The next England manager odds are always a hot topic—filled with speculation, surprise candidates, and serious betting interest.

With Gareth Southgate stepping down after Euro 2024 and Thomas Tuchel now leading the Three Lions into the 2026 World Cup, attention is already turning to who could take over the reins next.

From Premier League tacticians like Eddie Howe and Graham Potter, to global heavyweights such as Pep Guardiola, Mauricio Pochettino, and Jürgen Klopp, the odds on who will be the next England manager are already starting to shift.

And with the FA known for springing a surprise or two, there could be a few longshot contenders worth keeping an eye on too.

In this comprehensive guide, we break down the latest odds, analyse the leading contenders, and assess what the future might hold for the England hot seat.

Whether you’re looking to place a savvy bet or just want to stay ahead of the conversation, read on for everything you need to know about the Next England Manager Odds.

The Departure of Gareth Southgate

Gareth Southgate’s tenure as England manager concluded after the team’s narrow defeat to Spain in the Euro 2024 final.

Under his leadership, England reached significant milestones, including a World Cup semi-final in 2018 and a European Championship final in 2021.

Despite these achievements, the elusive major tournament victory led to Southgate’s decision to step down, prompting the FA to seek a new direction.

The Appointment of Thomas Tuchel Lands 50/1 Gamble for Shrewd Early Punters

Amidst an array of candidates and a flurry of betting activity in a heated market, Thomas Tuchel emerged as the FA’s chosen successor to Southgate, being backed in heavily from an initial price of 50/1 into eventual odds of 1.20 (1/5) in the days leading up to his appointment.

There were a number of contenders vying for favouritism at various stages in the race to replace Southgate however, including Pep Guardiola who hit odds of 2.24 (5/4) at one point and interim manager Lee Carsley who was backed at odds of 1.05 (1/20).

Ultimately though it was the German Tuchel who got the nod from the FA to take over the reins as Three Lions boss, landing a decent gamble for those shrewd punters who had backed him at initial odds of 50/1. 

The German tactician, renowned for his strategic acumen and experience at top clubs like Borussia Dortmund, Paris Saint-Germain, Chelsea, and Bayern Munich, was appointed on an 18-month contract starting January 1, 2025.

Tuchel’s familiarity with English football, having led Chelsea to a Champions League triumph in 2021, and his rapport with several English players were pivotal factors in his appointment.

His ability to instill discipline, adapt tactics, and manage high-profile squads aligned with the FA’s aspirations for the national team.

However, with Tuchel’s contract only running until after the 2026 World Cup, speculation is already growing on who might replace him should the German not achieve glory in America next year.  

The Contenders to be Tuchel’s Successor

Whilst Tuchel’s rein has got off to a solid start, given that England are currently priced at around 7/1 to win the 2026 World Cup, there’s a fair chance (according to the bookies at least) that Tuchel won’t be coming home with the World Cup trophy and the hunt will be on for his successor next Summer. 

And of course in the unlikely event that England don’t qualify for the next World Cup or there are some other unforeseen circumstances, the German’s stint in charge could be over even sooner. 

So speculation has already started on who may succeed Tuchel as next England manager and lead them into Euro 2028, which is being held in the home nations of England, the Republic of Ireland, Scotland, and Wales.

We take a look at some of the runners and riders to take the reins for the big job after Tuchel and what their odds could be. ​

Eddie Howe

Eddie Howe is widely regarded as one of the brightest English managers of his generation, and his name has consistently cropped up in conversations around the England job.

His managerial career began at AFC Bournemouth, where he pulled off what many consider to be a footballing miracle.

Taking over a club teetering on the brink of extinction and sitting near the bottom of League Two, Howe masterminded a rise through the divisions that culminated in promotion to the Premier League in 2015—a first in the club’s history.

What made Howe’s achievement even more impressive was the way his Bournemouth side played. Known for attractive, attacking football with a clear identity, Howe’s tactical philosophy earned him praise across the footballing world.

He kept Bournemouth in the top flight for five seasons—an incredible feat given their modest budget and stature compared to the Premier League giants.

After a brief sabbatical following his departure from Bournemouth in 2020, Howe returned to management with Newcastle United in November 2021.

Taking over a side stuck in the relegation zone and under new ownership, he quickly transformed their fortunes. Within 18 months, Newcastle not only secured Champions League qualification but also reached the EFL Cup final in 2023—their first major final since 1999.

He went one better in 2025, delivering Newcastle their first silverware in 70 years with victory over Liverpool in the Carabao Cup final. Howe’s stock is very much on the up and he will undoubtedly be one of the favourites for the job after Tuchel.

