Searching for the most valuable welcome offers is an essential part of taking the most advantage of the modern betting environment.

Bookmakers are increasingly using these promos to attract new customers, offering ever more generous bonuses that can significantly enhance your available bankroll.

But here’s the thing, finding the best welcome offers isn’t exactly straightforward. Cutting through the noise can be difficult with so many potential options available, and bettors must also be wary of unrealistic terms and conditions, like sky-high wagering requirements.

Ultimately, you’ll need guidance to find the best promos, but learning the ropes doesn’t have to be difficult.

Fortunately, we’re here to help. Our comprehensive experience with all things sports betting puts us in a perfect position to assist our readers in finding the most valuable promos.

Keep reading for an in-depth guide on how to find the best welcome offers.

What is a Welcome Offer?

First things first, what is a welcome offer? All bookmakers now offer some sort of welcome package for new customers, which is designed to help them get to grips with the platform.

These offers are especially attractive for beginners, who can garner particular value from things like free bets and deposit matches.

This brings us to the inner mechanics of most sports betting welcome offers.

These promos typically offer free bets or deposit matches, essentially giving bettors bonus funds or wagers that can be used outside their deposited cash.

For example, this sign up offer from 10bet currently offers a 100% match up to £50. This means that bettors can claim an extra £50 on top of their deposit, although it’s important to note that this is paid as bonus funds, not real money.

Still, £50 can go a long way if you’re savvy with your wagers. And win or lose, promos like this provide vital funds for trying new bet types or markets.

Why Finding the Best Welcome Offers is So Important

In the same way as reviewing and scrutinising a football winning system like Predictology, employing careful research to find the most valuable welcome offers is also essential.

The most pressing reason for this is that you could be missing out on a more valuable promo elsewhere.

For example, one bookmaker may offer a deposit match up to £50, while another could offer bonus funds up to £100.

Nobody likes missing out on a golden opportunity, so assessing your options before pressing ahead is crucial. But this is just the tip of the iceberg. It’s also important to consider your own preferences when searching for welcome offers, otherwise, you might be left claiming a promo that doesn’t work as well for your betting style.

For example, bookmakers can offer free bet tokens rather than straight bonus funds. This might suit bettors looking to make a small number of larger wagers, but other bettors may prefer playing it safer with lots of small bets.

The latter isn’t possible for welcome bonuses with set bet amounts, so bear this in mind.

And then there are the terms and conditions. We’ll go into more detail regarding these aspects further down the page.

For now, just consider how wagering requirements can affect your overall ability to withdraw funds. Some bookmakers may ask you to wager your deposit 10x over before you can withdraw any winnings garnered from the bonus.

This may ultimately outweigh a bigger initial bonus, so it definitely pays to know what to look for.

Tips & Tricks: Choosing the Best Welcome Offers

So, how do you find the best welcome offers? As with most things, targeted and strategic research is the best way forward.

Here are some of the main ways you can optimise your search for the best welcome offers:

• Read Reviews: searching for reviews from other bettors is a great way to check the legitimacy of sports betting bonuses. This will also help you decide whether a promo is the top choice for your preferences.
• Look for Low Wagering Requirements: as mentioned, wagering requirements can lock bettors into wagering far more than they actually want to. We advise looking for welcome bonuses with smaller wagering requirements, even if this means accepting a smaller amount of bonus funds.
• Check for Odds Limits: some sports betting sites offer free bets on things like the Premier League, but on closer inspection, these are only available on certain odds. Don’t let these limits fool you as they can mean you cannot use the free bets exactly how you’d like.

 

 

In the world of sports betting, tipsters can be a great help for punters looking for tips and predictions.

As tipster services have grown in popularity however, so have the scams.

With con artists hiding behind legitimate looking services, knowing the red flags has never been more important.

In this article we’ll go through the most common sports tipster scams and arm you with the knowledge to avoid getting caught out in 2024.

The Sports Tipster Scam Epidemic

Sports betting has been around for centuries but with the rise of the internet, it’s never been more accessible.

