Welcome to the Honest Betting Reviews blog. Here you can find the latest updates on betting systems and tipsters currently under review as well as our tips on how to beat the bookies with the best winning betting systems we have profited from,
Well it was one hell of a weekend of betting and I don’t really know where to start!
Perhaps best to start with the election. I am still in the process of picking my jaw up off the floor. I
don’t think anyone was predicting a Tory majority. Certainly not the pollsters and so-called experts anyway. Even David Cameron seemed genuinely surprised. Read more
We are just over two months into our review of Big Race Bookie Busters and it has been a very good performance so far.
They are 130 points in profit at advised prices and 94 points in profit at Betfair SP, very much keeping up their form coming into the trial. Read more
It’s just over two months into our review of Master Racing Tipster so time for an update.
I am pleased to report that this service is doing well – it is just under 70 points in profit at advised prices and over 40 points profit at Betfair SP. Read more
With the General Election tomorrow we thought it would be a good time to cast our thoughts over the betting prospects for the politically-minded punter.
You might be thinking the value is all gone at this stage and on the whole you would be right. For instance, we backed no overall majority over a year ago at above evens and it is now around 1/7.
We also went with the Tories to win most seats at round evens and that is now 1/5.
However, whilst some of the value may have gone on the main markets, there are still opportunities to make a profit.
The question of who will form the next government is a thorny one. Much of the press is working itself into a lather about “legitimacy” saying the party that has the most seats should have the right to govern.
Well as much as this may be the case in theory, ultimately the situation comes down to being able to get a Queen’s speech passed. If you don’t have enough votes in Parliament to do this, you will lose and face reelection.
That would be a humiliating fate for whichever leader tried it, with no doubt dire repercussions for them personally and also their party.
So you can rest assured neither side will want to form a government unless they are confident they definitely have enough votes to get a Queen’s Speech through Parliament.
For Cameron, this means almost certainly another coalition with the Lib Dems will be needed. Clegg has strongly indicated in recent days that he would prefer another coalition with the Tories. If the Tories get between 285 and 290 seats, this is a real possibility as the maths will add up for them.
For Miliband, it seems highly unlikely that Labour will win outright, but combining SNP support with a few of the other smaller parties could well be enough. If Labour gets around 265-270 seats, this is a highly likely outcome.
But Miliband won’t go into coalition with the SNP for fear of the backlash in the rest of the UK.
So we are left with the two most likely options on the basis of current polling, which has the parties neck and neck: either another Tory/Lib Dem coalition or a Labour minority.
You can hedge these two positions nicely to guarantee a profit.
A Labour minority is available at 9/4 currently whilst a Tory/Lib Dem Coalition is priced at 5/2.
Final polling has the parties neck and neck or the Tories in a one point lead. There are now sophisticated tools that predict seat totals not just based on polls but on previous trends like the “shy Tory” factor and incumbency effect.
These tools give the Tories about 277 seats and yet you can get even money with Stan James that they will get less than 287.5 . This seems like a good bet to me. Many people are expecting the Tories to do better than the polls suggest, perhaps harping back to 1992. But modern polling has come on a lot since then and as I say, the general trends towards the Tories have been factored in by election prediction models.
Using the same models, Labour are predicted to get around 267 seats. You can get a general price of 5/6 that they will get between 251-275 seats, which seems a good bet to me. I would be surprised if they get more than 275 seats with the SNP predicted to do so well in Scotland.
Finally the Lib Dems are predicted to face disaster but recent constituency polling has showed them doing a little better than the national polls would predict. You can get 10/11 with Skybet that they got over 25 seats, which seems a good bet to me. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them with 28 -30 seats when all the votes are counted.
I also expect Clegg and Farage to win their respective seats. It looks like the Tories are going to come out in force to tactically vote for Clegg and Farage should just do enough to win UKIP’s biggest target seat.
You can get evens the Clegg/Farage double with William Hill.
Whatever happens it is due to be one of closest elections ever and should make for interesting viewing. Oh – and don’t forget to vote! 🙂
Strike rate refers to the rate at which a system or tipster wins. For example, if a tipster has 100 selections, 45 of which were winners, then that tipster would have a 45% strike rate.