Howe’s coaching style emphasises structured build-up play, energetic pressing, and player development—all traits that would be desirable for an international setup. He’s also shown that he can handle pressure, build cohesive squads, and tactically adapt to different opponents, which is vital in tournament football.

Howe’s odds ranged from 3.75 (11/4) to 9.0 (8/1) for much of the contest to replace Gareth Southgate, eventually drifting out to 13.0 (12/1) when Tuchel emerged as the clear front-runner. 

We expect Howe’s odds next time to be even lower, starting out in the 2.0 (evens) to 4.0 (3/1) range. 

The main challenge for the FA, should they consider Howe after Tuchel, is that he appears committed to the Newcastle project for the long term. He’s building something substantial at St James’ Park, and prising him away might not be easy—unless the lure of leading his country proves too strong.

The key question may be whether Howe will be ready for a fresh challenge by the Autumn of 2026 or whether he is still focused on his work at Newcastle at that time. 

Graham Potter

Graham Potter is another English coach who has attracted considerable attention in recent years, particularly for his intelligent, forward-thinking approach to management.

Potter first gained recognition not in the Premier League, but in Sweden—of all places—where he managed Östersunds FK. When he took over in 2011, they were in the fourth tier of Swedish football.

Under Potter’s guidance, they achieved three promotions in five years and ended up winning the Swedish Cup in 2017. They even enjoyed a fairytale Europa League run, famously beating Galatasaray and giving Arsenal a real scare.

That continental success earned him a move to Swansea City in the Championship, where his team played attractive, possession-based football.

Although they didn’t achieve promotion, Potter’s style and vision caught the attention of Premier League side Brighton & Hove Albion, who hired him in 2019.

At Brighton, Potter built a reputation for tactical flexibility, progressive football, and making the most of a modest squad. His team frequently outperformed expectations in terms of xG (expected goals), even if results didn’t always match.

Eventually, Brighton started to convert their underlying performance into results, finishing in the top half of the Premier League before he left for Chelsea in 2022.

Potter’s time at Chelsea was short-lived and somewhat chaotic, but it’s widely accepted that he was working in extremely difficult circumstances—managing a bloated, imbalanced squad during a turbulent period for the club.

Despite the struggles, he maintained his reputation as a thoughtful, analytical coach who is deeply committed to improving players and building long-term projects.

In the context of the England job, Potter ticks many boxes. He’s English, has experience working with young players, and is known for his calm, measured demeanour—qualities often desirable in international football.

His teams are tactically astute, capable of switching between systems mid-game, and generally well-drilled in both defence and attack.

All of these attributes made him an attractive option to replace Southgate and his odds reflected that, starting out as a prohibitive favourite at odds of 2.5 (6/4) in the Summer of 2024, before drifting out towards 4.0 (3/1) as other contenders emerged, before finally drifting out above 15.0 (14/1) as it became clear the FA were looking elsewhere. 

We expect Potter to start amongst the favourites for the job again, but whether the opportunity has now passed for Potter and the FA’s attention will be elsewhere is an open question. 

​He has not set the world alight yet at West Ham either, with the hammers languishing towards the bottom end of the Premier League table. An improvement in form between now and Summer 2026 would do a lot for Potter’s chances.  

Mauricio Pochettino

Mauricio Pochettino has long been regarded as one of the most respected modern football managers, especially among English fans.

His name naturally surfaced in discussions about the England role, thanks to his deep understanding of the English game and impressive managerial pedigree.

Pochettino first made waves in the Premier League with Southampton, where he earned plaudits for transforming the club’s playing style and helping develop future England stars like Adam Lallana, Luke Shaw, and Jay Rodriguez.

His tactical nous, emphasis on high pressing, and ability to get the best out of young players earned him a move to Tottenham Hotspur in 2014.

At Spurs, he truly made his mark. Over five and a half years, Pochettino established Tottenham as a regular top-four side in the Premier League and took them to the Champions League final in 2019—a remarkable achievement considering the club’s limited spending during that period.

His time at Spurs was defined by exciting football, player development (most notably Harry Kane and Dele Alli), and a near miss at silverware that nonetheless enhanced his reputation.

After leaving Spurs, he took charge of Paris Saint-Germain, where he finally lifted some major trophies, including the French Cup and Trophée des Champions.

He also guided PSG to the semi-finals of the Champions League, but like many before him, struggled to manage the egos in a superstar-packed dressing room. 

More recently, he had a mixed stint at Chelsea, where despite flashes of promise, he couldn’t quite stabilise the club amidst off-pitch chaos.

All of this experience—especially managing in high-pressure environments, developing young talent, and working with elite players—seems perfectly suited to the England job.

Pochettino also has a good relationship with many current England players and speaks fluent English, which would make the transition to the national side relatively seamless.

