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Betting Tipsters: Your Secret Weapon for Winning Wagers in 2024

When it comes to sports betting, many punters often feel like they’re rolling the dice, hoping for the best.

But what if you could turn the odds in your favour?

Enter betting tipsters – the experts who analyse stats, trends, and form to provide you with well-researched predictions.

These days with an ever-growing variety of sports and betting options, tipsters are more valuable than ever.

Let’s explore how tipsters betting can become your secret weapon for consistent, informed wagering success.


Tipsters for Betting 101: Who Are They and What Do They Do?

Betting tipsters are professional sports prediction experts who specialize in providing the best betting tips, often backed by deep statistical analysis and industry knowledge.

These individuals, or sometimes teams, dedicate their time to studying games, tournaments, and players, offering insights that casual bettors might miss.

Betting predictions are shaped by expert analysis and various factors, including team performance, statistics, and game conditions, to provide bettors with informed betting tips.

There are various types of betting tipsters:

  • Sport-specific tipsters focus on one sport, such as football betting tipsters, horse racing tipsters, or tennis betting experts.
  • Generalists offer tips across a range of sports but may not delve as deeply into each one.
  • Value bet tipsters are those who specialize in spotting opportunities where the bookmakers have set odds that don’t accurately reflect the true probability of an event happening.

Betting tipsters use various methods to analyse games, often relying on form, player injuries, head-to-head stats, and other performance indicators.

Some modern tipsters also employ betting algorithms or statistical analysis software to predict outcomes, enhancing their ability to provide reliable betting advice.

Technology has revolutionised the world of betting tipsters.

From advanced prediction tools to tipster betting software platforms, modern tipsters have access to more data and better forecasting methods than ever before.

This combination of human insight and technology-driven predictions has made betting tipsters a key part of many punters’ betting strategies.

 

Top 10 Betting Tipsters

In the world of sports betting, having the right guidance can make all the difference, and these top ten betting tipsters have consistently demonstrated their ability to deliver profitable insights and strategies.

These are all tipsters we have tested out here on the site at Honest Betting Reviews under live trial conditions. 

Only the very best have stood up to the test and made it on to this top 10 list! 

 

10. The Inside Man

  • Sport: Football
  • Return on Investment (ROI): 10%
  • Win Rate: 52%

The Inside Man is a football tipster with a unique advantage, having previously worked as a bookmaker.

Adam Cheng, the man behind The Inside Man, was formerly the Head of Football Trading at Fitzdares.

In this role, he didn’t just set the odds for the bookmaker but also traded football markets to boost profits.

In 2020, Adam transitioned to becoming a full-time professional gambler, and his results have been impressive since then.

According to Bet Chat’s website, he has generated over 150 points of profit with a 10% ROI.

With a 52% win rate, more than half of his bets have been successful so far.

From our own experience, The Inside Man service has been outstanding, earning us over 60 points during our trial.

The service is easy to follow, with 5-10 bets per week, mainly focusing on match odds, Asian handicaps, and player pass markets.

Overall, The Inside Man is a top tipster and a service well worth considering.

 

9. Patrick Ross Tennis

  • Sport: Tennis
  • Return on Investment (ROI): 12%
  • Win Rate: 63% (Spartan Trading Tips)

Run by renowned tennis expert Patrick Ross, this service stands out from typical tennis betting offerings.

The service includes the Tennis Goldmine betting system, which Patrick designed to lay players based on specific criteria.

During our live trial, the system delivered 28 points profit with a 10% ROI.

In addition to the Tennis Goldmine system, Patrick provides his own betting tips and Spartan Trading Tips, which earned 71 points in our trial.

It’s worth highlighting that his trading tips have reportedly turned a 100-point bank into 1,500 points, demonstrating the effectiveness of his methods.

This level of success showcases Patrick’s analytical skills and deep knowledge of tennis.

Over the years, Patrick Ross has generated significant profits and is widely regarded as one of the top tennis betting experts.

 

8. Racing Intelligence

  • Sport: Horse Racing
  • Return on Investment (ROI): 14%
  • Win Rate: 40% 

Racing Intelligence earns a position in our rankings of the best tipsters for betting by adopting a distinctive and non-traditional approach compared to most tipsters.

Rather than relying on conventional methods such as form analysis, this service sets itself apart by obtaining tips from an “insider” employed at a major UK bookmaker.

Although claims of “inside information” can often be met with doubt, our live trial validated Racing Intelligence’s integrity, delivering outstanding results.

Throughout the trial, the service produced a remarkable 192 points profit at advised prices and 76 points profit at Betfair SP.

Looking at its long-term track record, Racing Intelligence is comparable to the industry’s elite, having accumulated over 1,000 points profit at advised prices and 500 points at Betfair SP.

With such impressive performance across both advised prices and BSP, Racing Intelligence justifiably secures a prominent position in our rankings.

 

7. Ben Coley – The Sporting Life

  • Sport: Golf
  • Return on Investment (ROI): N/A
  • Win Rate: N/A

The lead golf tipster at The Sporting Life is Ben Coley, a highly regarded and well-known figure with a history of notable wins, making him a favorite among golf punters.

Ben had a successful 2020, landing big wins such as Marc Warren at 150/1 in the Austrian Open, Sami Valimaki at 250/1 in the Oman Open, and Cameron Smith at 50/1 in the Sony Open.

While 2019 wasn’t one of his strongest years, Ben was profitable in the three preceding years, which is commendable. He bounced back impressively in 2021, 2022, and 2023, bringing his overall profits to +2,385 points.

Throughout his career, Ben has secured some massive wins, including one at 300/1!

These are remarkable accomplishments, but it’s important to recognize that securing Ben’s advised prices can be a challenge. Due to his popularity (and the fact that his tips are free), many punters struggle to get the same odds and often have to settle for lower prices.

This isn’t a reflection on Ben—if anything, it speaks to the quality of his tips.

Even with the odds drop that often occurs, Ben has more than earned his reputation as one of the top names in sports tipping.

 

6. Bet Alchemist

  • Sport: Horse Racing
  • Return on Investment (ROI): 13%
  • Win Rate: 15% 

Under the expert leadership of Nicky Doyle, The Bet Alchemist has consistently demonstrated its value over the years.

Since its launch in 2012, the service has generated a total profit of just over 820 points.

This averages out to an impressive annual profit of 72 points, equating to approximately £3,620 in profit when using £50 stakes.

A key highlight of The Bet Alchemist is its focus on widely available prices, rather than solely chasing the highest odds.

This makes it easier for members to match the advertised results, a significant advantage over many other tipsters.

In our own trial, The Bet Alchemist delivered a solid profit of 38 points, with a strong 26% ROI.

The service particularly shines during major racing festivals, with an impressive track record of landing big-priced winners.

It has secured victories at odds of 25/1, 66/1, 33/1, and more at prestigious events like Cheltenham.

Following the service is simple, with most bets provided on weekends and during major race meetings.

In recent years, The Bet Alchemist has been on a hot streak, delivering 109 points of profit in 2023 and over 100 points so far in 2024.

With its consistent performance and reliability, it is a valuable asset to any betting portfolio.

The Bet Alchemist’s long-standing success makes it a trusted option for bettors looking for a dependable tipster service.

 

5. Premium Boxing Tips

  • Sport: Boxing
  • Return on Investment (ROI): 13%
  • Win Rate: 66% 

Premium Boxing Tips ranks high on our list as the gold standard for boxing tipsters, boasting an impressive track record in this niche.

Since 2015, the service has accumulated 800 points in profit—equating to £8,000 if you were staking £10 per point, a substantial return.

With a 66% strike rate and 13% ROI, Premium Boxing Tips has maintained excellent performance over an extended period.

What really sets this service apart is its methodical approach. It’s all about uncovering value in the markets and placing well-researched, strategic bets.

As highlighted in our full review, Premium Boxing Tips is known for its consistency and reliability. The profit graph is a testament to that, showing a steady upward trend since the service began—something many tipsters aspire to achieve.

During our trial, the service delivered 117 points in profit, and its results have continued to impress beyond our review period.

The tips cover a range of markets, including outright winners, method of victory, and round betting, with a focus on identifying undervalued odds.

With years of experience and a data-driven, analytical approach, Premium Boxing Tips ensures every selection is grounded in facts. It’s truly a top-tier sports tipster.

 

4. Scottish Confidential 

  • Sport: Football
  • Return on Investment (ROI): 10%
  • Win Rate: 43% 

Scottish Confidential is a tipster service dedicated exclusively to Scottish football.

Run by a university-educated mathematician based near Glasgow, the tipster behind this service boasts an impressive and diverse background.

He has worked at major bookmakers, served as a proprietary trader for an Asian private investment syndicate, and acted as a consultant for a quant-driven hedge fund specializing in Scottish betting markets.

His deep local knowledge of teams, players, and their motivations has made him a sought-after expert in the field.

The results speak for themselves: Scottish Confidential has delivered over 200 points in profit with a 43% strike rate and a 10% return on investment (ROI).

We’ve followed this service for four years and can verify that the reported results are accurate and consistently excellent.

The tipster primarily focuses on match odds (1X2) but also explores markets such as over/under 2.5 goals, draw no bet (DNB), and double chance (DC).

From the Scottish Premiership to League Two, Scottish Confidential has achieved outstanding profits over the years, leveraging its unparalleled knowledge of Scottish football.

This makes Scottish Confidential a top service for those not only interested in Scottish football but also in making consistent profits from sports betting.

 

3.  Hanbury Racing

  • Sport: Horse Racing
  • Return on Investment (ROI): 31%
  • Win Rate: 19% 

Hanbury Racing, a relatively new addition to the tipster scene, has quickly gained attention since its launch in 2020.

Operating on the Mega Tipsters platform, this service has become known for landing winners at odds of 100/1 and even higher.

To date, Hanbury Racing has achieved over 1,500 points in profit, which equates to more than £15,000 with £10 per point stakes.

While the service holds a solid 19% strike rate, its most impressive feature is the 31% return on investment (ROI).

Richard Hutchinson, the expert behind Hanbury Racing, brings extensive horse racing knowledge, which is evident in his detailed write-ups.

His expertise was further validated when he won the Tote Ten To Follow Jumps competition in 2020.

During our live trial, Hanbury Racing delivered outstanding performance, generating 238 points of profit with a 27% ROI.

Notably, they also secured a 100/1 winner during the trial—one of the biggest wins we’ve ever recorded.

Hanbury Racing’s exceptional success in recent years firmly places it high on our list of top tipsters.

 

2. The Golf Insider

  • Sport: Golf
  • Return on Investment (ROI): 30%
  • Win Rate: 11%

Coming in at number two on our list of the top betting tipsters is The Golf Insider, which boasts an impressive track record spanning seven years.

Renowned for uncovering substantial winners at high odds, The Golf Insider consistently delivers exceptional results.

Since launching their tipping service in 2014, they have achieved over 2,000 points in profit, amounting to £20,000 if you were staking £10 per point—a remarkable return.

What truly distinguishes The Golf Insider is their impressive 30% ROI, a level of performance that is exceptional in any sport.

During our live trial, they recorded winners at 150/1 and 50/1, concluding with a total profit of 406 points.

Some of The Golf Insider’s most significant victories include odds of 150/1, 200/1, 125/1, and beyond, showcasing their skill in identifying undervalued players.

Their computer model and value ratings consider critical statistics such as strokes gained off the tee, greens in regulation, and putting performance.

With a long-term record of success and consistent results over the years, The Golf Insider’s expertise and knowledge are beyond question.

Given their outstanding performance and longevity, it’s no surprise that The Golf Insider so high on our list of the best tipsters for betting.

 

1. The Bookies Enemy

  • Sport: Horse Racing
  • Return on Investment (ROI): 12%
  • Win Rate: 19% 

The Bookies Enemy currently sits at the top of our rankings of betting tipsters, having earned this distinction through an exceptional track record and outstanding performance.

The service is operated by Gary Poole, a seasoned professional punter with more than 20 years of experience.

In 2022 alone, The Bookies Enemy achieved over 300 points in profit, boasting an impressive ROI exceeding 40%.

Gary continued this success with an additional 150 points in profit in 2023, further enhancing the service’s reputation.

What sets The Bookies Enemy apart is its ability to meet all the criteria of a top-tier tipster.

First, the returns have been remarkable, with a staggering £26,000 in profit accumulated at £25 per point stakes since 2017, alongside significant profits during Gary’s tenure as a private tipster.

Second, the service maintains a solid strike rate of 20% and a 14% ROI, demonstrating consistent performance over the past six years.

Third, The Bookies Enemy has exhibited impressive consistency, with a high percentage of winning months and profitable years.

Finally, the service is easy to follow, typically providing just a few bets each day. Tips are usually posted the evening before the races, allowing ample time to place your bets.

During our live trial, The Bookies Enemy delivered over 104 points in profit over three months, showcasing its effectiveness.

With sustained success and excellent results, The Bookies Enemy is highly recommended and rightfully deserves its top-ranking position in this list of the best tipsters for betting.

 

 

The Good, The Bad, and The Scammy: How to Identify Reliable and Profitable Tipsters

The sports betting world is not without its shady characters, and unfortunately, this includes some betting tipsters.

The challenge is finding reliable sports tipsters who are genuinely knowledgeable and trustworthy.

Here’s how to separate the good from the bad:

  1. Trustworthy betting tipsters have a verified track record. They should be able to show historical results, either through a third-party verification service such as this site or on public forums. Verified tipster track records offer transparency and help you assess their tipster accuracy rates and tipster win percentages.
  2. Be wary of tipsters making outrageous profit guarantees or offering “sure wins.” Sports betting is never a guarantee, and anyone claiming otherwise is likely misleading you. Tipster scam prevention involves spotting these kinds of claims early.
  3. A good tipster will always be transparent about both wins and losses. The best tipsters may not win every bet, but over time, they should demonstrate a positive tipster ROI analysis (return on investment).

Many reliable tipsters also provide information on free bets, which are promotional offers allowing users to place wagers without risking their own money.

To find reliable betting tipsters, look for profitable tipsters with proven track records and the benefits they offer, such as exclusive insights and expert advice.

You can use tipster comparison websites such as this one, where you can read reviews and performance data for verified tipsters.

Additionally, social media platforms and betting tipster forums are invaluable resources for discussing tips and identifying which tipsters consistently deliver.

 

Maximizing Your Profits: Betting Strategies for Following Tipsters

Once you’ve found a good tipster, the next challenge is knowing how to maximize your returns from their advice.

Bankroll management is essential when following tipsters. You’ll need to allocate your betting funds in a way that allows for both risk and longevity.

Many bettors use a bankroll strategy where they bet a fixed percentage of their total bankroll on each tip, usually between 1% and 5%. This limits losses while allowing for long-term growth.

Another key to success is learning how to interpret and act on a tipster’s advice. Blindly following tips without understanding the reasoning behind them can be risky.

Balancing multiple tipsters’ recommendations can also enhance your strategy, as long as their advice aligns and doesn’t contradict.

While following tipsters, it’s important to also develop your own skills. Learn about the sports you’re betting on, study betting markets, and continue to evolve.

This way, you can become less reliant on tipsters over time and better assess their suggestions.

 

The Psychology of Following Betting Tipsters: Mindset for Success

Betting, especially when relying on tipsters, is as much about psychology as it is about strategy. Managing your mindset is crucial to long-term success.