With that came the rise of sports tipsters – experts in their respective field who offer advice on what to bet on.

Some are genuine but many are using their platforms to rip off unsuspecting punters.

In the last few years sports tipster scams have gone through the roof with more and more people getting caught out.

Stats show a big rise in sports betting scams with the UK’s Gambling Commission reporting more and more incidents year on year.

The impact is huge – not just on individual punters who can lose big sums of money but on the sports betting industry as a whole.

Fake betting tips and manipulated win rates can damage the reputation of genuine tipsters making it harder for punters to trust the services.

Why Do People Fall for Tipster Scams?

So why do people fall for sports tipster scams?

Easy money is a big part of it. Scammers lure in punters with promises of insider knowledge and guaranteed wins, playing on the human desire for fast, easy profit.

Add in some clever psychological tricks and they can be very persuasive.

One of the main tools scammers use is FOMO – Fear of Missing Out.

They tell potential victims they’re about to miss out on a one off betting opportunity and if they don’t act fast they’ll regret it.

This sense of urgency can cloud a punter’s judgement and lead them straight into the hands of gambling con artists.

 

10 Red Flags to Watch Out For

To help you avoid falling victim to fraudulent services, we’ve compiled a list of 10 red flags that should immediately raise your suspicions.

From unrealistic win rates to vague refund policies, here are the tell-tale signs of a sports tipster scam in 2024.

Red Flag #1: Lack of Transparency in Track Record

A genuine tipster will provide a transparent and verifiable betting track record.

Unfortunately many scammers cherry pick their results, only showing winning bets and conveniently ignoring losses.

This selective reporting is a big red flag in sports tipster sites.

To avoid getting duped insist on seeing the full unedited track record.

Independent review and proofing sites like this one can help you verify the results of a tipster.

We record all the results of a tipster we review in full, with nothing fudged or hidden so you can see for yourself how well they’ve done.

If you have doubts about a tipster’s record, ask them to submit to proofing on a site like ours so we can track the results in real time. 

If they refuse then it could be a cause for concern. 

Red Flag #2: Unrealistic Profit Claims

Another common warning sign of sports tipster scams is the promise of unrealistically high profits.

Many scammers lure bettors with bold claims of generating huge returns—far beyond what is achievable in the world of sports betting.

For example, tipsters may boast about turning a small bankroll into thousands of pounds in just a few weeks or advertise exaggerated profit margins like 500% per month.

Or they offer vague, unverifiable claims like “$10,000 made in a single weekend.”

These kinds of promises are not only misleading but also mathematically implausible.

In reality, even the best sports bettors operate on relatively small margins.

The very best tipsters may be pleased with a profit of 100-200 points per year (to one-point levels stakes or thereabouts). 

That would be £1,000 – £2,000 profit per year at £10 per point.

Tipsters who claim to regularly generate profits far beyond this are likely engaging in deception or heavily exaggerating their results.

Sports betting is not a get-rich-quick scheme, and anyone who presents it as such is not being truthful. 

Red Flag #3: Too Good to Be True Win Rates & ROI

In a similar vein, another big indicator of sports tipster scams is the promise of unrealistic win and return on investment (ROI) rates.

A high win rate – say 90% or higher – is a cause for suspicion in itself, but particularly if the claimed return on investment is also high.

As we have discussed when looking at how to verify sports tipster claims, a high win rate is usually associated with a low return on investment (ROI). 

If a tipster claims they have hit a 90% strike rate, then you would normally expect the ROI to be around 5-10%, at best. 

If they are claiming an ROI of +30% with a strike rate of 90%, that should be an immediate red flag. 

That is almost impossible to achieve long-term and we are yet to see any tipster who can do it, having reviewed hundreds. 

An ROI of 30% is usually associated with a win rate of 10-25%. 

That is because to achieve such a high ROI you generally need to be tipping at long odds (10/1+) for there to be enough edge in the prices. 

At a 90% strike rate a tipster will be tipping at odds-on, probably as low as 1.10-1.20. 

