Football is undoubtedly one of the most popular sports in the world. Millions of fans tune in every week to watch their favorite teams play and cheer them on.

Making money from betting on football is hard though and very few people manage to do it the long run. 

One strategy that has been used by professional gamblers for years to beat the bookmakers and earn consistent profits however is value betting.

In this ultimate guide, we’ll take you through everything you need to know about football value betting, including the strategies, tips, and tools you need to get started.

What exactly is value betting and why do you need to focus on making sure you are a value bettor? Why might the bookies have got the odds wrong?

And what value betting strategies can you use to improve your footy betting? 

We’ll take a look at all of this below. 

Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just starting out then, this guide will give you the edge you need to succeed in the world of football value betting.

So let’s dive in and start winning!

 

What is Value Betting?

Value betting is a betting strategy that involves identifying bets that have a higher probability of winning than the odds offered by the bookmaker.

In other words, value betting is all about finding bets where the odds are in your favour.

If, for example, the odds of Arsenal to win a match were 2.10, but the actual odds should be 2.00, then you have found yourself a value bet. 

In essence value betting is as simple as that. Trying to find as many of these opportunities as possible – and with as big an advantage over the bookies as possible – is the art of value betting.

This can be a difficult task however, as bookmakers are experts at setting odds that accurately reflect the probability of an event occurring.

They also have vast resources at their disposal including computer systems, software and professional odds compilers. 

With the right approach though it is possible to identify value bets in football.

There are many factors that can influence the odds of a football match, including injuries, form, and team news.

By analysing these factors and comparing them to the odds offered by the bookmaker, it is possible to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than the odds suggest. 

One of the key advantages of value betting is that it allows you to make consistent profits over time.

While individual bets may not always win, over the long term, the strategy will generate positive returns.

This makes value betting a popular strategy among professional gamblers, who rely on consistent, long-term profits to make a living.

 

Why it is Essential to Find Value Football Bets

Ultimately if you are going to be successful in football betting long-term you need to find value. It is the only way to viably make a profit. 

If you are consistently taking bets where the odds are below the true chances of winning, you cannot expect to make a profit in the long run – it would be impossible. 

Even taking “fair value” – if the bookies offered odds that reflected the true chances of winning, you would only break even in the long run. 

Or using the exchanges, where you can often find fair value odds, you still have to pay commission (normally 2%), meaning you would still lose overall if you are not finding value bets. 

What you have to do is identify instances where the odds are wrong – and this can happen for a variety of reasons.  

Let’s take a look at some of those reasons now. 

 

Why the Bookies Might Have Got the Odds Wrong

Bookmakers can get the odds wrong in football for several reasons.

While they employ experts and use sophisticated algorithms to set odds, they are not infallible and can make mistakes.

Here are some factors that can lead to bookmakers getting the odds wrong:

1. Incomplete or inaccurate information: Bookmakers rely on a vast amount of information to set odds, including team news, player form, injuries, and historical data.

However, there may be instances where the bookmakers lack complete or accurate information, leading to misjudgments in their odds.

This can happen for example with obscure leagues in far-off parts of the world where information is difficult to access, or if there is late team news with a key player becoming injured in the warm-up. Being quick to pounce on this information can give you an edge over the bookies. 

2. Bias and public perception: Bookmakers consider public opinion and betting trends when setting odds. If there is a popular team or player, bookmakers may adjust the odds to balance their books and protect themselves from a significant loss.

In such cases, the odds may be overly generous on one side of the book as the bookies are expecting a deluge of money on the other side.

This can happen for example when a big-name team like Liverpool or Manchester Utd are out of form.

Even though they are playing badly, their odds will often be shorter than they should be because the bookies know punters will back them anyway with a flood of money, because they are big-name, popular clubs with huge followings around the world.

Here is an example from the 2022-23 Premier League season: 

Liverpool had started the season poorly, losing three and drawing four of their opening eleven games.

They were up against Leeds, who had a similar record – drawing three and wining two of their opening eleven games.

However, Liverpool were priced as low as 1.22 by the bookies for the match:

That is very similar to the sort of odds you would get if Liverpool had been in excellent form and had started the season strongly.

So the odds took no account of Liverpool’s poor start to the season – and in particular their leaky defence.

The bookies knew they would take a lot of money on Liverpool as they are a big club and are always backed heavily, so they offered only short odds on them, whilst the draw and Leeds were at attractive prices.

As it was, Leeds won the game 2-1, so those opposing Liverpool would have made a huge profit.

In instances such as these there can be value on opposing these big-name sides.   

3. Over-reliance on statistical models: Bookmakers often use statistical models to analyze historical data and predict outcomes.

However, these models may not account for certain intangible factors such as team morale, motivation, or tactical adjustments, which can influence match outcomes.

If the bookmakers overly rely on their models and neglect important qualitative factors, it can lead to inaccurate odds.

Imagine for example a team that has just won the league and has been out celebrating. They may be tired and not have the same motivation for the next game – with the players metaphorically “on the beach” already. 

If the bookies price that team up the same as usual however, it can present value to oppose them. 

4. Human error: Bookmaking is a complex process, and errors can occur.

Human errors, whether in data input, odds calculation, or other aspects of the bookmaking process, can result in incorrect odds being offered. These errors can present opportunities for value betting.

Normally you see these errors in-play rather than pre-match, as sudden unexpected events during a game can present opportunities. 

Beware however of huge errors in the odds – for example odds of 100/1 being quoted instead of 10/1.

The bookies will class this as a “palpable error” and will be entitled to void your bet. 