First, it’s essential to manage your expectations. No matter how reliable a tipster is, there will be losses.

Building discipline and patience is key to ensuring that you don’t make impulsive bets after a losing streak.

Avoid chasing losses, which is one of the most common psychological pitfalls in betting.

Moreover, adopting a long-term perspective will help you maintain emotional balance. Focus on the overall trend rather than individual wins or losses.

Betting tipsters often perform best over a longer timeframe, so it’s important to stick with their strategies, even during down periods.

 

Betting Tipsters Across Different Sports: A Comprehensive Guide to Sports Betting

Tipsters aren’t one-size-fits-all. The best tipster for football may not be the best for horse racing or tennis.

Let’s take a closer look at how betting tipsters perform across different sports:

  • Football betting tipsters often specialize in major leagues, offering advice on markets like accumulator bets, in-play betting, and value bets. Football is a data-rich sport, so tipsters here often rely on statistical models to predict outcomes.
  • Horse racing tipsters are prized for their ability to analyse form, track conditions, and jockey performance. Unlike other sports, where team stats are more significant, individual factors like the horse’s health and trainer play a huge role.
  • Tennis betting experts typically focus on individual matchups and surface preferences, offering insight into player form and head-to-head records.

Additionally, platforms offering free football tips can be invaluable for both new and experienced bettors, providing a variety of tips to help make informed and profitable betting choices.

Seasonality plays a big role too.

For example, tipster performance tracking in sports like football and tennis may show dips during off-seasons or tournament transitions.

Meanwhile, emerging trends in niche sports like esports betting are presenting new opportunities for bettors.

 

The Business of Betting Tipsters: Services, Subscriptions, and Free Tips

When choosing a betting tipster, you’ll have two main options: paid tipster services or free betting tips.

Paid tipster services often come with a subscription fee, and their tips are usually more detailed, with a focus on maximizing returns.

However, before signing up for any paid service, it’s important to conduct a tipster services comparison.

Assess whether the subscription cost is justified by the tipster’s profit margins, tipster customer support quality, and the tipster selection criteria they use.

On the other hand, many free platforms provide useful tips, but the quality is often inconsistent.

Leveraging the best free betting tips from experienced tipsters with verified track records can be crucial for both novice and seasoned bettors.

Leveraging free tips can be a good way to supplement paid services or test out a tipster before committing to a subscription.

Additionally, free super tips offer zero-cost betting predictions across various sports, backed by extensive research and expert tipsters, providing actionable insights to enhance your betting strategies.

 

Responsible Betting

At HonestBettingReviews, we prioritize responsible betting practices to ensure a safe and enjoyable experience for all users.

We understand that sports betting can be a fun and exciting way to engage with your favourite sports, but it’s essential to maintain a responsible approach to avoid potential risks.

Here are some key principles to keep in mind:

  • Set a budget: Establish a budget for your betting activities and stick to it. This will help you avoid overspending and minimize the risk of financial difficulties.
  • Know your limits: Be aware of your own limits and don’t bet more than you can afford to lose. It’s essential to recognize when you’re on a losing streak and take a break.
  • Don’t chase losses: Avoid chasing losses by betting more to recoup your losses. This can lead to a vicious cycle of debt and financial problems.
  • Take breaks: Take regular breaks from betting to reassess your strategy and maintain a healthy perspective.
  • Seek help: If you’re struggling with problem gambling, seek help from a reputable organization or support group. We provide resources and support for users who need assistance.

By following these responsible betting principles, you can enjoy sports betting while minimizing the risks. Remember, betting should be a form of entertainment, not a way to make a living.

Additional resources:

At HonestBettingReviews, we’re committed to promoting responsible betting practices and providing a safe and enjoyable experience for all users.

 

Conclusion – Betting Tipsters Today

These days the world of sports betting is more competitive than ever, and a top-notch betting tipster could be the secret to gaining an edge.

Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just starting out, tipsters can transform your betting approach, offering you well-researched insights and improving your odds of winning.

But remember, success comes from combining the right tipster betting discipline techniques with a smart strategy and the proper mindset.

The key to victory isn’t just in finding the right tipster, but in how you use their advice to elevate your betting game.

 

 

AI vs sports tipsters

The Rise of AI in Sports Prediction: Is AI Better than Tipsters?

For years sports betting has been a world where tipsters ruled the roost, using a combination of skill, stats, analysis, hard work and sometimes even just a bit of good old-fashioned human intuition.  

But with the advent of technology, particularly artificial intelligence (AI), the world of sports prediction has started to change.

Now AI powered systems are challenging human tipsters and the debate is on as to which one is more accurate and better value.

In this article we’ll look at the evolution of sports prediction, the science behind AI systems and answer the question: is AI better than tipsters? 

The Evolution of Sports Prediction: From Gut Feelings to Algorithms

Sports betting has been around for centuries, from a simple bet between friends to the multi-billion dollar industry it is today.

Early predictions in betting were often based on gut feel and some knowledge of the sport.

Professional tipsters emerged in the 20th century and offered bettors calculated predictions based on their expertise.

With the advent of data analytics in the 21st century a new era began. Numbers and patterns started to join human insight.

Artificial intelligence in sports betting has taken this data-driven approach to a whole new level.

Machine learning sports prediction models can now process vast amounts of data in real time, crunching reams of data almost instantly. 

The rise of AI and machine learning in sports prediction has led to more complex systems that claim to outperform the best human tipsters.

But can AI really surpass the expertise and human experience that tipsters bring to the table?

How AI Sports Prediction Works: The Science Behind the Scores

AI sports prediction is driven by machine learning algorithms that use big datasets to find patterns and make predictions.

These algorithms are trained on historical data such as player stats, team performance, head-to-head records and even weather conditions.

By learning from this data AI systems can make predictions more accurately.

One of the key benefits of AI is its ability to process real-time sports data analysis.

For example automated sports prediction systems can track live updates during a game and adjust their predictions accordingly.

This level of responsiveness gives AI a big advantage over traditional methods where predictions were made before a game and stay static.

Neural networks for game prediction are thought to be one of the most promising forms of AI, as they are designed to mimic the human brain’s learning process.

So based on this you would think AI would be the answer to all our betting-related problems, right? 

Certainly the AI enthusiasts would like us to believe so. 

IBM’s Watson is a much-heralded example of using AI in sports prediction and it has been used to predict match outcomes in tennis to show the potential of AI betting accuracy.

However, its results do not appear to have performed particularly well and there is scant evidence yet that it is able to produce a positive return when predicting match outcomes. 

This is true of much AI in sports prediction – a lot of hype and excitement, but little sign yet it can actually deliver the goods in terms of producing profitable predictions. 

The Human Touch: Understanding the Role of Tipsters

While AI is trying to change the world of sports prediction, human tipsters still have a big part to play in the betting world.

Tipsters bring experience and inside knowledge, often tapping into factors that are hard for machines to quantify.

Human tipsters can build relationships with bettors and offer personalised advice and understand their preferences.

One of the main strengths of tipsters is their ability to consider psychological factors, team morale, a player’s form, or even internal strife within a club.

These can be key to predicting outcomes and expert tipster strategies often include intangibles that AI misses.

And the relationship between bettors and tipsters is built on trust. People want to follow experts they feel understand the sport more.

The human touch in sports forecasting can create a loyal following that AI may struggle to replicate.

AI vs Tipsters: A Head to Head Comparison

When comparing AI sports prediction vs tipsters you need to consider many factors.

In terms of accuracy rates, tipsters still outperform AI, perhaps because they are able to factor in the human element to betting that AI cannot.

AI generated betting tips benefit from being free from emotional bias, being based solely on data.

But human tipsters are more adaptable. While AI can struggle with unexpected events like a last minute player injury, human experts can adjust their predictions quickly.

Whilst historical data is the backbone of AI, it doesn’t account for anomalies. A seasoned tipster however sees an opportunity in those.

In terms of speed and volume however, AI wins hands down. Automated bots can produce predictions for multiple games in seconds, whereas human tipsters take time to research and analyse each game.

But that speed can sometimes come at the cost of the nuance that only a human touch can bring.

In terms of results, human tipsters are way ahead at the moment. 

Across a whole range of sports, there are top quality verified tipsters who have produced a profit over long periods of time.  

These are tipsters we have tested ourselves under live trial conditions and verified their results.

For each sport below there are numerous high quality tipsters:

So that’s a good number of first-rate, verified tipsters who have proven their ability to beat the bookies over an extended period.

However, turning to AI we have only come across one service so far – in any sport – that has produced positive results and that is football AI prediction platform Predictology.

As we remarked when looking at the Best AI Football Predictions, there are a large number of AI prediction websites out there but very few have published their results – let alone had those results verified. 

It is therefore very difficult to know if they are any good or not. You would think if they were profitable though, they would be very keen to publish their results.  

So the reality is there is a huge amount of work to do for AI to do to catch up with expert tipsters. 

Perhaps one day it will do so, but for the time being human tipsters clearly still rule the roost.  

AI Sports Prediction Pros and Cons

Pros:

  • Objectivity: AI is bias free, it makes predictions based on data only.
  • Data Processing Power: AI can process huge amounts of data in real time to make informed predictions.
  • Consistency: AI doesn’t get tired or distracted, it can perform at the same level consistently.

Cons:

  • Lack of Intuition: AI can’t factor in team morale or psychological factors. 
  • Algorithmic Bias: AI systems can develop bias based on the data they are trained on.
  • Historical Data: AI is heavily reliant on past data, it can’t predict the unexpected.

Human Tipster Strengths and Weaknesses

Pros:

  • Proven results: There are numerous tipsters with verified, profitable long-term records.
  • Intuition: Human tipsters can make judgement calls based on experience and the human element to betting.
  • Adaptability: Tipsters can adjust predictions based on new information in real time.
  • Understanding of Intangibles: Human experts can factor in psychological and emotional aspects that AI might miss.

Cons:

  • Emotional Bias: Human predictions can be influenced by personal preferences or bias.
  • Limited Data Processing: Humans can’t process as much data as AI, potential blind spots.
  • Inconsistency: Tipsters have good and bad days and can be affected emotionally by losing runs, potentially impacting the quality of their tips.

AI in the Sports Betting Industry

AI is slowly starting to change the sports betting landscape. AI powered odds calculation is becoming more prevalent, with bookies using it to produce more accurate odds.

Sports betting algorithm development has also led to new AI driven platforms that offer bettors real time betting recommendations based on continuously updated data.

Platforms like Predictology for example use AI and machine learning to provide detailed predictions and betting insights.

It utilises a database of over 350,000 football matches worldwide to create and refine football strategies.

From this dataset the AI is able to produce football predictions which are provided to members. 

This is one of the few examples we have come across so far of AI sports predictions that actually appear to be effective. 

If AI models like this can be developed and improved upon further, then they have the potential to change how bettors approach their betting. 

However, for the time being the jury is still out on whether AI can challenge the skills of expert tipsters. 

Hybrid Prediction Models: A Future Option?

Rather than choosing between AI or human tipsters, the future may be a hybrid approach that combines the best of both.

AI assisted tipster services are already emerging where human experts use AI tools to enhance their predictions.

Hybrid prediction models can offer bettors a more complete view of upcoming games: AI’s data driven insights, plus human intuition.

As AI sports prediction platforms evolve we may see more human tipsters and AI systems working together to produce more effective predictions.

AI Sports Prediction Ethics

As with any new technology there are ethical considerations. Transparency in AI decision making is key to fair play and to prevent manipulation.

Bettors need to know how predictions are made and if there is any bias in the algorithms.

Another concern is the impact on traditional tipsters. As AI gets better human experts could be displaced.

But by using AI as a tool rather than a competitor tipsters could potentially enhance their own services and stay relevant in the changing betting landscape.

Summary – AI vs. Sports Tipsters

While AI has made significant strides in the world of sports prediction, it’s clear that human tipsters are still leading the way.

AI brings impressive data-crunching abilities and can process vast amounts of information in real time, but it lacks the intuition and adaptability that expert tipsters provide.

The future might lie in a hybrid approach, combining the analytical power of AI with the human touch to deliver even better predictions.

For now, though, tipsters remain the go-to choice for consistent, reliable advice in sports betting.

 

 

Under 2.0 Goals in Football Betting: What Does “Under 2” Mean?

Football betting has many markets to suit different strategies and tastes.

One of the most popular among those who like low scoring matches is the “under 2.0” bet.

But what does this mean and how can you use it in your betting strategy?

In this article we will go deep into the under 2 meaning and explore strategies for under 2 goals betting.

 

What is Under 2?

At its simplest, betting on “under 2.0” means you are predicting fewer than 2 goals will be scored in a football match.

This is a low scoring market for matches where defensive tactics or weather conditions will limit goal scoring opportunities.

But under 2 means more than just fewer than 2 goals.

Its exact meaning is as follows:-

  • If a match ends with two goals scored, your bet is a push. In this case your stake is refunded as neither the over nor under bet has won.
  • If the match finishes 0-0, 1-0 or 0-1 your bet wins.
  • If 3 or more goals are scored your bet loses.

Here is a table summarising how the under 2.0 bet works: 

Match Outcome Under 2.0 Bet Result
0-0, 1-0 or 0-1 Win
2-0, 0-2, 1-1 Push (stake returned)
2-1, 3-0, 3-1, etc Loss

So it’s pretty straightforward – ultimately you are hoping for one goal or less to be scored if backing under 2.0 goals, but if there are two goals you get your money back.

 

Real-Life Examples of Under 2.0 goals

Let’s say there’s a Premier League match between Liverpool and Man City.

If you bet on “under 2” and the score is 1-0, you win your bet.

But if the score is 2-0 or 1-1 your stake is refunded – referred to as a “push.” 

The under 2.0 goals bet is often used in matches where both teams play defensive football and don’t tend to concede – or score – many goals.

 

Under 2.0 vs Under 2.5

One of the common mistakes among newbies is the difference between under 2.0 goals and under 2.5 goals.

The main difference is that with under 2.5 goals you can win if the match ends with two goals, while under 2.0 goals means if the match ends with two goals your bet is a push.

Here is the difference between the two in table format:

Criteria Under 2.0 Goals Under 2.5 Goals
Winning Outcome 0-0, 1-0, or 0-1 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 2-0, 0-2, 1-1
Push (stake returned) 2-0, 0-2, 1-1 N/A
Losing Outcome 1-2, 3-0, 2-1, etc 2-1, 3-0, 1-2, etc

So the under 2.5 goals is a safer option in that it pays as a winner if the match ends 2-0, 0-2 or 1-1 for example, but the odds will be lower on under 2.5 goals to reflect that. 

 

Typical Odds for Under 2.0 Goals Bet

The odds for an under 2.0 goals bet will typically be at odds-against. 

For example, in a match between England and Greece, the odds for under 2.0 goals is 3.0 (odds from the Betfair Exchange by clicking on the “Goal Lines” market and using the arrows to navigate up and down).

That compares to odds of 1.97 for under 2.5 goals and odds of 4.1 for the under 1.5 goals.

So in summary for the England v Greece match that’s:

  • Under 1.5 goals: 4.1
  • Under 2.0 goals: 3.0
  • Under 2.5 goals: 1.97

 

Find out who the Top 10 Football Tipsters in the World are here.

 

Under 2.0 Goals Mechanics

Understanding how under 2.0 goals betting works from a technical standpoint is key to making informed decisions and improving your chances of success.