However, with Pochettino taking the role of head coach of the United States national team, it could significantly impact his future chances of managing England.

While it would still provide him with international experience, managing a CONCACAF nation with less competitive fixtures and a lower pressure environment might not hold the same weight with the FA as managing a top European side.

Moreover, if he were to take the USA job and remain there for several years, it might signal a shift in his career focus—perhaps favouring long-term international development over the elite intensity of European football.

That could put him at a disadvantage if and when the England job becomes available again after Thomas Tuchel’s tenure.

That said, football is a fast-moving game. If Pochettino impresses with the USMNT—particularly in the run-up to and in the 2026 World Cup, which they are co-hosting—he could well strengthen his candidacy for the England role in the future.

After all, the FA has never been shy of appointing foreign managers if they fit the bill, and Pochettino’s stock remains high in England.

The Argentine started out at around 13 (12/1) for the England job after Southgate resigned, but drifted from there as other contenders emerged. 

We expect him to start out at similar odds, it not a little higher given his current role with the USMNT. However, should speculation linking him with the job start to emerge, don’t be surprised if those odds fall precipitously.  

Pep Guardiola 

When it comes to football management, Pep Guardiola is arguably the most admired and decorated coach of the modern era.

While the idea of him taking over the England job might seem ambitious or even far-fetched to some, he’s often been mentioned in speculative discussions—especially as his current contract at Manchester City draws closer to its end.

Guardiola’s managerial career began with a bang at Barcelona, where he ushered in a golden era between 2008 and 2012.

In his first season alone, he won the La Liga title, Copa del Rey, and Champions League, completing a historic treble.

With players like Messi, Xavi, and Iniesta at their peak, Guardiola implemented his now-iconic tiki-taka style—possession-based, fluid football that dominated Europe. In total, he won 14 trophies in four seasons at Barça.

After a brief sabbatical, he joined Bayern Munich, where he won three consecutive Bundesliga titles and further refined his tactical philosophy.

Although a Champions League trophy eluded him in Germany, he maintained an exceptional win rate and helped evolve Bayern into a more complete team tactically.

Then came the Manchester City era. Since taking over in 2016, Guardiola has transformed the club into a domestic powerhouse.

He’s won multiple Premier League titles, FA Cups, League Cups, and finally guided City to their first-ever Champions League triumph in 2023, completing a historic treble.

His ability to constantly innovate—whether through inverted full-backs, false nines, or positional play—has kept City at the cutting edge of football.

So, would Pep be a good fit for England?

On paper, absolutely. Guardiola is a master tactician who knows how to win. He has experience working with many of England’s top players—Phil Foden, Jack Grealish, John Stones, and Kyle Walker, to name a few.

His methods are demanding but effective, and his attention to detail could elevate England to the very highest level.

He’s also expressed admiration for the English game and has spent more years managing in England than anywhere else. That familiarity, combined with his deep tactical knowledge, makes him a tantalising prospect for the FA.

However, there are a few caveats. First, Guardiola has always preferred the day-to-day intensity of club football, where he can work with players on a regular basis to fine-tune tactics and systems.

The international calendar, with its limited training time and sporadic fixtures, might not suit his coaching style.

Second, his salary and demands would be among the highest of any manager in the world—something the FA would need to consider seriously.

And third, Guardiola has previously hinted that he might take a break or even retire from management once his time at City is up.

That said, he’s also said he would be open to managing at international level one day—potentially even with England. If that moment aligns with the end of Tuchel’s tenure, and if Pep is still hungry for success, the stars could (just maybe) align.

Last time Guardiola started as a relative outsider at odds of 15.0 (14/1) and higher in the Summer, before being backed into a 2.25 (5/4) favourite by October. 

The Spaniard’s current contract at Man City is due to expire in 2027, so there’s a chance he may consider the England job if it’s available after the next World Cup. If he indicates an interest in the job again, expect his odds to be prohibitively short. 

Otherwise, we would expect his odds to be at a similar level to where they were at the start of the race to replace Southgate – in double digits. 

Jurgen Klopp

Few managers have captured the hearts of English football fans quite like Jürgen Klopp.

Charismatic, passionate, and tactically astute, Klopp is a natural leader whose name is regularly floated when discussing potential England managers—especially now that he has stepped away from club football after a hugely successful spell at Liverpool.

Klopp’s managerial journey began in his native Germany, where he managed Mainz 05 and achieved promotion to the Bundesliga for the first time in the club’s history. His success there led him to Borussia Dortmund, where he truly announced himself on the world stage.

At Dortmund, Klopp built a dynamic and fearless team that broke Bayern Munich’s stranglehold on German football, winning back-to-back Bundesliga titles in 2010–11 and 2011–12.

