Which Odds Are Likely to Win? The Truth About Odds and Profitability in Betting

When people search for which odds are likely to win, they’re usually trying to find a sweet spot — that perfect balance between risk and reward.

Should you back the heavy favourite at odds of 1.10? Or is the underdog at 5/1 worth a flutter? Which odds give you the best chance of walking away with a profit?

The answer might surprise you. It’s not just about picking the shortest odds or the biggest prices. It’s about finding value — and that’s the secret sauce in profitable betting.

In this guide, we’ll break down what odds really mean, how to judge which odds are most profitable (rather than just most likely to win), and how you can use this knowledge to improve your betting strategy long-term.

Understanding What Odds Represent

Let’s start with the basics. Betting odds represent two things:

The implied probability of an outcome occurring – or in other words, how likely an event is to happen
The potential return you’ll get if that outcome happens

For example:

Odds of 1/10 (1.10 in decimal) imply a very high chance of winning — roughly 91%.
Odds of 5/1 (6.00 in decimal) imply a much lower chance — just 16.7%.

So, if you’re purely asking which odds are likely to win, the obvious answer is: the shortest ones. A selection at odds of 1.10 is far more likely to win than one at 5.00. But that doesn’t mean you should always back the shortest odds.

Why? Because the odds don’t just reflect likelihood — they can reflect value.

Short Odds = High Win Rate, But Low Profit

Let’s say you back 100 bets at odds of 1.10. They win 90 times, and you lose 10.

Your stake: £10 per bet = £1,000 total
90 wins return £11 each = £990
10 losses cost £10 each = £100

Total return = £990, total loss = £1,000 → Net profit = -£10

You won 90% of the time — and still lost money.

This happens all the time, especially in football betting or tennis, where punters pile into heavy favourites.

But if the odds don’t reflect the true chance of winning, you’re essentially paying over the odds — and that leads to losses.

Longer Odds = Lower Win Rate, But Greater Payout

Now let’s look at 100 bets at 5/1 (6.00) odds. These only need to win 17 times out of 100 to break even.

Stake: £10 per bet = £1,000
17 wins return £60 each = £1,020
83 losses = -£830

Total return = £1,020 → Net profit = £20

In this example, you win just 17% of the time — but end up in profit.

Of course, this assumes that the odds reflect an edge — meaning the 5/1 chances should be closer to 4/1 based on actual probabilities. That brings us to the most important concept in betting:

It’s Not Just About Winning — It’s About Value

The key question isn’t “which odds are likely to win?” — it’s:

Are the odds better than they should be based on the true probability of the outcome?

That’s what we call value. If something has a 50% chance of happening and you’re getting even money (2.0), there’s no value.

But if you’re getting 2.10, suddenly there’s a small edge in your favour.

Value betting is all about finding prices where the bookies have made an error — and exploiting it.

It doesn’t matter whether the odds are short or long. What matters is whether the odds offer more than the true chance of winning.

So… Which Odds Are Most Likely to Be Profitable?

Let’s answer the real question behind the search: which odds are likely to win in a profitable way?

The truth is, it depends on the market, your betting style, and your ability to spot value. But here are a few general truths:

✅ 1. Mid-range odds (2.00 to 4.00) often offer the best balance

These prices win often enough to maintain your morale and bankroll, but still offer decent returns.

Many successful tipsters and traders operate in this range, particularly in football and tennis.

✅ 2. Longer odds (5.00+) can be profitable — if you’re selective

Backers of big-priced horses, underdogs, or draw outcomes often lose more than they win — but when they do win, the profits can be huge.

These bets require more discipline and a strong understanding of value.

✅ 3. Very short odds (1.20 and below) are risky despite high strike rates

These selections win most of the time — but the losses when they don’t can wipe out dozens of previous wins.

Unless you’re trading or using them in clever multiples, it can be difficult to make much profit from such low odds bets – by definition the wins are small.

What the Bookies Don’t Want You to Know

Bookmakers build in a margin into every market. That means the odds you see always offer slightly less value than the true probabilities — unless they make a mistake.

Your job is to beat that margin — or identify when the bookies have made a mistake.

That’s why value betting, matched betting, and arbitrage betting all exist — they exploit either promotional offers or pricing inefficiencies.

So rather than asking “which odds are likely to win?”, ask:

Is this price bigger than the true chance of winning?
Am I getting a good deal?

If yes — then that’s a good bet, whatever the odds may be.

Real-Life Example: The 3 Odds Betting Strategy

Some punters swear by backing selections around 3.00 (2/1) — high enough to offer a strong return, but not so long they rarely win. You can read more about the 3 odds betting strategy here.

Let’s say you bet £10 on 100 selections at 3.00:

You win 35 times, lose 65
35 wins = £30 each = £1,050
65 losses = -£650
Total return = £1,050 – £650 = £400 profit

You’ve only won 35% of the time — but you’ve made a healthy profit, because you found value at those odds.

How to Find the Right Odds for Your Style

There’s no one-size-fits-all answer. But here are a few tips to guide you:

🎯 1. Track Your Bets

Record every bet, the odds, stake, and result. Over time, you’ll spot patterns — maybe you’re profitable at 3.00, but not at 1.50.

🎯 2. Follow Trusted Tipsters

Some tipsters specialise in specific odds ranges. For example, draw tipsters tend to operate at 3.00–3.50. Lay tipsters may focus on favourites below 2.00. Find one that fits your risk profile.

🎯 3. Look for Price Boosts and Promotions

Sometimes bookmakers boost odds for big events or offer enhanced accas. These can turn otherwise average bets into +EV (positive expected value) opportunities.

🎯 4. Learn to Calculate Implied Probability

It’s simple:
Implied probability = 1 / decimal odds × 100
Then ask yourself: does that percentage seem fair based on form, stats, or context?

Final Thoughts: Which Odds Are Really Worth Backing?

If you’re looking for a simple takeaway to the question which odds are likely to win, here it is:

Odds alone don’t determine profit — value does.

Yes, short odds are more likely to win. But they don’t always offer value. Longer odds may win less frequently, but when combined with good value, they can yield better returns over time.

The smartest bettors don’t chase winners — they chase value. Sometimes that’s at 1.90. Other times it’s at 6.00. But it’s never about the odds alone.

If you’re serious about making money from betting, start thinking less about how often you win — and more about how much you get paid when you do.

Frequently Asked Questions

❓ What are the safest odds to bet on?

The safest odds are generally short prices (e.g. 1.10 or 1.20), but these also offer the smallest returns — and if one loses, you can wipe out many previous wins.

❓ Can you make money betting on short odds?

Only if you consistently find value — that is, when the probability of winning is higher than the odds suggest. Otherwise, short odds are often overbet and not profitable long term.

❓ What is the most profitable odds range?

Many professional bettors find a sweet spot between 2.00 and 4.00, where the win rate is reasonable, and the returns are high enough to be worthwhile.