Let’s break down how this type of bet functions and how bookmakers calculate the odds.

How Bookmakers Set Odds for Under 2 Goals

The odds for under 2.0 goals are set based on many factors like goal expectancy in football matches, team form and tactics.

For example bookmakers will look at whether teams are defensively minded, their recent head-to-head results or if the weather will affect scoring.

Teams with strong defences or poor attacking form will have lower odds for under 2.0 goals.

Push Scenarios in Under 2

As we mentioned earlier a push occurs if the match ends with two goals.

For many this is a safety net as you won’t lose your stake.

Push scenarios in sports betting are common and understanding them can help you make better decisions when choosing your bet types.

 

Strategies for Under 2.0 Goals Betting

To consistently profit from under 2.0 goals betting, it’s important to employ well-thought-out strategies.

Let’s look at some specific strategies for betting on under 2.0 goals now. 

Scoring Stats

Ultimately what you’re looking for is matches which have a good chance of being low scoring and teams who tend to be involved in a lot of 0-0 and 1-0 matches, with the occasional 1-1 or 2-0. 

What you are trying to avoid is teams who are involved in a lot of games with three or more goals.

So taking some time to look at teams’ recent scores and singling out those with a lot of low scores is advisable when looking at possible under 2.0 bets.

Team Formations and Defensive Tactics

When betting under 2.0 goals you need to consider team formations and their style of play.

Teams that play with defensive formations like 5-4-1 or 4-5-1 can often produce low scoring football matches, if they are set up to play in a possession-based or defensive manner.

Also, how teams adapt to their opponents can give you valuable information.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Head-to-head statistics are a must in betting.

Some teams may have a history of low scoring matches when they play each other even though they score plenty of goals in the league.

Analysing these patterns can help you determine if the match will be a low scoring one.

Weather and Its Impact on Goal Scoring

Weather can affect the pace and quality of a football match.

Wet or windy conditions can hinder attacking play and make low scoring matches more likely.

Always check the weather before betting under 2.0 goals.

Recent Form and Goal Scoring Trends

Teams in poor form or in a scoring drought are perfect for under 2.0 goals betting.

By looking at recent form analysis for football betting you can see how a team is doing and adjust your strategy accordingly.

 

Check out this top football tipster with over 200 points profit made, fully verified. 

 

Advanced Under 2.0 Goals Betting

For more experienced bettors, there are advanced techniques that can further enhance your success with under 2.0 goals betting.

By leveraging in-play opportunities, statistical models, and combining markets, you can take your betting strategy to the next level.

In-Play Strategies

In-play under 2 goals betting is exciting especially when you’ve determined the tempo of the match early on.

If teams are playing defensively there can be value in backing under 2 goals, particularly if it was not expected to be a defensive game at the outset.

Tools like the In Play Scanner can be really useful in alerting you to whether there are chances being created in a game and goals are likely.

It rates matches according to how many actions such as attacks, corners and shots are happening.

When a rating is below a certain level, it means there aren’t many chances being created and a goal is not very likely to be scored in the game. 

We tested the scanner out over a three-month trial, and it made £632 in profit based on the alerts sent out.

Alternatively you can watch a game live and decide for yourself whether it is being played in a cautious manner and heading towards a low-scoring outcome.

Either way, in-play betting allows you to see the flow of a game live and can therefore be a better way to utilise the under 2.0 goals market than betting before kick-off.   

Under 2 Bets with Other Markets

You can increase your returns by combining under 2 bets with other markets like Asian handicap or halftime/full-time.

For example, combining an under 2 bet with predicting the match result or betting on a draw can allow you to hedge your risks or be used in trading scenarios. 

Statistical Models and Predictions

Advanced bettors use statistical models for football predictions to analyse data from sites like Predictology such as goal scoring trends, team form and other factors.

These models can be very useful in finding value in under 2 goals market.

 

Pros and Cons of Under 2.0 Goals Betting

Like any football betting market, under 2.0 goals has its advantages and drawbacks.

Let’s take a closer look at both sides to give you a better understanding of whether this bet type suits your betting style and risk appetite.

Pros of Under 2.0 Goals Betting

The pros of under 2 betting include:

  1. Safer Option with the Push Outcome
    One of the main benefits of betting on under 2.0 goals is the “push” scenario. If the match ends with exactly two goals, you get your stake refunded. This safety net reduces the overall risk compared to markets like under 1.5 goals, where two goals would still result in a loss.
  2. Useful for Low-Scoring Matches
    Under 2.0 goals betting is ideal when two teams with strong defences or poor attacking records face each other. If you’ve analysed the match and expect a tight, low-scoring affair, this market can provide excellent value. Teams known for grinding out 0-0 or 1-0 results are prime candidates for this type of bet.
  3. Works Well with Certain Leagues
    Some football leagues are known for having fewer goals scored on average. For example, certain European leagues, including Ligue 1 in France and La Liga in Spain, tend to have lower scoring matches compared to more attack-heavy leagues like the Premier League. By focusing on these leagues, under 2.0 goals betting can become a key part of your strategy.
  4. Fits Defensive Strategies
    If you’re following teams that employ defensive tactics, such as parking the bus or focusing on counter-attacks, under 2.0 goals is a great market to consider. Analysing formations and defensive football strategies can help you identify games where fewer goals are likely to be scored.

Cons of Under 2.0 Goals Betting

Whilst the cons of under 2 bets include:

  1. Limited Profit Potential
    One downside to betting on under 2.0 goals is the relatively limited profit potential. Because of the lower-risk nature of the bet, the odds are usually shorter than other markets like under 1.5 goals. This means you need to place larger stakes or win consistently to make significant profits.
  2. Vulnerable to Late Goals
    The under 2.0 goals market can often be undone by a single late goal. Matches that look like they’ll finish 1-0 can quickly change in injury time, resulting in your bet losing or turning into a push. Injury time is particularly dangerous in football betting, as it often leads to unexpected goals.
  3. Requires Detailed Analysis
    Success in under 2.0 goals betting depends heavily on in-depth analysis. You’ll need to look at team tactics, form, head-to-head records, and even weather impact on football scoring. Without proper research, you might find yourself placing bets on matches that are more open than expected.
  4. Can Be Too Conservative for Some Bettors
    For those who enjoy riskier, higher-reward bets, under 2.0 goals may feel too conservative. The likelihood of receiving your stake back in a push is higher compared to other markets, which can result in lower excitement and slower bankroll growth. If you’re looking for bigger returns, this market may not be for you.

In summary, under 2.0 goals betting is a solid option for those who prefer a more cautious approach and enjoy betting on low-scoring football matches.

However, it’s important to consider the potential limitations, such as shorter odds and the risk of late goals, before committing to this market.


Under 2 Bets as Part of a Bigger Strategy

Under 2 goals betting can be part of a bigger football betting strategy.

You can combine it with 0-0 or 1-0 bets or other markets like draws or Asian handicaps so you have flexibility in how you approach each match.

Bankroll Management

Like any bet, you need to practice good bankroll management in sports betting when betting under 2.0 goals.

Low scoring markets may seem safer but putting too much of your bankroll on one outcome can still lead to big losses.

Always bet with a plan and stake accordingly.

 

Conclusion – Using Under 2 to Take Advantage of Low-Scoring Matches

Betting on under 2.0 goals can be a smart strategy for those looking to take advantage of low-scoring football matches.

With the potential safety net of a push and the right analytical approach, it offers a way to minimise risk while still making steady profits.

However, it’s important to weigh up the lower odds and potential for late goals before diving in.

Whether you’re a cautious bettor or just looking to expand your options, under 2.0 goals betting can be a valuable addition to your football betting toolkit.

Whether you bet on under 2 goals or other markets, good luck with your betting and please remember to always gamble responsibly. 

 

 

Understanding Sports Tipster ROI: What Makes a Good Return?

When looking at sports tipsters you need to consider ROI – Return on Investment.

It tells you if following a tipster is worth the effort, risk and money involved. But how do you calculate ROI and what is a good return in the world of sports tipping?

This guide will go into the details of sports tipster ROI and give you tips on how to calculate it and avoid the mistakes.

In sports betting ROI means “Return on Investment” and it measures how much profit you’ve made against how much you’ve staked.

It’s a key indicator of tipster performance and one of the most important metrics for anyone serious about long term betting success.

Definition of ROI in sports betting

At its simplest sports tipster ROI is the percentage return you get from your total stakes over time.

It allows you to compare tipsters by showing the profit (or loss) you can expect to make for every pound staked.

For example a 10% ROI means for every £100 staked you’d have made £10 in profit.

Why ROI is important

ROI is important because it goes beyond win-loss records.

A tipster might have a high win rate but be unprofitable if their tips are on short priced favourites with little value.

A tipster with a lower win rate could have a higher ROI by tipping at higher odds and making long term profitability more achievable.

How ROI differs from simple win-loss records

Win-loss records (also known as “win rate” or “strike rate”) tell you how often a tipster gets it right but don’t show the overall profitability of their tips.

ROI shows you the full picture of tipster performance. It’s about the betting returns not just the number of correct tips.

It’s all about quality not quantity.

ROI and long-term betting success

Over time a positive ROI is a sign of profitable sports tipping.

Inconsistent or negative ROI means a tipster may not have an edge over the market and sticking with them will erode your betting bankroll.

Ultimately, consistent ROI over a large sample size is the foundation of any long-term betting strategy.

How to calculate Sports Tipster ROI: A Step by Step Guide

Now you know what ROI is, let’s get into how to calculate it.

The formula is pretty simple:

ROI (%) = (Total Profit / Total Stakes) x 100

For example if you’ve made a total profit of £500 from total stakes of £5,000 your ROI would be:

£500 / £5,000 x 100 = 10%

Stake sizes and odds

When calculating ROI you need to factor in stake sizes and odds.

Some tipsters recommend level stakes, others recommend different staking strategies based on confidence levels.

This is why ROI is a useful metric – it tells you the return taking all stakes into account, whether the tipster bets at level stakes, variable staking or otherwise. 

What is a Good ROI in Sports Tipping?

What is a good ROI?

The answer depends on the sport, bet type and win rate.

In sports like golf and horse racing, where the win rate is typically lower (around 10-20%), top tipsters can achieve impressive ROIs of 20% or even 30% over time.

Tipsters with higher win rates generally show much lower ROIs.

For example, a tennis or football tipster with a 50% win rate might only achieve an ROI of 5-10%.

If a tipster has a win rate over 50%, it would be extremely rare to see an ROI of more than 20-30% over a decent sample size of bets. 

While these numbers may be possible in the short term (say a few months or possibly even up to a year), they are very hard to sustain over longer periods.

The reason is that with shorter odds, there’s typically less room for significant value in the bets.

For instance, a horse racing tipster might find a horse priced at 33/1 that should actually be 25/1.

This offers a notable edge – or expected value – over the bookmakers.

On the other hand, a football tipster betting on lower odds would be fortunate to find a small edge, like spotting a team priced at 2.3 when it should be 2.14.

That smaller margin usually leads to a lower ROI over time.

The typical ROI and win rate metrics tend to vary by sport, but are often approximately as follows:

Sport Typical Win Rates Top Tipsters’ long-term ROI
Football 50% or higher 5-10%
Golf 10-20% 20-30%
Tennis 30-50% 5-10%
Horse Racing 15-35%  15-30% 
 Cricket 30-50%  10-15% 

So really ROI needs to be seen in context of the sport and win rate – and other metrics, as we will discuss below – rather than in isolation. 

Considering ROI Alongside Other Metrics

While ROI is an important metric in evaluating a tipster’s performance, it should never be considered in isolation.

To get a true picture of how successful a tipster is, you need to look at several other key metrics that work together to give a complete overview of their performance.

  1. Win Rate: The win rate is crucial to understanding the context of ROI. As discussed above, a high ROI with a low win rate might suggest the tipster is targeting long odds, which can lead to bigger wins but fewer of them. Conversely, a tipster with a high win rate but low ROI may be betting on favorites with shorter odds. The relationship between ROI and win rate is usually inversely proportional – the higher one is, the lower the other will be. 
  2. Overall Profit/Loss: ROI tells you how efficient a tipster is in making returns relative to stakes, but the overall profit and loss (P/L) shows the total financial impact of their tips. A tipster with a high ROI but a small profit may not be as valuable as one with a lower ROI but a much higher overall profit due to a higher win rate and higher volume of bets.
  3. Bet Volume: The number of bets a tipster places is critical to understanding their ROI. A tipster with a high ROI but a low bet volume might not offer enough opportunities to generate consistent profits. On the other hand, a tipster with a high volume but lower ROI can still produce significant profits over time because they place many more bets and can therefore grow the bank.
  4. Bank Growth (Return on Capital): Another important measure is how much a tipster grows their betting bank over time, which is effectively their return on capital. This shows how well a tipster compounds profits and manages their bankroll. A tipster with steady bank growth is likely to be using a sustainable staking plan that balances risk and reward.
  5. Consistency: The percentage of winning months a tipster has is an important indicator of consistency. A tipster with a high ROI but only a few profitable months may provide a more erratic betting experience. In contrast, a tipster with a solid percentage of winning months (e.g., 60-70%) is more likely to offer steady, reliable profits. Consistency is key in helping you ride out the inevitable downswings and maintain confidence in the tipster’s long-term success.
  6. Closing Line Value (CLV): CLV is a measure of how often the odds a tipster bets at are better than the final odds (closing line). If a tipster consistently beats the closing line, it suggests they have a genuine edge over the market. ROI might fluctuate over time, but consistent CLV indicates that the tipster is making good value bets that should, over time, lead to long-term profitability.

Each of these metrics interacts with ROI to provide a more rounded assessment of a tipster’s performance.

For example, a tipster with a moderate ROI but strong CLV and steady bank growth is likely to be more reliable than one with a higher ROI but poor CLV and erratic bank growth.

Understanding how these factors work together is key to evaluating the long-term value of following a particular tipster.

That’s why our reviews consider all these factors together holistically in determining a tipster’s rating rather than viewing a factor such as ROI in isolation.   

A high ROI in itself – whilst obviously being a good thing – is not necessarily proof of a top tipster.

If it’s accompanied by good all-around metrics like strong bank growth, consistent profits, and a solid win rate, it becomes a much stronger indicator of a top quality tipster. 

 

Example of Tipsters with Good All-Around Metrics

Let’s take a look at a couple of examples of tipsters with good all-around metrics. 

Example 1: Horse Racing Tipster with 31% ROI

First up is Hanbury Racing, a horse racing tipster with a very good long-term ROI of 31%

As we say though, this needs to be considered in context of the other metrics. Do those stack up or does the service just have a good ROI? 

Well, the ROI has been accompanied by a solid win rate of 22% and excellent long-term profit of over 1,500 points made. 

Bet volume is sound with around 2-3 bets per day on average, meaning the bank can keep ticking along.

Bank growth has been stellar at over 700% since the service started.

Hanbury Racing targets longshots so the consistency can be a little up and down, with for example slightly less than half of the months in 2024 being profitable ones. 

However, taken as a whole these represent first class metrics and the ROI stacks up very well when taken in context with the other stats. 

Example 2: Football Tipster with 10% ROI

Another example is a football tipster called Scottish Confidential with a lower ROI of 10%. How does that stack up against its other metrics though?