At those odds, there simply isn’t enough margin to achieve a 30% ROI. 

Even the top professionals such as Tony Bloom are reportedly happy with a 1-2% ROI when betting at odds-on. 

Be very suspicious if a tipster is claiming a high ROI when accompanied by a high win rate.

Look for independent reviews and use websites like this that track tipster performance.

If the win & ROI rate seems too good to be true, they probably are.

Red Flag #4: One-Page Sales Sites

A frequent sign of a fraudulent tipster is a single-page website. 

These are often glossy sales pages  and are typically polished and skillfully marketed.

They usually make grand promises of profits but lack verified results or even a results spreadsheet you can examine.

They often feature narratives like, “I tried every tipster and betting system out there but just kept losing money. Then I discovered this secret betting system, and now I earn thousands every month!”

This is usually accompanied by a story about the luxurious lifestyle that person now enjoys, being able to travel and buy expensive cars, clothes and the like.

Sometimes there will be screenshots of winning betslips, showing thousands won in a single bet.

However, these screenshots can easily be faked. Or even if they happen to be real, the person may have placed hundreds of other losing bets and they are only showing you the winning one – not their overall record. 

If one of these sites does happen to show their full results, then unless those results have been independently verified by a reliable source it doesn’t mean much.  The results could still be fake. 

These sites also often have time-limited offers, telling punters they’re about to miss out on the opportunity of a lifetime if they don’t sign up. 

Whilst a tipping service having a time-limit on a special offer isn’t itself the sign of a scam, when accompanied by some of the tactics described above and unrealistic claims of riches, it is a red flag.  

Be very wary of these glossy one-page sales sites, unless their results have been independently verified by a trusted source. 

Red Flag #5: Guaranteed Wins and Risk Free Promises

One of the biggest red flags in sports tipster scams is the promise of guaranteed wins or risk free betting (unless it is matched betting, but that is something separate entirely).

No matter how confident someone is in their tips, there are no guarantees in sports betting.

All bets carry risk and anyone who claims otherwise is trying to scam you.

And offering guaranteed wins can be in breach of gambling regulations in certain jurisdictions.

Reputable tipsters are always transparent about the risks involved in betting and never make outlandish risk free claims.

Red Flag #6: Suspicious Charging Structures

Another red flag to watch out for is tipsters with suspicious charging structures. 

Genuine tipsters often provide free picks or low-cost trials to prove the value of their service.

But scammers spin this by either not offering free trials or using them as a bait to catch victims, with a huge jump in subscription costs after the free trial.

So for example they might offer a 7-day free trial, then bump up subscription costs to $199 per month, which is often buried in the small print.  

When considering a tipster, look for those who offer a genuine free or low-cost trial with no hidden catches and transparency about what happens when the trial ends.

A low cost trial would typically be $1-5 for a week or two’s trial for example.

Then a reasonable subscription would be say $30-50 per month, but certainly not hundreds of dollars. 

A good service will be confident enough in their tips to offer a free or low cost trial to let you test them out before committing, and be transparent about the cost after the trial ends.

Red Flag #7: Vague or Non-Existent Refund Policy

Another common scam is a vague or non-existent refund policy.

Scammers don’t want to give refunds and have obscure terms and conditions that make it impossible for punters to get their money back.

Before signing up to any tipster service read their refund policy carefully.

If the terms are unclear or confusing it’s a big red flag that the service may not be legit.

Red Flag #8: Inconsistent or Changing Identity

Scammers often operate under multiple identities to avoid detection.

One day they may be “John the Expert Tipster” and the next “Paul the Insider Betting Guru”.

This inconsistency is a big red flag in social media betting scams.

A good tipster will have a consistent online presence with a stable name, branding and track record.

Be cautious of services that rebrand or change identities.

Red Flag #9: Overly Complex or Changing Betting Systems

Scammers use overly complex or changing betting systems to confuse their victims.

By creating a mystery around their methods they make it hard for punters to evaluate if the system works.

If the punter then complains about results, they respond that they haven’t understood the system properly and it’s their own fault.  