His side also won the DFB-Pokal and reached the Champions League final in 2013, losing narrowly to Bayern. Known for his “gegenpressing” style—high-intensity pressing and fast transitions—Klopp’s teams became known for their energy, discipline, and unity.

In 2015, he took the reins at Liverpool, and over the next eight years, transformed the club into one of the most feared sides in Europe.

Under his leadership, Liverpool ended their 30-year wait for a Premier League title in 2019–20, won the Champions League in 2019, and collected further silverware including the FA Cup, Carabao Cup, FIFA Club World Cup, and UEFA Super Cup. He also built one of the most exciting front threes in world football in Salah, Mané, and Firmino.

But Klopp’s influence goes beyond trophies. He’s a phenomenal man-manager, someone who builds strong relationships with players and fans alike. His teams are always greater than the sum of their parts—a valuable trait in international football, where building unity and morale is crucial.

So, could Klopp be the man to lead England after Thomas Tuchel?

Well, in terms of profile, he fits the bill perfectly. He’s managed in the Premier League for nearly a decade, understands English football inside out, and has worked with or against virtually every player in the England setup.

He’s also coached key England internationals such as Trent Alexander-Arnold, Jordan Henderson, and Joe Gomez—so integration wouldn’t be an issue.

Klopp has also shown he can thrive under immense pressure and handle the expectations of a demanding fanbase—something England managers know all too well.

There’s one significant hurdle though: Klopp has announced he is taking a break from football after leaving Liverpool in 2024, citing burnout and the need to recharge.

Whether that break turns into a short sabbatical or a long-term retreat from management remains to be seen. Klopp has hinted in the past that international management doesn’t appeal to him as much as the daily rhythm of club football.

However, time off can often change perspectives. If, after a year or two away, Klopp rediscovers his hunger and sees the England job as a new challenge worth taking on, the FA would almost certainly be interested.

The question would be whether Klopp is willing to adapt to the unique demands of international football, which involves less day-to-day coaching but potentially even higher emotional pressure in short bursts.

Last time Klopp started out at odds of around 17.0 (16/1) and whilst he was backed into 9.0 (8/1) at one point, a gamble never really materialised and he drifted out to 21 (20/1) and eventually 81.0 (80/1). 

We imagine there would have to be a clear hint from the German that he was interested in the job for the odds for Klopp to replace Tuchel to be in single digits.

Not least because the FA might be reluctant to replace one German with another – something that may be a bridge too far for some England fans. 

Lee Carsley

Lee Carsley, the England Under-21 head coach, was appointed as interim manager following Southgate’s departure.

His success with the U21 squad, notably leading them to a European Championship victory, positioned him as a strong contender for the permanent role. Carsley’s familiarity with England’s youth system and his rapport with emerging talents made him a logical choice. 

He was backed all the way into 1.05 (1/20) at one stage and looked a racing certainty at that point.

However, despite his interim successes, the FA sought a candidate with extensive senior managerial experience.

Having been passed over last time for Tuchel, we would be surprised if Carsley was amongst the favourites next time and expect his odds to be considerably higher this time. 

Other Contenders

While most of the attention falls on proven elite-level managers, every England manager market has its share of outside bets—those whose names generate buzz despite being less likely candidates.

Among them, high-profile former players like Steven Gerrard, Frank Lampard, and even Zinedine Zidane have all been mentioned as possible future England managers. So, how realistic are their chances?

Steven Gerrard

Once touted as a future England boss in waiting, Steven Gerrard looked on a fast track to the top after an impressive spell at Rangers, where he ended Celtic’s nine-in-a-row dominance by delivering the Scottish Premiership title in 2020–21.

His team went unbeaten in the league that season and showed clear signs of tactical discipline and leadership under his guidance.

That success earned him a shot in the Premier League with Aston Villa, but his time there was far less convincing. He struggled to implement a clear playing style and was dismissed after less than a year in charge.

Gerrard’s next move—to Saudi Arabian side Al-Ettifaq—raised eyebrows and arguably set him back in terms of future England credentials.

While he remains a respected figure in English football and a natural leader, he’ll need to return to European football and rebuild his managerial reputation before being taken seriously as a contender for the national job.

Still, if he does find his footing at club level and builds on his early promise, the FA might be tempted by the narrative of a former England captain leading the Three Lions.

Frank Lampard

Like Gerrard, Frank Lampard was once seen as a rising managerial star. His early work at Derby County, where he led the team to the Championship play-off final in 2019, showcased his man-management skills and attacking philosophy.