Interestingly the lower ROI is correlated with a much higher win rate, of 43%

That means it is backing at much lower odds than Hanbury Racing for example but is still able to find value. 

The overall profits are strong too at just over 200 points made. 

The bet volume is reasonable with around 15 bets per week

Bank growth hasn’t been quite as impressive as Hanbury Racing but is still formidable at over 400%.

Consistency is good too, with a high proportion of winnings months, although they did struggle a little back in 2021. 

Taken as a whole though these are strong stats and it illustrates the point about a high win rate usually correlating with a lower ROI – but that taken together this can still mean very good overall profit.

Example 3: Horse Racing Tipster with 8% ROI

Thirdly we have a horse racing tipster called Racing Rundown with an 8% ROI.

That has been accompanied by a win rate of 24%, which is solid enough but somewhat below the rate achieved by Scottish Confidential for example. 

The overall profits have been good, with 293 points made to date. 

Bet volume is sound at around 2 bets per day on average. 

Consistency is reasonable but they have been a little up and down, with around 60% winning months so far. 

The overall bank growth is slightly over 100% so far. 

Overall these are good stats, but you can see that despite having a pretty similar ROI to Scottish Confidential, when taken in context of the overall metrics it doesn’t quite measure up to the football service. 

This illustrates the importance of considering ROI in the overall context of performance metrics rather than just in isolation.  

 

ROI by Bet Type

Not all bets are created equal – and neither is their ROI.

The type of bet a tipster recommends can have a big impact on their ROI.

So it’s worth understanding how these bets work.

For example singles are the bread and butter of most professional tipsters.

They’re simple: you back a single outcome and your ROI is a direct reflection of the value in those bets. If a tipster consistently finds value, the ROI can increase over time

On the other hand accumulators (or parlays) are riskier.

These are bets where multiple selections are combined into one bet.

Yes the payouts can be much higher but they come with a catch – all your selections have to win.

A tipster who uses accumulators might have a lower win rate but a high ROI because of the bigger odds. But this can also lead to more volatility in their results.

Then there are value bets where tipsters identify odds they think are mispriced by the bookies.

These bets are often low margin, meaning the ROI will be low but value bettors look to turn over a large number of bets to generate their profits. 

In the end understanding how different bet types impact ROI can help you choose a tipster that fits your betting style.

Whether you like a steady low risk approach or a more adventurous one with bigger payoffs the type of bet has a big impact on ROI.

Variance and ROI

One thing that gets overlooked in sports betting is variance – and boy does it matter!

Variance is the natural ups and downs you get when betting and it can kill your ROI in the short term.

Let’s say you’re following a tipster who focuses on longshots. They might have a lower win rate because the odds they’re targeting are much higher – but that doesn’t mean they’re not good at what they do.

You could go through a long losing streak and see your ROI drop and then a few big wins turn it all around.

On the other hand a tipster backing short priced favourites might have more frequent wins but those small profits can be wiped out by a few losses.

That’s why understanding variance is key. It helps you stay calm during the rough patches and not get carried away with a short term spike in ROI.

In short variance is part of the game and patience is key when evaluating a tipster’s long term performance.

Chasing High ROI

We’ve all heard the phrase “if it sounds too good to be true it probably is.”

The same applies to sports betting ROI. A tipster claiming 50%, 70% or more ROI may grab your attention but be careful – there’s usually a catch.

Tipsters claiming astronomical ROIs can sometimes manipulate the numbers, cherry pick their best results or omit losing bets from their record. In short, they may be scam tipsters.

While it’s possible to get a high ROI in the short term (thanks to variance) it’s incredibly difficult to sustain it over a large number of bets.

So what’s the risk of chasing these numbers? The danger is unrealistic expectations.

If you’re tempted by the big returns you might end up staking more than you can afford, taking unnecessary risks or jumping from one service to another in search of those big gains.

Remember consistency is key. A tipster with a smaller but steady ROI is a much safer bet in the long run than one making outlandish claims.

Betting Bank Management and ROI

Your betting bank – or bankroll – is the lifeblood of your betting journey.

Managing it properly is key to staying in the game and that’s where ROI comes in.

ROI gives you an idea of how much profit you can expect from each bet in relation to your stakes but how you manage your bank can increase or decrease those returns.

The best tipsters often recommend a staking plan that matches their ROI.

For example if a tipster has a lower ROI but higher win rate they might recommend staking a bigger portion of your bank to take advantage of more frequent wins.

But don’t get too carried away. Over staking – especially when chasing high ROI – can quickly drain your bank during a losing streak.

That’s why many experienced bettors use methods like the Kelly Criterion which calculates the optimal stake based on the edge and bankroll size.

This way you’re taking value without putting your whole bank at risk.

In short managing your bankroll in line with the ROI and betting strategy is key to long-term success.

Sample size in ROI calculations

A larger sample size gives a more accurate picture of a tipster’s performance.

A small sample can distort the results especially if the tipster gets lucky early on.

In our reviews we always aim to track at least 100 tips before making any conclusions about a tipster’s ROI.

Really though to get a statistically significant view of a tipster’s ROI you would need hundreds of bets, preferably over 1,000. 

Conclusion – Sports Tipster ROI 

So what have we learned about sports tipster ROI? Here are the key points:

  • ROI is important but it’s just one piece of the puzzle. Look at it alongside other metrics like win rate, profit/loss, bet volume and bank growth to get a full picture of a tipster’s performance.
  • Bet type matters. Singles, accumulators and value bets all impact ROI differently so understanding what a tipster specialises in can help you manage your expectations.
  • Variance plays a big part in short term ROI fluctuations. Be patient and don’t let short term results – good or bad – affect your long-term outlook.
  • Don’t chase high ROI. If a tipster is promising big returns take a step back and look at their long-term record.
  • Manage your bank wisely. Use a staking plan that matches the tipster’s strategy and your own risk tolerance to protect your bankroll over the long term.

Now you’re ready to follow tipsters who deliver not just big numbers but real long-term value.

Long-term profitability is the goal and understanding ROI is the first step.

Hopefully this article has given you a good overview of how ROI works and how to utilise it in your betting. 

Please remember to always gamble responsibly and good luck with your betting! 

 

 

footballer mid air kick

Over 1.0 Goals in Football Betting: What Does “Over 1” Mean?

Football has lots of markets and sometimes they can be confusing if you’re new to it.

One of those markets is the “over 1” bet and it leaves many punters scratching their heads.

So what does “over 1” mean in football betting and how can you use this market to your advantage?

In this guide we’ll break down the “over 1” bet, explain how it works and give you some expert tips on how to make the most of this betting option.

What is Over 1 in Football Betting?

The “over 1” bet is an over/under bet in football that’s focused on the total number of goals in the match.

When you bet on “over 1” you’re saying the total number of goals scored in match will be over 1.

If 1 goal is scored your stake is refunded. If more than 1 goal is scored you win the bet.

Here is a table summarising how the over 1.0 bet works:

Match Outcome Over 1.0 Bet Result
0-0 Loss
1-0 or 0-1 Push (stake returned)
1-1, 2-0, 2-1, etc Win

The “over 1 goal” market can be a lower risk option than betting on higher goal lines.

It’s especially effective in matches where you think there will be some goals but want the safety of a refund if only 1 goal is scored.

Over 1 vs Over 1.5

One important thing to note is the difference between the “over 1 goals” and “over 1.5 goals” markets.

Both bets are focused on the total goals scored in a match but the key difference is what happens if exactly 1 goal is scored.

With an “over 1” bet a single goal is a push or refund but with “over 1.5” if 1 goal is scored your bet loses.

This small difference makes the “over 1” bet a safer option for the cautious punter.

The difference between over 1.0 goals and over 1.5 goals can be summarised as follows:-

Criteria Over 1.0 Goals Over 1.5 Goals
Winning Outcome 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, etc 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, etc
Push (stake returned) 1-0 or 0-1 N/A
Losing Outcome 0-0 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

 

Typical Odds for Over 1.0 Goals Bet

The odds for an over 1.0 goals bet tend to typically be quite low. 

For example, in a match between Aston Villa and Manchester Utd in the Premier League, the odds for over 1.0 goals is 1.13 (odds from the Betfair Exchange).

That compares to odds of 1.19 for over 1.5 goals and odds of 1.04 for the over 0.5 goals.

In summary then the odds for these goals markets in this match are:

  • Over 0.5 goals: 1.04
  • Over 1 goals: 1.13
  • Over 1.5 goals: 1.19

So the lower odds for over 1.0 goals reflect that this is a slightly safer option than the over 1.5 goals bet for example.

 

👉 Check out our top recommended over under tipster here.

 

Real-Life Examples of Over 1

Let’s say there’s a Premier League match between Arsenal and Tottenham.

If you bet on “over 1” and the score is 1-0 your bet is refunded.

But if the score is 2-0 or 1-1 you win the bet since more than 1 goal was scored.

The over 1.0 goals bet is often used in matches where both teams play open football and can score at least once.

How Does Over 1 Work?

So in summary, how does an “over 1” bet work? Let’s break it down step by step.

Step-by-Step Breakdown:

  1. Place Your Bet: You bet on a football match that there will be more than 1 goal scored.
  2. Possible Outcomes:
    • 0 goals scored: You lose the bet.
    • 1 goal scored: Your stake is refunded (push).
    • 2 or more goals scored: You win the bet.

Payout

Payout on an “over 1” bet is determined by the bookmaker’s odds.

For example if the odds are 1.15 and you bet £10 you would win £1.50 if more than 1 goal is scored.

Compared to Other Over/Under Bets

Compared to higher goal lines like “over 1.5” or “over 2.5” the “over 1” bet is safer since you get your money back if 1 goal is scored.

However the odds will be lower due to this safety net, as we have seen in the example of Aston Villa vs Man Utd above.

Benefits of Betting on Over 1 Goals

There are various benefits to backing over 1 goals, in addition to the lower risk compared to higher goal lines.

High Win Rate

One of the major benefits of betting on over 1.0 goals is the relatively high win rate compared to more aggressive goal markets like over 2.5 or over 3.5 goals.

Since you’re only relying on at least one goal to avoid a loss and even a single goal results in a refund, the win rates can be as high as 80% or more, depending on the match. 

Cheering On Goals

Another enjoyable aspect of betting on over 1.0 goals is the excitement it brings while watching a match.

Unlike some betting markets, where a slow, low-scoring game might still be beneficial, here you’re actively rooting for goals to be scored, regardless of which teams scores them.

Every time the ball hits the back of the net, you know you’re closer to a win, adding to the fun and engagement.

Flexibility in Betting

This bet type is flexible. You can use it in accumulators or live betting where the flow of the game may present good opportunities to back over 1.0 goals at higher odds than at the start – something we will delve into further below.

 

Check out this top football tipster with over 200 points profit made, fully verified. 

 

Strategies for Betting on “Over 1.0 Goals” 

When it comes to over 1.0 goals the key is to find teams and matches where at least one goal may be scored but not a goal fest.

This will give you better value for your bets. 

The beauty of this market is it has a built-in safety net – if only one goal is scored your stake is refunded so you don’t lose your whole bet.

1. Target Teams with Consistent Scorers

The first step of this strategy is to target teams that score regularly but not necessarily high scoring teams.

These teams might not score 3 or 4 goals but they can score at least one. Look for teams that are solid in attack but not prolific.

For example a team that scores 1.2 to 1.5 goals per game can be a good target for an over 1.0 bet.

These types of teams will present much better value than backing teams that are obviously high scoring like Bayern Munich or Man City. 

2. Opponent’s Defensive Weakness

Another factor to consider is the opponent’s defence.

If a team has a porous defence or concedes early goals then the chances of at least one goal being scored increase.

Teams that concede 1 or 2 goals per game create the perfect scenario for an over 1.0 goals bet where you’re hoping for at least one goal but prepared for a low scoring match.

3. Balanced Matches

Balanced matches where both teams are evenly matched can be good for over 1.0 goals bets.

In these games each team will create chances and score at least one goal but neither team will dominate the match.

A typical scenario is a 1-1 draw or a narrow win which means you can win your bet or get your stake back if one goal is scored.

4. Historical and Current Form

Historical and current form is key to making smart decisions on this market.

Look at their recent goal scoring trends—teams that score and concede regularly are the best for over 1.0 goals bets.

Also look at head to head records as some teams have a habit of producing tight low scoring games against certain opponents, while producing more open and goal friendly matches against other opponents.

5. Team News and Injuries

Key injuries especially to attacking players or defenders can have a big impact on whether goals will be scored.

If a team’s top scorer is out they may struggle to score so the bet becomes riskier.

If a team is missing key defenders then this can increase the chances of goals being conceded so the over 1.0 goals bet becomes more appealing.

6. Live Betting: Adjust as the Game Unfolds

If you’re watching the game live you can adjust your over 1.0 goals bet as the match unfolds.

If both teams are creating chances but haven’t scored yet then this might be the time to get in.

Tools like the In Play Scanner can be really useful in alerting you to instances where lots of chances are being created and a goal is likely to be scored.

It rates matches according to how many actions such as attacks, corners and shots are happening

When a rating hits a certain level (70 for example) it means a goal is likely to be scored and an alert will be sent.

We tested the scanner out over a three-month trial, and it made £632 in profit based on the alerts sent out.

One of the benefits of live betting is it allows you to take advantage of better odds if the game starts slowly but you think goals will come later.

7. Spread Across Leagues

Some leagues are more goal friendly than others.

For example the Bundesliga or Serie A tend to be more goal happy while Ligue 1 or La Liga are more tight and low scoring.

By spreading your over 1.0 goals bets across different leagues you can find more value in this market.

In short, the over 1.0 goals market allows you to bet on games where you think at least one goal will be scored and get a refund if one is.

By looking at balanced matches, team form and news and live betting you can gain an edge in this market.

Over 1 Mistakes

While the “over 1” bet is simple there are some common mistakes to avoid.

Misunderstanding the Bet

Many punters confuse “over 1” with “over 1.5”.

Remember “over 1” includes the option to get your money back if 1 goal is scored.

The market also only applies to goals scored in normal time (90 minutes). Any goals scored in extra time or in a penalty shootout do not count.  

Ignoring Key Match Stats

Relying on gut feeling can be risky.

Make sure to check the stats before you bet. Average goals per match for example and the strategies described above are better approaches than relying on gut instinct.

Overrating Favourite Teams

Just because a team is favourite doesn’t mean they will produce a high scoring game.

Be careful when betting on favourites in defensive matches.

Getting the Most Out of Over 1 Goals Bets

To get the most out of “over 1” bets, it’s important to remember to:

Research Teams and Matches

Before you bet make sure to research the teams. Look into their form, injuries and head-to-head records.

Use Statistical Tools

Tools like the in-play scanner and stats sites like soccerstats.com can help you make better decisions when betting “over 1.”

Manage Your Bankroll

Even with low risk bets like “over 1” you need to manage your bankroll.

Stick to a staking plan and don’t go chasing losses. 

Conclusion

The “over 1” bet is a great addition to any punter’s arsenal – a way to bet on goals in football matches with a bit of safety net.

By understanding the market, researching your bets and avoiding the mistakes listed above you will be better equipped than most punters when approaching over 1 goals bets.

Whether you want a standalone bet or to add to an accumulator, the “over 1” market is a flexible and can be a profitable football betting option with the right approach.

Find out who the Top 10 Football Tipsters in the World are here.

