Online casinos offer a world of excitement and the potential for big wins, but like all gambling services, they also come with associated risks.

The latter can only be addressed through a strategic approach to experiencing and playing a casino game in a virtual environment.

So, with that in mind, let’s jump right in and look at the blueprint for success that all battlers should follow when seeking to maximize their online casino experience.

Understand the Landscape

Before we look at the strategies that can enable you to prosper, let’s take a look at the landscape. How online casinos operate is similar to that of their brick-and-mortar counterparts, except when you play online, you can do just that from anywhere.

Games are also comparable with the venues of the virtual world, playing host to everything from a multitude of slots and video poker games to the bright lights of the casino classics like blackjack, craps, and roulette.

Each of these games comes with its own set of rules and its own set of odds, so having a basic understanding of each type of game is a necessary box to tick before immersing yourself in the unknown.

Choose a Reputable Online Casino

Once you’re up to speed with the basics of the games, finding the right casino to experience and play in is where it all starts for the would-be battler.

Stick with a reputable online casino. Each site will offer you a valid license, fantastic reviews from fellow customers, and a history of fair play and prompt payouts. Security should also be watertight.

Ensure that the casino you consider transacting with is one that encrypts any personal and financial information it takes from its users.

Finally, compare the bonuses and rewards that are available to you. Because you’re playing online, a multitude of great bonuses and rewards are on offer, which can significantly boost the size of your playing budget as all of these additional extras mean you’re instantly switching the ratio of cash that you’re putting into your account and the casino’s chips that are entering your bankroll in your favor.

Strategic Betting

Once you’ve got your base platform to play from, deploying the strategies to help you succeed is your next priority.

Bankroll Management

The first of these is deploying the correct bankroll management strategy. This starts with the simple theory of how much money you can afford to lose, which you have to factor in before you start to play at any online casino site.

You’ve then got to stick to that figure, and that amount of money has to be one that you’re not fearful of losing, as that is one of the next steps for anyone looking to manage their bankroll.

Once you’ve played through a significant online casino like this and you’ve set down a figure that you’re happy to have as your bankroll, ensure that you also set daily, weekly, or monthly deposit limits when you play any more in the future.

If you don’t, you run the very real risk of the thrill of online gaming and betting quickly becoming over-excited and seeing you get a far harder time on your hands. You’re not going to be able to win back the money that you lose that you can’t afford to lose back, so it seems rather simple when it’s spelled out in this manner.

Just a little focus on this aspect of the game, which isn’t a game, can save you a lot of heartache.

Odds and House Edge

Every game in an online casino comes with a house edge—the casino’s statistical advantage in the long run. Understand the odds and how the house edge works for the games you decide to play. Opt for games that offer a lower house edge, such as blackjack or baccarat, to increase your chances of winning.

Use Bonuses to Your Advantage

Online casinos offer a range of bonuses, including welcome bonuses, free spins, and loyalty rewards. Get to know the terms and conditions of these bonuses and how to use them to your advantage.

Bonuses can often mean the difference between winning and losing and make your play more beneficial, so be sure to take advantage of them. Just make sure that wagering requirements are reasonable.

Advanced Strategies

When you have mastered the basics, there are more advanced strategies that can further help in enhancing your online casino success.

Game Specific Strategies

Each online casino game has its own set of strategies. For instance, understanding basic strategy can significantly lower the house edge in blackjack. For poker, knowing the importance of position and how to read your opponents can make winning more of a reality. Spend time learning game-specific strategies to help you do even better.

Betting Systems

Many bettors use betting systems such as the Martingale or Fibonacci. While no betting system can guarantee a profit, as long as you understand and use them judiciously, these may help you manage your playing funds better—just remember there isn’t a betting system in the world that will overcome the house edge in the long run.

Know When to Call It a Day

Another strategy that succeeds in online betting is knowing when to stop. As well as a loss limit, have a win limit. It can be hard to leave the table when you are or think you are, on a winning streak, but stopping at a prearranged time can save you from losing what you’ve already won.

Psychological Aspects of Betting

Online casinos are not just about strategies or the mathematical aspect of things. It is also about having the right mental attitude, so you must build this before you start gaming.