This led to a dream job at Chelsea, where he managed to secure a top-four finish and gave debuts to a host of young English players like Mason Mount, Reece James, and Tammy Abraham—a move that aligned with what many consider a key strength for an international manager.

However, his tenure at Chelsea eventually unravelled due to inconsistent results, and short stints at Everton and a caretaker return to Chelsea in 2023 did little to enhance his reputation.

Right now, Lampard would be considered a major outsider for the England job, and like Gerrard, he would need to take on a more successful long-term club project before re-entering the national team conversation.

Zinedine Zidane

And then there’s Zinedine Zidane—a glamorous but unlikely candidate.

Zidane’s credentials are beyond question. As manager of Real Madrid, he won an astonishing three consecutive Champions League titles between 2016 and 2018, alongside two La Liga titles.

He’s known for his calm authority, elite man-management, and ability to handle huge personalities—traits that would suit any international job.

So why is he a longshot for England?

Firstly, Zidane doesn’t speak English fluently, and communication is a crucial part of leading a national side, especially one as media-scrutinised as England. Secondly, he has always seemed more inclined toward managing France, his home nation, should he move into international football.

However, Zidane has been without a job since 2021, and there have been murmurs that he’s open to managing a national team outside France if the project and timing are right.

The England job could, in theory, appeal to him as a fresh challenge with a talented squad. But for now, it feels like a fantasy football pick rather than a realistic next move.

All three of the above were always considers outsiders to replace Southgate with odds often around the 50/1 mark and we wouldn’t be surprised to see something in the betting to replace Tuchel unless something strange happens. 

Implications for England’s Future

Tuchel’s appointment signifies a bold move by the FA, opting for a manager with a blend of international experience and familiarity with English football.

His tenure is anticipated to bring tactical innovation and a fresh perspective to the squad. With the 2026 World Cup on the horizon, Tuchel’s leadership will be crucial in harnessing England’s talent pool and translating potential into tangible success.​

Fans and pundits alike will be keenly observing how Tuchel integrates his philosophies into the team, manages player dynamics, and approaches upcoming competitions.

The hope is that his appointment will usher in a new era of achievement for English football on the international stage.

If he fails to achieve glory with England, we are set for another fascinating betting heat to see who will be appointed Tuchel’s successor.

Former England Managers

​Whoever takes over from Tuchel, they will follow a long list of luminaries to have led the Three Lions over the years. 

Manager	Years	Notable Achievements
Walter Winterbottom	1946–1962	First ever England manager, managed four World Cup campaigns
Alf Ramsey	1963–1974	Won the 1966 World Cup
Don Revie	1974–1977	Disappointing tenure, resigned controversially to take UAE job
Ron Greenwood	1977–1982	Qualified for Euro 1980 and 1982 World Cup
Bobby Robson	1982–1990	Reached 1990 World Cup semi-finals
Graham Taylor	1990–1993	Failed to qualify for 1994 World Cup
Terry Venables	1994–1996	Reached semi-finals of Euro 96 on home soil
Glenn Hoddle	1996–1999	Reached last 16 of 1998 World Cup
Kevin Keegan	1999–2000	Managed England at Euro 2000
Sven-Göran Eriksson	2001–2006	Reached three consecutive tournament quarter-finals
Steve McClaren	2006–2007	Failed to qualify for Euro 2008
Fabio Capello	2008–2012	Strong qualifying campaigns, underwhelming 2010 World Cup
Roy Hodgson	2012–2016	Group stage exit at 2014 World Cup, Euro 2016 shock loss to Iceland
Sam Allardyce	2016	Won one match, resigned after newspaper sting
Gareth Southgate	2016–2024	World Cup semi-final (2018), Euro final (2021), Euro final again in 2024
Thomas Tuchel	2025–Present	Appointed post-Euro 2024 – first non-British manager since Capello

Conclusion

As the Thomas Tuchel era gets underway, the eyes of the nation—and the bookies—are already looking ahead to what might come next.

With England aiming to lift the 2026 World Cup, Tuchel’s success or failure on the world stage will shape the FA’s next move.

Whether it’s a tactical master like Pep Guardiola, a homegrown favourite like Eddie Howe, or an outsider ready to spring a surprise, the race to be the next England manager is set to be every bit as dramatic as the matches themselves.

The next England manager odds will continue to fluctuate as club fortunes rise and fall, international tournaments play out, and new stars emerge on the touchline.

For punters and fans alike, it’s a fascinating market full of potential value—and endless talking points.

One thing’s for sure: the battle for the biggest job in English football is just beginning. And whether you’re betting, speculating, or just along for the ride, there’s plenty more drama to come.

 

What if we told you there’s a football betting market where the odds are often stacked in your favour—but most punters ignore it completely?

