likely to be more reliable than one with a higher ROI but poor CLV and erratic bank growth.

Understanding how these factors work together is key to evaluating the long-term value of following a particular tipster.

That’s why our reviews consider all these factors together holistically in determining a tipster’s rating rather than viewing a factor such as ROI in isolation.   

A high ROI in itself – whilst obviously being a good thing – is not necessarily proof of a top tipster.

If it’s accompanied by good all-around metrics like strong bank growth, consistent profits, and a solid win rate, it becomes a much stronger indicator of a top quality tipster. 

 

Example of Tipsters with Good All-Around Metrics

Let’s take a look at a couple of examples of tipsters with good all-around metrics. 

Example 1: Horse Racing Tipster with 31% ROI

First up is Hanbury Racing, a horse racing tipster with a very good long-term ROI of 31%. 

As we say though, this needs to be considered in context of the other metrics. Do those stack up or does the service just have a good ROI? 

Well, the ROI has been accompanied by a solid win rate of 22% and excellent long-term profit of over 1,500 points made. 

Bet volume is sound with around 2-3 bets per day on average, meaning the bank can keep ticking along.

Bank growth has been stellar at over 700% since the service started.

Hanbury Racing targets longshots so the consistency can be a little up and down, with for example slightly less than half of the months in 2024 being profitable ones. 

However, taken as a whole these represent first class metrics and the ROI stacks up very well when taken in context with the other stats. 

Example 2: Football Tipster with 10% ROI

Another example is a football tipster called Scottish Confidential with a lower ROI of 10%. How does that stack up against its other metrics though?

Interestingly the lower ROI is correlated with a much higher win rate, of 43%. 

That means it is backing at much lower odds than Hanbury Racing for example but is still able to find value. 

The overall profits are strong too at just over 200 points made. 

The bet volume is reasonable with around 15 bets per week. 

Bank growth hasn’t been quite as impressive as Hanbury Racing but is still formidable at over 400%.

Consistency is good too, with a high proportion of winnings months, although they did struggle a little back in 2021. 

Taken as a whole though these are strong stats and it illustrates the point about a high win rate usually correlating with a lower ROI – but that taken together this can still mean very good overall profit.

Example 3: Horse Racing Tipster with 8% ROI

Thirdly we have a horse racing tipster called Racing Rundown with an 8% ROI.

That has been accompanied by a win rate of 24%, which is solid enough but somewhat below the rate achieved by Scottish Confidential for example. 

The overall profits have been good, with 293 points made to date. 

Bet volume is sound at around 2 bets per day on average. 

Consistency is reasonable but they have been a little up and down, with around 60% winning months so far. 

The overall bank growth is slightly over 100% so far. 

Overall these are good stats, but you can see that despite having a pretty similar ROI to Scottish Confidential, when taken in context of the overall metrics it doesn’t quite measure up to the football service. 

This illustrates the importance of considering ROI in the overall context of performance metrics rather than just in isolation.  

 

ROI by Bet Type

Not all bets are created equal – and neither is their ROI.

The type of bet a tipster recommends can have a big impact on their ROI.

So it’s worth understanding how these bets work.

For example singles are the bread and butter of most professional tipsters.

They’re simple: you back a single outcome and your ROI is a direct reflection of the value in those bets. If a tipster consistently finds value, the ROI can increase over time

On the other hand accumulators (or parlays) are riskier.

These are bets where multiple selections are combined into one bet.

Yes the payouts can be much higher but they come with a catch – all your selections have to win.

A tipster who uses accumulators might have a lower win rate but a high ROI because of the bigger odds. But this can also lead to more volatility in their results.

Then there are value bets where tipsters identify odds they think are mispriced by the bookies.

These bets are often low margin, meaning the ROI will be low but value bettors look to turn over a large number of bets to generate their profits. 

In the end understanding how different bet types impact ROI can help you choose a tipster that fits your betting style.