5. Market factors: The odds offered by bookmakers are influenced by market demand.

If there is a sudden surge in betting on a particular outcome, bookmakers may adjust the odds to balance their liabilities.

Sometimes these surges can be irrational or an over-reaction to a piece of news, creating discrepancies between the odds and the true probabilities of an outcome, allowing sharp bettors to find value.

It’s important to note that while bookmakers can make mistakes, they are generally efficient at setting odds and have a vested interest in maximizing their profits.

However, by carefully analysing the available information and identifying opportunities where the odds deviate from the true probabilities, astute bettors can exploit these discrepancies and find value in the market.

Let’s take a look now at some value football betting strategies. 

 

Value Football Betting Strategies

Okay let’s take a look at some strategies that have proved able to consistently find value and produce a profit over the long term. 

 

1. Betting on the Draw

One of the most effective ways to find value football bets is through backing the draw. 

Partly this is because when thinking about football betting, opting for the draw is not typically the initial choice that springs to most punters’ minds.

It may appear an uncertain choice, as if you are unsure which team will emerge victorious.

However, this perception leads to a smaller amount of money being wagered on the draw compared to the teams’ outright victories, resulting in inflated odds for the draw.

As explained above, the bookies weight their odds to ensure they are not over-exposed to one outcome and have a balanced book. With little money backed on the draw, this can lead to inflated odds for it.

A perceptive individual named JK Diego recognized this and devised an incredibly successful system to take advantage of the additional value often found in draw odds.

It is important to note that blindly backing the draw would inevitably result in losses in the long run. Instead, Diego identified the crucial factors that help identify the specific instances where the draw is a value bet. 

For example, certain leagues and teams demonstrate a higher frequency of draws, and specific match characteristics increase the chances of a draw outcome.

Armed with this valuable information, Mr. Diego constructed a draw betting system that achieved an impressive feat, generating over $100,000 profit overall according to his recommended staking..

We tested this system ourselves extensively for 15 months and witnessed outstanding results, producing a remarkable $10,000 profit with $100 flat stakes. The system has continued to perform admirably since then.

Undoubtedly then JK Diego’s Draw Betting Strategy has proven to be an effective approach to finding value football bets.

 

2. Exploit In-Play Betting Opportunities

Rather than supporting teams in pre-match betting markets, bettors are increasingly attracted to in-play betting.

In-play markets offer valuable opportunities as odds fluctuate during the game. Naturally, these odds changes can be unpredictable and occur rapidly.

This dynamic environment provides ample chances for knowledgeable bettors to capitalize and make a profit.

The majority of bookmakers now provide some form of in-play betting option and of course there are exchanges to use as well which can have excellent liquidity for in-play betting and tend to have better in-play odds. 

One way to find value on in-play bets is to look for instances where the in-play stats suggest a strong likelihood of a goal. 

This could be for example because one team is dominating, creating lots of chances and representing a value opportunity to back. 

Or it could be an open game where both sides are attacking, suggesting backing the overs is a good option. 

One service that has shown to be very effective at capitalising on in-play opportunities is Banker Bets Football Trading Clubs. 

They have a variety of in-play strategies focused on finding value and have proven very adept at doing so, making over 1,000 points profit in total. 

During our live trial they also performed very well, producing consistent profits throughout. 

You can of course also develop your own in-play strategies by following stats such as xG and goal attempts.

The key – as with pre-match bets – is to focus on instances where the stats and play indicate the odds are higher than they should be. 

 

3. Finding Value on Goalscorer Markets

Another good way to find value is to focus on a specific niche, getting to know it inside-out so you can spot any errors the bookies make. 

For example, you might want to concentrate on a particular market like over/unders, corners, or player passes.

Then you can study all the stats, angles and factors that go into making up the odds, making it your specialism. 

A service that has exemplified this approach is Anytime Goalscorer Bets, which concentrates solely on predicting whether players will score at any time during a game.

This particular market offers value opportunities by leveraging knowledge of team news, penalty and set-piece takers, as well as understanding player form.

Becoming a team’s penalty taker can make a huge difference to a player’s chances of scoring a goal for example, but the odds might not change to reflect that. 

Having expertise on such matters has yielded impressive results for Anytime Goalscorer Bets, with our trial showing over £1,200 in profit to date with £20 per point stakes.

The service boasts a return on investment (ROI) of over 10% and a commendable strike rate of 32%.

Additionally, it adds an extra layer of excitement to cheer for a player to score without the need to worry about the overall outcome of the game.

So whether you want to follow the tips of Anytime Goalscorer Bets or develop your own speciality, focusing on a niche and knowing the market inside-out can provide you with value betting opportunities. 

 

Conclusion

In conclusion, football value betting is a strategy that offers the potential for long-term profits by identifying bets with higher probabilities of winning than the odds offered by bookmakers.

It involves finding discrepancies between the true probabilities of outcomes and the odds provided by bookmakers.

While bookmakers are generally efficient at setting odds, there are instances where they can get it wrong due to incomplete information, bias and public perception, over-reliance on statistical models, human error, and market factors.

Value betting is essential for long-term success in football betting, as it is the only way to viably make a profit. Simply taking bets where the odds are below the true chances of winning or fair value will result in losses or break-even results.

By identifying instances where the odds are wrong, astute bettors can exploit these opportunities and find value in the market.

Several value football betting strategies have proven effective in consistently finding value and producing profits. These include betting on the draw, exploiting in-play betting opportunities, and focusing on niche markets like goalscorer markets. 