There is no doubt that strike rate is one of the most important elements of a tipster or betting system. If a tipster has a high strike rate, it means they can grow a bank more quickly than one with a low strike rate, even if they both have the same return on investment.
This can be illustrated with an example:
Imagine one system that has a 50% strike rate – let’s call it system A and another one that has a 10% strike rate – let’s call it system B.
To be on the safe side, for system A you would probably want a 25 point bank, which would be 2.5 times the longest expected losing run of 10.
For the system B however, you would probably need a 165 point bank, which is 2.5 times the longest expected losing run of 66.
So imagine that you have £1,000 that you want to invest in a betting system.
For system A, you would divide the bank by 25 to give you £40 per point that you would bet.
For system B, you would divide the bank by 165 to give you £6 per point that you would bet.
Now let’s say each system has a return on investment of 20% and has 100 bets per month.
For system A, it would take you just over a month to double the bank.
For system B however, it would take you over 8 months to double the bank.
This is shown in the example below:
|
System A |
System B |
|
|
ROI: |
20% |
20% |
|
Strike rate: |
50% |
50% |
|
Bet Volume: |
100/month |
100/month |
|
Time to double bank: |
1.25 months |
8.3 months |
|
Bank after 1 year: |
£10,600 |
£2,440 |
So as you can see, after a year system A is up to over £10,000 where as system B is only on £2,440.
This illustrates that importance of strike rate to tipsters and betting systems.
It is also easier to cope when you have a high strike rate as it means more winning bets and shorter losing runs. Systems with low strike rates mean long losing runs and great patience is required to handle them. More often than not you will see people giving up when a long losing run is hit.
So I hope from this article you have seen the importance of strike rate and how crucial it is to take into account when considering a tipster or betting system.
We are just about two months into our Value Football Betting review and thought it would be a good time for an update. Read more
Whilst everybody likes a flutter on the horses, nobody likes to lose their hard-earned money to the bookies. Now imagine if you could increase your chances of picking the right horses and make money on the horses? Sound too good to be true? Well it’s not. Horse betting systems have been around for as long as people have been betting on horses – and the best betting systems can definitely help increase your chances of winning. The trick however is knowing which system to pick or avoid by receiving the best horsing racing tips today!
Most people – whether they realise it or not – use a system of sorts when making a bet on the horses. Whether you choose a horse name that reminds you of your wife’s stunning looks or your son’s cheeky charm, you are using a criteria that helps you to select your horse. Horse betting systems, at their most basic, are just that – a systematic approach to choosing horses based on a set of criteria. Not only do they aim to reduce the odds of losing but most importantly raise the possibilities of winning. Through careful analysis and sophisticated systems of rules, horse betting systems promise to help you pick the winners.
It depends! There is no shortage of horse betting systems available. Unfortunately, many of these systems do not work. Often making outrageous claims regarding guaranteed success and promised profits, they can sadly leave you uncomfortably out of pocket. When they do work however, they can really make a difference. The Racings Professionals AW Service for example, offers an attractive 22% ROI and in 2014 alone, made a 244 points profits. Whilst there are certainly rogue systems out there – there are also some real diamonds!
So how can you sort the wheat from the chaff and select the best betting system for you? One way to avoid spending lots of money on subscriptions to services that don’t work is to consult a reputable and trustworthy betting system review site. Often, these sites will test out different betting systems, paying the subscription fee, placing bets on the received horse tips and reporting back on the results. To make sure the reviews are fair and balanced, look for a site that posts a mixture of reviews that are not only positive, but also negative and neutral.
At Honest Betting Reviews, we can help you find a horse betting system that works. By thoroughly reviewing each betting service and showing those that make clear profits, we identify not only the diamonds on our passed systems list but also the scams.