 

Outside Rides – Results Update

UPDATE – Please note this service has been put on hold. We will pause our review here and look to pick things up again if the service recommences. 

 

 

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Outside Rides – Results Update

5th August 2024

It continues to be somewhat of a struggle for horse racing service Outside Rides, with a loss of 28 points made to advised prices since our last update.

That means they are now 44 points down for our trial overall at advised prices.  

You can view full results here.

It’s a similar story at Betfair SP, with a loss of 29 points made since our last update and 52 points lost for our trial overall at BSP.

Just a reminder, this is service that is based on a theory around top jockeys and small yards. Tips are delivered via the Telegram app to be backed either with the bookies or on Betfair. 

A tough start so far but hopefully they can turn things around soon.  

 

 

 

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Outside Rides – Results Update

1st July 2024

It’s been a bit of a slow start to our trial of horse racing service Outside Rides, with a loss of 16 points made so far to advised prices. 

You can view full results here.

It’s a similar story at Betfair SP, with a loss of 23 points made for our trial to date.

Just a reminder, this is service that is based on a theory around top jockeys and small yards. Tips are delivered via the Telegram app to be backed either with the bookies or on Betfair. 

So not the ideal start here but still early days and plenty of time to turn things around.  

 

 

 

 

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Outside Rides – New Review

8th May 2024

We are starting a new trial today of a horse racing service called Outside Rides. 

This is a relatively new service that is based on a theory around top jockeys and small yards. 

The idea is that because small racing stables don’t get much access to top jockeys compared to the bigger, more wealthy stables, they offer those jockeys their best horses in an effort to secure their services over the long term. 

Outside Rides is focused on flat racing and has been live for just over a year now and has made a little over 50 points profit so far. 

That has come at a return on investment of around 8%, which is a solid enough return. 

At Betfair SP the results have been pretty decent too, with a profit of 38 points made to date at an ROI of just under 6%

Their backtested results look very impressive with a reported 1700 points profit made from the system.

However, we don’t normally put much store in backtested results as we have seen plenty of examples of backtested results that look great on paper but then when they go live fail to deliver the goods. Ultimately only live, proofed results carry any weight. 

Anyway, it looks like a promising service and we are always interested in new or innovative betting theories so let’s see how this one gets on under a live trial.

It operates on a “pay as you win” model which is good so no expensive subscription fees to pay if the service isn’t making a positive return. 

We’ll update results here as always so you can see how they are progressing. 

In the meantime you can check out Outside Rides for yourself here.

 

 

 

 

Lay the Draw – How to Profit in 2025

One of the most well-known football trading techniques is the “lay the draw” strategy.

While its exact origins are unclear, several traders have claimed credit for its creation.

This approach, which involves laying the draw on betting exchanges, appears to have emerged shortly after the launch of Betfair in 1999, gaining traction online in the early 2000s.

It became evident to many that when a goal was scored in a football match, the odds of a draw would often spike, sometimes quite significantly.

This presented an opportunity to lay the draw in a wide range of football matches, regardless of which team was favored to win, and then exit the trade for a profit once a goal was scored.

Over time, as the strategy became more popular, market reactions to goals became less pronounced, and the potential for profit gradually declined.

Today, it’s difficult to make consistent profits from laying the draw in football matches without conducting further research or refining your approach.

In fact, some traders now argue that “lay the draw is no longer effective” or dismiss it as an “amateur strategy.”

However, we believe otherwise; it can still be successful, but it requires more sophistication and expertise in today’s market to be profitable.

In the following section, we’ll explore three strategies that demonstrate how the lay the draw system remains a viable trading method in 2025.

 

What is Lay the Draw?

Definition and Basics of Draw Strategy

Lay the Draw is a popular football trading strategy that involves laying the draw on a betting exchange, such as Betfair.

This means betting against the draw, with the goal of profiting from the change in odds when a goal is scored.

The strategy is based on the fact that most football matches do not end in a draw, and that the odds on the draw will typically rise when a goal is scored.

This creates an opportunity for traders to lock in a profit by trading out of their position after a goal is scored.

In essence, the Lay the Draw strategy leverages the dynamic nature of football matches.

When a goal is scored, the likelihood of the match ending in a draw decreases, causing the draw odds to spike.

By laying the draw before the match and then backing it at higher odds after a goal, traders can secure a profit regardless of the final outcome of the match.

This approach requires a good understanding of football trading and the ability to react quickly to in-play events.

How Draw Odds Affect Trading

The draw odds play a crucial role in the Lay the Draw strategy.

Typically, the odds on the draw are higher than the odds on either team winning, as a draw is considered a less likely outcome.

However, these odds are not static; they fluctuate based on the events unfolding during the match.

When a goal is scored, the odds on the draw will rise, reflecting the decreased probability of the match ending in a draw.

For example, if you lay the draw at odds of 3.5 before the match and a goal is scored, the draw odds might jump to 5.0 or higher.

This increase in odds provides an opportunity to back the draw at the new, higher odds, thereby locking in a profit.

The key to successful draw trading lies in understanding these odds movements and timing your trades effectively.

By closely monitoring the match and using in-play stats, traders can make informed decisions about when to enter and exit their trades.

This approach not only maximizes profit potential but also helps manage risk, making the Lay the Draw strategy a viable option for football trading in 2025.

 

Strategy One – the Classic Lay the Draw Trade

The classic “lay the draw” strategy involves placing a lay bet against the draw before the match starts and then adjusting your position during the game based on the unfolding events.

Here’s an example of how this strategy can be applied in a straightforward trade:

Imagine a Champions League match between Leverkusen and Roma. Given the recent form of both teams and their scoring records, the expectation is that the match will see several goals.

Prior to the match beginning, the odds for laying the draw are set at 3.95.

 Lay the Draw - Leverkusen and Roma

So we click on the lay button (pink) at odds of 3.95 and place a £10 lay on the draw, giving us a liability of £29.50 if the game does finish in a draw (but we will trade out before the end in any event).

Now the game goes in-running and we await the first goal.

Boom! After 3 minutes, Leverkusen score to make it 1-0.

Now just look at what happens to the odds of the draw on Betfair:

Leverkusen and Roma - Odds on Betfair

The draw price has shot out to around 5.9 from their original price of 3.95.

That means we can lock in a guaranteed profit of £3.28 (which equates to 32.8% profit on our lay stake) by simply clicking on the “Cash Out” buttonEasy-peasy! 🙂

 

Get FREE football tips from top tipsters here

 

What Sort of Games to Use Classic Lay the Draw In

Applying the classic lay the draw strategy to all matches without discretion is an unwise approach and will likely lead to losses overall.

The reason is that the betting markets have become too efficient, eliminating any inherent edge in the strategy itself.

To achieve profitability with the classic lay the draw trade, it’s crucial to be selective and follow specific criteria.

Here are the three main criteria we focus on when choosing matches to execute this strategy:

Criteria One – Good Liquidity

The first important factor is ensuring there’s sufficient liquidity to allow us to exit our bet when a goal is scored.

Therefore, we prioritize matches where at least £30,000 has been matched in the match odds market on Betfair (or any other exchange you might use) before the kick-off.

For instance:

Lay the Draw - Maccabi Tel Aviv v Chelsea

In this game you will see that over £1.5m has been matched on the game before kick-off, which is excellent liquidity and means it will be a good game to trade from this point of view.

Criteria Two – High-Scoring Matches

The lay the draw strategy is most effective in matches where a high number of goals are anticipated. Therefore, it’s crucial to focus on games that are likely to be high-scoring when selecting matches for this strategy.

But how can you determine if a match is likely to have plenty of goals?

One method is to use websites like soccerstats.com to review statistics, such as the average number of goals both teams score and concede per game, as well as how frequently their matches end with more than two goals (i.e., over 2.5 goals).

For a quicker and simpler evaluation, you can also check the correct score market for the same match. This market can give you valuable insights into the expected goal-scoring.

Ideally, you want to find matches where the odds of a 0-0 result—and thus a losing trade—are higher than 15.0.

This suggests a less than 7% probability of the game ending without any goals, giving you a favorable outlook for a successful trade—specifically, over a 93% chance of success.

To assess this, simply look at the odds for the 0-0 scoreline in the correct score market.

Maccabi Tel Aviv v Chelsea - Looking at 0-0 odds

Here we see in the correct score market 0-0 is priced at 16.5 to back. This is a positive sign, suggesting that the match could be a strong candidate for executing the lay the draw strategy in.

Another important element of this strategy is to target matches where teams are likely to win decisively with high scores, such as 3-1 or 4-2.

Leagues like the Dutch and German ones are particularly known for these kinds of high-scoring games.

To master this strategy, it’s essential to dedicate time to researching and analyzing data from sources like soccerstats.com.

By identifying teams that frequently play in high-scoring matches, you can greatly enhance your chances of profiting from the lay the draw strategy. These are the matches that offer the most potential for success with this trading method.

Criteria Three – Matches Without a Strong Favourite

The types of games you select for the lay the draw strategy will partly depend on your risk tolerance.

Personally, we prefer to focus on matches where our initial liability isn’t too high.

As a result, we target matches where the draw is priced between 3.5 and 5.0 before kick-off. When the odds exceed 5.0, the liability begins to rise too much for our comfort.

For example:

Porto vs Dynamo Kiev

This is a relatively balanced match, as reflected by the draw odds of 3.75. These odds give us ample opportunity to trade if a goal is scored, particularly if the first goal comes from Porto.

Our decision to set a minimum draw odds threshold at 3.5 is based on the general difficulty of finding matches with odds lower than this when the 0-0 draw odds exceed 15.0.

In high-scoring games, the likelihood of a draw—especially a goalless one—decreases, which is partially reflected in the draw odds.

We aim to avoid rare scenarios where both teams might have a strong incentive to play for a draw.

For instance, this could occur in tournament settings where a draw would see both teams advance to the next round.

We also steer clear of matches that appear suspicious, such as those occasionally seen in Italian football, where draw odds are unusually low, sometimes around 2.0.

From our experience, when draw odds are suspiciously low, it’s wise to avoid those matches as they may be subject to irregularities or, at the very least, perceived manipulation.

On the other hand, we generally target matches where the draw odds are below 5.0, as this allows us to secure a profit or, at worst, minimize losses if a goal is scored.

When there is a strong favorite, a common scenario is that if the underdog scores first, the draw odds might actually decrease, putting your trade at a disadvantage.

This risk is more pronounced when the draw odds are above 4.0, which is why some traders prefer to limit their selections to matches with draw odds below 4.0.

However, we prefer to include matches where the draw odds are between 4.0 and 5.0, as long as we believe there’s a strong chance that the favorite will score first.

Even if the favorite doesn’t score first, we expect any losses to be manageable. That said, once draw odds exceed 5.0, the risk of significant losses increases if the underdog scores, making it a major concern.

Summary – Selecting Matches for the Classic Lay the Draw Strategy

To summarise then, these are the three criteria to focus on when selecting matches to trade the classic lay the draw strategy in. We focus on matches where:

  • Over £30,000 has been matched on the match odds market before kick-off;
  • The odds of the draw are between 3.5 and 5; and
  • The odds of 0-0 are 15.0 or above.

 

Strategy Two – Laying the Draw In-Play

The strategy mentioned above involves laying the draw before the match starts, which is the most common method of using this approach.

However, there’s an alternative method where you wait until the game is in play before entering a trade.

The benefit of this approach is that it allows you to observe how the game is unfolding before committing any money.

Deciding whether to engage in a trade during a football match depends on the game’s dynamics and your willingness to take on risk, allowing you to adjust based on how the action unfolds, which often deviates from pre-match expectations.

The timing of when to enter a trade is crucial and should align with your risk tolerance and preferred time frame. One effective approach is waiting until the later stages of the match.

The final 15 minutes are typically the most open, as teams push hard for a win.

Entering a trade during this period can be advantageous because the odds are usually lower, which reduces your liability compared to laying the draw at the start when odds might be 3.5 or higher.

Furthermore, key decisions and actions often hinge on the moments leading up to the final whistle, particularly when assessing the potential for scoring late in the game, which can significantly affect the outcome of trades.

If a goal is scored during this late stage, you can expect the draw odds to spike significantly, resulting in a larger profit on your trade.

To capitalise on late-game trading, it’s important to:

  • Monitor the flow of the match and assess the frequency of scoring opportunities.
  • Focus on teams known for scoring late goals, which you can identify using resources like soccerstats.

For example, consider this data from the 2020/21 Premier League season, highlighting goals scored and conceded by various teams at different stages of the match:

The data clearly shows significant variations in the number of goals scored and conceded by different teams during the final 15 minutes of their matches.

For example, Leicester City had a total of 33 goals in this period (23 scored and 10 conceded), while Newcastle saw 30 goals (15 scored and 15 conceded). In contrast, Arsenal had only 14 goals during the last 15 minutes of their games.

This data can help you identify which teams are worth focusing on, but the most precise approach is to watch the matches live.

Watching games in real-time allows you to discern which matches are wide open, with teams aggressively attacking and defenses becoming tired, versus those that are more subdued and leaning towards a draw.

This live observation provides valuable insights for executing lay the draw trades, and the more you watch with this perspective, the better you’ll be at spotting profitable opportunities.

If you don’t have the time to watch numerous matches live, you can use tools like those from Trade On Sports. They offer bots that analyze global leagues and extensive data to identify valuable late-goal opportunities.

In our own trial, one of these bots generated a notable profit of £5120, making this a practical option for traders looking to efficiently spot late-goal opportunities without the need for extensive live match observation.

Other times of the game

Your focus doesn’t have to be limited to just the last 15 minutes of a match; there are several moments throughout a game when the lay the draw strategy can be effectively applied.

For example, you might look at the chart above to identify teams that frequently score or concede goals just before half-time, a period known for its potential to produce goals.

Alternatively, the timing of your trade may depend on the specific dynamics of the match you’re watching. For instance, if you’re midway through the second half and observe a flurry of shots on goal, it might be an opportune moment to enter a trade.

As noted earlier, there’s no definitive “right” or “wrong” time to execute the trade.

The key to successful in-play lay the draw trading is to have a well-developed strategy that integrates statistical analysis with live match observation. This comprehensive approach enhances your chances of achieving consistent profitability.

 

Strategy Three – Laying the First Half or Second Half Draw

Another strategy for applying the lay the draw approach is to concentrate exclusively on one half of a football match, sometimes referred to the “half lay” strategy.

This method can help you stay focused and simultaneously reduce risk.

For example, if you decide to focus on the first half of the match, it would be more appropriate to use the Half Time market rather than the match odds market.

Consider this example from a World Cup qualifying match between the Netherlands and Norway:

While the draw odds for the entire match are relatively high at 4.5, the odds for a draw at half-time are around 2.48.

When using the lay the draw strategy in the Half-Time (HT) market, your potential liabilities are generally lower compared to the Match Odds market. However, it’s important to note that the probability of a draw (leading to a loss on your trade) is higher in this case.

If a goal is scored by either team in the first half, the odds for a Half-Time draw usually increase significantly, which creates an opportunity to exit the trade with a profit.

The best scenario for this strategy is if a goal is scored late in the first half, ideally by the team you’re backing. This outcome can lead to a substantial profit on your trade.

As with any trading strategy, a thorough statistical analysis is crucial. For this approach, focus on identifying teams that often score (or concede) a significant number of goals in the first half. These teams are particularly suited for the Half-Time lay the draw strategy.