In summary, by understanding value betting principles, analysing factors that can influence odds, and utilizing effective strategies, bettors can gain an edge and increase their chances of success in the world of football value betting. 

 

This week sees the third major of the season as the golfing world heads to the Los Angeles Country Club for the 123rd US Open.

Recognised as one of the top 20 golf courses in America, the LA Country Club will present a different test to your typical US Open venue – with wide fairways but deep bunkers, treacherous greens and penal barrancas winding their way through the picturesque course. 

And whilst the rough is not as long as you would normally see at a US Open, it is deep Bermuda rough that will test the players’ strength. 

Here is a look at exactly what the players will be faced with this week:

https://twitter.com/bturner23/status/1668770156812845056

So players will want to avoid that for sure and only a true champion who has withstood not just the physical test but also the mental challenge will emerge victorious on Sunday.

If you are looking for some tips for the US Open then we can highly recommend the Golf Insider, who has a phenomenal betting record.

He is coming off a huge 66/1 winner last week at the Canadian Open in the shape of Nick Taylor who won a thrilling playoff against Tommy Fleetwood. 

That put the Golf Insider +145 points in profit (backing to level stakes) since January 1st… and it’s now firmly on course for 2023 to be the most successful year in its 10 year history.

Last week’s winner is just the latest in a long line of big successes that include:

• Marc Warren – WON at 150/1
• Chris Kirk – WON at 125/1
• Rasmus Hojgaard – WON at 200/1
• Andrew Dodt – WON at 150/1
• Corey Conners – WON at 175/1
• Cameron Champ – WON at 150/1
• Hennie Otto – WON at 80/1
• Thomas Pieters – WON at 66/1
• Martin Kaymer – WON at 70/1

Amazing stuff. Plus there have been a whole host of high-priced placed finishes as well, which are too numerous to mention here. 

In total the Golf Insider has made over £20,000 profit at £10 per point stakes since starting up in 2014 at an ROI of 27%, which is sensational tipping. 

He also absolutely crushed it in our live trial as well, making over 400 points profit with winners at prices of 250/1, 150/1, 20/1 and 30/1.

So the Golf Insider has been putting the bookies to the sword time and time again and making his members massive wads of tax-free cash.

He has some huge bets lined up for this week’s US Open:-

• xxxxxxxxxxxx at 8/1 
• xxxxxxxxxxxx at 16/1
• xxxxxxxxxxxx at 28/1 
• xxxxxxxxxxxx at 40/1 
• xxxxxxxxxxxx at 66/1

All each-way and in with great chances. 

To unlock these tips and get your fully protected 100% money-back-guaranteed 30-day trial click here. 

 

 

 

 

If you’re a fan of horse racing and enjoy the thrill of betting, then you know just how important it is to choose the right horse to bet on.

With so many horses to choose from, it can be overwhelming to know where to start. But fear not, as specialists who have tested out hundreds of horse racing tipsters and betting systems, we’ve compiled a list of 5 expert tips to help you choose the right horse to bet on.

From analyzing past performances to checking out the jockey, these tips will give you the edge you need to make informed decisions and increase your chances of a winning bet.

So, whether you’re a seasoned bettor or a newbie to the world of horse racing, these tips are sure to help you make the most of your betting experience.

Now if all the information below seems like a lot to take in, don’t worry. We’ve got a “cheat code” at the end that will save you a great deal of time and effort in finding a winning horse.

Before that though, let’s take a look at some expert tips for picking a winning horse.  

Get ready to saddle up and let’s get started!

 

Understanding the basics of horse racing

Before we dive into the expert tips, it’s important to understand the basics of horse racing. Horse racing is a sport where horses compete against each other in a race. The race can take place on a flat track or over jumps.

Jumps racing is often referred to “National Hunt” racing in the UK and there are different types of jumps races – fences and hurdles. 

There are also different types of horse races in both flat and jumps racing, which can be summarised as follows:-

• Group (or stakes) races: the highest level of races in horse racing. They are divided into three categories: 1-3. Group 1 races are the most prestigious, featuring the highest-quality horses competing at the elite level for the biggest prize money. Examples of Group 1 races include the Kentucky Derby, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and the Melbourne Cup.
• Listed Races: the level just below Group races in terms of prestige. They are named as “listed” because the race conditions and entry requirements are listed by the governing racing authority.
• Handicap races: a type of horse race where the weight carried by each horse is adjusted to equalize their chances of winning. The objective is to create a more level playing field by assigning weights based on the horse’s ability or past performance.
• Claiming races: a type of race where horses are available for purchase by anyone who meets the price.
• Allowance races: horses carry a certain weight and can only compete against other horses carrying a similar weight.

 

Resources to Help You Pick a Winning Horse

To help you pick a winning horse it is worth having access to a racing guide or racecard for the day’s races. 

Good resources for racecards include The Racing Post, At The Races or geegeez.co.uk for racecards that should give you all the information you need to pick a winner. 

Within the racecards you can see info like the horse’s form, jockey & trainer stats and a host of other information.

 

Factors to consider when choosing a horse

When it comes to choosing a horse to bet on, there are several factors to consider.

These include:

• Form: typically considered the most important factor in horse racing because it provides valuable information about a horse’s recent performances, which can help assess its ability, consistency, and potential for future races.
• Distance: races are generally run at distances ranging from 5 furlongs (a sprint) up to around 3 miles for the longest jumps races. Certain horses will be suited by the distance of today’s race whilst others won’t. You can check the horses’ record over today’s distance and see how they’ve fared. 
• Ground (aka “the going”): ground can vary from heavy (very wet and boggy) to firm. Analyzing the ground conditions and assessing a horse’s past performances on similar surfaces can provide valuable insights into its suitability for an upcoming race.
• Jockey’s and trainer’s records: Jockeys and trainers can have a strong record at a particular track, demonstrating familiarity and understanding of the nuances of that specific track.
• The horse’s age and experience: some horses have a habit of doing well in certain races year after year, whilst others may be relatively inexperienced. 