Nothing beats the excitement of having a flutter, especially when you have leading edge information from those who understand soccer betting systems and horse racing betting tips. It’s even better when you can get free horse racing tips from those in the know. But how do you know the sites offering these tips are legit? Let’s find out
The key to separating the wheat from the chaff is to look for a lack of affiliation. Rather than searching for recommended systems online, search for an impartial review service that is thorough, honest, and occasionally scathing in their appraisals. Avoid those who only give glowing reviews, as they’re likely to be affiliated with or paid by the sites they’re reviewing.
Gambling is fun and those who are dedicated to reviewing, testing, and posting information are throwing just as much into it as you are. You can quickly check their point system to see how much money you would have lost if you’d parted with your cold hard cash. After all, why take the risk when somebody else has.
Scams skew results, fake profits, and hide information to attract punters and their money. Trustworthy betting reviewers conduct tests over approximately three months and post detailed results of where they’ve won and lost. Objective analyses break down the pros and cons of each service and system tested, including financial costs, and time taken to place bets.
There’s too much good betting to be done, and too many systems and services, to waste your time digging for legitimate information. Only choose review sites that clearly group betting services as passed, failed, or neutral. Clear information of start and end bank totals should be available for each site reviewed, as should a clear profit or loss total. Recommended betting banks should also be posted, as well as the risk appetite you’ll need should you decide to use the reviewed system or service.
If you think you’ve found a system or tipping service that’s too good to fail, check around some independent review sites first. The best will have a list of those services currently being trialled, and a link to their websites. This means you can put off paying for a new service until you know it’s tried and true. In the meantime, simply opt for a service that’s received favourable reviews. You can always check back on the one you’re curious about a little further down the track.
Today we provide our US Masters tips:
The US Masters is set up to be a classic. McIlroy goes for the career grand slam, Bubba is aiming for his third title in four years and Tiger Woods makes his return after two months out the game due to injury.
Here are our tips:
Outright tip: Jason Day
The Australian comes into the tournament in fine fettle with a win at the Farmers Insurance Open, 4th at Pebble Beach and 17th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational this season. He has a great record at Augusta with a 3rd in 2013, 2nd in 2011 and 20th last year, so clearly enjoys the course. His game is well set up for it too, being a long hitter with a nifty short game. It’s about time Day claimed his first major and this week offers him the perfect opportunity.
Back Jason Day each way at 15/1 with William Hill (1/4 the odds top 5)
Outright tip: Padraig Harrington
The Irishman made a welcome return to form with a win at the Honda Classic in March and with the weather expected to be tough this week, it could be tailor made for Harrington’s gritty style. His Augusta record is pretty good, with 8th in 2012, 5th in 2008 and 2002 and 7th in 2007. At a massive price, he is worth an interest to at least make a place and perhaps even better.
Back Padraig Harrington each-way at 125/1 with Betway (1/4 the odds top 6)
Outright tip: Phil Mickelson
If there was a course built to suit to Mickelson’s game then surely Augusta is it. With room off the tee, it allows him greater freedom than many courses and Phil shapes the ball the right way – right to left – for many of the dogleg holes. He also has a magical short game that puts him a good few shots ahead of the field before he even tees it up. His phenomenal Augusta record backs up just how well suited his game is for the course, with 3 wins and 7 other top 5 finishes. A little glimpse of form last week should give Phil the confidence he needs to have a crack at a fourth green jacket.
Back Phil Mickelson each-way at 28/1 with Betfair Sportsbook (1/4 the odds top 7)
Outright tip: Brandt Snedeker
A class player who sadly lost his game for a while but now seems to be back, winning at Pebble Beach earlier this year. Twice a contender at Augusta, finishing 6th in 2013 and 3rd in 2008, he also showed his major pedigree by going close at the Open in 2012. Brandt is one of the best putters on tour, which is a crucial factor on the huge, lightning fast greens at the Masters.
Back Brandt Snedeker each way at 40/1 with Betfair Sportsbook (1/4 the odds top 7)
Outright tip: Angel Cabrera
The laid back Argentinian rivals Adam Scott for least frequently seen player on tour, preferring to spend time at home with a good steak and bottle of wine. Perhaps his elusiveness explains the massive price he always seems to be at Augusta, passing under most people’s radar, despite having won here and losing out so unluckily to Adam Scott in a play off two years ago. Cabrera is also a US Open champion so is a “big game” player. His colossal hitting is a big help round here, allied to accurate iron play.