Emotional Control

Keeping control of your emotions is vital. Do not chase losses or bet out of frustration, as this can lead to reckless decisions and more losses. Keep your cool, stay focused, and stick to your strategies and limits.

Decision Making Under Pressure

Gaming in online casinos can throw up situations where rapid decision-making is necessary. With your gambling experience, that’s where familiarity and practice are very important. The more you play, the better you get at making wise decisions under pressure, which can further enhance your game and lead to a more enjoyable gaming experience overall.

The Ethical Dimension

While you chase success in the worldwide world of online casinos, do not ever disregard the fact that it is also important to gamble responsibly. Understand the risks associated with online gambling – which can get out of hand very quickly if not properly monitored.

Keep an eye out for the warning signs of problem gambling and use responsible gambling tools and resources offered at Internet casinos. Many online companies even provide self-exclusion options (to varying degrees) and links to professional help if indeed it is needed.

Conclusion

Succeeding in online casinos is about blending both skill and luck. Use your knowledge, strategy, and discipline to increase your chances and balance the risk of the game.

Utilise bankroll management to spread risk over several games. Bet where you can leverage your bonuses and use game-specific strategies for those that are best for you. Finally, always ensure that you gamble responsibly and, as we always say – ‘enjoy the journey.’

With the right approach, the thrilling world of online casinos can be both enjoyable and potentially profitable.

 

 

 

Image credit: Tembela Bohle via Pexels

Football, sometimes known as the “beautiful game,” has captivated the hearts of millions worldwide. For a lot of fans, there’s nothing quite like the rush that comes with watching a football game, especially when they can anticipate the outcome.

The way football fans approach generating predictions about matches has evolved considerably in recent years due to statistical analysis. The input of data has led to an improvement in match prediction skills in football.

Football fans and analysts have access to a diverse set of statistical tools, such as player-specific statistics, historical data, and team performance metrics.

Statistics play an extremely important role in football match prediction. What was formerly regarded to be unexpected now has a scientific basis. As the sport becomes more intricate and competitive, there is a greater need for an effective prediction tool.

When it comes to forecasting, statisticians and analysts comb through a variety of variables to identify patterns and trends. In this essay, we will look at the most useful kind of statistics for predicting football games. These statistics are all vital in guiding players and viewers in making sound decisions.

 

Performance Metrics and Player Form Analysis 

Image Credit: 12019 via Pixabay

Individual player statistics are equally important as team performance data, providing a thorough picture of a team’s potential. The following key characteristics have a significant impact on match predictions: goals, assists, and recent form.

Goal scorers, sometimes known as “sharpshooters,” play a crucial role on any football team. Counting the number of goals a player has scored might indicate their ability to find the back of the net.

An intelligent projection takes into account a team’s current top scorers since they have a greater chance of impacting the outcome of the game. Conversely, assists demonstrate a player’s ability to set up teammates for scoring opportunities. A player with a high assist rate, as one of the team’s major playmakers, may help the offense.

There is also the crucial issue of player form. Positive effects on the game are more likely to come from players who have performed well in past competitions.

A player on a goal drought or a run of poor performances, on the other hand, may make it more difficult for their team to win. For more regular football tips, go to this site. Tips.gg can demonstrate how these parameters contribute in the formulation of accurate football predictions. This is where football fans and wagerers can get the most pro-player data and form guides, allowing them to make smarter decisions while betting on football games.

 

Analysis of Team Performance Metrics and Key Performance Indicators

Image Credit: KelvinStuttard via Pixabay

Evaluating team performance measurements is an important aspect of football betting predictions. These statistics cover several key indicators, such as possession percentages, goals scored, and goals allowed.

Despite their fairly basic design, they give an accurate representation of a team’s performance in recent major games.

The amount of goals scored and allowed is an important statistic. A team’s attacking strength may be determined by tallying the goals scored in a game and its defensive strength by calculating the goals conceded.

These metrics allow fans and specialists to evaluate a team’s overall performance, tactical strengths, and flaws. A team with a high scoring output but a high goal-allowed ratio may play a high-scoring, exciting style while also having a fragile defence. In contrast, a team that scores fewer goals but has a good defence might be more conservative.

Consider the possession percentages to have a better understanding of how a team manages its game. Lower possession teams may choose a counterattacking strategy, but greater possession teams usually dominate play and create more scoring opportunities.