 

A Lot to Take In, But Don’t Be Overwhelmed! 

If you are new to horse racing, all this information may seem like a lot to take in and a bit overwhelming, but don’t worry! You don’t need to understand and analyse of all of this information in order to pick a winning horse.

There are plenty of simple strategies that can prove effective and don’t require you to spend weeks or months studying the intricacies of horse racing to find a winner. You can focus in on just one aspect of a race to pick your horse rather than trying to weigh up a whole host of different factors. 

Or, as we mentioned at the start, you can skip to the end for our special “cheat code.”

Anyway, before that let’s take a look at our 5 expert tips for picking a winning horse. 

 

Expert tip #1: Look at the horse’s past performance

The horse’s past performance is a key factor to consider when choosing a horse to bet on. It’s important to look at the horse’s recent form, including their last few races.

Form guides will typically include numbers written like this: 313-21, although there might be some variance in the layout depending on the publication. 

Here is an example of a horse called Flagman, from the Racing Post racecard:

Flagman’s form figures are below the number 11 on the left hand side. Basically, the numbers denote the horse’s results in its most recent races.

So the number on the right (number 1 in this case) signifies that the horse came first in its most recent race. The number 9 denotes that the horse came ninth in the race before that, the number 6 that it came sixth in the race before and so on. The numbers before the dash denote performances from last year.

Some people like to pick a horse that has very good form figures next to its name, with lots of 1s and 2s for example. Whilst this can hold a certain appeal, it is not usually the best way to find value as the odds will probably reflect that strong form and be quite short. 

If your sole aim is to pick a winner however, then this could be the simplest way of finding one! If the horse has impressive recent form and is at short odds – likely the favourite – then it will give you a decent chance of finding a winner. 

However, if you want to try and find some value and be a bit smarter than those punters just picking the obvious “form horses,” you could also consider the horse’s record at the track and distance of the race. A horse that has performed well in similar conditions to today is more likely to perform well in the current race.

A clue to look for on your racecard is for the letters “C” or “D”, or both together (“CD”) under a horse’s name.

The letter “C” means the horse has won on this course before, which is a good sign. 

Below is a horse called Joke Dancer, which has a “C” (encircled in grey next to “2 tips”). This means it has won at this course before. 

Different tracks can have their own characteristics and some horses always seem to perform well at the same tracks over and over again, whilst struggling at others. You may have heard the phrase “horses for courses,” well it’s amazing how often it proves to be the case! 

The letter “D” denotes that the horse has won at this distance before, which again is a good sign – showing it is capable of passing today’s test in terms of the length of the race. 

Here is an example, a horse called Luckofthedraw which has a “D” under its name, indicating that it has won at this distance before.

If you see the letters “CD” together it means the horse has won at the same course and distance as today’s race, which is a very good sign. 

The horse Our Laura B has the letters “CD” below her name, indicating she is a course and distance winner:

Note that in the case of Our Laura B the “C” and “D” are together, denoting she won at this course and distance in the same race. 

If however, the “C” and “D” are separated as per the example of Ribeye below, it means the horse has won at this course before and at this distance, but it wasn’t in the same race.

If a horse has been out of form recently but has been running at tracks and distances that don’t suit it, whilst today it is returning to a course and length of race that do suit it, that horse could be a value pick and worth following. 

Certainly it is less obvious than just picking the favourite or horse with the best recent form and it is an approach that can pay dividends. As we say, the age-old phrase “horses for courses” still rings true today, for good reason!  

 

Get Free Horse Racing Tips from Expert Tipsters here

 

Expert tip #2: Assess the jockey’s and trainer’s record

The jockey is a key factor in a horse’s performance. A good jockey can make all the difference in a race. When choosing a horse to bet on, it’s important to assess the jockey’s record. Look at their recent form, including their win percentage and their record at the track.

Here is the record of jockey Hollie Doyle, which you can see at a glance by clicking on her name on the Racing Post racecard:

From this you can see her record with different ages of horse and on different types of surface (turf and all-weather). 

In the column on the far right, under “£1 stake” you can see the returns if you had bet £1 on every horse Hollie Doyle has ridden under those particular conditions. 

It is important to bear in mind that whilst her numbers here don’t look good, the vast majority of jockeys will have a negative number as the results are taken at the industry starting price (SP), which isn’t very generous. Those taking early odds or the exchange odds are likely to have done considerably better. 

In any event, beyond the raw figures you can delve further into the jockey’s record to look at their recent form, which horses they have a particularly good (or bad) record on and more detailed stats.

It’s important to consider the jockey’s relationship with the horse. Some jockeys have a better rapport with certain horses, which can lead to better performances. Look for jockeys who have ridden the horse before and have had success with them.

Also worth considering is whether a jockey has a good record at the track and has won races in similar conditions. Just as it is a case of “horses for courses,” it can be “jockeys for courses” too!

Another aspect to consider is not just the jockey, but the jockey and trainer combination together.

Jockeys and trainers who have a strong record at a particular track often demonstrate familiarity and understanding of the nuances of that specific track.

They may have insights into the track conditions, layout, and the characteristics that can affect a horse’s performance. This knowledge can be advantageous when strategizing race tactics or making training decisions.