Surprisingly, around 25% of football matches end in a draw, yet betting on the draw remains one of the most underused football betting strategies out there.

In this guide, we’ll explore everything you need to know about draw betting in football, including when to bet on a draw, how to get the best odds, and why this overlooked market could be your secret weapon for long-term profits.

Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just starting out, you’ll discover how to turn this undervalued outcome into a potentially profitable football betting strategy.

Why Betting on a Draw Can Be Surprisingly Profitable

Most football punters are naturally drawn to picking a winner—either the home team or the away side. It feels intuitive, emotional, and easier to support. But often, real betting value lies in the draw.

Picture this: a tightly contested match between two evenly matched teams, or a scenario where a draw benefits both sides—like late-season games or two-legged cup ties. These are ideal situations for profitable draw bets.

In fact, in certain leagues, up to one-third of matches end in a draw, making this market far more common than many bettors realise.

How to Maximise Value When Betting on a Draw

When it comes to draw betting, value is everything. To boost your profits, you need to make sure you’re always getting the best odds available.

Use odds comparison sites like Oddschecker or Oddsportal to scan multiple bookmakers quickly. You might also want to check betting exchanges or Asian bookies, where margins can be tighter and prices more competitive.

Even small differences in odds can add up over time, especially if you’re betting regularly—so always shop around before placing your bets.

 

Check out this draw betting tipster with over 100 points profit made, fully verified.

 

Why the Draw Is Often Ignored by Bettors

Despite being one of the three possible outcomes in every football match, the draw is frequently dismissed by the average punter.

Why? Because backing a draw just feels less exciting. People want to cheer for a team to win, not for both teams to cancel each other out. This psychological bias often leads to undervalued odds on draws, creating opportunities for savvy bettors.

Take this real-world example: in a Spanish Super Cup clash between Real Madrid and Athletic Bilbao, over £41,000 was staked on Real Madrid on the Betfair Exchange, compared to just £13,000 on the draw.

Yet Madrid were priced at 1.82, while the draw was at 3.9—offering much higher potential returns. Despite this, most of the money still went on the team to win.

This shows how public bias creates inflated odds on the draw, giving sharp bettors a genuine edge.

 

Where as on the draw, only £13,000 has been matched:

This imbalance means bookmakers often offer slightly inflated odds on draws, knowing fewer people will bet on this outcome.

Savvy bettors can exploit this “draw inflation” to find some excellent value.

 

Get free tips from pro tipsters here.

 

Draw Betting Strategy: The Importance of Stats

If you’re serious about betting on draws, diving into the stats is essential. Some teams and even entire leagues have a higher tendency to produce draws.

For instance, in the 2021 Brazilian Serie A season, 30% of matches ended in a draw—a significant figure compared to other leagues like the German Bundesliga, where only 26% of games finished level.

And there are some teams who have a high propensity for drawing matches.

Here we have the Brazilian league table for the whole season: 

As you can see, Ceara drew an astonishing 17 of their 38 matches – in other words, nearly half of their games! They would be have been a good team to back the draw on over the season. 

Finding Value Bets: Look “Under the Radar”

While some teams might be obvious candidates for a draw, the odds reflect this, often making these bets less lucrative.

Instead, you might find better value by looking at less obvious teams that tend to fly under the radar.

Take Villarreal in the 2020/21 La Liga season, for example:

Villareal drew 13 games—nearly as many as they won—and many of these draws came at home.

They struggled to kill teams off, despite having quality attackers like Gerard Moreno and creative midfielders like Dani Parejo.

You could have got decent odds on the draw for their matches though, particularly in their home games where they were typically fancied by the bookies. 

Often the draw would be priced between 4.0 and 6.0, representing great value for draw backers.

So this is an example of finding value draw bets that may not be the “obvious ones” but actually represent significant value.

However, it’s important to keep an eye on changes within teams, like new managers or key players, as these can affect draw tendencies.

 

Backing the Draw In-Running

One of the smartest ways to boost your football betting profits is by taking advantage of in-play draw betting.

When a team scores early in a match—especially in games between evenly-matched sides—the odds on the draw usually drift significantly. This creates a golden opportunity for savvy punters to jump in and grab high-value draw odds.

Let’s break it down:

• If a favourite scores early, the draw odds will often shoot up to 4.0 or even 4.5.

• But if the underdog starts piling on the pressure, you may be staring at a textbook setup for a profitable in-play draw bet.

• These scenarios offer excellent value—especially when the trailing side looks likely to equalise.

Tools to Help You Spot the Right Moment

To make the most of live draw betting opportunities, it helps to monitor several matches at once. Tools like the In-Play Trading Scanner allow you to track live stats across dozens of games, alerting you when one team is dominating or pushing for an equaliser.