These insights show the team’s tactical approach and playing style, which may be quite beneficial in predicting how a match will play out.

 

Head-to-Head Statistics Analysis and Historical Records 

When it comes to football predictions, head-to-head statistics and historical data are commonly recognized as the cornerstone of sound analysis. These metrics provide valuable insights into both teams’ past and relative performance.

Head-to-head statistics are based on prior matchups between two teams. Knowing how teams have played against one another in the past allows you to strongly predict the outcome of a future match.

While some teams do better in certain football competitions than others, others may consistently outperform their opponents. Making educated estimates based on this data provides viewers and bettors an advantage in understanding the dynamics of a certain match.

Looking at prior performances against similar opponents might help a team better understand its strengths and limitations. If Team A has a history of outperforming opponents, it may be a solid prediction of what will happen if they do better than Team B when they face each other.

Final Words

Lastly, statistics have grown in importance as the field of football match prediction has advanced rapidly. Football fans and bettors may enhance their overall experience and make more educated predictions by analyzing team performance metrics, player-specific statistics, and historical data.

These statistics, which give a scientific framework for evaluating teams and players, eventually lead to more accurate football forecasts.

The use of statistics to top match analysis and football betting predictions will be more important than ever as we prepare for the huge football contests of 2023.

Statistics are unquestionably a valuable tool for football bettors looking to better their betting strategies and anticipate football results. As a result, regardless of your degree of experience or passion for the game, statistics are extremely important in football forecasting.

 

 

 

 

First Past The Post

1. If the result of a race is amended before the weigh-in, when the official result is declared, win single/multiple bets and the win part of each way single/multiple bets will be paid on both the official result and the First Past The Post, with the following exceptions:

What Does this Mean?

What William Hill’s terms mean is that in general they do pay out on first past the post for UK and Irish racing, but there are some exceptions, which you can see in the box above. 

Those exceptions are for things like the Grand National (perhaps due to the huge liabilities they would have on the UK’s biggest horse race), ante-post bets, two-runner races and so on. 

So you have to be careful not to fall foul of one of those exceptions. In general though, the good news is that barring those caveats, William Hill do pay out on both first past the post and the official winner. 

It is pretty rare for the two to be different, but it does happen occasionally so this is a fair policy. 

The other piece of good news is that these rules apply to win singles and multiples and to each-way bets, so if you have an acca on for example that will be covered by William Hill’s First Past the Post rules. 

 

Get Free Betting Tips from Pro Tipsters Here

 

 

Check out our list of the Best Horse Racing Tipsters here

 

 

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The notion of making a livelihood by laying horses appears quite appealing. After all, if bookmakers can do it, why shouldn’t we? It seems relatively simple to choose horses to lose, certainly easier than selecting winners anyway.

Yet, the truth is that earning any income from laying horses is challenging, let alone sustaining a living from it. Only a select few expert bettors can successfully navigate this path, requiring a considerable amount of skill.

In the following discussion, we explore the reasons behind this challenge and then examine some strategies that may offer a chance to profit from laying.

 

Why is it so Hard to Make Money from Laying Horses?

With the introduction of betting exchanges like Betfair, punters gained the opportunity to lay horses, a privilege previously exclusive to bookmakers who accepted bets on them.

The logic behind laying is grounded in the fact that only one horse can win a race, seemingly increasing the likelihood of success. Additionally, there are always underperforming contenders, those perennially finishing second or third but never claiming victory, or horses facing unsuitable race conditions.

However, the harsh reality is that turning a profit from laying is a very tough task.

A contributing factor to this challenge is that when laying at BSP (Betfair Starting Price), the odds are typically around 20% higher than the industry starting price (ISP) at which bookmakers operate—or close to it when accepting early-day bets.

Bookmakers incorporate an over-round, enabling them to offer less favorable odds than a horse’s true chances of winning, confident that punters will still place their bets.

Punters, lacking this advantage, must surpass bookmakers in skill when predicting which horses are likely to lose and represent poor value. While this is a formidable challenge, it is not insurmountable, as we’ll explore below.

 

A Few Pointers on Lay Betting 

Before delving into successful lay betting strategies, it’s crucial to understand some key fundamentals of laying that are essential for making it work in the long run. 