Here are a few examples of successful jockey/trainer partnerships in horse racing:

1. Frankie Dettori and John Gosden: Frankie Dettori, a renowned jockey, has enjoyed great success riding for trainer John Gosden. Together, they have won numerous prestigious races, including the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, and the Breeders’ Cup. Their partnership has been known for their ability to strategize and execute race tactics effectively.
2. Ryan Moore and Aidan O’Brien: Ryan Moore has formed a successful partnership with Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien. Moore has ridden for O’Brien’s powerful Ballydoyle stable and has achieved remarkable success in major races worldwide. Their partnership has resulted in victories in races like the Epsom Derby, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, and the Breeders’ Cup Turf.
3. Javier Castellano and Chad Brown: Jockey Javier Castellano and trainer Chad Brown have established a highly successful partnership in American horse racing. Castellano has been the go-to jockey for many of Brown’s top horses, and together they have achieved numerous victories in prestigious races such as the Breeders’ Cup Turf, the Arlington Million, and the Travers Stakes.
4. William Buick and Charlie Appleby: Jockey William Buick has formed a successful alliance with trainer Charlie Appleby, primarily associated with Godolphin Racing. Their partnership has led to victories in significant races like the Epsom Derby, the Dubai World Cup, and multiple Group 1 races worldwide.

These are just a few examples of successful jockey/trainer partnerships, and there are many other notable partnerships in horse racing history. Successful collaborations between jockeys and trainers often rely on effective communication, understanding each other’s strengths and preferences, and building trust to make informed decisions during races.

Whilst you may not have any of the famous names above at the racecourse today, your race guide should have jockey and trainer statistics for the course. Have a look for any that stand out, for example those that have a high winning percentage at the track and/or distance. 

In particular, look out for examples where the jockey and trainer combination together has a good winning percentage. It’s the combination that can really make the difference and deliver the winning result we are looking for. 

 

Expert tip #3: Analyze the track condition

The track condition is an important factor to consider when selecting a horse to bet on. The track can be fast, slow, or somewhere in between. Some horses perform better on fast tracks, while others perform better on slower tracks.

Analyzing a horse’s record in different ground conditions involves examining its past performances on various track surfaces to identify patterns and preferences. Here’s a step-by-step approach to analyzing a horse’s record in different ground conditions:

1. Gather the horse’s race history: Collect the race history of the horse, including its past performances on different ground conditions. This information is usually available in race programs, online databases, or racing publications such as those listed above.
2. Identify the ground conditions: Note the ground conditions listed for each race in the horse’s record. Pay attention to keywords such as “firm,” “good,” “yielding,” “soft,” or “heavy,” which describe the state of the track surface.
3. Evaluate performance in different conditions: Assess the horse’s performance in various ground conditions by examining its finishing positions, margins of victory or defeat, and the level of competition faced in each race. Look for any consistent patterns or notable performances.
4. Consider win percentage: Calculate the horse’s win percentage on different ground conditions. A higher win percentage on a particular ground condition may indicate a preference or better performance on that surface.
5. Assess performance relative to competition: Compare the horse’s performance on different ground conditions to the quality of competition it faced. If the horse consistently performs well on a specific ground condition against strong competition, it suggests a higher level of adaptability and competitiveness.
6. Analyze running style: Consider how the horse’s running style aligns with different ground conditions. Some horses may have a running style that suits certain ground surfaces better than others. For example, horses with a strong closing kick may excel on a yielding or soft surface that allows them to maintain their late speed.
7. Consider pedigree and breeding: Take into account the horse’s pedigree and breeding. Certain bloodlines are known to produce horses that perform well on specific ground conditions. If the horse’s lineage has a history of success on a particular surface, it may indicate a genetic predisposition to perform well in those conditions.
8. Assess recent form: Give more weight to the horse’s recent performances on different ground conditions as they provide a more accurate reflection of its current abilities and preferences.

By analyzing a horse’s record in different ground conditions, you can identify any patterns, preferences, or strengths it may have on specific track surfaces. This information can be valuable when assessing its prospects for upcoming races, especially when considering the ground conditions expected for the race day.

Of course, you may not have time to analyze the horse’s ground record in such detail. Don’t worry though, often the notes that accompany each horse in your race guide should tell you if the horse does well in today’s conditions. 

Here is an example for a horse called Thundering that is running at York:

The horse’s performance in its last race was poor, finishing fifth out of six horses in the race. However, the comments here suggest that the soft ground was not ideal, whereas today’s ground is due to be good. 

Looking at Thundering’s race record, we can see that it has performed well on firmer ground, with second places on good (Gd) and good-to-firm (GF) ground. 

It also had a win and a second on the all-weather track at Newcastle (St/Slw) which tends to be firmer than turf. 

The horse also finished second on soft ground back in April 2022, suggesting it can act on different types of ground. However, the results above suggest it is perhaps best suited by firmer ground conditions. 

You may come across horses with very distinct records of only doing well on certain types of ground. Those can be good horses to follow, particularly when the conditions are extreme – either very soft or very firm. 

 

Expert tip #4: Consider the horse’s age and experience

A horse’s age and experience are important factors to consider when choosing a horse to bet on. Younger horses may have more potential, but they may lack the experience and maturity to perform well in high-pressure situations. Older horses may have more experience, but their age may affect their performance.

Statistically, older horses tend to have an advantage over younger horses in terms of racing performance and maturity. 