Another tactic used by dodgy tipsters is to constantly change systems. 

When one doesn’t work they just introduce a new one – often with backtested or fake results to make it look good. 

Alternatively they may have a whole suite of systems, most of which lose money over the long run.

The tipster might say “it’s okay, look at these three systems, they are all in profit,” whilst they have seven other systems that are losing money. 

Then the next month two systems make a profit and they say “you should have followed those two.”

It’s all easy in hindsight but for the punter trying to follow the systems it is not helpful. 

Legitimate tipsters would acknowledge the overall results of the systems and not try to hide behind the small number that might have made a profit. 

Red Flag #10: Promoting High-Risk Betting

Finally be cautious of tipsters who promote high-risk betting. 

Dodgy tipsters often push dangerous strategies like high-stakes gambling without considering the consequences for punters.

This could for example be advising very high staking – “Bet $100 on this player” or “Stake $500 on this player”- rather than advising a point (or unit) stake with each bet so the punter can decide for themselves how much to stake based on their own betting bank. 

Scam tipsters also often use complex and flawed staking systems that aim to recover losses.

For example the Martingale system or similar loss-recovery systems that can end up busting the bank. 

We would never recommend these staking systems and nor should any reputable tipster. Or at the very least, they should also show their results to one-point level stakes. 

And any loss-recovery staking should be strictly limited, such as only increasing stakes over a small number of bets (say 5 or 6), then starting again if a winner isn’t found. 

Certainly they shouldn’t be recommending open-ended loss-recovery staking, which is a quick way to lose your shirt. 

Any tipster doing do so is likely to be trying to hide poor results with complex staking.

If the strategy can’t make a profit at level stakes, then it is not worth following and loss-recovery is just a dangerous attempt to hide the flaws in the strategy. 

Good tipsters on the other hand promote sensible staking, responsible gambling and advise their clients to bet within their means.

If a tipster is pushing you to bet with high-risk staking it’s a clear sign they don’t have your best interests at heart.

Conclusion: How to Avoid Sports Tipster Scams in 2024

The world of sports betting is full of opportunity and risk.

While some tipsters are genuine, the rise of sports tipster scams means you need to be more careful than ever.

By knowing the red flags in this article you can protect yourself from gambling scammers and make informed decisions on who to trust with your bets.

Remember the age-old maxim: if it seems too good to be true, it probably is.

Look out for unrealistic win rates, pressure sales tactics and lack of transparency and always check a tipster’s track record before you commit.

The more informed you are the better equipped you’ll be to avoid getting scammed.

 

 

Football has many markets to bet on and one that confuses punters is the “under 1.0” bet. This type of bet is popular in matches where low scoring games are expected.

But what does “under 1.0” actually mean and how can you make sense of it when placing your bets?

In this article we will break down the “under 1.0” betting, explain it in simple terms and look at some strategies for betting on it.

Whether you are a seasoned punter or just starting out by the end you will know what “under 1” means and how to use it to your advantage.

 

What does ‘Under 1.0 Goals’ mean in Football Betting?

Firstly, let’s take a look at exactly what ‘under 1.0 goals’ means in football betting. 

Definition of ‘under 1.0 goals’ bet

In football betting “under 1.0 goals” means a bet that there will be less than one goal in the whole match. So you are betting that the total goals will be zero, or in other words a 0-0 draw.

How this bet works

If the final score is 0-0, you win the bet.

If one goal is scored, you get your stake back and no money is lost or gained (this is called a “push” or “void”).

If more than one goal is scored, you lose your bet entirely.

Here is a table summarising how the under 1.0 bet works: 

 

Match Outcome	Under 1.0 Bet Result
0-0	Win
1-0 or 0-1	Push (stake returned)
1-1, 2-0, 2-1, etc	Loss

 

👉 Check out our top recommended over under tipster here.

 

Under 1.0 vs Under 1.5

It’s important to note the difference between “under 1.0 goals” and “under 1.5 goals“.