Whether you like a steady low risk approach or a more adventurous one with bigger payoffs the type of bet has a big impact on ROI.

Variance and ROI

One thing that gets overlooked in sports betting is variance – and boy does it matter!

Variance is the natural ups and downs you get when betting and it can kill your ROI in the short term.

Let’s say you’re following a tipster who focuses on longshots. They might have a lower win rate because the odds they’re targeting are much higher – but that doesn’t mean they’re not good at what they do.

You could go through a long losing streak and see your ROI drop and then a few big wins turn it all around.

On the other hand a tipster backing short priced favourites might have more frequent wins but those small profits can be wiped out by a few losses.

That’s why understanding variance is key. It helps you stay calm during the rough patches and not get carried away with a short term spike in ROI.

In short variance is part of the game and patience is key when evaluating a tipster’s long term performance.

Chasing High ROI

We’ve all heard the phrase “if it sounds too good to be true it probably is.”

The same applies to sports betting ROI. A tipster claiming 50%, 70% or more ROI may grab your attention but be careful – there’s usually a catch.

Tipsters claiming astronomical ROIs can sometimes manipulate the numbers, cherry pick their best results or omit losing bets from their record. In short, they may be scam tipsters.

While it’s possible to get a high ROI in the short term (thanks to variance) it’s incredibly difficult to sustain it over a large number of bets.

So what’s the risk of chasing these numbers? The danger is unrealistic expectations.

If you’re tempted by the big returns you might end up staking more than you can afford, taking unnecessary risks or jumping from one service to another in search of those big gains.

Remember consistency is key. A tipster with a smaller but steady ROI is a much safer bet in the long run than one making outlandish claims.

Betting Bank Management and ROI

Your betting bank – or bankroll – is the lifeblood of your betting journey.

Managing it properly is key to staying in the game and that’s where ROI comes in.

ROI gives you an idea of how much profit you can expect from each bet in relation to your stakes but how you manage your bank can increase or decrease those returns.

The best tipsters often recommend a staking plan that matches their ROI.

For example if a tipster has a lower ROI but higher win rate they might recommend staking a bigger portion of your bank to take advantage of more frequent wins.

But don’t get too carried away. Over staking – especially when chasing high ROI – can quickly drain your bank during a losing streak.

That’s why many experienced bettors use methods like the Kelly Criterion which calculates the optimal stake based on the edge and bankroll size.

This way you’re taking value without putting your whole bank at risk.

In short managing your bankroll in line with the ROI and betting strategy is key to long-term success.

Sample size in ROI calculations

A larger sample size gives a more accurate picture of a tipster’s performance.

A small sample can distort the results especially if the tipster gets lucky early on.

In our reviews we always aim to track at least 100 tips before making any conclusions about a tipster’s ROI.

Really though to get a statistically significant view of a tipster’s ROI you would need hundreds of bets, preferably over 1,000. 

Conclusion – Sports Tipster ROI 

So what have we learned about sports tipster ROI? Here are the key points:

• ROI is important but it’s just one piece of the puzzle. Look at it alongside other metrics like win rate, profit/loss, bet volume and bank growth to get a full picture of a tipster’s performance.
• Bet type matters. Singles, accumulators and value bets all impact ROI differently so understanding what a tipster specialises in can help you manage your expectations.
• Variance plays a big part in short term ROI fluctuations. Be patient and don’t let short term results – good or bad – affect your long-term outlook.
• Don’t chase high ROI. If a tipster is promising big returns take a step back and look at their long-term record.
• Manage your bank wisely. Use a staking plan that matches the tipster’s strategy and your own risk tolerance to protect your bankroll over the long term.

Now you’re ready to follow tipsters who deliver not just big numbers but real long-term value.

Long-term profitability is the goal and understanding ROI is the first step.

Hopefully this article has given you a good overview of how ROI works and how to utilise it in your betting. 

Please remember to always gamble responsibly and good luck with your betting!