• Staking: An integral aspect of lay betting involves meticulous consideration of your stakes. When laying a horse at odds of 11.0 for instance, you’re risking ten times your stake, resulting in higher liabilities compared to back betting. It’s imperative to assess how much you can afford to lose if the horse you’re laying emerges victorious and adjust your stake accordingly. Despite the increased liabilities, laying often comes with a higher strike rate than back betting, offering upsides to compensate.
• Betting Bank: Your choice of a betting bank depends on the odds at which you’re laying. Planning for adverse scenarios is prudent when determining your starting bank. For instance, if you’re laying at average odds of 5.0 and your starting bank is £1,000, consider laying with a stake of £10. This would limit potential losses on a selection to £40, constituting 4% of your bank.
• Staking Methods: Decide whether to employ a fixed liability or fixed stake. With fixed liability, you risk the same amount regardless of the odds. In contrast, fixed staking involves using the same amount irrespective of varying odds. Factor in commission, considering that even with Betfair’s 2% option (down from 5%), your laying activity needs to overcome this commission. In essence, you should aim for an edge of at least 3% over the market.

Now that we’ve covered these fundamental aspects of lay betting, let’s explore some strategies for laying with the aim of turning a profit.

 

Do Some People Really Lay Horses for a Living?

As previously acknowledged, generating income through laying horses poses significant challenges. This might lead you to question whether there are individuals who genuinely make a living from laying horses.

Indeed, there are fewer individuals who derive their livelihood from laying horses compared to those who make a living from backing them.

Notably, when exploring literature about professional punters such as Alex Bird, Patrick Veitch, and Dave Nevison, their focus often revolves around identifying long-shot value selections with odds of 20/1 and above.

Certainly, the fact that fewer individuals make a living from laying horses than backing doesn’t dismiss the possibility altogether.

There are indeed a select few elite individuals who consistently profit from laying, a subject we’ll explore further below.

The critical factors that allow them to do so include a deep understanding of identifying undervalued losers and implementing the effective bank management and staking strategies discussed earlier.

In a literal sense, there are people who lay horses for a living – the bookies. Whether they’re prominent online platforms like Bet365 or the individuals you encounter at the racecourse with their odds boards and wads of notes, bookmakers tend to thrive in this endeavor.

However, our focus here is on professional punters utilizing betting exchanges and the specific strategies they employ to make a living from laying.

 

The Expert Strategies for Laying Horses 

Okay, so let’s take a look at some expert strategies for laying horses on Betfair. These are the best ones we have found through years of research and testing strategies here at Honest Betting Reviews and are the kinds of approaches that professional layers take.

 

Low Liability Laying

Among the highly successful horse racing laying systems, one that stands out is the low-liability strategy known as Little Acorns.

This approach has demonstrated its effectiveness over a span of more than ten years. The longevity of a strategy is often considered the ultimate test of its robustness, and Little Acorns has certainly passed this examination with flying colors.

The Little Acorns system, introduced in 2009, has established itself as one of the most successful horse racing laying systems, boasting a track record of consistent profitability spanning over a decade.

The system relies on four straightforward rules and entails laying horses at odds-on (less than 2.0 on Betfair).

This strategy has not only made a healthy profit every year since its inception but has also undergone scrutiny, including our review that resulted in a solid 189 points profit, earning it a clear passed rating.

Little Acorns has received various accolades, including the Best Horse Racing Service 2020 award, as voted for by our members.

The system offers flexibility in staking options, presenting a choice between the higher-risk loss-recovery Fibonacci staking method and the safer but less profitable level stakes approach.

While the intricacies of how Little Acorns works are kept confidential, the system essentially identifies hot favorites with certain unfavorable characteristics, making them poor value to back and good value to lay.

Its enduring success has garnered a loyal following, with many users gradually building their stakes over the years to achieve substantial profits.

The system’s philosophy, encapsulated in its name, “From little acorns do mighty oaks grow,” underscores the idea of consistent, incremental profit growth.

Laying at odds-on ensures ample liquidity, eliminating concerns about multiple members laying the same horse and affecting prices. In the realm of expert laying strategies for horses, Little Acorns stands out as a tried and tested option.