This is down to their:

1. Physical Development: As horses age, they typically undergo physical development and reach their peak athletic abilities. Their bodies become stronger, more robust, and better suited to handle the physical demands of racing. 
2. Experience and Maturity: Older horses have had more time to gain experience and develop racing skills. They have been exposed to various race scenarios, track conditions, and competition levels, allowing them to learn and adapt. 
3. Mental Preparedness: As horses age, they often exhibit increased mental maturity and focus. They become more accustomed to the racing environment, including the sights, sounds, and pressures associated with competition. 
4. Development of Racing Form: Older horses tend to have a more established racing form, with a track record that provides a better indication of their abilities and potential.
5. Class Advancement: Older horses often compete in higher-level races against stronger and more seasoned competition. This exposure to challenging races can improve their skills, competitiveness, and overall racing performance. 

The advantage of older horses over younger ones has been demonstrated in a range of different ways, including in:

1. Stakes/Group Races: In stakes or group races, which are typically the highest level of competition, older horses often have a statistical advantage over younger ones. This is evident in races such as the Triple Crown races (Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes), where three-year-old horses compete against older horses. Historically, older horses have a higher winning percentage in these races.
2. Win Percentages: If you examine win percentages across various age groups, you may find that older horses tend to have higher win percentages compared to younger horses. However, it’s important to consider factors such as class levels, track conditions, distances, and the specific competition faced by each age group.
3. Handicap Races: In handicap races, which are designed to equalize competition by assigning weights based on horse ability, older horses are often assigned higher weights compared to younger ones. This weight assignment recognizes the maturity and development advantage that older horses possess.
4. Longevity: Older horses have typically had more racing experience due to their longer careers. This additional racing experience can contribute to better overall statistics and a more established racing record.

Now of course all of this doesn’t mean you should just go and back old horses blindly! Age is just one factor among many and probably not the most important in itself. 

However, it is often overlooked and most punters are not aware of the disparity in age demonstrated by the stats above. So if other factors are lining up in an older horse’s favor, or you just feel a more experienced horse is being unfairly disregarded (what we might call “ageism”), it could represent value. 

There are a number of famous horses who achieved tremendous success at an older age.

Wise Dan, for example, achieved significant success as an older horse, winning multiple Grade 1 races. At the age of six, he won the Breeders’ Cup Mile in 2012 and repeated the victory the following year at age seven!

Winx, an Australian mare, achieved phenomenal success as an older horse in the 2010s. She won an unprecedented four consecutive Cox Plate races, a prestigious Group 1 race in Australia, from 2015 to 2018. Winx’s unbeaten streak extended to 33 races and she is considered one of the greatest racehorses in Australian history.

At the same time, John Henry had enormous success as an older horse, winning several prestigious races in the 1980s. At the age of nine, he won the Arlington Million, a Grade 1 turf race, for the second time in 1984. He also won the Santa Anita Handicap twice, at ages eight and nine.

So write off an older horse at your peril. As we say, going against the crowd when a high quality horse is being written off as “over the hill” can really pay dividends. 

 

Get Free Horse Racing Tips from Expert Tipsters here

 

Expert tip #5: Evaluate the horse’s physical attributes

The horse’s physical attributes are an important factor to consider when choosing a horse to bet on. Look at the horse’s build, weight, and overall health. A horse that is well-built and in good health is more likely to perform well in a race.

This is the sort of thing you can evaluate for yourself if you are attending the races in person. One of the best places to get a good view of the horses is in the parade ring, where they are displayed a few minutes before the race is due to start. 

Here are some key physical attributes to evaluate when assessing a horse’s betting potential:

1. Conformation: Assess the horse’s overall conformation, which refers to the physical structure and proportions of its body. Look for balanced proportions, a strong and well-muscled build, and correct alignment of legs. A horse with good conformation is generally considered to have a better chance of soundness and efficient movement, which can positively impact its racing performance.
2. Coat and Condition: Observe the horse’s coat and overall condition. A healthy, glossy coat, with well-defined muscles and a generally fit appearance, indicates a horse in good physical condition. A horse that looks fit and well-maintained is more likely to perform at its best.
3. Musculature: Assess the development and tone of the horse’s muscles. Well-developed and defined muscles, particularly in the shoulder, hindquarters, and gaskin areas, can indicate strength and power. Look for a muscular horse without excessive fat or signs of poor conditioning.
4. Legs and Hooves: Examine the horse’s legs and hooves for any signs of soundness and structural integrity. Check for straightness in the legs when viewed from different angles, the presence of any blemishes or swellings, and the quality of the hooves. Soundness and well-maintained hooves are essential for a horse’s performance and ability to handle different track conditions.
5. Walk and Movement: Observe the horse’s walk and movement, both at the stable and during pre-race warm-ups. Look for a fluid and efficient stride with good reach and extension. A horse that moves with confidence, balance, and coordination is more likely to be agile and perform well on the racetrack.

It’s important to note that evaluating physical attributes alone does not guarantee success. It should be used in combination with one or more of the other factors described above.

If you are attending the races in person though, having a look at the horses’ physical attributes and how well they look could give you an edge over other punters and is an underappreciated angle to consider. 

 

Common mistakes to avoid when choosing a horse

When it comes to choosing a horse to bet on, there are several common mistakes to avoid. One of the biggest mistakes is betting on a horse based on their name or the color of their jockey’s silks. Another mistake is betting on a horse without doing your research. It’s important to take the time to analyze the factors listed above before making a decision.

It’s also important to avoid betting on too many horses. Focusing on a few horses that meet your criteria is a better strategy than betting on every horse in the race.