For example, during the early years of Jürgen Klopp’s tenure at Liverpool, the team was known for their aggressive starts at Anfield, often dominating opponents in the first 30 minutes. Teams with a similar tendency for early goals are ideal candidates for this strategy.

Laying the draw in the second half

Alternatively, you can apply the lay the draw strategy during the second half of a football match. Although there isn’t a specific “second half” market for this, you can effectively use the Match Odds market, which is typically the most liquid on platforms like Betfair.

Similar to the Half-Time market strategy, if the game is still level at half-time, the odds for a draw in the Match Odds market often decrease significantly.

The ideal odds range for this trade is usually between 2.5 and 3.0. This range allows you to lay the draw with manageable liability while still providing a good profit potential if a goal is scored in the second half.

The best scenario is if a goal is scored late in the second half, especially by the favorite team, as this can lead to a higher profit on your trade. In the event of a goal in the dying moments of the game, you could achieve up to a 100% profit on your trade.

For traders who prefer a bit of protection, you might consider covering the current score at half-time. For example, if the game is tied 1-1 at half-time, you could place a bet on the 1-1 score while also laying the draw.

This approach safeguards against losing your entire stake if no goals are scored in the second half. However, it might result in breaking even or incurring a minor loss if an early goal is scored in the second half, but it ensures profitability if the goal comes later in the match.

Whether or not to cover the current score depends on your risk tolerance.

Regardless of your approach, it’s essential to conduct thorough research on teams that frequently score (or concede) a significant number of goals in the second half when implementing this strategy.

 

How to Lay the Draw

Trading The Draw vs Straight Betting

Trading the draw is fundamentally different from straight betting against a draw.

While straight betting involves placing a bet on the outcome of the match with the goal of winning a fixed amount of money, trading the draw is more dynamic and involves multiple steps to secure a profit.

To lay the draw, traders typically use a betting exchange like Betfair. The process begins by placing a lay bet on the draw, which means betting against the match ending in a draw.

The trader then waits for a goal to be scored, which causes the draw odds to rise. At this point, the trader can trade out of the position by backing the draw at the new, higher odds.

This locks in a profit regardless of the final outcome of the match.

For instance, if you lay the draw at odds of 3.5 with a £10 stake, your liability is £25. If a goal is scored and the draw odds rise to 5.0, you can back the draw with a £7 stake to cover your liability and secure a profit.

This approach allows traders to profit from the change in odds rather than relying solely on the match outcome.

It’s important to note that the Lay the Draw strategy is not without risk. If the match ends in a draw, the trader will lose their stake.

Additionally, if the underdog scores first, the trader may not be able to profit from the change in odds.

However, with careful selection of matches and a solid understanding of the strategy, Lay the Draw can be a profitable way to engage in football trading.

By combining statistical analysis with live match observation, traders can enhance their chances of success.

This comprehensive approach ensures that trades are based on informed decisions, maximising profit potential while managing risk effectively.

 

What to do if it Goes Wrong – and Right

There are, of course, times when trades do not pan out as we had hoped.

This is perhaps the hardest part of trading to master and causes many traders to lose a lot more money than they should. 

Understanding and implementing draw exit strategies can help manage risks and maximise profits during volatile situations.

People often panic however, over-react, or freeze when a trade goes against them, rather than staying calm and taking effective action. 

In many cases the reaction is a result of not having a clear plan.

However, lay the draw trading is not particularly complicated and it is fairly straightforward to have a plan in place that will allow you to react effectively to the various scenarios that may occur during a game. 

Here are the main ways a lay the draw trade may go against you and how to deal with it:

No Goals Scored

Even with matches expected to have high goal-scoring potential, there will be times when both teams struggle to score.

If you have laid the draw before the match, the recommended approach in such cases is to wait until around the 70-minute mark or until the draw odds fall to 2.0 (whichever happens first), then exit your position.

Typically, you might expect to lose about 50% of your stake in these scenarios. While it can be frustrating, it’s a common part of trading. Careful match selection can help minimize such outcomes.

Alternatively, you could choose to let the game continue until full time, accepting the full loss if it ends in a goalless draw.

However, this carries greater risk. Based on our experience, if a game remains goalless by the 70th minute, it often ends in a 0-0 draw, so trading out at that point is generally a more prudent choice.

Underdog Scores First

In matches where the draw odds are above 4.0, it’s common for the draw odds to decrease if the underdog scores the first goal, potentially putting your trade in a losing position.

You have a few options in this scenario:

  1. Immediate Trade-Out: You can choose to exit the trade immediately, acknowledging that the trade has become unfavorable.
  2. Stay in the Game: Alternatively, you might decide to remain in the game. This decision could be influenced by factors such as:
    • If the underdog is dominating, you might believe they could score again, possibly leading to a favorable 2-0 result.
    • If it’s early in the game, there might still be a chance for the favorite to stage a comeback and potentially win 2-1.

If you decide to keep the bet open, we recommend trading out if the score is 1-1 or still 1-0 in favor of the underdog as the match approaches the 70-minute mark. Leaving the bet open in such cases could risk losing your entire stake, which we generally aim to avoid.

The “Meltatone” Strategy

Some traders propose a strategy known as “meltatone,” which involves laying the underdog when they score first. The idea is to potentially secure a profit or break even if the favorite equalizes as expected.

However, we do not endorse this approach due to the risks involved:

  • Worsened Position: If the underdog scores again, your position can deteriorate further. While the draw odds may rise slightly, the odds for the underdog are likely to drop significantly.
  • Declining Odds: If the match remains at 1-0 in favor of the underdog, their odds will likely continue to decrease, while the draw odds remain relatively stable, putting you at a disadvantage.

Given these risks, we recommend avoiding this strategy. Instead, consider trading out when the underdog scores first or, if the situation suggests, wait for a bit to see if the match dynamics improve in your favor.

 

Things Go Right – “Riding the Wave”

Indeed, when the favorite scores first, you have the option to either exit the trade immediately to secure a profit or let it run in anticipation of a second goal.

Our typical approach involves a thorough assessment of the ongoing match. We focus on factors such as the number of scoring opportunities created by the favorite and their historical performance in winning by more than one goal during the season.

If these indicators suggest a favorable outcome, we often choose to extend the trade, usually until halftime or shortly after, to see if the favorite can score a second goal.

If the favorite manages to score again, the draw odds are likely to rise significantly, presenting a lucrative profit opportunity.

By carefully analyzing match dynamics, reviewing statistical data, and making informed decisions, we can effectively apply the lay the draw strategy when the favored team scores first, enhancing the potential profitability of our trades.

 

Lay The Draw Summary

“Lay the draw” is one of the most well-known and widely used strategies in football trading on betting exchanges.

However, it’s important to recognize that merely laying the draw without a well-structured approach is unlikely to be profitable in today’s highly efficient markets.

That said, the lay the draw strategy can still be effective.

As with other betting and trading systems, the key to success lies not just in the strategy itself but in how you implement it.

Thorough research, refining your trading approach, and focusing on specific aspects—such as the first half, late-game scenarios, or particular teams—are essential for achieving positive results.

Discipline and adherence to your established rules are crucial. Avoid letting emotions like fear or greed influence your decisions, as this can quickly lead to losses.

Patience is vital. Allow your bankroll to grow steadily over time. Most importantly, only use funds that you can afford to lose, as even with a solid strategy, success is not guaranteed in the unpredictable world of sports betting and trading.

Check out this top recommended football betting service here.

 

 

FAQ: Lay the Draw Betting Strategy

1. What is the “Lay the Draw” betting strategy?
The “Lay the Draw” strategy is a popular betting method where a bettor places a lay bet against a draw outcome in a football match. This means you are betting that one team will win and that the match will not end in a draw.

2. How does “Lay the Draw” work?
In the “Lay the Draw” strategy, you place a lay bet against the draw outcome before the match starts. If the game does not end in a draw, you win the bet. If the game is tied, you lose the bet.

You can also trade out during the match, for example after a goal is scored to lock in a profit or after 65 minutes if the game is still tied at that point to minimise losses. 

3. Why is “Lay the Draw” popular?
This strategy is popular because it leverages the fact that most football matches do not end in a draw.

Additionally, if a goal is scored by either team in a game involving evenly-matched teams, the odds on the draw typically drift, allowing bettors to potentially trade out of their position for a profit.

4. What are the best matches to use the “Lay the Draw” strategy in?
The best matches to use this strategy in are matches where you expect goals to be scored, particularly games involving teams with strong attacking play and weaker defenses.

It can also be effective as an in-play strategy, allowing you to manage your bet as the game progresses.

5. What odds should I place a “Lay the Draw” bet at?
When placing a “Lay the Draw” bet, it’s generally recommended to look for matches where the odds on the draw are between 3.0 and 4.5.

This range provides a balance between risk and reward, as it typically reflects a scenario where a draw is possible but not the most likely outcome. Odds outside this range can be more unpredictable, either offering too low a return or carrying too high a risk

6. What are the risks associated with “Lay the Draw”?
The main risk is that the match could end in a draw, resulting in a loss, or if you are trading the match, that it remains tied at your cut-off point to close the trade (e.g. 65 or 70 minutes).

7. Can I cash out my “Lay the Draw” bet?
Yes, you can cash out your bet if the odds have shifted favorably after a goal is scored, or a side has gone two goals ahead. You can also cash out your bet if the game is still tied at a certain point and you want to exit the trade to minimize your losses. 

Many bettors choose to trade out for a profit or minimize potential losses by cashing out their bet if the odds on a draw increase after a goal.

8. What should I do if the trade goes against me?
If the trade goes against you, such as when an early goal is not scored or the match seems likely to end in a draw, you have a few options. You can choose to accept the loss and exit the trade early to limit your losses.

Alternatively, you can let the bet run in the hope that a goal is scored later in the match. It’s crucial to manage your risk and have a clear exit strategy in place before placing the bet.

9. Is “Lay the Draw” suitable for beginners?
While the concept is straightforward, the “Lay the Draw” strategy requires an understanding of football betting markets, odds movements, and in-play betting. 

Beginners should paper trade or bet with small stakes until they become familiar with how the strategy works in real-time scenarios.

10. What factors should I consider before placing a “Lay the Draw” bet?
Before placing a “Lay the Draw” bet, consider the teams’ recent form, head-to-head statistics, injury reports, and the likelihood of goals being scored.

Matches with teams that are prone to scoring or conceding late goals are often ideal candidates for this strategy.

11. What is the “Meltatone” strategy?
The Meltatone strategy involves laying the underdog when they score first, with the aim of securing a profit or breaking even if the favorite equalizes as expected.

However, this approach carries significant risks if the underdog scores again or the score remains 1-0 to the underdog. 

12. Are there any alternatives to the “Lay the Draw” strategy?
Yes, some alternatives include “Backing the Draw” with the intention of laying it off at lower odds after the match progresses, or using other strategies like “Correct Score Trading” to achieve similar results.

13. Are there any tools to assist with Lay the Draw trading?
Yes, there are several tools that can assist with Lay the Draw trading. Popular tools include:

  1. Betfair Trading Software: Platforms like Betfair’s own trading tools or third-party software such as Bet Angel or Fair Bot provide real-time odds tracking, automated trading features, and advanced charting capabilities.
  2. In-Play Stats and Data: Websites and apps offering live match statistics, such as the In-Play Scanner, SofaScore or Flashscore, can provide valuable information to make informed trading decisions during the game.

These tools can help you make more informed decisions and manage your trades more effectively.

 

 

footballer kicking ball

Both Teams to Score Strategy – A Comprehensive Guide to Successful Football Betting

You might be familiar with the term “Both Teams to Score” (abbreviated as BTS or BTTS) in football betting.

This market involves deciding whether both teams will score during a football match or not.

In the following discussion, we will explore key strategies for placing bets on this market and ways to gain a competitive advantage over fellow bettors.

 

What is the Both Teams To Score (BTTS) Market?

The Both Teams to Score (BTTS) market is a popular football betting option that involves predicting whether both teams participating in a match will score at least one goal during the game.

Unlike other betting markets, the final scoreline or the match outcome is irrelevant. The primary focus is on both teams finding the back of the net at least once.

This market is particularly appealing because it allows bettors to enjoy the excitement of the game without worrying about which team will win.

Typically, the odds for BTTS bets range between 1.50 to 2.50, with many games hovering around the even-money mark (2.0).

This makes it an attractive option for those looking to engage in football betting with a relatively straightforward premise.

The BTTS market is one of the most exciting options within football bets, allowing bettors to focus on whether both teams will score.

Typically, the market is presented as either “Yes” or “No,” where selecting “Yes” indicates your belief that both teams will score, while choosing “No” implies the expectation that one or both teams will fail to score.

The market is summarized in the following table:

 

Score BTS
0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 2-0, 0-2, 3-0, 0-3 etc No
1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 3-1, 1-3, 3-2 etc Yes

 

So it’s a pretty simple market and quite a popular one to bet on for that reason.

 

Should You Bet on Both Teams To Score?

Several aspects make the Both Teams to Score (BTS) market an appealing option for potential bettors.

Firstly, the outcome of the game in terms of which team wins is inconsequential; the sole requirement is that both teams score at least one goal.

This allows bettors to enjoy the match without the added concern of predicting the overall winner.

Instead, they can relish each goal scored, hoping that both teams find the back of the net at some point.

In certain instances, a BTS bet can be successful early in an open and attacking football match.

Conversely, in other scenarios, bettors might need to wait until the final moments of the match to determine the success of their BTS bet.

Football these days is increasingly played in an offensive style, characterised by numerous chances created and shots on goal.

One viable strategy for approaching the Both Teams to Score (BTS) market is to concentrate on teams known for their attacking prowess yet possessing a vulnerable defense, creating opportunities for opponents to score at least once.

As mentioned above, typically the odds in the BTS market fall within the range of 1.50 to 2.50, with many games hovering around the even-money mark (2.0). This suggests a 50% probability of both teams scoring, a good strike rate.

 

                 —————–Get Free Tips from Pro Tipsters Here—————–

 

 

Disadvantages of the Both Teams to Score Market

While there are merits to the Both Teams to Score (BTTS) market, potential drawbacks and considerations come with predicting team scoring in this market.

Primarily, it can be exasperating if one team scores early in a game, leaving you waiting for the opposing side to make unsuccessful attempts to find the back of the net.

This frustration intensifies when the team is consistently coming forward, taking numerous shots at goal, and forcing the opposing goalkeeper into multiple saves but cannot breach the defense.

There’s also the added frustration of thinking a goal has been scored, only for VAR to intervene and disallow it.

Secondly, it is crucial to take note of team news when considering bets in the Both Teams to Score (BTS) market.

Some teams heavily depend on key strikers or creative players, and the absence of such players can diminish the likelihood of scoring.

Conversely, if a crucial defender or the first-choice goalkeeper is unavailable, it may increase the likelihood of a team conceding, thereby making a BTS outcome more probable.

Keeping abreast of such team-related factors can significantly impact the dynamics of the BTS market.

 

Types of BTTS Bets

BTTS Yes or No

The BTTS “Yes or No” market is the most common type of BTTS bet. It involves predicting whether both teams will score at least one goal during the match.

If you select “Yes,” you are betting on both teams to score, while selecting “No” implies that one or both teams will fail to score.