 

Exponential Bet

The tools available to bettors in this day and age are becoming increasingly sophisticated. Back in the pre-internet days, a budding punter would only have a copy of the Racing Post, a racecard and maybe some “stable tips” to go on when trying to make their selections. 

Nowadays there is a wealth of information available online at the click of a mouse and all kinds of online tools to assist bettors. In particular there are now betting bots and automated systems that you can use to execute sophisticated betting strategies for you. 

One such suite of tools, which has a special focus on laying systems, is from the Exponential Bet team. Working in partnership with renowned bot developer Nigel Dove of Levelsoftware, they have developed laying systems that place bets automatically for you on Betfair. This happens through their Cloud Bet Bot software, which (as the name suggests) runs remotely on the cloud so doesn’t even need a VPS or leaving your computer on day and night to operate. Once set up, it just runs automatically in the background.

It is quite amazing to see this kind of technology available now and it opens up so many possibilities in the world of betting. Exponential Bet have a range of systems available. Their original approach was built around dutching and in-play betting, which we reviewed here, but they have evolved to develop laying systems including their “Lay Dutching” and “Racing Lays” strategies and are constantly testing out new strategies.

With this kind of technology available – in addition to trading software like Bet Angel and Fairbot that have options for automation – there are possibilities for developing sophisticated laying strategies that take advantage of factors like movements in the market, perceived value and other indicators to cream off small but regular profits. 

We see services like Exponential Bet as the future of betting and expect more tools like this to be released, giving users a potential edge over the market in their laying.

 

Over-Hyped Favourites

One of the straightforward yet effective laying strategies employed by professionals involves targeting over-hyped favorites.

This phenomenon is particularly prevalent in major racing meetings and festivals that receive extensive TV coverage and capture the attention of the average punter.

“Hot favorites” often become the focus of attention in publications like the Racing Post and are heavily tipped by popular tipsters.

This heavy endorsement tends to drive the odds down to levels below their true value.

The situation can escalate as TV pundits contribute to the hype, mentioning phrases like “this horse is being heavily backed” and “a lot of money has come in for this one.”

Such commentary can create a snowball effect, with more punters jumping on the bandwagon, further depressing the price. This cycle continues as the crashing odds attract additional punters, creating a self-perpetuating loop.

Extreme instances of this phenomenon are witnessed in so-called “betting coups” or “stable gambles.”

A recent example involved three horses from different yards lined up for a gamble on the same day. Multiple bets were placed the night before on Fire Away at 20/1, Blowing Dixie at 13/2, and Gallahers Cross at 33/1.

Bookmakers observed a series of substantial bets across various accounts, each poised to win hundreds of thousands of pounds.

Despite the horses being relative long-shots, the sizable liabilities raised concerns among bookmakers.

Last night saw big movement for 3️⃣ horses.

Our Head of Trading explains the impact this has had and why you will have to take shorter prices now! pic.twitter.com/9lRRX6ewxf

— BetVictor Racing (@BetVictorRacing) February 7, 2021

The bookmakers likely experienced heightened concern when the 20/1 shot Fire Away secured victory, getting the treble off to a successful start. 

The level of anxiety probably escalated further when Blowing Dixie also won its race just over an hour later, signaling that something unusual was occurring.

Word of the coup quickly spread across social media, with individuals sharing pictures of betting slips displaying substantial potential winnings if the final horse, Gallahers Cross, were to win its race. Mainstream media outlets picked up the story, amplifying the frenzy.

As the race approached, Gallahers Cross, initially priced at a massive 33/1 the night before, saw a dramatic shift in odds, being backed at odds-on.

This transformation occurred despite the horse’s recent poor performance, finishing last or next to last in four out of its last five races. The idea of this remarkable treble landing fueled the perception that it must be predestined or a setup.

The bookmakers, aware of the immense liabilities they were facing, slashed the odds, even though the actual chances of Gallahers Cross winning were far from better-than-even.

This created an enticing opportunity for laying, as the exuberance and hype had surpassed rational assessments of the horse’s true chances.

In the end, despite early promise in the race, Gallahers Cross finished well beaten into fourth place by over six lengths.

This scenario serves as a compelling example of exuberance and hype distorting the perceived likelihood of a horse winning a race. While the horse may have been targeted for this specific race, various challenges, including difficult conditions, strong competition, and the hurdles, could have derailed its performance.