 

***CHEAT CODE – If You Want a Quicker Way to Find a Winner***

If all of this seems like a bit much and you want a quicker way to find a winner, there is a simpler option. 

You could just follow the advice of a tipster! 

Yes these horse racing experts follow racing very closely and analyse all the information listed above – and more – in choosing their tips. 

Now not all tipsters are worth following of course – most are actually quite bad and make a loss overall. However, here at Honest Betting Reviews we have tested hundreds of tipsters in search of the best ones. 

Here are three horse racing tipsters we would recommend:-

1. The Bookies Enemy – over £22,000 profit at £25 per point and a 15% ROI.
2. Hanbury Racing – over 1300 points profit with a 25% ROI.
3. Loves Racing – over 900 points profit with a number of winners over 50/1.

Following one of these tipsters could not only save you a lot of time and effort but could also direct you to finding some nice winners. Certainly their long-term records are among the best in the business.

 

Conclusion

Choosing the right horse to bet on in horse racing can be a daunting task, but by following these expert tips, you can increase your chances of a winning bet.

You can choose to analyze the horse’s past performance, assess the jockey’s record, analyze the track condition, consider the horse’s age and experience, and evaluate the horse’s physical attributes – or use a combination of these factors. If all else fails, you can try a top horse racing tipster to do the hard work for you! 

By avoiding common mistakes and focusing on a few horses that meet your criteria, you can make informed decisions and enjoy a successful betting experience. Good luck and happy betting!

 

 

 

 

If you’re a fan of football betting, you’re probably always on the lookout for winning strategies that can help you maximize your returns. And if you’re looking for a smart, low-risk approach that can help you avoid some of the pitfalls of traditional betting, then Draw No Bet might just be the way to go.

This strategy offers a unique twist on traditional betting, giving you the chance to hedge your bets across different outcomes. Whether you’re a seasoned gambler or just starting out, Draw No Bet can help you minimize your risks while still giving you the chance to land some nice winners.

In this article, we’ll dive into the key benefits of this smart betting strategy, and explore how you can start using it to improve your footy betting game. So if you’re ready to take your betting skills to the next level, read on to discover the meaning of Draw No Bet and why it might just be the smartest betting strategy you can use.

 

What does “Draw No Bet” mean?

First up let’s have a look at the meaning of Draw No Bet. 

Draw No Bet (often shortened to “DNB”) means that if the team you have bet on draw the game, then you will get your money back. If they win the match, you will win your bet.

Here is the bet explained in table form:

 

Team Wins Match	Team Draws Match	Team Loses Match
Win bet	Money back (break even)	Lose bet

 

The “draw no bet” option aligns with its name, as it results in a void bet if the match ends in a draw. In this scenario, your stake is refunded, allowing you to proceed to the next match.

This type of bet can be viewed as a partial hedge, wherein you believe a team is likely to win the game but may also have a tendency to draw occasionally, prompting you to safeguard against that outcome.

It’s important to note that the odds for “draw no bet” will be notably lower than if you had solely wagered on a team to win. However, this reduction in odds reflects the cost of covering both possibilities and mitigating potential losses.

 

Draw No Bet Example

Barcelona are playing Real Madrid in the Super Cup. It’s always a close game between the two big rivals, but this time it’s Real who have been in better form recently and are therefore the favourites.

Real Madrid’s odds to win the game are 2.04 (or slightly above evens in fractional odds).

But if you back them at Draw No Bet, their odds are 1.51

Here is what would happen if you bet £100 on Real Madrid “Draw No Bet” at odds of 1.51.

• Real Madrid win: +51
• Real Madrid draw: £0 (money back)
• Real Madrid lose: -£100

 

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Getting the Best Odds on Draw No Bet

We highly recommend using betting exchanges to place your “draw no bet” selections as they typically offer the best odds. It’s usually beneficial to consult an odds comparison site like Oddschecker as well, just to ensure you’re not missing out on better odds at traditional bookmakers. This is especially relevant for matches in lesser-known leagues or cup games where liquidity on the exchanges might be limited.

In general, and especially for high-profile matches, the exchanges tend to provide the most competitive odds. The Betfair exchange is usually the most liquid and covers a wide range of matches. However, Smarkets is gaining ground in terms of liquidity and should be checked when placing your bets, particularly for popular leagues.

 

Alternatives

There are alternatives to draw no bet which have a similar effect but mean constructing the bet differently.

1. Manually place Draw No Bet using the match odds

If your bookmaker does not offer a specific “draw no bet” option or if you want to explore better value on the exchanges, you can manually create a draw no bet wager using the standard match odds.

To do this, you divide your stake between the win and the draw in such a way that you get your money back if the match ends in a draw. Here’s an example using the Barcelona vs. Real Madrid match:

1. The draw is priced at 3.9.
2. Take your stake (let’s use £100 as an example).
3. Divide your stake by the odds of the draw (3.9).
4. This gives you £25.64.
5. Place £25.64 on the draw.
6. Place the remaining stake (£74.36) on Real Madrid to win.
7. By following these steps, you have manually created a “draw no bet” selection.

Please note that the amounts used in this example are just for illustrative purposes, and you can adjust them based on your desired stake and odds.

 

 

2.  Use the Asian Handicap

Or alternatively you can use the Asian Handicap option of 0 – e.g. back “Real Madrid 0” in the Asian Handicap market at 1.48. This achieves the same thing as the “draw no bet”.

Historical data and success rates of DNB

Historical data shows that DNB can be a successful betting strategy, particularly in sports where draws are a common occurrence. For example, in football the draw is a common result, with around 25% of matches ending in a draw.