This type of bet is straightforward and popular among bettors because it focuses solely on the scoring ability of the teams, without the need to predict the match winner.

It’s a great way to keep the excitement alive throughout the game, as every attack and defensive play becomes crucial to the outcome of your bet.

BTTS + Win

The BTTS + Win market is an enhancement of the standard BTTS market, allowing bettors to predict not only that both teams will score but also which team will win the match.

In this market, you agree that both teams will score and then choose the side you believe will come out on top.

The odds for this market are considerably higher than those for the general BTTS market, reflecting the increased difficulty of predicting both the scoring and the match winner.

This type of bet is ideal for those who have a strong conviction about the outcome of the game and are looking for higher returns.

Both Teams to Score in Both Halves

The Both Teams to Score in Both Halves market takes the BTTS concept a step further by predicting whether both teams will score at least once in each half of the game.

For you to win this bet, each team must score at least once in both the first and second halves of the match. The final winner of the game is not relevant in this case.

This market is particularly suited for high-scoring matches or derby games where both teams are known for their offensive prowess.

The odds for this market are typically higher due to the increased difficulty, but it can offer substantial rewards for those who correctly predict such dynamic matches.

By understanding these different types of BTTS bets, you can diversify your betting strategy and potentially increase your chances of finding value in the BTTS market.

 

Best Tipsters for Both Teams To Score Strategy

As it is a popular market these days, there are quite a few tipsters providing selections on the Both Teams to Score market. You can check out the top ones on our Best Footy Tipsters list. 

 

Both Teams to Score Betting Strategies

Okay, let’s get on to looking at some strategies for betting on the Both Teams to Score market and how you can potentially get an edge over other punters on it. 

One effective approach – which we’ll look at below – is to consider BTTS in play, where you place bets during live matches based on the current progress of the game. Other strategies include using stats such as xG to inform your wagers. 

 

Strategy One – Using the Stats & Breaking Down Home and Away Form

One possible approach to developing a successful BTTS betting strategy is to use the stats to assist you.

If you go to the website soccerstats, you can click on the leagues at the top of the homepage.

For this example we will use the most popular league in the world, the English Premier League, which can be found by clicking on the English flag (EN) on soccerstats’s top menu. 

Under Premier League there is then a sub menu of options, from which you would click on “goals.”

On that page, you then scroll down a bit until it takes you to the table showing “Both teams scored.”

This table is the summary of BTS for the season, from which you can see some perhaps surprising stats.

Leicester City had the most games finishing with both teams scoring, with 68%.

West Ham were next with 63%, which might surprise people who would expect some of the more fancied names like Arsenal and Spurs to be higher up the list. 

You might want to delve a little deeper than this however in developing your strategy and break things down further. 

For example, below is a table representing the home results in terms of the both teams to score stats.

Looking at the home table, we see that West Ham top it with an astonishing 79% of their home games finishing “Yes” on BTS over the season. 

Chelsea come next with 63% of their home games finishing BTS, but that is quite a bit below West Ham’s total. 

Perhaps more surprisingly, Southampton had 58% of their home games finish with a positive BTS result, but it may well have been priced above evens for a number of matches.

Now we have a look at the away stats:

 

On the away side of things, Leicester City are the runaway leaders with an amazing 84% of their away games finishing with both sides scoring. That would have produced a very tidy profit if backed throughout the season.  

What can really pay off in these instances is to go for matches where both sides have a high percentage of games finishing with both teams scoring. 

And you can enhance things even further by going for a side playing at home with a strong home BTS record (e.g. West Ham) against a side with a high away BTS percentage (e.g. Leicester).

You can use these tools on soccerstats to research data on leagues all over the world and you may find some opportunities that really stand out. 

Bear in mind that the odds for the BTS will often be around evens, so if you are backing sides with around a 70% BTS record, you may well be securing significant value.  

 

Strategy Two – Using Expected Goals (xG) Data

Another strategic approach to Both Teams to Score (BTTS) involves a more in-depth analysis by delving into expected goals data for football matches. BTTS is one of the most popular football bets, and using expected goals data can provide a deeper insight into this market.

For those unfamiliar with the term, expected goals (xG) considers all shots at goal in a game, their locations, and calculates the average number of goals a team should be expected to score based on their performance.

It offers a more comprehensive insight into a team’s offensive performance beyond the actual goal tally.

Utilizing platforms like Understat, which provide xG data, allows bettors to identify teams that might be underperforming or overperforming relative to the goals they have scored. This method provides a more nuanced perspective for making informed BTS predictions.

Consider a scenario where a team has been experiencing scoring droughts lately. Upon examining their expected goals (xG) data, you discover that it consistently exceeds 1.0 for several of those games, indicating that the team is creating chances and taking shots at goal, but luck hasn’t been on their side recently.

Due to their recent goalless performances, the odds for Both Teams to Score (BTS) might be quite high. This presents a potential value opportunity to support them in the BTS market.

Identifying two teams with similar situations can unveil significant value. Additionally, exploring data on expected goals conceded provides further insights, helping identify teams that may have kept clean sheets but faced numerous shots and scoring opportunities against them.

Utilizing expected goals data goes beyond simplistic scorelines, offering a means to uncover value opportunities and potentially providing an edge over other bettors.

 

Strategy Three – Going In-Running

An alternative both teams to score strategy is to wait for the game to go in-play and then look for opportunities as they arise. BTTS is one of the popular football bets that can be placed in-play, offering dynamic opportunities as the game progresses.

What you are looking for ideally is a situation where one team has scored and you are waiting for the other team to hit the back of the net.

 

Employing tools like the In-Play Scanner can be instrumental in identifying teams exerting significant pressure, signaling an imminent goal. This tool provides a live rating based on the likelihood of a goal being scored, offering valuable insights. Waiting until the period between half time and the 60th minute allows you to capitalize on rising odds for Both Teams to Score (BTS), presenting an opportunity for obtaining favorable value.

Additionally, actively watching a game serves as one of the most effective methods to pinpoint in-play BTS opportunities.

For instance, a team might be trailing by one goal but consistently creating scoring chances, launching continuous attacks while their opponents rely on luck to defend. As time progresses without a goal, the odds on BTS tend to drift, presenting excellent opportunities towards the end of games.

Watching a game closely like this can lead to identifying favorable scenarios and seizing valuable betting opportunities.

 

Summary – Both Teams to Score

Betting on Both Teams to Score, commonly known as BTS or BTTS, is a popular approach for bettors these days and having a solid BTTS betting strategy is crucial.

When supporting BTS “Yes,” it’s advantageous to target teams that excel offensively but exhibit defensive vulnerabilities.

Various strategies can enhance your approach, such as analyzing home and away statistics, delving into expected goals data, or waiting for in-play opportunities to unfold.

It’s crucial, as always, to gamble responsibly and only wager amounts within your affordable limits when implementing a Both Teams to Score strategy.

Wishing you the best of luck with your bets!

If you are looking for more top football strategies, check out our over 1.5 goals strategy here.

 

The 3 Odds Betting Strategy: Boost Your Profits With Under-the-Radar Bets

When it comes to sports betting we all want that edge to win more. One strategy that’s gaining popularity is the 3 odds betting strategy.

In this guide we’ll cover everything you need to know about this strategy and how you can use it to win more.

Plus we’ll share tips from expert tipsters to help you fine tune your sports betting.

Let’s get started!

What is the 3 Odds Strategy?

We previously had a look at the 2 odds betting strategy, so now let’s have a look at the 3 odds betting strategy. 

The 3 odds strategy is all about betting on outcomes with odds around 3.00 (decimal) which is 2/1 in fractional.

The logic behind this is simple: at these odds you’re betting on events that have around a 33% chance of happening.

These odds may seem like a coin flip but the risk and reward can be managed with the right approach.

How the Strategy Works

The 3 odds betting strategy is effective because you can win a decent amount without having to win every bet.

At 3.00 odds, even winning just slightly more than one out of three bets can be profitable if you manage your bankroll correctly.

Key principles:

  • Betting on value: You want to find odds where the actual probability is higher than what the bookies offer.
  • Research and analysis: Make sure you properly research each bet and don’t just bet on a whim or “gut instinct.”
  • Discipline: This strategy requires patience and sticking to your plan even when losing.


How the 3 Odds Strategy is Different to Other Strategies

Unlike strategies that focus on low risk favourites or highly speculative accumulators, the 3 odds strategy is a balance of risk and reward.

It doesn’t require big stakes like arbitrage betting or backing short-priced favourites.

The Maths of 3 Odds Betting

The 3 odds betting strategy is ultimately about maths. Understanding probability and expected value is key to this strategy.

Probability and How It Applies

At 3.00 odds the implied probability is around 33.33%.

So you’re essentially betting on events that have a 1 in 3 chance of happening.

The key is to find when the actual probability of the outcome is higher than the implied probability – that’s where the value is.

Calculating Expected Value in 3 Odds Bets

Expected value (EV) is the foundation of any betting strategy.

In 3 odds betting the EV is based on working out if the real chances of an event happening are higher than the odds imply.

For example:

  • If you think a team has 40% chance of winning (higher than the 33.33% implied) then your bet has a positive EV.
  • Remember, to work out the implied chances of an event happening based on the odds, divide 100 by the decimal odds. So decimal odds of 2.0 imply a 50% chance (100 divided by 2.0), decimal odds of 10 imply a 10% chance (100 divided by 10) and so on.  

Ultimately if the odds are 3.0 but chances of winning are above 33.33% then the bet can be worth taking. That is the essence of the 3 odds betting strategy. 

 

The 3 Odds Betting Strategy

Okay let’s get on to looking at some approaches you can take to the 3 odds betting strategy. 

Here are three possible strategies you can follow:

1. Backing Second Favourites in Horse Racing

One way to use the 3 odds betting strategy is to focus on 2nd favourites in horse racing.

Casual punters tend to overlook 2nd favourites and go for either the favourite or long shots.

But 2nd favourites can be great value if certain conditions are met.

The odds for 2nd favourites are usually around 3.00 so they are perfect for this strategy.

Here’s how you can narrow down to under the radar 2nd favourites that have a good chance of winning:

Finding the Right Horses to Back

When backing 2nd favourites, you need to look beyond the odds and into the details of each horse.

Second favourites can be priced attractively when they are not getting as much attention as the favourite but still have a good chance of winning.

Here are a few examples of when this might be the case:

  • Coming Back After a Long Break: Horses coming back from a long layoff are often underestimated by bookies and punters alike. But if a horse has a history of performing well fresh (after a break) or its trainer is known for getting horses ready after a layoff, this could be a good opportunity. Punters may undervalue the horse because it hasn’t raced in a while so the odds can often be around 3.00.
  • Racing at a Favourite Track: Some horses are better at certain tracks, often because of the layout or surface of the track. These ‘course specialists’ are often overlooked in the betting markets especially if they haven’t raced there for a while. A 2nd favourite back at its favourite track where it has a winning record can be great value at 3.00.
  • Top Jockey Booked: When a top jockey is booked for a horse from a smaller or less fashionable yard, this can be a strong sign the horse is fancied to win. Trainers often book high profile jockeys when they think they have a real chance, especially if it’s unusual for that jockey to ride for the yard. If this happens with a 2nd favourite, it can be a hidden edge the market hasn’t priced in.
  • Favourable Ground Conditions: Some horses are better on certain types of ground, whether it’s soft, heavy or firm. When a horse that thrives in certain ground conditions runs in those conditions but is 2nd favourite, it can be great value. Ground conditions are often overlooked by casual punters so you can capitalise on a situation where the horse’s performance could exceed expectations.

Example: 2nd favourite at 3.00

Imagine a horse, let’s call it “Silver Breeze”, is 2nd favourite at 3.00.

Silver Breeze is coming back from a 4 month break but has a history of performing well fresh having won in similar circumstances before.

The race is at Silver Breeze’s favourite track where it has won twice in three starts.

A top jockey who rarely rides for the yard has been booked, a good sign the trainer thinks the horse is ready to go.

Despite all these positives the favourite is a more popular horse and getting all the betting money.

Silver Breeze is under the radar at 3.00 so is a well informed bet.

Why This Works

The beauty of backing 2nd favourites in these circumstances is you’re finding value where others aren’t.

The odds on 2nd favourites are often higher than their actual chance of winning because bookies and casual punters are focusing on the favourite.

By targeting horses with specific advantages like a long break, favourite track, top jockey booking or suitable ground you can find 3 odds bets.

This way you can take advantage of the overlooked or undervalued factors and win more while being disciplined and mathematical.


2. Backing the Underdog in Tennis

Another way to use the 3 odds betting strategy is to focus on underdogs in tennis.

Tennis is a sport where individual performances can change on a whim due to conditions, form or head to head.

These dynamics can create situations where the market undervalues certain players when their odds are around 3.00.

Backing underdogs at these odds means you can find value where the player is more likely to win than the market thinks.

Here’s how you can refine this approach to win more:

Finding Underdogs with Value

In tennis an underdog might be 3.00 because they are up against a higher ranked player.

But rankings don’t always tell the full story. To find value in backing underdogs you need to go deeper into the stats and look at specific factors that give the lower ranked player an edge:

  • Head-to-Head Records: Tennis players have psychological advantages or stylistic matchups that favour them over certain opponents regardless of their overall ranking. For example a lower ranked player may have beaten a higher ranked opponent in previous encounters especially if their playing style disrupts the favourite’s game. If the head to head record shows the underdog has a good chance of winning this can be a great value bet at 3.00.
  • Playing Surface: Tennis is a sport where surface plays a huge role in determining outcomes. Some players excel on certain surfaces whether it’s clay, grass or hard courts. If an underdog is playing on their preferred surface they may have a better chance than their odds suggest. For example a player known for their clay court prowess might be undervalued when facing a higher ranked opponent who performs better on hard courts. Identifying these surface specialists can lead to profitable opportunities.
  • Player Form and Fitness: Tennis seasons are long and players’ form can fluctuate dramatically. A higher ranked player might be out of form or injured and the underdog can cause an upset. Conversely the underdog might be in form and have won a few matches or tournaments recently. By following player form you can identify when the market is undervaluing an underdog’s chances.
  • External Factors: Conditions such as weather, location and even crowd support can have a big impact on a tennis match. For example an underdog playing in their home country might get a boost from the crowd while extreme weather conditions (strong winds or extreme heat) might favour the underdog’s style of play. These external factors are often overlooked by casual punters creating value opportunities for those who pay attention.

Example: Underdog at 3.00

Imagine an underdog such as Elina Svitolina is 3.00 against a higher ranked opponent like Coco Gauff.

Gauff has the better ranking and has been playing well on hard courts but this match is on clay and Svitolina is a better player on the red dirt.

In their two previous encounters on clay Svitolina won both times despite being lower ranked.

At 3.00 Svitolina is a great value bet especially with her head to head record and clay court prowess.

And she is in form having reached the quarters of a recent clay tournament while Gauff has been on a long hard court season and is showing signs of fatigue.

So Svitolina is an underdog with a good chance of causing an upset.

Why This Works

Backing underdogs in tennis at 3.00 can be very profitable because the tennis betting market overvalues higher ranked players.

This is particular the case in regular events played over 3 sets rather than grand slam events played over 5 sets (in men’s tennis at least).

Upsets regularly occur over 3 sets and pro tennis bettors often look for value in underdogs rather than favourites. 