Under 1.0 means you need a 0-0 result to win, under 1.5 means you win if there are less than two goals in the match.

So if the match ends 1-0 or 0-1 you would have you stake returned on an under 1.0 bet but win an under 1.5 bet.

The difference between under 1.0 goals and under 1.5 goals can be summarised as follows:-

 

Criteria	Under 1.0 Goals	Under 1.5 Goals
Winning Outcome	0-0	0-0, 1-0, 0-1
Push (stake returned)	1-0 or 0-1	N/A
Losing Outcome	1-1, 2-0, 2-1, etc	1-1, 2-0, 2-1, etc

Typical Odds for Under 1.0 Goals Bet

The odds for an under 1.0 goals bet will typically be high. 

For example, in a match between Manchester Utd and Tottenham Hotspur, the odds for under 1.0 goals is 12.0 (odds from the Betfair Exchange).

That compares to odds of 7.6 for under 1.5 goals and odds of 26.0 for the 0-0.

 

What does ‘Under 1 Mean’ in different situations

Let’s have a look at some examples of what under 1 goals means in different scenarios. 

What happens if no goals are scored?

When no goals are scored in a match (0-0) an “under 1.0 goals” bet is a simple win.

This is what you are hoping for when you place this type of bet.

What happens if one goal is scored

If one goal is scored the bet is a “push” and your original stake is returned.

You neither win nor lose, which is safer than other markets where any goal would mean a loss.

Split bet scenarios and partial wins/losses

In some cases you will find bets like “under 1.25 goals” which are split between under 1.0 and under 1.5.

If one goal is scored half your stake is returned (under 1.0 part) and the other half wins (under 1.5 part) so you will get a partial win.

Extra time and penalties for under 1.0 bets

Remember that “under 1.0 goals” bets only apply to regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).

Extra time, penalties and other post-90 minute events don’t count towards the bet.

 

Under 1.0 Goals pros and cons

What are the pros and cons of betting on under 1.0 goals then?

Pros

One of the main advantages of betting under 1.0 is the reduced risk.

If one goal is scored you get your stake back. This can be attractive for bettors who want to protect their bankroll in low scoring matches.

Cons and risks

On the other hand under 1.0 goals betting is very risky if two goals are scored.

The margin for error is very small and in most football matches there is always the possibility of late drama or surprise goals.

Compared to other football betting options

When compared to “under 2.5” or “over 1.5” this is a niche market.

It’s for those who expect a very low scoring match, it’s much riskier than betting on higher goal lines.

Things to consider before you bet under 1.0

Before you bet on this type of bet consider the teams’ defensive records, recent form and playing style.

Matches with solid defences or unmotivated attacking teams may be good for under 1.0 goals bets.

Strategies for under 1.0 Goals Betting

Research team stats and form

Before you bet on under 1.0 goals research on stats from sites like Flashscore is key. Look into the teams’ recent defensive performances, goal averages and clean sheets.

Teams that draw 0-0 or struggle to score are good for this market.

Ideally what you are looking for in this market is teams who tend to have 0-0 results, but the occasional 1-0 or 0-1. 

Remember games with one goal are okay, you get your stake returned. 

What we are trying to avoid are games likely to have two or more goals. 

Head to head and playing styles

Some teams have a style that leads to low scoring games.

A match between two defensive teams or a fixture with a history of 0-0 draws can be a good opportunity for this bet.

External factors (weather, injuries, motivation)

Weather, key injuries to attacking players, lack of motivation (like in a dead rubber match) can contribute to a low scoring match and make under 1.0 goals a good bet.

Timing and odds movement

Timing your bet is also important.

Odds on under 1.0 can move based on team news, pre-match analysis or in-play events.

Keep an eye on these movements to place your bet at the right time.

 

Mistakes to avoid when betting under 1.0

Ignoring the draw

Many bettors forget to consider the draw when betting under 1.0 goals. But this is the only scenario where you win the bet outright so you must consider if a 0-0 draw is possible.