The odds presented an excellent laying opportunity for those who recognized the disparity between perception and actual probability, allowing them to potentially profit with minimal liabilities.

 

The extreme example provided highlights a broader point about how hype and media attention can significantly skew odds.

While such instances are rare, less extreme examples occur regularly, especially with popular jockeys like Frankie Dettori, who can spark plunges on horses after early wins, particularly at major festivals like Royal Ascot.

Even at smaller meetings, there are frequent instances of hyped-up favorites and those deemed to have “everything in their favor” for a given day.

Interestingly, a study commissioned by Betfair contradicted the common belief that backing “steamers” – horses heavily backed in the market – is a profitable strategy. The research, based on a large sample size of bets, revealed that this approach was, in fact, unprofitable.

This emphasizes a key tool used by laying experts to generate profit: the ability to ignore the buzz surrounding horses that have been heavily backed and instead focus on a horse’s actual chances of winning a race.

By maintaining a clear-eyed perspective and avoiding the influence of market movements driven by hype, laying experts aim to make more informed decisions that align with the true probabilities of success.

 

 

Place Laying

Another potential laying strategy is to focus on the place market on Betfair rather than the win market. 

The advantages of this are that in general you will be laying at much lower odds than on the win market, thus limiting your liabilities and that whilst the focus of most punters is on the win market, little attention is paid to the place market leaving opportunities for the shrewd bettor.

The place markets are usually tied to the win markets but sometimes discrepancies do occur. Horse racing site flatstats have a “Win / Place Price Disparity” tool which can be useful for spotting such opportunities. The trick is to determine when such discrepancies are valid and when they are genuine errors in the market, which only time and practice, and a keen eye, can spot. 

There are also some horses who are ripe for laying in the place market due to being “all or nothing” types. These are the horses that tend to either win a race or crash out, but rarely place. They are the inconsistent sorts who can be ideal for place laying due to the way the place market tends to be priced up in relation to the win market rather than on its own merits.

 

Dobbing

Finally we have a strategy that involves both laying and backing and that is a practice known as “dobbing” (which might sound like something rude but in betting terms at least is not). We explain in more detail how it works here, but in short the acronym DOB stands for “double or bust” betting.

It involves finding those horses that are likely to shorten in price in-play. A DOB better would back such horses before a race and then lay them off in-play. Typically it would be at half the odds, so if backing at 4.0, they would lay at odds of 2.0, but that is not a hard-and-fast rule and can be adapted to the individual circumstances of the horse and race.

There are certain horses who are ideal for dobbing strategies including front runners and those who tend to go close in a high proportion of their races.

There are now tools like Hedger Pro that can help identify such horses and provide back-to-lay trading opportunities.

It is surprising how often some horses shorten in price in-play and learning to spot such opportunities can be a lucrative endeavour for those shrewd enough to do it.

 

Conclusion – Laying Horses for a Living

Unless you happen to be a bookie, laying horses for a living is a tough task. There are a relatively small proportion of professional punters who make their income from laying as opposed to those who do so from backing horses.

That doesn’t mean it can’t be done however and there are increasingly sophisticated tools available now to aid punters in their quest to find successful lay bets.

We have outlined some of the best tools and strategies for laying above, to give a sense of how the experts do it and to hopefully aid you in your own lay betting.

As ever, whether you use one of the strategies set out above or your own laying system, please always gamble responsibly and only risk what you can afford to lose.

 

When it comes to betting on football, sometimes it can pay to focus on a particular aspect of the game. For example, an increasingly popular way to bet on football is to focus on first half goals.

There are a number of different markets to bet on in terms of first half goals and a variety strategies you can use. 

Below we’ll take a look at those markets, the stats regarding goals in the first half and then the best strategies you can use.

 

First Half Goal Markets

There are a number of different markets you can utilise if betting on first half goals. The main ones are:-

• Over/under 0.5 first half goals
• Over/under 1.5 first half goals
• Over/under 2.5 first half goals
• Half-time result
• Half-time score

The first two markets listed above are usually fairly liquid and can be good for trading. The half-time result and half-time score are a little more variable in terms of liquidity. Generally they are okay to trade in the big games like Premier League, Champions League matches etc, but can be a little more tricky on smaller leagues. 