By focusing on underdogs with specific edges – head to head records, surface specialists or in form – you can find value bets that others miss.

Tennis is a sport where match dynamics can change quickly so it’s a great place to apply the 3 odds betting strategy.

With the right analysis and discipline on your bankroll backing underdogs can be very profitable over time.

 

3. Backing Top Scorers to Score Anytime in Football

Another way to use the 3 odds strategy is to back top scorers to score anytime in football.

Here you’re looking at prolific goal scorers who are key players for their team and have a good chance to score in a match.

Top scorer odds can be around 3.00 in matches where the opposing defence is strong or the striker is coming off a goal drought.

Here’s how to do it:

Why Top Scorers Provide Value

Top scorers are the focal point of their team’s attack, so they’re most likely to get goal scoring opportunities.

Betting on them to score anytime at 3.00 odds can be value when specific factors work to their advantage:

  • Favourable Opponent: Some strikers perform well against certain teams, either because of the opponent’s weak defence or because the team’s style of play gives them more opportunities in front of goal. For example a striker who thrives against lower table teams with leaky defences is more likely to score, so the value of a bet on them to score increases.
  • Penalty Takers and Set Pieces: Players who take penalties or free-kicks increase their chances of scoring. If a team has a regular penalty taker who is also the top scorer, betting on them to score anytime is a strong play at 3.00 odds, especially in physical games where penalties might be awarded.
  • Player Form: A striker in form and scoring consistently is often overpriced in the markets. But if their odds are still 3.00 despite their form, that’s value. Conversely a top scorer going through a short goal drought might have slightly inflated odds but still has the talent and opportunity to score in any given match.
  • Team’s Playing Style: If a team is an attacking team with the top scorer at the centre of their attacks, there’s a higher chance of that player scoring. Teams that create chances increase the probability of their main striker scoring, especially if they’re the target for crosses, through balls or set pieces.

Example Scenario: 3.00 Odds Value

Bukayo Saka is the top scorer for Arsenal and is 3.00 to score anytime in a big match against a top-six team.

The Gunners’ normal penalty taker is injured and you suspect Saka will be on penalties today in their stead. Saka has scored 4 of his last 5 penalties.

Whilst the opposing defence is generally fairly strong, they struggle against pacey strikers like Saka and their centre backs have conceded a number of penalties this season. So backing Saka at 3.00 is value.

Despite being a quality striker, the market has slightly inflated Saka’s odds because of the big match and because the England man has not scored for five games.

However, he has been playing well in those games and has had a good number of shots on target – they just haven’t been going in due to a mixture of bad luck and goalkeeper heroics. 

But given his form, penalty taking and the style of play favouring him, backing him to score anytime at 3.00 is a calculated risk with good potential reward.

Why This Works

Backing top scorers to score anytime is a 3 odds betting strategy because you’re betting on the most likely player to score, but often the odds reflect an underestimation of that likelihood due to external factors like team form, recent results or the quality of the opponent.

By looking at the player’s form, opponent weaknesses and key roles like set pieces you can find value in these markets.

This strategy combines statistical analysis with situational awareness, giving you an edge over casual bettors who may only consider overall team form or favouritism when placing their bets.

 

Risk Management and Bankroll in the 3 Odds Betting Strategy

One of the key elements of this strategy is bankroll management.

At 3.00 odds losing streaks can happen so you need to have a solid bankroll management plan in place.

A general rule of thumb is to never stake more than 1-2% of your total bankroll on any one bet.

This way you can weather a losing streak without blowing your whole bankroll.

 

Common Mistakes with the 3 Odds Betting Strategy and How to Avoid Them

No strategy is without risk. Here are the common mistakes of the 3 odds strategy and how to avoid them.

Emotional Betting and the 3 Odds Strategy

It’s easy to get emotional when betting especially during a bad run. But the key to long term success is to stick to your strategy and not place bets on a whim and without solid research behind them. 

Overreliance on Favourites or Underdogs

Betting on favourites might seem like a safe bet but don’t overdo it. Same with always betting on underdogs.

The 3 odds strategy is about balance and finding value not just backing favourites or outsiders.

Chasing Losses on 3.0 Bets

Chasing losses on 3.0 bets is a common pitfall, as the temptation to recover quickly after a few losses can lead to reckless betting and poor decision-making—it’s crucial to maintain discipline and stick to your strategy, rather than letting emotions drive your bets.

Not Adapting to Market Changes

The sports betting landscape is always changing. Whether it’s a change in odds, team performance or market trends you need to be adaptable and adjust your strategy accordingly.

 

Conclusion

The 3 odds strategy is an under-the-radar approach to attacking the betting markets. 

Most punters like to focus on either favourites or long-shots, but good value can often be found at around the 3.0 odds mark. 

It has the added benefit of having a good risk-reward ratio: a decent win rate of around 33%, whilst also having the potential to produce solid returns, unlike backing odds-on shots for example.  

By understanding the maths behind it, having a solid plan and conducting thorough research before placing your bets, you can maximise your chances of winning 3.0 bets.

Remember patience and discipline is key to this strategy working for you.

Happy betting!

 

Sports betting strategy

Building a Profitable Sports Betting Strategy with Expert Tipster Advice

When it comes to making a profit from sports betting, having expert tipster advice can be a big help.

Tipsters – those who spend their time studying sports and providing betting advice – are part of the betting landscape.

But success in sports betting isn’t just about following tipster tips.

It’s about having a solid strategy, good bankroll management and most importantly knowing how to use tipster advice wisely.

Tipsters in Sports Betting

Tipsters play a pivotal role in shaping successful sports betting strategies, offering insights and recommendations that can help bettors make more informed decisions.

Let’s take a closer look at what tipsters do and how they operate in the betting world.

What Are Tipsters and How Do They Work?

Sports tipsters are individuals who provide predictions or betting tips on sports events, usually backed by research, statistics or a combination of experience and betting nous.

They work in two ways: providing free or paid tips to their followers.

Tipsters aim to find value bets – bets where the odds offered by bookmakers are higher than the actual probability of the outcome – so bettors can make informed decisions.

Tipsters usually specialise in a particular sport or league, using their expertise to narrow down the field and increase accuracy.

Some even focus on specific markets, such as in-play or over/under bets, to increase their winning chances.

Free vs Paid Tipster Services

One of the first decisions bettors face is whether to use free or paid tipster services.

Free tipsters, often found on social media or betting forums but also on dedicated websites and in newspapers, can be useful but sometimes lack the quality of paid services.

Paid tipster subscription services by no means guarantee success, but if you find the right one then they can be well worth paying for.  

Whether going for a free or paid tipster, the key is to scrutinise the tipster’s track record and be sure they are up to scratch. 

How Tipsters Analyse Games and Provide Tips

Tipsters use various methods to analyse sports events including statistical analysis, team or player form, injury reports, head-to-head data and betting market trends.

Many use advanced sports prediction analysis tools to crunch the numbers and find patterns that casual bettors miss.

The best sports tipsters continually refine their methods, adapting to market changes and staying up to date with new data.

Tipster Reputation and Track Record

A tipster’s reputation and track record are key indicators of their reliability.

Consistency over time is a big factor; anyone can have a winning run but true professional tipsters are those who show long term profitability.

Bettors should look for transparency from a tipster, check their P&L records are verified by an independent site like this one.

When evaluating tipster accuracy rates, you should consider their win rate and the average odds they recommend, as well as their ROI (return on investment).

A tipster with a lower win rate but higher odds can still be profitable in the long run if they find value in their tips.

Key to Profitable Sports Betting

To develop a successful sports betting strategy, it’s essential to focus on several key components that work together to boost long-term profitability.

One of the most important starting points is setting clear and achievable goals while managing your expectations.

Setting Realistic Goals and Expectations

No matter how good a tipster or strategy is, betting is not a get-rich-quick scheme.

Setting realistic goals and managing expectations is key to long term success.

Most profitable betting strategies aim for gradual growth rather than one big win.

Bankroll Management for Long Term Success

Bankroll management is the foundation of any profitable betting strategy.

This means setting aside a dedicated amount of money for betting and only staking a small percentage of that bankroll on any one bet.

A common approach is to use a sports betting bankroll calculator to work out your optimal stakes based on your total bankroll and the odds of the event.

Good bankroll management also helps bettors manage risk and avoid chasing losses – a common trap in sports betting.

Odds and Probability in Sports Betting

Odds and probability are closely related and understanding this is key for any bettor.

Odds reflect the bookmaker’s opinion of the likelihood of an event happening but they include a margin (known as the overround) to ensure the bookmaker makes a profit.

By understanding how to read betting odds analysis you can find value and exploit the market.

The Benefits of Specialising in a Sport or League

Specialising in a sport or league allows bettors to get to know the teams, players and conditions that affect the outcome.

By focusing on specific areas you can develop expertise that gives you an edge over generalists and even the bookmakers themselves.

Many expert tipsters specialise in certain leagues or sports and produce more accurate tips as a result.

Using Tipster Tips to Improve Your Betting

Choosing reliable tipsters can be tough but there are key tipster selection criteria to consider.

Look for tipsters with a transparent record, clear staking advice and consistent performance over time.

Check their win rate and ROI (return on investment) and compare to your own betting goals.

Understanding Tipster Strategies 

Following tipster tips can be profitable but you can also use their advice and reasoning to improve your own betting. 

Many sports tipsters provide detailed reasoning behind their tips, which gives you a window into their strategy and how they go about finding value. 

Understanding the process and approach of a profitable tipster can help you improve your own betting strategy. 

For example, you might see that a tennis tipster finds value on certain underdog players by evaluating their head-to-head records against other players on specific surfaces.

You could then use the same process to identify undervalued players yourself.

Or understanding a tipster’s approach might be an inspiration, or starting point, to developing your own strategies. 

However, you have to be sure that any strategies you develop will be profitable long-term so it is best to test them out first through paper trading before risking real money. 

Creating a System to Monitor Tipster Performance

Monitoring tipster performance is key to making sure their tips remain profitable over time.

Betting performance tracking tools can help you log bets, analyse results and evaluate a tipster’s performance.

This also allows you to monitor your own progress and adjust your strategy as needed.

Combining Multiple Tipster Tips with Your Own Analysis

Sometimes bettors follow multiple tipsters to diversify their betting portfolio.

Whilst this can be a good idea as it can help to balance out the performance of different tipsters – much like a portfolio approach in the stock market – it does come with risk. 

If you do this you need to ensure you have a sufficient betting bank to cover following multiple tipsters, as if they hit a losing run at the same time it can become very damaging. 

We have seen many betting banks wiped out through following multiple tipsters at the same time without having enough funds to do so. 

Our advice is to have a separate betting bank for each tipster and for each of those betting banks to be sufficient in its own right. 

For example, if you were following five tipsters and each one recommends a 100 point bank, make sure you have five 100 point banks, or a 500 point bank in total. 

  • That could mean having a $5,000 total bank, split into $1,000 for each tipster and betting $10 per point on each bet; or
  • Having a $1,000 total bank, split into $200 for each tipster and betting $2 per point on each bet.  

Whatever the exact amount you use, the key is to ensure you are allocating sufficient funds to each tipster and do not risk busting your bank.  

Common Mistakes When Using Sports Betting Tipsters

While tipster advice can significantly enhance your betting strategy, there are some common mistakes bettors make that can undermine their success.

Adopting a Short-Term Mindset

Probably the biggest mistake we see when people follow tipsters is adopting a short-term mindset. 

People often just look at results from the last month, week or even few days when judging the tipster’s performance. 

“He hasn’t had a winner in a week” or “he’s 30 points down this month” are the type of complaints made. 

Punters then abandon the tipster and jump onto the next one. 

Whilst looking at the latest form – often referred to as “recency bias” – is a natural human tendency, it can be very detrimental when following tipsters. 

Betting is highly unpredictable and no tipster, no matter how good they are, is going to win all the time. 

We’ve seen even the very best sports tipsters – those who have made over 1,000 points profit in their careers – go through periods where they have struggled for an extended period.

Performance needs to be judged over much longer timeframes than a few weeks or months to get an accurate picture of how good a tipster is – at least a year, but really a number of years in truth.

That allows the short-term ups-and-downs to be balanced out and a full picture of a tipster’s skill to be seen. 

Sadly a lot of punters fall victim to recency bias and jump about from tipster to tipster as soon as one hits a losing run. 

That approach will only lead to heavy losses though as they are never allowing tipsters the chance to recover and to enjoy the long-term profits that the best tipsters can deliver.  

Although it can be hard at times, try to resist the temptation to focus too much on the results of the last few tips a tipster has given out and always remember it’s the long-term picture that matters. 

Chasing Losses and Ignoring Bankroll Management

One of the biggest mistakes bettors make is chasing losses which can drain a bankroll quickly.

Stick to your bankroll management plan and never increase your stakes to recover losses.

Falling for Scams and Unrealistic Promises from Unverified Tipsters

Tipster scam prevention is key. Be wary of unverified tipsters making guaranteed profit promises.

Stick to verified services with a proven history.

Not Keeping Track of Results

It’s important to track the results of any tipsters you are following. Not just the official results – but the actual results you have achieved.

Some tipsters may have impressive official results but if it’s tough to achieve their advised prices then you might actually be making a loss whilst the tipster’s headline numbers show a profit. 

If you aren’t able to achieve the advised prices, it is worth looking at whether this is because the prices just crash too quickly – or whether it’s because you aren’t able to get the bets on in reasonable time after they are sent out for whatever reason. 

It could be that the time a certain tipster sends out their tips isn’t suitable for you and switching to another tipster who sends their tips at a time when you can get the bets on is a better option.  

Tools and Resources to Help You Implement Your Sports Betting Strategy

To effectively implement your sports betting strategy and maximize profits, it’s essential to have the right tools and resources at your disposal.

Odds Comparison Sites and Betting Exchanges

Using odds comparison websites like Oddschecker.com will help you find the best odds for your bets. 

This is normally crucial in ensuring you are getting the most out of following a tipster and can be the difference between making a profit and a loss. 

Margins in betting tend to be very small so squeezing out every last ounce you can is vital. 

It is also advisable to make the most of betting exchanges like Betfair.

Most tipsters are more profitable to follow at the bookies than the exchanges, but not always. There are some who are more profitable at Betfair so it is worth comparing the two. 

With our horse racing reviews for example we always record results at both advised prices and Betfair SP, so you can see which option is better.  

Online Communities and Forums to Share Strategies and Tipster Reviews

Online sports betting forums and communities are a great place to share strategies and tipster reviews.

Chat with other bettors to get new ideas and refine your approach.

Books and Courses to Learn Sports Betting Mathematics

If you want to improve your betting strategy, consider investing in books and courses on sports betting mathematics and betting risk management.

These will give you a deeper understanding of the odds and probabilities behind a winning strategy.

Conclusion – Using Tipsters to Build a Profitable Sports Betting Strategy

Using the advice of tipsters can be a great way to build a profitable sports betting strategy. 

By choosing good tipsters, combining their advice with your own research and using all the tools at your disposal you will be well ahead of most punters. 

But you must be realistic, disciplined with your bankroll and not rely on tipsters to win all the time. 

Betting is a long game and adopting a long-term approach is the key to staying ahead.

With the right tools, resources and a good approach you can turn tipster advice into a powerful part of your sports betting strategy that delivers over time.

Remember, patience, persistence and continuous learning is the foundation of any successful betting journey.