Ignoring recent team trends

Team form and recent results are key. If you ignore recent trends or rely too much on old data you’ll be betting against the current momentum of a team and increase your risk.

Not shopping for the best odds

Shopping around for the best odds on under 1.0 can make a big difference to your long term profits.

Different bookmakers have different odds on the same market so it’s worth comparing before you bet.

Betting to recover losses with under 1.0 bets

And finally, betting to recover losses by doubling down on under 1.0 bets is a common mistake.

As with any type of betting, you must manage your bankroll and not get tempted to recover your losses quickly.

 

Conclusion

In summary, under 1.0 goals is a special market that requires research and knowledge of football.

It’s a bet for punters who expect a 0-0 draw with the safety net of a stake refund if one goal is scored.

By understanding this bet type and applying some strategies you’ll increase your chances of winning and minimize the risk.

Find out who the Best Football Tipsters in the World are here.

 

The sports betting industry has been flooded with tipsters in recent years, many promising big returns and consistent winners.

But how do you prove a tipster’s claims and follow a genuine expert rather than a scam tipster?

These days a data driven approach is the best way to separate the wheat from the chaff.

This guide will show you how to verify a tipster’s performance, understand the metrics and not get caught out by unrealistic claims.

Why Verifying Sports Tipsters Matters

With so many sports tipster services out there it’s easy to get swamped by flashy websites, testimonials and high win rates. But without verification these claims can be misleading.

Verifying tipster claims is important for transparency in the betting industry and to make sure you invest your bankroll wisely.

Tipster transparency and tipster credibility are key to making smart betting decisions.

What to Look For When Verifying a Tipster

When verifying a tipster’s performance there are several key metrics to look at.

The most common are profit/loss (P/L), win rate, return on investment (ROI), closing line value (CLV) and bank growth (also known as return on capital).

Understanding these metrics will help you see through the hype and focus on long term profits.

1. Historical Betting Data Showing Profit and Loss

Any genuine tipster should have a transparent record so you can review their historical bets.

Tipster record keeping best practice is to document every bet, including the odds, stake and result, showing their total profit and loss (P/L) for the whole period they have been tipping.

The P/L figures are normally shown in point or unit terms. 

For example a tipster might have made 250 points profit in total since they started tipping. 

That would mean if you had staked £10 per point on each of their tips, you would have made £2,500 profit in total. 

All tipsters should have a fully-documented track record (usually in the form of a spreadsheet or similar such results sheet) showing their results.

Lack of transparency in a tipster’s betting history is a big red flag.

2. Tipster Win Rate

A tipster’s win rate (also known as strike rate) is an important metric but you need to interpret it correctly.

Sports prediction accuracy varies widely across sports and on the basis of whether the tipster targets long-shots or favourites. 

In sports like football and tennis for example, win rates tend to be much higher than in sports like horse racing and golf. 

That’s because tipsters in football and tennis tend to back at shorter odds.

That could be for example backing a team or player to win an individual match, which are often priced at odds-on (under 2.0 in decimal odds) or at single figure odds. 

Tipsters in horse racing and golf, on the other hand, often tip at much higher odds.

A horse racing tipster tipping horses to win races at average odds of 20/1, or a golf tipster tipping players to win tournaments at average odds of 50/1, are naturally going to have lower win rates than a football tipster tipping teams to win matches at average odds of 2.0. 

So the win rate needs to be taken in context of the sport being tipped in and the average odds of the selections.  

A high win rate is impressive but doesn’t guarantee profitability without considering other factors such as ROI.

It is also important to look for consistency in the win rate over a large sample size.

3. ROI in Sports Betting

Return on investment (ROI) is a key figure that shows how much profit a tipster is making relative to the stakes. 

For example if a tipster returns $20 profit for every $100 staked, their ROI would be 20%.

A tipster may boast about their win rate but without a healthy ROI the tips may not translate into real profits.

At the same time, a very high ROI is often a red flag in sports betting.

A tipster can have a high ROI over a short period of a few months perhaps. 

If their long-term results, covering hundreds of bets and over a period of two years or more shows an ROI that seems too good to be true however, then it is right to be cautious. 