This means that if you’re betting on soccer using a traditional win/lose betting strategy, you’re exposing yourself to greater risk, as you’re effectively betting against a 25% chance of a draw.

By using DNB, you can reduce this risk and increase your chances of winning. According to some studies, using DNB can increase your success rate by up to 30%, making it a higher win-rate strategy. As mentioned earlier however, the odds of DNB are significantly lower than betting on win-only, so you have to be prepared to accept smaller wins. 

Check out our over 1.5 goals strategy here.

Draw No Bet Strategy

A potential strategy for betting on the draw no bet market is to identify teams that frequently draw matches but have a strong record of avoiding losses. This approach provides some insurance compared to simply backing a team to win, as a draw would result in a void bet rather than a loss.

Let’s take the example of Union Berlin in the 2020/21 season, as observed on the SoccerStats website. Union Berlin was a solid team that experienced relatively few defeats throughout the season. However, they had a tendency to draw a significant number of matches:

Indeed, looking at Union Berlin’s performance in the 2020/21 season, they exhibited a strong ability to avoid losses, losing only 8 games throughout the campaign. However, they had a notable tendency to draw matches, accumulating 14 draws in total. If you had been consistently backing them to win, you would have faced frustration due to the high number of drawn matches.

By employing the draw no bet strategy, you would have mitigated this frustration, as your stake would have been refunded in the event of a draw on 14 occasions. This approach would have been particularly beneficial when Union Berlin played at home, as they only suffered one loss but recorded 8 draws.

Another example is Newcastle United in the 2022/23 Premier League Season. It was a very successful season for the Magpies and they proved a tough team to beat, with manager Eddie Howe having them well-organised at the back whilst also providing a threat going forward.

As you can see from their stats, they only lost five games out of 36, but drew quite a large number, with 12 draws. 

Newcastle may have been good value in particular for a DNB wager when playing away from home, as they only lost 3 games away from St James’s Park but drew 7, almost as many as they won.

They had some good away victories at the likes of Tottenham, Fulham, Brentford and West Ham, whilst managing creditable draws away at the likes of Arsenal and Manchester Utd.

So with decent odds normally being available for a Newcastle DNB bet in those away fixtures, they would have presented good value on this market over the 22/23 season.

Identifying teams with a similar pattern of consistently drawing matches can present lucrative opportunities in the draw no bet market. It allows you to cover the possibility of a draw while still having the potential for a win. Conduct thorough analysis and research to find teams that fit this profile, as they can be ideal candidates for draw no bet opportunities.

 

How to Find Teams Suitable for Draw No Bet

Identifying teams that are suitable for a draw no bet strategy requires thorough analysis and consideration of various factors. While specific teams’ performance can vary from season to season, here are some general indicators to look for when considering the draw no bet strategy:

1. Defensive-minded teams: Teams known for their strong defensive capabilities and disciplined playing style tend to have a higher likelihood of drawing matches. These teams prioritize avoiding losses and often have solid defensive structures that make it challenging for opponents to score.
2. Inconsistent goal-scoring teams: Teams that struggle to consistently score goals but have a resilient defense can be prime candidates for the draw no bet strategy. These teams may rely on tight defensive play and aim to grind out results, leading to a higher probability of drawn matches.
3. Mid-table teams: Teams that consistently find themselves in mid-table positions often face opponents of similar strength. These matchups can result in closely contested games with a higher potential for draws.
4. Teams with low-scoring matches: Assess teams that are involved in matches with relatively low-scoring averages. Such teams tend to have fewer goals scored overall, increasing the likelihood of drawn matches.

Remember to analyze recent form, home and away records, head-to-head statistics, playing style, injuries, and other relevant factors when considering teams for a draw no bet strategy. It is important to conduct detailed research and stay updated on team news to make informed decisions.

 

Should you Use Draw No Bet or Stick to the Match Odds (win betting)?

The choice between draw no bet (DNB) and win betting depends on your risk tolerance, betting objectives, and the specific circumstances of the match. Here are some considerations for each option:

Draw No Bet (DNB):

• Advantage: DNB provides a form of insurance against a draw. If the match ends in a draw, your stake is refunded, minimizing potential losses.
• Suitable for: DNB is suitable when you believe a team is likely to win but want protection in case of a draw. It can be useful when betting on underdogs or in matches where the teams are closely matched.
• Risk: The odds for DNB selections are typically lower than for win betting, as you are eliminating the possibility of a draw. This means potentially lower potential returns compared to win betting.

Win Betting:

• Advantage: Win betting offers higher odds and potential returns, especially when backing underdogs or in situations where a team has a significant advantage over their opponent.
• Suitable for: Win betting is suitable when you are confident in a team’s ability to win outright and are willing to accept the risk of losing if the match ends in a draw.
• Risk: Betting on a team to win introduces the risk of a draw, which results in a loss. The higher odds can offer greater rewards but also increase the likelihood of losing your stake.

Ultimately, the choice between DNB and win betting depends on your personal preferences, risk appetite, and the specific circumstances of the match.

It can be beneficial to consider factors such as team form, head-to-head records, playing styles, and the importance of the match before making a decision. It may also be worth assessing the odds and potential value available for each option.

 

Conclusion

Draw no bet provides a safer option of betting on football matches where you think there is a reasonable chance of a draw. 

When betting on DNB, it can pay to find teams who are tough to break down and don’t lose many matches. Check teams records and look for those like Union Berlin and Newcastle analyzed above. With careful research and used in the correct way, Draw No Bet can be a powerful betting strategy to deploy. 

Check out our number one recommended football betting system here.