Back Angel Cabrera each way at 100/1 with Betfair Sportsbook (1/4 the odds top 7)
Top 20 finish: Fred Couples
Fred simply loves Augusta and has a phenomenal record here, having won in 1992 and gathered 10 other top 10 finishes. Although over the age of 50, “Boom Boom” still launches the ball past many of his younger rivals and if his putting stands up, it is not out of the realms of possibility that he could be in contention this week. Certainly a top 20 finish is within his powers, particularly with the customary reduced field at Augusta.
Back Fred Couples for a top 20 finish at 11/2 with totesport
First round leader: Sergio Garcia
It is probably asking too much for the mercurial Spaniard to finally deliver the major that his fans have been waiting for over the years. But the Spaniard is still capable of some top quality golf at times and is not afraid to go low at major venues. His great short game gives him an advantage at Augusta and he can work the ball both ways which helps around the many dogleg holes here.
Back Sergio Garcia to be first round leader each way at 45/1 (general)
It is set to be a cracking renewal of the Grand National this year and hopefully the historic Aintree course will be bathed in majestic sunshine.
Here are our tips for the feature race:
No 1 tip: Shutthefrontdoor
It would be a true fairy story if 19-time champion jockey A P McCoy could saddle the winner in his 20th and final Grand National. A winner of the race in 2010 with Don’t Push It, McCoy has a very real chance of doing so again with Shutthefrontdoor, who is owned by JP McManus and trained by Jonjo O’Neill. A winner of the Irish Grand National in 2014 and a novice chase at Aintree in 2013, McCoy’s mount also won his last race, at Carlisle in November. The bookies are right to be worried about this one, with liabilities predicted to be over £100m if Shutthefrontfoor wins. What a story it would be.
Back Shutthefrontdoor: 1pt to win at 8/1 (general)
No 2 tip: Royale Knight
Trainer Dr Richard Newland won this race last year with Pineau De Re at 25/1 and he looks to have a very good chance again this year with Royale Knight. A winner of the Scottish Borders National over 4 miles at Kelso in December 2013, he showed he is capable of staying such an arduous trip not only with that win but following it with another in the Durham National at Sedgefield in October, where he cruised to victory. A thoroughly progressive horse, he has never fallen and only once pulled up, back in 2012.
Back Royale Knight: 1pt each-way at 28/1 with Bet365 (1/4 the odds top 5 places)
No 3 tip: Oscar Time
They say “horses for courses” and if there is a horse that has shown a liking for Aintree then it is Oscar Time. Placed twice before at the Grand National with a 4th in 2013 and 2nd in 2011, he also won the Becher Chase at Aintree in December over the National fences at a shorter distance of 3m 2f, where he jumped supremely. Although 14 years old now, he is clearly still capable of mixing it in top company and no one would be surprised if this grand old horse was up there again this year.
Back Oscar Time: 1pt each-way at 50/1 with Bet365 (1/4 the odds top 5 places)
No 4 tip: Chance Du Roy
Another horse who has shown a liking for Aintree and an ability to handle the National fences is Chance Du Roy. He finished sixth in last year’s race and ninth in 2013, as well as winning the Becher Chase at Aintree in 2013. Off a very good weight this year at 10 st 4 compared to 10 st 6 last year and 11 st 7 in 2013, will mean he has a very live chance of going a few places better this year.
Back Chance Du Roy: 1pt each-way at 40/1 with Bet365 (1/4 the odds top 5 places)
No 5 tip: Carlito Brigante – NON RUNNER
A winner of 10 races in his career, Carlito Brigante is one that has slipped under many people’s radar. An impressive winner at Kelso in October, he also has Aintree experience with two third place finishes in his last two visits to the course, in May last year and October 2013. A very consistent sort with top 3 finishes in each of his last 6 races, at a big price Carlito Brigante could steal the show.
Please note Carlito Brigante is a non-runner, declared Friday 11.15am
For more tips like this, head on over to our free racing tips page to see a full list of the best free tips around.