Therefore it is probably best to focus on the 0.5 and 1.5 first half goal markets for most betting and trading strategies on first half goals. 

 

Stats on First Half Goals

Before you start betting on first half goals, it is important to firstly have an idea of the stats. How often are goals scored in the first half? How long does it normally take to score a goal? Is there an optimal time to enter the market?

Knowing the answers to these questions will give you a better chance of success in the long run.

In general terms, just under 70% of football matches have a goal in the first half, meaning just over 30% finish 0-0 at half-time.

Equally, 44% of all goals are scored in the first half, so although they tend to be cagier than second halves, there is still normally a good chance of a first half goal in most games.

On average there are around 1.3 goals scored in the first half of games, although this varies greatly by league, with the Singapore Premier League having over 1.8 goals scored in the first half for example, whereas the English Premier League tends to have closer to 1.2 goals scored in the first half on average. 

Whichever way you look at the stats however, in general terms there is more likely to be a goal in the first half of a football match than not, on average. 

It is then a case of breaking things down by league, team, time and market to find the value and build your strategies.

 

                    —————–Check out our number one ranked football tipster here—————–

 

Things to Watch Out For When Betting on First Half Goals

Before we get into the strategies themselves, it is worth bearing a few things in mind before betting on first half goals.

There are certain advantages to getting involved in first half goals – for one there are a variety of markets for you to choose from and most of them have good liquidity. As you are only focusing on one half, there is also less of a game for you monitor and only 45 minutes of your time is taken up per game. 

If you are backing the overs, it can also be fun to cheer on goals and to see teams press forward and create chances, hopefully leading to a winning bet for you.

On the flip side, it can be quite frustrating if the teams are playing defensively or creating chances but not putting them away. And of course you only have one half for your bet to land –  if it doesn’t it can be tough to then see the teams score a hat-full of goals in the second half.  

When looking at the first half markets, it is also important to be aware of issues like team news – if a key striker or playmaker is due to be out for one of the teams, the chances of there being goals could diminish quite significantly. Or perhaps the coach is setting the side up in a defensive formation, limiting their attacking options. All of these factors need to be taken into consideration when betting or trading on the first half markets.

Anyway, now let’s get on with having a look at some strategies for betting during the first half. 

 

First Half Goal Strategies

Here we take a look at some first half goal strategies, including both before the game kicks off and in-play. 

 

1. Focus on Team Stats and Styles

One way to bet on the first half is to look at individual team records for those sides who tend to score more goals in the first half. 

The basis of this strategy is that some sides tend to come out of the blocks fast and try to get ahead early in the game, meaning a higher likelihood of first half goals.

For example, Liverpool under Jurgen Klopp have tended to come flying out the blocks and put teams under pressure early on in games, in an effort to establish an early lead and put the game to bed by half-time. That has particularly been the case at Anfield, with the crowd behind them and using a high-press strategy.

Using a site like Soccerstats, you can firstly look at which sides have strong first half records. Here is an example from the English Premier League. 

Despite finishing seventh in the table overall, Tottenham were second in the first half table, leading 18 times at half-time out of 38 games and scoring 37 first half goals and conceding just 19. 

At the same time, you could look for sides towards the bottom of the table who concede a lot of first half goals. For example West Brom conceded 39 first half goals, the highest in the Premier League. 

If you have a match-up of a team that tends to score a lot of first-half goals against a side that tends to concede a lot, that could be an ideal situation for backing first half goals.

Whether you choose to back over 0.5 or over 1.5 first half (FH) goals depends on your appetite to risk and the specific scenario you are faced with. Some sides have a tendency to score multiple goals in the first half, in which case backing over 1.5 goals might be preferable.

On the other hand, some sides consistently score or concede just one goal, in which case it is probably to better to just back over 0.5 first half goals.

Of course the odds on over 0.5 FH goals will be much lower, often around the 1.3-1.5 mark, whereas for over 1.5 FH goals they can often be 2.5-3.5, so how much risk you want to take and the amount you are aiming to win will also affect which market you choose to enter. 

Another approach is to look at time bands for when teams tend to score and concede in the first half. 