What is too high though in ROI terms? 

Well again it varies by sport and should be seen in context of the win rate. 

In sports like golf and horse racing, where the win rate tends to be lower (often around the 10-20% mark) top tipsters can achieve ROIs of 20%, or even 30% over the long run. 

Much above 40% ROI though and you would have to start questioning the veracity of the tipster’s results. 

Tipsters with higher win rates normally have much lower ROIs.

So a tennis or football tipster with a 50% win rate might only have an ROI of 5-10%. 

If they have a high win rate of over 50% and are claiming an ROI of over 20% or 30%, it should raise red flags. 

Those sort of metrics can be achieved over short periods – 6 months to a year perhaps – but are extremely difficult to maintain over longer time periods. 

The reason is that at short odds there is much less likely to be a significant margin in the bets. 

A horse racing tipster might be able to find a horse that is priced at 28/1 when it should be 20/1 for example.

That would represent a significant edge for the horse racing tipster over the bookies.

But a football tipster tipping at low odds would do very well to find even a few ticks of value – say a team that is priced at 2.2 when they should be 2.04. 

That lower margin translates into a lower ROI in the long run. 

The ROI/win rate metrics by sport then tend to be approximately:  

Sport	Typical Win Rates	Top Tipsters’ long-term ROI	Cautionary ROI threshold
Golf & Horse Racing	10-20%	20-30%	+40%
Football & Tennis	50% or higher	5-10%	+30%

So in summary the win rate and the ROI should line up. The higher the win rate, generally the lower the ROI.

Any tipster claiming very high figures for both should be treated with caution. 

4. Closing Line Value

CLV, or Closing Line Value, refers to the difference between the odds at which a tipster tips a selection and the closing odds of that same bet right before an event starts.

So for example if a tipster tips a golfer at 20/1 and their closing odds just before the event starts is 16/1, they have achieved closing line value. 

As we have discussed here, whilst closing line value can be a useful metric in determining whether a tipster is finding value, it is not infallible. 

It can be misleading – for example a tipster might tip in early, illiquid markets. Or a very popular tipster might always see their tips backed heavily, causing them to achieve closing line value regardless of whether they have found value as such. 

Or other tipsters may be tipping at the closing line (Betfair SP) anyway, or be focusing on selections that tend to drift in the market, so are not trying to achieve CLV.

The key thing is to see CLV in context and whether the tipster is a) trying to achieve closing line value and b) it is genuine CLV.

5. Bank Growth (Return on Capital)

Bank growth – also known as “return on capital” – is the extent to which the amount of money you start with (your “betting bank”) grows over a given amount of time.

So for example if you started with a betting bank of $1,000 and after one year it had grown to $1,500, you would have achieved bank growth of 50%.

It is one of the most useful metrics in comparing tipsters because it gives you a clear bottom line about how much money you would have made (or lost) from following a tipster. 

Some tipsters have wildly different win rates, ROIs etc, but what matters in the end is how much they have grown your starting capital. 

A tipster could have a great ROI for example, but only bets once per week making it hard to grow your betting bank. 

Another might have a high win rate, but the ROI is so low you are not actually making much money.

So pay close attention to the bank growth – if it is given by the tipster. Not all tipsters include it in their results but we always include it as a key metric in our reviews.

It can be worked out quite simply by looking at the recommended betting bank for the tipster and then how much that bank has grown or fallen over a period. 

For example if a tipster recommends a 100 point betting bank and they make 50 points profit in a year, they have achieved 50% bank growth. 

 

Sample Size and Variance in Tipster Performance

Sample size in tipster evaluation is key when verifying tipsters. A tipster with only a few weeks of results could show a misleadingly high win rate purely due to short term luck.

The more data you have the better you can account for variance in betting performance.

Long term betting success comes from consistency over hundreds – or even thousands – of bets not just a handful of wins.

1. Probability in Sports Betting 

Tipsters should be using sound principles of probability in sports betting to inform their strategy.