Alternatively, use live score platforms like Flashscore or Sofascore, which offer real-time data on possession, shots, attacks, and more. These indicators can help you identify matches where a draw is becoming more likely.

Why This Strategy Can Be So Profitable

Here’s the exciting part: if the equaliser comes late—especially in the final moments of stoppage time—your profit can be huge.

For example, backing the draw at odds of 4.0, and then seeing it drop to 1.9 or lower after an equaliser, gives you the chance to cash out for a guaranteed profit—sometimes close to 300% returns on your stake.

That’s the power of live football betting on the draw: high odds, fast-changing dynamics, and opportunities for big wins with the right timing.

 

Conclusion – Making the Most of Draw Betting

Draw betting is a powerful yet often overlooked strategy in football wagering. With the right research, timing, and a solid understanding of team dynamics, it offers real potential for long-term profits.

Whether you’re identifying pre-match value or capitalising on live in-play opportunities, betting on the draw can be a smart, data-driven approach to gaining an edge.

As always, bet responsibly, stay disciplined, and only stake what you’re comfortable losing.

Here’s to making smarter bets—and turning the draw into your secret weapon for success!

Looking for the best football tipsters on the planet? Well check out full guide here.

 

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Yes, they absolutely could. And in the words of the banner placed behind the goal at the recent UEFA Champions League game against Real Madrid: ‘Stop crying your heart out,’ City fans.

It’s ironic they placed the sign behind the goal to poke the Real Madrid bear and then lost—and that’s a common theme this year: Manchester City losing.

What a game it was, though. If you didn’t watch the first leg of the UCL game against Real Madrid, the second clash is Wednesday, 19th of February, at 8 pm and is well worth watching.

Will it be one of their final UCL games, or will they make it into the 25/26 UCL? Read on to find out.

It’s Not Looking Good…

The top four teams in the Premier League make it into the UCL. Manchester City is sitting in that fourth position, closely followed by Bournemouth, sitting just one point behind City. And with a recent loss to Real Madrid in the UCL, morale must be sinking at the Etihad.

Even Pep Guardiola did a recent press conference stating he doesn’t think he’s good enough to pull City out of the slump they’re in.

What do you think? Despite the Madrid crushing last-minute win, City came out on top to dominate Newcastle with a 4-0 win, but it’s the games that are coming that count.

You’ve got the second half of the UCL clash with Madrid straight into a battle against Liverpool and then Tottenham. For the UCL clash, would you bet on 10bet Sports Betting in South Africa for Madrid or City to win?

With Liverpool’s dominant season, Bournemouth could take that 4th spot this weekend.

Manchester City UCL History

City has had consistent participation in the tournaments under Pep Guardiola’s management, with deep runs into the knockout stages and typically until the end. And it was fate they’d meet Real Madrid in the knockout stages for the 4th year running.

Still, this year, even Pep is doubting himself, sharing his thoughts about his capabilities at a recent press conference. When you go from winning the treble to the odds not looking in your favor for any trophies, we’d think that way too.

Unfortunately, their performances in the group phase have not always been the best and now they’re in the difficult playoff spot, like Madrid.

The fresh phase of the UCL league has added additional hurdles. Unlike the past formats where City had the luxury of blindly skating through a normal group stage followed by knockout rounds, they’ve not had the best UCL performances.

What’s Happening This Season?

What is the actual problem for Manchester City? A nasty cocktail of poor form, injuries, and games crammed into an unreasonably tight schedule has caused chaos. Just recently, Jack Grealish limped off.

They started the season in a good spot, but their loss to Tottenham in the EFL Cup was a turning point. After that, results have been all over the place. While there are some dominant wins under the belt, like the 4-0 destruction of Newcastle, the general pattern of inconsistency is worrying.

According to Pep Guardiola, the team is underperforming, which is something he has admitted openly.

Squad depth is sliding into the black hole of factors. City’s midfield has not been effective in controlling some crucial matches, and Kevin De Bruyne’s long-term injury earlier in the season didn’t help matters at all.

Their UCL troubles couldn’t have been worse timing.

How Does UCL Qualifying Work?

The new 36-team league format has stepped up the game even more.

In the Premier League, unlike other leagues, the top four teams still receive automatic qualification. However, the progression from the group stages is based on ranking in the Champions League, which means City’s position currently sits at 22nd which is close to elimination. If they lose against Madrid on Wednesday, they say goodbye to the UCL.

One important detail is that the teams placed between 9th and 24th position go through a two-leg playoff to qualify for the last 16. If City sinks deeper, they won’t be able to contend at all.

Can City Turn It Around?