Again, using Soccerstats we can see a breakdown for each team:

You may wish therefore to wait until a game has gone in-play and then focus on a particular time period in the first half when a team tends to score or concede. 

Liverpool for example see a lot of goals in the 30-45 time period, so you may wish to wait until around 25-30 minutes in the half before placing your bet in one of their games. The odds will be substantially higher if there hasn’t been a goal by that stage, or if there has been one goal you can select the over 1.5 FH goals market.

In summary there are lots of ways to approach the first half goals market, but using team-specific stats and looking at teams’ playing styles can give you an edge over other gamblers.

 

2. Using In-play Stats

Another approach to the first half goals markets is to monitor how games are progressing in-running before placing your bets.

Despite doing all the pre-game research in the world, some football matches end up very different to what you were expecting once they go live. Two very defensive sides can end up in an open, attacking game with lots of goals and vice versa.

As mentioned above, you can also get much better odds if there are no goals after say 15-20 minutes. The stats show that the first 15 minutes of games are the most cagey, with the last 15 minutes of a half having significantly more goals.

Here are the stats from the Premier League for the 2019-20 season via soccerstats:

As you can see, the first 15 minutes has the fewest goals, with just 115, versus 202 goals for the 31-45 minute time period. This may be due to teams starting off games in a cagey fashion as they size each other up, but opening up more as the half goes on and then pouring forward towards the end of the half to try and get a lead before the break. 

So it can be a good idea to delay entering the markets and see how a game is progressing before entering any trades. If you are going to do this, it is a good idea to use a site like Goal Profits to assist you. 

In addition to a wealth of stats on teams and leagues, they also have an in-play Live Stats Module which provides in-running stats on games including shots, corners, possession etc and even alerts when it’s a good time to enter a trade based on the stats. 

They also have a live chat room where their professional football traders, Kevin Laverick and Steve Brown trade matches live, so you can follow along with their trades if you wish. They trade a variety of different markets, but some of these will be first half markets, giving you the chance to profit along with them on the opening 45 minutes. 

To get an edge over other punters it is well worth using a top trading site like Goal Profits, where you use all the stats and tools on offer as well as learn from pro traders. You can check out our full review of the site here for more info about it. 

We would also say in general if you are going to trade a game in-play it is a good idea to watch it live, as you will get a better idea of the flow of a game than from the stats alone. If you are seeing lots of chances being created and a particularly open game, it could be a good time to enter the first half goals market. 

Waiting for a game to go in-play and seeing how it develops can be a good way then to approach the first half goal markets. 

 

 

3. Two early goals 

Another first half strategy is one that looks specifically for games with early goals and comes from the excellent trading service Trade on Sports.

This strategy focuses solely on games that have gone 1-1 early in the first half and is dubbed the “Quick Response” strategy – or QR for short. 

A game is a potential qualifier for the strategy if a goal is scored in the first 20 minutes, then another quick goal is scored within 10 minutes of the first, taking the score to 1-1.

The idea behind the strategy is that it identifies instances where the chances of a draw (or the game staying 1-1) is much lower than the odds suggest, based on past data from the teams and leagues involved. It has over 90% success rate and has remained a key part of the Trade on Sports portfolio of strategies for a number of years now. 

Members receive an alert via the Telegram app when a relevant game is identified by the bot, and can choose to either lay the draw or back another first half goal. At the time of writing the strategy has made 29 points profit when backing over 2.5 first half goals after 25 minutes.

So if you are looking for a specific first half strategy with a long track record of success, this one could be well worth checking out. You can also check out our full review of Trade on Sports here.

 

Conclusion – Getting an Edge on First Half Goals

These days there a wide variety of ways you can bet on a football match and focusing on the first half has become increasingly popular. 

There are a number of different markets you can choose from, but the over 0.5 and over 1.5 first half goals are generally the main ones to target. 

If you are going to bet or trade on first half goals, it is important to give yourself the best chance of succeeding. That means using stats, watching games and using all the tools available to you. 

It is also a good idea to follow a set strategy. We have laid out three strategies above to give you some guidance, but of course you may wish to develop your own approach. 

Whether you follow one of the strategies set out above or follow your own one though, please remember to always gamble responsibly – and good luck with your betting on first half goals!