Confidence intervals are a way to measure the probability that a tipster’s results are due to skill not luck.

When assessing a tipster look for results that show confidence over time not just short term spikes.

2. Betting Strategy Verification

It can also be helpful to understand the betting strategy behind the tipster’s selections.

Whilst you would never expect a tipster to give away all their secrets per se, they should at least be able to say in simple terms how they derive their “edge” over the bookies.

How do they find value? What process do they use to identify selections?

If they can’t explain that simply and clearly then it could be a cause for concern.

Or if their approach sounds too basic, or too unworkable, to be profitable then you may decide to give the tipster a swerve.

In addition to that, a tipster should usually explain what kind of staking plan they are using.

A good staking plan is a key part of any successful betting strategy and staking plan analysis will show if a tipster is managing risk well.

A tipster’s strategy should match your goals and risk tolerance.

 

Tipster Auditing Services and Third-Party Verification

One of the best ways to verify sports tipster claims is to use independent, third party auditing services like this site.

We and other reputable third party tipster proofing sites are services that track tips in real-time and offer full transparency.

That means tipsters can’t manipulate their results or hide losses.

1. Recording Results

These days more bettors are turning to review and proofing sites to ensure that tipsters’ records are genuine. 

When we review a tipster, we record every tip they provide – just as it is given out, with nothing fudged or hidden.

All results are recorded in full in spreadsheets available for anyone to view. 

2. Odds Availability

We also note how available the odds were at the time the tips were sent out.

Sometimes odds crash, for example if a tipster is very popular or they tip in very niche markets with thin liquidity. 

A key factor for anyone thinking about following a tipster is whether you can achieve the advised odds (or close to them). 

There’s no point in following a tipster if they advise a player at 50/1 but you can only back them at 25/1, when all the value has gone. 

We also note the Betfair Starting Price (BSP) of tips (if applicable in the relevant sport), as this is a good standard metric that everyone can achieve – presuming exchanges are accessible in their country of course. 

Good proofing or verification sites should be recording the availability of odds to give bettors an idea of whether the results claimed by a tipster are actually achievable or not. 

Too often tipsters have results that seem very good on the surface, but on closer inspection are not really achievable for their followers. 

3. Standard Metrics

A good proofing site should include the standardised metrics discussed above (win rate, ROI, CLV etc.) for easy comparison.

This allows bettors to get a fuller sense of the tipster’s performance than the bare results may suggest and allows comparison between tipsters.

Fraudulent Tipster Detection

Unfortunately fraudulent tipsters are rife in the industry. Sites like ours are not able to verify the results of all tipsters sadly, as there are literally thousands out there. 

When looking at a tipster though, be wary of tipsters making unrealistic betting claims such as guaranteeing profits or offering high returns without evidence.

You could ask them to submit themselves to verification through a site like ours if you have doubts. 

Typical red flags of fraudulent and scam sites include one-page sites that are effectively just adverts. These sites are often glossy and cleverly marketed, with promises of riches and do not include results spreadsheets. 

They often include stories like “I was in a dead end job and struggled with my betting. Then I found this secret betting system and now I’m making thousands every month!”

If their results haven’t been independently verified elsewhere, this is a classic warning sign of a dodgy tipster. 

Another giveaway is if the results look too fantastical to be believed. Look at the metrics like ROI and win rate discussed above and whether the claimed results look credible. 

A rule of thumb that has served us well over the years is that if it looks too good to be true, it usually us.

 

Conclusion: Data-Driven Tipster Verification

In the world of sports betting finding a reliable tipster can be a winner. But you need to verify sports tipster claims with a data driven approach.

By focusing on metrics like win rate, ROI and long term consistency you can identify tipsters who offer real value.

Avoid fraudulent tipsters by using verified tipster platforms and third party tipster audits like ours.

These days winning in betting is about research, skepticism of unrealistic claims and ensuring you are not throwing your money away on unreliable or scam tipsters.

With the right tools and a critical mindset, you can navigate the tipster landscape and improve your chances of long-term betting success.