There is still a small window for City to save their dismal season, but they cannot afford to waste time. The fixtures against Liverpool and Tottenham will show us where City will likely finish the season.

Two big losses like that and maybe their 25/26 UCL hopes are over. If the team is able to get on a positive run of form, they can make the season cut for the top four in the Premier League and the UCL playoffs.

Pep Guardiola has been in tough situations before, and if any manager can turn things around, it is him.

Is it really possible for Manchester City to not qualify for the Champions League? It’s looking that way. The threats are huge, so let’s see what happens across the next few games.

 

Have you ever placed a bet based on a football prediction, only to see it fail spectacularly?

Well, if you are a passionate sports fan you probably have and are aware that following accurate football predictions can be useful but still does not guarantee anything. 

Academic studies on sports pundits show that expert prediction accuracy is around 50% on the Premier League.

At the same time, AI/statistical models claim accuracy rates of 60-70% but struggle in unpredictable seasons such as Leicester City’s Premier League title in the 2015-16 season or Morocco’s deep 2022 FIFA World Cup run.

So the real question is how to get the best results in sports betting using all available methods such as expert analyses, algorithms, and human intuition.

The Basics of Football Predictions

Football prediction is a method used in sports betting, to predict the outcome of football matches.

When making a football prediction, there are multiple factors taken into consideration such as team form, injuries, and head-to-head stats, so predicting a sport as unpredictable as football is a huge challenge.

There are specialized platforms such as Tips.GG football predictions that provide accurate football predictions. The popularity of such resources is growing significantly as former players, TV pundits, and journalists use their expertise to provide football predictions. 

The expansion of AI has brought in additional algorithms and new statistical categories like expected goals (xG) that are available both before the game starts and once the action is live. 

As always, sports bettors rely on their gut feelings, passion-driven guesses, but the search for the best football bets can mislead them.

What Makes Football So Hard to Predict?

Have you ever felt that you are so close to a major win in sports betting but for some reason, it always slips away?

Well, every sports bettor has a list of such moments, whether it is a refereeing decision, a freakish goal, or just a small detail that we thought would never happen. 

For example, who could have ever thought that Denmark would win the 1992 EURO as they failed to even qualify for the tournament, or that Manchester United would win the 1999 UEFA Champions League as they were 1-0 down going into stoppage time?

Looking back on recent history, Borussia Dortmund could have won the Bundesliga in 2023 and ended the decade-long Bayern Munich dominance if they just beat Mainz on the last match day.

Regardless of the fact that the title was on the line for Borussia and there was nothing to win for Mainz, the game ended 2-2 leaving all football bettors in disbelief.

There are many cases when it comes to the human factor. Teams can overperform or underperform based on emotions, pressure, or off-field issues.

External factors like weather conditions, injuries, or the fans can impact the outcome, and at the end of the day, that is what makes football so interesting. 

How Accurate Are Different Prediction Models?

Experienced sports bettors may remember the days when online betting predictions did not exist. It all came down to your own expertise, hand-made stats sheets, a keen eye and a gut feeling to make a winning bet.

Today, studies show that fans overestimate their team’s chances by up to 20%, so bettors definitely can use some help to increase their winning percentage.

In that case, who do we trust more than those who have played the game? Some former players are presenters on TV shows, online podcasts, and social media providing their knowledge and expertise and often providing insights that an average sports bettor does not have access to.

Following these is fun, but at the end of the day, these experts are only human and just like us, have their own personal preferences. Given all that, expert football pundits only successfully predict half of Premier League games, which seems like anybody could do.

In order to increase this percentage, sports bettors are turning to AI statistical models. Algorithms like FiveThirtyEight or betting odds models often claim a higher accuracy of around 70% but can still fail due to random events.

The best example of the underperformance of AI predictions was during the chaotic season of the COVID-19 disruptions. The games were played without spectators, many players were sidelined by the virus and the others did not have the same resources to prepare for the games.

So, no matter which model you prefer to use, none of them can perfectly account for all variables, and accuracy is often situational.

The Role of Betting Odds

The betting odds are based on statistical models but adjusted for market behavior. They are a good reflection of probabilities but are not guarantees.

Many bettors especially when they begin, follow the odds, but if sports betting was that easy, we would all win. The point is to find the right bets for decent odds and aim to achieve a successful return in the long run. 

Can Predictions Improve?

No betting methods guarantee a win but a combination of the advantages of every single one of them may be the right strategy.

AI and machine learning are refining the prediction process but still face limitations like data gaps or unforeseen factors. Human intuition is the basis of betting but sometimes guides us in the wrong direction. 

At the end of the day, we should enjoy the unpredictability of football rather than over-relying on predictions. After all, isn’t the unpredictability what makes the game beautiful?